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Tigers Option Parker Meadows, Select Ryan Vilade

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May 7: The Tigers have now officially announced that they have optioned Meadows, selected Vilade and transferred Gipson-Long to the 60-day IL.

May 6: The Tigers plan to option center fielder Parker Meadows to Triple-A Toledo before tomorrow’s matchup with the Guardians, reports Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. Detroit will promote Ryan Vilade to take the active roster spot, Petzold adds (on X). The Tigers will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster but can do so by transferring Sawyer Gipson-Long to the 60-day injured list.

While Detroit is out to a respectable 18-17 start, they’re riding a four-game losing skid after this evening’s loss in Cleveland. Their decent overall results are largely a credit of the pitching staff. The Tigers entered play Monday ranked 22nd in MLB in scoring. They’re 24th in on-base percentage and 25th in slugging.

It has been a very top-heavy group. While Riley Greene, Mark Canha, Kerry Carpenter, Matt Vierling and (in a smaller sample) Wenceel Pérez have hit well, Detroit has gotten almost nothing beyond the top half of their lineup. That’s particularly true at the up-the-middle positions. The catching duo of Carson Kelly and Jake Rogers and the middle infield tandem of Javier Báez and Colt Keith haven’t produced.

Meadows, who has started 26 of 35 games in center field, is off to perhaps the coldest start of all. He has punched out 32 times in 85 plate appearances. Meadows is hitting .096/.224/.219 with a pair of home runs. To his credit, he hasn’t carried those offensive struggles with him into the outfield. Public metrics have rated him among the sport’s best defensive players through the season’s first few weeks. Yet the Tigers clearly need some level of offensive contributions from the bottom of the order.

Plugging Pérez into the lineup is one way to try to inject more life into the offense, though it’ll surely involve a defensive downgrade. It seems that’s a trade-off the Tigers are willing to embrace. Manager A.J. Hinch had penciled Pérez into center field for four straight games at the end of last week. Meadows has gotten the start for the last two games while Pérez battled an illness. The rookie came off the bench to hit for Meadows in the sixth inning of tonight’s game.

Pérez, 24, has started his MLB career with a .296/.387/.556 slash over 62 plate appearances. While he’s not likely to continue hitting at that elite clip, the switch-hitter had a solid .274/.368/.417 showing between the top two minor league levels in 2023. At the very least, he’s currently in a much better groove at the plate than Meadows has been.

Meadows entered the season with 42 days of MLB service. He needs to spend 130 days on the MLB roster or injured list to surpass the one-year threshold in 2024. Meadows has spent 40 days in the majors this year. If he stays in Toledo for around two months, his path to free agency would be pushed back until the 2030-31 offseason.

Vilade, 25, has three games of MLB experience. A former second-round pick of the Rockies, he was once a prospect of some regard in the Colorado system. Vilade stalled out in the upper minors, though, and he only received a cup of coffee at Coors Field in 2021. He spent the 2023 season in Triple-A with the Pirates after being claimed off waivers. Vilade hit .271/.370/.382 with Pittsburgh’s top affiliate but didn’t get a big league look.

The right-handed hitter signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in November. He’s out to a big start in Toledo, hitting .333/.398/.551 with three homers and eight doubles. Vilade has also swiped eight bases in nine tries. He’s striking out at a 27.3% clip, which is a concern, but the overall production was enough to snag a roster spot. Vilade has bounced all over the diamond for the Mud Hens, starting multiple games at second base, third base, designated hitter and in all three outfield positions. He can work as a bat-first utility piece off the bench.

J.P. France Facing Notable Absence Due To Shoulder Injury

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Astros right-hander J.P. France is dealing with a shoulder injury and is going to be out “a while,” per reporting from Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Rome adds in a post on X that manager Joe Espada told SportsTalk 790 that France has been shut down with “right shoulder soreness” and will be sent for more testing. The righty dealt with a shoulder issue during Spring Training but got over it in time to make the Opening Day roster, making five starts before being optioned to Triple-A at the end of April.

An injury to a starter on optional assignment wouldn’t always be a big deal, but there are a few reasons why it would be concerning for the Astros right now. The club is out to a rough 12-22 start, making it feel like their season is in peril. Houston has a very strong track record in the recent past and it’s still early here in 2024, but they will need a run of victories at some point to gain ground in the playoff race.

On top of that, the next part of their schedule is going to be tough. Today marks the start of a period where they play 29 games in 30 days, a challenging enough stretch that the club is likely to go with a six-man rotation.

The starting staff has been a juggling act all year. They knew coming into the season that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia would be missing significant time as each underwent elbow surgery last year. On top of that, each of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and José Urquidy have spent time on the injured list.

Verlander and Valdez have since returned and are currently active. The other three rotation spots are currently held by Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti. Blanco has pitched very well, even throwing a no-hitter against the Blue Jays last month, but Brown and Arrighetti have faced significant struggles. Brown has an 8.89 earned run average through his seven starts while Arrighetti has a mark of 8.27 through his four outings.

Javier is expected to be activated from the IL at some point in the near future, perhaps as soon as this weekend, to give the club six starters. France could have perhaps been an option to replace Brown or Arrighetti but this injury could force the Astros to stick with those two.

Urquidy is nearing a rehab assignment but would likely need at least a few weeks to build up since he’s missed the entire season so far. Pitchers like Brandon Bielak and Shawn Dubin have some starting experience but are currently in the big league bullpen and not stretched out. Blair Henley is on the 40-man but his one major league start was disastrous, allowing five earned runs while recording just one out, while his Triple-A numbers aren’t great either.

One surprising name that could be entering the mix is A.J. Blubaugh, as Rome reports that the right-hander has “opened eyes” after his recent promotion to Triple-A. A seventh-round pick from the 2022 draft, Blubaugh has recently made five Triple-A starts with a 4.43 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

How the club decides to tackle their rotation challenges will be an interesting situation to monitor over the next month as they navigate this tricky patch of their schedule. For France personally, it would be quite unfortunate timing for him if the injury turns out to be significant, beyond the obvious frustrations. Since he was optioned to the minors a few weeks ago, he’s not currently accruing major league pay or service time.

France came into 2024 with 149 days of service time, just 23 shy of the 172 required for a full year. He spent 28 days on the active roster to start this season before getting optioned, meaning he barely eclipsed that one-year line. But if he were to languish in the minors while injured for a while, it would hurt his chances of reaching arbitration and free agency in the future. If he is set to miss significant time and the Astros want to use his 40-man roster spot, they could recall him and place him on the major league 60-day injured list, which would start his service clock running again.

Reds Select Conner Capel

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The Reds announced a series of roster moves today, selecting the contract of outfielder Conner Capel while also activating outfielder TJ Friedl and right-hander Frankie Montas from their respective stints on the injured list. The club had optioned left-hander Sam Moll yesterday and opened up two more roster spots today by optioning outfielders Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson. To open a 40-man spot for Capel, right-hander Ian Gibaut was transferred to the 60-day IL.

Capel, who turns 27 this month, signed a minor league deal with the Reds in the offseason. He has been in Triple-A so far this year and performing quite well. Through 122 plate appearances, he has walked almost as often as he’s struck out, with a 16.4% walk rate compared to a 17.2% strikeout rate. He’s hit seven home runs and has a batting line of .268/.397/.567, which translates to a 146 wRC+.

The outfielder has 145 major league plate appearances on his résumé with a slash line of .280/.366/.408. He struggled in Triple-A last year, which caused the Athletics to bump him off their roster, but he hit .263/.364/.422 in the minors in 2022 for a 112 wRC+.

On top of that mostly solid offensive work in the past few years, Capel can steal a few bases and move around the outfield. He’s been playing both left and center field this year, with some past experience in right field as well. He has swiped six bags so far here in 2024, with double-digit tallies in most of his previous minor league seasons.

The Reds came into the season with seemingly too many position players, but that apparent surplus evaporated fairly quickly. Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, Matt McLain required shoulder surgery and Friedl suffered a wrist fracture. Lately, some players have been missing time without going on the IL, including Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario.

That led to some extra playing time for players like Martini and Thompson. Martini hit two homers on Opening Day but has added just one more since then and is currently batting .177/.200/.329 for the season overall. Thompson is one of the fastest players in the league but hasn’t hit much. With the Reds this year, he has struck out in 11 of his 18 plate appearances.

Friedl has hit .267/.341/.456 in his career and should give a boost to the lineup. Capel could as well, but it’s also possible he’s behind Friedl, Will Benson, Spencer Steer and Fraley on the outfield/designated hitter depth chart. But perhaps he’ll fill Thompson’s role as a speedy bench outfielder, though with better abilities in the batter’s box. Capel still has an option remaining and can be easily sent back down to the minors at a later date if the Reds so choose.

Montas hit the IL a couple of weeks ago after being hit by a comebacker on his right forearm. The x-rays were negative but the club wanted to give him a breather as the soreness and swelling went down. He has now returned after a minimum stay on the IL, as hoped. Nick Martinez made a couple of starts in his absence but made a relief appearance on the weekend. Montas will slot into the rotation alongside Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft.

Gibaut, 30, has been on the injured list all year due to a right forearm strain. He has tried rehabbing a couple of times but keeps getting shut down with renewed soreness. Just over a week ago, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer relayed on X that the righty was shut down again and going for another exam. Today’s transfer means he’s ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which would be late May. That doesn’t seem to be possible at the moment since he’s not throwing and would need some time to ramp even if he is soon cleared to throw.

MLB Mailbag: Go, Arraez, Mariners, Red Sox, Braves

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Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers sent in their mailbag questions, and I answered a bunch of them!  Let's get to it.  For those surprised to see the paywall, please read the explanation here.

Chris asks:

It's my understanding that Woo-Suk Go was included in the Luis Arraez trade mostly for salary relief.  What is going wrong for Go so far that caused the Padres to change their minds on him so soon after signing him?

The way things went down with the Padres and Go was a bad look for the team:

  • Sign him to a two-year, $4.5MM free agent deal in January
  • Watch him get hammered in six spring training outings; send him to Double-A
  • Go pitches well in ten outings aside from an inflated BABIP
  • Include him in the Arraez deal as an apparent salary dump, four months after the signing and without using him in the Majors

While the standard XX-B free agent has to consent to a trade if he's signed and then traded before June 15th, Go was signed internationally, so he had no say in the matter.

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A’s Select Tyler Ferguson, Designate Lazaro Armenteros For Assignment

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The A’s announced they’ve selected reliever Tyler Ferguson onto the major league roster. Dany Jiménez was optioned to Triple-A Las Vegas in a corresponding move. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, Oakland designated Lazaro Armenteros for assignment.

Ferguson gets his first major league call at age 30. A Vanderbilt product, he entered the professional ranks in 2015 as a sixth-round pick of the Rangers. Ferguson topped out at High-A in the Texas system and was released shortly before the start of the 2019 season. He bounced between the independent Can-Am and American Associations between brief affiliated stints in the Dodgers and Braves systems. Ferguson made it as high as Triple-A with Atlanta before qualifying for minor league free agency.

The right-hander spent last season working in multi-inning relief with Arizona’s top farm team in Reno. He posted a 5.49 ERA over 78 2/3 innings and returned to free agency. The A’s signed him to a minor league deal with an invitation to MLB camp early in the winter. He tossed 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball this spring and opened the regular season in Vegas.

Ferguson has logged 15 frames over 14 appearances for the Aviators. He has allowed eight runs (only four of which were earned) while striking out 24 hitters. That strong start was enough to crack the A’s bullpen after a nearly decade-long climb through the professional ranks. He steps in for Jiménez, who has walked 13 of his first 67 opponents.

Armenteros, 25 this month, has yet to reach the big leagues. The right-handed hitting outfielder was a high-profile amateur signee out of Cuba back in 2016. Massive strikeout totals have long since damaged his prospect stock. Even though Armenteros hadn’t shown signs of significantly improving his contact skills, the A’s surprisingly added him to the 40-man roster to keep him from getting to minor league free agency at the start of last offseason.

The A’s assigned Armenteros to Triple-A for the first time this year. He has punched out a staggering 37 times in 72 plate appearances, making him the only Triple-A hitter (minimum 50 PAs) to strike out more than half the time. He’ll likely end up on waivers in the next few days. Assuming he goes unclaimed, the A’s could assign him back to Las Vegas without keeping him on the 40-man roster.

The Opener: Pitchers’ Duel, Yankees/Astros, Recent Opt-Outs

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Pitchers’ Duel in Atlanta:

Just two weeks after Red Sox right-hander Kutter Crawford faced off against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga in an early-season pitcher’s duel that pitted the then-best righty and lefty in baseball by ERA against each other in Boston, Crawford will again take the mound opposite one of the other best starting pitchers in the league to this point in the young 2024 season: Braves right-hander Reynaldo Lopez. Crawford sports an excellent 1.56 ERA with a 2.52 FIP and a 24.2% strikeout rate through seven starts this season. Those figures are very similar to those posted by Lopez in five starts this season: a 1.50 ERA, 2.94 FIP and 27% strikeout rate.

Those hot starts have left Crawford as the fifth-best starter in baseball by ERA with at least 30 innings of work this season, while Lopez ranks fourth. The strong results early in the season are all the more impressive given the fact that neither hurler was starting games this time last year; Lopez had pitched almost exclusively in relief over the past two seasons before being stretched out by Atlanta this winter, while Crawford was bumped to the bullpen in early April of last year and did not return to the Boston rotation until June. The two righties are set to face off this at 7:20pm local time this evening in Atlanta.

2. Series Preview: Astros @ Yankees

A three-game set featuring one of the more heated inter-division rivalries in recent years is set to kick off at 7:05pm local time in the Bronx this evening as the Yankees host the Astros. The look of the rivalry is very different six weeks into the regular season than it was in 2023, however. Last season saw the Astros capture their sixth-consecutive full-season AL West crown and make their seventh-consecutive trip to the ALCS as the Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since 2016, but this year the Astros have struggled badly in the early going while the Yankees have gotten off to a strong start on the back of offseason addition Juan Soto.

That’s left the Astros (12-22) with a nearly mirror opposite record to the surging Yankees (23-13) headed into this week’s series. It’s an important series for both clubs, with Houston desperate to make up ground in the AL West and avoid falling even further out of the playoff picture while the Yankees sit just one game back of the AL East-leading Orioles. Tonight’s game will see the Astros send future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (2.08 ERA in 2024) to the mound opposite Yankees righty Luis Gil (3.19 ERA). Gil will be followed by left-hander Carlos Rodon (3.68 ERA) on the mound for New York tomorrow, while the Astros figure to counter with youngster Spencer Arrighetti (8.27 ERA). Right-handers Ronel Blanco (2.09 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (3.41 ERA) will finish off the series for the Astros and Yankees respectively on Thursday.

3. Recent veterans who’ve opted out:

First baseman Mike Ford, left-hander Chasen Shreve and right-hander Mychal Givens opted out of their respective minor league deals with the Reds, with the Rangers and with the Marlins last week.

Ford, in particular, has had a massive start to the season in Triple-A, hitting .297/.381/.538 with six homers in 105 plate appearances. That followed a huge spring training performance in which he hit .455/.486/.727 in 35 trips to the plate. Shreve posted a 2.61 ERA in 10 1/3 Triple-A frames and posted a 4.63 ERA in 44 1/3 big league innings last year. He’s worked to a career 3.97 ERA in 356 MLB frames. Givens was tagged for 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings with the Marlins’ top affiliate, but half of those came in his first appearance of the season after signing late in spring training. Knee and shoulder injuries limited him to four innings last year, but he has a lengthy track record as a successful late-inning arm. Any of the three could help out a big league club and should come off the board again before long.

Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?

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With the Astros out to a rough start here in 2024, speculation has been mounting that they may have to consider a deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and would be a logical candidate for a trade, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today throws some cold water on the possibility.

Verlander has a full no-trade clause, which he waived last summer in order to go from the Mets to the Astros. Nightengale reports that the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were all heavily involved for the veteran righty, but that he would only waive his no-trade to return to Houston since he loves playing there. Nightengale infers from this that Verlander isn’t likely to waive his no-trade again in order to be sent packing from Houston.

Despite Verlander’s love of being an Astro, it’s possible he will have to weigh that against his desire to compete. He cited a desire to win as his reason for signing with the Mets, though that plan didn’t work out and he eventually returned to Houston in his pursuit of another ring. The Astros are 12-22 at the moment and face a steep climb back into contention. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs have dropped to 39.9%, after being at 86.2% at the start of the season. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic, however, still giving them a 64.1% chance.

If the club can’t get back into the mix by July, perhaps Verlander would warm to the idea of moving to another contender, especially since he’s now 41 years old and is surely aware that he may only have so many chances left. He has a 2.08 earned run average so far this year and should receive plenty of interest. As Bob mentioned, teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were trying to get him last summer, and previous reporting also had clubs like the Giants, Atlanta, Padres and Orioles on the phone.

Verlander may not be a pure rental since he has a conditional player option for 2025. As part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023, if he throws 140 innings in 2024, he has a $35MM player option for 2025.

Verlander started the season on the injured list, which slightly lowered his chances of getting to 140 innings, but he still has plenty of time to get there. He didn’t make his debut this year until April 19 and has only logged 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far. But he also started last year on the IL, not debuting until early May, then stayed healthy the rest of the way and got to 162 1/3 innings. Another injury absence could tighten things, but he currently has plenty of room to get to 140 as things stand.

Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire such players at the deadline because of the varying outcomes. If the player finishes the season strong, he will leave after being on the club for just a couple of months. If he performs poorly or gets injured, the team will be stuck with him for another year. But it’s worth pointing out that the extreme downside of a really significant injury won’t be present. Per Baseball Prospectus, the option also has a condition that “an independent physical exam determines Verlander does not have a right arm injury which would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day 2025.”

That clause would protect clubs against the nightmare scenario where they trade for Verlander, he crosses the 140-inning mark but then requires Tommy John surgery or some other significant procedure. In that situation, Verlander would not have the right to exercise his player option. There’s still the chance of Verlander simply struggling due to his advancing age and triggering the player option, but there’s some downside protection there as well. As part of last year’s trade, the Mets agreed to cover half the option if it vests.

Verlander is making $43.33MM this year but the Mets are covering $31.3MM of that, as reported by Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press at the time of last year’s trade. That means the Astros are only on the hook for about $12MM this year, which will be down closer to $4MM by the time the deadline rolls around.

Despite his age, Verlander has continued to pitch extremely well and could be highly sought after this summer. His peripherals don’t really support his 2.08 ERA so far this year, since he has struck out just 19.1% of opponents while giving out walks at a 10.3% clip. He’s had help keeping runs off the board so far from a .239 batting average on balls in play and 93% strand rate. But it’s also a small sample size of three outings after being on the IL.

Last year wasn’t quite as dominant as his Cy Young-winning season in 2022, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA over his 27 starts. His 21.5% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he also limited walks to a 6.7% clip.

Ultimately, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether Verlander is traded or not. The performance of the club will obviously be one of them, as Verlander would naturally be off the table if they get back into the playoff mix. If they stay out, Verlander’s feelings towards Houston might have him leaning against approving a trade, but he may prefer competing elsewhere if it’s a lost season for the Astros. It’s also unknown if the club would prefer to eat what they owe to Verlander to improve the prospect return, versus getting some other club to take on the money as a way of reducing their competitive balance tax calculation. Verlander staying healthy and pitching well will also be important, of course, especially with the player option up in the air.

There’s also the club’s long-term plans to consider. Max Scherzer wasn’t planning to leave the Mets last year until he found out the club was planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, which prompted him to approve a deal to the Rangers. If the Astros stay out of contention through the summer, they will have some tough decisions to make. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent and would be a logical trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy are slated for free agency after 2025, meaning they could be kept for another chance at competing next year or could be made available this summer as part of a larger reset. If that latter possibility opens up, it seems fair to assume that Verlander’s desire to stay in Houston would diminish, for the rest of this year and 2025.

What do you think is most likely for Verlander in the months to come? Have your say in the poll below!

Steven Kwan Expected To Miss Around Four Weeks

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The Guardians placed American League batting leader Steven Kwan on the injured list this afternoon. Testing revealed the underrated left fielder suffered an “acute” strain of his left hamstring, tweets Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Kwan is expected to be sidelined for about a month.

It is tough news given Kwan’s scorching start to the season. The left-handed hitter has turned in a .353/.407/.496 batting line over 145 plate appearances. Kwan has walked as often as he’s gone down on strikes (11 times apiece). It looked to be a massive rebound after he had a league average .268/.340/.370 slash in his second big league campaign. Paired with his characteristically elite left field defense, Kwan has been one of the sport’s most valuable players through six weeks.

The silver lining is that Cleveland has a high-upside replacement stepping into the lineup. The Guards promoted top prospect Kyle Manzardo as the corresponding move for Kwan’s IL placement. Manzardo should get everyday run at designated hitter after hitting .303/.375/.642 to start the season at Triple-A Columbus. Estevan Florial, who has been Cleveland’s primary DH, should see the majority of the left field work in Kwan’s absence. That was the arrangement Stephen Vogt ran in this evening’s 2-1 win over the Tigers. (Manzardo struck out in his first three big league at-bats.)

Cleveland’s outfield injuries aren’t exclusive to the major league level. Top prospect Chase DeLauter has been diagnosed with a fractured fifth metatarsal in his left foot, the team announced over the weekend (link via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). The 22-year-old is going to see a specialist to weigh his treatment options.

This is unfortunately not unfamiliar territory for DeLauter, whom the Guardians selected 16th overall two years ago.. He also suffered a fracture in that foot over the 2022-23 offseason. That required surgery and prevented him from making his season debut until early June. DeLauter tore through High-A pitching when he returned, hitting .366/.403/.549 in 42 games. He earned a late-season bump to Double-A and was widely regarded as a Top 50 minor league talent going into this year.

DeLauter continued to rake in Spring Training, connecting on four homers while hitting .520 in 13 exhibition games. That didn’t carry over into his first few weeks at Double-A Akron, as he was off to a .197/.296/.295 start over 71 plate appearances. That’s a small sample in a cold early-season setting, so it likely wasn’t of much concern to the organization. The potential for another extended injury absence — particularly with a second foot injury — is more worrisome, though it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to rehab without surgery this time around.

Dodgers Reinstate Walker Buehler, Place Joe Kelly On IL

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May 6: Los Angeles officially activated Buehler, as expected. To clear space on the roster, the Dodgers placed Joe Kelly on the 15-day injured list. The veteran reliever is dealing with a posterior shoulder strain.

Kelly is the fifth Dodger reliever on the shelf, joining Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Ryan Brasier and Connor Brogdon. Kelly has pitched to a 4.73 ERA through 13 1/3 innings on the season. His strikeout rate has dropped from an excellent 35.7% clip to a solid but not elite 24.1% mark in the early going, though he continues to throw exceptionally hard and is still inducing plenty of grounders.

May 2: The Dodgers will activate Walker Buehler from the 15-day injured list on Monday, manager Dave Roberts told the L.A. beat after last night’s win over the Diamondbacks (link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). He’ll take the ball to kick off a series against the Marlins.

It’ll be Buehler’s first major league appearance since June 10, 2022. The two-time All-Star went on the injured list 12 starts into the ’22 season with a flexor strain. After an unsuccessful attempt to rehab, he underwent a Tommy John procedure in August. That was the second such surgery of his career. Buehler also underwent Tommy John shortly after the Dodgers selected him out of Vanderbilt back in 2015.

While there was initially some thought that the right-hander could make a return late in 2023, he and the team decided it was better to play things safe and look ahead to ’24. The Dodgers started Buehler on the IL this season to afford him ample time to build back to peak form. He’d very likely have been on some kind of innings limit anyhow, so it’s understandable the Dodgers didn’t want to push him back onto the MLB roster too quickly.

Buehler began a rehab stint right around Opening Day. That stay in the minors probably lasted a little longer than the organization intended. Buehler was knocked out of his third appearance early when a comeback liner hit him in the throwing hand. That didn’t lead to any kind of serious injury but slightly delayed his pitch count build-up. Buehler walked four hitters in 2 2/3 innings in his fourth outing, so the Dodgers gave him two more Triple-A appearances to continue shaking off the rust.

While his cumulative results on the rehab stint — a 4.15 ERA with 21 strikeouts and nine walks in 21 2/3 frames — were middling, Buehler is coming off his cleanest outing. He tossed five innings of one-run ball for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. Buehler punched out five and didn’t issue a walk. He pushed his pitch count to 75, so he should be able to handle something approaching a standard starter’s workload immediately.

Buehler will get a soft landing in his season debut, as he’ll take on a Miami club that ranks 28th in on-base percentage and 29th in slugging. If he’s able to recapture his pre-surgery form, he shouldn’t have any issue taking on more challenging offenses as the season progresses. Buehler was one of the sport’s best pitchers between 2018-21, combining for a 2.82 ERA over 95 outings. He was off to a more pedestrian start to 2022, pitching to a 4.02 ERA through 65 frames with a diminished 21.2% strikeout rate. Buehler’s velocity and swinging strike percentage were in line with their previous levels, though, so he’d likely have turned in his typical top-of-the-rotation results down the stretch if not for the injury.

The Dodgers have gotten solid production out of their rotation thus far. They rank eighth in the majors with a 3.48 earned run average and sit sixth with a 24.1% strikeout rate. It has been a top-heavy group, though. Tyler Glasnow has been excellent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has rebounded from a nightmare MLB debut to rattle off a 1.64 ERA in the subsequent six starts. The back half of the rotation has been shakier.

James Paxton’s solid 3.51 ERA belies an untenable 22:15 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Gavin Stone has struggled. Bobby Miller landed on the injured list after three starts with shoulder inflammation. Emmet Sheehan, Tony Gonsolin, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May have been on the shelf all year. Landon Knack turned in decent results over three starts since Miller’s injury. The Dodgers optioned him back to OKC yesterday.

The 2024 campaign is a crucial one for Buehler personally. He’ll be a first-time free agent next winter. His health history will likely worry some teams regardless of how he performs over the next five months, but he’s one of the higher-ceiling pitchers in the upcoming class. If he stays healthy from here forward, he could position himself well for a long-term deal heading into his age-30 season.

Giants Notes: Murphy Timeline, Snell Update

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The Giants placed backup catcher Tom Murphy on the injured list due to a knee sprain over the weekend but didn’t provide a timetable for his return, as the veteran was headed for an MRI to determine the severity of the injury. Skipper Bob Melvin announced to the Giants beat today that imaging revealed a Grade 1 to 2 sprain.  Murphy won’t require surgery but is expected to be out of action for at least four to six weeks (X link via Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic).

The relatively lengthy absence for Murphy comes at a time when the Giants are also without starting catcher Patrick Bailey, who’s on the injured list due to ongoing concussion symptoms. San Francisco traded former No. 2 overall pick Joey Bart to the Pirates early this season because he was out of minor league options and the team didn’t want to carry three catchers in the long term. Since that swap, both catchers ahead of him on the depth chart have gone down with injuries. The result is a catching corps consisting of former Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol and recently promoted journeyman Jakson Reetz (who homered in his first game with the Giants yesterday).

Murphy, 33, has gotten out to a dismal .118/.211/.235 start after signing a two-year, $8.3MM deal over the winter. That’s come in a sample of just 38 plate appearances, however, far too small to glean meaningful conclusions. In 807 plate appearances with Seattle from 2019-23, Murphy batted .250/.324/.460 with 38 home runs. He was particularly dangerous against left-handed opponents, bashing them at a .287/.379/.539 clip.

With both Bailey and Murphy on the shelf and Bart now in Pittsburgh, the Giants’ catching depth has quickly dried up. Sabol is in line for the lion’s share of playing time, but he hit just .235/.301/.394 last season with a 34% strikeout rate. He was hitting .243/.378/.324 in Triple-A Sacramento this season, again showing worrying contact issues (30.8% strikeout rate). Reetz appeared in 15 games with Sacramento prior to his call-up and batted .217/.357/.435 in 57 plate appearances. Yesterday’s home run came in his first big league at-bat since 2021 — just the third MLB plate appearance of his career. Reetz is a career .234/.328/.478 hitter in parts of four Triple-A seasons.

It’s not a great update for the Giants, but Murphy avoided a worst-case scenario that’d have sidelined him for a much longer period. The Giants also provided a small update on reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell on Monday, with Melvin telling the team’s beat that the lefty pitched a bullpen session without issue and is slated to pitch three innings in a simulated game against live hitters tomorrow (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle). Snell, who was rocked for an 11.57 ERA through his first three starts, hit the 15-day IL due to an adductor strain last week.

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