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Hollander: Mariners Additions Likely To Be “More On The Margins”

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander met with reporters this afternoon to discuss the possibility of some late-offseason acquisitions. While Hollander — who is second in the Seattle front office hierarchy behind baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto — left the door ajar for anything, he indicated the likelier course of action was to supplement towards the back of the roster.

“You never know. I think this group of players that we have — our 40-man roster as is — we may add on the margins. We may add in a more significant way, but I would expect it’s probably more on the margins than a real significant way based on where we’re at,” Hollander said (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The comments come a couple days after Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the M’s have had internal discussions about Matt Chapman, one of the top four unsigned free agents. Hollander didn’t comment on Chapman — the CBA limits what team personnel are allowed to say regarding specific players — but Kramer writes that the M’s conversations about the third baseman occurred earlier in the month.

There was never any indication that Seattle is deeply involved in Chapman’s market. Kramer reports that the M’s interest has been contingent on the four-time Gold Glover lowering his asking price significantly. According to Kramer, a nine-figure deal for Chapman would be a “non-starter” for Seattle. The MLB.com report indicates the Mariners would be amenable to a shorter-term/incentive-laden contract, although that unsurprisingly hasn’t been of interest to Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corporation.

Third base looks like a relative weak point for Seattle. The Mariners dealt Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in Luis Urías in a small trade with the Red Sox and indirectly addressed the hot corner with last month’s Jorge Polanco deal. Installing Polanco at second base pushes lefty-hitting Josh Rojas over to third, likely in a platoon with the right-handed Urías.

Urías enters camp at a little less than full strength. The Mariners reveled today that he is battling some soreness in his throwing shoulder coming out of winter ball (via Divish). It’s not a serious issue but will keep him from throwing across the diamond in infield drills early in Spring Training.

Hollander downplayed any concern about the third base platoon. Asked if the M’s felt they’re vulnerable at the position, he replied: “I don’t really feel that way, no. … We feel really good about what the combination of Josh and Luis can do for us this year.”

That’s the expected tone for a GM to strike publicly. That said, Chapman is the only unsigned third baseman who’d be a clear upgrade on the Rojas/Urías pairing. If Seattle is simply keeping tabs on his market in case the opportunity presents itself to jump in at a lower price, they’re presumably otherwise content with their in-house options.

Seattle has also been loosely tied to the top two remaining free agents, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. The link to Snell has primarily been about geography rather than team need. The defending NL Cy Young winner is a Seattle native and there has been some speculation he could prefer to stay on the West Coast after three seasons in San Diego.

Despite that chatter, Kramer writes that the Mariners haven’t shown much interest in Snell at any point during the winter. The M’s traded rehabbing starter Robbie Ray and depth arm Marco Gonzales but have held onto their top five starters: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Former top 10 pick Emerson Hancock remains on hand as a high-upside depth piece.

Bellinger was arguably a better roster fit, but Kramer reports that Seattle hasn’t considered the former MVP in either of the past two offseasons. The M’s reacquired Mitch Haniger and brought in Luke Raley from Tampa Bay as part of a reshaped corner outfield. Seattle shipped out one-time top prospect Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger and Raley as the presumptive starters alongside Julio Rodríguez on the outfield grass.

Seattle has generally preferred the trade route over free agency under Dipoto, particularly with regards to position players. This offseason’s two-year, $24MM deal for Mitch Garver was the first multi-year free agent contract for a hitter that Seattle has given out in Dipoto’s tenure. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player spending in the $135MM range. That’s a middle-of-the-pack figure that’s right in line with last year’s approximate $137MM Opening Day sum.

Yankees Have Offer Out To Blake Snell

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It was reported over the weekend that the Yankees are still interested in free agent left-hander Blake Snell. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays today that the club currently has an offer out to the lefty, though adds that the Angels and Giants are still possibilities. Despite that offer, Andy Martino of SNY threw some cold water on the proceedings, suggesting there’s not much momentum to getting a deal done at the moment.

There’s also a report today from Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner at The Athletic indicating that the club has made an offer to the southpaw with no opt-outs. It’s clear in the article that the offer in question was made to Snell prior to the club signing Marcus Stroman. The Yankees reportedly offered Snell $150MM over six years back in January, but the lefty was looking for either a longer deal or one with an average annual value of $30MM or more.

MLBTR predicted Snell for a seven-year, $200MM deal at the start of the offseason but his lingering on the market for months has led to some speculation he would consider a short-term deal, a possibility MLBTR recently explored.

The details of this current offer from the Yankees aren’t known, but it seems unlikely it’s of the short-term, high AAV type. The report from Kuty and Kirschner highlights that the club may not be in the best position to take the high AAV route because of their competitive balance tax status. Per Roster Resource, the club’s CBT number is $307MM, already beyond the fourth and final tier of $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, any further spending comes with a 110% tax.

This would make it difficult for the club to get creative with Snell. Per the example used by Kuty and Kirschner, giving Snell a $40MM salary on a short-term deal would also come with $44MM in taxes, meaning the club would effectively be paying $84MM to get him on the roster this year.

This highlights the tricky position Snell is in at the moment. He is obviously incredibly talented, having just won a Cy Young last year after posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres. That makes him very attractive but clubs may not want to commit to him for a long tenure given his inconsistency. From 2019 to 2022, in between Cy Young wins, he had a 3.85 ERA and never got to 130 innings pitched in any of those campaigns. As good as he was last year, he had to pitch around a 13.3% walk rate and got help from a .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate.

That lack of reliability could push some clubs to preferring a short-term deal but many contenders are over the CBT and face significant taxes, such as the Yankees, while others have budgetary limitations due to the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group and uncertainty around TV revenue. The January offer from the Yanks came with an AAV of $25MM and perhaps their new offer adds an extra year or a little bit more money. With Martino suggesting nothing is close to getting done, perhaps it’s not significantly different from last month’s offer.

Even if there are some clubs with a bit of powder dry at this late stage of the winter, there are still lots of free agents out there, with Boras representing all of the top names. In addition to Snell, he’s also looking to get deals done for Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Hyun Jin Ryu and more. Finding significant deals for all of those guys will be an interesting juggling act for Boras, as getting a deal done for one guy might have the domino effect of closing off the earning potential of another.

The Yankees have an on-paper rotation that is strong with Gerrit Cole backed up by Carlos Rodón, Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a great group if everyone is healthy but each of Rodón, Stroman and Cortes missed significant time last year. The club also subtracted depth by including four starting pitchers in the Juan Soto trade. Signing Snell or some other starter could bump Schmidt down to sixth on the chart and into the minors, as he still has an option remaining.

Yankees Remain Interested In Blake Snell

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The Yankees made an offer to star southpaw Blake Snell last month, but pivoted to a deal with veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman shortly after due to a significant gap between the sides in negotiations. While it’s been unclear to this point whether negotiations between the sides have continued since the Yankees landed Stroman, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees continue to have “serious interest” in Snell, though they’re currently waiting for his asking price to drop.

Snell, 31, entered the offseason as the #2 starting pitcher on the market behind now-Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s easy to see why, as the reigning NL Cy Young award winner enjoyed an incredible 2023 season where he posted a majors-leading 2.25 ERA over 180 frames while striking out a whopping 31.5% of batters faced. Those incredible numbers came in spite of Snell leading the majors in walks as he issued free passes to 13.3% of batters faced. Snell’s dominance on the mound is belied somewhat by the inconsistency he’s struggled with in recent years, however. In the four years between his two Cy Young campaigns, he posted the numbers of a mid-to-back of the rotation arm, with a 3.85 ERA and a 3.44 FIP in a combined 413 2/3 innings of work.

That combination of dominance and inconsistency surely has played a role in the gaps Snell is facing between his camp and interested teams. One solution Nightengale floats as a possibility for Snell and the Yankees is a shorter deal, which MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the merits of early this week. Nightengale suggests that such a deal could come with a yearly salary “in excess of” $35MM. That would seemingly leave Snell likely to beat the short-term, opt-out laden deals signed by right-hander Trevor Bauer and fellow Boras client Carlos Correa in recent years. Bauer’s three-year, $102MM guarantee is a particularly interesting comp for Snell given that both hurlers flashed Cy Young caliber performances when at their best but also struggled with consistency, often posting results closer to the league average in down seasons.

Even as New York remains interested in Snell, the club has the makings of a solid rotation even if they enter Opening Day with their current options. Gerrit Cole is among the league’s best starters, and both Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes have enjoyed front-of-the-rotation caliber seasons in the past despite difficult 2023 campaigns. Stroman, meanwhile, is a reliable veteran arm who sports a 3.32 ERA dating back to the 2019 season. The fifth spot in the rotation should the Yankees not add another arm figures to go to right-hander Clarke Schmidt, who posted decent back-of-the-rotation numbers in his first season as a full-time starter last year. While the club would certainly benefit from adding Snell and allowing Schmidt to step into a depth role that the likes of Michael King, Randy Vasquez, and Jhony Brito vacated after being dealt to San Diego in the Juan Soto trade, the addition of Stroman created a credible five-man rotation in the Bronx, at least on paper.

Likewise, the Yankees are far from the only potential suitor for Snell’s services, particularly if the price comes down over the course of the coming weeks. The Angels are a frequently-discussed potential suitor for both him and fellow Boras southpaw Jordan Montgomery, while the likes of the Giants, Phillies, and Blue Jays have all been rumored to have potential interest in Snell should the price of his services falls into a range they’re comfortable with. It’s also possible that, in the event that Snell begins to entertain shorter-term offers at a higher AAV, new clubs that had not been tied to the southpaw previously emerge as potential suitors, as was the case with Correa and the Twins during the 2021-22 offseason.

Angels Hoping To Add To Rotation

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The Angels are looking to add to their rotation and have been “mulling” whether to make a run at Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post, though Heyman adds that they’re more likely to go after a back-end guy like Michael Lorenzen. The club has been loosely tied to Snell and Montgomery earlier in the offseason but without anything seeming close or particularly viable.

The club’s current rotation projects to be fronted by some combination Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Griffin Canning. Options for the fifth spot include Chase Silseth, José Suarez and Zach Plesac. That competition also would have had Sam Bachman in it, but Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports that Bachman had arthroscopic surgery last fall and won’t be ready for Opening Day.

That rotation mix has talent but plenty of question marks. Detmers had a 3.77 ERA in 2022 but it jumped to 4.48 last year. Sandoval went from 2.91 to 4.11 while Anderson jumped from 2.57 to 5.43. Canning was healthy enough to get to 127 innings pitched last year but that was a new high for him, thanks to injuries and the pandemic. Suarez missed most of last year due to a shoulder strain. Silseth has just 81 innings of MLB experience and only 45 2/3 at Triple-A. Plesac’s ERA shot up to 7.59 with the Guardians last year. There was some bad luck in there but he was nonetheless passed through waivers and outrighted off the roster.

Given those question marks and the inevitable pitcher injuries that arise in a long baseball season, there’s plenty of logic in adding to that group. A run at Snell or Montgomery would be interesting, as there are reasons to doubt the possibility. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the largest contract the Angels have given a starting pitching since the start of 2012 is the three years and $39MM they gave Anderson. That historical lack of spending on starting pitching and owner Arte Moreno’s recent comments about operating with a lower payroll this year would make it surprising to see the Angels suddenly splurge on Snell or Montgomery.

Even with a lower payroll, it’s possible they have some powder dry. They opened last year with an Opening Day payroll of $212MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and also flirted with the luxury tax line. This year, Roster Resource pegs them at $173MM, almost $40MM below where they were a year ago. Their CBT number of $188MM is almost $50MM below this year’s $237MM threshold. That could leave some wiggle room for them to make a notable signing while still having lowered their spending slightly.

Coming into the offseason, MLBTR predicted Snell for $200MM over seven years and Montgomery for $150MM over six. The fact they are still on the open market in mid-February suggests they may be having difficulty getting into that range, so perhaps there’s an opportunity for the Angels to make something work, despite their past resistance to long-term deals for starters.

Either would immediately become the best pitcher on the staff, if added. Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young victory, posting a 2.25 ERA with the Padres last year. He’s had his ups and downs but is obviously one of the best in the league when he’s throwing well. Montgomery has continued to build his innings totals and lower his ERA since returning from Tommy John surgery. He tossed 44 innings in 2020 with a 5.11 ERA, then got to 157 1/3 frames with a 3.83 ERA in 2021. He followed that up with 178 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball and then 188 2/3 innings with a 3.20 ERA last year, then adding another 31 postseason frames with a 2.90 ERA.

But signing someone like Lorenzen would be more the Angels’ style and they have, in fact, done it before. After years of being pushed to the bullpen by the Reds, the Halos gave Lorenzen a one-year, $6.75MM deal and let him try starting in 2022. It went reasonably well, as he made 18 starts and logged 97 2/3 innings with a 4.24 ERA.

He was able to parlay that into a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Tigers and pushed himself even farther in terms of workload and results. He had a 3.58 ERA in 105 2/3 innings with Detroit before getting flipped to the Phillies. He made two excellent starts for his new club, the latter being a no-hitter, but seemed to run out of gas after that. After completing his no-hitter, he was sitting on a 3.23 ERA through 122 2/3 innings on the year. He was lit up the rest of the way and finished the season with an ERA of 4.18, but it seems possible that was a result of him pushing his innings tally into new territory.

MLBTR predicted he could secure a two-year, $22MM deal this offseason. He remains unsigned and is arguably the best starter in free agency apart from Snell and Montgomery. Unless the Angels plan to make a pivot and open themselves up to the idea of a mega deal for a pitcher, Lorenzen would be their best path to solidifying the rotation. Other notable remaining free agent starters are Mike Clevinger, Hyun Jin Ryu, Eric Lauer, Noah Syndergaard, Rich Hill, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto.

Should Blake Snell Consider A Short-Term Deal?

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This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.

As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.

Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.

Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.

The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.

That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.

Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.

The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.

The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.

Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.

Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”

It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.

Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.

Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.

If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.

Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!

Which path should Blake Snell take?

  • Short-term, high AAV, opt-outs, etc. 54% (4,428)
  • Maximum total guarantee right now 46% (3,784)

Total votes: 8,212

Dombrowski Downplays Phillies’ Desire For Outfield Help

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The Phillies announced this morning that outfielder Brandon Marsh underwent arthroscopic surgery after feeling discomfort in his left knee. With a 3-4 week recovery timetable, he’s still expected to be ready for Opening Day. As a result, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski downplayed the chances of going outside the organization for outfield help.

“We still think we’re the same way we were beforehand, when it comes to Opening Day,” he told reporters this afternoon (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “[Free agent outfielders] want guarantees, and we’re just not able to give them those guarantees. … We talk to people all the time. The reality is that we don’t have guaranteed playing time that some people want. We just don’t have that. It’s not really even a dollar issue as it is playing time.”

Assuming Marsh’s recovery proceeds as expected, he’ll slot into left field on Opening Day. Defensive stalwart Johan Rojas is set to open the year in center field while Nick Castellanos mans the corner opposite Marsh. Cristian Pache and Jake Cave project as the top depth options.

Rojas has a limited MLB track record, having appeared in only 59 career games. Paired with Philadelphia’s willingness to spend and Dombrowski’s history of pursuing star talent, that has led to loose speculation about the Phils as a possible suitor for Cody Bellinger. The front office leader has said a few times he anticipates Rojas being the starting center fielder — a sentiment he repeated earlier this week — making a Bellinger pursuit unlikely. Zolecki reports that the Phils also don’t anticipate landing either of the top two starting pitchers still available, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, barring a significant change in their respective markets.

Dombrowski also shot down the notion the Phillies are on the verge of trading for bullpen help. Unsubstantiated reports have linked them to Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen and Guardians star Emmanuel Clase in recent days. While Dombrowski didn’t address either player specifically, he said the Phils generally “do not have any ongoing conversations for bullpen guys” (via Zolecki).

While that doesn’t rule out the possibility of the Phils jumping into the mix at some point, the veteran executive pointed out that there’s not a ton of room in the season-opening bullpen. Each of José Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman and Seranthony Domínguez is locked into the relief corps. The Phils have effusively praised Orion Kerkering, a 22-year-old who debuted late last season after striking out nearly 38% of opponents in the minor leagues.

If all six of those pitchers are on the Opening Day roster, the Phils would likely have two bullpen spots remaining. Dombrowski indicated one of those would go to a long reliever — quite likely out-of-options righty Dylan Covey. That leaves one job up for grabs (assuming the Phillies aren’t committed to carrying Connor Brogdon, who is also out of options). That opens the possibility for another acquisition, yet it’s not surprising Dombrowski said they’d only acquire a pitcher they consider a meaningful upgrade over their in-house candidates.

“It only leaves one other spot, and if you go get a veteran guy, he needs to be an upgrade. Because the reality is the only one there that can be optioned in that group is Kerkering. And we may not want to be optioning him,” he said. Perhaps the opportunity for a clear upgrade comes available or a Spring Training injury changes the calculus, but it doesn’t seem the Phils anticipate an imminent bullpen pickup.

Dombrowski On Phillies’ Offseason, Wheeler, Rojas, Painter

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski joined the 94 WIP Morning show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on Wednesday, touching on a broad-reaching number of Phillies topics (Audacy link to the entire 20-minute interview). It’s a good listen for fans of any club — Phils fans in particular, of course — wherein Philadelphia’s top decision-maker discusses his team’s relatively quiet offseason, the state of the rotation and the outfield, Zack Wheeler’s future with the club, top prospect Andrew Painter’s health and quite a bit more.

Among the more notable takeaways was Dombrowski’s reply when asked a potential late move for one of the remaining big-name starters on the board. Dombrowski didn’t comment on either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery by name but expressed that he’s content with the club’s rotation. As far back as early November, Dombrowski touted fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez as someone the team believes can be a big regular in the rotation, and his comments today mesh with that line of thinking. Dombrowski didn’t expressly rule out the addition of another starter but implied that the team wasn’t about to pay market rate for one of the remaining names out there.

“I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down,'” Dombrowski said. That suggests a willingness to remain open-minded to some late, unexpected drops in price but doesn’t sound like a portent for an aggressive pursuit of a top-tier free agent.

That said, there was at least one name the Phillies considered worthy of an exception: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s already been reported that the Phillies were a legitimate suitor for the 25-year-old NPB ace before he signed a record deal with the Dodgers, and Dombrowski now confirms that his team was “very involved” in Yamamoto’s market. The veteran baseball ops leader went so far as to say that others might be “shocked” to learn how much money the Phillies ultimately offered — naturally, he declined to specify — before indicating that Yamamoto simply had a preference to be a Dodger. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber reported last week that the Phils also made a 12-year offer, although it’s unclear if they were willing to match the $325MM guarantee which Yamamoto received from Los Angeles.

Obviously, any multi-year addition to the rotation could provide the Phillies with some insurance in the event that Wheeler departs as a free agent at season’s end. But Dombrowski called Wheeler “one of the best pitchers in baseball” and stressed that it’s “important” and a “priority” for the Phillies find a way to re-sign the right-hander.

Wheeler, 34 in May, has outperformed the five-year, $118MM contract he signed with the Phillies in the 2019-20 offseason. He’s garnered Cy Young consideration in three of his four Phillies seasons, highlighted by a second-place finish in 2021 and a sixth-place finish in 2023.

Over the past four seasons, he’s tied with Corbin Burnes for the fourth-most innings in Major League Baseball and leads MLB in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. He’s notched a tidy 3.06 ERA despite typically playing in front of one of the game’s weakest defenses, thanks in large part to a sharp 26.7% strikeout rate and excellent 5.3% walk rate. A new contract for Wheeler would begin with his age-35 season, which caps his earning potential to an extent, but recent history has shown teams are willing to pay elite arms even at the late stages of their careers.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights some recent examples of age-35 (or older) pitchers cashing in. Jacob deGrom signed a five-year deal with a $37MM annual value, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both inked multi-year deals at a $43.333MM AAV. The AAV on Yu Darvish’s extension, beginning in his age-37 season, is just $18MM — but that was a function of the Padres drawing out the term in order to drive down the annual salary for luxury-tax purposes. Darvish still secured a $90MM guarantee on that frontloaded deal and was two years older than Wheeler will be in year one of a theoretical free agent pact or extension. Suffice it to say, Wheeler will be the relatively rare big leaguer who has a chance at multiple nine-figure contracts in his career.

On the point of the team’s defense, Dombrowski cited that as a primary reason the team has not pursued additional outfield help with much aggression this spring. Young Johan Rojas dazzled with his defensive ratings (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +6 Outs Above Average) in just 392 innings of center field work. Asked if Rojas will be the team’s primary center fielder this season, Dombrowski all but anointed the 23-year-old.

“Likely? Yes,” Dombrowski replied. “Definitively? No. We saw enough the last couple months in August and September that we liked what we saw. I’ve talked to our hitting people at length about his progress over the winter time. He’s worked extremely hard. He’s made adjustments that he needs to make. I’m not saying he’s going to come up and hit .300 with 20 home runs off the bat, but I think he can do enough offensively and contribute from an offensive perspective. And when you add his speed and his defense, all of a sudden he becomes a real plus for us. So yes, I do think he’ll be up, but he has to earn that, too. We’re not just going to give it to him.”

Even as he made those caveats, Dombrowski also spoke of the team’s desire to get Kyle Schwarber more time at designated hitter and to keep Bryce Harper at first base as a means of improving the defense (as opposed to the alternative scenario where Schwarber plays left field and Rhys Hoskins were re-signed to split time between DH and first base). Rojas’ bat looked impressive during his brief regular-season look, as he hit .302/.342/.430 in 164 plate appearances, but that was buoyed by an unsustainable .410 average on balls in play. His bat went ice cold in the playoffs, too, as Rojas fell into a woeful 4-for-43 swoon and struck out in a third of his plate appearances.

Despite the postseason struggles, it appears Rojas will have first crack at the regular center field job. The Phillies are generally thin in terms of outfield depth, and this afternoon’s DFA of Simon Muzziotti could add to that if he’s traded or claimed by another club. There’s perhaps the chance that the Phils could add a bench bat to the mix, and outfield would be a natural spot, given the lackluster offensive contributions of Jake Cave and limited track record of Cristian Pache.

Dombrowski acknowledged the possibility of adding a bench bat, simply noting “that might end up happening,” but he didn’t characterize it as a major item that’s yet to be checked off the to-do list. Speaking in general terms, the Phillies’ president again implied that between wanting to give Rojas a real chance and the veteran nature of much of his roster, free agents have seen greater opportunity for playing time with other clubs thus far. There’s still quite a few names yet unsigned, so it stands to reason that the Phils could eventually find a bargain addition to deepen the mix. Pache, Cave and utility infielder Edmundo Sosa are all out of options, however, so adding a player to the bench mix would likely mean jettisoning someone like Cave, who’s already agreed to a $1MM salary for the 2024 season. That isn’t likely to be a major roadblock to any further additions, but it’ll factor into the calculus all the same.

The Phillies will effectively return the same bullpen in 2024, though again, Dombrowski indicated it’s not necessarily for lack of trying. He noted that the team has been in on at least “a couple” of notable names but that one, in particular, took an opportunity to be a starting pitcher elsewhere. Another simply preferred to be closer to his home on the west coast. Again, Dombrowski didn’t mention names, though Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez stand out as two bullpen arms who surprisingly landed rotation opportunities in free agency (Hicks in San Francisco, Lopez in Atlanta). Hicks, in particular, was rumored to be on the Phillies’ radar as a free agent.

Starting pitching depth, too, has been a recent area the Phillies have been searching. They signed former Braves first-rounder Kolby Allard to a split big league deal last month due in no small part to the fact that he has a minor league option remaining. That same line of thinking surely influenced today’s claim of righty Max Castillo from the Red Sox.

The Phillies have top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry working through the minor league system, and while both could make their debuts in 2024, neither has yet pitched even five innings above the Double-A level. Painter was a rotation candidate early last season but wound up going down with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Dombrowski said in this morning’s interview that Painter has begun “tossing” a ball recently and is on schedule but that the organization is “looking toward 2025” with regard to the prized righty and isn’t planning on him pitching in games this season. There’s always the possibility his recovery progresses more quickly than expected, but the 20-year-old right-hander doesn’t appear to be someone the Phillies are banking on for even a late-season cameo.

Giants’ Chairman On Zaidi, Offseason Plans

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Giants chairman Greg Johnson recently spoke to reporters, including Ron Kroichick of the San Francisco Chronicle, regarding the contract status of president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi as well as the club’s plans heading into the home stretch of the offseason.

On Zaidi, Johnson revealed that the extension the club announced back in October that would keep Zaidi in San Francisco through the 2026 season has not yet been finalized. That’s something of a surprise, given Johnson said at the time of the announcement that the deal had been “agreed [upon] in principle” and would be formally announced in the near future. That, of course, didn’t come to pass, though Johnson nonetheless noted that the extension is a “done deal.”

“It’s effectively done,” Johnson said (as relayed by Kroichick). “He probably has signed it; I’m probably the one who hasn’t because I haven’t been around enough. But we’re done.”

The extension for Zaidi, whose current deal runs through the end of the 2024 campaign, came as something of a surprise given the club’s inconsistency during his tenure in San Francisco. The Giants posted losing seasons in his first two campaigns with the club before mustering a phenomenal 107-win 2021 season that propelled the club to its first NL West title since 2012. Since that strong showing, however, the club has been marred by middling performances. The club finished the 2022 season with a .500 record before slipping back underwater in 2023 with a 79-83 season that resulted in the club swapping out Gabe Kapler in favor of Bob Melvin in the manager’s chair.

Beyond the comments on Zaidi’s contract status, Johnson also spoke about the club’s ability to make further additions to the roster via free agency after spending on outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, catcher Tom Murphy and right-hander Jordan Hicks earlier this winter while also picking up southpaw Robbie Ray in a trade with the Mariners last month. Johnson was quick to emphasize that the club still has the capacity to continue improving the club via free agency, noting that “there are a lot of good players out there” who the club remains “very interested in.”

While Johnson didn’t specify any particular targets, previous reporting has indicated that the Giants view third baseman Matt Chapman as their top target on the positional market. Chapman, 31 in April, would substantially improve the club’s defense as a four-time Gold Glove award winner at third base who leads all big leaguers with +92 Defensive Runs Saved at the hot corner since he first debuted back in 2017. Chapman would also provide the club a substantial boost in terms of power. While he veteran hit just 17 home runs last season, his .203 isolated slugging since the start of the 2020 season could nonetheless provide a dramatic boost to a Giants lineup that posted an anemic .149 ISO last year, good for just 23rd in the majors. Among all Giants with at least 100 plate appearances last season, only Wilmer Flores and Mike Yastrzemski posted an ISO of .200 or more.

By contrast, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle notes that comments from Zaidi in the wake of the Hicks signing last month indicated the club may not pursue further starting rotation additions. Johnson somewhat backed that notion up, with Shea quoting Johnson as having said that he thinks the club is “going to have to rely on some younger pitching” headed into the season with veterans Alex Cobb and Ray both expected to start the season on the shelf. Those signals from both the front office and ownership seemingly cast doubt on the likelihood of San Francisco making a splash at the top of the rotation market, where southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are the consensus best arms remaining.
If the Giants truly are unlikely to make a run at further rotation upgrades, it would be something of a surprise. After all, after trading away both Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling while watching Alex Wood and Sean Manaea depart via free agency, the Giants have seen their starting pitching depth take a major hit this winter. While both Cobb and Ray could provide reinforcements later in the season, the club currently figures to go with rookies Keaton Winn and Kyle Harrison, youngster Tristan Beck, and Hicks to round out the club’s rotation alongside Logan Webb.

Only Hicks debuted in the majors prior to the 2023 campaign among that quartet, and the righty has made just eight starts in the majors to this point in his career. Adding a reliable arm to the mix alongside Webb would give the club a significantly deeper and more stable rotation mix to open the season with while lessening the club’s need to rely on speedy returns from Cobb and Ray as they rehab from their respective surgeries. If the club doesn’t have the financial wherewithal to stomach a nine-figure commitment to Snell or Montgomery, a handful of decent mid-to-back of the rotation arms such as Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen also remain available.

The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers

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Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.

Top-of-the-Market Arms

  • Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
  • Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.

Solid Innings

  • Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
  • Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
  • Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.

Injury Cases

  • Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
  • Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.

Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.

Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.

Yankees Notes: Snell, Injuries, Judge

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Earlier this month, the Yankees reportedly made an offer to left-hander Blake Snell, the top remaining starting pitcher on the open market this winter. At the time, no deal got done due to what was reportedly a significant gap between the sides, which ultimately led GM Brian Cashman and his front office to pivot to a two-year deal for right-hander Marcus Stroman. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand provided an update on Snell’s free agency today, noting that while the Yankees offered Snell $150MM over six years, Snell is in search of either a longer deal or one with an annual salary of at least $30MM.

While that’s still a reasonably substantial gap, it provides more reason for optimism that the sides could come together on a deal later in the offseason than previous reporting that indicated the sides were nearly $100MM apart in negotiations. Feinsand goes on to note that while other teams have shown interest in the lefty this winter, the Yankees’ offer is only the one a team has formally put forward to Snell this winter. Feinsand goes on to indicate that it isn’t yet clear if the club remains in on Snell after adding Stroman, a possibility that echoes the club’s reported focus on bullpen additions at this point in the offseason.

Still, it’s easy to see why the club would have interest in adding Snell to its rotation. While the addition of Stroman raises the floor of the club’s rotation considerably, the club lacks a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with ace Gerrit Cole, thanks in large part to the question marks surrounding southpaws Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes after injury-marred 2023 campaigns. Adding Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner who has averaged 27 starts a season over the past three campaigns, would give the club another reliable arm with substantial upside. If the sides aren’t able to come together on a deal, the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays are among other suitors who could have interest in Snell’s services this winter.

More from the Bronx…

  • Cashman told reporters (including Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News) recently that veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo is currently cleared for full baseball activities and that doctors are not worried about symptoms of post-concussion syndrome returning in 2024, though he noted that dealing with injuries involving the brain is “tricky.” Rizzo played for over two months after sustaining a head injury in a collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. last May before being placed on the IL in early August. Rizzo slashed an impressive .304/.376/.505 in 53 games prior to the collision before slumping to a brutal .172/.271/.225 slash line in his final 46 games of the year. If the 34-year-old can come close to replicating his early season production in 2024, he’ll be a key fixture in the club’s lineup as the Yankees look to return to the playoffs after missing the postseason for the first time since 2016.
  • As relayed by Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, Cashman also discussed the health of veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton with reporters recently, noting the club’s DH is in a “really good place” following his injury-marred 2023 campaign where he slashed just .191/.275/.420 in 101 games. Cashman added that Stanton’s diet and conditioning work this offseason has helped him to prepare for a healthy return to action in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone seemed to echo those sentiments during a recent appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, noting that Stanton is preparing for “occasional” starts in the outfield during the upcoming campaign. While that’s nothing new for Stanton, who has started between 93 games on the outfield grass over the past three seasons, it’s nonetheless noteworthy that he’ll continue to receive those starts in the field even after the club bolstered its outfield mix with the additions of Alex Verdugo, Juan Soto, and Trent Grisham earlier this winter.
  • In his aforementioned appearance on the Foul Territory podcast, Boone also discussed Aaron Judge and his new role as the club’s regular center fielder headed into the 2024 season. The club’s manager expressed confidence in Judge’s ability to handle the everyday center field job as he heads into his age-32 season despite the hulking slugger’s lengthy injury history, though he did note that he hopes to rest Judge at DH or in left field “once or twice a week” with Grisham taking over duties in center. Assuming the club plans on starting Soto in an outfield corner everyday, that would leave just one spot in the club’s outfield/DH mix for Stanton and Verdugo on days where Grisham is covering for Judge in center. Sacrificing starts for the outfield’s other regulars figures to be a worthwhile gamble for the club to take as long as it helps Judge stay healthy, as the team’s captain has slashed an sensational .294/.417/.657 in 263 games over the past two seasons.
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