Phillies Move Nick Pivetta To Bullpen
The Phillies will shift righty Nick Pivetta into the bullpen, manager Gabe Kapler tells reporters including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He’ll be available in a relief capacity beginning this evening.
This’ll be the second time that the 26-year-old has been bumped from his rotation spot. The first time, he was sent down to Triple-A in hopes he’d be able to work out the kinks. Pivetta has mostly struggled since returning to the majors and currently owns a 5.74 ERA over 69 innings, with 7.6 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 and 16 long balls marring his record.
The expectation is that lefty Drew Smyly will step right into the open rotation spot. His recently reported deal still is not official, but he’s now clearly destined to move onto the MLB roster if and when it hits the book.
Pivetta threw 2 1/3 hitless innings before his latest appearance was interrupted by rain, but he also allowed four walks to go with his four strikeouts. He’s now carrying an ugly 15:13 K/BB ratio in his past 24 frames over a five-start stretch. After turning in a 12.0% swinging-strike rate in 2018, he’s sitting at 9.3% this year.
It’ll be interesting to see how the hard-throwing Pivetta functions in a relief role. Already a hard thrower, with a fastball that has traditionally been clocked at around 95 mph, it’s certainly possible his stuff will play up in shorter bursts. Whether the Phils will consider utilizing him in a multi-inning capacity remains to be seen.
The Phillies are also curious to find out what they’ll get. Kapler says the team elected to bump Pivetta to a relief role rather than Vince Velasquez because the latter has already shown the organization what he looks like in each spot. (Via Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia, on Twitter.)
Even as they hope for a boost from Smyly, the Phillies are said to be looking hard at other possible rotation upgrades. Given the team’s situation in the standings, though, it’s arguable that it shouldn’t push too hard for near-term improvements. It seems likely that the club will target hurlers who are controllable and/or require mostly cash (rather than prospects) to acquire.
Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets
July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.
July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner. Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.
The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market. As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.
Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation. Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery. Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.
Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent. This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.
This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books. While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility. Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.
Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM. The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.
Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list. While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.
Phillies To Sign Drew Smyly
9:15am: Smyly could make a start for the Phillies as soon as this weekend, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. That’d certainly suggest that his agreement with Philadelphia is of the Major League variety.
6:56am: The Phillies have agreed to a contract with left-hander Drew Smyly, reports Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported last night that Smyly, who opted out of a minor league deal with the Brewers yesterday, was drawing interest from the Phils.
Smyly opened the season with the Rangers, who acquired him at the beginning of the 2018-19 offseason when the Cubs needed to shed his salary in order to exercise their option on Cole Hamels. Smyly had signed a two-year, $10MM contract with Chicago, knowing that his first season would be spent rehabbing from 2017 Tommy John surgery.
At the time, the deal looked like a potential high-reward pickup for Texas. Smyly had solid career numbers prior to his surgery — 3.74 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 — and had shown a penchant for missing bats while limiting walks. A return to that form would’ve given the Rangers at least a solid trade chip and at best could’ve fueled a surprise postseason push.
Instead, the Rangers received a worst-case scenario. In his first MLB work since that Tommy John operation, Smyly was hammered for an 8.42 ERA with 9.1 K/9, 6.0 BB/9 and an eye-popping 3.33 HR/9 mark. Home runs have always been a bit of an issue for Smyly, an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but the league-wide home run boom has proven particularly problematic for the southpaw. Texas ultimately released him last month, and Milwaukee picked him up on a minor league deal on July 1.
His time with the Brewers was brief but a bit more encouraging. Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work.
Philadelphia currently has an all-right-handed rotation, and they’ve received particularly shaky work from fourth and fifth starters Nick Pivetta (5.74 ERA in 69 innings) and Vince Velasquez (4.97 ERA in 50 2/3 innings). The Phillies have also gotten 10 starts out of Jerad Eickhoff (5.40 ERA) and three from Cole Irvin (5.60 ERA) with little success to show for it. While Smyly himself is somewhat of a shot in the dark at this point, there’s little harm in taking a look to see if he can help the big league club. The Rangers are on the hook for Smyly’s salary, so the Phillies need only pay him the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the active roster.
Can The Phillies Justify A Win-Now Deadline?
It’s obvious on the face of the standings that the Phillies haven’t been playing great ball. After setting the pace in the NL East through early June, the club took a spill (dropping 11 of 13) and has limped along ever since at about a .500 rate of play. The Braves are largely cruising. The Nats just streaked past. The Mets are even back on their feet and in pursuit.
This is what all of that looks like in Fangraphs form: a bunch of jagged lines that signify devastating changes to the Phillies’ odds of appearing in the postseason. That chart, at least, shows that there’s still at least something like a one-in-five chance … at a coin-flip game to get a full playoff series. The division is the real prize. How are things looking there? Well, the descending jags are beginning to flatline.
More worrying still is the fact that the Phillies’ record may not even accurately reflect the team’s true state. Entering play today, the club was carrying a negative-20 run differential. By measure of BaseRuns — which looks not at actual runs or actual wins, but reasonably expected runs (and by translation wins) based upon underlying performance — the Phils have outperformed their theoretical win expectancy by a whopping seven games. The good news is that the team does not actually sit five games below .500. The bad news is that they have (broadly speaking) played like such a team, and project to play sub-.500 ball going forward.
I can already hear some readers’ alarm bells going off … what happened didn’t really quite happen? you can predict the future? Phooey! None of those fancy stats are gospel, true, though they do provide critical context for understanding outcomes that necessarily depend upon a vast array of factors. And it’s not as if other means of analyzing the situation provide cause for greater optimism. Phillies pitchers — especially starters — are giving up home runs by the bucket. (Analytical aside: the Phils’ three most successful starters — Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Jake Arrieta — have also outperformed their FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers.) Closer Hector Neris is suddenly on the ropes. What appeared at the outset to be a loaded lineup is now without one of its best pieces (Andrew McCutchen) and carries a distinctively middle-of-the-road .243/.322/.420 collective output.
This is a club that entered the season with huge expectations after promising its fans significant spending and going on to secure the services of McCutchen, Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura, and David Robertson. It’s not as if it’s totally out of the picture. Still, it doesn’t feel like a time for anything close to an all-in push.
And yet … here we are, reading about the Phillies’ broad canvassing of the starting pitching market. The club is reportedly looking into just about every starting pitcher named on MLBTR’s list of the top sixty free agents — including pure rental players, highly paid veterans, and younger/more controllable hurlers. From public reports, anyway, it seems to be the sort of open-ended approach that would seem better suited to a club in a clearer position to contend.
But it may be that we shouldn’t read too much into the laundry list of starting pitching targets. It would behoove the club to have a good sense of the price of all the arms, after all. And at some point, it’d be worth going ahead with a move even for a pending free agent if the acquisition cost is low enough. There’s no particular reason to believe the team would act in an overly rash manner, even if it has an obvious interest in seeing through its significant offseason investments. President Andy MacPhail and GM Matt Klentak have plenty of contractual security, so their incentives should be fully in line with those of the organization itself.
Notably, the club’s leadership hasn’t been shy about acknowledging the predicament. MacPhail seems quite realistic about the situation. It’s no question whether the team is “one trade away from the World Series,” he said: “We don’t believe that. I don’t believe that.” Well then. That doesn’t mean that the club won’t pursue additions, but the declining postseason odds will clearly influence the nature of the pursuit. MacPhail suggested the Phils would “be more judicious with [their] playing talent,” while noting that such hesitancy to give up high-end prospects “doesn’t mean you can’t make a deal where a component is taking on somebody’s salary.”
So, where do and where should the Phillies stand when the deadline hits? That’ll obviously depend upon the final run of play, but presuming the situation remains roughly the same, there’s little doubt that a true all-in deadline approach would be unwise. The odds of a division title are minuscule; chances at a Wild Card are rather low. That said, there’s unquestionably value in pursuing even a play-in opportunity. Drawing fans down the stretch, convincing season-ticket holders to re-up for 2020, maintaining roster morale, preparing for another offseason of player recruiting (free agents and extension targets), adding players who’ll feature on future rosters … there are causes aplenty even beyond that of boosting the odds of a postseason berth itself. And even a Wild Card comes with an approximately 50/50 shot at earning a full series … and who knows from there?
What’s most interesting here is the fact that the Phillies are obviously especially willing to throw their financial heft into acquisition efforts. That may not be possible for quite a few other teams — even traditional big spenders have their limits and are facing luxury tax concerns — and opens up many creative possibilities. Perhaps a rental target or controllable starter could be packaged with a more expensive (albeit potentially still useful) player to reduce the prospect burden. Or the Philadelphia org can simply focus in on the higher-priced segment of the market as things shake out under the pressure of the impending deadline. Plus, while the Phils are seemingly clinging to prospects … who isn’t? There’s plenty of reason to think they can compete with cash — and, more importantly, that it could make bottom-line sense from both a financial and baseball sense to do so. If they fall short in their pursuit of new arms, the Philadelphia front office can sleep easy knowing that it did its best … and, quite possibly, forced the club’s long-term rivals to pony up additional young talent to shut down the 2019 Phils.
Drew Smyly Elects Free Agency
5:29pm: The Phillies have interest in Smyly, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).
1:10pm: Veteran left-hander Drew Smyly has opted out of his minor league contract with the Brewers, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (on Twitter). Smyly had signed a minor league pact with Milwaukee back on July 1 after being cut loose from the Rangers.
Smyly made three starts with Milwaukee’s top affiliate in San Antonio, where he allowed seven runs on 10 hits (two homers) and three walks with 18 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings of work. It’s a small but slightly more encouraging showing than he had with Texas earlier in the year. Smyly, pitching in the big leagues for the first time since 2017 Tommy John surgery, was tattooed for an 8.42 ERA in 51 1/3 innings as a Ranger. While he averaged better than a strikeout per inning there, Smyly also walked 34 batters (6.0 BB/9) and served up a staggering 19 home runs (3.33 HR/9).
Prior to undergoing surgery, Smyly displayed a knack for missing bats and strong control skills, but home runs have long been an issue for him. He’s always been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the league-wide uptick in home runs hasn’t done him any favors in 2019. Smyly’s average fastball velocity is back to its career norm, and he’s avoided any trips to the injured list thus far, so it seems as though he’s back to full strength following that surgery. He’ll head back to the open market in search of a new opportunity with a club that has its eyes on some affordable rotation depth; any team that signs Smyly would only owe him the prorated league minimum for any time spent in the Majors.
Phillies Continue To Have Interest In Mike Minor
The Phillies were one of several teams linked to Rangers left-hander Mike Minor during offseason trade talks, and with the deadline approaching, “the Phillies continue to maintain interest in” Minor’s services, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Corey Seidman writes.
Needless to say, Minor has only elevated his stock in the eyes of any interested parties in the wake of his strong 2019 season. Minor ranked 31st on MLBTR’s recent list of the top 60 trade deadline candidates, though the southpaw would rocket up the standings if the Rangers were to give a clearer indication that they were shopping Minor rather than retaining him for their own (perhaps fading) postseason push.
A four-game losing streak has dropped Texas to 9.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West and five games out of a wild card berth. The Rangers are still a solid 50-46 overall and they begin a three-game series against Houston on Friday. Plus, the Rangers also play the last-place Mariners four times before the July 31st trade deadline, so there’s even more of an opportunity to make up ground.
Rangers GM Jon Daniels has reportedly remained open to the idea of dealing Minor even with Texas on the outskirts of the race, since Minor represents such a major trade chip for a team that, realistically, is still closer to a roster reload (if not an outright rebuild) than they are to being legitimate contenders. Minor is under contract through the 2020 season and owed roughly $13.46MM between now and the end of his deal — between that extra year of control, the very reasonable salary, and Minor’s impressive performance, he should net a substantial haul in a trade.
With this in mind, the Phils would have to further deplete a minor league system that was already thinned out by some big offseason trades. Speculatively, Seidman writes that the Phillies might have to give up something like right-hander Spencer Howard, a young outfield piece (like Adam Haseley or former first overall pick Mickey Moniak), and probably a third prospect as well (if one of a lesser caliber) for Minor. Philadelphia has already received trade interest in Howard, its second-round pick from the 2017 draft who has thus far posted big strikeout numbers in his young career, though Seidman notes that the Phillies “have been uninterested in moving” Howard in response to these prior offers.
The Phillies are known to be looking at adding both starting and relief pitching at the deadline, with such names as Robbie Ray and Mychal Givens connected to the team in recent reports. Like Minor, these pitchers are all controlled beyond the 2019 season, which makes sense given the recent insinuation from team president Andy MacPhail that the Phillies weren’t likely to give up their top prospects for rental players.
Phillies Notes: Cashner, Farm System, Bruce
The latest from the City Of Brotherly Love…
- Before Andrew Cashner was dealt to the Red Sox, the veteran righty also drew some trade interest from the Phillies, but they ultimately “backed off in part due to concerns about the pitcher’s makeup,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required). While personality is always a factor when adding a player to the roster, it could be that the Phils are putting a particular focus on such matters this season given that, as per Rosenthal, “several of the Phillies’ acquisitions last season did not mix well in their clubhouse.”
- The Phillies’ multi-year rebuilding plan hoped to follow the model established by the Cubs and Astros earlier this decade, but as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) notes, Philadelphia’s efforts have been hampered by a lack of consistent reinforcements from the minor leagues. Aside from Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola, several of the Phils’ more highly-touted prospects or draft picks in recent years have either not produced much in the big leagues, or have yet to even arrive. (Perhaps most troublingly, first-rounders Mickey Moniak and Cornelius Randolph have both seen their prospect stock drop, as both are posting unspectacular numbers at Double-A.) Olney discussed the Phillies’ farm system with ESPN colleague Keith Law, who felt the problem could stem from a conservative approach to drafting pitching, as well the team’s “tendency to push [position] players to low-A Lakewood before they’re physically ready for it.“
- Jay Bruce is hopeful that his injured list stint could just last between 10-15 days, as the veteran outfielder told MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki and other reporters that his side injury was only a sprained right intercostal muscle. “It’s not nearly as bad as an oblique could be, so that’s a positive….I think it’s more on the mild side, the shorter side of the timetable, fortunately,” Bruce said. That would be a good scenario for both Bruce and the Phillies, who were already facing a lack of outfield depth prior to Bruce’s injury. The veteran has been something of a one-dimensional bat since joining the Phillies earlier this season, as Bruce has hit .256/.273/.564 with 10 homers over his 121 plate appearances in a Philadelphia uniform.
Phillies Select Fernando Salas
The Phillies announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of veteran right-hander Fernando Salas for the second time this season. Philadelphia also recalled southpaw Cole Irvin from Triple-A Lehigh Valley and, in a pair of corresponding moves, optioned lefty Austin Davis and righty Edgar Garcia to Triple-A. The Phillies had a 40-man vacancy, so no DFA or 60-day IL placement was required to add Salas to the 40-man roster.
Salas, 34, pitched just one inning in his previous stint with the Phils, allowing a solo homer and recording a strikeout. He was designated for assignment shortly thereafter and accepted an outright assignment upon clearing waivers. Since returning to the IronPigs, Salas has surrendered two runs on five hits and no walks with eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings. Overall, he has a 2.51 ERA and a 14-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings of work in Triple-A this year.
Of course, Salas is also a seasoned big league veteran, having spent nine seasons in the Majors prior to 2019. He tossed 40 innings with the D-backs last year and carries a lifetime 3.91 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 488 innings between the Cardinals, Angels, Mets, Diamondbacks and Phillies. He’ll add a fresh arm to an injury-ravaged Philadelphia bullpen that went through five relievers yesterday after starter Nick Pivetta lasted just 2 1/3 innings due to a lengthy rain delay.
Hector Neris, Noe Ramirez Receive 3-Game Suspensions
5:03pm: Angels righty Noe Ramirez has also been suspended for a trio of contests after also being deemed to have thrown at the head of a hitter. In his case, he went after Jake Marisnick in apparent retribution for the outfielder’s own recent actions, which resulted in an injury to Halos catcher Jonathan Lucroy and a two-game ban for Marisnick.
Halos skipper Brad Ausmus also took a one-game ban, which he’ll serve tonight. Ramirez will appeal the suspension, he tells reporters including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).
4:44pm: Major League Baseball has announced a three-game suspension for Phillies righty Hector Neris. He was deemed to have thrown intentionally at Dodgers infielder David Freese.
Here’s video of the incident. MLB cited the fact that the pitch was thrown “in the area of the head” of the hitter in explaining its decision.
Neris, the Phils’ closer, will appeal the suspension, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). If he loses or abandons the appeal, the punishment will take him out of the ninth inning for a brief stretch. Some might say that poor performance had already threatened such a move.
It was a brutal showing for Neris last night, as he coughed up three-run bomb to blow his fourth save. All of those have come since June 14th, with three coming since June 27th alone. Neris had a 1.88 ERA in mid-June; that has ballooned to 4.08. He evidently decided to take out his frustration on Freese, who strode to the plate after the ill-fated pitch.
Phillies Reportedly Extended Klentak, MacPhail Prior To Season
The Phillies never announced contractual lengths for president Andy MacPhail or general manager Matt Klentak upon hiring the pair to spearhead the organization’s baseball operations department, and Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports (subscription required) that the team was similarly quiet about a pair of previously unannounced extensions for that duo. According to Gelb, MacPhail signed a three-year extension back in 2017 that runs through the 2021 season, while Klentak was extended through the 2022 campaign four months ago.
The extension for Klentak came on the heels of an offseason in which he aggressively reshaped the Phillies’ lineup by signing Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen while acquiring several players via trade (headlined by J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura). The Philadelphia offense has improved in 2019, though probably not quite to the extent the front office had hoped. Phillies hitters have posted a combined .245/.323/.423 batting line and scored 460 runs — up from .236/.319/.390 and 411 runs scored at this same point in 2018.
Philadelphia’s defense has seemingly improved as well. After turning in a stunning -146 mark in Defensive Runs Saved and a -8.0 UZR/150 in 2018, the Phillies have logged a collective +3 DRS and +5.1 UZR/150 to this point in the 2019 campaign.
Unfortunately for the Phillies, the pitching staff has gone in the opposite direction. The offseason efforts put into bullpen acquisitions have been torpedoed by a near-unparalleled level of injury among the Phillies’ relief corps. David Robertson, for instance, has been baseball’s bullpen iron man over the past decade. However, since signing a two-year deal with the Phillies due in no small part to that durability, he’s been limited to 6 2/3 innings as a result of elbow troubles. High-priced bullpen pickups from the 2017-18 offseason like Tommy Hunter and Pat Neshek haven’t been able to stay healthy in 2019. Promising younger arms like Seranthony Dominguez (UCL injury), Victor Arano (arthroscopic elbow surgery) and Edubray Ramos (shoulder impingement) have also fallen victim to injury.
As one might expect of a team that has essentially lost an entire bullpen’s worth of solid MLB arms, Philadelphia relievers are tied for the game’s fifth-worst ERA (4.97). But the more alarming struggles have arguably come in a rotation that went largely unaddressed in the offseason. While the modest price the club paid to extend ace Aaron Nola still looks like a shrewd move, the 26-year-old hasn’t been as dominant in 2019 as he was in 2018. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, is pitching through a bone spur in his elbow with understandably mixed results. Zach Eflin has been solid but not spectacular. Beyond that trio, the Phillies have received a combined ERA well north of 5.00 from the group of Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and Jerad Eickhoff.
The end result is a Phillies club that has underachieved to the point of falling 8.5 games back of the division-leading Braves. Philadelphia is still three games over .500 and holds a half-game lead over Milwaukee for the second spot in the NL Wild Card race, so the season is far from lost. But the quietly extended front office regime will also have its hands full in endeavoring to address some of the flaws that have led to the current predicament. Gelb writes that, to this point, the Phillies “have not displayed an overwhelming sense of urgency” in their efforts to do so, although they’re hardly the only team that has not jumped into action; to this point in the “trading season,” there have only been three deals of even moderate note consummated (Andrew Cashner, Homer Bailey and Martin Maldonado).
The extent to which the Phillies ramp up that level of aggression could well be dependent on the current roster’s play in the next couple of weeks, but it still seems likely that the club will function as a buyer in the next 14 days.