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Blue Jays “Believed” To Have Met With Ohtani On Monday

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Blue Jays officials are “believed” to have met with Shohei Ohtani at the team’s complex in Dunedin on Monday, writes Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. It’s the latest development in a free agency process shrouded in secrecy, as Ohtani’s camp has reportedly made clear that the superstar would hold it against teams if they leak pertinent information.

Speculation about Ohtani and the Jays heightened this afternoon when Toronto general manager Ross Atkins switched his media availability to a Zoom conference. Atkins declined to specify his location, but his absence from Nashville’s Winter Meetings indicated he had other priorities. The Jays called the matter a “scheduling conflict.”

Ohtani meeting with Jays’ officials, assuming that was indeed the case, affirms that they’re in the running for the AL MVP. Yet it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a clear favorite. Rosenthal adds that the Dodgers and Cubs are involved, with other teams possibly still under consideration.

To that end, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle wrote this evening that there are “indications” Ohtani had met with Giants’ brass on Saturday. Team officials were spotted at Oracle Park, while Slusser wrote on Saturday of “rumblings” that Ohtani was in San Francisco.

As a result of Ohtani’s evident desire to keep the process as mysterious as possible, executives and coaches with every team involved have steadfastly remained quiet. Angels manager Ron Washington joked at his media availability today that he “didn’t have anything to say about (Ohtani’s free agency) right now, because (he didn’t) want to let anything out of the bag” (video provided by Beyond the Halo).

With Ohtani’s free agency contributing to a slow pace early in the offseason, many fans have hoped for a resolution at the Winter Meetings. That may not be coming. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote on Monday afternoon that Ohtani could continue meeting with interested teams beyond the conclusion of the meetings on Wednesday.

Picollo: Royals Have At Least $30 Million To Spend This Offseason

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The Royals have been relatively active over the first month of the offseason, inking one of the four free agent position players to sign so far this winter and trading for two pitchers ahead of the non-tender deadline in November. Still, the front office has plenty of work to do if the team is going to improve upon a 56-106 record in 2024. On Monday, Royals general manager J.J. Picollo spoke with members of the media at the Winter Meetings to discuss the team’s plans for the remainder of the offseason.

Most notably, Picollo revealed that he has at least $30MM to spend in free agency (as relayed by Jaylon Thompson of The Kansas City Star). That could bring the team’s 2024 payroll just over $100MM, a total the Royals have not surpassed since 2019. What’s more, the executive suggested he could spend beyond that estimate for the right players.

Presumably, Picollo will use most of his budget to improve a pitching staff that finished second-last in the AL in ERA, SIERA, and FanGraphs WAR last season. He specified that he would like to acquire one starting pitcher and two relievers, one of whom would hopefully step into the closer’s role.

While Picollo didn’t identify any particular targets, he stated on MLB Network Radio that the Royals “can be competitive” in the price range several free agent starting pitchers have already signed for. Presumably, he’s not referring to Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but instead the next tier down. That means pitchers like Kyle Gibson, Kenta Maeda, Luis Severino, Nick Martinez, and Lance Lynn, all of whom signed for an annual average salary in the $11MM to $13MM range.

During his appearance on MLB Network Radio, Picollo also touched on the non-monetary side of free agent negotiations. Factors beyond money are particularly relevant for a rebuilding team like the Royals, as they try to convince free agents they are an attractive destination despite their recent string of losing seasons. “When you’re recruiting free agents they want to know what your plan is,” he said. “So our process has got to be pretty deep and thorough because we’re really selling those players on what we can do for them.”

One name on many fans’ minds is Zack Greinke, who became a free agent following the 2023 season. According to Picollo (and as relayed by Thompson), the Royals are still waiting to hear if the six-time All-Star plans to retire this winter. While he isn’t the star he used to be during his first run with Kansas City, Greinke has been a reliable innings eater for the Royals over the last two seasons, pitching 279 1/3 innings with a 4.38 ERA. Given his popularity within the organization, his solid performance over the past two years, and the team’s lack of pitching depth, one would think the Royals would be interested if Greinke decided to pitch again in 2024, but Picollo stopped short of confirming as much.

He did, however, confirm that MJ Melendez will continue to play the outfield next season. The 25-year-old was once one of the top catching prospects in baseball, but he transitioned to a full-time outfield role this past season. His defense never stood out behind the plate, where he was blocked in the Royals organization by Salvador Perez anyhow. With the emergence of backup catcher Freddy Fermin, and with the way Melendez improved at the plate after he stopped catching in 2023, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise that the Royals are going to keep him in the outfield going forward.

Finally, Picollo revealed that first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is ready to return to normal baseball activities over the winter after missing the final four months of the 2023 season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder. According to Thompson, the team will provide further information on his status during today’s media session.

Joe Ross, Brewers In Agreement On Major League Deal

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Today: The deal between Joe Ross and the Brewers is worth a guaranteed $1.75MM, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. The contract also includes unspecified financial incentives.

December 4: The Brewers and right-hander Joe Ross are in agreement on a major league deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The details of the deal, which is pending a physical for the Wasserman client, aren’t publicly known at this time.

Ross, 31 in May, has dealt with significant injury issues in his career and is coming off another notable absence. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, the second time he required that procedure, the first one coming in 2017. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants for 2023 and was able to get back on the mound by late August, starting a rehab assignment at that time. He eventually tossed 14 innings over eight appearances on the farm with a 5.14 earned run average in that small sample.

It would appear that the Brewers were intrigued by that showing, or perhaps his larger body of work and previous prospect pedigree. A 5.14 ERA is obviously not going to blow anyone away, but the fact that he was healthy and on the mound is the more important thing. As relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the righty’s velocity was in good shape at Triple-A late last year, actually above his previous seasons.

Ross was once a highly-touted prospect, having been drafted 25th overall by the Padres in 2011. He later debuted with the Nationals and posted a combined 3.52 ERA over 181 2/3 innings between 2015 and 2016. But he was limited to 13 starts in 2017 before, as mentioned, he required Tommy John. He missed most of 2018 and then posted middling results in 2019. He elected to sit out the shortened 2020 season and then had a 4.17 ERA in 2021 before suffering another partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament. He tried to rehab that injury via non-surgical means at first but eventually underwent his second TJS in May of 2022.

The Brewers probably can’t rely on Ross to suddenly take on a full stater’s workload. With his injuries and opting out of 2020, he’s only twice reached the 80-inning plateau in a major league season, in 2016 and 2021. Even in those two seasons, he was barely over the century mark. Perhaps the Brewers will end up deploying him in something of a swing role or as a multi-inning pitcher out of the bullpen, but that could depend on how he looks in Spring Training or what other moves the club makes before then.

The club also agreed to a deal with left-hander Wade Miley today, which means their current rotation projects as Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Miley, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea. Ross could perhaps try to force his way into the back end, particularly if an injury creates a new need. There’s also been plenty of rumors about the club considering a trade of Burnes, which would bump Ross and everyone else up one spot on the depth chart.

All teams deal with pitching injuries and it takes more than five starters to get through a full 162-game season. The Brewers also have Janson Junk and Aaron Ashby on the 40-man roster with prospects like Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski pushing towards their major league debuts. Ross figures to be in the mix somewhere, with his eventual contributions dependant on his health and the circumstances around him.

East Notes: Rays, Phillies, Nationals

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Several Rays players have come up in trade rumors recently, with the team currently set to run a payroll well north of $100MM, far higher than the $70MM to $90MM range they have sat in for the past three seasons. Among those trade candidates are Tyler Glasnow, whose $25MM salary makes him far and away the highest-paid player on the roster, and Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes, each of whom is sure to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration this winter.

However, president of baseball operations Erik Neander threw some cold water on the rumors surrounding Arozarena and Paredes on Monday. While the Rays seem to be actively shopping Glasnow, the executive clarified that the team is merely listening to offers for the left fielder and third baseman (per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Fielding trade proposals is simply standard operating procedure and a matter of due diligence for an MLB front office, especially for a team like Tampa Bay that is often highly active on the trade market.

That doesn’t mean either player won’t be traded this offseason, but it’s a meaningful distinction nonetheless. Arozarena and Paredes are still an excellent value in their early years of arbitration, and the Rays aren’t desperate to get either one off the books.

More news from around MLB’s East divisions…

  • Turning to the NL East, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the Phillies are planning to pick up a bullpen piece this offseason, and they’re also considering an outfield acquisition. It’s no surprise the Phillies are looking for another reliever, in light of Craig Kimbrel’s departure in free agency, but the note about an outfielder is slightly more revealing; after all, the three primary outfielders from the team’s 2023 postseason roster are all set to return in 2024. Indeed, with Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, and Johan Rojas already on the roster, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would only add another outfielder if he finds the “right fit” (as relayed by Coffey). Perhaps that means another impact bat to take over full-time duties in left field while Marsh platoons with Rojas in center.
  • While the Nationals aren’t likely to contend in 2024, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo is still planning to improve the on-field product. “I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those,” the executive told reporters during the Winter Meetings. “And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching” (per Mark Zuckerman of MASN). Of particular interest, Rizzo also mentioned that the team is prepared to offer multi-year contracts “in the right situation,” which isn’t always common for teams in the middle of a rebuild. Over the previous three offseasons, the Nationals have only signed one free agent to a multi-year deal: Trevor Williams, who signed a two-year, $13MM deal last December.

Mariners Looking To Add Multiple Position Players

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After letting Teoscar Hernández enter free agency without so much as a qualifying offer and subsequently trading both Eugenio Suárez and Jarred Kelenic, the Mariners have lost three hitters who provided above-average offensive production in regular playing time last season. Suárez and Hernández finished second and third on the team in RBI (trailing only superstar Julio Rodríguez), while Kelenic led the team in slugging percentage and isolated power until he fractured his foot in mid-July.

The team’s best options at third base and the corner outfield positions now include Luis Urías, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, and Taylor Trammell, three unproven 26-year-old outfielders and a former top prospect who struggled tremendously in 2023. Those four combined to hit just .204 last season with a .666 OPS and 87 wRC+ in 515 PA. Veteran utility players Sam Haggerty and Dylan Moore can also cover the outfield and infield corners, but neither is much more than the short side of a platoon given their career numbers against right-handed pitching.

With all that said, it’s no surprise Seattle is looking to add multiple position players this offseason, according to manager Scott Servais (per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). After all, the Mariners are ostensibly competing with the Astros and Rangers for the AL West crown, but if they’re going to win in 2024, they’ll need an offense to support their deep and talented pitching staff.

The Mariners are not thought to be in the running for Shohei Ohtani, but they could be a good fit for almost every other impact bat on the free agent market. They have also been linked to various trade candidates, including, most recently, Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes of the Rays.

It remains unclear how much money president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has to work with this winter, although he has managed to clear a significant amount of salary and he expects the payroll to increase in 2024 (per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times). It’s also hard to guess what trade chips the Mariners will be willing to part with. Entering the offseason, it seemed almost inevitable that they would trade one of their young starting pitchers to improve the offense. However, after sending Marco Gonzales to Atlanta as part of the Kelenic trade, Seattle has less of a logjam in the rotation, and Dipoto says the chances of the team trading another pitcher are “less likely” than they were before (per Jude).

That said, if the Mariners are serious about trading for Arozarena, Paredes, or another middle-of-the-order bat, they’ll need to make a pretty sweet offer, and luckily they still have an abundance of arms to deal from. Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller would make a strong starting five to open the season, but eventually Robbie Ray will return from Tommy John rehab and Emerson Hancock will force his way back to the majors. Too much pitching depth is never a bad thing, yet the Mariners might be wise to trade from an area of strength to bolster their depleted lineup.

NL Central Notes: Davis, India, Brewers

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Former first-overall pick Henry Davis will return to his natural position behind the dish in 2024, says Pirates manager Derek Shelton (as relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette). Davis began his professional career as a backstop but transitioned into an outfield role this past year. Throughout his first few months of big league action, he started 49 games in right field and played just two innings at catcher.

Davis has never been the strongest defender, and he lost out on playing time in 2023 to defensive wizard Austin Hedges, fellow young backstop Endy Rodríguez, and breakout backup catcher Jason Delay. All three provided Pittsburgh with positive defensive value behind the plate, per FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, and with so many capable catchers on the roster, it’s not hard to see why the Pirates were hesitant to drop Davis into the mix. Moreover, Shelton also mentioned that a right hand strain in mid-August prevented the 24-year-old from getting a chance to catch at the end of the year.

However, Davis will be more valuable and productive for the Pirates long-term if he can stick at catcher; if he reaches his offensive upside, he could be one of the best-hitting backstops in the game. For precisely that reason, catching will be the “focal point” for Davis in 2024, per Shelton. He could still see time at DH or in right field, but his manager is planning to give him a legitimate opportunity to develop his catching skills at the big league level.

In other news from around the NL Central…

  • After signing top prospect Jackson Chourio to a record-breaking contract extension, the Brewers are listening to trade offers for the rest of their young outfielders, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While Heyman doesn’t go into much detail about any potential trade offers on the table, he names Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Tyrone Taylor and Blake Perkins as the cost-controlled outfielders Milwaukee could be willing to sell. With Christian Yelich a lock in left field and Chourio the favorite to start in center, the Brewers have a bevy of talented outfielders and only one more spot to fill in the starting lineup. Given the team’s need for an impact bat and starting pitching depth, the Brewers could trade from an area of strength to address those concerns.
  • The Reds are not planning to trade second baseman Jonathan India this winter, according to president of baseball operations Nick Krall (per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). However, they could give him a chance to play a new position as the team attempts to break up a logjam in the infield. Specifically, Krall suggests that India could “maybe” play some first base in 2024. The 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has not played a defensive position aside from second base since the 2019 Arizona Fall League season, and he has never played first in his professional career. However, with Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, Noelvi Marte at third base, and Matt McLain looking like a good fit at second – not to mention Spencer Steer, who has played all four infield positions in his pro career – the Reds will need to get creative to fit India into the lineup. Cincinnati has no shortage of options at first base either, including Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Tyler Stephenson, but the more flexible India can be, the better his chances of earning regular playing time.

A’s Don’t Expect To Trade Paul Blackburn, Seth Brown

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A’s general manager David Forst chatted with reporters on Monday evening, discussing a few areas of the roster. Perhaps most notably, the GM said he didn’t expect to trade either starter Paul Blackburn or outfielder Seth Brown this offseason (relayed by John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Blackburn has been the subject of trade speculation as far back as the 2022 deadline. The right-hander has turned in serviceable back-of-the-rotation numbers for the past two seasons, combining to post a 4.35 ERA in 215 innings. That has arguably made him Oakland’s most reliable starter, although he battled some injuries on his throwing hand late in 2022 and early in the ’23 campaign.

The A’s control Blackburn, who turned 30 on Monday, for two additional seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM arbitration salary. Brown, who is controllable for three years, is projected at $2.4MM. The lefty-swinging corner outfielder had a down season in 2023, hitting .222/.286/.405 in 378 plate appearances. He’d posted a more robust .230/.305/.444 showing — albeit mostly in favorable platoon situations — the year before.

Those are modest salaries by MLB standards, but there’d been some speculation that the A’s could look to tear spending down even further. Forst suggested that’s not the case, telling reporters he anticipates opening next season with a higher payroll than they ran to end the 2023 campaign.

Of course, that’s not exactly portending massive spending. The A’s ended last year with a payroll in the $59MM range, as calculated by Roster Resource. That was the lowest mark in MLB. Forst estimated their current commitments for next season sit around $43MM, a little north of the $40MM which Roster Resource projects.

That leaves some amount of flexibility to dip into free agency, although they’d surely be for players in the lower tiers. Last offseason’s acquisitions of Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Drew Rucinski, Jesús Aguilar and Shintaro Fujinami were all one- or two-year commitments that tallied a little over $40MM in overall spending.

Forst suggested that adding to a rotation without many clear candidates behind Blackburn and JP Sears was likely (link via Martín Gallegos of MLB.com). The GM made clear they’re looking to wait out the market for what is likely to be a low-cost veteran flier. “This time of year, the market is peaking,” Forst said. “It’s expensive, nowhere more than starting pitching, which is something we’re out there talking about. We are trying to be patient. I think we know with what we have to spend and what we need to do, patience is probably our friend here.”

One player who doesn’t seem likely to be part of the rotation competition: right-hander Mason Miller. Forst suggested the A’s were planning to move him to the bullpen, potentially as a closer, for the ’24 season (via Gallegos). One of the hardest throwers in the sport, Miller has been limited by injuries as a professional. He pitched only 39 1/3 innings over parts of three minor league seasons and was limited to 33 1/3 frames during his MLB debut this year, missing a good chunk of time with forearm tightness. A relief role will allow the A’s to keep a close watch on his workload next season, although Forst left open the possibility of stretching him back out as a starter in 2025.

Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels

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The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.

RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.

With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.

Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.

Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.

That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.

Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.

Cubs Reportedly Interested In Matt Chapman

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Much of the rumor mill this offseason regarding the Cubs has been tied to the top two positional free agents on the market- two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and center fielder Cody Bellinger, the latter of whom re-established himself as a star-level player this season after signing with Chicago on a one-year deal last offseason. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the club’s interest in top of the positional free agent market extends beyond those two names, as Chicago is “looking at” third baseman Matt Chapman. Heyman goes on to note that the Cubs are waiting on a decision from Ohtani before engaging with Bellinger and Chapman more substantially.

That the Cubs would have interest in Chapman’s services is hardly a surprise. While the club has a strong middle infield duo of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner providing solid offense paired with elite defense, the club’s production at the corner infield spots was far less impressive in 2023. The club’s 103 wRC+ at first base, which is somewhat inflated by the 59 appearances Bellinger made at the position, ranked just 17th in the majors. The hot corner was even more dire, as Chicago’s mix of third basemen including Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom, and Miles Mastrobuoni combined for a wRC+ of just 92 with just 1.8 fWAR. The latter figure was the eleventh-worst production from third base among all major league clubs last season, despite a late-season boost from deadline addition Jeimer Candelario.

Meanwhile, Chapman is among the league’s premiere third basemen. Only Austin Riley, Jose Ramirez, Gunnar Henderson, and Isaac Paredes posted more fWAR than Chapman’s 3.5 last season among regulars at the hot corner, while only ten third baseman posted a wRC+ better than Chapman’s figure of 110. In addition to improving Chicago’s dismal production at third base, Chapman would provide the club with a much-needed boost in power. While the Cubs’ offense scored the sixth-most runs in the majors last year, they ranked 12th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of just 104 thanks in large part to middling power production, as evidenced by their roughly average ISO (.167) and home run total (196).

That’s not to say Chapman comes without red flags, of course. While the 30-year-old has long been a reliable source of 25-to-30 home runs per season, he suffered something of a power outage in 2023 with just 17 home runs in 581 plate appearances. While his underlying metrics (including a 17.1% barrel rate and a career-best 56.1% Hard-Hit rate) suggest that lack of power production may not have been deserved, it’s still a somewhat worrying sign for a slugger on the wrong side of 30 who regularly posts strikeout rates that approach 30%. Despite those concerns, MLBTR projected Chapman for a six-year, $150MM deal this offseason while ranking him as the winter’s third-best positional free agent and seventh overall on our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. Much of that value comes from the slugger’s glove.

Though he hasn’t posted the elite OAA numbers in recent years that he did earlier in his career, Chapman is still on the shortlist of best defensive third baseman in the game; his +5 OAA in 2023 ranked in the 87th percentile, while his +12 DRS leaves him as the 12th most valuable infielder with the glove in baseball last year. Even if his offense is closer to the 110 wRC+ range than his career mark of 118 or the 130 wRC+ he posted during his peak years of 2018-20, pairing Chapman with Swanson and Hoerner on the infield dirt would put the Cubs in the conversation for the best infield defense in the sport.

Just as the Cubs are looking into other options besides Chapman as they look to add an impact bat in free agency, so too does Chapman have other suitors beyond Chicago. Both the Giants and the incumbent Blue Jays have also been connected to the infield so far this offseason, with Toronto having reportedly offered Chapman an extension north of $100MM in the four-to-five year range before he even hit the open market. An interesting wrinkle in the Chapman sweepstakes is that each of the aforementioned teams he’s been connected to so far this winter are also rumored to be among the remaining suitors for Ohtani.

Though it’s at least feasible that a club could look to sign Chapman this winter even after landing Ohtani, it’s impossible to predict what sort of payroll space any team would have remaining after committing $500MM or more to the offseason’s top free agent. Given that uncertainty and the position of Chapman’s publicly-known suitors as potential players in the Ohtani sweepstakes, it would be a surprise if a signing was imminent for the offseason’s top infielder.

White Sox, Mets Reportedly Finalists For Erick Fedde

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10:20pm: The Mets and White Sox appear to be the two finalists for Fedde’s services, Feinsand reports (on X). It is expected that the righty will agree to terms by tomorrow.

4:42pm: Free agent right-hander Erick Fedde is nearing agreement on a two-year deal with an unspecified team, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). The 2023 KBO MVP is expected to surpass $5MM annually on his upcoming contract.

If the deal is completed, Fedde will return to the majors after one season in South Korea. The 30-year-old turned in an excellent year for the NC Dinos, allowing 2.00 earned runs per nine across 180 1/3 innings. He struck out an excellent 29.5% of batters faced while walking under 5% of opposing hitters.

The 18th overall pick in the 2014 draft, Fedde had spent his entire MLB career with the Nationals. The UNLV product appeared on the back end of Top 100 prospect lists prior to his big league debut midway through the 2017 campaign. He missed time the following season with shoulder inflammation and bounced between Washington and Triple-A in 2019.

Fedde carved out a spot in the Nats rotation during the shortened 2020 campaign. He’d hold that role for the next three seasons, combining to log 310 2/3 innings over 67 appearances between 2020-22. The results weren’t great, as he posted a 5.42 ERA with a middling 18.1% strikeout rate. The Nationals declined to tender him an arbitration contract last offseason, setting the stage for his move to the KBO.

The dominant showing in a generally hitter-friendly foreign league set the stage for a quick return to the majors. In addition to the improved performance, it seems he overhauled his pitch mix. Fedde told Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post in August that he’d developed more horizontal action on his slider and tweaked the grip on his changeup. That altered arsenal has clearly intrigued a few teams, as reports indicated Fedde was receiving interest from multiple MLB clubs this winter.

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