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Looking For A Match In A Jonathan India Trade

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The Reds enjoyed a youth movement in 2023 as exciting youngsters like Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, and Elly De La Cruz helped to push the club into unexpected contention for much of the season, though they ultimately fell short of playoffs with an 82-80 record. The aforementioned names alongside other youngsters like Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte have created something of an infield logjam for the club when taken together, however. The club’s positional mix has gotten crowded enough that the Reds do not expect to have sufficient at-bats available to allow franchise icon Joey Votto to finish his career in Cincinnati, given the roster’s current construction.

The excess of infield options makes it a no-brainer for the Reds to at least consider dealing from that surplus, and the club seemingly did at least listen on offers for 2021 NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India, who started the season strong with a .271/.355/.439 slash line through 73 games but battled plantar fasciitis throughout the second half, with a slash line of just .201/.312/.356 in 205 trips to the plate the rest of the way. With India unlikely to move off second base in favor of another position on the diamond and the Reds reportedly interested in acquiring additional infield talent it’s fairly reasonable to expect India to once again be available this offseason, particularly given the club’s dire need for a reliable starting pitcher to pair with Hunter Greene at the front of their rotation.

While it might seem prudent to hold onto India in hopes that a full, healthy campaign from the 26-year-old in 2024 could increase his trade value, the sparse free agent class in terms of middle infield options could make India a more valuable commodity on the open market than he might otherwise seem to be. The likes of Tim Anderson, Whit Merrifield, and Amed Rosario headline the current class of free agents up the middle, all of whom India outperformed in 2023 even while battling injuries. What’s more, he could even wind up being more financially affordable than those lesser options, as he’s set to make his first trip through arbitration this offseason with an affordable price tag of just $3.7MM projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz. Adding three years of cost-controlled production from India certainly appears to be an attractive option when compared to a pricier one-year flier on Anderson or a commitment to Merrifield’s age-35 campaign after three consecutive below-average seasons offensively.

So, which teams could be a fit for the Reds to partner up with on a deal? As previously mentioned, India seems to be more or less locked into his role as a regular second baseman, meaning teams with a clear plan at the keystone for 2024 make little sense as a potential fit. That likely eliminates the Astros, Cubs, Padres, Cardinals, Yankees, Rays, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Guardians, Twins, Rangers, Phillies, A’s, Marlins, Rockies, Mets, Angels and Braves as potential suitors, as each of those clubs have either a clearly established second baseman or a surplus of potential infield options of their own. Meanwhile, the Royals and Pirates are unlikely to give up long-term pitching assets to acquire a player who could wind up blocking options within their own systems. That still leaves nine clubs that could feasibly be interested in India’s services this offseason, however. A look at how they match up…

Best Fits:

  • Dodgers: Among the clear best fits for India is the Dodgers, who were forced to move superstar outfielder Mookie Betts to the infield dirt for much of the 2023 season. While he pulled off a multi-positional role with aplomb, a middle infield acquisition that could allow Betts to return to right field full time while alleviating pressure on an infield mix of Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas, and Miguel Vargas would make a lot of sense for LA. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have plenty of interesting pitching prospects and young arms that could entice the Reds, such as Nick Frasso, Landon Knack, and Gavin Stone.
  • Mariners: Seattle is another clear fit for India’s services. The Reds and Mariners have gotten together on several deals in recent years, with Cincinnati sending the likes of Luis Castillo, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker out west while recouping key prospects such as Noelvi Marte and Brandon Williamson who helped to accelerate the club’s rebuilding process. A cut-and-dry buy-sell trade doesn’t make sense here anymore with both sides hoping to contend in 2023, but the Mariners have interesting young arms like Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Emerson Hancock who the Reds would surely be interested in acquiring. Meanwhile, second base was a problem for the Mariners in 2023, and while the addition of Josh Rojas should help shore up the position it’s easy to see how India could make sense for the club as a potential centerpiece of a deal should they decide to part with one of their young arms.
  • White Sox: Though not the obvious contenders that the other teams in this tier are, the White Sox are perhaps most desperate for middle infield help of any club with utility players Lenyn Sosa and Romy Gonzalez projected as their starting double-play duo in 2024 as things stand. They also boast one of the most enticing pitching trade chips on the market this offseason in right-hander Dylan Cease, who is controllable for the next two seasons and boasts a 3.54 ERA and 3.40 FIP over the last three seasons with a 30% strikeout rate. While a one-for-one swap of the two players seems implausible given Cease’s front-of-the-rotation potential, India could be an intriguing piece for the sides to build a larger return package around given Chicago’s needs up the middle.

Next Tier Down:

  • Blue Jays: Toronto recently lost both Matt Chapman and Whit Merrifield to free agency, creating major holes around the club’s infield. With the club firmly in the midst of their window for contention, a deal for three years of India would help solidify second base for the next three seasons while also allowing the club to focus their financial efforts on either re-signing Chapman or pursuing a left-handed outfield bat like Cody Bellinger. That being said, the Jays have some interesting young infielders such as Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement who they may be interested in giving runway to in 2024, and are in need of pitching depth of their own this offseason. While it’s certainly conceivable that the Reds could have interest in Alek Manoah as a potential change-of-scenery candidate, it’s hard to pinpoint what sort of value Manoah would have in trade this offseason on the heels of an incredible 2022 campaign and a disastrous 2023.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are in a precarious spot this offseason, with the club likely to entertain trade offers both on shortstop Willy Adames in addition to righties Corbin Burnes and Adrian Houser. Burnes, of course, would be an incredible addition to the rotation-needy Reds, while the possible departure of Adames would create a clear near for the club up the middle that could be filled by shifting Brice Turang to shortstop and acquiring India to play second base. While the fit between the two clubs is certainly a sensible one on paper, it seems unlikely that the division rivals would get together on a trade of this sort of magnitude barring the Brewers settling on a full-blown rebuild, at which point acquiring a player already into his arbitration years like India makes little sense.
  • Tigers: While Detroit may appear to be something of an unusual fit for India’s services, the club mustered a second place finish in the AL Central last season, suggesting they could be building toward more success in the coming years. While the Tigers are unlikely to be favorites for the AL Central crown in 2024, India’s three seasons of team control make him a solid fit for the club as a clear upgrade over Zack McKinstry at second base. What’s more, the Tigers have a bevy of interesting young arms from which to deal, from the type of controllable, quality arms that would require a larger package like Tarik Skubal to potentially cheaper options like Matt Manning and perhaps even Alex Faedo.

Longer Shots:

  • Red Sox: The Red Sox have a clear need at second base for the 2024 season, and India could certainly make sense to help plug that hole. Unfortunately for Boston, however, the Reds are unlikely to be interested in dealing for a player from the club’s outfield surplus like Alex Verdugo, and the Red Sox are in need of pitching help themselves this offseason. It’s not impossible to imagine a deal coming together centered around mid-rotation veteran Nick Pivetta or a younger arm like Josh Winckoski, but a hypothetical deal is further complicated by the impending arrival of Marcelo Mayer, who alongside Trevor Story would likely kick India over to DH early in his tenure with Boston, likely hampering his value to the Red Sox.
  • Giants: The Giants have Thairo Estrada as a clearly capable regular at second base already, immediately complicating the fit between the two sides. That being said, San Francisco is in clear need of offense, and adding a young, reliable second baseman like India to the club’s infield mix could allow Estrada to take on a multi-positional role. After all, he has experience at shortstop, third base, and both outfield corners in addition to the keystone. It’s hard to imagine the Giants giving up enough near-term pitching to entice the Reds to make a deal, however, given their own need for arms this offseason.
  • Nationals: The Nationals are in the midst of a protracted rebuild, immediately making them something of a dubious fit for a win-now player in his prime such as India. That being said, with three seasons of team control India would likely still be under control when Washington is ready to contend in the coming years. The club has utilized Luis Garcia at second base in recent years, though India would be an upgrade over Garcia, who has experience at shortstop and could potentially be moved elsewhere on the infield, at the keystone offensively. Washington also has a handful of young arms who could be of interest to the Reds, such as Jake Irvin or Josiah Gray, though it’s unclear if the Nationals would have an appetite for dealing a way a controllable arm at this stage in their rebuild.

Latest On Shota Imanaga’s Posting

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It was already known that left-hander Shota Imanaga would be posted this offseason, and reports out of Japan yesterday indicated that the Yokohama DeNA Baystars have officially agreed to the left-hander’s request to explore the North American market.  “If someone has a dream he wants to realize, and we think he has the ability to achieve it, we want to support that,” DeNA executive Tatsuhiro Hagiwara told the Kyodo News and other outlets.

To be clear, the Baystars have only agreed to post Imanaga, and haven’t yet officially posted the southpaw for MLB teams.  Once Imanaga’s posting window properly opens, he’ll have 45 days to negotiate with Major League clubs.  If no deal is reached within the 45 days, Imanaga will return to the Baystars for the 2024 Nippon Professional Baseball season, and he’d have to wait until next offseason to again vie for a North American contract.

The 30-year-old Imanaga is one of the more intriguing players available this winter, and MLBTR ranked him 10th on our list of the top 50 free agents of the 2023-24 class.  We’re projecting a five-year, $85MM pact for Imanaga, befitting his status as one of Japan’s top pitchers of recent years.  Imanaga is a two-time NPB All-Star, has a 3.18 ERA and 25% strikeout rate over 1002 2/3 career innings with the Baystars, and he won a gold medal with Japan’s championship team at this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Imanaga is subject to the MLB/NPB posting system, so a big league team would have to give the Baystars a posting fee on top of whatever they end up paying Imanaga.  The posting fee is worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Imanaga’s contract, with the Baystars receiving more money depending on the total value.  For instance, if Imanaga did sign for that projected $85MM, his new Major League club would owe the Baystars $14.65MM.

Despite this impressive resume, Imanaga is only the second-best NPB starter on the market, behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  MLBTR ranks Yamamoto third on our top 50 list and in line for a nine-year, $225MM commitment, based on Yamamoto’s ability and the fact that he is only 25 years old.  Yamamoto is also tied to the posting system via the Orix Buffaloes, and interestingly, Imanaga’s reps at Octagon might be aiming to keep their client out of Yamamoto’s shadow.  According to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, the Baystars might not officially post Imanaga until after Yamamoto has already signed.

This strategy carries some risk.  For one, Yamamoto’s own posting window has yet to begin, though he is expected to be made available to MLB teams relatively soon.  Even if the Buffaloes posted Yamamoto tomorrow, he would still have until December 26 to land a contract, and it seems possible he might take closer to the 45-day maximum to finalize what will likely be one of the winter’s larger contracts.  For example, since many of the same big-market clubs are pursuing both Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani, Yamamoto’s camp might see if Ohtani could sign first, thus providing more clarity on Yamamoto’s market.

Should this scenario occur, Imanaga might not be posted until sometime in January, creating a bit of a time crunch.  A 45-day window would put Imanaga close to the start of Spring Training, if Imanaga and Octagon also needed time to negotiate with clubs to find an acceptable contract.  This would leave Imanaga with less time to not just find a new team, but to acclimate himself to his new continent, new city, and new coaching staff prior to Spring Training, and it would make sense that Imanaga would want time to properly ramp up for his debut MLB debut.

On the other hand, it isn’t an uncommon tactic for an upper-tier free agent to wait until later into the offseason to sign.  If Yamamoto and some other free agent pitchers and trade candidates are off the board by the time Imanaga is available to be posted, he might have fewer suitors in general, but the remaining suitors might be more desperate (and thus more willing to get into a bidding war) to land one of the few top-tier rotation options still unsigned.

Phillies Notes: Nola, Castellanos, Front Office

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As right-hander Aaron Nola hits free agency for the first time in his career, there have been indications of mutual interest in a reunion with the Phillies, as both Nola and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have spoken publicly about a desire to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi cautions, however, that the sides are not “at all close on a reunion.” While Morosi acknowledges the “strong” relationship between Nola and the Phillies, he suggests that due to the number of teams in the market for pitching help this season, there’s a “better than 50/50” chance that Nola is able to find a better offer outside of Philadelphia.

That Nola’s camp wouldn’t look to get together on a deal with the Phillies this early in the offseason is hardly surprising. After all, the sides were unable to agree on an extension prior to the 2023 campaign, and with Nola now a free agent he figures to be one of the most attractive rotation arms on the open market this offseason to teams in need of pitching. He ranked fifth overall in MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, behind only NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Blake Snell among this offseason’s starting pitching market. That being said, there’s still reason for optimism regarding a reunion between the sides, as Morosi suggests that Nola could give the Phillies the opportunity to match if he receives a better offer elsewhere.

Of course, Nola is far from the only quality starter on the market, meaning the Phillies will have plenty of alternatives available should he depart for another club this winter. In addition to Yamamoto and Snell, left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga figure to be among the upper-tier rotation arms available this offseason. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is also available this offseason and has already been connected to the Phillies, while Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow are among the front-of-the-rotation caliber arms who could potentially be available in trade this offseason.

More from the Phillies…

  • ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that Philadelphia has “no intention” of trading outfielder Nick Castellanos this offseason. While previous reporting had indicated that the club could be open to moving Castellanos, MLBTR’s Steve Adams discussed the pitfalls in such a strategy yesterday. Given the likelihood that Philadelphia would likely have to attach a prospect or eat significant salary to move the remaining three seasons on Castellanos’s deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the club doesn’t expect to deal the two-time All Star ahead of his age-32 campaign. With Kyle Schwarber set to be the club’s regular DH and Bryce Harper poised to remain at first base long term, Castellanos figures to remain entrenched as the club’s everyday right fielder, with Brandon Marsh in left and Johan Rojas in center barring any additions to the club’s outfield mix.
  • The Phillies recently announced a series of promotions in their front office, headlined by Brian Barber being promoted to the role of assistant GM, amateur scouting and Preston Mattingly being promoted to the role of assistant GM, player development. Barber has overseen the club’s amateur drafts since joining the club following the 2019 season. Mattingly, the son of longtime player and manager Don Mattingly, joined the Phillies as director of player development at the end of the 2021 season after five years as a member of the Padres’ scouting department.

MLBTR Poll: Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff Decision

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Brewers ace Brandon Woodruff is among the most talented pitchers in the league today. In 103 starts since joining the club’s rotation full-time during the 2019 season, Woodruff has posted a 2.93 ERA (45% better than league average by measure of ERA+) with a 3.10 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate across 595 innings of work. Among pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched during that timeframe, only Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander have posted a lower ERA than Woodruff. Meanwhile, only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, and fellow Brewers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have posted a higher strikeout rate over that same timeframe.

Despite that immense talent, Woodruff struggled with injuries in 2023, making just 11 starts all season due to shoulder issues. While he managed an impressive 2.28 ERA and 29.2% strikeout rate during his limited time on the mound, the Brewers received devastating news last month when it was revealed that ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery that could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy. News that a pitcher of Woodruff’s caliber has gone under the knife is never welcome, but it’s particularly poor timing for both the right-hander and his club given Woodruff’s pending free agency following the 2024 season.

With Woodruff projected for a $11.6MM salary in his final trip through arbitration by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz, the small-market Brewers have been unexpectedly forced to reckon with the question of whether or not it’s worth devoting what would have been nearly 10% of their total 2023 payroll (per RosterResource) to one-year deal for an injured arm with an uncertain timetable for return. While initial indications were that the righty would miss most or perhaps even all of the 2024 campaign, Woodruff himself has said that it’s possible he could return to the mound “at some point” next summer. Still, even the possibility of a half-season of excellence from Woodruff doesn’t change the fact that a $11.6MM gamble on Woodruff’s health could be unwise for Brewers to make this offseason.

With star manager Craig Counsell having already jumped ship to join the Cubs, the Brewers have started off their offseason by dealing veteran first baseman and outfielder Mark Canha to the Tigers as reports have indicated that the club is willing to deal the majority of the players on their roster. What’s more, co-ace Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames both set to hit the open market in 2024 in addition to Woodruff, leaving the Brewers in a tight spot regarding their roster if they hope to continue avoiding a full-blown rebuild as they have for the past several years. That being said, even if the Brewers wind up moving Burnes and Adames this offseason, it’s unlikely they’d find much value for Woodruff on the trade market.

It’s always possible that Woodruff and the Brewers could work out a short-term extension, extending Woodruff’s club control into 2025 while providing him additional security as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. That being said, Woodruff will be 31 years old on Opening Day 2024. Delaying his free agency until he’s preparing for his age-33 season would surely compromise the right-hander’s value on the open market, making it a less than attractive option for the righty. While Woodruff has expressed a desire to remain in Milwaukee long term, he noted last month that he and the Brewers had not yet engaged in extension negotiations at that point.

With MLB’s tender deadline less than a week away, the Brewers are staring down the most significant decision of their offseason to this point: do they tender Woodruff a contract? If they do so without a pre-tender extension, they could find themselves on the hook for a salary upwards of $12MM in 2024 for a pitcher who might not be able to contribute. And while they could extend Woodruff a qualifying offer next offseason to ensure they recoup draft pick compensation for his services, there’s no guarantee that his performance in 2024 coming off injury will justify such an expenditure. At the same time, Woodruff has strong incentive to not agree to a pre-tender deal. If the Brewers ultimately decide to non-tender the 30-year-old, he’ll have the opportunity to negotiate a deal with any of MLB’s 30 clubs on the open market, giving him plenty of options as he looks for a new home with whom to rehab and hopefully pitch in 2024 and perhaps beyond.

How do MLBTR readers believe the Brewers will approach their predicament? Will they non-tender Woodruff this coming Friday if he does not agree to a pre-tender deal, allowing him to hit the open market for nothing? Or will they tender him a contract and hope to agree to a more favorable arrangement than his $11.6MM projected salary later in the offseason? Have your say in the poll below:

(poll link for app users)

Martin Maldonado Reportedly Drawing Interest From Several Teams

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Veteran catcher Martin Maldonado has been a staple of the Astros lineup in recent years, joining the club as a part-time option behind the plate in deadline deals during both the 2018 and 2019 seasons before sticking in Houston as the club’s primary catcher for the 2020-23 campaigns. Now, however, the 37-year-old veteran is a free agent for the first time since the 2019-20 offseason as the Astros plan to pivot to youngster Yainer Diaz as their primary catcher for the 2024 season.

While Maldonado is out of the starting role in Houston, he’s already drawing plenty of interest on the open market per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who reports that “4-5 teams” have checked in on the veteran already this offseason. Presumably, one of those clubs is the Astros themselves, as the two sides reportedly have mutual interest in a reunion even as Maldonado would consequently take a smaller role with the club going forward in deference to Diaz.

A 27th-round pick by the Angels in the 2004 draft, Maldonado has never been particularly outstanding with the bat. Since making his major league debut with the Brewers back in 2011, Maldonado has never posted above average offensive numbers by measure of wRC+ in a 162-game season, though he did manage a 107 wRC+ during the shortened 2020 campaign. He fell back to Earth in the following three seasons, however, slashing just .183/.260/.333 (66 wRC+) with a 31.5% strikeout rate in 355 games. Despite those offensive deficiencies, however, has generally been regarded as among the best defensive catchers in the game throughout his career.

That stellar defense took a major hit in 2023, as Statcast placed Maldonado in the first percentile among all catchers with -18 framing runs this season, after years of the metric regarding him as slightly below average at pitch framing, with -1 to -2 framing runs per year. Those iffy framing numbers were more than made up for in the past by Maldonado’s throwing arm behind the plate and blocking abilities, but those metrics dipped in 2023 as well. While the differences were only slight, they exacerbated his struggles with pitch framing in 2023 to leave him worth -1.2 fWAR this season, a bottom-five figure in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season.

Dire as those numbers look, it’s still reasonable that the Astros and other teams would have interest in Maldonado’s services next year. After all, he’s clearly well-respected as a game-caller who does a good job with a pitching staff, considering Houston’s pitching staff is second to only the Dodgers with a 3.63 ERA since Maldonado took over as the club’s primary catcher in 2020 despite ranking 10th in xFIP and 11th in SIERA over that same period of time. What’s more, a deal with Maldonado would surely be a short-term, low-cost affair given his age and difficult platform season.

Those factors could make Maldonado an attractive back-up option for teams in need of a one-year solution behind the plate, particularly for those with a young catcher who could benefit from an experienced mentor to share time with. Speculatively speaking, the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, and White Sox all have a need behind the plate this offseason, with the White Sox in particular likely to dedicate time to former Astro Korey Lee behind the plate in 2024. Lee, 25, has just 36 games of experience at the big league level and has worked with Maldonado previously, as the duo shared time behind the plate during Lee’s first big league cup of coffee in 2022.

Red Sox Notes: Turner, DH, Kluber

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Veteran free agent Justin Turner was among the most reliable hitters in Boston last year, slashing a solid .275/.345/.455 with 23 home runs and a 17.6% strikeout rate. Taken together, that offensive production was 14% better than league average by measure of wRC+ despite Turner posting his highest strikeout rate since 2014 and lowest walk rate since 2016. Though Turner declined his player option with the Red Sox and decided to test the open market ahead of his age-39 season, the infielder spoke to reporters recently (as relayed by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) regarding his free agency and his desire to return to the Red Sox.

“I would love to be back and be with the Sox,” Turner said, “…what I’ve heard from all these guys is how amazing this town is when you’re making a playoff run. I want to be a part of that. It has been A-plus across the board in everything we’ve done and that’s with finishing in fifth place in the AL East. I want to know what it’s like to play in a playoff game for the Red Sox, not against them.”

Though Turner made his desire to remain in Boston clear, he also admitted that he’s fielded interest from more teams this season than he did as a free agent last year. Cotillo notes that the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Angels all made offers to the veteran last year. The Diamondbacks are once again rumored to be interested in Turner’s services this offseason, though it’s unclear what other clubs may have interest in Turner this offseason. That uncertainty surrounds the Red Sox, themselves, as the club’s level of interest in Turner for 2024 and beyond isn’t entirely clear.

MassLive’s Sean McAdam recently suggested that the Red Sox “may be reluctant” to offer Turner a a two-year guarantee this offseason, noting that newly-minted chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has spoken of the DH as a way to rest players. While McAdam notes that Breslow would not rule out having one player serve as the club’s regular DH, a desire to utilize players such as Masataka Yoshida at DH could limit the club’s interest in a reunion with Turner, who played 98 games at DH and combined for less than 400 innings of work in the field split between first, second, and third base in 2023.

Turner isn’t the only newly-minted free agent to recently discuss his future after spending 2023 in Boston. Veteran right-hander Corey Kluber has returned to the open market after a tough season in Boston where he posted a 7.04 ERA (65 ERA+) with a 7.11 FIP in 55 innings of work while striking out just 16.3% of batters faced. On top of the brutal on-field performance, Kluber battled shoulder injuries throughout the year that ultimately left him sidelined for the season by late June. Kluber was noncommittal when asked if he intends to continue his playing career in 2024, with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relaying that the veteran righty simply responded to the question with “we’ll see.”

Given his deep struggles in Boston this season, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the sides coming together on a reunion even if Kluber decides to pitch next season. While the Red Sox are expected to make pitching help a priority this offseason, the club already has right-handers Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock as starting caliber options alongside Chris Sale for the middle-to-back of the club’s rotation, and the addition of Kluber at this stage of his career would be unlikely to move the needle for a club more in need of impact than depth in the starting rotation.

Brutal as the 2023 season was for Kluber, the righty was one of the best pitchers in the game not long ago. The 37-year-old’s illustrious career includes two AL Cy Young awards and an ERA title in 2017. While Kluber is certainly not the same pitcher he was back then, he was an effective back-end starter for the Rays and Yankees the past two seasons and could potentially draw interest from a club in need of depth this offseason, should he prove healthy enough to continue his playing career.

Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. Have Had “Some Talks Here And There” About Extension

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While the Royals’ rebuild hasn’t gone to plan overall, Kansas City does have at least one cornerstone in Bobby Witt Jr.  The second overall pick of the 2019 draft has lived up to the hype in his young career, fully breaking out with a 5.7 fWAR season in 2023 that saw Witt hit .276/.319/.495 over 694 plate appearances with 30 homers, 49 stolen bases (in 64 chances), and a league-high 11 triples.  The public defensive metrics are rather unusually split on Witt’s glovework, but at least in the view of the Outs Above Average metric, Witt’s +14 number makes him one of sport’s best defensive shortstops, to boot.

The future is very bright for the 23-year-old, and some level of discussion seems to have taken place between Witt and the Royals in regards to how much of that future will be in K.C.  Witt told Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star that “I think there is some talks here and there” in regards to a possible contract extension, “so we’re just kind of waiting to see.  I love this organization and love this team.  It’s just kind of one of those things.  If the time is right, the time’s right.”

Players and teams usually tend to keep contract negotiations quiet, especially since things between Witt and the Royals might still be somewhat in the embryonic stages.  As Thompson noted, Royals GM J.J. Picollo said last month that the club was “working on” extending Witt, and that “it would be exciting to do so, as he is a special player.  We want to keep special players in our uniform.”

To this end, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal hears from a source that the Royals are “at least entertaining the idea of approaching Witt” about an extension at some point this offseason, which implies that no formal offers have been issued or perhaps even floated towards Witt’s representatives at Octagon.  It is worth noting that there isn’t a big ticking clock on either side to fully delve into talks, as Witt is under team control through 2027 and won’t even be eligible for salary arbitration until next winter.

That said, Witt’s price tag will only increase as time goes by.  Witt is already looking at a sizeable set of increasing salaries through his arb seasons, so the Royals would surely like to gain some cost certainty for those years at the minimum.  If a larger-scale extension can’t be worked out, Witt and the Royals might explore a shorter-term deal covering just the arbitration seasons, akin to the three-year extension Bo Bichette signed with the Blue Jays last spring.

Even that type of extension would be a relatively pricey endeavor for a Kansas City franchise that has never been big spenders.  Salvador Perez’s four-year, $82MM extension prior to the 2021 season remains the largest contract in franchise history, and a long-term deal for Witt might be at least twice that amount, depending on the number of years covered.

For instance, the Rays inked Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM extension after Franco’s 2021 rookie season, which consisted of 70 MLB games.  Like Franco, Witt was also a heavily hyped shortstop prospect, but Witt now has two full productive Major League seasons under his belt, so it would seem like Octagon could surely argue that a Witt extension deserves to top Franco’s deal, and approach or top the $200MM mark.  The Braves’ Austin Riley inked a ten-year, $212MM extension when he was between two and three years of MLB service time.

Though the Rays have shown a (comparatively) greater inclination to spend lately, we haven’t yet really seen how far the Royals are willing or able to stretch their payroll under owner John Sherman.  On the one hand, Perez’s extension did take place under Sherman’s watch, as part of a relative spending spree during the 2020-21 offseason that also saw a four-year extension for Hunter Dozier, as well as two-year free agent deals for Mike Minor and Carlos Santana.  All of these moves were made with the intent of boosting what the Royals thought was a group of youngsters on the verge of a breakout, yet the team has continued to struggle.  This cost former president of baseball operations Dayton Moore his job in 2022, elevating Picollo from second-in-command to the head of the decision-making pyramid.

Some other big-picture issues cloud the financial picture.  While the bankruptcy of the Diamond Sports Group has yet to impact the Royals’ broadcasts on Bally Sports, Sherman said last spring that naturally the organization was monitoring the situation should the Royals’ TV rights payments suddenly come into question.  As well, Sherman has been trying to get a new ballpark built in Kansas City, and in some instances, owners claiming that a new stadium is critical to a team’s ability to compete don’t want to perhaps undercut that argument by then spending $200MM on a player’s contract.  That said, Rosenthal argues in the other direction, writing that a Witt extension “might help sway public sentiment” to get the ballpark project off the ground.

Even if K.C. probably aren’t going to be huge players in the offseason transaction market, the possibility of a Witt extension stands out as a notable subplot to watch — both for its importance on the Royals’ future, and as a benchmark for future extensions.  Even if the two sides are in the proverbial “talking about having some talks” phase of negotiations, expect things to get at least a little more serious as we get deeper into Spring Training, as teams tend to focus more on extensions once their offseason business is complete.

Athletics Re-Sign Yohel Pozo

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The A’s have signed catcher Yohel Pozo to a new minor league contract, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports.  Pozo will return for a second year in Oakland’s organization, after hitting an impressive .306/.338/.523 with 18 homers over 391 plate appearances at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2023.

Despite some nice on-paper production at the Triple-A level over the last two seasons, the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League tends to inflate Pozo’s numbers.  An .826 OPS over 267 PA with the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate in 2022 translated to only a 104 wRC+, and Pozo’s 2023 numbers in Las Vegas were actually below average (99 wRC+) in comparison to the rest of the PCL’s hitters.

This is probably why Pozo still hasn’t gotten another look in the big leagues since his 21-game stint with the Rangers in 2021.  Pozo hit .284/.312/.378 over 77 PA in his debut season in the bigs, which was the highlight of his nine years in the Texas organization.  (The Padres briefly had Pozo signed to a minors deal during the 2020 offseason before Texas selected him back via the minor league version of the Rule 5 Draft.)  The Rangers parted ways with Pozo last winter, allowing for the Athletics to make the signing.

In addition to catching, Pozo has also gotten a decent chunk of playing time as a first baseman during his pro career.  Still only 26 years old, Pozo will return to a depth role in the minors, as Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom will continue to get the bulk of catching assignments on the MLB roster.

Red Sox Sign Mark Contreras To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have signed outfielder Mark Contreras to a minor league contract, Baseball America’s Matt Eddy reports.  Contreras is changing teams for the first time in his pro career, as he had been a member of the Twins organization since he was selected in the ninth round of the 2017 draft, and until Minnesota released him in August.

That time in the Twin Cities did result in Contreras’ first stint as a big leaguer, as he played in 28 games for Minnesota during the 2022 season, hitting .121/.148/.293 over 61 plate appearances.  This lackluster output and the Twins’ crowded outfield picture meant that Contreras didn’t get any more MLB playing time in 2023, plus he didn’t force the issue by batting a modest .274/.352/.418 over 381 PA for Triple-A St. Paul last season.

Contreras (who turns 29 in January) has had a lot of problems avoiding strikeouts during his pro career, but he has posted decent numbers at the Triple-A level.  A solid defender who can play all three outfield positions, Contreras’ speed has helped both his defensive efforts and his offensive threat level, as he has stolen 93 bases in 126 chances during his minor league career.

With two minor league option years remaining, Contereras gives the Red Sox some possible extra depth to be kept at Triple-A should a need arise in the outfield.  Since the Twins outrighted him off their 40-man roster in August, Contreras now has the ability to reject any future outright assignments in favor of free agency, giving him a bit of extra leverage for the remainder of his career.

Cam Gallagher Elects Free Agency

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Cam Gallagher has elected to become a free agent, according to the veteran catcher’s official MLB.com profile page.  The Guardians designated Gallagher for assignment earlier this week and he presumably cleared waivers, and then opted for free agency rather than accepting an outright assignment to Cleveland’s Triple-A team.  Because Gallagher has been outrighted before in his career, he has the ability to reject any future outright assignments.

Gallagher seemed like a pretty clear non-tender candidate even before the Guardians picked up Christian Bethancourt off waivers from the Rays, which was the move that led to Gallagher’s DFA.  Over 149 plate appearances for the Guardians last season, Gallagher hit only .126/.154/.168 — this translated to an ugly -17 wRC+, the lowest of any player in baseball in 2023 with at least 140 PA.

Seven different players saw action at catcher for the Guards last season, a mess of a situation sparked when offseason acquisition Mike Zunino struggled badly at the plate.  This led to a revolving door of backstops until Zunino was designated for assignment in June, and Bo Naylor was called up from Triple-A for good.  With Naylor’s bat coming alive near the end of the season, the former top prospect looks to have solidified his role as the Guardians’ starting catcher going forward, hopefully adding some pop to a position that has long been an offensive black hole for Cleveland.

Between Naylor, Bethancourt, and utilityman David Fry able to catch once in a while, there wasn’t any room for Gallagher to vie for work as a backup.  Gallagher is projected to earn $1.3MM via the arbitration process in 2024, but it seems likely that he’ll have to settle for another minor league contract and compete for a backup job in Spring Training.

Turning 31 next month, Gallagher is a veteran of 227 MLB games over seven seasons with the Royals and Guardians, with a .211/.266/.307 slash line over 618 PA.  While the offense hasn’t been there, Gallagher is a pretty well-regarded defender, and 2023 was at least a very strong year for Gallagher with the glove.  As per Statcast’s numbers, Gallagher was solidly above average at framing and blocking, and he threw out nine of 52 baserunners for his first-ever positive (+1) grade in the Catcher Stealing Runs metric.

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