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Giants’ Chairman On Zaidi, Offseason Plans

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Giants chairman Greg Johnson recently spoke to reporters, including Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle, regarding the contract status of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi as well as the club’s plans heading into the home stretch of the offseason.

On Zaidi, Johnson revealed that the extension the club announced back in October that would keep Zaidi in San Francisco through the 2026 season has not yet been finalized. That’s something of a surprise, given Johnson said at the time of the announcement that the deal had been “agreed [upon] in principle” and would be formally announced in the near future. That, of course, didn’t come to pass, though Johnson nonetheless noted that the extension is a “done deal.”

“It’s effectively done,” Johnson said (as relayed by Kroichick). “He probably has signed it; I’m probably the one who hasn’t because I haven’t been around enough. But we’re done.”

The extension for Zaidi, whose current deal runs through the end of the 2024 campaign, came as something of a surprise given the club’s inconsistency during his tenure in San Francisco. The Giants posted losing seasons in his first two campaigns with the club before mustering a phenomenal 107-win 2021 season that propelled the club to its first NL West title since 2012. Since that strong showing, however, the club has been marred by middling performances. The club finished the 2022 season with a .500 record before slipping back underwater in 2023 with a 79-83 season that resulted in the club swapping out Gabe Kapler in favor of Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair.

Beyond the comments on Zaidi’s contract status, Johnson also spoke about the club’s ability to make further additions to the roster via free agency after spending on outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Jordan Hicks earlier this winter while also picking up southpaw Robbie Ray in a trade with the Mariners last month. Johnson was quick to emphasize that the club still has the capacity to continue improving the club via free agency, noting that “there are a lot of good players out there” who the club remains “very interested in.”

While Johnson didn’t specify any particular targets, previous reporting has indicated that the Giants view third baseman Matt Chapman as their top target on the positional market. Chapman, 31 in April, would substantially improve the club’s defense as a four-time Gold Glove award winner at third base who leads all big leaguers with +92 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner since he first debuted back in 2017. Chapman would also provide the club a substantial boost in terms of power. While he veteran hit just 17 home runs last season, his .203 isolated slugging since the start of the 2020 season could nonetheless provide a dramatic boost to a Giants lineup that posted an anemic .149 ISO last year, good for just 23rd in the majors. Among all Giants with at least 100 plate appearances last season, only Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski posted an ISO of .200 or more.

By contrast, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that comments from Zaidi in the wake of the Hicks signing last month indicated the club may not pursue further starting rotation additions. Johnson somewhat backed that notion up, with Shea quoting Johnson as having said that he thinks the club is “going to have to rely on some younger pitching” headed into the season with veterans Alex Cobb and Ray both expected to start the season on the shelf. Those signals from both the front office and ownership seemingly cast doubt on the likelihood of San Francisco making a splash at the top of the rotation market, where southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the consensus best arms remaining.
If the Giants truly are unlikely to make a run at further rotation upgrades, it would be something of a surprise. After all, after trading away both Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling while watching Alex Wood and Sean Manaea depart via free agency, the Giants have seen their starting pitching depth take a major hit this winter. While both Cobb and Ray could provide reinforcements later in the season, the club currently figures to go with rookies Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison, youngster Tristan Beck, and Hicks to round out the club’s rotation alongside Logan Webb.

Only Hicks debuted in the majors prior to the 2023 campaign among that quartet, and the righty has made just eight starts in the majors to this point in his career. Adding a reliable arm to the mix alongside Webb would give the club a significantly deeper and more stable rotation mix to open the season with while lessening the club’s need to rely on speedy returns from Cobb and Ray as they rehab from their respective surgeries. If the club doesn’t have the financial wherewithal to stomach a nine-figure commitment to Snell or Montgomery, a handful of decent mid-to-back of the rotation arms such as Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen also remain available.

The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.

Top-of-the-Market Arms

  • Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
  • Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.

Solid Innings

  • Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
  • Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
  • Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.

Injury Cases

  • Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
  • Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.

Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.

Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

Yankees Notes: Snell, Injuries, Judge

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Earlier this month, the Yankees reportedly made an offer to left-hander Blake Snell, the top remaining starting pitcher on the open market this winter. At the time, no deal got done due to what was reportedly a significant gap between the sides, which ultimately led GM Brian Cashman and his front office to pivot to a two-year deal for right-hander Marcus Stroman. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on Snell’s free agency today, noting that while the Yankees offered Snell $150MM over six years, Snell is in search of either a longer deal or one with an annual salary of at least $30MM.

While that’s still a reasonably substantial gap, it provides more reason for optimism that the sides could come together on a deal later in the offseason than previous reporting that indicated the sides were nearly $100MM apart in negotiations. Feinsand goes on to note that while other teams have shown interest in the lefty this winter, the Yankees’ offer is only the one a team has formally put forward to Snell this winter. Feinsand goes on to indicate that it isn’t yet clear if the club remains in on Snell after adding Stroman, a possibility that echoes the club’s reported focus on bullpen additions at this point in the offseason.

Still, it’s easy to see why the club would have interest in adding Snell to its rotation. While the addition of Stroman raises the floor of the club’s rotation considerably, the club lacks a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole, thanks in large part to the question marks surrounding southpaws Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes after injury-marred 2023 campaigns. Adding Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who has averaged 27 starts a season over the past three campaigns, would give the club another reliable arm with substantial upside. If the sides aren’t able to come together on a deal, the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays are among other suitors who could have interest in Snell’s services this winter.

More from the Bronx…

  • Cashman told reporters (including Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News) recently that veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo is currently cleared for full baseball activities and that doctors are not worried about symptoms of post-concussion syndrome returning in 2024, though he noted that dealing with injuries involving the brain is “tricky.” Rizzo played for over two months after sustaining a head injury in a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. last May before being placed on the IL in early August. Rizzo slashed an impressive .304/.376/.505 in 53 games prior to the collision before slumping to a brutal .172/.271/.225 slash line in his final 46 games of the year. If the 34-year-old can come close to replicating his early season production in 2024, he’ll be a key fixture in the club’s lineup as the Yankees look to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason for the first time since 2016.
  • As relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, Cashman also discussed the health of veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton with reporters recently, noting the club’s DH is in a “really good place” following his injury-marred 2023 campaign where he slashed just .191/.275/.420 in 101 games. Cashman added that Stanton’s diet and conditioning work this offseason has helped him to prepare for a healthy return to action in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone seemed to echo those sentiments during a recent appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, noting that Stanton is preparing for “occasional” starts in the outfield during the upcoming campaign. While that’s nothing new for Stanton, who has started between 93 games on the outfield grass over the past three seasons, it’s nonetheless noteworthy that he’ll continue to receive those starts in the field even after the club bolstered its outfield mix with the additions of Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, and Trent Grisham earlier this winter.
  • In his aforementioned appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, Boone also discussed Aaron Judge and his new role as the club’s regular center fielder headed into the 2024 season. The club’s manager expressed confidence in Judge’s ability to handle the everyday center field job as he heads into his age-32 season despite the hulking slugger’s lengthy injury history, though he did note that he hopes to rest Judge at DH or in left field “once or twice a week” with Grisham taking over duties in center. Assuming the club plans on starting Soto in an outfield corner everyday, that would leave just one spot in the club’s outfield/DH mix for Stanton and Verdugo on days where Grisham is covering for Judge in center. Sacrificing starts for the outfield’s other regulars figures to be a worthwhile gamble for the club to take as long as it helps Judge stay healthy, as the team’s captain has slashed an sensational .294/.417/.657 in 263 games over the past two seasons.

Blue Jays Reportedly “Monitoring” Blake Snell’s Market

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In the aftermath of the offseason’s top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signing with the Dodgers late last month, the market for #2 pitching free agent Blake Snell has begun to pick up. The Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, and Angels have all been connected to Snell in recent weeks and the Yankees are known to have made an offer for the lefty’s services. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides details on that offer, suggesting that while Snell’s camp is seeking “at least $240MM” this winter, the Yankees’ offer came in “nearly $100MM” below that target.

Since those initial connections, both the Giants and Yankees have made rotation additions that might take them out of the market for Snell: The Giants picked up Robbie Ray in trade with the Mariners and signed Jordan Hicks to bolster their rotation mix, while the Yankees added Marcus Stroman to their own starting five. While it’s unclear whether or not either club’s interest in Snell persists beyond those additions, it’s at least fair to say that they’re in a less desperate position regarding starting pitcher than they were a few weeks ago. Even if those two clubs are no longer part of Snell’s market, however, Nightengale suggests that there are “several” teams that remain engaged with Snell’s camp in hopes his hefty price tag will drop as the offseason continues. In particular, he notes that the Blue Jays “have been quietly monitoring” Snell throughout his free agency.

Toronto would be something of a surprising fit for Snell. While the club was among the finalists involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, the club has seemed to eschew a more general foray into the pitching side of free agency this winter in favor of bolstering a lineup that lost Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Brandon Belt to free agency this winter after key bats such as George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. under-performed in 2023. By contrast, starting pitching proved to be a notable strength of the Blue Jays’ roster last season as the club was led by ace righty Kevin Gausman and saw strong rebound campaigns from both Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios after difficult seasons in 2022.

With that being said, the Blue Jays made clear they had money to spend this winter with their strong bid for the services of Shohei Ohtani last month and the club’s recent additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa make a strong pursuit of Cody Bellinger or Chapman, the offseason’s best remaining positional free agents, less likely than they appeared to be earlier this winter. With money available and few clear fits in free agency to spend it on, a pursuit of Snell could place Toronto’s rotation firmly among the best in the game. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Snell led the majors with a sterling 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work last season and would create an enviable duo at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Gausman.

A pursuit of Snell would also provide the Jays with protection against potential injury or ineffectiveness that they lack after veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu departed for free agency back in November. While the club’s rotation looks strong on paper, a regression from Kikuchi or Berrios or continued struggles from Alek Manoah after an abysmal 2023 campaign could hamper the club’s ability to emerge from a competitive AL East with a playoff spot next season. Even Chris Bassitt, despite serving as one of the most reliable mid-rotation starters in the game in recent years, threw a career-high 200 frames last year across 33 starts and is entering his age-35 season in 2024. While top prospect Rickey Tiedemann could factor into the club’s rotation mix sometime next season and provide the depth the club’s starting five currently lacks, the addition of another quality rotation piece such as Snell would take pressure off of a 21-year-old hurler with just four innings of work at the Triple-A level headed into what could be his rookie campaign.

Of course, adding a bat-first player to the club’s beleaguered offense is surely a higher priority than a pursuit of any pitcher, and the club may prefer to keep its financial powder dry with an eye on a robust free agent class next offseason that currently projects to include offensive stars such as Juan Soto, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Nightengale seemingly indicates that the Blue Jays don’t have interest in adding Snell at his current, hefty asking price, and even if the price on his services does drop its likely a rotation-needy club such as the Red Sox or Angels would have more incentive to win a bidding war than Toronto. If the Blue Jays are hoping to add depth to their rotation without breaking the bank, pursuing a hurler capable of swinging between the rotation and the bullpen such as Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, or previously-rumored target Yariel Rodriguez could provide the club with additional depth while leaving the door open to a pursuit of Bellinger, Chapman, or any of next winter’s star free agents.

Yankees Have Made Offer To Blake Snell

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The Yankees have made an opening contract offer to free agent starter Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, but Heyman adds the team and Snell’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain “far apart” in talks.

New York is one of the teams that has been most frequently connected to Snell in recent weeks. That’s at least in part because they’re seemingly involved on most or all of the big-name pitchers available. They’ve been linked to old friend Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency. On the trade front, reports have tied the Yankees to the likes of Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Shane Bieber.

It doesn’t seem they’re all that close on any of those players. Heyman reports the Yankees have thus far balked at Chicago’s asking price on Cease, which he adds involves a prospect package centered around 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones. Baseball America recently ranked Jones, who hit .268/.337/.450 with 13 homers in High-A last year, as the #2 talent in the New York farm system. That’s consistent with various reports that Chicago wants multiple high-end prospects for Cease.

Meanwhile, Heyman notes there’s been “no traction” between the Yankees and Miami on talks involving Luzardo or righty Edward Cabrera. It’s unclear whether rentals like Bieber or Corbin Burnes will move this offseason. If New York doesn’t pick up steam on any of their trade conversations — they’ve surely discussed possibilities beyond what has been publicly reported — that could increase their urgency to add a top-of-the-rotation starter via free agency.

Snell and Montgomery are the clear top two options available. The incumbent Rangers have been linked to Montgomery throughout the offseason. Teams like the Angels, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox have been tied to both left-handers. The Giants and Halos have been more frequently linked to Snell than have the latter two clubs.

The Yankees are the first team known to have an offer on the table (although that’s certainly not to say there aren’t others that were unreported). Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young campaign. He worked to an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings. He fanned over 31% of batters faced and was utterly dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.23 ERA from June 1 onward. His command is erratic, but few pitchers are as difficult to hit when they’re on.

A pursuit of Snell is fairly reminiscent of last winter’s run at Carlos Rodón, another left-hander with huge stuff coming off an excellent platform year despite some career inconsistency. Rodón’s six-year, $162MM deal looked disastrous in year one. While one could argue that should make the Yankees gun-shy about pursuing a similar pitcher, it also increases the need for another high-end starter. Neither Rodón nor Nestor Cortes looked like top-of-the-rotation arms last season. That leaves New York looking for another star to pitch behind Gerrit Cole and reduce some of the pressure on Rodón and Cortes.

MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space. New York’s luxury tax payroll sits around $291MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar beyond that figure.

Latest On Yankees’ Starting Pitching Pursuits

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The Yankees are well-established as seeking an arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole at the front of their rotation. For much of the offseason, the club had their sights set on NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, though they’ve had to shift gears in the aftermath of the right-hander’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last month. The club has seemingly stepped those pursuits up recently as recent reports have connected the club to both right-hander Dylan Cease via trade and southpaw Blake Snell in free agency. Jon Heyman of the New York Post provided an update on the club’s pitching pursuits recently, noting that “there’s a belief” within the organization that the club will be successful in adding a front-of-the-rotation arm before the season begins. Heyman adds that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner is “on board” with the idea of making a significant addition to the rotation, suggesting a willingness on the side of ownership to spend on rotation improvements.

Of course, commitment to adding a front-of-the-rotation starter and actually doing so are two different things, and Heyman reports that the club has continued to engage with Snell in free agency, though there’s a notable gap between the sides in negotiations. The same goes for left-hander Jordan Montgomery, though Heyman notes that the Yankees believe they have a better shot of signing Snell among the two southpaws. Montgomery, of course, was drafted by the Yankees in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and spent six and a half seasons in the Bronx before being shipped to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline.

Heyman suggests that Montgomery may prefer to return to the Rangers this offseason after winning the World Series with the club last year. Even if that’s the case, however, it’s worth noting that Texas’s front office has indicated the club doesn’t have much room in the budget for significant additions. That could pose a major roadblock to a Montgomery reunion in Arlington, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently reported that the left-hander is seeking a contract that would surpass the $172MM Aaron Nola re-signed in Philadelphia for back in November. That ask still positions him as cheaper than Snell, who Sherman notes is believed to be seeking more than $200MM this winter.

As for Cease, Heyman notes that the White Sox and Yankees face a “serious gap” in negotiations, with Yankees brass uncertain whether or not Chicago truly plans to move Cease before the beginning of the season and Heyman noting they’d face in uphill battle in outbidding other potential suitors like the Reds and Orioles for the righty’s services. With that being said, Cease isn’t the only player the Yankees are looking into on the trade market. Heyman reports that the club has discussed a trade with the Marlins as the club fields interest on lefties Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, and Braxton Garrett as well as right-hander Edward Cabrera, though he adds that those sides don’t appear to be close on a deal, either.

Even so, the Marlins could prove to be a cleaner fit as a trade partner for the Yankees than the White Sox. Miami has a clear need for a starting shortstop as things stand; the club currently has utilityman Jon Berti penciled into the everyday shortstop role with the likes of Vidal Brujan and Xavier Edwards as potential depth options. New York, meanwhile, has plenty of depth in the middle infield, where 2023’s double play duo of Anthony Volpe and Gleyber Torres figure to block youngster Oswald Peraza from regular playing time in the majors. While the Yankees were recently granted additional flexibility in how they handle Peraza via a fourth option year on the slick-fielding infielder, the 23-year-old could make plenty of sense as the centerpiece of a package that lands the Yankees a quality rotation piece.

However the Yankees end up addressing their rotation woes, it’s clear that the club needs to make an addition. Each of Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Luis Severino, and Domingo German have parted ways with the club this offseason by way of either trade or free agency, severely hampering the club’s rotation depth. While Cole provides the club with a reliable, innings-eating ace at the front-of-the-rotation, both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off 2023 season hampered by injuries and ineffectiveness. Clarke Schmidt’s first season as a regular member of the starting rotation saw him perform on the level of a back-end starter, but without an external addition the club’s final rotation spot would go to an unproven arm such as Clayton Beeter or Luis Gil.

Yankees Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees are interested in left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That meshes with reporting from Andy Martino of SNY, who says the club is “planning an active January” as it hopes to add to its pitching staff before Spring Training. Martino adds that Snell has privately expressed an interest in the Yankees, though also adds they are not the only club in his market.

The Yankees were heavily pursuing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, highlighting their desire to add to their rotation. Previous reports from Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic suggested that, if the Yanks missed on Yamamoto, they might pivot to build a super bullpen instead of focusing on the rotation. Now that Yamamoto has signed with the Dodgers, the Yankees are exploring their other options and it seems they haven’t totally abandoned the idea of a significant rotation addition. They have had ongoing interest in bringing back Jordan Montgomery and now Snell appears to be on the table as well.

If they were to sign Snell, they would have a rotation fronted by the two reigning Cy Young winners. Snell just took home the National League hardware for his excellent season with the Padres while Gerrit Cole got the American League trophy. Despite that, the pitchers are actually quite different. While Cole has been the poster boy for stability and reliability, Snell’s career has been more erratic.

He finished 2023 with 180 innings pitched for the Friars, registering a 2.25 ERA in that time. He struck out 31.5% of batters faced and kept 44.4% of batted balls on the ground but also gave out walks at a 13.3% clip. That got him second career Cy Young, the first coming with the Rays in 2018 when he had a 1.89 ERA. But the four seasons in between those two elite campaigns were more shaky. His ERA finished 4.20 or higher twice and he didn’t reach 130 innings in any of them, dealing with various injuries.

Those concerns aside, Snell is clearly one of the best pitchers in the league when things are going well and he has received interest from the Giants, Angels, Mets and Red Sox. The Yankees slotting him next to Cole would give the club an excellent one-two punch. Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes are each coming off disappointing injury-marred seasons but have been excellent in the past. If they are able to bounce back this year, and the club signs Snell, then they would be looking at arguably the best front four in the league. The depth was thinned out in the Juan Soto deal, with four pitchers going to San Diego, but the Yanks still have Clarke Schmidt, Clayton Beeter, Yoendrys Gómez, Luis Gil and Will Warren as options for the back end.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell to land a seven-year deal worth $200MM, around $28.6MM per year. The Yankees haven’t been shy about handing out huge deals for starting pitchers in recent years, as they gave Cole $324MM, Rodon $162MM and reportedly offered Yamamoto $300MM over 10 years.

Per Roster Resource, the club currently has a payroll of $279MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $290MM. The Yanks are set to pay the luxury tax for a third straight year, meaning they have a base tax rate of 50% for any spending beyond the lowest threshold of $237MM. As the brackets go up in $20MM increments, their tax rates jump to 62%, 95% and 110%. They are already well beyond the third line and just $7MM away from the highest tier. That means that signing Snell to a salary in the $25-30MM range would actually cost them around twice as much when factoring in the taxes.

Last year, the club was reluctant to pass the final tier but it feels as though they are more willing to blow past it this year, given that they are so close to it and still actively pursuing upgrades. Even if they eventually turn away from a rotation addition and turn instead to relievers like Jordan Hicks or Robert Stephenson, they would still find themselves on the other side of the border.

Latest On Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery

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While many around the game have long assumed that the free agent market, particularly that for pitching, would pick up following right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s decision to sign with the Dodgers last week, that seemingly has not come to fruition to this point. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com suggests that may be due to the fact that agent Scott Boras, who represents top remaining free agent starters Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, “may be keen” on taking his time in finding new homes for the two southpaws. That’s hardly out of character for Boras, who has in previous seasons allowed star clients to linger on the free agent market well into Spring Training, as he did with Bryce Harper during the 2018-19 offseason.

That willingness to wait out the market could be, at least in part, due to the number of potential suitors still available for the pair to choose from. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests that the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, and Angels are all interested in both lefties. The Angels and Giants were linked to Snell last week, though their apparent interest in Montgomery was not mentioned in that reporting. Heyman also adds that the Yankees have interest in Montgomery, who had previously been floated as a back-up plan for them if they failed to lure Yamamoto to the Bronx, though he notes that it’s unclear if the club is interested in Snell as well.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Angels and Giants would expand their purview beyond Snell to include Montgomery, given the duo’s status as the clear top starters on the free agent market and each team’s obvious needs in the rotation. Likewise, the Yankees are known to be in the market for a top-of-the-rotation starter and clearly aren’t afraid to spend big after reportedly making Yamamoto a $300MM offer. Similarly, the Red Sox have been connected to top-of-the-rotation arms all throughout the offseason, though Cotillo cautions that the club is currently more focused on free agent arms a tier below Snell and Montgomery like Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga.

The Phillies are perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list. While the club was among the finalists for Yamamoto’s services, the club has reportedly since pivoted to prioritizing a contract extension with Zack Wheeler rather than adding additional impact talent to the 2024 club. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed as much when discussing the club’s pursuit of Yamamoto with reporters recently, noting that future additions to the club figure to come “more around the edges” of the roster than anywhere else. That being said, the club evidently had the payroll space available to be a significantly player in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, making it at least feasible that the Phillies could make the top offer to either Montgomery or Snell if they so chose. Reporting early in the offseason described the club as “lukewarm” on Snell, though it’s possible the club’s tune regarding Snell has changed now that he would be pitching alongside Nola in the rotation rather than replacing the club’s homegrown ace.

The two southpaws’ markets being somewhat intertwined is not necessarily a surprise given their stature as the clear best free agent starters remaining on the market. That being said, the pair bring noticeably different skillsets to the table. Montgomery, who celebrated his 31st birthday yesterday, has been a model of consistency in recent years, with his year-to-year stats never drifting too far from his career norms: a solid 22.5% strikeout rate, a low 6.6% walk rate, and a 3.68 ERA (116 ERA+). With that being said, Montgomery’s 2023 season saw him take a step forward in terms of his run-prevention numbers as the lefty posted a 3.20 ERA and 3.56 FIP across a career-high 188 2/3 innings of work, giving him the look of a potential front-of-the-rotation workhorse with a stable, middle-of-the-rotation floor.

Snell, by contrast, has seen significantly higher highs and lower lows throughout his career in the big leagues. Having won the AL Cy Young award in 2018 and the NL Cy Young award this past season, Snell is among the most electric pitchers in baseball when he’s on as demonstrated by his sterling 1.23 ERA and sensational 35% strikeout rate over the final 23 starts of his 2023 campaign. On the other hand, however, Snell is also prone to stretches of significant struggles. From 2019-21, Snell posted just a 4.06 ERA and 3.73 FIP across 61 starts thanks to a severe problem with home runs (16.9% of his fly balls left the yard during that time) and a concerning 10.6% walk rate. During that three-year stretch, Snell had the look of a #4 starter despite never posting a strikeout rate below 30%. Even in his best years, he struggles to maintain his command as demonstrated by him allowing free passes at a league-leading 13.3% clip even en route to the second Cy Young award of his career this season.

Even as the suitors for both players are mostly similar, the differences in how each lefty gets to his results may be creating disparity in their price tags on the open market. Cotillo suggests that while Montgomery is expected to command a “massive” deal this offseason, some in the industry reportedly believe Snell’s market is less robust with Cotillo noting that a “person with knowledge of the pitching market” suggested that teams could end up offering Snell a three-year deal with a high average annual value and multiple opt-outs, similar to the deal shortstop (and fellow Boras client) Carlos Correa signed with the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Of course, that report is just one source’s view of Snell’s market. It’s worth noting that MLBTR projected Snell for a far more significant seven-year, $200MM contract in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed fourth behind only Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Yamamoto. While a deal similar to Correa’s first pact in Minnesota could certainly make sense for Snell if his market fails to materialize, the number of clubs reportedly in search of front-of-the-rotation talent and Boras’s previous willingness to wait out the market in search of the best deal make it unlikely a more creative, shorter-term arrangement would come together anytime soon.

This Date In Transaction History: Blake Snell Trade

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Today marks three years since the blockbuster that sent a former (and future) Cy Young winner across leagues. The Rays dealt Blake Snell to the Padres in the late evening of December 27, 2020, bringing back a four-player prospect package. Luis Patiño headlined the return, which also included Blake Hunt, former top prospect Francisco Mejía and 2020 third-round draftee Cole Wilcox.

The deal came as something of a surprise, as the Rays weren’t under huge financial pressure to move Snell. Despite the controversy surrounding Kevin Cash’s decision to lift Snell in Game 6 of that year’s Fall Classic, Tampa Bay could’ve held the southpaw into the following season. Snell was under contract for respective salaries of $10.5MM, $12.5MM and $16MM covering the 2021-23 campaigns.

Nevertheless, the Tampa Bay front office felt the prospect return was too strong to pass up. Patiño was viewed as one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects despite struggling in a brief MLB debut that season. Hunt was a borderline Top 100 minor leaguer at the time. Mejía’s stock had fallen from its peak as he struggled against big league pitching, but he was only entering his age-25 season and had less than three years of MLB service. Wilcox was viewed by many evaluators as a first-round talent that year, only dropping to the third because of a lofty bonus demand.

The deal didn’t pan out at all as the Rays had envisioned. While Snell has had a volatile career, he recaptured the ace-caliber upside he’d shown in Tampa Bay. After turning in a 4.20 ERA over 27 starts during his first year with the Friars, he rebounded to post a 3.38 mark in 2022. The cumulative 3.79 ERA he managed across 256 2/3 innings was solid, although it didn’t hint at the Cy Young level he’d reach in 2023.

Snell didn’t start the ’23 campaign well. He owned a 5.48 ERA with a strikeout rate just under 24% through the first month. After a slight uptick in strikeouts and a 3.82 mark in May, Snell kicked off a four-month stretch as the most dominant pitcher on the planet. From June 1 on, he struck out 35% of batters faced and allowed 1.23 earned runs per nine. His 1.54 ERA after the All-Star Break is the 12th-lowest second half rate since 2000 (minimum 75 innings).

The dominating finish led Snell to cruise to a second career Cy Young. He was a near-unanimous choice as the NL’s top pitcher after posting an MLB-best 2.25 ERA through 180 innings. Snell hit free agency and seems unlikely to return to a San Diego organization that has cut spending. Assuming he signs elsewhere in the coming weeks, he concludes his time as a Padre with a 3.15 ERA while striking out 31.5% of opponents in 436 2/3 frames.

As a team, San Diego didn’t have the kind of success they envisioned. They reached the postseason just once in the last three years. A second-half collapse cost them a playoff berth in 2021. They rebounded with a trip to the NLCS in ’22 but finished 82-80 last season. A strong final couple weeks ostensibly brought them within a couple games of a playoff spot, but the 2023 club was more or less finished by the end of August.

One can debate whether the Friars should’ve more aggressively marketed Snell, Juan Soto and Josh Hader at the deadline. A fringe contender at the time, they elected to add around the margins rather than move their top impending free agents or Soto (whose arbitration price tag they knew was rising). As a team that exceeded the luxury tax threshold, they’ll only receive picks after the fourth round as compensation for losing Snell and Hader, each of whom rejected a qualifying offer.

San Diego’s subsequent decisions don’t negate how well they fared in the Snell trade, however. That turned out to be one of the more lopsided deals of the past few seasons. No one in the return found much success in Tampa Bay. Three of the four are out of the organization entirely.

Patiño saw MLB action in each season from 2021-23. He logged 101 1/3 innings as a Ray, turning in a 5.24 ERA. Patiño’s control hasn’t developed as expected and he has struggled with home runs throughout his MLB tenure. The Rays moved on at the deadline, sending him to the White Sox for cash. He ended up back in San Diego last week; the Friars claimed him when Chicago put him on waivers. He’s out of options, so he’ll either need to open the season on the MLB roster or be made available to other teams yet again.

Neither of the other prospects involved have reached the majors. Hunt has slowly climbed the minor league ladder, hitting at a roughly league average level at each stop. The Rays didn’t want to carry him on the 40-man roster, yet Hunt was eligible for minor league free agency after this season. Tampa Bay dealt him to the Mariners (who did add him to the 40-man) for 2022 eighth-round pick Tatem Levins last month. Wilcox remains in the organization but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’21 season. He returned to post a 5.23 ERA in 25 starts at Double-A this year. He went unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few weeks ago.

Mejía, arguably the fourth piece of the return at the time, had the most success for Tampa Bay. The switch-hitting catcher had a .260/.322/.414 batting line in 84 games in 2021. His offense cratered over the last two years, though, as he hit .237/.262/.387 in 459 plate appearances over that stretch. The Rays designated him for assignment in August. He reached free agency at year’s end and signed a minor league deal with the Angels last week.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels, Giants Among Teams Pursuing Blake Snell

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The Angels have lost Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers and never appeared to be a finalist for NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but they’re pursuing the biggest fish remaining on the free agent market, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who reports that the Halos have made reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell “their priority” now that Ohtani has officially departed. The Giants, too, are interested in Snell, per Slusser.

Signing Snell would be a departure from the norm for either club. The Angels’ three-year commitment to Tyler Anderson last offseason was the organization’s first multi-year deal for a free agent starting pitcher since signing Joe Blanton to a two-year contract a decade prior. Owner Arte Moreno has been comfortable with long-term deals for position players — oftentimes mega-deals that haven’t worked out favorably (Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, Josh Hamilton) — but has generally been wary of similar commitments to pitchers. The Angels did pursue Gerrit Cole when he was a free agent, but they of course lost out to the Yankees’ then-record bid of $324MM. (Yamamoto topped that mark by $1MM when he agreed to terms with the Dodgers.)

Similarly, the Giants have eschewed long-term deals for starting pitchers in five years under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. San Francisco hasn’t gone beyond three years on any starting pitcher under the current regime — arguably a shrewd philosophy but also the reason that Kevin Gausman is starring for the Blue Jays on what now looks to be a wildly affordable five-year, $110MM contract. Zaidi’s club has gone to three years to sign Anthony DeSclafani and issued two-year deals for veterans Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling, but longer-term pacts haven’t been in this front office group’s playbook.

Then again, the Giants also haven’t been consistently successful under this front office regime. Their 107-win season in 2021 stands as a clear highlight, but the Giants have fallen well shy of the lofty expectations set by that outlier season. Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic suggested earlier this week in his latest Giants mailbag that ownership could be providing “a little more direction from above” than in prior offseasons — particularly when it comes to this sort of long-term pursuit (one that, as Baggarly rightly notes, is largely possible by virtue of the front office’s prior aversion to taking on this sort of long-term risk). To be clear, Baggarly wasn’t addressing Snell in particular but rather the general philosophical shift associated with pursuing larger-scale additions from the free-agent market.

From a payroll vantage point, both the Halos and Giants can handle a weighty commitment to Snell, who’s reportedly been seeking a commitment of $200MM or more. San Francisco currently projects for a $158MM payroll, per Roster Resource, to say nothing of the fact that the Giants are about $45MM shy of the $237MM luxury-tax threshold. (Luxury tax is calculated by the sum of the average annual value on the payroll and can thus differ from the bottom-line dollars paid out in a given year; contracts are often backloaded or frontloaded for varying purposes.) The only two players signed beyond the 2025 season are ace Logan Webb (five years, $90MM from 2024-28) and newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, who inked a six-year, $113MM pact.

As for the Angels, they’re stuck paying the aforementioned Rendon $38MM for each of the next three seasons on his backloaded deal. There’s little no hope of trading that cumbersome contract away, so the team can only hope for a return to his Nationals form — unlikely as it may be as he enters his age-34 season. Anderson is signed through 2025 at $13MM per season, and the Angels still owe former MVP Mike Trout $34.45MM annually through the 2030 season.

Even with the huge commitments to Trout and Rendon, the Angels project for a $152MM payroll in 2024 and sit at just $167MM in terms of luxury-tax obligations. That leaves ample room to sign Snell, even if doing so would require shattering the franchise-record for a starting pitcher contract (Jered Weaver’s five-year, $85MM deal).

It stands to reason that with both Ohtani and Yamamoto now off the board, the market for Snell will continue to crystalize in the coming weeks. Several runners-up for Yamamoto, in particular, could pivot to consider Snell — although various reports out of New York have indicated that the Mets aren’t expected to be among them. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote last weekend that the Mets weren’t planning to pursue other top-tier free agents if they fell short in their bid for Yamamoto, whom they considered to be uniquely aligned with their long-term plan given his youth. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo echoed that sentiment today, reporting that the Mets shouldn’t be expected to pursue Snell or fellow free agent Jordan Montgomery.

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