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Pedro Avila

NPB’s Tokyo Yakult Swallows Sign Pedro Avila

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The Tokyo Yakult Swallows of Nippon Professional Baseball have signed right-hander Pedro Avila, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Avila elected free agency in January rather than accept an outright assignment to the Guardians’ Triple-A team.

After posting a 2.70 ERA over the small sample size of 13 1/3 big league innings with the Padres from 2019-22, Avila received a larger role in the form of 50 1/3 frames in 2023.  An excellent 58.8% grounder rate and a solid 24.5% strikeout rate helped Avila overcome a middling 11.4% walk rate, but a shaky start early in the 2024 season led the Padres to designate the righty for assignment in April.

The Guardians picked Avila up in a cash transaction a few days after, and Avila went on to become a workhorse within the elite Cleveland bullpen.  Beyond logging 74 2/3 innings over 50 appearances, Avila also had a 3.25 ERA during his time with the Guards, though his K% slightly declined from 2023 and his grounder rate dropped to 45% (though he also cut back on the walks).  He added to that solid performance with four shutout innings in the playoffs, and he was the winning pitcher in Cleveland’s only victory of the ALCS, a 7-5 walkoff over the Yankees in Game 3.

Such production would normally have given Avila a clear ticket to a roster spot on most teams, but he is out of minor league options, and the Guardians are so deep in relief pitching that Avila became expendable.  As it turned out, the Guards designated Avila to create roster space when they signed another reliever, former Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald.

Avila’s out-of-options status might have left him in a crunch when trying to break camp with another MLB team this spring, so he’ll now head to Japan for more of a guaranteed role with the Swallows.  This is the first time the 28-year-old Avila has pitched professionally outside of affiliated baseball, apart from five stints in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Pedro Avila Elects Free Agency

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January 30: Avila has declined the assignment in favor of free agency, the team announced.

January 29: The Guardians have sent reliever Pedro Avila outright to Triple-A Columbus, according to the transaction log at MLB.com. Cleveland had designated him for assignment a week ago when they signed Paul Sewald. Avila has been outrighted once before in his career, which gives him the right to elect minor league free agency.

Avila, 28, was a bullpen workhorse this year. He took the ball 54 times and tossed 82 2/3 relief innings between the Padres and Guardians, fourth in the majors behind Ryan Yarbrough, Derek Law and Luke Weaver. While most of Avila’s work came in low-leverage relief, he managed solid results. Avila turned in a 3.81 earned run average with a decent 23.2% strikeout percentage and 45% grounder rate. The righty had a slightly higher than average 10.2% walk rate, but he was generally an effective bullpen piece for skipper Stephen Vogt. He added four scoreless innings during the postseason.

That was Avila’s second straight decent year. He provided San Diego 50 1/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball while striking out nearly a quarter of opponents in 2023. That makes it somewhat surprising that he didn’t attract any interest on the waiver wire. Avila is out of minor league options, though, so any team that claimed him would’ve needed to keep him in the MLB bullpen or designate him themselves. Apparently no team was willing to commit him a roster spot.

As mentioned, Avila now decides whether to stick with the Guardians or test the market. That he went unclaimed on waivers suggests he’d probably be looking at a minor league deal with a non-roster Spring Training invite if he elects free agency.

Guardians Sign Paul Sewald

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The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve signed free agent reliever Paul Sewald to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2026 season. He’s represented by ISE Baseball. The righty is reportedly guaranteed $7MM on the deal, which will be paid out in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, a $5MM salary, and a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. Sewald can also earn an extra $100K for reaching each of 40, 45, 50, 55 and 60 relief appearances in 2025, giving him the opportunity to earn a total of $7.5MM on the deal.

Righty Pedro Avila has been designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster, per the club announcement. Cleveland also signed right-hander Riley Pint to a minor league deal. The Excel client will be invited him to spring training.

Sewald, 35 in May, is coming off a bit of a frustrating year. He opened the 2024 season on the injured list due to a left oblique strain and missed a bit more than a month, getting reinstated by the Diamondbacks on May 7. Once back on the mound, the results weren’t up to his previous standard, which got him bumped from Arizona’s closing gig in August. He landed back on the IL in September due to neck discomfort and wrapped up the campaign there.

In the end, he tossed 39 2/3 innings on the year, allowing 4.31 earned runs per nine. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate were still good numbers but were worse than his previous form. From 2021 to 2023, between the Mariners and Diamondbacks, he threw 189 1/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA, 33.9% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate.

The Guardians are seemingly making a bet on a bounceback, which there is some justification for. Most of his struggles last year were during a short period of time where he seemed to be a bit unlucky. In the month of July, he allowed 12 earned runs in 10 innings, just before losing the closer’s job. Since he only allowed 19 earned runs all year, that was the majority of them. During that month, he allowed a .469 batting average on balls in play and had a 56.2% strand rate, which are both on the unfortunate side. That’s why his 3.94 SIERA was miles better than his 10.80 ERA that month.

Sewald averaged 91.4 miles per hour on his fastball last year, which was down from being in the 92-93 mph range in the previous three seasons, but it’s possible that his two injuries played a role there. With a bit better health, perhaps the Guards can get more of the 2021-23 Sewald than the ’24 version.

Though betting on Sewald is a perfectly sensible thing to do, it’s a bit of a curious path for the Guards at first glance. Cleveland had the best bullpen in the majors in 2024 and it wasn’t close. Their relief corps had a collective 2.57 ERA in 2024, with the Brewers coming a distant second at 3.11. They traded Nick Sandlin to the Blue Jays as part of the Andrés Giménez deal last month but still have Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and others.

Given that the team doesn’t usually run huge budgets, the most straightforward way for them to allocate their resources this winter would be to upgrade the offense. The Guards hit .238/.307/.395 as a team last year, which was exactly league average. They are going into 2025 with a fairly similar group of position players. They traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and then signed Carlos Santana, a roughly cash-neutral move since Santana’s salary will be fairly close to Naylor’s this year. They subtracted Giménez, who is more of a glove-first player, but now second base projects to go to a fairly unproven player like Juan Brito or Ángel Martínez.

Perhaps the Guardians will line up a trade with one of their other relievers but it’s also possible that they see the value in leaning into their strength by further upgrading the relief corps. Relievers tend to be the most volatile part of a roster these days, with regression and/or injuries entirely possible, so having another experienced arm in the mixes hedges against that.

Avila, 28, has posted some solid but not outstanding results in his career thus far. Between the Padres and Guardians, he has thrown 146 1/3 innings in his career with a 3.51 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 49.2% ground ball rate.

He exhausted his final option year with the Friars in 2023, which gave him a tenuous hold on a roster spot. He struggled out of the gate last year, which led to him being flipped to Cleveland. He ultimately finished the year with a 3.81 ERA in 82 2/3 innings.

Despite a solid campaign, Avila’s out-of-options status and a crowded Cleveland bullpen were going to make it hard for him to keep a roster spot all year, so he’s been nudged off today. The Guards will now have a week of DFA limbo to figure out what’s next, whether that’s a trade or a fate on waivers. Since the waiver process takes 48 hours, any trades would have to come together in the next five days.

Any acquiring team would have to deal with the same lack of options, though a team with a less-elite bullpen might be more able to manage that. Avila’s results have been decent and he still has less than two years of service time, meaning he hasn’t yet qualified for arbitration and could be cheaply controlled for as many as five seasons.

Pint, 27, was taken by the Rockies with the fourth overall pick in 2016. He was a top 100 prospect for a while but struggled badly with control in the minors and decided to retire in 2021. At that point, he had thrown 166 2/3 innings on the farm with a 5.56 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate.

He un-retired in 2022 and posted decent results that year. He threw 45 2/3 innings across multiple levels with a 4.53 ERA, 56.6% ground ball rate and 29.1% strikeout rate, though the walks were still high at 15.6%. The Rockies were encouraged enough to give him a roster spot to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft.

He spent most of the past two years as optionable depth for Colorado. He has just 3 2/3 major league innings on his track record, having allowed nine earned runs for an unseemly 22.09 ERA. He has struck out seven opponents but given out eight walks and plunked another two batters. Obviously, the minor league numbers have been better. He had a 3.92 ERA in 41 1/3 innings on the farm last year, striking out 36.3% of batters faced but also giving out walks at a massive 20.7% clip. He was outrighted by the Rockies in August and elected free agency at season’s end.

Pint is obviously still a project but the Guardians have a strong reputation for working with pitchers, so it’s understandable why they’d take a shot on a former top prospect without having to give up a roster spot. If he gets added to the roster at any point, he still has an option remaining and just a few days of service time.

With Sewald now added to the books, RosterResource estimates the club’s total commitments at $96MM for this year. They opened last year at $98MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. After making the postseason last year, perhaps there’s a payroll bump coming. But on the other hand, the club has no broadcast deal for this year. Their deal with Diamond Sports Group, now known as Main Street Sports, expired last year. MLB is going to be handling the broadcasts this year, an arrangement that is sure to lead to less revenue.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported Sewald’s $7MM salary, with Zack Meisel of The Athletic reporting the specific breakdown.

Guardians Add Pedro Avila To ALCS Roster

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The Guardians set their roster for their ALCS showdown with the Yankees and announced only one change from their ALDS roster: infielder/outfielder Angel Martinez has been swapped out for right-handed reliever Pedro Avila.

Martinez, 22, was a mid-series addition to the ALDS roster, taking the place of Tyler Freeman after he suffered a left oblique strain. Freeman didn’t get into a game during the Division Series but sustained the injury during a simulated game ramping up for that round of play. Martinez took his spot on the roster but only wound up tallying one plate appearance. With the Guards now facing down a best-of-seven series, they’ll opt for an additional arm in the bullpen rather than a switch-hitting utilityman off the bench.

Avila, 27, was acquired from the Padres in exchange for cash back in April after San Diego had designated him for assignment. He went on to play a major role as a multi-inning option out of Stephen Vogt’s bullpen, appearing in 50 games and tallying 74 2/3 innings with Cleveland. Along the way, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA, fanned 23% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9.4% clip and kept 43.1% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground.

Avila was primarily used in lower-leverage spots and will presumably work in a similar capacity if called upon in the ALCS. He had several appearances spanning more than one frame in 2024, topping out with a handful of three-inning outings.

The ALCS will kick off tonight in New York at 7:38pm ET, when the Guards send veteran righty Alex Cobb to the mound against Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon. Neither has fared particularly well in the postseason thus far. Game 2 will feature a battle of staff aces when Cleveland sends young Tanner Bibee to the mound against 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the mound in Game 3 on Thursday. The Guardians have not yet announced a starter in Game 3. Matthew Boyd and Gavin Williams are the only two other starters on the roster.

Overall, Cleveland’s ALCS roster breaks down as follows:

Catchers

Infielder

Outfielders

Pitchers

The Guardians’ Bullpen Has Been Transformative

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Coming into 2024, the expectations for the Guardians were modest. They finished 76-86 last year and didn’t do much in the offseason. They made a few small trades, and their largest free agent signing was giving catcher Austin Hedges $4MM to be a glove-first backup to Bo Naylor.

Many in the baseball world expected the Twins to repeat as champions in the Central, since they ran away with it last year. Others suggested the Tigers or Royals as potential upstarts, as both of those clubs made some intriguing offseason moves to supplement their young cores. However, more than two months into the seasons, the Guardians are up top with a 43-23 record, five games ahead of the second-place Royals. That hot start is largely due to the Cleveland bullpen.

The club has sometimes found surprise success in the past based on strong starting pitching, but that hasn’t been the case this time. Shane Bieber required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. Gavin Williams has been on the injured list all year due to his own elbow issues. They’ve gotten some decent results from Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively, but Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Carlos Carrasco and Xzavion Curry have been mediocre or just bad. The rotation has a collective 4.23 earned run average that places them 18th out of the 30 clubs in MLB.

The offense has undoubtedly played a role in the club’s success this year, certainly more than last year. The team hit .250/.313/.381 overall for a wRC+ of 92 last year, 22nd in the league. After their quiet offseason, not much was expected out of the lineup in 2024, but they are currently hitting .239/.318/.398. That line isn’t markedly different from last year’s, but with offense down around the league, it actually translates to a 107 wRC+. That puts them eighth in the league, pretty good but not elite.

The bullpen, however, has been in a class of its own. Cleveland’s relief core has an ERA of 2.33, easily the best mark in the majors. The Dodgers are second at 2.92, a gap of more than half a run. The Brewers are in fifth place at 3.34, more than a full run behind. Here’s how it breaks down individually, sorted by innings pitched…

  • Emmanuel Clase: 32 1/3 innings pitched, 0.84 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 2.5% walk rate, 54.4% ground ball rate
  • Hunter Gaddis: 31 1/3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 23.7 K%, 4.2 BB%, 36.1 GB%
  • Cade Smith: 30 1/3 IP, 1.78 ERA, 34.5 K%, 6 BB%, 47.8 GB%
  • Nick Sandlin: 28 1/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 26.5 K%, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 GB%
  • Scott Barlow: 27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 30.8 K%, 12 BB%, 51.5 GB%
  • Tim Herrin: 27 IP, 1.00 ERA, 25.5 K%, 10.8 BB%, 43.5 GB%
  • Pedro Avila: 23 1/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 29.2 K%, 5.2 BB%, 48.4 GB%
  • Sam Hentges: 13 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 33.3 K%, 2.1 BB%, 44.8 GB%

They also got some poor results from Tyler Beede as well as some small contributions from Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki and Wes Parsons, though none of those four are on the active roster at the moment. Of the eight guys currently in the mix, none of them has an ERA higher than Barlow’s 3.67. The league-average strikeout rate for relievers in the majors this year is 22.8%, meaning everyone in this group is ahead of the curve. Only Barlow and Herrin have walk rates worse than the 9.3% league average. The 43.4% league-wide ground ball rate is bested by everyone except Gaddis and Sandlin.

Relievers are notoriously volatile, and it’s fair to assume the entire group can’t stay this dominant forever. Most of the group have really low batting averages on balls in play, which could be related to the club’s strong defense, but there’s likely still some luck-based correction coming. League-average BABIP is .286 this year, but Gaddis, Clase, Herrin, Hentges and Sandlin are respectively at .232, .228, .203, .200 and .164.

But even if regression is coming, there’s still lots of good stuff going on and there are plenty of wins in the bank. The Guardians have gone 11-8 in one-run games and 6-2 in extra innings, no doubt thanks to this group of relievers.

The strong bullpen vaulting them to the top of the standings surely impacts their upcoming deadline plans. Last year, as the club was hovering around .500, they tried to walk the buy-sell line. They traded Aaron Civale to the Rays for Kyle Manzardo, a move that clearly downgraded the club at that time but could eventually work out in the long run if Manzardo clicks. They also made a couple of change-of-scenery swaps, sending Amed Rosario to the Dodgers for Noah Syndergaard in addition to flipping Josh Bell to the Marlins for Jean Segura and Kahlil Watson. Segura was released immediately and Syndergaard about a month later.

This year, they should be more firmly in the buyers’ camp and should have plenty of flexibility in what they can do. Relievers are generally cheaper than other players in terms of salary but can be pricey trade acquisitions at the deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer put it this way at last year’s deadline, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune: “The price to go get a rental reliever or even a controllable reliever this time of year is often cost prohibitive. And so, to me, it just underscores the value of developing those guys yourself.”

With the results so far this year, the Guardians should have less need than any other club to shop in that aisle, freeing them up to focus on starting pitching or the lineup. Acquiring those kinds of players can also be pricey, but the Guards should have lots of wiggle room to make things work. Their tepid offseason means their payroll is relatively light, certainly by league standards but even by their own. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they had an Opening Day payroll of $98MM. They were in the $120-135MM range in the three pre-pandemic years, so perhaps there’s an ability to take on a notable contract from another club with minimal prospect cost.

In the longer term, Bieber and Barlow are coming off the books this winter, subtracting respective salaries of $13.125MM and $6.7MM. Lesser contracts for Hedges, Carrasco and Ramón Laureano will also be expiring. Some of those savings will be needed for arbitration raises to McKenzie and Josh Naylor, but there’s only $45MM on the books for next year as of right now, mostly for José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez.

At least part of the reason the budget is so low is that the bullpen has largely been built on the cheap. Clase was acquired as a prospect and signed a team-friendly extension while still in his pre-arb years, making just $2.5MM this year. Gaddis, Hentges, Sandlin and Herrin are all Cleveland draftees making less than $1.2MM. Smith went undrafted in 2020, when the pandemic reduced the draft to just five rounds, and is still pre-arb. Avila is also pre-arb, acquired from the Padres in a cash deal after being designated for assignment in April. Barlow, an offseason trade acquisition, is in his final arbitration season and making the highest salary of the bunch at $6.7MM.

But even if they don’t want to be taking on significant money, the Guardians could make deals happen with prospect capital. Their farm system isn’t especially strong, with evaluators generally putting in the middle of the pack. FanGraphs puts them 13th, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline both put them 19th, while Keith Law of The Athletic puts them in the 22nd spot.

However, they are about to get a huge boost in a month’s time when the 2024 draft takes place. The Guardians can always count on a strong draft since they’re a small-market club and get competitive balance picks, but they also won the draft lottery in December, meaning they get the No. 1 overall pick despite having the ninth-best odds of doing so. That should allow them to bump their farm system up in those rankings when the draft takes place from July 14 to 16. And while they can’t trade the players they draft until after the season (nor can they use the player-to-be-named-later loophole to do so), a fresh influx of high-end talent will lessen the sting of dealing some prospects they already have in-house.

All of these factors will put them in a very interesting position when the deadline approaches on July 30. Even if they hit a slump in the next month or so, falling back a bit in the standings would still have them not just in playoff position but in contention for the division. The Central has been weak in the past, leaving those clubs to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. But they are stronger this year with the Royals and Twins both currently holding Wild Card spots. Even if one of those two can gain ground on Cleveland, it wouldn’t significantly dampen their buyer position.

When the Guardians do start lining up deals, they should have plenty of options thanks to their financial position and the infusion of young talent that the farm system is about to receive from the draft. Adding to the rotation and the lineup will likely be the priorities and they should have every ability to do just that, with a big thanks to their elite bullpen.

Guardians Acquire Pedro Avila

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April 17: The teams announced that Avila has been traded from San Diego to Cleveland in exchange for cash. In a corresponding 40-man move, the Guards transferred infielder Angel Martinez from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day injured list.

April 16: The Guardians are acquiring right-hander Pedro Avila from the Padres, reports Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase (on X). San Diego had designated Avila for assignment last week.

Avila has had a tough start to the 2024 campaign. The Venezuelan-born pitcher has allowed eight runs in as many innings over his first four appearances. Avila has fanned nine but issued six walks and tossed three wild pitches. Inconsistent command has been an issue throughout the 27-year-old’s big league tenure. Avila has walked nearly 12% of batters faced over his 71 2/3 career innings.

While he has yet to find sustained success, Avila has shown the ability to miss bats at the highest level. He has punched out nearly a quarter of opponents in his career behind a solid 11.7% swinging strike rate. Avila’s fastball velocity is more solid than standout (typically 93-94 MPH) but his changeup has been a reliably excellent swing-and-miss offering.

Avila has come out of the bullpen for 14 of his 22 major league outings. He’s been a starter in the minors, although his recent rotation work was not effective. He was tagged for an unsightly 8.57 ERA over 19 appearances (15 of them starts) in the Pacific Coast League last season. That pushed his career Triple-A earned run average to 5.59 in 190 innings. Avila has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate at that level, where he has handed out free passes at a lofty 11.2% clip.

Since he’s out of options, Avila can’t be sent to the minors without going through waivers. The Guardians figure to give him a look in the MLB bullpen as a long reliever. Cleveland has a fair bit of roster flexibility in that regard. Of their current middle innings group, only Tyler Beede can’t be optioned.

Despite their inexperience, the Guards’ bullpen has been excellent in the early going. They went into play Wednesday with an MLB-best 1.76 ERA and the league’s fourth-highest strikeout rate (27.6%). Cleveland has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once Avila’s acquisition is finalized.

Padres Designate Pedro Avila For Assignment

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The Padres announced that they have recalled left-hander Adrián Morejón from Triple-A El Paso, with right-hander Pedro Avila designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Avila, now 27, has bounced on and off the Padres’ roster over the years. Initially acquired from the Nationals in the 2016 trade that sent Derek Norris to Washington, Avila was added to the 40-man roster in November of 2018. At the end of 2019, he was non-tendered and re-signed to a minor league deal. He got his roster spot back in October of 2021 but was outrighted in June of 2022, before getting selected to the roster yet again a few months later in November.

Amid all of those transactions, Avila spent much of his time on optional assignment. He has pitched in parts of five major league seasons but only has 71 2/3 innings to his name at the big league level. 50 1/3 of those came last year, as he put up a 3.22 earned run average for the Friars. His 11.4% walk rate last year was on the high side but he managed to punch out 24.5% of batters faced while getting grounders on 58.8% of balls in play.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carry those results over into 2024, at least in the early going. He’s thrown eight innings this year with eight earned runs having come around to score. He struck out nine batters but also walked eight.

Over his years as a Padre, Avila has burned through all of his options and can’t be removed from the active roster without also being removed from the 40-man. The Friars will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.

Padres Make Four Roster Moves

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The Padres made four pitching moves today, including the activation of left-hander Tom Cosgrove from the 15-day injured list.  San Diego also called up right-hander Pedro Avila from Triple-A, while optioning southpaw Ray Kerr to Triple-A and placing righty Drew Carlton the 15-day IL due to right elbow inflammation.

Carlton signed a minor league contract during the offseason, and was promoted to San Diego’s active roster in the middle of May.  Pitching mostly in multi-inning relief situations, Carlton has a 4.35 ERA, 21.2% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate over 20 2/3 frames.  That ERA took a hit in yesterday’s game, as Carlton allowed three runs (two earned) in two-thirds of an inning, including a walkoff homer from the Reds’ Spencer Steer.  It isn’t known whether Carlton’s elbow issue developed during the game, or if he was trying to pitch through some soreness.

Cosgrove returns from the IL after missing only the minimum 15 days with a strained left hamstring.  A 12th-round pick for the Padres in the 2017 draft, the 27-year-old made his MLB debut this season and has made a very solid impression in his first 17 innings in the Show.  Cosgrove has a tiny 0.53 ERA and 3.4% walk rate, as well as a solid 25.9% strikeout rate.  His SIERA is naturally higher (3.00), as Cosgrove has a perfect 100% strand rate and he has benefited from a .158 BABIP.  Still, it’s not a bad showing at all for a pitcher who wasn’t really on the radar for a call-up heading into 2023, but Cosgrove has pitched well enough to retain his spot in the Padres’ bullpen.

Looking At The Padres’ Rotation Options

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The Padres have been quite aggressive in recent years on all fronts, from signing free agents to trading for stars and extending their own players. That has shot their budget up to record heights, with Roster Resource currently estimating their payroll at $250MM. Up until a few years ago, they had only barely nudged past the $100MM mark, jumping to $174MM in 2021 and $211MM last year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Despite all that aggression, they’re going into the season with uncertainty in their rotation, both in the short-term and long-term. They should have a strong front three this year in Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That leaves two question marks at the back, since Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea reached free agency and signed elsewhere. Darvish and Snell are both slated to reach free agency after this year, opening up more holes in the future. MacKenzie Gore’s inclusion in the Juan Soto trade also weakened the future outlook. So, who do they have on hand to step up and take these jobs? Let’s take a look at the candidates.

Nick Martinez

Martinez, 32, spent four seasons in Japan and parlayed that into a four-year deal with the Padres going into 2022, a deal that allowed him to opt out after each season. Last year was a mixed bag for Martinez, as he logged 106 1/3 innings with a 3.47 ERA. That’s solid production overall but it came in the form of a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 innings as a starter and a 2.67 mark in 54 innings as a reliever.

Martinez opted out and re-signed with the club on another deal, this time on a three-year pact. The details are unusually complex as there are plenty of incentives, as well as a dual club/player option structure. Whether he can find better results as a starter this time around remains to be seen. It’s certainly a risk for the Friars but at least it seems he comes with the floor of helping out the bullpen.

Should Martinez truly establish himself as a starter, the club will be able to keep him around. Martinez will get paid a $10MM base salary this year and the team will then have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. That affords them a bit more control over his future than his previous opt-out laden deal. However, if Martinez does not have a successful campaign and they turn down that option, he will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. That gives the Friars upside and downside potential in the pact. Those dollar figures can also reportedly change based on incentives, though the exact details aren’t known.

Seth Lugo

Lugo, 33, is a somewhat similar situation to Martinez, as he could potentially wind up in the rotation or in the bullpen. He made 23 starts in 2017-18 but only seven since, largely working as a reliever. That move was at least partially motivated by a “slight” tear that was discovered in his right ulnar collateral ligament in 2017.

Regardless, Lugo has served as an effective reliever since then, posting a 3.56 ERA over the past two years, and there’s some hope that his five-pitch mix can help him transition back into a rotation. It’s another risky move that the Padres were willing to take, giving Lugo two years and $15MM, with Lugo able to opt-out after the first. He hasn’t topped 80 innings in a season since 2018 and it’s hard to know how smooth this switch will be.

If it goes well, there won’t be any long-term upside for the club, since Lugo will make a $7.5MM salary but can opt out of the same figure for 2024. If the experiment works, he’s likely to return to free agency and find a larger guarantee. If it fails, the Padres will still be on the hook for another season.

Adrián Morejón

Morejón, 24 in February, has long been one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the league. Baseball America placed him on their top 100 list for five straight years beginning in 2017. Various injuries slowed him during his ascent to the majors and he’s yet to even pitch 70 official innings in any season of his career, majors or minors or combined.

Tommy John surgery in April of 2021 wiped out most of that season. He returned to health in 2022 but pitched in relief. The club reportedly still views him as a starter but he will likely have workload concerns this year. Between the majors and the minors last year, he logged 47 1/3 frames. He should be able to push that up now that he’s further removed from the surgery, but getting to a full starter’s workload would be a lot to ask. He has just over three years of MLB service time now, giving him the ability to provide some long-term help to the club’s rotation if he stays healthy and makes good on his prospect pedigree in 2023.

Jay Groome

Groome, 24, was a 12th overall pick of the Red Sox in 2016. He was once a highly-touted prospect but has hit various speed bumps. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 and most of his 2019, which was followed by the minors being canceled by the pandemic in 2020. He has since returned to health and posted decent results but with some of the prospect shine having worn off.

In 2022, which included a trade to the Padres in the Eric Hosmer deal, he pitched 144 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. The 3.44 ERA is nice, but his 22.8% strikeout rate is right around average and his 10.4% walk rate was on the concerning side. He’s yet to reach the majors and arguably has the greatest chance to provide future value to the club with his six seasons of control and one remaining option year.

Brent Honeywell Jr.

Honeywell, 28 in March, is also a former top prospect. A Rays draftee, he was on BA’s top 100 in five straight seasons from 2016-20. Similar to Morejón and Groome, injuries have prevented him from reaching his potential thus far. Tommy John surgery in 2018 put him on the shelf and he has dealt with various setbacks since then. He was healthy enough to toss 86 innings in 2021 between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham, with the club then dealing him to Oakland. However, more injury setbacks resulted in just 20 1/3 minor league innings for the A’s last year.

Honeywell seems to be healthy again at the moment, as he’s tossed 28 innings in the Dominican Winter League. His 0.96 ERA in that time seems to have been enough to impress the Padres, as they signed him to their 40-man roster last week. It would make for a terrific bounceback story if he were to finally put it all together, but it’s hard to bank on him after hardly pitching in the past five years. He still has less than a year of service time, giving the Padres plenty of upside if it all clicks, but Honeywell is also out of options and will have to produce in the big leagues right away to hang onto his roster spot.

Reiss Knehr/Pedro Avila/Ryan Weathers

These three are all on the 40-man roster and warrant a mention, though they are unlikely to be called upon except in an emergency. All three of them have gotten some big league time in recent seasons, getting fairly brief showings in swing roles. Weathers probably has the most upside of the trio since he’s just 23 whereas the others are going into their respective age-26 seasons. Weathers was considered a top 100 prospect going into 2021 but he has a 5.49 ERA in the big leagues so far and posted a 6.73 ERA in 123 Triple-A innings last year, getting bumped to the bullpen as the season wore on.

Wilmer Font

Font, 33 in May, is a real wild card. He was a journeyman in the majors for many years but went to Korea to play in the KBO in 2021. Over the last two years, he’s been pitching at an ace level for the SSG Landers. He made 25 starts in 2021 with a 3.46 ERA and then 28 starts last year with a 2.69 mark. In that latter season, he got strikeouts at a 23.3% rate, walking only 4.7% of batters faced and he got ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play.

Success overseas doesn’t always translate to success in the majors, but Font wouldn’t be the first pitcher to underwhelm in North America but then return after a breakout elsewhere, with Miles Mikolas and Merrill Kelly some of the recent examples. Font isn’t currently on the 40-man and will have to earn his way back into the mix but he will be an interesting one to watch.

Julio Teheran/Aaron Brooks

These two veterans have also been brought aboard on minor league deals. Teheran spent 2022 in Indy ball and the Mexican League, posting some decent numbers in 13 starts between various clubs. He then went to the Dominican for winter ball and has posted a 3.49 ERA through eight starts there. He had a solid run with the Braves earlier in his career but got lit up in 2020 with a 10.05 ERA and then was injured for most of 2021.

Brooks was great in the KBO in 2020 and 2021, posting a 2.79 ERA over 36 starts in that time. However, his attempted return to the majors didn’t go well. He made five relief appearances for the Cardinals with a 7.71 ERA and got outrighted to the minors. In 15 Triple-A appearances, 13 starts, his ERA was 5.56.

All told, the Padres have lots of options here but all of them have question marks. There’s a handful of faded prospects who still need to put injury concerns in the rearview mirror and another handful of veteran swingmen who still might end up better suited to the bullpen than the rotation. Musgrove-Darvish-Snell gives them a strong front three, meaning the Padres only really need a couple of these guys to step up. On the other hand, they are one injury away from someone in this group suddenly being in the #3 slot.

The Padres could always supplement their staff between now and Opening Day, but recent reporting has suggested they don’t have much more payroll space to work with. If they want to go the trade route, there are certainly options, such as the Marlins having plenty of arms available and the Brewers perhaps in a similar boat.

Padres Select Pedro Avila, Outright Austin Adams

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The Padres announced they’ve selected right-hander Pedro Avila onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from reaching minor league free agency this evening. San Diego also announced that reliever Austin Adams went unclaimed on waivers and elected free agency.

Avila has spent a fair bit of time on the Friars 40-man roster, but he’s barely pitched at the MLB level. He has just four career appearances, although they’ve been spread over three seasons. This year consisted of two MLB relief appearances before the Friars outrighted him to Triple-A El Paso in June. He spent the rest of the year there, starting 24 of 30 outings and working to a 4.58 ERA over 112 innings in a hitter-friendly environment. He punched out an above-average 26.1% of opponents against a slightly elevated 10.3% walk percentage.

The Padres clearly value Avila enough to keep him from departing to kick off the offseason, although it remains to be seen if he’ll hold his roster spot all winter. He still has a minor league option year remaining, so the Pads can shuttle him between San Diego and El Paso as rotation depth if he keeps his 40-man spot.

Adams only made two relief appearances this year before being shut down with a forearm strain. He underwent flexor surgery in August and appears unlikely to be ready for the start of the 2023 campaign. The Padres never looked likely to tender him a projected $1MM arbitration contract as a result. The 31-year-old had a 4.10 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout percentage in 2021 and will be a depth option for teams once he’s healthy.

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