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Brad Keller

Royals Announce Five Roster Moves

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The Royals announced several roster moves today, including the news that Brady Singer and Brad Keller have both been placed on the 15-day injured list, ending their seasons.  Kansas City recalled right-hander Jonathan Bowlan from Triple-A and selected the contract of left-hander Anthony Veneziano from Triple-A as well.  To create 40-man roster space for Veneziano, Matt Beaty was designated for assignment.

Keller already spent a big chunk of the season on the 60-day IL due to a right shoulder impingement, and his placement today was due to a “return of symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome,” according to the Royals’ official announcement.  That is unwelcome news for the veteran righty, and it implies that a TOS surgery might be required to correct the problem.  The Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly is one of the rare examples of a pitcher returning from a TOS procedure and still pitching well in the aftermath, though if Keller does need a surgery, his chances of a recovery and a return to form might hinge on the specific nature of his TOS issue.

In the bigger picture, undergoing a major surgery will also certainly hamper Keller’s chances of landing a new contract in free agency this winter.  With a 5.17 ERA over 318 2/3 innings since Opening Day 2021, Keller was already likely looking at a non-guaranteed deal on the open market, but he might now face a longer wait before landing any kind of contract if he does indeed have to get a TOS procedure.

Singer has a strain in his left lower lumbar area, and the injury will put a coda on an overall disappointing year for the 27-year-old.  After seemingly breaking out in 2022, Singer appeared to be the front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher the Royals were desperately hoping to find from their group of highly-touted (but to date underwhelming) crop of top pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, Singer took a step backwards in 2023, with a 5.52 ERA over 159 2/3 innings and some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any hurler in baseball.  The right-hander’s strikeout rate was also well below average, sharply declining from 24.2% in 2022 to 18.9% in 2023.

One of the many questions the Royals face heading into 2024 is discovering what exactly they have in Singer, and whether or not he can be an effective and consistent starting pitcher.  He did have a few stretches of quality starts amidst his broader struggles in 2023, but that is small consolation for a Kansas City team in dire need of rotation help.

Veneziano has been in the Royals organization since he was selected in the 10th round of the 2019 draft.  After a strong start to the season at Double-A, he earned a promotion to Triple-A Omaha in mid-May.  He has pitched to a 4.22 ERA over 89 2/3 innings with below-average strikeout (20.6%) and walk (11.2%) rates, but it has been enough to earn the 26-year-old his first taste of Major League action.

Baseball America ranks Veneziano as the fourth-best prospect in the Kansas City farm system, while Bowlan is 18th on their list.  MLB Pipeline has Veneziano 16th and Bowlan out of their top 30 altogether, quite possibly owing to the injuries that have plagued Bowlan since he was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft.  He underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2021, and has dealt with some shoulder issues this year.

The results haven’t been there for Bowlan since returning from his TJ rehab, as he posted a 5.92 ERA over 62 1/3 combined innings (at rookie ball, high-A ball, and Double-A) in 2022, and he has a 5.91 ERA over 102 frames of Double-A and Triple-A work this season.  His first appearance with the Royals will also mark the MLB debut for the right-hander.

Since the Royals have off-days on both Thursday and Monday, it remains to be seen how they’ll line up their rotation over the final two weeks of the season.  However, it stands to reason that both Bowlan and Veneziano will get at least one start as K.C. looks to patch these holes in their rotation and takes a look at two farm system arms that could factor into the club’s 2024 plans.

This is the second time that Beaty has been designated for assignment this season, as the Giants DFA’ed him at the end of May.  Beaty opted for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment to the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate, and he landed in Kansas City on a minors deal in June.  This was technically his second stint with the Royals, as Beaty also signed a minor league contract with K.C. during the offseason but was then traded to San Francisco just prior to Opening Day.

Beaty has appeared in 26 big league games with the Royals, hitting .232/.358/.304 over 67 plate appearances.  That gives him only a .518 OPS over 119 PA since the start of the 2022 season, though Beaty was hampered by a shoulder injury for much of last year when he was a member of the Padres.  It seems likely that Beaty will clear waivers and again face an opt-out decision, and he could opt for free agency just to get a head start on the offseason rather than stick it out for the last few games of the Triple-A season.

Royals Make Four Roster Moves

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The Royals announced that Brad Keller has been reinstated from the club’s 60-day injured list, and that catcher Tyler Cropley’s contract has been selected from Double-A Arkansas.  In corresponding moves, Kansas City placed left-hander Austin Cox on the 60-day IL with a left knee sprain, and catcher Freddy Fermin will go on the 10-day IL due to a fracture in his right middle finger.

The 60-day placement will end Cox’s season, though suffering “only” a sprain might be something of a relief given the obvious pain on the southpaw’s face when he suffered the injury in Friday’s game.  Cox was running to cover first base on a grounder when a bad step caused his left leg to give out, and he had to be helped off the field.

It’s a rough end to Cox’s first Major League season.  A fifth-round pick for the Royals in the 2018 draft, Cox made his MLB debut in May and has a 4.79 ERA over 35 2/3 innings, working out of the bullpen in 21 of his 24 appearances (though he functioned as an opener in one of his three starts).  Cox’s strikeout (22.1%) and walk (11.4%) rates aren’t overly impressive, though he has done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing just two homers all season.

Fermin’s injury also must have been a recent occurrence, as he was the starting catcher throughout Friday’s game, a 5-4 loss to the Blue Jays.  After a three-game cup of coffee in 2022, the rookie has gotten a longer look this year, appearing in 70 games and hitting .281/.321/.461 with nine home runs over 235 plate appearances.  This solid play has increasingly given Fermin more time behind the plate, as Salvador Perez has been used more often as a first baseman or DH over the last five weeks.

Perez figures to return to regular catching duty with Fermin out, and MJ Melendez could also get some playing time even though he has primarily been used in an outfield role.  Since K.C. seems to prefer Melendez as an outfielder, it opens the door for Cropley to get his first taste of the big leagues after five pro seasons.

Cropley was an eighth-round pick for the Nationals in the 2018 draft, and he has the spent the last three years in the Kansas City organization.  The 27-year-old has a modest .235/.329/.359 slash line over 168 PA for Arkansas this season and he has never played any Triple-A ball, so the Royals could be viewing Cropley purely as a depth option in Fermin’s absence.

After posting a 4.36 ERA over his first nine starts and 43 1/3 innings of the season, Keller was sidelined with right shoulder impingement syndrome in mid-May and is only now returning to the K.C. rotation.  He’ll get the chance to log a few more appearances before the season is out, and perhaps take his final bows in a Royals uniform since Keller is a free agent this winter.  The right-hander has a 5.12 ERA over 316 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 season, and with this injury-marred season on his record, Keller may have difficulty finding a guaranteed big league contract from the Royals or any other team.

Royals Select John McMillon

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The Royals announced that they have selected right-hander John McMillon. In corresponding moves, right-hander Nick Wittgren was optioned to Triple-A while righty Brad Keller was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

McMillon, 25, was signed by the Royals in 2020 as an undrafted free agent. Since then, he’s climbed the minor league ranks by racking up huge strikeout totals, but also demonstrating a clear lack of control. He spent last year in Single-A, tossing 31 innings at that level with a 6.10 earned run average. He struck out 30.8% of batters faced but also walked an eye-popping 26%.

Here in 2023, he’s already covered three levels, going from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. He’s thrown a combined 51 1/3 frames between those stops with a 2.10 ERA. The 12.4% walk rate is still on the high side but a massive improvement over last year. He hasn’t lost any strikeout stuff either, punching out 45.3% of opponents.

With those extremes in his performance, there’s naturally some variation in the evaluations on his abilities. FanGraphs ranked him the #11 prospect in the system last month while Baseball America recently pegged him at #29. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs highlights McMillon’s fastball and slider, giving both pitches a 70 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale, adding that the righty could be an elite reliever right now with better control.

The Royals are well out of contention with a record of 39-82, second-worst in baseball with only the A’s beneath them. They can use the remainder of the season to give McMillon a shot at getting big league hitters out, skipping him over Triple-A, at least for the time being.

As for Keller, his transfer is largely a formality since he’s already been on the IL longer than 60 days, landing there back on May 19 due to right shoulder impingement syndrome. He started a rehab assignment in June but his discomfort eventually returned, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. He started another rehab assignment earlier this week but will have to ramp up and stay healthy before he’s likely to be activated. He’s set to become a free agent at the end of the season.

Who Else Could The Royals Trade?

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It’s been a quiet offseason for the Royals on the whole, but they’ve taken up a prominent position on the trade market in the past few days, shipping center fielder Michael A. Taylor to the division-rival Twins in exchange for relief prospects Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, and flipping infielder Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox in exchange for reliever Josh Taylor the following day.

Those might not be the only trades in store for general manager J.J. Picollo in his first offseason atop the team’s baseball operations hierarchy. The Royals have reportedly discussed infielder Nicky Lopez with the White Sox in what would be a second intra-division swap. More broadly, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that Kansas City still had “a couple more deals” that they’re in the process of “lining up.” With that in mind, it’s worth taking a look at some of the names the Royals could potentially ship out in the days and weeks leading up to spring training.

First and foremost, it should be pointed out that both Taylor and Mondesi were a year away from reaching the open market. They represented short-term assets for a Royals team that knows itself to be, at best, a long shot to contend in 2023. Lopez is more of of a mid-range player in terms of remaining club control, as he’s arbitration-eligible through the 2025 season. Presumably, the Royals won’t want to surrender much more team control than that. Players like Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto are all controllable through at least the 2028 season; it’s unlikely the Royals would give much consideration to moving anyone from that group.

Onto some more plausible names, beginning with the focus of yesterday’s White Sox rumors…

Nicky Lopez, 2B/SS | Age: 27 (28 in March) | Contract: Signed for $3.7MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Lopez has been an all-glove player outside a 2021 season that currently looks anomalous in nature. He posted a .300/.365/.378 batting line in 565 plate appearances that season but did so with a .347 batting average on balls in play that’s 53 points higher than his career mark of .294. Lopez is a career .252/.309/.321 hitter in more than 1600 plate appearances. To say he doesn’t hit the ball hard would be an understatement; Lopez ranked 246th of 252 qualified hitters with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and 250th with a 22.9% hard-hit rate. Statcast ranked him in the third percentile of MLB hitters in terms of “expected” slugging percentage.

That’s not a ringing endorsement of Lopez by any stretch, but he has plenty of positive attributes: namely his bat-to-ball skills and prodigious defensive prowess. Lopez fanned in just 13.1% of his plate appearances in each of the past two seasons, exhibiting strong contact skills. He doesn’t take especially lengthy at-bats (average 3.66 pitcher per plate appearance, compared to the league-average 3.9), but Lopez puts the ball in play and runs fairly well, ranking in the 58th percentile of MLB players in terms of sprint speed, per Statcast.

Defensively, there are few better players in the game — at least in the estimation of Statcast. He’s been an above-average but not elite defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average credits Lopez with excellent marks at second base (12) and particularly at shortstop (31) in his career. The sure-handed Lopez has made just 20 errors as a big leaguer and shown aptitude at both middle infield slots as well as in briefer sessions at the hot corner.

With three more years of club control remaining, there’s no urgency to trade Lopez. However, the Royals have Witt at shortstop and want to give 24-year-old Michael Massey a chance to claim the second base job.

Scott Barlow, RHP | Age: 30 | Contract: Signed for $5.3MM, arb-eligible through 2024

Likely the most popular potential trade chip on the Royals, Barlow has stepped up as the team’s closer and solidified himself as a quality late-game option in Kansas City. He’s pitched matching totals of 74 1/3 innings over the past two seasons, logging a combined 2.30 ERA with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate, 43.3% grounder rate, 0.79 HR/9 mark and 40 saves.

Over the past two seasons, Barlow is tied for 22nd among 138 qualified relievers with a 15% swinging-strike rate. His 36.9% chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ties him for 15th in that same set of hurlers. Barlow has also excelled at hitting spots and freezing batters (18.1% called-strike rate), and his combined 33.1% called strike-plus-whiff rate is eighth among MLB relievers since 2021. He limits hard contact extremely well (86.4 mph average exit velocity, 30.3% hard-hit rate in 2022), has plus spin on his heater and generates plus extension with his delivery, per Statcast.

It’s not all roses with Barlow, however. He saw his average fastball dip from 95.3 mph in 2021 to 93.7 mph in 2022. In conjunction, both his strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate saw notable drops. This past season’s 1.09 HR/9 mark was the worst he’s posted in a full season, and (likely because of the drop in strikeouts) Barlow needed a charitable .240 average on balls in play to get to his sparkling 2.18 ERA; that’s 75 points lower than his 2021 mark and 84 points lower than the career mark he carried into 2022. It’s not likely to be repeated, so if the velocity and strikeouts remain at their 2022 levels, Barlow’s ERA is going to be in for quite a bit of regression.

Even with some modest red flags in 2022, Barlow remains a quality reliever who can be controlled at a relatively affordable rate for the next two seasons. If he were a free agent this winter, he’d surely have commanded a good bit more than the $12-14MM or so he’ll command in his final two arbitration seasons. There’s surplus value here, and if the Royals are (understandably) pessimistic about their chances in 2023, Barlow’s trade value will be at its apex either now or this summer.

Taylor Clarke, RHP | Age: 29 (30 in May) | Contract: Signed for $1.15MM, arb-eligible through 2025

Cut loose by the D-backs after the 2021 season, Clarke signed a surprising Major League deal with Kansas City and proved a shrewd pickup, tossing 49 innings with a 4.04 ERA. Clarke logged 10 holds and a trio of saves but worked more in low- and medium-leverage spots than in high-leverage scenarios.

It might be a middle relief profile, but if you squint there’s perhaps a bit more here. Clarke’s 3.9% walk rate was elite, and he posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (23.6%), swinging-strike rate (12.2%) and opponents’ chase rate (36.5%) — all while averaging 95.7 mph on his fastball. Fielding independent metrics felt he was far better than his ERA (3.30 FIP, 3.15 xERA, 3.16 SIERA). He doesn’t immediately jump out as a trade candidate, but three affordable years of control on a hard-throwing reliever who’s trending in the right direction might pique another team’s interest.

Amir Garrett, LHP | Age: 30 (31 in May) | Contract: Signed for $2.65MM, free agent after 2023 season

The Royals picked up Garrett in the March trade that sent lefty Mike Minor to Cincinnati. It didn’t work out particularly well for either side. Garrett pitched 45 1/3 innings and limped to a 4.96 ERA as his longstanding command woes spiked to new heights. Garrett walked 16.3% of his opponents last year, plunked another five batters and threw seven wild pitches. His 94.2 mph average fastball was his lowest mark since moving to the bullpen full-time.

Garrett still whiffed a quarter of his opponents, however, and he somewhat incredibly didn’t give up a home run all season. Unsustainable as that feat may be, its reflective of the fact that Garrett didn’t really get hit hard in Kansas City (88.3 mph exit velo, 30% hard-hit rate). Hard-throwing lefties who can miss bats are always going to find work, and Garrett’s salary is quite affordable.

At his best, Garrett logged a 3.03 ERA with a 33% strikeout rate in 74 1/3 innings from 2019-20. Another club might look at him as a bargain power arm who could be fixed.

Brad Keller, RHP | Age: 27 | Contract: Signed for $5.775MM, free agent after 2023 season

It’s been a rough couple seasons for Keller, who from 2018-20 looked like one of the best Rule 5 Draft picks in recent memory. Keller logged a 3.50 ERA through his first three seasons, going from a long reliever to an entrenched member of the Kansas City rotation. His 2021-22 seasons, however, have gone the opposite direction. Since Opening Day 2021, Keller has a 5.24 ERA in 273 1/3 innings. His walk rate has crept upward, and his once solid abilities to avoid hard contact have seemingly evaporated; Keller’s 1.15 HR/9 mark over the past two seasons is nearly double the 0.60 rate he turned in from 2018-20. His opponents’ barrel and hard-hit rates have exploded from 4.5% and 35.7%, respectively, to 8.7% and 42.8%.

Those struggles notwithstanding, Keller’s only trip to the Major League injured list (Covid-related list excluded) was in 2021 when he missed the final month of the season due to a lat strain. That didn’t seem to linger into the 2022 campaign, as Keller avoided the IL entirely while making 22 starts and another 13 relief appearances. At the very least, he should be viewed as a durable, affordable, innings-eating rental. And, if a team can restore his once-plus slider to its previous form, there’s bargain potential for the righty, who won’t turn 28 until late July.

Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF | Age: 31 | Contract: Guaranteed $17.5MM through 2024, plus $10MM club option for 2025

Dozier’s outstanding 2019 season feels like a distant memory. He slashed .279/.348/.522 with 26 home runs that season, clocking in at 23% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. (If that seems low, recall that 2019 is widely regarded as a season in which MLB juiced the baseballs, resulting in unprecedented levels of offense throughout the game.)

Since that time, Dozier has recorded a tepid .226/.297/.391 batting line. His authoritative batted-ball profile from that 2019 season has wilted and now looks quite pedestrian, and Dozier doesn’t have the defensive skills to offset his now lackluster offense. He’s posted respectable defensive grades at first base but ranks as one of the worst third basemen and right fielders in the sport, according to both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

With $17.5MM in guaranteed money left on his contract, Dozier’s deal is underwater. He could potentially be swapped out for another bad contract, although the Royals typically haven’t made that type of move in the past.

Longer Shots

There are, of course, others who could potentially be of interest to other clubs. The Royals control Brady Singer for another four seasons, and he just enjoyed what looks like a breakout 2022 campaign. Given that glut of remaining club control, however, there’s little reason to entertain the idea of moving Singer unless another team makes a staggering offer. For different reasons, reliever Josh Staumont also seems unlikely to go. The Royals control Staumont through 2025, and from 2020-21 he looked like a long-term piece in the bullpen. Staumont’s walk rate spiked to an awful 16.5% last year, though, and he missed a combined seven weeks with a neck strain and biceps tendinitis. Trading him now would be selling low on a potential power-armed, leverage reliever.

Behind the plate, Salvador Perez is entrenched as the effective captain of the Royals. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote earlier in the offseason that the Royals have no interest in moving Perez, who’s owed $64MM over the next three seasons. That’s not at all surprising, given his status within the organization. Some might naturally think that means young catcher and recent top prospect MJ Melendez could be available, but the Royals have worked Melendez into the outfield and DH mix as well. With six years of club control remaining, there’s little reason to think he’d be available, particularly on the heels of a down season. Melendez isn’t the type of player on whom the Royals would sell low.

Royals Move Brad Keller To Bullpen

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The Royals have moved right-hander Brad Keller from the rotation to the bullpen, manager Mike Matheny announced to reporters (link via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). For now, Matheny indicated the plan is merely to “take a look” at Keller in this role, suggesting the organization hasn’t necessarily giving up on him as a starter entirely.

Keller’s shift to the ’pen is a reminder of how quickly things can change in baseball. Just a month ago, he looked the part of an appealing trade chip for the Royals, having pitched to a 3.96 ERA through his first 17 starts. Keller’s 16.4% strikeout rate in that time was well south of the league average, but he also boasted better-than-average walk and ground-ball rates (7.8% and 51.6%, respectively). He’d done a fine job managing hard contact and, while obviously not an overpowering pitcher, looked well on his way to another season as a solid back-of-the-rotation innings eater.

In five starts since that time, however, Keller has been rocked for 25 runs (24 earned) through just 24 2/3 innings of work. He’s twice surrendered eight runs in a start and yielded five home runs in that time (after allowing just four in his prior 43 innings of work). Keller has also walked an uncharacteristic 12.3% of his opponents during this stretch, and after allowing an 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 38.8% hard-hit rate through his first 17 starts, has yielded a 92.1 mph average exit velo and 50% hard-hit rate during this recent slump.

It’s a jarring stretch, one that mirrors many of the struggles the 27-year-old endured in a down 2021 year that, until recently, looked like an aberration. Keller was a steady member of the Kansas City staff from 2018-20 before slipping in ’21 and posting an unsightly 5.39 ERA in 133 2/3 frames (26 starts). The primary factors behind his struggles were spikes in both his walk rate and home-run rate, as has been the case over the past month. Even with those 2021 struggles and this recent stretch of five dismal outings, Keller still carries a career 4.19 ERA with well above-average ground-ball tendencies.

As is always the case, there’s a certain level of intrigue when taking a starter and dropping him into a relief role. Pitchers typically throw harder when they know they’re working in short stints and can thus throw at a higher intensity without needing to worry about saving some gas for second and third trips through the batting order. Keller’s slider has long graded out as a plus pitch, and we know he can rack up grounders. If a few extra ticks of velocity can improve the results on his sinker or generate some extra whiffs with his four-seamer (which already has above-average spin), it’s possible the bullpen version of Keller could turn some heads.

On the other side of the coin, of course, continued struggles in his new role could muddy the waters for Keller and his outlook with the Royals. He’s already in his fifth season with Kansas City, and the former Rule 5 draft pick — one of the best Rule 5 selections in recent memory, to the Royals’ credit — is only under team control through the 2023 season. He’ll be due a raise on this year’s $4.825MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, and although his struggles will limit the magnitude of that raise, he could still pull in something north of $6MM.

The Royals may tender Keller a contract regardless, considering that a reasonable price to pay for a pitcher with his track record — 2022 struggles notwithstanding. Still, a nice finish to the season — whether pitching well enough out of the ’pen to win back a rotation spot or simply shining as a reliever down the stretch — would solidify the ground on which he’s standing. The Royals did discuss Keller with other teams prior to the trade deadline, so it’s likely that those interested parties will also be keeping tabs on how he performs in a new role.

With Keller stepping to the side, the Royals’ rotation will have some fluidity. Zack Greinke will remain in place as a veteran workhorse, followed by right-hander Brady Singer, who appears in the midst of a breakout. Lefties Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic have pedestrian numbers overall but have both been quite sharp in their past eight starts. Any of Jonathan Heasley, Jackson Kowar, Drew Parrish or Max Castillo could be options to step into Keller’s rotation spot down the stretch.

Royals Discussing Several Veterans In Trade Talks

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1:55pm: Starter Brad Keller is also garnering interest, per Feinsand. The 27-year-old righty has a 4.18 ERA on the year, with a tepid 16% strikeout rate but above-average 51.5% ground ball rate. He’s making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration for another season.

10:41am: With just under seven hours until the deadline, the Royals could be an important factor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the markets for outfielder Michael A. Taylor, as well as relievers Josh Staumont and Scott Barlow are “heating up.”

The fact that the Royals are discussing trading away pieces of their major league roster is not surprising, given their place in the standings. They are 41-62 on the year and well out of contention. The question now is how much selling they’re willing to do. They’ve already traded Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees, though he was a pure rental, heading into free agency at the end of the year. The three players mentioned by Feinsand all come with extra control and don’t strictly need to be traded, though there would be reasons to consider offers on all three.

In the case of Taylor, he was headed into free agency this time last year but signed a two-year extensions to stay in KC. That means the Royals could keep him around for the 2023 campaign, but he’s having the best season of his career at the plate. His .280/.352/.395 slash line amounts to a 114 wRC+, or 14% above league average. In each of the previous four seasons, he was between 71 and 77 in that department. He’s also dropped his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate relative to previous seasons, suggesting that his better production is a result of an improved approach at the plate as opposed to mere luck.

He’s also making a modest $4.5MM salary this year, though with some incentives that could increase that number. Still, with only about one third of the season remaining, any acquiring team would be adding less than $2MM to their ledger. That’s a small price to pay for a guy hitting at an above-average level. Of course, Taylor’s primary calling card is his defense and the center field market has been notoriously thin. Teams have been trying to acquire guys like Bryan Reynolds, Cedric Mullins and Ramon Laureano for quite some time, without success so far. Perhaps that will allow the Royals to get an offer good enough that they take and allow Kyle Isbel to take over in center field.

As for Barlow and Staumont, they both come with multiple years of control, with Barlow set to reach free agency after the 2024 season and Staumont one year later. However, relief pitching is always in high demand this time of year, with just about every contender looking to bolster their bullpen with an intriguing arm or two. The Royals can certainly opt for hanging onto them for future seasons, but relievers are also notoriously subject to fluctuations from season to season. If the offers are good enough, the Royals could give some thought to taking what’s in front of them before either pitcher suffers an injury or a dip in performance.

For now, though, both are having good seasons and would find plenty of interest from rival teams. Barlow is having his fourth straight solid season but has changed his results this year, getting fewer strikeouts and more ground balls. From 2019 through 2021, Barlow threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.45 ERA, 30% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 40.8% ground ball rate. This year, he has a 2.36 ERA while getting strikeouts just 24% of the time but grounders at a 50.4% clip while also cutting his walk rate to 6.5%. All that’s come while pitching in high-leverage situations, as Barlow racked up 16 saves last year and 17 already this year. He’s making $2.4MM on the year and has two more passes through arbitration to go. Considering all of that, it’s unsurprising he’s in high demand around the league.

Staumont isn’t quite at Barlow’s level but is still interesting nonetheless. Since debuting in 2019, he’s thrown 141 1/3 MLB innings with a 3.18 ERA and 26.5% strikeout rate. His 12.5% walk rate and 33.6% grounder rate are both worse than league average, but he’s still plenty effective. He won’t reach arbitration until this winter, meaning he could fit into the budget of any team and would still have three years of control remaining.

All three of these players have reasons for other teams to be interested, the question will be how much the Royals are willing to part with them. The club has had aspirations for competing in recent years but hasn’t yet succeeded. Trading any of these three could hurt the roster in the immediate future but would also likely add prospects that could help a few years down the line.

Royals Add Nick Pratto, Seven Others To Major League Roster

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The Royals announced Thursday that they’ve recalled top first base prospect Nick Pratto from Triple-A Omaha as one of eight players joining the Major League roster. Also coming to the Majors are catcher Sebastian Rivero, infielder Maikel Garcia and lefty Angel Zerpa, who’ve been recalled from Double-A Arkansas. Additionally, the Royals selected the contracts of infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton, catcher Freddy Fermin, outfielder Brewer Hicklen and infielder Michael Massey from Omaha.

The deluge of additions comes in conjunction with the previously announced slate of ten current Royals heading to the restricted list in advance of the team’s road series against the Blue Jays, where travel restrictions prevent unvaccinated athletes from entering Canada. Andrew Benintendi, Dylan Coleman, Hunter Dozier, Cam Gallagher, Kyle Isbel, Brad Keller, MJ Melendez, Whit Merrifield, Brady Singer and Michael A. Taylor are all now formally on the restricted list.

As MLB.com’s Anne Rogers tweets, the roster spots of starting pitchers placed on the restricted list (i.e. Singer, Keller) cannot be filled until four days after they last pitched, per MLB rules, which explains the discrepancy between eight players being added versus the ten who went on the restricted list.

The Royals indicated in today’s announcement that they expect to add “up to two more players” to the big league roster over the course of the series. They’ll make another addition tomorrow and another on Sunday. Any players whose contracts were selected to the 40-man roster for this series can be returned to Triple-A without first needing to clear waivers, due to their status as Covid-19-related replacements.

Pratto’s promotion is the most notable of the bunch. The 14th overall pick in the 2017 draft, the California high school product slowly progressed up the minor league ladder. He had an awful 2019 showing in High-A, and the cancelation of the following minor league season dealt his prospect stock a hit heading into 2021. The lefty hitter rebounded in a huge way last year, blasting 36 home runs in a season split between the minors top two levels. That came with some alarming strikeout numbers, but Pratto’s combination of power and huge walk totals was enough to put him firmly in top prospect consideration. He entered the season as Baseball America’s #43 overall farmhand.

Assigned to Omaha to open this year, Pratto has essentially picked up where he left off. He’s hit 17 more longballs and drawn walks at a massive 15.1% clip, but he’s fanned in over 30% of his trips to the plate. The end result — a .240/.374/.484 line through 337 plate appearances — is still excellent. The Royals nevertheless brought up fellow top prospect Vinnie Pasquantino ahead of Pratto, seemingly preferring he get a long leash to iron out the strikeout concerns in the upper minors. It’s very possible he’ll head back to Omaha after the Jays’ series, but Kansas City fans will at least get their first glimpse at a player they hope eventually develops into a middle-of-the-order bat.

It’ll almost certainly be a brief stint for the group of players temporarily added to the 40-man roster. Hicklen was called up briefly as a COVID replacement earlier in the season. Fermin, Massey and Eaton all have opportunities to make their big league debuts in the coming days. Fermin, a former international signee out of Venezuela, is hitting .242/.357/.422 with Omaha this season.

Massey, a fourth-round pick out of Illinois in 2019, was recently named the #8 prospect in the Kansas City system by Baseball America. He owns a .348/.408/.630 line with six homers in 24 games since being bumped up to Omaha last month, and he’ll almost certainly land a permanent 40-man roster spot by next offseason (when Kansas City would need to add him to keep him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft). Eaton is a former 21st-round pick out of VMI. BA recently slotted him 29th in the farm system in recognition of his .329/.388/.591 showing with the Storm Chasers.

Royals To Place Andrew Benintendi, Nine Others On Restricted List

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The Royals are traveling to Toronto tomorrow to begin a series against the Blue Jays but will be without a significant portion of their regular roster. The team announced to reporters, including Alec Lewis of The Athletic, that ten players will be placed on the restricted list. Since unvaccinated travelers are not allowed to cross the Canada-U.S. border, it’s become common for teams to place a handful of players on the restricted list before playing in Toronto. However, the quantity and quality of the Royals players included is noteworthy. The full list of names: Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Cam Gallagher, MJ Melendez, Brady Singer, Brad Keller, Kyle Isbel, Michael A. Taylor and Dylan Coleman.

Benintendi is one of the top trade chips this year, as he’s an impending free agent having a good season for a noncompetitive team. He landed the #2 slot on MLBTR’s recent list of top trade candidates, trailing only Willson Contreras. Benintendi is walking in 10.2% of his plate appearances while striking out just 14% of the time and hitting .317/.386/.401 on the year. That amounts to a wRC+ of 127, or 27% above league average. With the Royals currently 35-53, a record worse than all American League teams except for the A’s, they stand out as obvious deadline sellers.

Two weeks ago, it was reported that the Blue Jays were among the teams interested in acquiring Benintendi, which was a fairly logical match. Benintendi bats from the left side, whereas the Blue Jays have a right-handed heavy lineup. They acquired outfielder Raimel Tapia from the Rockies in an offseason trade as a way to try to balance things out. Unfortunately, he’s hit just .263/.289/.375 for an 84 wRC+ this year. Swapping Benintendi into Tapia’s role as part of an outfield/DH mix with George Springer, Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. would have been a straightforward upgrade. However, this news would seem to more or less eliminate the chances of such a deal coming together since Benintendi would only be available to the Blue Jays for road games.

In the short term, the Royals will have to find replacements for these players in order get through the upcoming four-game series against the Blue Jays, which starts tomorrow. The corresponding moves are not known at this time.

An Under-The-Radar Controllable Starting Pitcher Trade Candidate

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The old saw that states “you can never have enough pitching” gets bandied about a lot at this time of year. With the trade deadline now three weeks away, just about every contender is looking to bolster its staff by adding an arm or two. Even the Yankees, who have managed to keep their five starters healthy enough to make 15 starts each so far, are in the Luis Castillo bidding.

Naturally, there’s been much attention on Castillo, along with his teammate Tyler Mahle and Oakland’s Frankie Montas. All three of them have been in trade rumors for a long time as their respective clubs have been paring back payroll. With Mahle and Montas both dealing with minor injuries, Castillo has understandably become the primary target, with the Cardinals, Mariners, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Mets, Yankees and Blue Jays all having been publicly connected to his market in recent days. But even if the Reds do pull the trigger on a deal, only one of these teams will get the headline-grabbing prize, leaving the rest to turn to other options.

For teams that fall short on Castillo or the other big names, they might want to consider calling Kansas City about 26-year-old Brad Keller (turning 27 in a couple of weeks). He hasn’t been the subject of any trade rumors thus far, but he came in at #43 on MLBTR’s list of top trade candidates. While he won’t be able to offer the same kind of ace-like upside, what he can provide is fairly reliable outcomes.

Nabbed by the Royals from the Diamondbacks in the 2017 Rule 5 draft (actually selected by the Reds and promptly traded to KC), Keller has been a mainstay of their pitching staff over the past 4 1/2 seasons. He doesn’t have overwhelming strikeout numbers, but generally avoids barrels and gets ground balls in order to consistently put up solid numbers. He’s appeared in 121 career games, throwing 591 2/3 frames with a 4.03 ERA. His career strikeout rate of 17.4% is a few ticks below average, which is 21.4% for starting pitchers this year. His 9.2% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 7.7% rate among starters. Then his 51.1% ground ball rate is well above the customary average range, which is at 42.6% this season.

Brad KellerThose numbers for Keller have also been fairly consistent year-over-year, with his strikeout rate always falling between 16.3% and 19.6%, his walk rate between 7.8% and 10.4%, with his grounder rate between 47.8% and 54.4%. But as a ground ball pitcher, the one thing that’s not consistent is BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. Strikeout pitchers naturally have more control of their outcomes as they aren’t reliant on batted balls finding gloves and being fielded cleanly. A pitcher like Keller can be helped or harmed by randomness in this regard. For instance, in 2020, Keller’s BABIP dropped to .233, about 50 points below his previous seasons. That led to a career-best 2.47 ERA that year. However, the wheel of fortune spun him round the other way in 2021, as his BABIP shot up to .347 and took his ERA to 5.39.

It doesn’t seem like the BABIP gods can fully explain Keller’s poor 2021 season, as his barrel rate also increased. After limiting barrels to rates between 3.7 and 5.9% in his first three campaigns, it jumped to 10.9% last year. Keller has evened out here in 2022, though, with a .275 BABIP, 5.5% barrel rate and 4.15 ERA, all very close to his career norms. It’s also possible that he could improve on these numbers with a change of scenery to a team with better defense, depending on which advanced metric you prefer. The Royals as a team have -19 Defensive Runs Saved, 26th in the majors, though Outs Above Average has them 13th and Ultimate Zone Rating 6th.

Guys with fairly reliable ERAs just north of 4.00 maybe aren’t as exciting as the 2.92 that Luis Castillo currently owns, but they have the potential to be important pickups nonetheless. It’s worth remembering that while Max Scherzer and Jose Berrios got the headlines last year, the Cardinals were able to pick up veterans Jon Lester and J.A. Happ, who stabilized their rotation and helped the club surge into the postseason.

Financially speaking, Keller is making $4.825MM this year and can be controlled for one more season via arbitration. Once the deadline rolls around, there will be less than $2MM of that to be paid out, making him an easy fit on just about every team’s budget. Of course, the Royals might want to hang onto him for the same reasons, especially considering their young starters have mostly disappointed this year. Of their pitchers that have made more than one start this year, Keller’s 4.15 ERA is actually the lowest among them, followed by Brady Singer’s 4.25 and Zack Greinke’s 4.52. With Greinke a free agent at season’s end, a Keller trade would leave the club with a lot of work to do on their rotation in the offseason.

General manager J.J. Picollo spoke to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star in the wake of yesterday’s Drew Waters trade and also spoke about the upcoming deadline. “We don’t feel the extreme need that we have to move any players,” he said. “We feel like we’re in a good spot. We know where the interest lies from other teams right now. Now, it’s a matter of them assessing how willing they are.” Based on those comments, it doesn’t seem like they’re planning any kind of drastic selloff. After all, they have been trying to compete in the past couple of seasons, just without success thus far. But with a 34-52 record that has them in the AL Central basement, they could perhaps extract more value from a prospect or two that can help them further into the future than an innings eater that’s approaching the open market.

If they are willing to consider a deal, they should get plenty of interest. The aforementioned Cardinals could look to Keller, like they looked to Lester and Happ last year. Their strong defense should work well with Keller’s ground ball approach and they will be without Jack Flaherty for the next couple of months. The Yankees already have strong upside in their rotation but might want a steady arm to make spot starts, allowing them to control the workloads of their front five and keep them healthy. They’re also leading the league in Defensive Runs Saved this year, making them a solid fit for a contact pitcher. The Giants are two games out of a playoff spot and might not want to give up big prospects to chase a Wild Card, but they could grab Keller to make up for the loss of Anthony DeSclafani and hope to stay in the race. The Blue Jays have a lopsided rotation with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah at the front, but questions at the back due to the injury to Hyun Jin Ryu and struggles of Yusei Kikuchi. The Brewers are in a similar situation, with Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff at the front, but injuries to Freddy Peralta and Adrian Houser forcing them to lean on their depth for the back end. Ditto for the Phillies who have Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler at the front but have Ranger Suarez and Zach Eflin on the IL. The Twins, Red Sox and Rays have all put starters on the IL in the past week or so, and more injuries are sure to pop up around the league in the weeks to come.

As mentioned, the Cardinals patched holes with Lester and Happ last year and went 22-7 in September. The Braves added Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall when they were below .500 but ended up winning the World Series. Keller alone isn’t likely to turn a team’s entire season around, but he’s a decent puzzle piece that could fit in a number of places. Making a splash at the deadline is great fun, but it can sometimes be the little additions that make the biggest difference.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Select Dylan Coleman

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The Royals have selected the contract of righty Dylan Coleman and reinstated right-hander Brady Singer from the injured list, per a club announcement. Kansas City moved fellow righties Brad Keller and Wade Davis from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL in a pair of corresponding 40-man roster moves. (A 40-man move was necessary for Singer, who’d been on the Covid-related injured list.) The Royals are also calling up outfielder Edward Olivares as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader.

Coleman, 25, joined the Royals alongside Olivares in last summer’s Trevor Rosenthal trade with the Padres. The 2018 fourth-rounder has enjoyed a strong season in the upper minors, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A while recording a combined 3.28 ERA with a massive 40.4 percent strikeout rate and a 9.6 percent walk rate in 57 2/3 innings of relief.

Coleman ranked 18th among Royals farmhands on the midseason rankings from FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and 29th over at MLB.com. Longenhagen notes that while Coleman lost some life on his fastball in 2019, he’s now throwing harder than ever before, sitting upper 90s and occasionally reaching 100 mph. Both FanGraphs and MLB.com note that his slider lacks consistency, however, so he’ll need to refine that offering (or develop a new secondary offering) if he’s to settle in as a high-leverage option in the Kansas City bullpen.

The news on Keller and Davis isn’t especially surprising at this point. The Royals revealed last week that Keller would be shut down for the season, and Davis went on the injured list due to shoulder inflammation five days ago. He’d technically have had time to return, but there’d only have been about a week’s worth of games remaining on the calendar by the earliest date on which he could be activated. Davis is a free agent at season’s end. Keller is arbitration-eligible and under club control through the 2023 season.

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