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Blake Snell

Cardinals Have Not Recently Inquired On Snell, Montgomery

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With top left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still unsigned into March, agent Scott Boras declared today that four new teams had checked in regarding those pitchers since the opening of spring camps. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals are among that group. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, as of this afternoon, the Cards had not recently reached out to Boras about Snell or Montgomery.

That’s not a surprise, particularly as it pertains to Snell. St. Louis hasn’t been substantively tied to the defending NL Cy Young winner at any point. They’d left the door ajar to bringing Montgomery back at the time they traded him to the Rangers, but that possibility seemed more or less closed with the front office’s activity early in the offseason. The Cardinals added Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75MM pact as their big rotation pickup. They brought in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as hopefully stable sources of innings at the back end.

Gray’s tenure in Cardinal red has started somewhat shakily. The three-time All-Star was removed from his Spring Training appearance today with right hamstring tightness. Gray declined comment pending the results of an MRI; the team is expected to provide more information tomorrow.

While Gray’s status could theoretically spur the Cardinals to seek out additional pitching depth, that won’t be known until the team gets clarity as to whether he’s still on track to be ready for Opening Day. Even if he does need to spend time on the IL, a push for Montgomery or Snell would be a surprise.

St. Louis has roughly $185MM on the books for the upcoming season, according to RosterResource. That’ll be a franchise high for Opening Day, approximately $8MM above last year’s team-record figure. Their competitive balance tax number is around $215MM. Signing either pitcher, especially Snell, would push them near or beyond the $237MM luxury tax threshold. The cost for narrowly exceeding the threshold for the first time isn’t all that significant — a 20% hit on spending between $237MM and $257MM — but Goold notes that team officials have suggested they have no desire to push into tax territory.

If Gray remains on track for Opening Day, he’ll front a rotation also including Gibson, Lynn, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Should anyone from that group miss time, young southpaws Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson are probably next on the depth chart. Drew Rom made his MLB debut late last year but was tagged for an 8.02 ERA over eight starts. Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are also on the 40-man roster and have yet to reach the big leagues.

That’s a questionable group of depth starters for a team expecting to compete in the NL Central. Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen headline the crop of unsigned starters beyond Snell and Montgomery. If the asking price for that duo is beyond the Cardinals’ liking, players like Zack Greinke, Eric Lauer and Noah Syndergaard wouldn’t command more than a few million dollars if they’re able to find a major league offer of any kind.

Phillies Reportedly Have Not “Seriously Discussed” Blake Snell

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The Phillies hammered out their second recent nine-figure pitching investment this morning. Philadelphia’s three-year, $126MM extension with Zack Wheeler follows their $172MM guarantee over seven seasons to retain Aaron Nola in free agency. There’s been chatter about the possibility of adding the defending NL Cy Young winner to form an elite trio, but that has always seemed like a stretch — even for a franchise that spends as aggressively on star talent as the Phillies do.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Phils had interest in Snell if he takes a short-term contract. However, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported differently this afternoon. According to Gelb, the Phillies have not “seriously discussed” a pursuit of Snell, regardless of the contract length required.

Snell declined a qualifying offer from the Padres at the beginning of the offseason. Gelb suggests the Phils weren’t interested in signing a player who rejected a QO, which would require them to forfeit their second and fifth picks in the 2024 draft and $1MM in bonus pool space for international amateurs. Philadelphia did relinquish their right to a compensatory pick by re-signing Nola, though that would have been only one draft choice that fell after the fourth round. (Snell is the only of the seven players who declined the QO who remains unsigned.)

Even independent of the draft compensation, the Phillies haven’t seemed a great fit for Snell since they retained Nola. Philadelphia has $246MM in player commitments for the upcoming season, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s a little north of last year’s $243MM franchise-record Opening Day mark. The Phils have nearly $262MM in competitive balance tax commitments. They’re going to exceed the CBT for a third consecutive season, leading to higher penalties as a three-time payor.

Philadelphia is already set to pay roughly $13MM in luxury taxes. Further additions either during the offseason or around the deadline will add to that mark. The Phils would pay a 62% tax on their approximate next $15MM in spending. That’d be followed by a 95% charge on the following $20MM and a 110% tax on any money thereafter.

A short-term contract for Snell would assuredly come with a lofty average salary, heightening the CBT commitments. A $35MM annual value, as a hypothetical, would add around $28MM to Philadelphia’s tax bill on top of the money going to Snell. It would also vault the Phils past the $277MM line that marks the third tier of CBT penalization, pushing their top pick in the 2025 draft back 10 spots in the process. A longer-term commitment could soften the CBT hit but would add another extended pitching investment to the Nola, Wheeler and Taijuan Walker contracts — which all run through 2026 or later.

Every team would benefit from installing Snell into their rotation in the short term. The Phillies have a strong starting five already, though. Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is a good group. Philadelphia took a flier on Spencer Turnbull as a long man/sixth starter and added Kolby Allard and Max Castillo as further rotation depth. Prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are higher ceiling options who could make their respective big league debuts in 2024. Andrew Painter is likely to miss all of this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, yet he should be a factor in the ’25 starting staff.

Boras: New Teams Have Reached Out On Snell, Montgomery Since Spring Training Began

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Both Blake Snell (Giants, Yankees) and Jordan Montgomery (Red Sox) have had their teams to which they’ve been frequently connected throughout the offseason, but the opening of spring training has brought about some new suitors — at least… according to their agent. Scott Boras tells USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that four clubs who hadn’t been active suitors for Snell and Montgomery have checked in on the pair of lefties since camps opened in mid-February (X link).

On the one hand, it’s a wholly unsurprising comment. Both pitchers remain unsigned with seemingly limited markets — at least, insofar as who could offer them the of long-term deal or (in Snell’s case), short-term, opt-out laden, high-AAV deal they’re reported to be seeking. As such, it’s only natural their representative would work to dispel the notion that there are few viable landing spots.

On the other, there’s also surely at least some truth to the statement. Spring training annually brings about pitcher injuries of note. Already, we’ve seen Orioles starter Kyle Bradish diagnosed with a UCL sprain that will impact his availability for the regular season and could portend a long-term absence, depending how he progresses after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. Mets righty Kodai Senga has been diagnosed with a capsule strain in his shoulder and is expected to open the year on the injured list. The Astros announced some early shoulder concern for Justin Verlander and J.P. France, though both righties have progressed well since. The Giants will be without fifth starter Tristan Beck for quite some time as he undergoes surgery to treat an aneurysm in his shoulder.

The shifting of contract goals for the pair of lefties is sure to bring about new interest as well. Several reports over the past week have indicated that Snell is increasingly amenable to a short-term deal with a high annual value and multiple opt-out opportunities. Fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman signed similar deals. Montgomery, by most accounts, is still looking for a long-term arrangement, but it’s only natural for teams to check the extent to which (if any) his ask on a long-term pact might have fallen. It also bears mentioning, of course, that a team reaching out to inquire on where things stand with a player’s market is far from the same as expressing legitimate interest in meeting what’s sure to be an enormous asking price on either left-hander.

The further the potential length of a contract drops, the more additional suitors could join the fray. The Twins’ original signing of Carlos Correa, for example, only came about after it became clear he’d be open to a three-year deal with multiple opt-outs. Reports all offseason suggested the Cubs were reluctant to go too long-term on Bellinger, but he wound up back at Wrigley Field once he pivoted to the short-term route. Any lower-payroll club with a win-now mindset and ample payroll space in the short-term could perhaps convince itself to stretch beyond comfort levels in 2024 if it means signing a player who’d be wholly out of their price range under more conventional market conditions.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample reason to take Boras’ comments with a hefty grain of salt — but it’s also surely true that circumstances surrounding the rotation mix of several clubs have changed. Whether that leads to any new offers remains to be seen. Even with Bradish ailing, for instance, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that he’d be “floored” if the Orioles pursued a short-term opt-out-laden deal with Montgomery and adds that any high-profile free agent addition remains very unlikely in Baltimore.

Phillies Interested In Blake Snell On Short-Term Contract

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The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola early in the offseason, made a big push to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a chance still remains that they could make one more splash in the free agent pitching market.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Philadelphia would be open to bringing Blake Snell into the fold, but not on a long-term deal.  A one-year pact or a shorter-term contract would be the Phils’ preference, or quite possibly the kind of three-year deal with multiple opt-outs recently signed by other Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.

The news isn’t surprising in the sense that plenty of teams would similarly love to have Snell on these terms, though the Phillies’ interest in Snell was described by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark back in November as “lukewarm.”  In Stark’s view, the Phils saw Snell as a fallback plan if they couldn’t add their higher-priority targets (i.e. Nola or Yamamoto).  There is also the fact that the Phillies already have a set rotation on paper, with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez combining to form a very solid starting five.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken multiple times this offseason about how much he likes his rotation options, and about how the Phils’ other forays into the starting pitching market were focused on depth additions.  That said, Dombrowski also noted last month that “I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down.’ ”  It seems possible that Snell’s seemingly limited market might now represent such a possibility for the Phillies to get involved.

Snell’s reported willingness to consider shorter-term offers could mean that a five- or six-year contract simply might not be on the table at this late date in the offseason.  Even back in mid-February, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wondered if Snell would be better off aiming for a very high average annual value within a short-term deal, so the left-hander could then potentially opt out next winter when the market is more favorable and more teams might be willing to spend.  The Yankees, Giants, and Angels have all been linked to Snell’s market, and that list probably widens considerably should the reigning NL Cy Young winner start focusing on just short-term contracts with opt-outs attached.

Philadelphia is undoubtedly in win-now mode, and both Dombrowski and team chairman John Middleton have a history of making aggressive moves in search of a World Series crown.  Signing Snell and moving to either some kind of six-man rotation or in making Sanchez something of an over-qualified swingman would improve what is already a good rotation, and no postseason opponent would want to face the trio of Snell, Wheeler, and Nola within a short series.

Even as a short-term signing, however, Snell has its drawbacks for the Phillies.  The club would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool funds and its second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer and because Philadelphia was a luxury-tax payor in 2023.  In fact, the Phils have crossed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in each of the last two years and are poised to make it a trifecta in 2024, with a projected CBT number of $261MM (as per RosterResource).

This figure is already over the second-highest penalty threshold of $257MM, and adding Snell would surely put Philadelphia over the third tier of $277MM.  Teams who cross that third tier face the further penalty of a ten-slot drop for their first selection in the following season’s draft, as well as even steeper financial costs.  As a three-time tax payor, the Phillies would be taxed at a 95% rate for every dollar spent above the $277MM mark.

For a one-year splurge on Snell, Middleton might deem the CBT costs as worth it if the left-hander is a final piece who can nab the Phillies that elusive championship.  But the risk is obvious, as if Snell struggles in 2024 or gets injured, suddenly what might’ve looked like a one-year deal with Snell opting out now looks more like a fuller commitment or two or three years, and a further strain on the Phillies’ books.  This might not be ideal for a team that has been prioritizing an extension with Wheeler, and most of the Phils’ most prominent players are signed through at least 2025.

Giants Still Interested In Blake Snell

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The Giants made another major addition yesterday with the signing of Matt Chapman, and might not yet be done with their March shopping.  Both Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area report that Blake Snell remains a target for the club, as the Giants continue to have a pressing need in the rotation.

Chapman’s deal contains two opt-out clauses, but in its full form is a three-year, $54MM guarantee.  That puts San Francisco’s payroll at just over $183MM (as per RosterResource’s projections) and, more importantly, its luxury tax figure at roughly $230.5MM — only slightly below the $237MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Even if Snell were to also accept a shorter-term contract laden with opt-outs, his salary would obviously send the Giants sailing over that first tax tier and closer to the secondary tier of $257MM.

The Giants haven’t exceeded the CBT line since 2017, yet given the team’s high-profile bids for star free agents (i.e. Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) in recent years, the tax threshold is hardly viewed as a barrier to spending.  If Snell and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are open to a shorter-term deal deal akin to Chapman’s, the idea that San Francisco could sign both players for perhaps something close to the total number projected for just one of the duo at the start of the offseason would count as a valuable bargain, and seemingly well worth what might be a temporary tax hit.  Michael Conforto’s contract is off the books after next season, Chapman could opt out, and Snell could opt out as well in this scenario.

Signing Snell would come at an additional cost to the Giants than just money, since both Snell and Chapman rejected qualifying offers.  Signing Chapman cost San Francisco its second-highest pick (the 51st overall selection) in the 2024 draft as well as $500K in international signing pool money, and signing Snell would cost the Giants another $500K from their pool, plus their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft.  While every draft pick is valued, giving up a second pick might again be seen as an acceptable loss for the Giants if it means landing Snell, either at a relative discount price or simply because the team is sorely in need of pitching help.

The rotation appeared to be a priority heading into the offseason, yet the Giants addressed the situation in a somewhat uncertain fashion by signing Jordan Hicks and acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners.  Hicks has worked primarily as a reliever over his Major League career, and Ray will be out until around midseason as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Since Alex Cobb will be sidelined until May at the earliest due to his own recovery from hip surgery, the Giants were seemingly prepared to roll with a rotation of ace Logan Webb, Hicks, and a group of rookies headlined by star prospect Kyle Harrison until Cobb and Ray were ready to return.

However, those plans took a hit with yesterday’s news that Tristan Beck will be undergoing surgery to correct an aneurysm in his upper right arm.  Keaton Winn looks to be on track for Opening Day after a bout of nerve-related elbow discomfort, but these injuries have only highlighted the unsteady nature of San Francisco’s pitching plans.  An argument can clearly be made that adding another starter would greatly help the situation, whether more of a stopgap veteran like Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger, or a front-of-the-rotation type like Jordan Montgomery or Snell.

Even though Snell won his second career Cy Young Award in 2023, questions have persisted about Snell’s viability as a long-term investment.  He has averaged just over 124 innings per season during his eight years in the big leagues, and he has pitched into the eighth inning in only five of his 191 career starts.  Snell has also been prone to giving up a lot of hard contact at times, and his walk rates have been decidedly below average for his entire career.

This doesn’t seem to be the profile that would match Farhan Zaidi’s preferred model for pitching contracts, as the Giants president of baseball operations has long been hesitant about signing pitchers to particularly lengthy commitments.  A shorter-term deal with opt-outs might solve that issue, and Snell is reportedly open to considering such offers, though it remains to be seen if there might still be enough late interest for the left-hander to score a more lucrative deal.  The Yankees and Angels have been linked to Snell’s market, and other suitors could potentially emerge if another injury situation develops during Spring Training.

Yankees Notes: Hernández, Snell, Schmidt

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Utility player Enrique Hernández signed with the Dodgers earlier this week after having reported interest from clubs such as the Giants, Angels, Twins, and Padres. Hernández spoke to Foul Territory about his free agency (video link via X), adding that the Tigers were also interested but that it came down to the Dodgers and Yankees at the end.

The interest from the Tigers was not previously reported, but it seems fair to assume it came before they signed another utility infielder, Gio Urshela. That the Yankees were at the table is not something that was previously reported and would seem to suggest they are open to adding another utility player to their roster.

There are a few different ways Hernández could have been useful off the bench for the Yankees. The club is set to have veterans DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo at the infield corners, both of whom are now in the mid-30s and struggled with injuries last year. He could have given them some extra cover at those spots while also perhaps getting into the outfield mix in a platoon capacity, pairing with lefty Alex Verdugo.

Hernández hits from the right side and has a career slash of .257/.343/.458 against southpaws, good enough for a 115 wRC+, compared to a line of .228/.290/.377 and 80 wRC+ against righties. Verdugo’s career splits are .290/.346/.461 and 115 wRC+ against righties but .259/.315/.350 and 80 wRC+ versus lefties. Left-hander Trent Grisham is also in the mix but he has reverse splits.

The Yankees project to have a bench of Jose Trevino, Oswaldo Cabrera and Grisham in three spots. That leaves one spot open, which could go to Oswald Peraza, but he has an option and is probably better served getting regular reps in the minors as opposed to sitting on the big league bench.

The club’s interest in Hernández suggests they could sign a veteran to plug into their bench, though there aren’t many proven infield/outfield types unsigned. Donovan Solano hasn’t played the outfield since 2012 while guys like Elvis Andrus or Jonathan Schoop never have. Free agent outfielders like Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall or Michael A. Taylor can’t help on the infield. The Yanks just claimed Jahmai Jones off waivers, who has experience on the dirt and the grass and is out of options, so perhaps they will just turn to him or some other claimee to fill out their bench.

Elsewhere in Yankee tidbits, the club continues to be tied to Blake Snell as the lefty lingers on the market. Recent reporting has suggested Snell may follow Cody Bellinger in pivoting to a short-term deal with opt-outs and high average annual values, though this wouldn’t work well for a club like the Yankees. They are already over the fourth and final tier of the competitive balance tax and face a 110% tax on any additional spending. RosterResource puts their CBT number at $307MM, already $10MM over the $297MM top line.

Hypothetically, if Snell wanted the same $30MM salary as Bellinger this year, the Yankees would also have to pay $33MM in taxes to give it to him. Snell also rejected a qualifying offer, so the Yankees would have to surrender their second- and fifth-highest picks in the upcoming draft and $1MM of international bonus pool space to sign him. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic looked at the situation today and reported that it remains unlikely the two sides will get something done for those exact reasons.

As long as the Yankees don’t sign Snell or any other pitcher, then Clarke Schmidt projects as the number five behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes. Kuty spoke to manager Aaron Boone about Schmidt, with the skipper highlighting the strong finish to his season. “He never lost confidence,” Boone said. “He never lost focus. Then he put together a really strong 4 1/2 or five months — after Gerrit, he was the guy we could kind of hang our hat on. Hopefully there’s another step in that.”

In his ninth start of the season, Schmidt allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Rays and had a 6.30 earned run average at that point. But he put up a 4.08 ERA the rest of the way, allowing him to finish at 4.64 for the season overall. The Yanks will be hoping the 28-year-old can take another step forward here in 2024, as they traded away much of their rotation depth in the deal that brought over Grisham and Juan Soto.

Giants Remain Involved On Snell, Chapman

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The Giants continue to explore the markets for Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as March draws near, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. One source tells Slusser there’s roughly a 50-50 chance that San Francisco comes away with one of those players.

Snell would address the bigger need, at least in the short term. San Francisco has a patchwork rotation behind Cy Young runner-up Logan Webb. The Giants signed longtime reliever Jordan Hicks to a four-year deal with the promise of a rotation job. Hicks’ personal high in innings at the MLB level is 77 2/3 from his 2018 rookie season. He hasn’t reached the 70-inning mark since then.

The options beyond Hicks are even less established. Kyle Harrison is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects, but he has seven MLB games under his belt. The southpaw averaged fewer than four innings per appearance over 20 Triple-A starts a year ago. That was partially to keep his workload in check but also reflected his inefficiency. Harrison struck out an excellent 35.6% of Triple-A opponents but walked upwards of 16% of batters faced.

Webb, Hicks and Harrison are the three locks for the Opening Day staff. Alex Cobb will begin the year on the injured list as he works back from hip surgery. Robbie Ray won’t be ready until around the All-Star Break at the earliest during his rehab from last year’s Tommy John procedure. Keaton Winn and Tristan Beck entered camp with the presumed edge on the fourth and fifth rotation spots. They’ve each been set back by injury during exhibition play. Winn was delayed by elbow soreness, although he maintained over the weekend he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Beck just left the team to undergo testing after experiencing discomfort in his right hand.

A starting five of Webb, Hicks, Harrison, Winn and Beck is already not ideal for a team that hopes to compete for a playoff spot. Losing either Winn or Beck would require dipping further into depth options like Sean Hjelle, Ethan Small, prospect Kai-Wei Teng or a non-roster invitee like Daulton Jefferies or Tommy Romero.

While Snell hasn’t been a consistent source of volume throughout his career, he’s coming off his second 180-inning season. He’d upgrade any rotation and would afford the Giants the luxury of plugging in the top two finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting. There’d still be some questions about the staff’s durability, but a top three of Webb, Snell and Harrison would have one of the highest ceilings in the league.

Of course, the question is whether they’ll line up on an agreeable price point. No team has yet met Snell’s ask. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote this afternoon that the southpaw may be open to considering a short-term offer that allows him to opt out and retest free agency. Fellow Boras Corporation client Cody Bellinger took that route on a three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs over the weekend. It’s hard to envision Snell turning in a better platform season than the one he had in 2023, though. He allowed only 2.25 earned runs per nine over the course of the year and turned in a 1.23 mark from June onward.

The Yankees have reportedly had an offer out to Snell for weeks. Heyman reported this morning that his camp spoke with New York brass again yesterday but didn’t have any kind of breakthrough. The Angels have also been loosely linked to Snell.

Chapman, on the other hand, doesn’t play a position of strict need. The Giants have a solid third baseman in J.D. Davis. Were they to land Chapman, they’d likely flip Davis to a team with a more pressing desire for help at the hot corner. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new manager Bob Melvin both have ties to Chapman from their days with the A’s. He’d markedly upgrade the infield defense, although it’s debatable whether he’s enough of an offensive improvement on Davis to make that move worthwhile.

Zaidi recently suggested the team was unlikely to make any more free agent splashes this offseason. Perhaps that was simply public posturing or the recent health uncertainty surrounding Winn and Beck could change the calculus. In any case, San Francisco should have payroll flexibility. Roster Resource projects their 2024 spending around $164MM. They’re at roughly $213MM in luxury tax obligations. That puts them about $24MM shy of both the base CBT threshold and last year’s Opening Day payroll.

Signing Snell, in particular, would likely push them into luxury tax territory — especially if they added him on a higher-AAV deal to avoid a lengthy commitment. It’d be easier to fit Chapman onto the ledger without going into CBT range, since they’d then have reason to shed Davis’ $6.9MM salary in trade.

The fees for surpassing the luxury tax would be relatively modest if they edged past $237MM. They’d only owe a 20% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM. The Giants last paid the CBT in 2017. Snell and Chapman each declined the qualifying offer; signing either player would cost the Giants their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft and $500K in international bonus pool space.

Yankees Continue Talks With Blake Snell

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As Blake Snell continues to linger in free agency, speculation regarding him and the Yankees persists. The Yanks reportedly offered the lefty five years and $150MM before pivoting to sign Marcus Stroman on a two-year deal last month. Since then, it’s been reported that the Yankees still have an offer out to Snell, though the shape of that offer is presumably different after signing Stroman and pushing themselves into the top tier of luxury-tax penalization in the process. Whatever is presently on the table doesn’t appear to be a “take it or leave it” type of offer, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees and Snell talked about various contract parameters as recently as yesterday.

Notably, Heyman writes that agent Scott Boras has suggested the possibility of a shorter-term deal with higher annual salaries and opt-out opportunities. That’d be a pivot from Snell seeking maximum guarantees, as has been the case throughout the winter. It’s also not a concept that works well with a team in the Yankees’ situation.

The Yankees are a third-time luxury tax payor who are in the top tier of penalization. Any additional spending at this point will be taxed at 110%. And since the luxury tax is based on a contract’s average annual value, there’s no skirting the issue by backloading a deal. In that sense, dialing up the contract’s AAV only further penalizes the Yankees. The taxes are only part of the issue. New York would also be forfeiting its second- and fifth-highest draft selections, as well as $1MM from next year’s international bonus pool, in order to sign Snell, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.

A longer-term pact that stretches out an agreed-upon guarantee while weighing down the AAV would be more sensible. The Yankees took that approach with DJ LeMahieu in free agency a couple years back, when he inked a six-year deal at a time when a contract around four years was widely expected. There’s no indication such an arrangement is currently being discussed, however, and going longer term on Snell would present the Yankees with its own slate of worrying factors. New York already has Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton under contract through the 2027 season. Each of Cole, Rodon and Judge are on the books through 2028, giving the Yankees $103MM in guaranteed money on the books in a season that’s still four years down the road. Add in the $10MM buyout on Stanton’s 2028 option, and that’s $113MM of considerations for that season.

Furthermore, they’ll very likely wind up tacking an extra year onto Cole’s contract this coming offseason. The reigning AL Cy Young winner has an opt-out in his contract after the ’24 season, but the Yankees can void that by picking up a 2029 club option at $36MM. That’d give the Yanks $76MM on the books as far down the line as 2029; adding Snell on a long-term deal designed to tamp down his contract’s AAV could push them close to or even north of $100MM in commitments a half-decade from the current season. Not only that, but Judge will be 37 that year and Cole will be 38. Snell would be 36. It’d be plenty understandable if the Yankees have some trepidation about locking in $100MM+ in guarantees to three players who’ll be 36 or older in 2029.

Heyman also notes that the Yankees have some interest in fellow lefty and fellow unsigned Boras client Jordan Montgomery, whom they of course originally drafted and developed. However, the Yankees prefer Snell, and the financial hurdles just laid out regarding Snell applies to Montgomery — but on a slightly smaller scale, as he doesn’t have quite the earning power of a two-time Cy Young winner.

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

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Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

Who Will Be The First To Sign?

  • Blake Snell. 30% (4,441)
  • Jordan Montgomery. 30% (4,434)
  • Matt Chapman. 21% (3,121)
  • Cody Bellinger. 18% (2,691)

Total votes: 14,687

 

How Many Of The Boras Four Will Sign After Opening Day?

  • 2 33% (3,960)
  • 1 19% (2,236)
  • 3 14% (1,603)
  • 4 13% (1,503)

Total votes: 11,841

 

Pohlad: Twins “Not In The Market” For Top Remaining Free Agents

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As the baseball world collectively wonders where top-tier free agents like Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman will sign, it seems scarcely a day goes by without at least one team effectively proclaiming itself to be out of that market. The Rangers, Blue Jays, Angels, Giants, Nationals and Mariners have all seen a top baseball ops executive or ownership representative cast doubt on their ability and/or willingness to make further free agent additions of note. Add the Twins to that growing list, as owner Joe Pohlad said in an appearance with WCCO radio’s Jason DeRusha today that his club isn’t likely to make a significant late splash like they did when signing Carlos Correa a couple offseasons ago (audio link).

“…We’re not going to go out and spend $30MM on a player right now,” Pohlad plainly stated without mentioning any of Bellinger, Snell, Montgomery or Chapman by name. “The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players.”

Minnesota never looked like a good fit for either of the position players — particularly Chapman — but the Twins are known to be looking for rotation help after seeing Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle depart as free agents. A late deal with Snell or Montgomery would’ve registered as something of a surprise, given the organization’s candid acknowledgment of plans to reduce payroll amid television uncertainty this winter, but their late entry into the Correa market a couple winters ago might’ve left some to wonder whether a similar approach could be in the offing here. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote just yesterday that he “would not discount the Twins as a wild card” for the remaining starters, but Pohlad’s comments today strongly suggest otherwise.

The Twins said early this winter that payroll would likely take a step back, and at the time, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported a rough target of $125-140MM. Minnesota currently sits just south of that number, at a projected $123.5MM per Roster Resource. It should be noted that Pohlad did not rule out any subsequent additions at all — rather just a big play at the top end of the market.

“…There are definitely other players that can have a positive impact on our team that [president of baseball operations Derek Falvey], I’m sure, is looking at,” Pohlad added.

The Twins, for instance, have reportedly expressed interest in unsigned players like Michael Lorenzen, Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor. Signing one or even two of those names would cost considerably less than a run at Montgomery or Snell. They also watched old friend Jake Odorizzi’s recent workout for teams. Falvey and his staff have also never been ones to shy away from trades late in the offseason. Deals to acquire Pablo Lopez (Jan. 23) and Odorizzi (Feb. 17) were both completed well after the New Year in their respective offseasons. The acquisition of Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan came on the eve of Opening Day in 2022.  It remains possible that some pitching or right-handed-hitting outfield help could be acquired via that market.

Generally speaking, it’s been a quiet offseason for the Twins. They shipped stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners late last month in a deal netting right-handers Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen. Minnesota netted about $6.5MM in that deal as well and reinvested that money in free agent deals to sign Carlos Santana and Jay Jackson. More recently, they flipped utilityman Nick Gordon to the Marlins for lefty reliever Steven Okert.

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