Reactions To Inclusion Of Mark Appel In Ken Giles Trade
The Astros and Phillies made the Ken Giles trade official today, but a key component changed sometime between Wednesday and this morning. Outfield prospect Derek Fisher was originally slated to join the Phillies in the swap. He was pulled from the deal and replaced by former number one pick Mark Appel and pitcher Harold Arauz. The Astros also acquired 17-year-old middle infield prospect Jonathan Arauz (no relation).
Here are some reactions to the inclusion of Appel:
- Baseball America’s Vince Lara-Cinisomo provides a scouting report of Appel, grading his slider and changeup as his best pitches. Appel gets into trouble when he isn’t hitting spots with his offspeed pitches. His delivery and fastball offer little in the way of deception which can allow hitters to get into a groove. His fastball still runs up into the mid-90s, but it isn’t a plus pitch. Some scouts think he’ll stick in the rotation while others see him as a quality setup man. My opinion: Appel could benefit from adding a cut fastball, although that can be easier said than done.
- Two scouts figure the Astros gave up nearly as much as the Red Sox did for Craig Kimbrel, tweets Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle. One fan asked why the Astros didn’t acquire Kimbrel during the season if they were willing to trade so much for a reliever. Per Drellich (tweet), “I believe the way the ALDS progressed gave the Astros fresh perspective.“
- There were dozens of permutations of the trade, Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told Drellich (Twitter link). This is why the end result is different than earlier reports.
- Baseball America’s JJ Cooper thinks Appel and Fisher are comparable prospects (on Twitter). Drellich concurs (tweet), saying that Fisher is more likely to reach his ceiling. That seemingly implies that Appel is more likely to reach the majors if they are comparable assets. These are all sentiments with which I agree.
- The Astros were wise to deal Appel now, opines Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter). Appel would have faced increased scrutiny if he continued to post mediocre numbers in the Astros farm system. Meanwhile, Drellich and Cooper see Appel as a change of scenery candidate who could benefit from a fresh approach in Philadelphia.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Gio, Yelich, Cespedes, Freeman
Phillies GM Matt Klentak must see upside in bounceback starters like Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton, tweets ESPN’s Jayson Stark (1, 2). Both pitchers are a year from free agency. As Stark puts it, the club gave up replaceable parts for the chance to re-market them to contending clubs at the trade deadline. From my perspective both pitchers also give the Phillies the opportunity to compete in the weak NL East. Philadelphia took some momentum into the offseason with a solid second half. While a hypothetical rebound campaign would probably ultimately sputter like the Braves’ 2015 season, it doesn’t hurt to put some parts in position just in case. The Phillies also have several pitching prospects due to debut during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Hellickson and Morton can hold the door just long enough for the next guy.
Here’s more from the rest of the division:
- The Marlins inquired about Nationals starter Gio Gonzalez, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Talks promptly concluded when the Nationals asked for outfielder Christian Yelich in return. It’s possible the Marlins see Gonzalez as a match for Marcell Ozuna (my speculation), but it’s always hard to work out an in-division trade – especially when both teams aim to contend.
- Even though former Mets outfielder Michael Cuddyer is now off the books, the club isn’t likely to jump on top outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The $12.5MM saved from Cuddyer (assuming there was no buyout), will probably be used on quality bench depth. The team improved dramatically when they acquired Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe. Ensuring that similarly valuable players are available to fill cracks in the roster will better serve the Mets hunt for contention.
- It may be time for the Braves to trade Freddie Freeman, suggests Mike Petriello of MLB.com. The trades of Shelby Miller and Andrelton Simmons have focused the club’s talent in the minor leagues. Freeman could be used to acquire another impressive haul. The Braves are already gearing up for a lengthy rebuilding process, so they might as well get top dollar for Freeman before he begins to decline.
- Nationals infielder Danny Espinosa wants to start at shortstop next season, writes Todd Dybas of the Washington Times. After two consecutive bad seasons, Espinosa rebounded in 2015 with a 2.3 WAR campaign. Good defense in a utility role plus an improvement at the plate to roughly league average helped. He improved his plate discipline which looks like a sustainable fix. Even with the solid season, Espinosa will have to hold off top prospect Trea Turner. Acquired in the Steven Souza trade, Turner appears ready for a major league opportunity.
Astros To Acquire Ken Giles
SATURDAY 12:06pm: The Phillies have announced the trade. However, several components have changed. The Phillies will receive Velasquez, Oberholtzer, Eshelman, Mark Appel, and Harold Arauz. Derek Fisher, who was originally rumored to be headed to Philadelphia, is not part of the trade. The Astros will also receive infielder Jonathan Arauz from the Phillies. Although both are Panamanian prospects, the Arauz’s are not related.
Appel, the number one pick in the 2013 draft, has experienced mixed success in the minors. The 24-year-old reached Triple-A and posted a 4.48 ERA with 8.03 K/9 and 3.69 BB/9. MLB.com ranked Appel as the Astro’s second best prospect between 2015 draft picks Alex Bregman and Daz Cameron. He’s also ranked 43rd overall. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent in the minors, ranging from the low-90s to 98 mph. He also throws a slider and a changeup.
Harold Arauz, 20, pitched in Low-A last season with a 5.75 ERA, 9.06 K/9, and 3.14 BB/9 in 51 innings. Per Baseball America’s Ben Badler, Arauz leans heavily on a low-90s cutter. Badler also commented on Jonathan Arauz. The newly acquired Astro was ranked the 20th best prospect in the Gulf Coast League. The 17-year-old middle infielder was also considered the best Panamanian prospect in the 2014 international market.
In a related move, the Phillies have designated reliever Dan Otero to make room for Velasquez and Oberholtzer on the 40-man roster, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.
THURSDAY 12:13am: The final player in the deal will be righty Thomas Eshelman, who will head from the Astros to the Phillies, the Houston Chronicle’s Evan Drellich tweets. The 21-year-old Eshelman, a second-round pick this past June out of Cal State Fullerton, pitched just 10 1/3 innings in the Astros organization. Before the draft, MLB.com characterized him as a polished pitcher who could move through the minors quickly but might end up as a back-of-the-rotation type of starter. At the time of the trade, he ranked as the Astros’ 13th-best prospect.
WEDNESDAY 7:52pm: MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweets that a fourth player is headed to the Phillies in the deal as well.
7:38pm: The Astros and Phillies are in agreement on a trade that will send right-hander Vincent Velasquez, lefty Brett Oberholtzer and another prospect to Philadelphia in exchange for young closer Ken Giles, reports Mark Berman of FOX 26 Houston (Twitter link). Outfielder Derek Fisher will also head to Philadelphia in the deal, Berman clarifies (on Twitter). The trade is pending medical reviews. CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury first broke news that the two sides were nearing an agreement, and he added details along with ESPN’s Jayson Stark as they emerged.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’ll satisfy Houston GM Jeff Luhnow’s previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen had been missing.
By adding Giles, the Astros will deepen their bullpen considerably. Luke Gregerson, who performed well as the club’s primary closer in 2015, will return to the setup capacity in which he thrived for much of his career. He’ll be joined there by side-arming Pat Neshek, the quietly excellent Will Harris and Josh Fields in 2016. Houston will still need to address its dearth of left-handed relief options, however, as its two primary southpaws — Tony Sipp and Oliver Perez — both departed as free agents. Perez has since signed with the Nationals, though a reunion with Sipp remains a possibility, as he’s still a free agent and there has reportedly been mutual interest between the parties.
Houston will control Giles through at least the 2020 season if all goes well. With one year, 113 days of Major League service time, Giles will fall shy of Super Two designation and thus will not be arbitration eligible until the 2017-18 offseason. He’ll earn scarcely more than the league minimum in each of the next two seasons (barring an extension), providing Houston with financial flexibility to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
The centerpiece of the deal for the Astros is Velasquez — a 23-year-old righty who entered the 2015 season as a consensus Top 100 prospect and made his big league debut after performing exceptionally well at the Double-A level. Velasquez logged a 1.91 with a 45-to-13 K/BB ratio in 33 innings at Double-A in addition to posting a 4.37 ERA in 55 2/3 innings at the Major League level where he struck out 58 and walked 21. He’ll immediately be in the mix for a rotation spot with the Phillies, though it’s possible that Philadelphia may want to get Velasquez some time at Triple-A, where he has yet to throw so much as a single inning.
While Velasquez may need some additional development before slotting into the Phillies’ rotation on a full-time basis, Oberholtzer should be able to step into the starting five from day one. The 26-year-old has been up and down with the Astros over the past three seasons but has totaled 45 appearances (42 starts) and recorded a solid, if unspectacular 3.94 ERA with 5.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 and a 38.5 percent ground-ball rate. That ground-ball rate, though, isn’t fully representative of Oberholtzer’s new skill set, as he began using a cutter in 2015 that upped his rate to 48.8 percent in his sample of 34 2/3 big league innings. He’ll give the Phillies an option at the back of their rotation that can be controlled for up to five years — the same as Giles — if he’s able to consistently perform in the Majors.
Fisher, meanwhile, was the 37th overall pick in the 2014 Draft and rated as the No. 8 prospect in a deep Houston farm system, per MLB.com. The Virginia product, whom Baseball America ranked 13th among Houston farmhands entering the season, is said in their scouting report to be a toolsy outfielder with plus-plus raw power that has yet to fully manifest. He draws praise for his bat speed and above-average running, though BA noted that he has a below-average arm and has questionable route-running, so left field is probably his ultimate home.
Still just 21 years old, Fisher split the season between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, hitting .275/.364/.483 with 22 homers and 31 stolen bases before going on to bat .254/.397/.424 in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s at least a full season away from the Majors and possibly two, but Fisher gives the Phillies a potential everyday outfielder down the line if he can keep hitting the way he did in 2015. MLB.com calls him a potential “impact hitter,” even if he isn’t believed to have a future as a strong defender.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Phillies Acquire Charlie Morton From Pirates
11:35am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan brings to light an “interesting wrinkle” in Morton’s contract (tweet). The trade triggered a clause that converts his $9.5MM 2017 team option into a mutual option. As Passan notes, Morton is now very likely to hit the free agent market after the season.
9:39am: The Phillies have acquired right-handed starting pitcher Charlie Morton from the Pirates, reports FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal on Twitter. The Pirates will pick up right-handed pitcher David Whitehead in the swap. The Phillies will pick up the tab for Morton. He is signed for $8MM in 2016 with a $9.5MM club option for 2017 ($1MM buyout). In a related move, the Phillies designated pitcher A.J. Achter to make room on the 40-man roster, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (tweet).
Morton, 32, is a veteran of eight major league seasons. He has a career 4.54 ERA with 6.28 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, and a 55 percent ground ball rate. Phillies fans will find his delivery uncannily familiar – Morton almost perfectly mimics the throwing motion of former Phillies star Roy Halladay.
The ground ball specialist has struggled with health in recent seasons, but he’s been modestly effective when on the field. Although he posted a 4.81 ERA in 129 innings last season, ERA estimators like xFIP (3.87) and SIERA (3.89) were more positive. While Morton had a rocky start to his early career, he’s actually projected to contribute a sub-4.00 ERA in 2016.
Morton joins a suddenly deep Phillies rotation that includes Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Jeremy Hellickson, Vincent Velasquez, Brett Oberholtzer, and Matt Harrison. It’s unclear what, if any, role Harrison can fill. Even if Harrison spends the season on the disabled list, the club seems prepared to avoid forcing an unready pitcher like David Buchanan or Alec Asher from making regular starts.
In Whitehead, the Pirates acquired a former 34th round pick from the 2013 draft. Last season at High-A, Whitehead pitched to a 4.44 ERA with 6.24 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9 in 25 starts. Scouting reports describe him as a ground ball pitcher with a low-90’s sinker. He may have a back-of-the-rotation ceiling.
For Pittsburgh, this deal was mostly about escaping the $9MM guaranteed to Morton over the next two seasons. After dealing Neil Walker last week, the club has the necessary resources to pursue a starting pitcher in free agency. The Pirates are often tied to inexpensive reclamation projects like Justin Masterson or Mat Latos.
The swap necessitated the Phillies to make a 40-man roster move. Achter drew the short straw. The right-handed reliever was acquired off waivers from the Twins earlier in the offseason. The 27-year-old has a 90 mph fastball. He’s posted strong numbers are Triple-A but has yet to succeed at the major league level.
Phillies To Sign Ernesto Frieri To Minors Deal
The Phillies have agreed to sign free agent righty Ernesto Frieri to a minor league pact, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. He can earn a $850K salary if he makes the MLB roster.
Frieri, 30, threw 23 1/3 frames for the Rays last year as he looked to bounce back from an awful 2014 campaign. The results weren’t quite as bad, but he still managed only a 4.63 ERA with 7.3 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 and looked nothing like the quality reliever he used to be with the Padres and Angels.
That strikeout rate, in particular, is a far cry from the double-digit K/9 numbers that Frieri ran up repeatedly in prior campaigns. His swinging strike numbers have unsurprisingly also plummeted, landing in the single digits for the first time ever last year. A drop-off in velocity may have played a role, as Frieri worked in the 91 to 92 mph after sitting at or over 94 mph in recent years.
Law On Walker, Giles, Lind Trades
Here are a few of Keith Law of ESPN’s takes on some of Wednesday’s key transactions. Law’s articles are Insider-only and contain significantly more detail that we’ll present here. We highly recommend subscribing.
- The trade for Neil Walker was a good one for the Mets, although Law is puzzled by the team’s addition of Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera’s deal would make sense if he were a second baseman, but with Walker in the fold, Cabrera will play shortstop, a position he can no longer play well. The Walker trade reflects the Mets’ skepticism that Dilson Herrera can take over second base next season, but Walker is a consistently solid player, and the Mets only gave up Jon Niese, who didn’t figure to play an important role for them going forward. Niese will allow the Pirates to move top prospect Tyler Glasnow along slowly, although Law notes that Niese’s lack of strikeout ability makes him a back-end starter and writes that Niese will have to improve next season to justify the Bucs picking up the first of his two options.
- In Ken Giles, the Astros got a strikeout reliever who will be a good addition to a bullpen that did register enough Ks in 2015, Law writes. They’ll also get five years of control, making Giles a valuable asset. The Phillies, however, did get plenty in return, including Vincent Velasquez, who Law thinks can stick as a starter, and Brett Oberholtzer, a back-of-the-rotation lefty who can soak up innings as the Phillies continue their rebuild.
- Adam Lind isn’t much of a defensive first baseman, Law writes, but for the Mariners, he’s still an upgrade over the recently traded Mark Trumbo. Platooning the left-handed Lind with the right-handed Jesus Montero would be a good plan, Law suggests. The Brewers, meanwhile, got three young pitchers who are possible future relievers. None of them are outstanding talents, but Milwaukee did well to get something in return for a player they didn’t really need in 2016.
Phillies Likely To Select Tyler Goeddel First In Rule 5 Draft
The Phillies are likely to take Rays outfielder Tyler Goeddel with the first pick in Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis writes, citing his colleague Todd Zolecki. The Rule 5 takes place at 9:00 Central on Thursday.
Callis names Mariners outfielder Jabari Blash, Astros lefty Raymin Guduan, Twins righty Zack Jones, Astros catcher Roberto Pena, Cardinals righty Luis Perdomo and Diamondbacks righty Nick Sarianides as potential selections. Compared to the June draft, however, there’s generally far less consensus about potential Rule 5 picks, due to the restrictions on which players can be selected. (Here’s a primer on how the Rule 5 Draft works.)
Goeddel is the brother of Mets reliever Erik Goeddel. Callis notes that the younger Goeddel has good raw power and speed, and a strong arm that could play in right field. The 23-year-old hit .279/.350/.433 in 533 plate appearances for Double-A Montgomery in 2015, hitting 12 home runs while swiping 28 bases.
If Goeddel is indeed the Phillies’ pick, he could join their top selection last year, Odubel Herrera, in the Philadelphia outfield. Other key picks from that draft included Delino DeShields, Mark Canha, Sean Gilmartin and J.R. Graham.
Phillies Sign David Hernandez
7:25pm: Hernandez will earn $3.9MM on his one-year deal with the Phillies, which contains incentives based on games finished, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (Twitter link).
7:25am: The Phillies have announced the signing of righty reliever David Hernandez, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first tweeted. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo connected Hernandez to the Phillies in a tweet last night. Hernandez is represented by Jason Hoffman.
Hernandez, 30, was once a key part of the Diamondbacks bullpen (even briefly serving as their closer in 2011). He posted a 4.28 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 33 2/3 innings in Arizona last season after having missed all of 2014 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was little worse for wear upon returning, throwing in the mid-90s (although his strikeout rate was down slightly from prior seasons, and he allowed six home runs). Hernandez was drafted by the Orioles in 2005 and was in their system when current Phillies president Andy MacPhail became the Orioles’ president of baseball operations.
Astros Close To Acquiring Ken Giles
6:19pm: A source tells Salisbury that a trade sending Giles to Houston is “close” but not done yet (Twitter link).
5:15pm: Major League lefty Brett Oberholtzer, whom the Astros have reportedly been shopping, is also being discussed in talks, tweets Salisbury.
4:16pm: Stark reports that talks currently center around well-regarded right-hander Vincent Velasquez and two other prospects (Twitter link).
2:57pm: Salisbury tweets that the Phillies have pushed back their media session for the day, which could be in relation to talks centering around Giles. ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that Lance McCullers won’t be included in a deal for Giles, as the Astros are set on keeping him.
2:28pm: Trade talks between the Astros and Phillies centering around brilliant young closer Ken Giles are “heating up,” reports CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link). Houston has long been linked to top-flight relief arms, and Giles would not only give the club a dominant arm to slot into the ninth inning but also a controllable option for that role, as he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2020 season.
Giles, who turned 25 in late September, took over as closer in Philadelphia following the trade of Jonathan Papelbon and continued to display the dominance he’s exhibited since breaking into the Majors upon being moved to a more prominent role. In 115 2/3 career innings, the former seventh-round pick has a masterful 1.56 ERA with 11.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 44.6 percent ground-ball rate. Giles’ fastball has averaged just a shade under 97 mph in the Majors (96.8), so he’d satisfy Houston GM previously stated interest in adding a hard-throwing arm that the back end of the Astros’ bullpen presently lacks.
The asking price on Giles, one would imagine, is exceptionally high. The Red Sox paid the substantial price of Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje and Logan Allen for three years of Craig Kimbrel. While Giles doesn’t have Kimbrel’s lengthy track record of dominance in the Majors, he’s delivered comparable results and comes with two more years of control than did Kimbrel, two of which figure to be near the league-minimum in terms of salary. Giles should narrowly fall shy of Super Two status (he currently has one year, 113 days of Major League service time) and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2017 season.
West Notes: Giants, Gordon, Giles, Santiago, Wilson, Rangers, DBacks, Padres
The Giants are seen as the frontrunner for outfielder Alex Gordon by some “rival evaluators,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. One other possible target for GM Bobby Evans and co. is Dexter Fowler, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Of course, we’ve also heard San Francisco connected to some of the other top free agent outfielders available, so there still seems to be plenty of uncertainty and opportunity for the organization in that area.
More from out west:
- The Astros are “still trying to pry” young closer Ken Giles away from the Phillies, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. He’d cost some significant prospects if a deal is struck, Heyman suggests.
- The Angels are receiving the most hits on lefty Hector Santiago, MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reports on Twitter. He certainly represents an interesting chip after putting up 180 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA pitching last year. The Orioles are among “many” clubs that have inquired on Santiago, Heyman tweets.
- Teams are not showing much of an appetite for C.J. Wilson, Gonzalez adds. Los Angeles would need to hold onto about $15MM of Wilson’s $20MM salary to get something done, which wouldn’t offer enough salary relief to make sense.
- The Rangers and Diamondbacks have been talking about a possible deal, T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Arizona “may have extra pitching,” suggests Sullivan, in light of its two major recent rotation upgrades. Meanwhile, Heyman says on Twitter that the D’backs might be hunting for relievers, which could be a target area with Texas.
- It does not appear as if the Padres intend to utilize Jon Jay in left field, writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, meaning the team will be looking for another option there. GM A.J. Preller discussed the possibility of Hunter Renfroe stepping in there, but it seems as if he won’t be an option until the middle of the season at the earliest. That could leave the organization searching for an outside addition.