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Yankees Sign Brandon Leibrandt To Minors Deal

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The Yankees signed Brandon Leibrandt to a minor league contract, according to the left-hander’s profile page at MLB.com.  The Reds designated Leibrandt for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of October, upon which Leibrandt opted to become a minor league free agent.

A sixth-round pick for the Phillies back in the 2014 draft, Leibrandt made his MLB debut in the form of nine innings and five appearances with the Marlins in 2020.  That cup of coffee marked his last trip to the Show until this past season, when Leibrandt tossed 6 1/3 innings over two appearances with Cincinnati.

In between those two big league stints, Leibrandt pitched in the minors with the Marlins and Cubs, and he spent the entire 2023 campaign and the start of the 2024 season outside of affiliated baseball, pitching with the Atlantic League’s High Point Rockers.  Leibrandt had a 2.70 ERA over 80 innings with the Rockers, which was enough for the Reds to give him a look on a minor league deal last May.

Leibrandt is turning 32 in December, so he’d be a late bloomer if he can unlock something at this stage of his career and catch on as a reliable big league pitcher.  However, the Yankees have had a solid recent track record at getting results out of unheralded pitchers, and Leibrandt’s seven percent career walk rate in the minors is a hint that he might possess MLB-caliber control.  There’s no risk for the Yankees in bringing Leibrandt to Spring Training and seeing what he can offer as a southpaw depth arm for the bullpen.

Reds Sign Alex Jackson To Minor League Contract

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The Reds signed catcher Alex Jackson to a minors deal, as per Jackson’s MLB.com profile page.  While not specified, the contract presumably includes an invitation for Jackson to attend Cincinnati’s big league spring camp.  Jackson chose to become a minor league free agent last month after he was outrighted off the Rays’ 40-man roster in September.

A veteran of five Major League seasons, Jackson’s 58 games and 155 plate appearances last year represented a new career high for the backstop, though he did very little with the opportunity.  Jackson hit only .122/.201/.237 over those 155 PA, with his 29 wRC+ was a whopping 71 percent below the league-average 100 wRC+ threshold.  These numbers essentially matched Jackson’s career .132/.224/.232 slash line in 340 PA with the Rays, Brewers, Marlins, and Braves.

It has been something of an unexpected career arc for Jackson, whose was seen as something of a hit-first catcher when the Mariners selected him sixth overall in the 2014 draft.  Jackson instead morphed into a quality defensive backstop who has simply been unable to hit big league pitching.  The Rays were content enough with Jackson’s defense to give him semi-regular playing time in 2024, but finally moved on by removing him from their 40-man roster in September.

Cincinnati declined its club option on Luke Maile and Austin Wynns became a minor league free agency after the season, leaving the Reds in sore need for a backup catcher to spell starter Tyler Stephenson.  Jackson and Stephenson are the only catchers in the organization with any MLB experience, and it is likely the Reds will bring in one or two more catchers to compete with Jackson in Spring Training.

Diamondbacks Receiving Trade Interest In Starting Pitching

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The Diamondbacks finished 27th of 30 teams in rotation ERA (4.79) last season, as a lack of production from the starting pitchers was one of the chief reasons why Arizona fell just short of the playoffs.  Despite these recent struggles, however, the D’Backs still got “significant interest from clubs looking for starters” during the GM Meetings last week, according to Will Sammon and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.

It really isn’t a surprise that any team with any level of on-paper pitching depth is getting hits on their starters, though this level of interest indicates that much of the league might view Arizona’s 2024 rotation performance as something of a fluke.  After all, Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez each missed the majority of the season with injury, Zac Gallen spent about a month on the injured list, and Jordan Montgomery just never seemed settled after missing Spring Training and only signing with the D’Backs on Opening Day.  Beyond this veteran group, younger and more controllable starters like Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Yilber Diaz also had respectable showings as they were called on to cover innings in place of their injured teammates.

Sammon and Mooney didn’t specify which names drew any particular attention from trade suitors, though it might be safe to guess that Rodriguez’s trade value is fairly low, considering his injury-plagued year and the $66MM remaining on his contract through 2027.  Beyond E-Rod, any of Arizona’s other pitchers could be viewed as trade candidates depending on the club’s own plans, or if one rival team views a particular starter as a key fit.

The fact that the Diamondbacks have “more options and more quality,” Sammon and Mooney write, gives them a leg up in trade talks.  The Pirates are another team said to be drawing interest in their pitchers, though since Pittsburgh’s arms are mostly of the younger variety, the Pirates might appeal to teams in a bit of a rebuild stage rather than teams looking for a win-now piece for 2025.  It can also be assumed that the Bucs have pitchers (i.e. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones) who aren’t going anywhere, whereas the D’Backs can be more broadly open to at least listening on any of their starters.

Naturally, a team that got so little from its rotation in one season won’t be so quick to deal away from its starting depth the next year.  However, Gallen, Kelly, and Montgomery are all slated to be free agents next season, so the Diamondbacks could be open to moving a starter they don’t believe will be part of the long-term plan.  Montgomery in particular has been a subject of trade rumors since owner Ken Kendrick criticized his team’s decision to sign the southpaw, and while Montgomery unsurprisingly exercised his $22.5MM player option for 2025, that doesn’t mean the team and pitcher might still part ways via trade.

Trading long-term rotation staples like Gallen and Kelly might be a tougher decision for the D’Backs, yet moving a veteran arm might be preferable than moving one of the controllable younger pitchers.  Arizona could deal away a younger arm as part of an all-in approach to 2025 while their established stars are still around, though that clashes with the more measured style of GM Mike Hazen.  Pfaadt, Nelson, and Diaz could be counted on for larger roles if any of the impending free agents sign elsewhere next winter, and more boldly moving a pitcher like Gallen now would give the D’Backs a big return.

In terms of the needs the Diamondbacks have to address, Sammon and Mooney note that the team is looking for a high-leverage reliever who can perhaps step into a closing role.  Arizona’s bullpen was also a weak link last year, and figures to be more of a focus than a rotation that (on paper) could be fine if everyone is healthy.  Some offensive help also seems necessary with Christian Walker, Joc Pederson, and Randal Grichuk all currently on the free agent market.

Tigers Sign Bligh Madris To Minors Contract

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The Tigers signed first baseman/outfielder Bligh Madris to a new minor league contract, according to Madris’ MLB.com profile page.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the deal includes an invitation to the Tigers’ big league Spring Training camp, and Madris will earn $800K in guaranteed salary if he makes Detroit’s active roster at any point next season.

Madris returns for his second consecutive season in the Tigers organization, and third stint overall in Motown.  Initially claimed off the Astros’ waiver wire in November 2022, Madris was traded back to Houston a couple of months later.  He spent the 2023 season with Triple-A Round Rock and made 12 big-league appearances with the Astros before rejoining the Tigers on another minors deal almost exactly a year ago.

His first proper stay in Detroit saw Madris appear in 21 games at the MLB level, hitting .269/.324/.358 over 75 plate appearances.  This playing time came while Spencer Torkelson was figuring things out in Triple-A, as Madris ended up playing almost every day at first base after Gio Urshela and Mark Canha were both traded at the deadline, and before Torkelson was recalled in mid-August.

Madris has a .204/.273/.286 slash line over his 228 career PA in the majors, compiled with the Pirates, Astros, and Tigers over the last three seasons.  His Triple-A numbers (.254/.346/.447 in 1603 PA) are much more solid, and the Tigers obviously seem to value Madris as a depth piece within their farm system.  Madris has a minor league option remaining so he might again be spending most of 2025 in Toledo, and anything more than spot duty on the active roster could be difficult to achieve, since Detroit is if anything overloaded with left-handed hitters.

Cardinals Expected To Gauge Trade Interest In Nolan Arenado

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The Cardinals’ reset isn’t likely to feature trades of Willson Contreras or Sonny Gray — both have no-trade clauses and reportedly prefer to remain in St. Louis — but they’ll still have some big names on the market. Among them could be third baseman Nolan Arenado. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards will spend the next couple weeks gauging which teams have interest in Arenado and getting a feel for what might be available in a trade. If there’s anything compelling that comes from those early talks, they’ll approach Arenado about his openness to waiving his no-trade clause for a trade to the location(s) in question.

Arenado, 34 in April, is signed for another three seasons and owed a total of $74MM in that time. The Rockies are on the hook for $10MM of that sum ($5MM in 2025 and $5MM in 2026), which helps to make the contract a bit more enticing. The 10-time Gold Glove winner and six-time Platinum Glove recipient remains a premium defender at the hot corner, but while Arenado was an MVP finalist in 2022, his past two seasons at the plate have been far less impressive. He’s still been an above-average hitter, but not by a wide margin. Since Opening Day 2023, Arenado carries a .269/.320/.426 batting line (104 wRC+).

Once a perennial threat for 30 to 40 home runs, Arenado has seen his power diminish considerably over the past two years. This past season’s .123 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting  average) was a career-low mark. The 16 home runs he tallied in 635 plate appearances and 152 games are his fewest since he hit only 10 long balls as a rookie in 2013 (albeit in a smaller sample of 133 games/514 plate appearances).

Arenado’s contact skills remain excellent, but even the 15.5% strikeout rate he’s posted since 2023 is up from the 13.2% rate he posted in the four preceding seasons. He’s never been one to walk at an especially high clip, but Arenado drew a free pass in 9.1% of his plate appearances from 2016-22 — compared  to just 6.8% in 2023-24. This past season’s average exit velocity (86.3 mph), barrel rate (3.2%) and hard-hit rate (31.2%) were all well shy of league-average and easily career-low numbers.

The downturn in offensive output, combined with a relatively weighty salary and Arenado’s no-trade rights, all complicate the paths to a potential deal being brokered. The extent to which that no-trade provision will come into play is an open question, but there’s reason to think it might not be the hurdle such clauses often are. Arenado’s exit in Colorado was prompted in part by his frustration over the team’s inability to field a competitive roster. He passed on an opt-out opportunity in contract after a third-place NL MVP finish in 2022 partly because he prioritized playing for a contending club and expected the Cardinals to be just that.

While a trade of Arenado is far, far from a sure thing, there are plenty of teams who’ll be in the mix for third base help. The Yankees, Mariners, Astros (if Alex Bregman leaves), Blue Jays, Tigers and Royals all have reasonably straightforward vacancies at the position. If Pete Alonso signs elsewhere in free agency, the Mets could move Mark Vientos to first base and enter the third base market. The Dodgers don’t need a third baseman but have been linked to Arenado frequently over the years.

If the Cardinals do move on from Arenado, it’ll gel with their offseason goal of opening more playing time for young talent. They’ve already committed to moving Contreras to first base in order to create at-bats for 24-year-old Ivan Herrera behind the dish. Dealing Arenado could open reps for Jordan Walker at his natural position — his attempted move from third base to the outfield hasn’t played out particularly well — or for Nolan Gorman. It’d also trim a notable amount of money off the books in each of the next three years, perhaps allowing the Cards to spend a bit more freely when they eventually look to emerge from the current retooling effort.

Giants Expected To Scale Back Payroll

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The Giants expect to reduce player payroll relative to this past season, writes Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic. The extent of the pullback isn’t clear, though the club’s 2024 spending was roughly $20MM higher than it had been in ’23.

That’s mostly a reflection of the late-offseason free agent pickups of Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Cot’s Baseball Contracts calculated San Francisco’s Opening Day payroll this year in the $208MM range. They started the ’23 season with roughly $188MM in spending, Cot’s measured.

The Giants’ competitive balance tax number jumped north of the $237MM base threshold. They’ll pay the luxury tax for the first time in six years. The payment itself should be modest. Cot’s estimates the Giants went around $14MM over the threshold. They’re taxed at a 20% rate on the overage, so they should pay around $2.8MM. (MLB hasn’t released the official CBT calculations to this point.)

While a sub-$3MM tax bill is a drop in the bucket for a team that spent over $200MM on salaries, it comes with ancillary penalties. The Giants would be taxed at a higher rate if they surpass the CBT next season — starting at 30% for the first $20MM in overages with higher penalties beyond that. Luxury tax payors are also subject to bigger penalties for signing a free agent who had declined a qualifying offer from another team. The Giants would surrender $1MM from their international amateur bonus pool and their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft to add a qualified free agent.

That’s relevant in a winter when the Giants are expected to play for some marquee players. They’re long shots compared to the New York teams in the Juan Soto bidding, but they’re among the best on-paper fits for Willy Adames and Pete Alonso. President of baseball operations Buster Posey is on record about wanting to add a shortstop. Adames is easily the top option at the position. First base isn’t as clear-cut a weakness — especially with top prospect Bryce Eldridge moving quickly through the minors — but Alonso would bring a lot more power than LaMonte Wade Jr. A run at a top-end starting pitcher like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried also isn’t out of the question.

At least one top-of-the-market pursuit should be doable even if ownership wants a notable payroll cut. Some of the spending reduction has already happened. The Giants shed Soler’s salaries at the deadline. Snell and Michael Conforto hit free agency (though they still owe Snell a $17MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in January 2026).

San Francisco has $109.5MM in guaranteed contracts for eight players: Chapman, Robbie Ray, Jung Hoo Lee, Taylor Rogers, Jordan Hicks, Logan Webb, Tom Murphy and Wilmer Flores. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects their four-man arbitration class of Mike Yastrzemski, LaMonte Wade, Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval to account for roughly $25MM. Rounding out the roster with players on league minimum salaries would push them into the $146MM range. That’d leave them a little more than $60MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll and roughly $40MM below their ’23 spending level.

Posey will surely want to reshape the roster after taking over baseball operations once the team fired Farhan Zaidi. All four of the Giants’ arb-eligible players are realistic trade candidates, though they’d be selling low on Doval. A straight non-tender of Yastrzemski isn’t out of the question. San Francisco could welcome a chance to get out from under a portion of Taylor Rogers’ $12MM salary. (They unsuccessfully tried to dump Rogers’ entire contract via waivers in August.) Posey and his staff should have a fair amount of leeway even if they’re not going to run another $200MM+ payroll.

That doesn’t negate the heightened QO penalties. Reluctance about surrendering multiple draft choices for Adames is a potential reason that the Giants are among the early suitors for Ha-Seong Kim, the next-best shortstop available. Snell, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Jurickson Profar, Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler O’Neill and Gleyber Torres are among the top free agents who did not receive qualifying offers. Soto, Burnes, Fried, Adames, Alonso and Christian Walker are among this year’s 13 QO recipients.

Athletics Re-Sign T.J. McFarland

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Novemeber 8: McFarland is guaranteed a $1.8MM base salary, The Associated Press reports. The deal comes with another $250K in bonuses based on appearances. McFarland would unlock $50K in his 50th game and would receive another $100K apiece at 60 and 70 appearances.

November 7: The A’s are bringing left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland back ahead of their expected move to West Sacramento next year. The team announced Thursday they’ve agreed to terms with the free agent southpaw on a one-year deal for the 2025 season. McFarland is represented by Octagon.

McFarland, 35, spent the 2024 season in the A’s bullpen and was a reliable source of quality innings. He appeared in nearly half the team’s games (79) and pitched to a 3.81 ERA with a below-average 16.6% strikeout rate but strong walk and ground-ball rates of 7.2% and 57.3%, respectively. McFarland stymied left-handed opponents with a .234/.267/.324 batting line, though righties had an easier time with him, slashing .273/.364/.414 on the season.

This will be McFarland’s 13th season in the majors, and assuming he sticks on the roster for at least 122 days, he’ll reach the coveted 10 years of major league service time over the course of the 2025 campaign. The sinker-heavy southpaw carries a lifetime 4.10 ERA in the majors and has never been adept at missing bats (13.9% career strikeout rate, and career-high 18.2% mark in 2023). However, he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball specialists (career 61.7%, and career-high 67.9% back in 2018) and has only thrice logged a worse-than-average walk rate in his lengthy career.

Somewhat incredibly, McFarland will become the only player on the A’s roster who has a guaranteed salary for the upcoming season. The rest of the roster includes four arbitration-eligible players — Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Miguel Andujar and Dany Jimenez — but the rest of the players on the team’s 40-man roster have not yet even reached arbitration and thus do not have a salary locked in for next year. The A’s are widely expected to spend some money this offseason, be it via free agency or by acquiring players on guaranteed deals via the trade market, as they’ll need to spend a fair bit of cash in order to retain their status as a revenue-sharing recipient.

McFarland returns to a bullpen that lacks any real definition beyond star closer Mason Miller. Righty Tyler Ferguson posted nice numbers but did so as a 30-year-old rookie, making him something of a wild card. Hard-throwing righty Michel Otanez notched a 3.44 ERA and fanned 36.4% of his opponents in 34 innings … but also walked 13.2% of the hitters he faced. Twenty-seven-year-old Lefty Hogan Harris turned in a sub-3.00 ERA in 72 1/3 innings but had sub-par strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates (in addition to a disastrous 7.14 ERA in a comparable sample of innings in 2023).

Given the lack of defined roles beyond Miller, it’s likely the A’s will have multiple additions on the bullpen front. For now, McFarland looks like a candidate to work in some leverage spots against lefties who won’t be lifted for a pinch-hitter by the opposing manager. That said, A’s skipper Mark Kotsay typically used McFarland in low- and medium-leverage spots in 2025, so he’s not necessarily someone the team will throw right into full-on setup work.

The A’s could have some troubles drawing free agents to the team as they gear up to host home games in a Triple-A park for the next several seasons (assuming financing on their planned Las Vegas stadium is eventually finalized). But McFarland knows the team and the staff well, and for the well-traveled lefty, this new one-year deal offers him the opportunity to pitch consecutive seasons for the same team for just the second time in a span of seven seasons.

There’s obvious appeal in continuity for a pitcher who’s also spent time with the D-backs, A’s, Cardinals and Mets (plus a spring training with the Nationals) since 2019. It’s also just the second guaranteed deal he’s signed in what’s now five times through the free-agent process, so jumping early at a big league opportunity is both sensible and makes for a more relaxed offseason than the veteran southpaw is typically accustomed.

Guardians, Parker Mushinski Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians are in agreement with lefty reliever Parker Mushinski on a minor league contract, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic (on X). He’ll be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Mushinski had been with the Astros since they drafted him in the seventh round in 2017. The Texas Tech product pitched in the big leagues in each of the past three seasons. Mushinski hasn’t found much success, turning in a 5.45 ERA across 33 career innings. He has a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate over that stretch. Mushinski only fanned three hitters in 11 innings this year, leading the Astros to outright him off the 40-man roster in September. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end.

Things have generally gone better at the Triple-A level. Mushinski carries a 3.68 ERA over parts of four seasons in the Pacific Coast League. The majority of that success came between 2022-23. He had a tough season in the minors this year, allowing 5.44 earned runs per nine through 44 2/3 innings.

The Guardians have arguably the best bullpen in the majors. The group skews a bit right-handed, which plays in Mushinski’s favor as he tries to secure an Opening Day job. Tim Herrin is a lock for a season-opening spot, while Erik Sabrowski pitched well in a small sample as a rookie. Sam Hentges, arguably the most talented of Cleveland’s southpaws, is likely to miss all of next season after undergoing shoulder surgery in September. Joey Cantillo and Logan Allen could factor into the ’pen mix but project as rotation depth for the time being.

Mushinski has exhausted his minor league options. If the Guardians call him up at any point, they’d need to keep him on the MLB roster or send him back into DFA limbo.

Hal Steinbrenner To Meet With Boras/Soto

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Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner is scheduled to fly to Southern California for an in-person meeting with Juan Soto and agent Scott Boras, report Mark W. Sanchez and Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Post reports that the sit-down will occur in about a week a half — a few days after Boras and Soto welcome Mets owner Steve Cohen.

Boras suggested at this week’s GM Meetings that Soto plans to meet with the ownership group of every team that is pursuing him. That made it an inevitability that he’d sit down with each of Cohen and Steinbrenner. The Yankees and Mets are the two most obvious suitors for the market’s top free agent.

Plenty of teams would love to bring Soto into the fold. Heyman reported last week that at least 11 teams had reached out to Boras to express interest — the Giants, Dodgers, Blue Jays and Red Sox among them. Still, there’s speculation throughout the industry that Soto is likeliest to land with one of the New York teams. Boras has publicly stated that Soto is willing to sign anywhere. Saying otherwise wouldn’t do his market any favors, of course.

Phillies owner John Middleton opined today that the bidding may come down to the Yankees and Mets. “I’m afraid Juan Soto wants to be in New York, and I don’t mind being a stalking horse,” Middleton told Conor Smith of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “At some point, if [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] and I get that feeling, we’ll probably say, ‘You know what, we’re not going to win this’ because we’ve both been the stalking horse before. And if I were an agent, I would do it too. It’s perfectly good strategy. I mean, it’s smart. But at the end of the day, I just think he likes New York.“

Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

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