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Twins Place Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. Right-hander Ronny Henriquez has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in his place. Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that Paddack informed the team after his most recent start that he’s been experiencing a dead arm recently.

Some fatigue for Paddack should come as little surprise. The 28-year-old righty pitched only 18 1/3 innings last year (minors and postseason included) in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery — a procedure that limited him to just 22 1/3 frames that season. He’s already surpassed his combined 2022-23 innings total with this year’s 78 1/3 frames.

It’s been an up-and-down season for Paddack in his first full year since his second career Tommy John surgery. Overall, his 5.29 ERA looks rather grim, but that number is heavily skewed by two disastrous outings: a nine-run drubbing in Baltimore during his third start of the season and a seven-run showing at Yankee Stadium earlier this month. On the other end of the spectrum, Paddack has a pair of 10-strikeout gems this season. He’s been a boom-or-bust option for manager Rocco Baldelli throughout the year, but Paddack will take a seat for at least the next two weeks after yielding a combined eight runs in his past seven innings of work across two starts (both of which came against a lackluster Oakland lineup).

With Paddack on the shelf, the Twins will have an opening in the fifth spot of the rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Paddack’s spot is set to come up on Thursday, though the Twins just had an off-day, which could allow them to start Ober on regular rest that day. St. Paul righties Caleb Boushley and Randy Dobnak would also be on full rest (Dobnak would need to be added to the 40-man roster) if the Twins want to give Ober an extra day after throwing a complete game his last time out.

Other depth options like Louie Varland and top prospect David Festa both pitched within the past couple days, likely ruling them out for Thursday — but either could be an option for subsequent starts, depending on how long Paddack is out. There’s no timetable for Paddack’s return at present, though the lack of a strain or any other notable injury doesn’t create immediate concern of a protracted absence. The right-hander is in the second season of a three-year, $12.5MM extension he signed while rehabbing from that Tommy John procedure. That deal bought out Paddack’s final two arbitration seasons as well as his first free-agent year.

Twins Expect To Add At Least One Starting Pitcher

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Much of the focus of the Twins’ offseason thus far has been on their intent to scale back payroll amid the collapse of their RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports, and potential trades of veterans like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez. However, while all of those storylines remain valid, the Twins’ desire to reduce payroll doesn’t preclude them from spending at all. Minnesota has a projected payroll of about $125MM right now and figures to end up in the $125-135MM range. Trades of Kepler ($10MM salary in 2024), Polanco ($10.5MM), Farmer ($6.6MM projected salary) and/or Vazquez ($10MM) could leave them with room for some spending.

To that end, it’s worth highlighting that both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic have written this week that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter. That’s not likely to be a top-of-the-market name but rather someone to compete with Louie Varland for the final spot in the rotation, Nightengale suggests. Minnesota also hopes to bring in a second veteran arm (if not more) on a minor league deal, Hayes adds.

As it stands, even with the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota has a respectable front five. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and the aforementioned Varland are currently at the top of the depth chart, with minor league arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick and yet-to-debut prospects David Festa and Matt Canterino (who missed the 2023 season due rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery) next in line.

It’s a nice group of arms, but Paddack figures to be on an innings count in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. He looked excellent in 8 2/3 innings of bullpen work late in the regular season and during the playoffs, but overall he pitched just 18 1/3 frames between his minor league rehab stint, brief regular-season return, and that playoff showing. He pitched 22 1/3 innings the year prior.

The Twins don’t yet know how many innings they can count on from Paddack, but it’ll surely be fewer than his career-high 140 2/3 frames. Even reaching 100 frames would have to be considered a success, given his recent lack of innings. All four of their other starters topped 140 innings in 2023 (Triple-A time for Varland and Ober included), but the Twins can’t presume each of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland will be healthy enough for 30-plus appearances for a second straight season in 2024 (again, including Triple-A time for the latter two). They’re also losing a combined 288 1/3 innings from the departures of Gray and Maeda.

Even if the Twins can safely be crossed off the list of expected suitors for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and the like, there are plenty of experienced arms who could slot into the mix in the final two rotation spots. A veteran like Wade Miley would provide steady innings on a short-term deal. The Twins could also pursue an upside/rebound play like Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas, the latter of whom they targeted in trades a couple years back. On the lower end of the salary spectrum, the Twins’ existing depth makes them a reasonable candidate to roll the dice on former top prospect and reigning KBO MVP Erick Fedde, who’s eyeing a possible MLB return. In general, it’s a deep class of free-agent pitchers. It’s also plausible that they could acquire a younger back-of-the-rotation candidate in a deal involving one of those previously mentioned trade candidates, simultaneously bolstering depth and scaling back payroll in the process.

The Twins probably aren’t going to be major free-agent players this offseason, as they’ve been in the past couple winters, but between their pursuit of some additional innings/rotation depth and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey’s recent acknowledgment that he’ll likely explore the first base market, Minnesota could still be active in the middle and lower tiers of free agency — in addition to their expected activity on the trade market.

The Twins’ Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason

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The Twins’ bullpen got a big boost last night, when flamethrowing righties Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart returned to the mound. Paddack has been out all season recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Stewart has been on the shelf with elbow discomfort for the past three months.

Paddack nearly made his return on Sunday, but a rain delay ended his outing before it began. Thus, it wasn’t until last night that he finally threw a pitch in a Major League Baseball game, his first since last May. While the results weren’t quite what he hoped for – he gave up three runs in two innings of work – the underlying numbers were encouraging. The 6-foot-5 right-hander struck out four, earning six called strikes and seven whiffs. His fastball was averaging 96 mph and touching 99; last season, his four-seam averaged just 93 mph and topped out at 96. To be fair, he was a starting pitcher last year, but even so, a 3-mph bump is a promising sign of good things to come. Paddack was never a power pitcher during his time as a starter, but he seems to have discovered a penchant for high heat.

Stewart, for his part, picked up right where he left off. The 31-year-old turned heads earlier this season, showing off a 97-mph fastball and striking out 35.4% of the batters he faced. His heater was back in full force on Tuesday, averaging just under 98 mph. He struck out two of three opposing hitters, inducing eight swings and four whiffs and lowering his season ERA to 0.68.

With Paddack and Stewart back in the fold, the Twins suddenly find themselves with an abundance of talented relievers, an asset every team longs for but few possess. Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagán, and Caleb Thielbar lead the way, with capable arms like Griffin Jax and Kody Funderburk behind them. Paddack and Stewart provide further depth, as do recently converted starters Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda. That’s nine arms the Twins can count on in October, many of whom have dominant reliever upside.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will lean a little harder on his most trustworthy guys, as all managers do in the playoffs. Still, Duran and Pagán can’t throw every day. When Baldelli has to turn to another bullpen arm, there really isn’t a bad option in the bunch.

Suffice it to say, this hasn’t been the case all year. On the season, Twins relievers rank eighth in the AL with a 3.98 ERA, ninth with 3.2 FanGraphs WAR, and 11th with 36 saves. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, in which they have a 4.27 ERA and 10 blown saves in 28 chances.

However, Minnesota’s bullpen looks completely different today than it has the rest of the year. Indeed, over the last two weeks, they lead the AL with a 2.93 ERA, and that’s without much contribution from Paddack, Stewart, and Maeda. Simply put, the Twins have added by subtraction, replacing their least effective relievers with stronger arms. They cut ties with Jorge López (5.09 ERA) and Dylan Floro (5.29). They optioned Brent Headrick (6.31) and Jordan Balazovic (4.44). Several more relievers are on the 60-day IL, including Jovani Moran (5.31), Jorge Alcala (6.46), and José De León (5.28).

Those seven pitchers threw a total of 175 1/3 innings in relief for the Twins this season; that’s one-third of the team’s bullpen workload. In those innings, they combined for an unsightly 5.39 ERA. To put that in perspective, all other Twins relievers have a 3.29 ERA this year, more than two full runs lower. That’s wider than the gap between the Dodgers’ bullpen (3.41 ERA) and the Rockies’ bullpen (5.31). Meanwhile, the nine relievers who currently make up the Twins’ bullpen have combined for a 2.84 ERA in 276 innings of work.

This team will enter the postseason as an underdog. By winning their division, the Twins are guaranteed to be either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the American League, yet still, they are likely to finish with the worst record in the AL playoff field. On paper, they are the weaker party, whether they’re facing the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Rangers, or the Mariners. That being the case, the Twins must be better than their regular season record suggests if they hope to advance.

It will help if Minnesota gets Carlos Correa, and possibly Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, back in time for the Wild Card series. The lineup could certainly use the star power. Ultimately, however, the relief corps will be this team’s secret weapon. The Twins have more depth and fewer liabilities in the bullpen than at any other point this season. Accordingly, they’ll be counting on their relievers to give them an edge come October.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Activate Chris Paddack

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The Twins announced this morning that the club had activated right-hander Chris Paddack from the 60-day IL. Left-hander Jovani Moran was recalled and placed on the 60-day IL to make way for Paddack on the 40-man roster, while right-hander Josh Winder was optioned to Triple-A to clear space on the active roster.

Paddack, 27, is returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. An eighth-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft, he was shipped to the Padres in exchange for closer Fernando Rodney just one year later. Paddack eventually made his big league debut in 2019 and made a strong impression during his rookie campaign. The youngster posted a 3.33 ERA across 140 2/3 innings of work with a 26.9% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.5%. Things took a turn for a worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as his ERA shot up to 4.73 across 12 starts, thanks in large part to an unbelievable 25% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.

While Paddack’s home run rate came back down to Earth in 2021, his results remained less than stellar. His 5.07 ERA was 23% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and while his career-best 3.78 FIP and a career-low 60.7% strand rate indicated that misfortune could be plaguing Paddack, the righty’s strikeout rate had dipped to just 21.6%, a far cry from the highs of his rookie season. Paddack also dealt with injuries throughout the 2021 campaign, with three trips to the injured list costing him a total of two months.

The struggles led the Padres to move on from Paddack, shipping him to Minnesota ahead of the 2022 season alongside right-hander Emilio Pagan in exchange for lefty Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. Paddack looked to have better days on the horizon through five starts with his new club, as he posted a 4.03 ERA and 3.18 FIP across 22 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for both Paddack and the Twins, the righty would subsequently require surgery that would wipe out the remainder of his 2022 season and the entire 2023 campaign to this point. Of course, the injury woes didn’t stop the sides from coming together on a three-year pact this offseason that bought out what otherwise would have been his first free agent year.

Now back on the mound in the big leagues, Paddack is expected to work out of the bullpen for the Twins down the stretch and into the postseason, though after stretching out to 60 pitches in the minors, it’s certainly plausible that he could provide Minnesota with rotation depth or a piggyback starter in the playoffs, should the club wind up in a pinch at some point. Looking ahead to 2024, Paddack seems poised to be in the mix for the club’s rotation alongside Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan following the impending departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda via free agency.

Moran, 26, posted a 5.31 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work for the Twins this season but hasn’t appeared in the majors since early August. He was placed on the IL in the minor leagues at the end of August with a forearm strain, and evidently will not pitch again this season. As for Winder, the righty has posted a solid 4.15 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work as a long reliever for the Twins this year, his first since converting to the bullpen full time. He could provide the Twins with starting depth throughout their postseason run, but won’t be eligible to return to the regular season roster this year unless he replaces an injured player.

AL Central Notes: Keller, Paddack, Allen

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Royals right-hander Brad Keller spent most of the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, and though he was activated briefly early this month, he quickly found himself back on the shelf due to what the club described as “symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.” His placement back on the IL had already ended his 2023 season, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star) that Keller has indeed been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Quatraro added that Keller has not yet decided a course of action regarding his injury and figures to decide in the coming days about his path forward.

It’s brutal news for Keller, who is poised to depart the Royals for free agency once the 2023 season comes to a close. Keller looked to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the early seasons of his career, posting a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 360 1/3 innings of work between 2018 and 2020. Unfortunately, he’s suffered a significant downturn in production since then, with a 5.14 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 314 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. In that time, Keller’s walk rate crept up to 11.5%, well above the 9.1% figure he posted in the first three seasons of his career. While Keller was striking out more batters as well, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the additional walks, to say nothing of a sustained spike in the percentage of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs in recent years. After posting an HR/FB of just 8% in the first three years of his career, that number spiked to 13% the last three seasons.

With less than two months until free agency figures to open, Keller faces a significant degree of uncertainty about the future of his career after spending his entire major league career to this point with the Royals. Surgery to correct TOS has rarely seen players return to the majors and enjoy success, with Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer among the arms who have seen their careers impacted by the procedure in recent years. One example of a player who has returned effectively is Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly, who stands as a prime example of the fact that not all types of TOS have the same long-term outlook.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins could welcome right-hander Chris Paddack back to the major league roster as soon as tomorrow, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Paddack, 27, has been on the IL since last spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has long been been considered a possible late-season option for Minnesota’s pitching staff. It seems that possibility is on the verge of coming to fruition, with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that Paddack is expected to contribute as a reliever out of the bullpen rather than a member of the rotation upon being activated. Paddack looked impressive in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, where the righty struck out five on two hits and a walk across three scoreless innings of work.
  • The Guardians have placed left-hander Logan Allen on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation, per MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. The move brings an end to Allen’s rookie season. It was an impressive start to the young southpaw’s career, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.20 FIP across 24 starts with the Guardians this year. Allen and fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are the latest young arms to slide into the club’s rotation from their farm system, and figure to join more established arms like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie as quality rotation options as Cleveland looks ahead to the 2024 campaign.

Chris Paddack Expected To Begin Rehab Assignment This Week

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Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is in line to begin a rehab stint on Wednesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. He’ll go three innings in his first game action in 16 months.

Paddack underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last May. He began working off a mound 13 months later and has gradually built his throwing program since that point. The Twins have maintained throughout that process that they hoped to get him back for the stretch run.

Last week, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote that Paddack was targeting a bullpen return. That’s not surprising, as a relief role would reduce the amount of time Paddack needs to spend rehabbing as he builds toward a less demanding job. It’s also arguably more beneficial for the Twins generally. Minnesota’s rotation has been among the league’s best, while the bullpen is roughly league average.

Acquired from the Padres on Opening Day 2022, Paddack was limited to five starts during his first season with Minnesota. He has 66 MLB appearances (65 starts) over parts of four campaigns, pitching to a 4.20 ERA through 330 1/3 innings. His production dipped over his three years in San Diego, but he’d run an impressive 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his limited time with the Twins before the elbow procedure.

In other injury news, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Byron Buxton was staying with the team for treatment on his right knee (relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Buxton had started a rehab stint last Wednesday as he works back from a hamstring strain. Knee concerns have bothered him all year, with the Twins keeping him at designated hitter as a result.

Buxton saw his first game action in center field during a brief rehab stint with Triple-A St. Paul before reporting the renewed knee soreness. Baldelli left open the possibility of again trying Buxton in center field once he’s ready to get back to game action.

Twins Notes: Paddack, Lewis, Kirilloff, Jeffers

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Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is making progress in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, per The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Hayes relays that, according to Twins training staff, Paddack is around ten days away from facing live hitters for the first time since he went under the knife last May.

Initially, Paddack was hoping to return to the big league mound this month, though given the time he’ll need to spend building up stamina after graduating to facing live hitters, it’s hardly a surprise that timeline was more recently pushed back to sometime in September, with the distinct possibility that return will have to come out of the bullpen rather than as a member of the rotation. While sixteen months away from the majors following Tommy John surgery is a certainly a longer rehab process than has become the norm in recent years, it’s worth remembering that this is Paddack’s second surgery, as he also went under the knife as a prospect back in 2016.

Regardless of if Paddack ultimately makes it back to pitch for the Twins this year, the 27-year-old hurler figures to be a key piece of Minnesota’s pitching staff in the long term. The Twins agreed to a three-year deal with Paddack this past offseason that guaranteed him $12.5MM while buying out what otherwise would have been the first year of his free agency. With Paddack locked up through the end of the 2025 season and current rotation pieces Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda both slated for free agency this coming offseason, Paddack figures to join Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Pablo Lopez as part of Minnesota’s rotation of the future.

For his career, Paddack has been a roughly league average starter with a 4.20 ERA (97 ERA+) and a 3.94 FIP in 330 1/3 innings of work. Those career numbers are somewhat hampered by Paddack’s struggles in a pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign and an injury-shortened 2021 season; the Twins are surely hoping that, once fully healthy, Paddack can return to the form he displayed in 2019 when he posted a 3.33 ERA in 140 2/3 innings of work.

Also taking positive steps in his attempt to return from injury is infielder Royce Lewis, who has missed the past month with an oblique strain after starting the season on the injured list while recovering from knee surgery. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, Lewis took batting practice on the field yesterday as he continues to ramp up his rehab process. Nightengale indicates that Lewis could rejoin the Twins’ lineup as soon as this month, though he cautions that Lewis’s return is still a matter of weeks away rather than days.

Lewis’s return would surely provide a major boost to a Twins lineup that has suffered a variety of injuries throughout the season, with Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, and Jose Miranda all currently joining Lewis on the shelf. In 26 games this season, the talented youngster has slashed .326/.354/.474 that’s good for a 131 wRC+. That figure would represent a massive upgrade over the club’s current production at the hot corner, as Twins third basemen have combined for a wRC+ of just 90 this season with a 0.7 fWAR that ranks bottom ten in the majors.

While Minnesota’s lineup has received encouraging news on Lewis, the same cannot be said regarding first baseman Alex Kirilloff, who went on the injured list with a shoulder strain at the end of July. Per MLB.com, Kirilloff, who previously underwent an MRI and received a cortisone injection in his ailing shoulder, “was still in the resting and strengthening phase of his recovery” yesterday, with no clear timetable for return. The 25 year old was enjoying something of a breakout season at the plate prior to his injury, locking down first base for the Twins with a slash line of .270/.357/.442 (124 wRC+) in 258 trips to the plate this season.

With Kirilloff on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Twins have needed to look elsewhere in the lineup for offensive production. Fortunately for the club, they’ve found it in the bat of 26-year-old catcher Ryan Jeffers. While he’s played just 63 games this season thanks to sharing time behind the dish with offseason acquisition Christian Vazquez, Jeffers has slashed a phenomenal .292/.392/.503 (152 wRC+) in 203 trips to the plate this season. That production has seemingly earned Jeffers additional playing time, as The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman relays that manager Rocco Baldelli has indicated Jeffers will receive starts at DH while Buxton is on the shelf in addition to his usual timeshare with Vazquez.

Injury Notes: Lowe, Paddack, Thompson, Suarez

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The Rays placed second baseman Brandon Lowe on the 10-day injured list earlier this week. While the club initially announced his injury as lower back inflammation, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets that Lowe has a disc herniation. Manager Kevin Cash said before tonight’s game Lowe will be shut down from all baseball activities for two to three weeks.

It’ll clearly be more than a minimal stay for the power-hitting infielder. Lowe will need some time to ramp up once he can again begin working out, and the absence is significant enough he’ll probably require a minor league rehab assignment. Given that timeline, it doesn’t seem out of the question Lowe is out of MLB action through the All-Star Break. It’s the second straight season in which his back has given him problems. Lowe’s 2022 campaign was cut short by a lower back issue in mid-September.

The Rays figure to rotate a number of players through the keystone in his absence. Vidal Bruján started the first two games there after Lowe’s IL placement. The Rays kicked Taylor Walls over from third base tonight, penciling Isaac Paredes in at the hot corner.

A few other health updates from around the game:

  • The Twins have been without Chris Paddack since he underwent a second career Tommy John procedure last May. The right-hander has maintained a goal of returning for the stretch run this season. That still seems to be on track, as Paddack began throwing off a mound last week (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s shooting for a big league return in September, though it’s possible that’ll have to be in relief to accelerate his build-up. Acquired from the Padres on the eve of Opening Day last year, Paddack has made just five starts as a Twin. Nevertheless, the organization guaranteed him $12.25MM to buy out his first year of would-be free agency (2025) over the offseason.
  • Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson landed on the 10-day injured list with a left oblique strain over the weekend. Manager Dave Roberts initially pegged his expected absence around a month, though it seems that was a bit optimistic. Roberts told reporters this evening that Thompson is likely to miss beyond 30 days (via Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times). It’s not expected to be a season-ending injury but there wasn’t any further clarity on the timeline. It seems possible he’ll wind up on the 60-day injured list if L.A. needs a 40-man roster spot in the coming weeks. The Dodgers called up rookie Jonny DeLuca to take Thompson’s spot on the MLB roster.
  • The Angels have been without starter José Suarez for a month on account of a strain in his throwing shoulder. It doesn’t seem the southpaw is particularly close to a return, as Sam Blum of the Athletic wrote yesterday that Suarez had yet to begin throwing. There’s not a clear timetable for when he might start working off a mound, although Blum adds that he has been working out at the team’s Arizona complex. A reliable #4 starter for the past few years, Suarez has had a nightmarish 2023. He was tagged for a 9.62 ERA over six appearances before he landed on the shelf.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Twins Sign Chris Paddack To Extension

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On Wednesday evening, the Twins announced a three-year contract with right-hander Chris Paddack. The deal covers his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility and buys out what would’ve been his first free agent season in 2025. Paddack reportedly receives a $2.5MM salary for the coming season. He’ll be guaranteed $2.525MM in 2024 and $7.5MM during the ’25 campaign. The Boras Corporation client would earn an additional $500K for reaching both 140 and 150 innings in 2025, with another $750K available at the 160 and 170-inning thresholds.

Paddack, who turned 27 earlier this month, was acquired by the Twins last April in a deal with the Padres that also saw Taylor Rogers and Emilio Pagan change uniforms. Unfortunately for the Twins, Paddack managed just 22 1/3 innings with the club before he landed on the injured list with an elbow issue. Paddack later underwent Tommy John surgery in May, with August 2023 as the reported target for his return to big league play.

Paddack was an instant success in his 2019 debut season with the Padres, posting a 3.33 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.95 FIP across 26 starts and racked up 153 strikeouts in just 140 2/3 innings of work. The shortened 2020 season saw him struggle mightily, however, as his ERA ballooned to 4.73 (89 ERA+) and his FIP similarly rose to 5.02 across 59 innings. One factor in this was his ghastly HR/FB rate of 25.0%, nearly double his 14.6% rate from 2019.

His home run rate returned to normal in 2021, but Paddack continued to struggle. In 108 1/3 innings in 2021, Paddack posted an ERA of 5.07 (77 ERA+), the worst of his career. Paddack’s 3.72 FIP in 2021 indicates that there may have been some bad luck built into those results, but there was reason for concern nonetheless: his strikeout rate had plummeted. After striking out 9.8 batters per 9 in his debut 2019 season, that rate dipped to 8.8 in 2020 and then dipped again in 2021, all the way down to 8.2, good for a strikeout rate in just the 35th percentile that year.

Of course, it should be noted that Paddack struggled with injuries throughout the 2021 season, which certainly could have impacted his performance. Paddack spent over two months on the injured list in 2021 across three separate IL stints, suggesting he may not have been fully healthy even when he was on the mound that season. Between his youth and injury history, there’s reason to believe Paddack could return to a form more in line with his 2019 debut once he’s fully healthy, an outcome the Twins are betting on with this deal.

In extending Paddack, the Twins provide the right-hander with some security during his rehab process and return to the pitcher’s mound, while buying themselves an extra year of team control for a pitcher with substantial upside. Should Paddack return to the mound late in the season, he will join a somewhat full rotation mix that currently includes Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober. With that being said, Gray, Mahle, and Maeda are all set to hit the free agent market following the 2023, leaving Paddack as a likely key cog in Minnesota’s 2024 rotation.

With four years of service time, Paddack was set to be eligible for arbitration both this offseason and next, with MLBTR contributor Matt Schwartz having projected him for $2.4MM during this round of arbitration. With this deal, Paddack forgoes a potential raise through the arbitration process next year in addition to a year of free agency, though he is still set hit the market at age 30 following the 2025 campaign. A cost-controlled starter like Paddack is a huge boon to Minnesota’s payroll flexibility going forward- while their projected payroll for the 2024 season is just $65MM per RosterResource (prior to the inclusion of arb-eligible players on the roster), the Twins are, as previously mentioned, set to lose three members of their rotation this offseason, potentially in addition to two starting outfielders in Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. While youngsters like Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach could step up in the outfield, it seems almost certain that the Twins will have to supplement their core in free agency next year. Cost certainty with Paddack could help them be more aggressive in making those additions and maximizing the early years of Carlos Correa’s new six-year deal with the club.

Matt Braun of Twins Daily was first to report the Twins and Paddack had agreed to a three-year contract. Dan Hayes of the Athletic was first with the $12.5MM guarantee. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the salary breakdown. The Associated Press was first with the specifics of the incentives.

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