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Blake Snell

Angels, Mets Remain Engaged With J.D. Martinez

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Regular season baseball is just over the horizon but many free agents remain unsigned. Two of the most notable of those free agents are left-hander Blake Snell and designated hitter J.D. Martinez, both of whom are represented by the Boras Corporation. The Halos were connected to both of those players back in December and Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Halos are still talking about both of them. In a separate column, Heyman adds that the Mets also remain involved with Martinez, to whom they were connected last month.

It’s unclear if the Angels are making a serious push for a late signing or merely keeping tabs as the players linger on the open market into the middle of March, but they are one of the few clubs that make for a logical fit for a notable deal at this point. Many teams around the league have exhausted their respective budgets by this stage of the calendar, with some of them having concerns around luxury tax payments or uncertainty around TV revenue streams.

But the Angels are below their previous levels of spending, both in terms of pure payroll expenditures and competitive balance tax calculations. RosterResource currently lists their payroll at $174MM and their CBT number at $189MM for 2024. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Halos had an Opening Day payroll of $212MM last year, $38MM above where they are now. The base threshold of the CBT is $237MM this year, which gives the club $48MM of space if they want to stay below the tax, which is a line they hovered around last year.

Owner Arte Moreno has previously stated that the club is planning on operating with a lower payroll this year, but without specifics about exactly where they want to end up. Given the gaps between last year’s spending and this year’s, it’s possible to envision another signing coming together while still fulfilling his plan of reduced overall expenditures.

Many observers wondered if the club would look to mount a rebuild in the post-Shohei Ohtani era, but general manager Perry Minasian firmly stated at the start of the offseason that the club would not be doing that and was actually planning an aggressive offseason.

Thus far, the club has directed most of its efforts to the bullpen, signing Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García, Adam Cimber and José Cisnero. On the position player side, their most notable addition was signing Aaron Hicks, who they will only have to pay the league minimum since the Yankees are still on the hook for his contract. Their most significant rotation addition was a $1MM signing of Zach Plesac, who has already been optioned to the minors.

Adding Martinez would be a clear upgrade to the club’s lineup, as he has a long track record of effective hitting and is coming off a 33-home run campaign with the Dodgers. The roster fit is a little awkward since Martinez is primarily a DH at this point, having only played 12 innings in the field over the last two years combined. The Angels technically have an open DH spot with Ohtani’s departure but may want to use that for their various aging or injury-prone players. Both Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout are the club’s two highest-paid players and each has missed significant time in the past few years as they have pushed into their 30s. Giving them occasional DH time and keeping them fresh might be preferable to locking up the DH spot with Martinez. Similar logic could apply to other players in their 30s like Brandon Drury or Hicks.

Previous reporting has suggested that Martinez turned down an offer of $14MM from the Giants while looking for either a two-year deal, a salary near $20MM or both. The Angels could accommodate that without reaching last year’s spending levels, though they would have to weigh the benefits of adding his bat to the lineup against the reduced ability to rest their other players, as well as the financial cost.

Snell would certainly cost more but it’s much easier to imagine him fitting onto the roster. The Halos have a rotation of Reid Detmers, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth. Everyone in that group can still be optioned apart from Anderson, while Silseth has just 81 major league innings under his belt. At this late stage in the offseason, Snell would likely have to miss the opening of the schedule anyway and injuries may have popped up by the time he’s fully stretched out. Even if he can’t be expected to repeat last year’s Cy Young-winning season that finished with a 2.25 ERA, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league and would upgrade any rotation.

The lefty reportedly turned down an offer of $150MM over six years from the Yankees, average annual value of $25MM, with Snell looking for either a salary in the $30MM range or a longer pact. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Anderson’s three-year, $39MM is the largest the Angels have given to a starting pitcher since 2012, both in terms of years and guaranteed dollars.

Despite that apparent distaste to giving lengthy free agent pacts to pitchers, it’s possible to imagine the two sides coming together. Snell is reportedly open to a shorter pact with higher AAVs and opt-outs, similar to those signed by fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. That type of deal is difficult for a club that has already spent a huge chunk of its budget or has tax bills to think about. The Yankees, for instance, would have to pay $33MM in taxes in order to give Snell a contract with a $30MM AAV this year. As mentioned above, the Halos have plenty of spending capacity before they even reach last year’s payroll or come close to the CBT line. Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so signing him would also cost the Angels their second-highest pick in this summer’s draft as well as $500K of their international bonus pool.

Until a deal comes together, the rotation will project to be that fivesome of Detmers, Sandoval, Anderson, Canning and Silseth. The club has been stretching out some other guys, such as Andrew Wantz and José Soriano, but they are apparently behind the front five. Manager Ron Washington tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register that Wantz and Soriano will stay stretched out for now but won’t earn a rotation spot unless there’s an injury to one of the other five guys.

As for the Mets, they have been connected to Martinez previously, but with the caveat that they were leaning towards giving at-bats to younger players like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos. Those two could split the third base job and the DH slot, with Joey Wendle perhaps filling in at third on defense from time to time while DJ Stewart could perhaps take some plate appearances as the DH.

Both of Baty and Vientos are optionable and could therefore be sent to the minors, but it makes sense that the Mets would want to give them some run at the big league level. Vientos has hit just .205/.255 /.354 in the majors but has slashed .290/.369/.554 at Triple-A over the last two years. Similarly, Baty has hit .210/.272/.325 in the big leagues but .311/.405/.554 in the minors over the past two years.

Since neither of them have much left to prove on the farm and the Mets are planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, there’s logic to letting them face big league pitchers to see if either takes a step forward. Signing Martinez would also come with a hefty financial cost, as the Mets are set to be third-time payors of the CBT and are above the fourth tier of penalization. That means they face a 110% tax on any money they add to their books. Giving Martinez $15MM for this year, just as an example, would also involve paying $16.5MM in taxes and a total expense of $31.5MM.

If the club is willing to consider such an expenditure, it would lengthen the lineup as they walk a tightrope in 2024. They mostly limited themselves to one-year deals this offseason as they look to field a competitive team but without sacrificing too much of their future flexibility. Signing Martinez could lengthen their lineup here in 2024 but would also come with the opportunity cost of having less playing time for guys like Baty and Vientos, as well as the aforementioned financial elements.

In addition to the Angels, Snell has continued to garner interest from other clubs, with the Giants connected to him earlier this month. The Yankees may revisit their talks with Snell if they get bad news regarding Gerrit Cole’s MRI, though recent reporting has suggested they may be more likely to trade for Dylan Cease due to his lower salary and tax hit. Martinez was recently connected to the Marlins, in addition to the talks with the Mets and Angels.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Cole, Rotation

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Yankees star Aaron Judge has been slowed a bit by some abdominal discomfort recently, with manager Aaron Boone telling reporters yesterday that the 2022 AL MVP is “mid-spring banged up” while downplaying concerns of a more serious injury. Judge revealed this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal region yesterday to ascertain that there was no significant injury at play (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). That imaging came back clean. Judge says he won’t swing a bat until later this week but is hopeful he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup.

On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.

“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”

Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.

The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.

In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.

The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.

Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.

Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.

AL West Notes: Snell, Angels, Jung, Pollock, Verlander, Astros

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In a recent edition of the Willard and Dibs podcast, ESPN’s Buster Olney predicted Blake Snell will sign with the Angels, based on “conversations with people…who know Blake” and Snell’s apparent enjoyment of pitching in southern California.  Olney added the natural “depending on where the money falls” caveat, and things could also change depending on how the pitching market might yet play out, in regards to injuries suddenly changing the outlook for a would-be contender.  Agent Scott Boras said this week that he’d been hearing from some new suitors in regards to Snell and Jordan Montgomery since Spring Training opened, though both pitchers remain unsigned as we’re now into the second week of March.

The Angels were linked to Snell back in December, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writing at the time that Snell was “their priority” as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace Shohei Ohtani.  There hasn’t been much public movement between the two sides since, though the Halos also haven’t done anything else to upgrade their rotation, as their offseason pitching moves have been largely focused on bullpen additions.  The Angels have traditionally been reluctant to sign pitchers to big multi-year commitments, though since Snell is reportedly open to taking a shorter-term contract (likely with at least one opt-out clause), this could help find common ground towards a landing spot in Anaheim.

Other items from around the AL West…

  • It has been about three weeks since Josh Jung was shut down due to calf soreness, and the Rangers aren’t yet ready to him “ratchet up his running program,” according to Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link).  Another MRI on Jung indicated some improvement with his calf, but the team is still being cautious, which is understandable given Jung’s important role as the starting third baseman.  Jung has already made his mark with a big rookie season that included an All-Star nod and a World Series ring, with Jung hitting .308/.329/.538 slash line in 70 postseason plate appearances.  It seems possible that Jung might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list if he misses much more Spring Training time, though the injury doesn’t appear to be overly serious.
  • AJ Pollock is at the Mariners’ spring camp in something of an unofficial coaching mentorship role, Shannon Drayer of MyNorthwest.com writes.  MLB Trade Rumors has learned that Pollock is still exploring his playing options and hasn’t officially retired, though since the longtime outfielder just turned 36, it isn’t a surprise that he might be exploring what’s next once he does decide to hang up the cleats.  Pollock played in 49 games for Seattle last season before being traded to the Giants at the deadline, and hit only .165/.215/.308 in 144 total plate appearances.  Pollock has an .892 OPS over 422 PA just as recently as the 2021 season, though he had a subpar year with the White Sox in 2022 before his bigger performance dropoff last year.
  • Justin Verlander told MLB.com and other reporters that he threw around 60 pitches during a bullpen session on Friday, and is up to lower-90s velocity on his fastball.  It seems like another positive step for Verlander as he continues to ramp up after a minor shoulder problem delayed his start to Spring Training.  The Astros have already announced that Verlander will begin the season on the 15-day IL, though that placement is just to give him more time to get ready, rather than any true concern over his health.
  • Since both Verlander and J.P. France have been slowed by shoulder issues, the Astros rotation is a bit of a question mark as Opening Day approaches.  While the team gauges what arms might fill in for Verlander or France on a temporary basis, The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that Houston will be in particular need of starters due to a busy early schedule.  The Astros play 20 games in the first 21 days of the season, and Rome feels the club could even go with a six-man rotation in April to keep everyone as fresh as possible.  That would open the door for Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak to both make the rotation if France also needs some IL time, or one of Blanco/Bielak could work as a long reliever.

Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

Cardinals Have Not Recently Inquired On Snell, Montgomery

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With top left-handers Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still unsigned into March, agent Scott Boras declared today that four new teams had checked in regarding those pitchers since the opening of spring camps. It doesn’t seem the Cardinals are among that group. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that, as of this afternoon, the Cards had not recently reached out to Boras about Snell or Montgomery.

That’s not a surprise, particularly as it pertains to Snell. St. Louis hasn’t been substantively tied to the defending NL Cy Young winner at any point. They’d left the door ajar to bringing Montgomery back at the time they traded him to the Rangers, but that possibility seemed more or less closed with the front office’s activity early in the offseason. The Cardinals added Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75MM pact as their big rotation pickup. They brought in Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson as hopefully stable sources of innings at the back end.

Gray’s tenure in Cardinal red has started somewhat shakily. The three-time All-Star was removed from his Spring Training appearance today with right hamstring tightness. Gray declined comment pending the results of an MRI; the team is expected to provide more information tomorrow.

While Gray’s status could theoretically spur the Cardinals to seek out additional pitching depth, that won’t be known until the team gets clarity as to whether he’s still on track to be ready for Opening Day. Even if he does need to spend time on the IL, a push for Montgomery or Snell would be a surprise.

St. Louis has roughly $185MM on the books for the upcoming season, according to RosterResource. That’ll be a franchise high for Opening Day, approximately $8MM above last year’s team-record figure. Their competitive balance tax number is around $215MM. Signing either pitcher, especially Snell, would push them near or beyond the $237MM luxury tax threshold. The cost for narrowly exceeding the threshold for the first time isn’t all that significant — a 20% hit on spending between $237MM and $257MM — but Goold notes that team officials have suggested they have no desire to push into tax territory.

If Gray remains on track for Opening Day, he’ll front a rotation also including Gibson, Lynn, Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz. Should anyone from that group miss time, young southpaws Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson are probably next on the depth chart. Drew Rom made his MLB debut late last year but was tagged for an 8.02 ERA over eight starts. Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein are also on the 40-man roster and have yet to reach the big leagues.

That’s a questionable group of depth starters for a team expecting to compete in the NL Central. Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen headline the crop of unsigned starters beyond Snell and Montgomery. If the asking price for that duo is beyond the Cardinals’ liking, players like Zack Greinke, Eric Lauer and Noah Syndergaard wouldn’t command more than a few million dollars if they’re able to find a major league offer of any kind.

Phillies Reportedly Have Not “Seriously Discussed” Blake Snell

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The Phillies hammered out their second recent nine-figure pitching investment this morning. Philadelphia’s three-year, $126MM extension with Zack Wheeler follows their $172MM guarantee over seven seasons to retain Aaron Nola in free agency. There’s been chatter about the possibility of adding the defending NL Cy Young winner to form an elite trio, but that has always seemed like a stretch — even for a franchise that spends as aggressively on star talent as the Phillies do.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend that the Phils had interest in Snell if he takes a short-term contract. However, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported differently this afternoon. According to Gelb, the Phillies have not “seriously discussed” a pursuit of Snell, regardless of the contract length required.

Snell declined a qualifying offer from the Padres at the beginning of the offseason. Gelb suggests the Phils weren’t interested in signing a player who rejected a QO, which would require them to forfeit their second and fifth picks in the 2024 draft and $1MM in bonus pool space for international amateurs. Philadelphia did relinquish their right to a compensatory pick by re-signing Nola, though that would have been only one draft choice that fell after the fourth round. (Snell is the only of the seven players who declined the QO who remains unsigned.)

Even independent of the draft compensation, the Phillies haven’t seemed a great fit for Snell since they retained Nola. Philadelphia has $246MM in player commitments for the upcoming season, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s a little north of last year’s $243MM franchise-record Opening Day mark. The Phils have nearly $262MM in competitive balance tax commitments. They’re going to exceed the CBT for a third consecutive season, leading to higher penalties as a three-time payor.

Philadelphia is already set to pay roughly $13MM in luxury taxes. Further additions either during the offseason or around the deadline will add to that mark. The Phils would pay a 62% tax on their approximate next $15MM in spending. That’d be followed by a 95% charge on the following $20MM and a 110% tax on any money thereafter.

A short-term contract for Snell would assuredly come with a lofty average salary, heightening the CBT commitments. A $35MM annual value, as a hypothetical, would add around $28MM to Philadelphia’s tax bill on top of the money going to Snell. It would also vault the Phils past the $277MM line that marks the third tier of CBT penalization, pushing their top pick in the 2025 draft back 10 spots in the process. A longer-term commitment could soften the CBT hit but would add another extended pitching investment to the Nola, Wheeler and Taijuan Walker contracts — which all run through 2026 or later.

Every team would benefit from installing Snell into their rotation in the short term. The Phillies have a strong starting five already, though. Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suárez, Walker and Cristopher Sánchez is a good group. Philadelphia took a flier on Spencer Turnbull as a long man/sixth starter and added Kolby Allard and Max Castillo as further rotation depth. Prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry are higher ceiling options who could make their respective big league debuts in 2024. Andrew Painter is likely to miss all of this season recovering from Tommy John surgery, yet he should be a factor in the ’25 starting staff.

Boras: New Teams Have Reached Out On Snell, Montgomery Since Spring Training Began

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Both Blake Snell (Giants, Yankees) and Jordan Montgomery (Red Sox) have had their teams to which they’ve been frequently connected throughout the offseason, but the opening of spring training has brought about some new suitors — at least… according to their agent. Scott Boras tells USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that four clubs who hadn’t been active suitors for Snell and Montgomery have checked in on the pair of lefties since camps opened in mid-February (X link).

On the one hand, it’s a wholly unsurprising comment. Both pitchers remain unsigned with seemingly limited markets — at least, insofar as who could offer them the of long-term deal or (in Snell’s case), short-term, opt-out laden, high-AAV deal they’re reported to be seeking. As such, it’s only natural their representative would work to dispel the notion that there are few viable landing spots.

On the other, there’s also surely at least some truth to the statement. Spring training annually brings about pitcher injuries of note. Already, we’ve seen Orioles starter Kyle Bradish diagnosed with a UCL sprain that will impact his availability for the regular season and could portend a long-term absence, depending how he progresses after receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. Mets righty Kodai Senga has been diagnosed with a capsule strain in his shoulder and is expected to open the year on the injured list. The Astros announced some early shoulder concern for Justin Verlander and J.P. France, though both righties have progressed well since. The Giants will be without fifth starter Tristan Beck for quite some time as he undergoes surgery to treat an aneurysm in his shoulder.

The shifting of contract goals for the pair of lefties is sure to bring about new interest as well. Several reports over the past week have indicated that Snell is increasingly amenable to a short-term deal with a high annual value and multiple opt-out opportunities. Fellow Boras clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman signed similar deals. Montgomery, by most accounts, is still looking for a long-term arrangement, but it’s only natural for teams to check the extent to which (if any) his ask on a long-term pact might have fallen. It also bears mentioning, of course, that a team reaching out to inquire on where things stand with a player’s market is far from the same as expressing legitimate interest in meeting what’s sure to be an enormous asking price on either left-hander.

The further the potential length of a contract drops, the more additional suitors could join the fray. The Twins’ original signing of Carlos Correa, for example, only came about after it became clear he’d be open to a three-year deal with multiple opt-outs. Reports all offseason suggested the Cubs were reluctant to go too long-term on Bellinger, but he wound up back at Wrigley Field once he pivoted to the short-term route. Any lower-payroll club with a win-now mindset and ample payroll space in the short-term could perhaps convince itself to stretch beyond comfort levels in 2024 if it means signing a player who’d be wholly out of their price range under more conventional market conditions.

Suffice it to say, there’s ample reason to take Boras’ comments with a hefty grain of salt — but it’s also surely true that circumstances surrounding the rotation mix of several clubs have changed. Whether that leads to any new offers remains to be seen. Even with Bradish ailing, for instance, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that he’d be “floored” if the Orioles pursued a short-term opt-out-laden deal with Montgomery and adds that any high-profile free agent addition remains very unlikely in Baltimore.

Phillies Interested In Blake Snell On Short-Term Contract

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The Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola early in the offseason, made a big push to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and a chance still remains that they could make one more splash in the free agent pitching market.  According to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Philadelphia would be open to bringing Blake Snell into the fold, but not on a long-term deal.  A one-year pact or a shorter-term contract would be the Phils’ preference, or quite possibly the kind of three-year deal with multiple opt-outs recently signed by other Boras Corporation clients Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman.

The news isn’t surprising in the sense that plenty of teams would similarly love to have Snell on these terms, though the Phillies’ interest in Snell was described by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark back in November as “lukewarm.”  In Stark’s view, the Phils saw Snell as a fallback plan if they couldn’t add their higher-priority targets (i.e. Nola or Yamamoto).  There is also the fact that the Phillies already have a set rotation on paper, with Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez combining to form a very solid starting five.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has spoken multiple times this offseason about how much he likes his rotation options, and about how the Phils’ other forays into the starting pitching market were focused on depth additions.  That said, Dombrowski also noted last month that “I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down.’ ”  It seems possible that Snell’s seemingly limited market might now represent such a possibility for the Phillies to get involved.

Snell’s reported willingness to consider shorter-term offers could mean that a five- or six-year contract simply might not be on the table at this late date in the offseason.  Even back in mid-February, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald wondered if Snell would be better off aiming for a very high average annual value within a short-term deal, so the left-hander could then potentially opt out next winter when the market is more favorable and more teams might be willing to spend.  The Yankees, Giants, and Angels have all been linked to Snell’s market, and that list probably widens considerably should the reigning NL Cy Young winner start focusing on just short-term contracts with opt-outs attached.

Philadelphia is undoubtedly in win-now mode, and both Dombrowski and team chairman John Middleton have a history of making aggressive moves in search of a World Series crown.  Signing Snell and moving to either some kind of six-man rotation or in making Sanchez something of an over-qualified swingman would improve what is already a good rotation, and no postseason opponent would want to face the trio of Snell, Wheeler, and Nola within a short series.

Even as a short-term signing, however, Snell has its drawbacks for the Phillies.  The club would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool funds and its second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 draft, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer and because Philadelphia was a luxury-tax payor in 2023.  In fact, the Phils have crossed the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in each of the last two years and are poised to make it a trifecta in 2024, with a projected CBT number of $261MM (as per RosterResource).

This figure is already over the second-highest penalty threshold of $257MM, and adding Snell would surely put Philadelphia over the third tier of $277MM.  Teams who cross that third tier face the further penalty of a ten-slot drop for their first selection in the following season’s draft, as well as even steeper financial costs.  As a three-time tax payor, the Phillies would be taxed at a 95% rate for every dollar spent above the $277MM mark.

For a one-year splurge on Snell, Middleton might deem the CBT costs as worth it if the left-hander is a final piece who can nab the Phillies that elusive championship.  But the risk is obvious, as if Snell struggles in 2024 or gets injured, suddenly what might’ve looked like a one-year deal with Snell opting out now looks more like a fuller commitment or two or three years, and a further strain on the Phillies’ books.  This might not be ideal for a team that has been prioritizing an extension with Wheeler, and most of the Phils’ most prominent players are signed through at least 2025.

Giants Still Interested In Blake Snell

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The Giants made another major addition yesterday with the signing of Matt Chapman, and might not yet be done with their March shopping.  Both Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle and Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area report that Blake Snell remains a target for the club, as the Giants continue to have a pressing need in the rotation.

Chapman’s deal contains two opt-out clauses, but in its full form is a three-year, $54MM guarantee.  That puts San Francisco’s payroll at just over $183MM (as per RosterResource’s projections) and, more importantly, its luxury tax figure at roughly $230.5MM — only slightly below the $237MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Even if Snell were to also accept a shorter-term contract laden with opt-outs, his salary would obviously send the Giants sailing over that first tax tier and closer to the secondary tier of $257MM.

The Giants haven’t exceeded the CBT line since 2017, yet given the team’s high-profile bids for star free agents (i.e. Carlos Correa, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto) in recent years, the tax threshold is hardly viewed as a barrier to spending.  If Snell and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are open to a shorter-term deal deal akin to Chapman’s, the idea that San Francisco could sign both players for perhaps something close to the total number projected for just one of the duo at the start of the offseason would count as a valuable bargain, and seemingly well worth what might be a temporary tax hit.  Michael Conforto’s contract is off the books after next season, Chapman could opt out, and Snell could opt out as well in this scenario.

Signing Snell would come at an additional cost to the Giants than just money, since both Snell and Chapman rejected qualifying offers.  Signing Chapman cost San Francisco its second-highest pick (the 51st overall selection) in the 2024 draft as well as $500K in international signing pool money, and signing Snell would cost the Giants another $500K from their pool, plus their third-highest pick in the upcoming draft.  While every draft pick is valued, giving up a second pick might again be seen as an acceptable loss for the Giants if it means landing Snell, either at a relative discount price or simply because the team is sorely in need of pitching help.

The rotation appeared to be a priority heading into the offseason, yet the Giants addressed the situation in a somewhat uncertain fashion by signing Jordan Hicks and acquiring Robbie Ray from the Mariners.  Hicks has worked primarily as a reliever over his Major League career, and Ray will be out until around midseason as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery.  Since Alex Cobb will be sidelined until May at the earliest due to his own recovery from hip surgery, the Giants were seemingly prepared to roll with a rotation of ace Logan Webb, Hicks, and a group of rookies headlined by star prospect Kyle Harrison until Cobb and Ray were ready to return.

However, those plans took a hit with yesterday’s news that Tristan Beck will be undergoing surgery to correct an aneurysm in his upper right arm.  Keaton Winn looks to be on track for Opening Day after a bout of nerve-related elbow discomfort, but these injuries have only highlighted the unsteady nature of San Francisco’s pitching plans.  An argument can clearly be made that adding another starter would greatly help the situation, whether more of a stopgap veteran like Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger, or a front-of-the-rotation type like Jordan Montgomery or Snell.

Even though Snell won his second career Cy Young Award in 2023, questions have persisted about Snell’s viability as a long-term investment.  He has averaged just over 124 innings per season during his eight years in the big leagues, and he has pitched into the eighth inning in only five of his 191 career starts.  Snell has also been prone to giving up a lot of hard contact at times, and his walk rates have been decidedly below average for his entire career.

This doesn’t seem to be the profile that would match Farhan Zaidi’s preferred model for pitching contracts, as the Giants president of baseball operations has long been hesitant about signing pitchers to particularly lengthy commitments.  A shorter-term deal with opt-outs might solve that issue, and Snell is reportedly open to considering such offers, though it remains to be seen if there might still be enough late interest for the left-hander to score a more lucrative deal.  The Yankees and Angels have been linked to Snell’s market, and other suitors could potentially emerge if another injury situation develops during Spring Training.

Yankees Notes: Hernández, Snell, Schmidt

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Utility player Enrique Hernández signed with the Dodgers earlier this week after having reported interest from clubs such as the Giants, Angels, Twins, and Padres. Hernández spoke to Foul Territory about his free agency (video link via X), adding that the Tigers were also interested but that it came down to the Dodgers and Yankees at the end.

The interest from the Tigers was not previously reported, but it seems fair to assume it came before they signed another utility infielder, Gio Urshela. That the Yankees were at the table is not something that was previously reported and would seem to suggest they are open to adding another utility player to their roster.

There are a few different ways Hernández could have been useful off the bench for the Yankees. The club is set to have veterans DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo at the infield corners, both of whom are now in the mid-30s and struggled with injuries last year. He could have given them some extra cover at those spots while also perhaps getting into the outfield mix in a platoon capacity, pairing with lefty Alex Verdugo.

Hernández hits from the right side and has a career slash of .257/.343/.458 against southpaws, good enough for a 115 wRC+, compared to a line of .228/.290/.377 and 80 wRC+ against righties. Verdugo’s career splits are .290/.346/.461 and 115 wRC+ against righties but .259/.315/.350 and 80 wRC+ versus lefties. Left-hander Trent Grisham is also in the mix but he has reverse splits.

The Yankees project to have a bench of Jose Trevino, Oswaldo Cabrera and Grisham in three spots. That leaves one spot open, which could go to Oswald Peraza, but he has an option and is probably better served getting regular reps in the minors as opposed to sitting on the big league bench.

The club’s interest in Hernández suggests they could sign a veteran to plug into their bench, though there aren’t many proven infield/outfield types unsigned. Donovan Solano hasn’t played the outfield since 2012 while guys like Elvis Andrus or Jonathan Schoop never have. Free agent outfielders like Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall or Michael A. Taylor can’t help on the infield. The Yanks just claimed Jahmai Jones off waivers, who has experience on the dirt and the grass and is out of options, so perhaps they will just turn to him or some other claimee to fill out their bench.

Elsewhere in Yankee tidbits, the club continues to be tied to Blake Snell as the lefty lingers on the market. Recent reporting has suggested Snell may follow Cody Bellinger in pivoting to a short-term deal with opt-outs and high average annual values, though this wouldn’t work well for a club like the Yankees. They are already over the fourth and final tier of the competitive balance tax and face a 110% tax on any additional spending. RosterResource puts their CBT number at $307MM, already $10MM over the $297MM top line.

Hypothetically, if Snell wanted the same $30MM salary as Bellinger this year, the Yankees would also have to pay $33MM in taxes to give it to him. Snell also rejected a qualifying offer, so the Yankees would have to surrender their second- and fifth-highest picks in the upcoming draft and $1MM of international bonus pool space to sign him. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic looked at the situation today and reported that it remains unlikely the two sides will get something done for those exact reasons.

As long as the Yankees don’t sign Snell or any other pitcher, then Clarke Schmidt projects as the number five behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes. Kuty spoke to manager Aaron Boone about Schmidt, with the skipper highlighting the strong finish to his season. “He never lost confidence,” Boone said. “He never lost focus. Then he put together a really strong 4 1/2 or five months — after Gerrit, he was the guy we could kind of hang our hat on. Hopefully there’s another step in that.”

In his ninth start of the season, Schmidt allowed seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Rays and had a 6.30 earned run average at that point. But he put up a 4.08 ERA the rest of the way, allowing him to finish at 4.64 for the season overall. The Yanks will be hoping the 28-year-old can take another step forward here in 2024, as they traded away much of their rotation depth in the deal that brought over Grisham and Juan Soto.

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