Perrotto’s Latest: GMs, Angels, Offseason Moves
John Perrotto at Baseball Prospectus has his Every Given Sunday column up, let’s take a look at what he has to say:
- Perrotto believes that there’s a good chance that the only GM change baseball will see this offseason may be the one we already know about, as Pat Gillick has already announced his retirement. Perrotto cites Assitant GM Ruben Amaro Jr. as a likely replacement. The most likely other change is in Seattle, and cites Dodgers’ Assistant GM Kim Ng as a possible replacement, which would make her the first female general manager in the game’s history. Perrotto believes Cashman and the Yankees will work something out, though notes that if Cashman leaves, he will ascend to the top of both the Mariners’ and Phillies’ lists.
- Angels’ owner Arte Moreno says that the 2009 club will not exceed the current $123MM payroll. This leaves the Angels with hard decisions on Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, Garrett Anderson, Juan Rivera, and Jon Garland. Of all those options, I see Teixeira as the top priority, as well as the most likely to return. Garland and Rivera seem like certainties to be gone, with Garland being one of the more appealing starters on the free agent market.
- The Robinson Cano trade rumors continue, as Perrotto expects the Yankees to make a run at Orlando Hudson. Giving up on Cano seems like a mistake to me, but he certainly hasn’t lived up to the expectations he set when he nearly won a batting title in 2006. The Yankees are also not likely to re-sign Jason Giambi or Bobby Abreu.
- The Tigers feel they have a good chance at re-signing Freddy Garcia for 2009. Garcia could potentially be a nice rebound candidate in a rotation that desperately needs help. Perrotto mentions that Detroit has considered Derek Lowe as a possibility, but I don’t see how that could work with the Tigers trying to cut payroll at the same time. One thing seems certain: Kenny Rogers will not be pitching for Detroit in 2009.
- The White Sox have removed the nameplate from Joe Crede’s locker. Doesn’t seem like he’ll be back in 2009, not that that’s necessarily a new revelation.
- The Royals/Jeff Francouer rumors continue in Perrotto’s column. It’s been written all over the site, but doesn’t it seem like the Royals should actually be pursuing people who have a career OBP that isn’t lower than several good hitters’ career average?
- The Giants are willing to trade Matt Cain for a solid power hitter in return. Again, I think keeping a rotation headed by Cain and Tim Lincecum for the next few years is a far better option than trading Cain.
- The Pirates have said that the only guarantee for their rotation next season is Paul Maholm. It’s been a rough season for Ian Snell, but I don’t see why he wouldn’t be guaranteed a spot as well, unless they’re not positive he’ll still be with the club.
- The Mariners will likely non-tender Erik Bedard, completing the downward spiral on what has been one of the worst trades in recent history. Bedard will have shoulder surgery and likely miss a good portion of 2009.
- Speaking of disappointing moves: Both Greg Maddux and Kosuke Fukudome are in danger of being left off their respective teams’ postseason rosters.
Yanks To Let Abreu, Giambi Leave?
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post:
The general consensus appears that free agents Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi will be allowed to leave and that fits a logic: The Yanks are trying to get younger, trying to thin the herd of aging corner outfield/first base/DH types and trying to reduce the payroll where possible.
The Yanks would save more than $25MM by letting the pair leave. But as Sherman notes, they’d lose a couple of their top OBP guys. They’d also face a weak free agent market for first basemen, aside from Mark Teixeira. In the outfield, Xavier Nady could take over in right. Interesting note from Ken Davidoff – he says Giambi’s legacy to the Yankees may be his generosity toward the support staff.
Beyond Teixeira, the Yankees could attempt to trade for Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, or Adam LaRoche. As far as team control, Howard and Fielder have three years, LaRoche one. It’s tough to see the Phillies or Brewers making a deal without Phil Hughes. A couple of other possible trade candidates include Garrett Atkins, Lyle Overbay, Nick Johnson, and Todd Helton.
Sherman’s Latest: Yankees’ Off-Season Plans
Earlier this week Hank Steinbrenner promised changes this off-season for the Yankees. Today Joel Sherman of the New York Post speculates on what those changes could look like…
- Sources tell Sherman that Steinbrenner wants to make CC Sabathia the highest paid pitcher ever.
- Sherman thinks Shane Victorino would be a nice fit for the Yankees in center field.
- Some Yankees officials are toying with the idea of trading some of their young pitching if the Yankees do land Sabathia and another veteran such as AJ Burnett. Sherman thinks a player like Phil Hughes could be used to land a young center fielder or first baseman such as Joey Votto of the Reds.
- Sherman feels giving Mark Teixeira a 10-year deal would be a mistake.
- Sherman also wonders if Robinson Cano should be dangled this off-season in an attempt to land a starting pitcher like Zach Greinke, Chad Billingsley or Matt Cain.
- Sherman thinks the Yankees should offer Bobby Abreu arbitration in hopes of landing two draft picks, and says if Abreu accepts the arbitration it would not be a terrible thing, but would force somebody else to be moved.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Will Yanks Make Any Trades?
Joel Sherman of the New York Post discusses the Yankees’ trade prospects in a blog post today. The Yankees have a 3-5% chance of making the playoffs this year, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Sherman suggests Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Carl Pavano as players with a slight chance of being dealt. No-trade clauses would present an obstacle for most of these players, however.
As Sherman notes, Abreu is locked in as a Type A free agent. For the Yankees to receive draft picks for him this winter, they’d have to offer him arbitration and have him decline and sign elsewhere. Many Yankees fans made a strong case to me yesterday that the team will offer arbitration, because another year of Abreu at $16MM+ would be an acceptable risk. It’s a good point, since Abreu is having a better season than he did in ’07.
A pitching-starved team could take on Pavano if he approves it, but he is still owed over $4MM. The Yanks would have to assume pretty much all of that.
Looking At The Yankees’ Impending Free Agents
The Yankees have several big-name free agents looming this off-season, including Bobby Abreu, Andy Pettite, Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Mussina, and Jason Giambi ($5MM buyout for his $22MM option). Deciding who to bring back, who to let walk and who to offer arbitration could be the key decisions that have a ripple effect throughout the rest of baseball.
Tyler Kepner says the Yankees have already decided to not bring back Abreu and Giambi at their current salaries, $16MM and $21MM respectively. However Kepler says the Yankees may be open to bringing Abreu back at a reduced rate, especially without any obvious replacements in the farm system.
Peter Abraham thinks Pudge and Giambi would accept arbitration if it is offered by the Yankees. Now that Pudge is only a type-B free agent the Yankees may not think the one compensation pick is worth the risk.
So let’s hear it in the comments…Who should the Yankees bring back this off-season and do they risk offering arbitration to Pudge and Giambi?
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com and can be reached here.
Week In Review: 8/3 – 8/9
Here’s a quick look back at some of the bigger stories on MLBTR over the past week:
- D’Backs ace Dan Haren signed a very affordable extension with the team, which would keep him in Arizona through 2012 with an option for 2013. Great deal for the D’Backs and their fans.
- Brian Giles was claimed off waivers by the Red Sox, which is now believed to have been an effort to block the Rays from acquiring him. Giles blocked the trade to Boston with his no-trade clause.
- The Rockies acquired Livan Hernandez from the Twins. Minnesota won’t receive a player in return, but unloads Hernandez’s remaining $1.5MM on his contract, as well as his 5.48 ERA. Seems fine to me.
- Fifteen teams watched a throwing session from Freddy Garcia. Here are a few reactions.
- Relievers on the move: The Cubs DFA’ed Scott Eyre, and traded him to the Phillies the next day. The Rays acquired Chad Bradford from the Orioles, and DFA’ed Al Reyes in order to make room for him. In a rare inter-division trade, the Royals traded Horacio Ramirez to the White Sox. Huston Street was claimed, but is staying put.
- Position players on the move: Felipe Lopez signed with the Cardinals, the Mariners released Jose Vidro, and the Marlins signed Paul Lo Duca in addition to claiming Brad Ausmus off waivers. No word on whether or not a deal will be worked out for Ausmus yet.
- A few glimpses into 2009? Rafael Furcal hopes to re-sign with the Dodgers. Bobby Abreu hopes to be wearing Yankee pinstripes again, and the Nationals hope Willie Harris is a part of the organization again as well.
- Tim made a list of waiver trade candidates for both the American League and National League and compiled a list of players who were known to have cleared waivers in 2007. Remember, these are just players who would likely clear waivers, whether because of their talent level or contractual status. Teams often place big-name players on waivers that they have no intention of trading.
Abreu Hopes To Re-Sign With Yankees
According to Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com, right fielder Bobby Abreu hopes to play for the Yankees a few more years. A quote from Abreu:
"I’m a free agent at the end of the year, so you understand how that is. Here is where I want to be, but we still have this season to play. There’s still a long time before we talk about that."
Abreu, 34, is hitting .291/.364/.476 in 483 plate appearances this year. He did about the same in ’07. Last November the Yankees exercised Abreu’s $16MM option for ’08. It’s probably not going to make sense to pay Abreu much more than $12MM in ’09.
Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More
Time for this week’s mailbag. You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.
Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan
Funny you ask this. I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it." So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.
Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel
I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine. I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative? I don’t like the Livan idea. I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent. Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off. There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.
Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant
The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board. If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.
What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew
I’ll put it at a 10% chance. This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras. He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.
When, just when will this Santana situation be over?! It’s just killing me! – Dan
We all feel your pain Dan. Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this. I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now. Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.
Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin
C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you. If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships. Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy. So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer. Those reporters altered history.
What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus? Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler
We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May. There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training. I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.
Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew
Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season. The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense. If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.
Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve
Thankfully I did. I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites. Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.
Yankees Exercise Abreu’s Option For ’08
As expected, the Yankees have exercised Bobby Abreu‘s $16MM option for 2008. While it’s a little pricey, the cost certainty and one-year commitment made it an easy decision.
The Yankees may have an outfielder to spare, with Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui all under contract for 2008. Of course since the DH and 1B spots aren’t both tied up by Jason Giambi, Joe Girardi could definitely work with his current roster and get everyone the necessary ABs.
By my calculation the Yankees will have roughly $135MM worth of contracts for 2008 if Andy Pettitte exercises his option. They’re typically in the $190-210MM range. Another $28MM for Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera and they still have at least $37MM to spend. They’ll throw the bank at Mike Lowell if they get the chance. Even then there’s $25MM left over. I could see a Francisco Cordero signing for lack of a better way to spend the cash. How do you see the Yankees spending $25MM?
Yanks Dragging Feet With Posada, Discussing Crede
Mark Feinsand has really been on top of the Yankee rumors in this young offseason. Bill Madden helps him on this one. The Yankees still haven’t made an offer to Jorge Posada, and baseball insiders can’t figure out why. The Yanks are said to be prepared to offer 3/40, which most perceive as only a starting point in the negotiations.
The Mets hope to lure Posada away, but it could take four or even a ridiculous five years. Like I’ve said…4/56. The Yankees will pay up. But if the Mets do get the Posada prize, the Yankees at least get the Mets’ #22 overall pick in ’08 as consolation. In past years that could’ve represented Joba Chamberlain, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Garza, Colby Rasmus, Travis Buck, Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, or Huston Street.
Regarding their third base vacancy, the Yanks have already touched base with Kenny Williams about Joe Crede. Given the uncertainty, Crede’s pending free agency after ’08, and his Boras association, his trade value can’t be very high right now. My best guess remains some kind of Johnny Damon swap where the Yanks eat money. A year of Crede doesn’t seem worth four or five of any decent youngster.
Also, the deadline on Bobby Abreu‘s $16MM option is tomorrow. The Yanks will probably exercise it.