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The Opener: SP Market, Coaching Staffs, MLBTR Chat

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As the early days of the offseason continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Is more movement on the starting pitching market on the way?

News broke of the winter’s first major signing yesterday when the Angels reportedly agreed to a three-year deal with veteran southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi, 33, ranked as the #12 free agent available on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. The southpaw sports a 3.96 ERA (105 ERA+) and 3.78 FIP over the past two seasons, placing him among the many mid-rotation arms in this winter’s class. It would hardly be a surprise if the Kikuchi deal represented the floodgates opening on significant signings. Last year, Aaron Nola re-signed with the Phillies to kick off the starting pitching market and fellow top-tier righty Sonny Gray followed by signing with the Cardinals just one week later.

One potential wrinkle with this year’s class, however, is the relatively small number of pitchers who are similar to Kikuchi in terms of overall effectiveness while remaining unencumbered by a qualifying offer. Nathan Eovaldi and Jack Flaherty are perhaps the closest comparisons overall, though Eovaldi’s age could limit his market while Flaherty’s youth and upside figures to expand his own. Hurlers like Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, and Luis Severino compare reasonably with Kikuchi but are attached to draft pick compensation, while Andrew Heaney and Matthew Boyd are unencumbered like Kikuchi but are generally considered to be in the tier below him.

2. Will more teams finalize their coaching staffs?

Yesterday saw the Orioles finalize their coaching staff for 2025, including the announcement of former big league catcher Robinson Chirinos as their new bench coach. The Red Sox finalized their staff late last week, accompanied by the announcement of José Flores as the club’s new first base coach. With December just over the horizon and the free agent market starting to heat up, will more clubs begin to announce finalized coaching staffs for next year in the coming days? Some clubs still appear to be finalizing their coaching hires, as the Mariners are reportedly poised to hire Kevin Seltzer as their next hitting coach while teams like the Brewers, Cubs, and Marlins still have positions that need to be filled.

3. MLBTR Chat today:

With the non-tender deadline in the rearview mirror and the winter’s first major free agent signing in the books, the 2024-25 offseason has begun to ramp up. Whether you have questions about who your favorite team will be targeting this winter, or a trade proposal in the back of your mind, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for noon CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Mariners To Hire Kevin Seitzer As Hitting Coach

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The Mariners plan to hire Kevin Seitzer as hitting coach, reports Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. Edgar Martinez, who finished last season in that capacity, will remain with the M’s in an overarching role. Kramer writes that Seitzer will report to Martinez, so it seems the franchise icon is still the team’s lead hitting voice. Martinez is not expected to regularly travel with the team on road trips, though he’ll be involved at Spring Training and during the majority of the club’s home games. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times tweets that Martinez’s official title will be senior director of hitting strategy.

Additionally, Kramer reports that the M’s are hiring Bobby Magallanes as assistant hitting coach. The 55-year-old spent the last four seasons working under Seitzer as an assistant hitting coach with the Braves.

Seitzer brings two decades of hitting coach experience to Dan Wilson’s staff. He’d worked in that capacity with the Diamondbacks, Royals and Blue Jays before being hired by the Braves during the 2014-15 offseason. Seitzer spent 10 seasons as Atlanta’s hitting coach. The Braves have been contenders for most of that stretch.

The development of Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II into star players has obviously been an instrumental part of the Braves’ success. Seitzer was fortunate to work with a lot of talented hitters, but he certainly deserves some amount of credit for overseeing a lineup that trails only the Dodgers in scoring over the last five seasons.

Still, the 2024 campaign was a mixed bag. The Braves’ offense floundered for a few months after Acuña’s season-ending knee injury. They finished the year 15th in scoring with a .243/.309/.415 team batting line. They were in the top 10 in slugging but right in the middle in both batting average and on-base percentage. That was below expectation for a team with as much star power as the Braves possess. Atlanta fired Seitzer, Magallanes, and catching coach Sal Fasano shortly after being eliminated from the playoffs.

It’s the latest shakeup to Seattle’s hitting infrastructure. The Mariners have struggled for years to field even a league average offense, which would probably be sufficient to get to the postseason given the strength of their starting pitching. The M’s hired Brant Brown as offensive coordinator last offseason. They fired him two months into the season in an effort to spark the lineup. That didn’t work, and the M’s dismissed hitting coach Jarret DeHart along with skipper Scott Servais three months later. Assistant hitting coach Tommy Joseph left the team at the end of the season to take the same position with the Orioles.

Martinez joined the staff when his longtime teammate Wilson signed on as manager. He had previously been reluctant to assume a full-time coaching position because of family considerations. It seems they’ve settled on an unconventional role that’ll allow Martinez to remain actively involved without spending much time away from Seattle.

White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Luis Robert Jr.

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Much of the focus on the White Sox’ trade efforts this offseason will center around Garrett Crochet, and with good reason — he’s the top starting pitcher who’s readily available on the market. However, heading into the 2024 campaign, it was Luis Robert Jr. who was seen as Chicago’s potential top prize at the deadline. Another slate of injuries ruined the talented but fragile center fielder’s ’24 campaign and further added to his reputation as an injury-prone player. The Sox are still hoping to move Robert, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today, but one rival general manager tells Nightengale that Chicago’s asking price is simply unrealistic, given all of the health concerns surrounding Robert.

“You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along,” that GM said. “But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.”

It’s understandable that the Sox would be reluctant to sell low on Robert. He’s among the most talented players in the sport when healthy — he just simply hasn’t been healthy for the majority of his career. Robert has had six IL placements dating back to the 2021 season, many of which sidelined him for significant periods of time. A hip flexor strain in 2021 sidelined him for more than three months. He missed more than two months this past season owing to the same injury. Robert has also been shelved for a wrist sprain, an MCL sprain, and a more ominous viral infection in 2022 that resulted in blurred vision, dizziness and lightheadedness.

That massive slate of injuries looked to have taken its toll on Robert this past season. He landed on the injured list just a week into the season and returned in June but never really found his footing. Robert hit five homers in his first 36 plate appearances upon activation — but he only collected one other hit in that time. He tallied 396 plate appearances post-injury in 2024 and slashed just .225/.281/.370 with a 32% strikeout rate.

Clearly, that’s not the type of production that’s going to generate interest in a player who’s owed a $15MM salary next season. However, from 2021-23, Robert slashed a combined .287/.331/.511 with 63 homers and 37 steals in just 1292 plate appearances. He played plus-plus defense in center field along the way; despite playing only 301 games in that three-year span, Robert tallied 21 Outs Above Average — good for 12th among all major league outfielders. That strong run was headlined by a 2023 campaign — Robert’s age-25 season — during which he hit .264/.315/.542 and popped 38 home runs in a career-high 595 trips to the plate. Robert made the All-Star team, won a Silver Slugger, and drew some downballot MVP votes.

That’s the type of upside any team would be hoping to land when acquiring Robert. Unfortunately, while his per-game and per-inning performance in 2021-23 was excellent, that 2023 season is the only one in which Robert has exceeded 425 plate appearances. He’s appeared in only 65.9% of possible games in his five-year run with the White Sox.

Robert’s 2024 season wasn’t without its silver linings. His average sprint speed, per Statcast, ticked up to 28.8 feet per second — the second-best mark of his career. He’d been down at a still-strong but not-elite 27.9 ft/sec the first time he dealt with a hip flexor strain. His speed bounced back more this time around. And while his defensive grades dipped, that was largely due to some errant throws. Statcast still rated Robert’s range quite strongly. He also sat in the 84th percentile of MLB hitters in bat speed and typically hit the ball hard (90.1 mph average exit velocity, 40.6% hard-hit rate) when he made contact. He just didn’t make contact enough (career-worst 32.8% strikeout rate).

Robert’s contract pays him $15MM next year. There are a pair of matching $20MM club options for the 2026 and 2027 seasons on the deal. Getting the 2021-23 version of Robert for the next three seasons at a combined $55MM would be a steal, even if he spent about one-third of that time on the injured list, as he did in ’21-’23. (Both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs agree Robert was worth about 10.5 WAR during that run, even with the missed time.)

The problem for interested teams, of course, is that there’s no guarantee he’ll get back to that level of play. Taking a one-year, $15MM flier is probably appealing to many outfield-needy clubs, particularly with the pair of club options looming. Taking on that salary and surrendering top-tier prospects is another story entirely. From the White Sox’ vantage point, trading Robert to simply clear $15MM in guaranteed money would be foolhardy. They barely have any money on the books, with an estimated payroll in the $75MM range, per RosterResource. That’s half their 2024 payroll. Selling low on Robert and watching him bounce back to stardom elsewhere would be agonizing for the Sox and their fans.

It all makes Robert a very difficult player to trade this winter. The Sox have no urgency to shed the relatively small amount that remains on his contract. Other clubs surely feel there’s little sense in trading top-tier prospects for an oft-injured player coming off a 100-game season that was the least-productive stint of his career.

The likeliest outcome would seem to be a midseason trade. If Robert bounces back, the Sox can put him back on the block and effectively market two-plus years of his services. If he continues to struggle, they could move him for a light return, knowing the eventual likelihood was that his option would be bought out anyhow. Perhaps a team could throw caution to the wind and make a surprisingly strong offer for him in the near future, but that seems unlikely. The Sox did move Dylan Cease in spring training when his Cactus League performance quieted some concerns about a pedestrian 2023 season, so it’s possible a big spring from Robert could garner some attention. In all likelihood, though, he seems ticketed to remain on the Sox to open the season, and clubs around the game will keep a close eye on his early performance. If he shows well in April, Chicago GM Chris Getz could follow in Miami counterpart Peter Bendix’s footsteps and make Robert available in late April/early May — as the Marlins did with Luis Arraez.

KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes Sign Kenny Rosenberg

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The Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization announced their trio of foreign-born players for the 2025 season. The Heroes signed outfielders Yasiel Puig ($1MM) and Ruben Cardenas ($450K salary with $150K in incentives) and left-hander Kenny Rosenberg ($700K salary with $100K in incentives). The deals were relayed (on X) by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net.

Rosenberg is the only one of the trio who appeared in the majors in 2024. The 29-year-old southpaw pitched in seven games for the Angels, allowing an even 6.00 ERA across 24 innings. It was the third straight season in which Rosenberg made a handful of appearances for the Halos. He worked as a depth option for the rotation or low-leverage relief and combined for a 4.66 mark over 67 2/3 frames.

Los Angeles released Rosenberg within the first few days of the offseason. This will be the first overseas stint for the Cal State Northridge product. Rosenberg had previously split his eight-year professional career between the Rays and Angels organizations. He has a solid Triple-A track record. Over parts of five seasons at the top minor league level, he carries a 4.10 ERA while striking out a quarter of opposing hitters.

Puig hasn’t appeared in the majors since 2019. He played the 2022 season in Korea with the Heroes. Puig spent the ’24 campaign in Mexico. Cardenas spent most of this this year in Triple-A. He divided his time between the Rays’ and Phillies’ systems but didn’t get a big league call. He signed with the KBO’s Samsung Lions late in the year but only made seven appearances. The Cal State Fullerton product should get a more significant opportunity for the Heroes.

Guardians Re-Sign George Valera To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians announced they’ve brought back former top outfield prospect George Valera on a minor league deal. He’ll get an invite to big league Spring Training as a non-roster player.

Valera, 24, was a notable international amateur signee back in 2017. He raked in the low minors and got to Double-A at age 20. Valera’s offensive promise made him one of Cleveland’s most touted minor leaguers. He landed in the back half of Baseball America’s overall Top 100 prospects entering both 2022 and ’23. The Guardians made the easy call to put him on the 40-man roster after the ’21 season rather than expose him to the Rule 5 draft.

The left-handed hitter’s stock has dropped significantly over the past couple years. While Valera had an impressive age-21 season at Double-A, he hasn’t carried that over to the top minor league level. Over parts of three seasons with Triple-A Columbus, he owns a middling .229/.336/.424 batting line. He has walked at a strong 13.5% clip but gone down on strikes in 26.7% of his 865 Triple-A plate appearances.

A litany of injuries hasn’t done him any favors. Valera has missed time with hamstring issues and underwent surgery to repair a hamate fracture in his right hand over the 2022-23 offseason. His ’24 campaign was cut short in September, as he injured his right knee and required patellar tendon surgery. That came with at least a six-month recovery timeline, so his availability for Spring Training games is in question.

Cleveland no longer felt they could carry that profile on their 40-man roster. They designated Valera for assignment last week as they added four players to the roster to ensure they wouldn’t lose them in the Rule 5 draft. The non-tender deadline allowed the Guards to cut Valera loose without putting him on waivers. He had a few days to gauge the market but seemingly didn’t find any team springing to offer him a 40-man spot. Valera returns to the only organization he’s known but will need to play his way back onto the roster as he tries to reach the majors.

Phillies Interested In Alex Bregman, Willy Adames

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Last week, it was reported by Matt Gelb of The Athletic that the Phils were giving some thought to trading outfielder Nick Castellanos, infielder Alec Bohm, prospect Justin Crawford or left-hander Ranger Suárez as they look to shake up their roster. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports along similar lines, noting that the club is making Bohm available and is expected to look to free agents Alex Bregman or Willy Adames if they succeed in trading Bohm.

As the Phils look to make some changes, they only have so many avenues. Many of their position players are expensive veterans who are entrenched on the roster, either due to their performance, their contracts or both.

Bohm, on the other hand, is still in his arbitration years, slated for free agency after 2026. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8.1MM next year and Bohm would be due another raise for 2026.

On top of that, his performance has been more good than great. To this point in his career, he has a batting line of .277/.327/.416. That translates to a 103 wRC+, indicating he’s been 3% better than the league average hitter. He did have a 115 wRC+ in 2024, but in lopsided fashion, with a 128 in the first half and a 90 in the second. Also, most of his damage has been done with the platoon advantage. He has a career 135 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a subpar 91 wRC+ against righties.

Defensively, he hasn’t been great overall, though he has shown signs of improvement. Defensive Runs Saved gave him a grade of -46 over the first four years of his career but then had him at league average in 2024. Outs Above Average had Bohm in negative territory from 2020 to 2022 but slightly better than par in the past two years.

Overall, he’s been a useful player but something below a star, and either Bregman or Adames could be seen as a clear upgrade. Bregman has hit .272/.366/.483 in his career for a 135 wRC+ and has been a considered a strong defender at third base to boot. Adames has hit .248/.322/.444 for a 109 wRC+ in his career while providing strong shortstop defense, but he’s reportedly willing to move to other infield positions. Most shortstops are capable of moving to other spots on the infield fairly smoothly, so it’s possible the Phils would expect Adames to provide better glovework than Bohm, even though it would be a new position for him.

Enacting these moves would have complications. Bohm’s modest projected salary is far less than what Bregman or Adames are likely to earn on their respective contracts. MLBTR predicted Bregman for $182MM and Adames  for $160MM over six years, both for average annual values in the $26-27MM range.

The payroll could be a notable story for the Phils this offseason. Chairman John Middleton has said he expects payroll to go up but it already has, in a way. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $263MM next year, which is $15MM higher than 2024 before they’ve even made any moves.

Their $282MM competitive balance tax number is already projected to be above the third tier of penalization. As a third-time payor, that means they are already looking at a 95% tax on any money they add up to the final line of $301MM. Anything they add beyond that line would have a 110% tax rate.

Swapping in Bregman or Adames for Bohm would make those numbers go up but it seems the Phils have at least some hope of making up the difference elsewhere. Nightengale notes that they have tried to use Bohm and Crawford to pry Garrett Crochet loose from the White Sox. Crochet had a massive breakout in 2024, tossing 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run average, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

That performance will make Crochet very popular on the trade market, but so will his salary. Since he spent the early parts of his career either injured or working out of the bullpen, he’s only projected for a $2.9MM salary in 2025, with one more arb pass after that. The Phils have a strong rotation with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Suárez and Taijuan Walker, but Walker has fallen out of favor with the club, getting kicked to the bullpen for a time in 2024. Andrew Painter could be a factor in 2025 but he’s a big unknown since he still hasn’t made his major league debut and is coming back from a long Tommy John surgery layoff.

It would obviously be a wonderful series of chess moves if the Phillies could use Bohm to add a cheap ace to their rotation, perhaps finding a way to unload the two years and $36MM left on Walker’s contract, and then use the cost savings to get a star like Bregman or Adames to replace Bohm at third.

However, doing all of that would require the agreement of other teams. Bohm’s trade value won’t be that high on account of his aforementioned deficiencies. Nightengale adds that the Sox are worried by Bohm’s performance in the second half of 2024. He also wouldn’t have much value to the Sox anyway, since his control window is so short. After Chicago’s record-breaking loss tally in 2024, it’s hard to envision them return to contention in Bohm’s two remaining years of club control. The Phils might have to include some more prospect talent to get a deal done, which they might not want to do right now, given how much of the roster is filled with expensive veterans.

A far simpler outcome for Bregman would just be to re-sign with the Astros, where he has spent his entire career so far. It’s a far simpler fit and the two sides seemingly have had mutual interest in signing a new deal for years, but nothing has come together thus far.

It seems there might be a bit of a gap in terms of the financials, with Nightengale reporting that Houston wants Bregman back on a deal of about $156MM over six years but Bregman is looking to get to the $200MM line. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that the Astros have made an offer to Bregman. It’s unknown what they put on the table but the fact that he hasn’t yet accepted it suggests that it wasn’t up to his expectations. General manager Dana Brown has suggested the club might need to be creative with the budget this offseason but owner Jim Crane has suggested there’s money available for the right players and all signs have pointed to Bregman being the club’s highest priority.

Bregman has also been connected to the Tigers and Red Sox in the past week, with the latter club considering a move to first base for Rafael Devers, in order to accommodate Bregman. Adames has also been connected to the Red Sox, in addition to the Astros, Atlanta, Blue Jays and Giants. Both players rejected qualifying offers and would be subject to associated penalties, unless they re-sign with their respective 2024 clubs.

For the Phils, since they paid the CBT in 2024, they would have to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as their second- and fifth-best picks in the upcoming draft if they sign a player that rejected a qualifying offer. The Astros wouldn’t forfeit anything, apart from the compensation pick they stand to receive if Bregman goes elsewhere, which would come after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

KBO’s Samsung Lions Re-Sign Lewin Díaz, Denyi Reyes

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The Samsung Lions of the KBO League announced that they have re-signed first baseman Lewin Díaz and right-hander Denyi Reyes, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net and Jiheon Pae (X link). Díaz will get a $100K signing bonus, a $500K salary and $200K of incentives while Reyes gets a $200K signing bonus, $700K salary and $300K of incentives.

Díaz, now 28, was a very popular player during his time in North America, though without getting an extended big league opportunity. He started his major league career with the Marlins but only got limited looks in the three years from 2020 to 2022.

Having exhausted his options after that stretch, his grip on his roster spot became tenuous and he was designated for assignment by the Fish. Before the 2023 season started, he went to the Pirates, Orioles, Atlanta and Orioles again via waivers or cash trades. The O’s did eventually run him through waivers and didn’t call him up in 2023.

In general, Díaz has performed well everywhere except the majors. He hit .181/.227/.340 in his brief looks in the big leagues but had a much nicer line of .258/.340/.479 at the Triple-A level over the 2021-2023 seasons. He is also considered a strong defender at first base, so that made for an intriguing combination, likely why he kept getting so much attention.

He went to the Mexican League in 2024 and put up a huge slash of .376/.452/.647 in 75 games there. He then got a deal with the Lions in the middle of August, with a strong .282/.331/.518 line in 29 games in Korea, seemingly enough to convince the Lions to bring him back.

Reyes, now 28, was a similarly fringe roster player during his time in the affiliated ball. He got to make three appearances for the 2022 Orioles and then got into nine games for the 2023 Mets, posting a 6.26 earned run average in his 27 1/3 innings.

He posted some intriguing rate stats in the minors but was victimized by the long ball. From 2021 to 2023, he threw 209 1/3 innings on the farm with a 21.4% strikeout rate that was close to average and 5.7% walk rate that was quite strong. But thanks to 47 balls leaving the yard in that time, he had a 5.59 ERA.

Reyes signed with the Lions going into 2024 and went on to have a solid year, with the groundball-heavy league seeming to be a good fit for him. He logged 144 innings over 26 starts with a 3.81 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate, 62.3% ground ball rate and 15 homers allowed. The Lions were evidently pleased with that performance and will bring him back for 2025.

Both players are still relatively young and could try to return to MLB in the future if they continue to have good results overseas, as players like Erick Fedde or Eric Thames have done. For now, they will lock in some decent money that’s in the vicinity of the MLB minimum, which will be $760K next year.

MLBTR TikTok Focus Group

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This website is 19 years old.  I am the owner of the site, and I’m 42 years old.  I have two teenage children and another who is 12, and they have helped me realize that MLB Trade Rumors might benefit from having a presence on TikTok.

I’ve played around with TikTok recently and understand the basic idea, but it’s not an app I would use naturally.  So before launching an MLB Trade Rumors account, I’d like to talk to people who use TikTok regularly.

We are looking for 12 people for a focus group who meet these criteria:

  • Available to join a Zoom call on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time
  • Use TikTok regularly
  • Use this website/app regularly
  • Would like to help us out by answering my questions for an hour.  Generally I am trying to figure out what an entertaining and/or informative MLBTR TikTok account would look like and what you’d like to see.

If you’d like to participate, please enter your email address into this Google Form.  I will select roughly a dozen people at random from that list to participate in a one-hour TikTok/MLB Trade Rumors discussion over Zoom on Wednesday December 4th at 7pm central time.

I assume more than 12 people will add their email, but I think a larger group would be hard to manage for an open discussion.  All who enter their email will be added to a list where I may send emails about future TikTok focus groups or surveys (your email will not be used for any other purpose).

A few quick notes on this topic:

  • I’m not sure we’ll be launching an MLB Trade Rumors TikTok, but I’m leaning toward it.
  • The possibility of TikTok being shut down in the U.S. likely won’t affect my decision, because we’d be cross-posting to YouTube Shorts.
  • This account would not be run by a current member of the MLBTR writing staff.  We would hold a separate hiring process for this, but I’m not ready to do that yet.

Blue Jays Interested In Anthony Santander, Corbin Burnes

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The Blue Jays are interested free agent outfielder Anthony Santander, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Nightengale also mentions that the club is pursuing top pitchers like Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. The club has previously been connected to top free agent starters such as Fried and Blake Snell in recent weeks, so Burnes being on the list as well is aligned with those interests.

The connection with Santander is a sensible one. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco predicted the Jays to sign Santander when our Top 50 Free Agents list came out earlier this month. The Jays are a sensible fit for an outfielder and a potent bat, two boxes that would be checked by Santander.

Right now, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho as the two established big leaguers in their outfield. Varsho underwent shoulder surgery in September and it’s possible that he’ll miss the opening of the 2025 season. Springer is now 35 years old and has seen his wRC+ decline for five straight years now. He had a 155 wRC+ in 2019 but that number has gone to 143, 140, 133, 104 and 95 in recent years.

In addition to those two, the Jays have plenty of other theoretical options to take playing time on the turf. Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider, Addison Barger and Steward Berroa are all outfield options on the 40-man roster, but there’s not much certainty there. Schneider is the only one with more than 81 big league games on his track record and he’s coming off a frustrating season. In short, there’s plenty of room for the Jays to make an external addition.

More broadly, some home run pop would be welcome in the lineup. The Jays were middle of the pack in terms of wRC+ and on-base percentage in 2024 but were 26th in the majors in terms of home runs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox. Only six guys on the club got to double digits with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. the only Blue Jay to get to 20 dingers on the year.

Santander can certainly provide that power, having just hit 44 home runs this past year. With 105 homers over the past three seasons, he’s sixth in the majors for that time frame behind star sluggers Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. The Jays have a bunch of key contributors who hit from the right side, such as Guerrero, Springer, Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, so Santander’s switch-hitting ability likely adds to the appeal. He’s not a great defender but he’s slashed .244/.317/.478 over the past three years for a 124 wRC+ and the Jays don’t have a full-time designated hitter, which could allow them to limit the downside of his glovework.

It seems fair to conclude that Santander would be a fallback plan in the event the Jays don’t succeed in landing Juan Soto. The Jays are one of the clubs still plausibly in the mix for Soto, with offers expected to come in this week.

Soto ticks a lot of the same boxes as Santander, as he’s a lefty-swinging outfielder with power, but he’s the more attractive free agent for a few reasons. Soto is far younger, as he is now 26 while Santander is 30. Soto’s elite eye at the plate is also in a different stratosphere compared to Santander. Soto’s 18.8% walk rate in his career is roughly double a normal league average and higher than his 17% strikeout rate. Santander, meanwhile, takes a free pass at a subpar 7.3% clip.

Based on those differences, Soto is going to be Plan A for a lot of clubs, who will then view Santander as a potential safety alongside other free agent outfielders like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar and others. While MLBTR predicted Soto for a $600MM guarantee, Santander was projected for a deal of $80MM over four years, obviously far more affordable.

Santander has been connected to the Yankees this winter as one of many players the Yanks could turn to if they don’t get Soto and the Jays likely view their situation similarly. Soto is widely expected to secure a record-breaking contract of some kind, so teams will naturally want to assess their payroll ledgers and consider the domino effects of such a contract before pivoting to other moves.

On the pitching side, the Jays have been connected to a few starting pitchers already, as mentioned. The Jays have a veteran front three in their rotation, with Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt all under contract for 2025. Bowden Francis seems to have earned a rotation gig with his strong second half in 2024. Candidates for the fifth spot include Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss, but Rodríguez also has plenty of relief experience and could be in the bullpen. Bloss still has options and limited experience, not having thrown much in the majors nor the minors.

Adding a pitcher like Fried or Snell or Burnes would obviously strengthen the group. Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five years, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant over the past two. From 2020 to 2022, he had a 2.62 earned run average, 33.4% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 47.6% ground ball rate. In the two most recent seasons, it’s been a 3.15 ERA, with his strikeout rate falling to 24.3%.

That’s a bit of a concern but Burnes is still arguably the top pitcher available in free agency this offseason. MLBTR predicted Burnes for $200MM over seven years, with Snell at $160MM over five and Fried at $156MM over six.

There are many ways it could play out but it seems the Jays are setting their sights high after missing out on Ohtani last winter and then having a disappointing season in 2024. It’s also been suggested that the Jays could be quite aggressive this offseason since there are a few potential pivot points coming up. Guerrero, Bichette and Bassitt are all slated for free agency for 2025, while team president Mark Shapiro and manager John Schneider are each going into the final years of their respective deals as well. General manager Ross Atkins is under contract through 2026 though it’s been suggested that he may be under pressure to deliver in the upcoming season in order to stick around.

The Jays had an Opening Day payroll of $225MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, with RosterResource currently projecting them for $189MM in 2025. Shapiro had previously said he didn’t expect the club’s payroll to significantly increase or decrease relative to 2024, so the Jays could have something in the vicinity of $35MM to spend this offseason on a notable free agent.

Some reporting, including from Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, has pointed to ownership perhaps having a Soto and non-Soto budget. The club was apparently willing to go to greater financial extremes to sign Ohtani last winter but didn’t end up redistributing that money to other players after he signed with the Dodgers. Similarly, the payroll ceiling could be moved up to accommodate a Soto deal but not otherwise.

Regardless of how much money they end up spending this winter, draft pick forfeiture will be another cost the club will have to consider. Each of Soto, Burnes, Fried and Santander rejected a qualifying offer, as did other potential targets like Hernández or Willy Adames. Snell wasn’t eligible to receive a QO this offseason because he already rejected one a year ago.

The Jays are believed to have just snuck under the competitive balance tax in 2024 by trading away some veterans at the deadline, which impacts their penalties for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. A tax-paying club has to forfeit $1MM of international bonus pool space as well as its second- and fifth-highest pick in the next draft. If the Jays did indeed go under the CBT line in 2024, those penalties will instead be $500K of pool space and just the second-best draft pick. In recent years, the Jays have been willing to sign players who rejected qualifying offers, doing so with both Springer and Bassitt.

Braves Exploring Outfield Market, Prefer Left-Handed Bat

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The Braves are poking around the market for outfield help after non-tendering Ramon Laureano and prefer to add a left-handed bat if possible, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports.

It doesn’t seem as though Atlanta is intent on shopping at the top of the market. They’ve not been suggested as anything more than a speculative dark horse for top free agent Juan Soto. Veterans like Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar and Tyler O’Neill all seem likely to command multi-year deals of note. The Braves are looking for some depth to help cover early in the season, in the likely event that Ronald Acuna Jr. is unavailable to begin the year; president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said at this month’s GM Meetings that they’re planning as though Acuna will open the season on the injured list.

With no Acuna, the Braves’ outfield would include Jarred Kelenic, Michael Harris II and some combination of Eli White, Luke Williams and recently signed Carlos D. Rodriguez. It’s logical that Atlanta would pursue some more solidity on that front. Some may feel Laureano could have provided just that, but his solid showing with Atlanta was buoyed by a .380 average on balls in play and came in spite of a 3.5% walk rate and 28.3% strikeout rate. Regression seems highly likely. Laureano hit just .218/.296/.373 in 2022-23 with a similar strikeout rate, twice the walk rate, and a BABIP about 100 points lower. Plus, he’s a right-handed bat.

Most of Atlanta’s moves in free agency and on the trade market thus far have been modest in scope. Anthopoulos rarely spends on long-term deals in free agency, preferring instead to operate on the trade market and to rely on a strong track record of in-house development. Atlanta has only given out three free-agent contracts greater than two years under Anthopoulos (link via MLBTR’s Contract Tracker): left-hander Will Smith (three years, $40MM), right-hander Reynaldo Lopez (three years, $30MM) and outfielder/DH Marcell Ozuna (four years, $65MM). None of that necessarily precludes a larger-scale deal, but history suggests it to be unlikely.

Fortunately for the Braves, there’s a fairly deep pool of inexpensive left-handed-hitting bats on this offseason’s market. Max Kepler, Michael Conforto, Alex Verdugo, Jesse Winker, David Peralta, Mike Tauchman and switch-hitting former top prospect Dylan Carlson are among the lefty bats available this winter. (Kepler and Conforto, in particular, might require multi-year deals.) The trade and waiver markets offer further possibilities.

Anthopoulos has already suggested this offseason that he expects his payroll to rise in 2025. The Braves spent about $232MM on last year’s roster and currently have a projected $202MM payroll in 2025, per RosterResource. That certainly leaves room for some additions, but Atlanta’s luxury-tax ledger is a bit more crowded.

The Braves have more than $217MM in projected luxury obligations, leaving them $24MM or so from hitting this year’s $241MM barrier. They’d be paying the tax for a third straight season if they cross that line and, as such, would be subject to the steepest tier of penalties. They’d start at a 50% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the line, followed by 62% for the next $20MM, 95% for the next $20MM (plus their top draft pick in 2026 dropping by ten places) and 110% for any dollars thereafter. With needs at shortstop, in the starting rotation and in the bullpen as well, Anthopoulos will have a hard time piecing everything together without crossing that line.

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