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MLBTR Podcast: Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Skubal, Rooker, Orioles, Padres

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Today's mailbag marks the last one before the trade deadline, and covers the likelihood of Tarik Skubal and Brent Rooker trades, what the Orioles, Padres, Tigers, and other teams might do, and much more.   For further discussion of many of these topics, check out the MLBTR podcast as well.

Paul asks:

How aggressive do you see Detroit being in moving Tarik Skubal? As an O's fan I am wondering if a package centered around Basallo and some lesser guys like Norby and Stowers could get it done.

I do not expect the Tigers to trade Skubal.  They've got the AL Cy Young favorite under control through 2026 at well below-market arbitration prices.  In a couple of months, president of baseball operations Scott Harris will reach his two-year anniversary with the team.  Trading Skubal right now seems like a bit of a surrender for 2025-26, at a point in his tenure where it seems like Harris should increasingly be pushing chips in.

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Yankees Interested In Jonathan India

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The Yankees have issues on their infield and have interest in second baseman Jonathan India of the Reds, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. However, Castillo cautions that the Reds aren’t expected to make India available unless they fall out of the playoff race in the next week.

India, 27, is having a resurgent season after a couple of rough campaigns. He has eight home runs this year and is drawing walks in 12.7% of his plate appearances while only striking out 19.7% of the time. His .275/.377/.420 batting line translates to a 123 wRC+, indicating he’s been 23% better than league average at the plate overall.

On top of his offensive contributions, he has stolen nine bases in ten tries. His second base defense hasn’t been well regarded in his career but is better this year, at least by one metric. Defensive Runs Saved still hates him, with a grade of -8 so far this season, but Outs Above Average has him at +1. Since he has -22 OAA in his career, that’s a notable improvement.

At least in terms of the offense, it’s a return to his Rookie of the Year form. He got that trophy in 2021 after he hit 21 home runs and slashed .269/.376/.459 for a wRC+ of 122 while also stealing 12 bases. As mentioned, the past two seasons have been a struggle. India spent time on the injured list due to a right hamstring injury in 2022 and left foot plantar fasciitis in 2023 as he hit a combined .246/.333/.394 in those two campaigns for a 98 wRC+.

Now that he’s back in good form, it’s understandable that the Yankees would want him. In addition to his skills on the field, he’s fairly affordable. He’s making $3.8MM this year and $5MM plus incentives next year, with another season of arbitration control beyond that. That’s likely attractive for the Yankees since they are set to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top threshold, meaning any money they add to their ledger comes with a 110% tax hit.

Despite all that spending, their infield is in rough shape. Ben Rice is doing a passable job covering for the injured Anthony Rizzo at first base, but both second baseman Gleyber Torres and shortstop Anthony Volpe have been subpar at the plate this year.

DJ LeMahieu missed the first two months of the season due to a right foot contusion and has been awful since been reinstated. While playing regularly at third base, he is hitting .183/.275/.229 this year for a wRC+ of just 52. He only has a .217 batting average on balls in play but he’s also not clobbering the ball, with most of his Statcast metrics trending down relative to his previous levels.

India has only ever played second base in his major league career, though he was almost moved into a utility role this year. The Reds graduated a large number of prospects last year, including infielders Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marté. The club then added to that group by signing free agent Jeimer Candelario. With India coming off those two rough seasons, he was going to be pushed into bouncing to first base and left field and even found himself in offseason trade rumors.

But that calculation quickly changed when Marté received an 80-game PED suspension and McLain required shoulder surgery. That put India back as the club’s everyday second baseman and it’s still the only position he’s ever played at the big league level.

Unless the Yankees want to get creative, then acquiring India would seemingly cut into the playing time of Torres more than anyone else. There would be some logic to that both from the perspective of 2024 and also beyond, as Torres is an impending free agent while India has a couple of years of additional club control. Torres is also slashing just .230/.307/.351 for a wRC+ of 90 this year with subpar defensive grades as well. The designated hitter slot is currently open with Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list, so it’s theoretically possible for India and Torres to be in the same lineup, but Stanton could be back soon and the Yanks have been putting Aaron Judge in there fairly regularly with Stanton out.

Though he may fit with the Yankees, there’s no guarantee he’s available. As Castillo reported, the Reds are still in the playoff race and may not want to sell. As of this writing, they are 49-53 and just four games away from a playoff spot in the National League. President of baseball operations Nick Krall recently suggested that the club had not yet made firm decisions about its deadline approach.

Cincinnati would naturally prefer to hang onto India if they’re still trying to climb back into the race, but he could be a logical trade candidate if they fall out of things. Marte has since returned from his suspension and McLain could return from his injury absence before the season is out. Though India has gotten back on track this year, the club could theoretically have an infield mix of Marté, De La Cruz, McLain, Candelario and Christian Encarnacion-Strand by next year, with Spencer Steer also in the mix. Candelario is signed to a three-year, $45MM deal that he’s not currently playing up to. The others in that group are still in their pre-arbitration years and likely to be viewed as long-term building blocks by the Reds, which could have India looking like an odd man out again.

But if the Reds hang onto India, the Yankees will face a challenge in finding other infield upgrades, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored in a post for Front Office subscribers. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is perhaps available but he would come with risk as he has been primarily playing in the outfield in recent seasons. The Yanks have been connected to him before but Castillo’s report adds that the Yankees have some concerns about how he would fit in their clubhouse. Isaac Paredes or Brandon Lowe of the Rays could be good fits but big trades between divisional rivals are rare. Other possibilities include Luis Rengifo of the Angels and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs, though it’s unclear if those clubs are willing to part with those players.

Phillies Showing Interest In Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan

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The Phillies are about as well-positioned as any team with the deadline approaching. While Philadelphia has tailed off lately and is playing at a .500 pace this month, they’re nine games clear of the Braves in the NL East. They hold a three-game edge on the Dodgers for the top record in the National League and have arguably the most well-rounded roster in MLB.

They’re obviously positioned as buyers and should at least make some additions around the margins. They’ve been seeking a right-handed hitting outfielder for the last couple weeks. The bullpen has fallen on hard times this month, making that another obvious area for potential upgrade.

One of Philadelphia’s division rivals would make for a natural trade partner. Matt Gelb of the Athletic reports that the Phils have expressed interest in Nationals’ outfielder Lane Thomas and closer Kyle Finnegan. Washington could market both players, each of whom is under arbitration control for one more season. The Nats are considering offers on players they control for this season and next. They already dealt one such player, setup man Hunter Harvey, to the Royals in one of the more impactful moves in what has been a slow-moving deadline season.

Thomas is a right-handed hitter who does the vast majority of his damage in favorable platoon situations. He is destroying lefties at a .329/.414/.518 clip over 99 plate appearances this season. While a half-season platoon split is an extremely small sample, Thomas has been a lefty masher throughout his career. He’s a .307/.369/.520 hitter against southpaws. Thomas has produced below-average numbers versus righties. That has again been the case this year, as he’s hitting .211/.269/.347 without the platoon advantage.

The Nats have maintained they view Thomas as more than a short-side platoon bat. He has been in the starting lineup for 73 of the team’s 102 games. That includes a couple starts in center field, but Thomas is best served in a corner. He’s a middling defender even in right field.

Thomas isn’t the answer if the Phils are looking to upgrade over Johan Rojas in center field. Philadelphia would like a lefty-hitting complement for Brandon Marsh in left. Marsh has been an above-average bat (.274/.350/.448) against righties over his career. He hasn’t done anything against left-handers, striking out more than 40% of the time en route to a .211/.268/.289 slash.

Gelb writes that the Phillies aren’t exclusively looking at right-handed hitters in their outfield search. They could upgrade on either Rojas or Nick Castellanos in right if they landed an everyday player. A Thomas-Marsh platoon in left would yield excellent results, although it remains to be seen if the Phils are willing to meet Washington’s asking price to immediately curtail Thomas’ playing time. The 28-year-old outfielder is playing on a $5.45MM salary.

Finnegan is a more valuable trade asset. He was a first-time All-Star this summer after a few seasons of quietly strong work at the back of the Washington ’pen. Finnegan has worked as their closer for most of the past four years. After three straight seasons allowing between three and four earned runs per nine, he carries a 2.32 mark over 42 2/3 frames. Finnegan is 28 of 32 in save chances and has solid peripherals.

The righty has fanned 26% of batters faced against an 8.3% walk percentage. He’s sitting north of 97 MPH with his fastball and is getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip. Finnegan’s stuff is probably a tick below that of the top handful of relievers in the game, but he’s a consistently effective presence with ample ninth inning experience.

Philadelphia’s closing situation has been in flux with José Alvarado scuffling lately. Gregory Soto took the ninth in a tied game today against Minnesota. He hit a batter and allowed a walk-off single after a sacrifice bunt. Soto has been prone to bouts of wildness throughout his career, making him an imperfect fit for the ninth. Finnegan, who is making $5.1MM, has been a much more consistent strike-thrower.

Thomas and Finnegan may be obvious fits for the Phillies’ needs, but they’re surely two of many players the front office is considering. Acquiring either player (or both, in a package deal) could be complicated by the difficulty of trading within the division. Detroit’s Mark Canha, Oakland’s Brent Rooker and the Angels’ Kevin Pillar are among other righty-hitting outfielders who’d make sense as speculative targets. (USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tied the Phils to Rooker earlier this month.) There are no shortage of relievers who’ll move in the next few days, with Miami’s Tanner Scott and the Halos’ Carlos Estévez clear candidates as rental closers on bad teams.

One area which is evidently not a priority: the rotation. Gelb writes that the Phils are not emphasizing the starting staff and remain reluctant to part with their top prospects. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted yesterday that the Phils were discussing Garrett Crochet and Jack Flaherty. Philadelphia already has a strong starting five, so it’d be very surprising to see them beat offers by other teams that much more desperately need rotation help for those top-of-the-market starters.

Notable Draft Signings: 7/24/24

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A handful of draft prospects have agreed to $2MM+ bonuses over the past two days. Unless otherwise noted, bonuses were first reported by Jim Callis of MLB.com. Pre-draft rankings and scouting reports are provided by Keith Law of the Athletic, Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

  • Padres first-round pick Kash Mayfield agreed to terms at $3.4421MM. That’s full slot value for the 25th pick to keep him from attending Oklahoma State. Mayfield was the second high school pitcher off the board. The 6’4″ southpaw has a three-pitch mix, advanced control, and can touch 97 MPH. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm. San Diego went with another high school pitcher, Boston Bateman, in the second round. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports (on X) that he lands an above-slot $2.5MM bonus. Bateman is a massive left-hander with mid-90s velocity and a good slider, but his 6’8″ frame leads to questionable command projection. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Brewers agreed to a $3.44MM bonus with first-round pick Braylon Payne. Milwaukee selected the Texas high school outfielder with the 17th selection. Payne was not generally expected to go in the first round. McDaniel was highest on him, ranking 38th in his pre-draft list. Milwaukee cut an underslot deal but still paid Payne like a late first-round talent to sign him out of a commitment to the University of Houston. Evaluators credit Payne with at least 70-grade speed and the ability to stick in center field, though there’s some skepticism about his offensive upside. Second-round pick Blake Burke landed a $2.1MM bonus, Collazo reports (X link). A first baseman from the University of Tennessee, he hit .379/.449/.702 this season.
  • The Dodgers signed #23 pick Kellon Lindsey for $3.3MM, as first reported by J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group. That’s a bit below the approximate $3.68MM slot value. Lindsey is a high school infielder who’d been committed to Florida. He’s a top-of-the-scale runner who could eventually fit in center field, though he has played shortstop in high school. All four outlets note that Lindsey has similarities to Trea Turner at the same age, though that’d clearly be at the very high end of his range of outcomes. He’s listed at 6’0″ and 175 pounds and might have limited power but could offer a traditional leadoff profile.
  • Rangers first-round pick Malcolm Moore signed for $3MM. That’s just above slot for the 30th selection. A Stanford product, Moore is a left-handed hitting catcher. He’s regarded as a bat-first player with questions about his ability to stick behind the dish, but his hit/power combination made him a first round talent. Moore turned in a .255/.414/.553 slash with more walks than strikeouts this season. He was a draft-eligible sophomore who turns 21 next week.
  • The A’s went above slot to sign second-round pick Tommy White for $3MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). The 40th pick comes with a value around $2.33MM. White’s bonus more closely aligned with the very end of the first round. An LSU product, the righty-hitting White had an OPS above 1.000 in all three college seasons. He hit .330/.401/.638 with 24 homers in his draft year. He has good contact skills and massive raw power, though there’s some concern about his aggressive approach. White played third base in college but isn’t a good athlete and could move to first base in pro ball. Oakland also went above slot with a $2MM bonus for third-rounder Gage Jump, Callis reports (X link). A teammate of White’s at LSU, Jump has a mid-90s fastball and a pair of breaking pitches. Most evaluators project him to the bullpen because of inconsistent control and his smaller stature.
  • The Diamondbacks have agreements with supplemental picks Ryan Waldschmidt and J.D. Dix. Waldschmdit, a righty-hitting outfielder from the University of Kentucky, gets the $2.904MM value associated with the 31st pick. Law ranked him as the #11 player in the class, while FanGraphs and ESPN had him at the back of the top 20. Waldschmidt had a massive junior season, hitting .333/.469/.610. He’s limited to left field but draws praise for his plate discipline and exit velocities. Dix is a switch-hitting high school shortstop from Wisconsin. A Wake Forest commit, he has a well-rounded profile but underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder last fall and spent a chunk of this spring as a designated hitter.
  • Yankees first-round pick Ben Hess agreed to terms at $2.7475MM, reports Bryan Hoch of MLB.com (on X). He was taken 26th overall, which comes with a slot value around $3.33MM. Hess is a 6’5 right-hander from the University of Alabama. He works in the mid-90s fastball and has a promising slider. Law ranked him 24th in the class and wrote that he has mid-rotation potential. Hess had a mixed track record in college and struggled to throw strikes in his draft year, though. He posted a 5.80 earned run average across 15 appearances this season. The Yanks went above slot in the second round for righty Bryce Cunningham, who signed for $2.2975MM. He had a 4.36 ERA over 16 starts this season for Vanderbilt. The 6’5″ hurler has a three-pitch mix and a chance to stick as a starter.
  • The Phillies have a $2.5MM deal with first-rounder Dante Nori. He was selected with the 27th pick, which comes with a value around $3.23MM. Nori is a left-handed hitting outfielder from Michigan who’d been committed to Mississippi State. Evaluators praise his speed and nascent power potential. He’s significantly older than the typical high schooler, turning 20 not long after the draft.
  • The Twins agreed to a $2.4MM bonus with 33rd pick Kyle DeBarge, Collazo reports (on X). Callis reports that Minnesota also went above slot to sign 69th pick Dasan Hill for $2MM. DeBarge is a 5’9″ shortstop from the University of Louisiana who hit .356/.418/.699 this season. He’s a hit over power player who could project to a utility role. Hill is a lanky left-hander from a Texas high school who had been committed to Dallas Baptist. FanGraphs had him as the #24 player in the class and projected him as a potential mid-rotation starter.
  • 39th overall pick Caleb Lomavita signed with the Nationals. Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com reports (on X) that he landed a $2.325MM bonus that is just below slot value. Lomavita is a righty-hitting catcher out of Cal who has advanced contact skills and a good chance to stick behind the plate. His very aggressive offensive approach leads to some risk about his on-base floor. Lomavita hit .322/.395/.586 during his draft season but only walked 12 times in 55 games. The Nationals acquired the 39th pick from the Royals in the Hunter Harvey trade.

Giants Agree To Terms With First-Round Pick James Tibbs

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The Giants are in agreement with first-round pick James Tibbs III on a $4.7475MM bonus, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (X link). That’s below the approximate $5.3MM slot value of the #13 pick.

Pre-draft scouting reports on Tibbs were generally aligned. He ranked between 11th and 15th at each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Keith Law’s list at The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel’s ranking at ESPN. Tibbs is a lefty-hitting corner outfielder and first baseman from Florida State. While he doesn’t have the prototypical plus raw power associated with a corner position, he’s a well-rounded offensive player who had one of the top hit tools in the class. Law and BA each praise Tibbs’ ability to handle high-velocity offerings in particular.

The Atlanta native hit well over all three seasons at Florida State. He improved his strikeout and walk profile in each season, culminating in a .363/.488/.777 showing during his junior year. Tibbs walked 58 times against 37 strikeouts while hitting 28 home runs over 66 contests as a junior.

Reds Re-Sign Edwin Rios To Minor League Deal

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The Reds brought back infielder Edwin Ríos on a minor league contract. He was assigned to Triple-A Louisville, where he’s in tonight’s starting lineup. Ríos had elected free agency on Monday after being designated for assignment.

He’ll again provide a non-roster bat from the left side. Ríos inked a minor league deal over the winter and has spent the bulk of the year in Louisville. He owns a .243/.340/.486 batting line with 11 homers and a robust 11.8% walk rate over 50 contests for the Bats, but he also struck nearly 29% of the time. The Reds gave him a brief look while Jake Fraley was unavailable. Ríos appeared in five games and went 1-9 with a walk.

A career .202/.290/.455 hitter over parts of six MLB seasons, Ríos is mostly limited to the corner infield. He has big power — 21 homers in 335 MLB plate appearances — that comes with an alarming whiff rate. The 30-year-old has fanned in more than a third of his trips to the plate at the major league level.

Giants Reinstate Robbie Ray, Option Luis Matos

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Robbie Ray is officially back from the injured list. San Francisco reinstated the southpaw from the 60-day IL to take the ball tonight against the Dodgers. The Giants also added recent waiver claim Derek Hill to their active roster. San Francisco optioned Luis Matos and Randy Rodriguez to Triple-A Sacramento in corresponding moves. To open a spot on the 40-man roster for Ray, the Giants moved Keaton Winn to the 60-day IL.

Ray makes his team debut after being acquired from the Mariners over the winter. Seattle and San Francisco lined up on an out of nowhere swap of veterans on big contracts. The Giants shipped Anthony DeSclafani and Mitch Haniger to Seattle to take a flier on Ray, who was about halfway through his rehab from last May’s Tommy John procedure. The M’s flipped DeSclafani to the Twins, with whom he suffered a Spring Training injury and underwent season-ending surgery. Haniger has underperformed for a second straight year.

The Giants hope their end of the deal yields better results. Ray is more than 14 months removed from his most recent MLB pitch. He’s one of the higher-upside pitchers in baseball when healthy. He won the American League Cy Young award when he turned in a 2.84 ERA with an MLB-best 248 strikeouts for the Blue Jays in 2021. That led the Mariners to sign him to a five-year free agent pact. Ray posted good but not elite numbers in year one, working to a 3.71 earned run average through 189 innings. He made all of one start last season before suffering the injury that sent him under the knife.

If the Giants get even the ’22 version of Ray, that’d be a major boost to their rotation. He joins last year’s Cy Young winner Blake Snell as high-risk, high-reward lefties. Logan Webb is one of the game’s best starters, while Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks round out the group. Harrison has a 3.86 ERA over 17 starts in his first full MLB season. Hicks started the season very well but has seemingly shown signs of fatigue lately in his first extended look out of the rotation.

Winn was also part of the rotation early in the season. The ground-ball specialist took the ball 12 times but struggled to a 7.16 ERA across 55 1/3 frames. He has been out for about a month with elbow inflammation. Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area reported earlier this week that Winn is still feeling soreness and has been shut down from throwing (X link). He’s eligible to return at the end of August, but it now seems in doubt if he’ll make it back this season.

On the position player side, Hill steps into the outfield at Matos’ expense. They’re each righty hitters with the ability to play all three positions. Matos has struggled to a .217/.238/.333 slash over 40 games. He’s also had some defensive lapses that’ll lead the Giants to send him back to Triple-A. Matos is only 22 and rates as one of the better prospects in the system. He owns a .295/.358/.536 slash over 76 career Triple-A games.

Dodgers, Nick Ahmed Agree To Major League Deal

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The Dodgers are signing shortstop Nick Ahmed to a big league deal and placing Miguel Rojas on the injured list, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. David Vassegh of 570 Sports first noted (on X) that Ahmed was with the team. The veteran infielder is an Excel Sports Management client.

Ahmed continues his tour of the National League West. The longtime Diamondback signed a minor league deal with the Giants over the winter. He made the Opening Day roster and appeared in 52 games with San Francisco. Ahmed struggled to a .232/.278/.303 batting line over 172 trips to the plate and was released two weeks ago. He lingered on the open market before landing an immediate big league opportunity because of the Dodgers’ injury situation in the middle infield. Ahmed will only make the prorated portion of the MLB minimum salary for whatever time he spends on the L.A. roster. The Giants are still on the hook for the rest of his salary.

Los Angeles has been without Mookie Betts for more than five weeks. Betts was amidst another MVP-caliber season in his first year as an everyday shortstop before he broke his hand on a hit-by-pitch. That pushed Rojas from a glove-first utility role back into regular work at shortstop. He hasn’t provided much offensively, hitting .241/.282/.329 across 86 trips to the plate since the Betts injury. The Dodgers were mostly hoping he’d keep things afloat on defense, and Rojas has indeed posted above-average marks with the glove.

The Dodgers will rely on Ahmed to play a similar role. Rojas went down over the weekend with forearm tightness and hasn’t played since Sunday. Los Angeles was using Enrique Hernández as their fill-in shortstop, but he’s better suited for work at second or third base and around the outfield. While the Dodgers won’t expect much at the plate from Ahmed, he’s a two-time Gold Glove winner who remains a solid or better defensive shortstop.

Ahmed figures to play everyday until Rojas or Betts comes back. He starts tonight against his old Giants teammates and will take on Robbie Ray in the lefty’s season debut, tweets Juan Toribio of MLB.com. The Dodgers could theoretically look for middle infield help before next Tuesday’s deadline, although that hasn’t seemed to be a priority thus far. Betts is expected back sometime next month and should take shortstop back over headed into the postseason. The Dodgers seem more concerned with landing impact talent who could aid them in October rather than expending prospect capital for lower-ceiling players to bridge the gap in the regular season.

The Dodgers have a full 40-man roster, but they’re reportedly going to designate right-hander Ricky Vanasco for assignment. That was expected to be the corresponding move for Clayton Kershaw returning from the 60-day injured list tomorrow. The Dodgers could DFA Vanasco today and clear space for Kershaw tomorrow. Righty Kyle Hurt is undergoing Tommy John surgery and could be transferred to the 60-day injured list if the Dodgers don’t want to expose anyone to waivers.

Kevin Kiermaier To Retire After 2024

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Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier is planning to retire after the current season, he tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “This is it, 2024 is it for me,” Kiermaier said today. “This next week will be very interesting (in terms of a potential trade). But this will be my last year playing. I’m going to give it my all the rest of the year regardless of what situation I’m in. But my body is talking to me now more than ever.”

Kevin KiermaierKiermaier, now 34, began his career in fairly humble fashion. The Rays selected him in the 31st round in 2010, a portion of the draft that no longer exists, and gave him a $75K signing bonus. He was up in the majors by 2013 and quickly drew attention with his hard-nosed style of play, running the bases aggressively while also crashing his body into walls and the ground in order to make highlight reel catches.

The reckless abandon that he had for his own health was simultaneously his greatest asset and also the thing that most frequently held him back. He has been known as one of the best defenders of the most recent era of baseball while also often missing time due to injuries.

By the end of the 2016 season, he had appeared in 365 games for the Rays. He hit 32 home runs in that time and slashed .258/.313/.425 for a wRC+ of 105. He also stole 44 bases in that stretch and received some of the strongest defensive grades in the league.

Having established himself as a solid piece of the Rays’ roster, the two sides agreed to an extension going into 2017. Kiermaier had qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player and still had four years of club control remaining at that time. The deal was a six-year pact with a $53.5MM guarantee and a $13MM club option for 2023 that included a $2.5MM buyout.

Over the life of that deal, Kiermaier continued contributing in roughly the same way that he had before. He was solid though not elite at the plate while stealing bases and providing superlative defense, though the injury concerns would mount over time. From 2017 to 2022, the six guaranteed years of his extension with the Rays, he never once reached 130 games played in a season and he only hit the 100-game mark twice. One of those years was the shortened 2020 campaign but Kiermaier spent time on the injured list due to a right hip fracture, a torn ligament in right thumb, a left thumb sprain and a left wrist sprain.

In 2022, he dealt with a torn labrum in his left hip that ultimately required season-ending surgery in July. That led the Rays to go for the $2.5MM buyout instead of picking up his $13MM club option, sending him to free agency for the first time in his career.

He was able to land a one-year, $9MM deal with the Blue Jays and then engineered a solid bounceback campaign. He slashed .265/.322/.419 for a wRC+ of 104, stole 14 bases and continued to provide his customary excellent glovework. He did go on the injured list once, suffering a right elbow laceration crashing into the outfield wall attempting to make a catch, but got into 129 games for the Jays.

He re-signed with the Jays on another one-year deal, this time securing a $10.5MM guarantee, but his results have fallen off significantly here in 2024. He did go on the IL once due to left hip flexor inflammation, returning after a minimum stay. In his 77 games for the Jays this year, he’s hit just .195/.239/.314 for a wRC+ of 55.

“The way I reflect on it, the product I put on the field now still can be good, but the effort it takes to get it to what I’ve been used to all those years, with my speed and defense and arm and everything, it’s tough,” he said to Topkin today. “I knew this year was going to be tough just with how I felt last year, and I know as the years go by it’s going to get tougher and tougher. I have my third kid coming in December, and it’s time for me to be a dad and let my body recover.” He continued: “I’m very proud and very happy,” Kiermaier said, “and it’s just been the best journey I could ever ask for. … It’s been incredible.”

Though retirement is just over the horizon, Kiermaier still has the 2024 season to get through and it remains to be seen where he will finish his career. The Jays are 45-55 at the moment and ten games back of a playoff spot, making them clear sellers prior to the July 30 trade deadline. Even before announcing his upcoming retirement, Kiermaier was a logical trade candidate as an impending free agent.

However, his value is at a low ebb, given his salary and struggles at the plate this year. A couple of weeks ago, the Jays placed him on waivers in the hopes that some other club would take the contract off their hands but they all passed. Despite clearing waivers, Kiermaier wasn’t removed from Toronto’s roster and could still be traded in the next week, though the Jays would have to eat some of his remaining salary to facilitate a deal. Despite the tepid offense this year, Kiermaier’s defensive grades are still strong and the Reds are one club that reportedly has some interest in him.

He will have a few more months to add to his career totals but has thus far played in 1,120 major league games with 890 hits. That includes 94 home runs, 59 triples and 167 doubles. He has scored 491 runs, driven in 370 and stolen 131 bases.

But he will of course be most remembered for that superb defense. From 2014 to the present, he has accrued 159 Defensive Runs Saved as a center fielder so far. That’s the most of any player in baseball at any position and doesn’t even include the 13 DRS he had in right field prior to establishing himself as Tampa’s regular in center. His 88 Outs Above Average in center that time frame are tops among outfielders and behind only infielders Francisco Lindor, Nick Ahmed and Nolan Arenado. (His time as a right fielder predated the invention of Outs Above Average.)

We at MLBTR salute Kiermaier on a fine career and wish him luck in the remainder of his playing career as well as his post-playing days.

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