Twins Rumors: Lewis, Santana, Paddack
The Twins are contemplating a full-time move to second base for young infielder Royce Lewis, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Minnesota briefly experimented with Lewis shifting from third base to second base late in the season, but a more permanent move is under consideration. Making the shift at the beginning of a season, when Lewis has an entire spring training exhibition schedule to acclimate to his new defensive environs, would presumably benefit the 25-year-old slugger as opposed to last year’s on-the-fly look, when Lewis logged only eight innings at the position.
Lewis is just one piece of a crowded infield puzzle in Minnesota. The former No. 1 overall pick and top prospect has been playing third base in deference to Carlos Correa but was drafted as a shortstop. From the time he was drafted in 2017, some scouts have questioned whether he’d stick at shortstop or move to third base, second base or perhaps center field. A pair of ACL tears in the same knee in consecutive seasons has probably impacted that decision for the organization as well.
In addition to Lewis and Correa, the Twins will be looking to juggle playing time between top prospect Brooks Lee (the No. 8 overall pick in 2022), Edouard Julien (who posted terrific rookie numbers in ’23 before struggling in ’24), Jose Miranda (who rebounded nicely from a 2023 season ruined by shoulder surgery) and utilityman Willi Castro (.251/.334/.395 with 21 homers, 47 steals in 282 games with the Twins).
Carlos Santana‘s potential departure in free agency and the surprising retirement of injury-plagued former top prospect Alex Kirilloff opens some at-bats at first base, which could be handled by Julien and/or Miranda. Lee, considered a better defender at third base than Lewis, would presumably be in line for the bulk of the playing time at the hot corner if he makes the roster. Lee missed considerable time with injury and struggled in his first taste of the big leagues last year, however, so if he opens the season in Triple-A, that’d leave Miranda and Julien to share the corners early in the season, with Castro (who has extensive outfield experience as well) mixing in all over the field. The Twins also have fast-rising prospect Luke Keaschall to consider; the 2023 second-rounder has played second, third, first and center field in the minors and currently ranks 39th on Baseball America’s ranking of the game’s top 100 prospects.
One option the Twins could explore, of course, is a reunion with Santana. The 39-year-old switch-hitter is aiming to play at least three or four more seasons and by all accounts quite enjoyed his time in Minnesota. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently told the Twins beat that he’s not ruling out the possibility, even if it would “create some other changes that we have to consider on the roster” (link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Santana hit .238/.328/.420 with 23 home runs and won a Gold Glove at first base in 2024 after signing a one-year, $5.25MM deal in Minnesota.
It’s possible that the glut of infield talent could lead a trade of some variety this offseason, though given the team’s payroll situation, trades of veterans on somewhat notable salaries are considered likelier. That could include Castro, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.2MM in his final season of club control, but there are other areas where the Twins have notable salaries they could shed. Catcher Christian Vazquez and his $10MM salary are one option, and Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote recently that there’s an expectation that righty Chris Paddack will also garner some calls this winter. (We ranked Paddack 16th on our list of MLB’s top trade candidates heading into the offseason.)
Paddack, 29 in January, is signed through the 2025 season and will earn a $7.5MM salary next year. He returned for his first full season following a second career Tommy John surgery in 2024 and pitched 88 1/3 innings with a 4.99 ERA. That’s not a flattering number, but a substantial portion of the damage against Paddack came in one nightmare outing where he yielded nine runs in 5 1/3 innings to the Orioles in April. From that point forth, he posted a 4.38 ERA with a solid 22.3% strikeout rate and excellent 5.1% walk rate. He spent the final two months of the season on the injured list due to a forearm strain.
A former top prospect who looked on the cusp of stardom after a dominant rookie season when he gave the Padres 140 2/3 of 3.33 ERA ball with plus strikeout and walk rates, Paddack is still something of a project even as he approaches his 29th birthday. That said, he’s younger than most free agent pitchers and paid roughly in line with what might be expected of an older reclamation project. For instance, Alex Wood ($8.5MM), Wade Miley ($8.5MM) and James Paxton ($7MM) all signed one-year deals in this range coming off injury-shortened seasons of their own last winter.
Paddack’s deal may not be teeming with surplus value, but the Twins also might not need to eat any money in a trade. Dealing him would thin out the team’s rotation supply, but the Twins could still pursue some more cost-effective depth arms to complement Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and top prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews, both of whom made their MLB debuts in 2024 (each struggling to varying extents). Prospects Marco Raya and Andrew Morris are also on the near-term horizon.
Latest On Twins’ Offseason Plans
What once seemed to be a promising season for the Twins is coming to a devastating end, as the club was officially eliminated from postseason contention last night after a free fall in the standings spurred on by their brutal 9-16 record so far this September. While Minnesota entered the month with a 91.7% chance to make the postseason according to Fangraphs, they’ll sit on the sidelines this October just one year after breaking a 20-year drought without a victory in the postseason.
With that being said, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic suggested in a report today that both president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and manager Rocco Baldelli (as well as team president Dave St. Peter, who handles business operations for the club) appear unlikely to be let go by the club as things stand. Falvey took the helm of baseball operations for the Twins prior to the 2017 season, and the team has generally been successful during his tenure with four postseason appearances and five seasons with an above .500 record during his eight years with the club’s front office. Meanwhile, Baldelli joined the club prior to the 2019 season and has led the club to three postseason appearances and four over .500 records in his six years in the Minnesota dugout.
That’s not to say no change is coming to the organization, however. According to Gleeman, it’s “expected” that changes will be made this winter that could impact high-ranking members of both the front office and coaching staff. Of note, Gleeman did not report on the status of GM Thad Levine. Levine has served as the #2 to Falvey throughout his tenure with the Twins and seemingly entered the year without a contract for the 2025 season. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Levine depart the club if the Twins were to shake up their front office, particularly given the fact that Levine was a finalist for the top job in Boston last winter before the Red Sox ultimately hired Craig Breslow and could once again look to pursue a top job elsewhere this offseason.
Disappointing as the 2024 season was for Twins fans, it’s fair to point out that the club’s struggles can’t be blamed entirely on the front office or coaching staff. After all, club ownership slashed payroll by $30MM coming off the club’s successful 2023 season, not only forcing the club to enter 2024 without replacing 2023 AL Cy Young finalist Sonny Gray but also leaving them unable to make moves of significance to improve the roster beyond adding veteran first baseman Carlos Santana, a move that needed to be paired with a deal to ship out longtime infielder Jorge Polanco.
Unfortunately for fans in Minnesota, Gleeman suggests there’s little reason to believe payroll will increase headed into 2025. Instead, he notes that the club’s revenue has landed below expectations this year and could prompt even more cuts. That could leave the club needing to trade away veterans on guaranteed contracts over the winter in order to improve other areas of the roster, and Gleeman suggests that right-hander Chris Paddack and catcher Christian Vazquez could be the club’s most expendable pieces if such a situation were to come to pass.
Paddack, 28, returned to the club after Tommy John surgery wiped out nearly all of his 2023 season. He made 17 starts for the Twins this year but struggled with lackluster results, posting a 4.99 ERA despite a solid enough 4.18 FIP. It’s easy to see how Paddack could be an attractive trade piece for pitching-hungry clubs this winter, particularly those with budget constraints of their own. After all, he’s set to make just $7.5MM in 2025. Even back-of-the-rotation arms have typically garnered guarantees north of $10MM on the open market in recent years, so $7.5MM for Paddack could be viewed as a bargain even in spite of injury concerns thanks to the tantalizing upside he flashed during his time with the Padres.
Vazquez, on the other hand, appears unlikely to bring back much outside of salary relief for Minnesota. The 34-year-old veteran entered free agency following the 2022 season with a strong defensive reputation and a solid 95 wRC+ in four years since taking over as the primary catcher in Boston. Unfortunately, things haven’t worked out well since he signed with the Twins on a three-year deal prior to the 2023 season. In Minnesota, Vazquez has hit just .224/.267/.324 (64 wRC+) over the past two years while ceding the regular duties behind the plate to breakout youngster Ryan Jeffers. He still remains a stalwart defender behind the plate, but his lackluster offense and hefty $10MM salary for next year would make him unattractive as a trade candidate unless the Twins were to sweeten the deal with either cash or additional talent.
Twins Activate Carlos Correa From 10-Day Injured List
10:29AM: The Twins have officially announced the moves.
9:14AM: The Twins will activate shortstop Carlos Correa from the 10-day injured list prior to today’s game with the Reds. Outfielder DaShawn Keirsey Jr. will be optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.
It has been over two months since Correa last appeared in Minnesota’s lineup, as the three-time All-Star has been sidelined by plantar fasciitis in his right foot. Correa played through a similar injury in his left foot last season and (not coincidentally) struggled through the worst full season of his 10 years in the majors, so both the shortstop and the Twins seemed intent on letting Correa fully heal up before getting back to action.
Though Correa initially stated that this current injury wasn’t as painful as his 2023 plantar fasciitis, the discomfort has continued to linger until this past week, when Correa told MLB.com and other media that a new treatment method had allowed him to walk and run on his right heel. He took part in a live batting practice session on Friday and emerged feeling good enough that the Twins are now comfortable in making a roster move.
After his down year in 2023, Correa rebounded in a big way with one of his best seasons. The shortstop has 13 home runs and a .308/.377/.520 slash line over 317 plate appearances, and had been named to the All-Star team before his plantar fasciitis prevented him from taking part in the Midsummer Classic. Among all players with 300 or more PA, only 11 players have a higher wRC+ than Correa’s 152 mark.
Byron Buxton also has a 142 wRC+ in 339 PA this season, and the slugger was just activated off Minnesota’s IL on Thursday. Needless to say, the returns of Buxton and Correa are an enormous boost to a struggling Twins club that has lost 16 of its last 24 games. Minnesota still holds a 2.5-game lead over the Tigers for the last AL wild card slot, and the Twins could revive their chances at the AL Central title when they visit the first-place Guardians for a big four-game series that begins on Monday.
Max Kepler might be activated from the injured list for that series in Cleveland, as Kepler (out since September 5 due to patellar tendinitis in his left knee) joined Correa in the live BP session on Friday. Some reinforcements could also be coming later in early October on the pitching side, as Chris Paddack had a 20-pitch bullpen session on Friday as he recovers from a left forearm strain. It has also been two months on the shelf for Paddack, but he told the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale Jr. and other reporters that he is aiming to be ready for relief work during the postseason.
Twins Select Diego Castillo, Michael Helman; Activate Brooks Lee
The Twins announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon as they selected the contracts of right-hander Diego Castillo and utility hitter Michael Helman to the big league roster. The club also placed outfielder Manuel Margot on the 10-day IL and activated infielder Brooks Lee from the 10-day IL. To make room for Castillo and Helman on the 40-man roster, left-hander Caleb Boushley was designated for assignment while right-hander Chris Paddack was transferred to the 60-day IL.
Castillo returns to the Twins for his second stint in the majors this year. The 30-year-old righty signed with Minnesota on a minor league deal over the offseason and was selected to the roster at the end of May. He ultimately made just five appearances for the club before being designated for assignment despite a solid 2.57 ERA thanks to worrying peripherals, highlighted by a 10% strikeout rate and an eye-popping 23.3% walk rate. Castillo elected free agency but returned to the Twins on a fresh minor league deal shortly thereafter, and since then has been pitching for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul.
Even so, the results have not been good. While his numbers at Triple-A have been skewed by a disastrous performance where he surrendered five runs while recording just one out last month, he’s still posted a 4.00 ERA with nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7) in nine innings of work since then. While Castillo was among the more reliable late-inning arms in the game from 2018 to 2022 with a 3.12 ERA and 3.69 FIP over that time, it seems extremely unlikely that he’ll be able to recapture that form down the stretch with Minnesota. That being said, his presence on the roster should allow the club to keep its key relief arms like Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax fresher down the stretch by soaking up lower-leverage innings.
As for Helman, the Twins’ eleventh-round pick in the 2018 draft has steadily worked his way through the minor leagues through his career before starting the season at Triple-A this year and delivering strong results. The 28-year-old has slashed .283/.367/.508 with 13 homers, 15 doubles, and ten steals in just 63 games this year at the level, and he’s done that while splitting time between shortstop, center field, second base, third base, and left field. The versatile defender figures to offer the Twins an interesting combination of power and speed off the bench for the stretch run, and his ability to play all over the field will surely come in handy as the club navigates injuries and rest for its regular players.
Also returning to the majors is Lee, the club’s 23-year-old top prospect who struggled to a somewhat lackluster .253/.309/.333 slash line in 110 trips to the plate at the big league level before going on the IL in early August. Now that he’s back in the majors, Lee figures to feature prominently in the club’s infield mix, though with Royce Lewis locking down third base and Willi Castro performing admirably in place of Carlos Correa at shortstop, it’s not clear whether or not Lee will be able to get regular reps as the Twins look to preserve their 3.5-game lead over the Red Sox for the final AL Wild Card spot.
As for the players moving off the roster to accommodate these additions, Margot’s placement on the IL is hardly a surprise after he suffered an apparent groin strain during last night’s game. After the game, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) that the outfielder was “not moving well” due to the issue and would need to undergo an MRI. The results of that MRI are not yet clear, but they evidently warranted a trip to the IL for the 29-year-old outfielder, who has slashed just .250/.302/.350 in 116 games with the club this year.
Meanwhile, Paddack’s placement on the 60-day IL isn’t necessarily a surprise given the fact that he’s already been on the shelf since mid-July due to a forearm strain. A regular season return has long seemed unlikely for the right-hander, but it’s still possible he could return to action at some point in the postseason depending on how far the Twins make it this season. As for Boushley, the lefty has appeared in just two games for the Twins this year after signing a minor league deal with the club over the offseason, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in four innings of work.
AL Notes: Verlander, Garcia, Buxton, Paddack, Rangers, Skubal
Justin Verlander “felt strong” during a bullpen session today in Houston, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle), which should line Verlander up to return to the rotation on Wednesday when the Astros face the Red Sox. A neck strain has kept Verlander from pitching in the majors since June 9, and he has amassed only 57 innings this season due both this current ailment and a bout of shoulder inflammation coming out of Spring Training. However, Verlander has completed two minor league rehab outings and today’s bullpen session looks like the final checkpoint on his path to recovery.
While things are looking promising for Verlander, Luis Garcia is more of a question mark. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote (via X) that as of Friday, Garcia hadn’t yet resumed throwing since he was shut down due to soreness over two weeks ago. This is the second time Garcia has hit a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and since Garcia went under the knife in May 2023, a normal rehab timeline would’ve had him ready to return to the majors by this point over 15 months past his procedure date. Though the Astros have said Garcia might return as a reliever rather than as a starter, he is running short on time to fully ramp up his readiness to rejoin Houston’s pitching staff in any capacity.
More from around the American League…
- Twins athletic trainer Nick Paparesta updated reporters (including The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) about several injured Minnesota players on Saturday, including Byron Buxton and Chris Paddack. Buxton received a cortisone shot in his inflamed right hip and recently worked out in a pool, so Paparesta feels “we’re kind of heading in the right direction.” This comes as a relief given Buxton’s long history of injury problems, including a more serious hip issue in 2022 that Paparesta feels may have created scar tissue related to Buxton’s current discomfort. As for Paddack, he is set to undergo an MRI on August 27, which will be his second scan since a left forearm strain sent him to the 15-day injured list on July 17. More will be known on Paddack’s timeline if the next MRI comes back clean, and he has already started playing games of catch in preparation to return to Minnesota’s staff before the season is over.
- Three of the Rangers‘ injured veteran starters took steps in their recoveries over the weekend, as Max Scherzer threw a bullpen session today and Jacob deGrom and Jon Gray each threw three-inning simulated games on Saturday. Gray seems to be the closest to returning, as he told MLB.com that he could return as a reliever during the Rangers’ series with the Pirates that begins tomorrow, if he isn’t lined up for a proper start during a series with the Guardians that gets underway Friday. A right groin strain sent Gray to the 15-day IL on July 29, while deGrom could begin a Double-A rehab assignment this week in his first game action since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2023. Scherzer hasn’t pitched since July 30 due to shoulder fatigue, and Texas manager Bruce Bochy said it hasn’t yet been decided if Scherzer will also embark on a rehab assignment next, or if he’ll first take part in a live batting practice session.
- Tarik Skubal had another quality start tonight in the Tigers‘ 3-2 win over the Yankees, as the star southpaw limited New York to one run (on three hits and four walks) over six innings of work. Skubal is up to a career-high 155 1/3 innings pitched, and manager A.J. Hinch told MLB Network’s Jon Morosi and other reporters that Sunday “could very well be his last start on regular rest” this season. Since Detroit is all but out of the wild card race, the team has no real reason to put too many extra miles on Skubal’s arm, though naturally the team isn’t going to shut him down completely as he pursues the AL Cy Young Award.
Twins Showing Interest In Rich Hill
The Twins have been in contact with veteran left-hander Rich Hill, who hosted a showcase for big league scouts earlier today, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The Red Sox were also in attendance for Hill’s showcase, WEEI’s Rob Bradford tweets, though it’s not clear whether they’ve spoken to Hill about a potential reunion. The Yankees and Dodgers were previously connected to Hill and thus presumably also in attendance this morning.
Minnesota’s interest comes at a time when Joe Ryan was just diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder that puts the remainder of his season in jeopardy. Ryan joined righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day IL earlier today, leaving Minnesota with an inexperienced group of options — Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Louie Varland — behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober in the starting rotation.
Hill, 44, has said since last year that his plan for the 2024 season was to pitch — but only in the season’s second half. The southpaw signed a one-year deal with the Pirates in the 2022-23 offseason and pitched well early before beginning to show signs of fatigue. He still managed to eat up 146 1/3 innings between Pittsburgh and San Diego (who acquired him at last year’s trade deadline), but it was generally a tale of two seasons for Hill. The lefty notched a respectable 4.34 ERA and matching FIP through his first 15 starts, punching out 21.1% of his opponents against an 8.6% walk rate. In his final 63 1/3 innings, he was torched for a 6.82 ERA with a 17.7% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9.
Waiting until later in the season affords MLB’s elder statesmen some perks beyond potentially keeping him fresh. Most importantly, Hill has spoken on record before about the additional time he was able to spend with his family, coaching his son’s team (link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Signing in August also ensures that he’s able to land with a club that has a good shot at making the postseason.
Minnesota would fit that bill. The Twins have been in second place in the AL Central and holding onto an AL Wild Card spot for most of the season. At 63-50, the Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the division, but they’re also hosting the Guardians for a four-game set this weekend that would shake up the top of the division if Minnesota can manage a sweep. (They’re currently leading the Guards in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader.)
Hill is no stranger to the Twins organization, having pitched there during the shortened 2020 season. Injuries limited him to eight starts, but he posted a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 innings as a Twin and reached the postseason that year. Bradford spoke to a scout who was at Hill’s showcase this morning, noting that the lefty threw more than 100 pitches and looked “impressive” (X link). Hill himself tells Bradford that he believes he’s built up to the point where he’s ready to go throw five or six innings in a start right now (video link).
Hill isn’t the only reinforcement the Twins are pondering, though second alternative is nearly half Hill’s age. Top prospect Zebby Matthews has skyrocketed up prospect rankings this season on the back of a dominant showing in High-A and Double-A. He was recently bumped up to Triple-A St. Paul, and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey confirmed to the Twins beat that Matthews is under consideration for a promotion to the majors.
“I think Zebby’s definitely in the conversation,” Falvey said this afternoon (X link via KSTP’s Darren Wolfson). “Obviously, he’s pitched exceptionally well for the whole year all the way through levels he’s been at. He’s now at Triple-A and knocking on the door. With the injuries we have, he’s certainly in the conversation. As we think about the needs for next week, he’s certainly a name that we’re talking about.”
Matthews, the Twins’ eighth-round pick in 2022, already looks like a nice find for the organization. The right-hander posted sub-2.00 ERAs in both High-A and Double-A before his recent promotion to Triple-A. He’s had two solid starts and two rough starts at the top minor league level. Collectively, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA with an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and a staggering 1.8% walk rate. Matthews has fanned a hefty 114 opponents and issued just seven walks all season.
Matthews has ridden that breakout season all the way to the No. 61 spot on Baseball America’s recent update to their top 100 prospects, where they note that Matthews has perhaps the best command in minor league baseball. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranks Matthews 60th in the sport, and MLB.com has him as their No. 100 prospect.
Falvey also added that the aforementioned Paddack is still expected back this season. He’s “tracking really well,” per the Twins’ baseball ops leader (X link via The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) and could begin a throwing program in the near future. Paddack has had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, at times looking dominant and others looking fatigued in his first full season back from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He’s twice punched out 10 hitters in a game and allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 17 starts. However, he’s also had starts where he’s been rocked for seven runs and nine runs, leading to a 4.99 ERA on the season.
Paddack’s 88 1/3 innings this season are already more than his combined total from 2022-23 while he underwent and rehabbed from that Tommy John procedure. Nevertheless, the Twins plan to use him as a starter when he’s ready to return, per Falvey. There’s no clear timetable for that yet, but if he can begin a throwing progression soon, a return sometime next month seems feasible. Paddack last pitched on July 14 and has been out since with a forearm strain.
Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On Injured List
The Twins announced this afternoon that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list. Correa heads to the 10-day IL due to right plantar fasciitis, retroactive to July 16. Paddack, meanwhile is heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 17) with a right forearm strain. In corresponding moves, second baseman Edouard Julien has been recalled from Triple-A, while utility bat Austin Martin has been activated from the IL.
That Correa is dealing with a bout of plantar fasciitis in his right foot isn’t news, as it was announced prior to the All-Star Break that the shortstop would not participate in the All-Star game due to the issue. It seems he’ll need additional time to rest his ailing foot, however, as he’s now shelved until at least July 26. Plantar fasciitis is generally considered to be a matter of pain tolerance, so it’s unlikely that Correa will remain shelved until it’s fully healed. Even so, it’s not necessarily a surprise that he and the Twins are taking the issue seriously given his struggles while playing through the issue in his left foot last year. While Correa played in 135 games last year, he posted a below-average 96 wRC+ while defensive metrics suggested that his typically excellent defense at shortstop slipped.
That decline in performance while playing through the injury clearly suggested to the Twins and Correa that it would be best for everyone if he took additional time to rest his ailing foot before returning to the lineup, though it’s worth noting that manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Correa’s absence isn’t expected to require “several weeks to a month,” with the club anticipating his return sooner than that. For now, however, Correa has received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his foot and will look to recover while Gleeman relays that Willi Castro will get the majority of reps at shortstop in his absence.
With Castro handling shortstop on a regular basis and Brooks Lee covering for the injured Royce Lewis at third base, the Twins are calling on Julien to take back over at the keystone. The 25-year-old posted a pedestrian 97 wRC+ in his sophomore season across 58 games before being optioned down to the minors, where he has subsequently impressed with a 114 wRC+ and an eye-popping 21.2% walk rate. Julien will be joined by Martin, who can provide a right-handed complement to him at second base while also backing up the club’s outfield mix.
As for Paddack, the right-hander’s first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery has been a difficult one. He’s battled injury issues to make 17 starts this season, although even when healthy enough to take the mound he’s struggled to a 4.99 ERA despite solid peripherals such as a 4.19 FIP and a 4.09 SIERA. In spite of those peripherals, however, Paddack’s performance has seen him strike out a career-low 20.6% of batters faced while generating less grounders than ever before, a clip of just 37.3%. While forearm issues are somewhat alarming for a pitcher who has already gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery twice, Baldelli suggested to reporters (including Gleeman) that the club isn’t particularly concerned, believing that the problem is a muscle strain that will heal up with rest.
Even if Paddack is back in action in relatively short order, however, the news only exacerbates Minnesota’s obvious need for help in the starting rotation. While Joe Ryan has impressed as a front-of-the-rotation option and Bailey Ober‘s typical mid-rotation production is as steady as ever, Pablo Lopez has surprisingly struggled after entering the season as the club’s ace following the departure of Sonny Gray over the winter while Louie Varland struggled enough in the fifth starter role to be demoted to Triple-A. Simeon Woods-Richardson has done well in Varland’s place, but with the likes of Varland and rookie Dave Festa as the best options to step into Paddack’s rotation spot, it’s easy to see why the Twins are reportedly looking into rental starters ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.
Twins Notes: Paddack, Festa, Canterino, Bullpen
The Twins placed righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to fatigue in his right shoulder, but the right-hander made clear in a follow-up interview that he’s not concerned about any potential injury (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). “This isn’t pain or discomfort,” said Paddack, who’s in his first season full season back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. “This is fatigue.”
Paddack expanded that while his general approach is that he wants the ball at every opportunity, he also felt the need to listen to his body and “not be a hero” after a recent dip in his fastball velocity and feelings of a “dead arm.” The 28-year-old righty has tossed 78 1/3 innings this season — already his most since 2021 and in fact more than he pitched in 2022-23 combined (majors and minor league rehab work included). Some fatigue and workload management was to be expected, and the recent drop in velocity prompted the team to make a move.
Notably, Nightengale adds that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed Paddack will return to the rotation once he’s reinstated from the injured list. There’s no plan to shift the right-hander to a relief role at this time, though he thrived in that setting down the stretch and in the postseason with the Twins last year when he tossed a combined 8 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with a hefty 14 strikeouts. Paddack’s fastball sat at a career-high 95.5 mph last year in relief, per Statcast, and he was frequently touching the upper 90s in the playoffs.
Perhaps a return to that role could be in play down the line (speculatively speaking), but the organization will continue starting him for now. Paddack has a 5.29 ERA in 15 starts, due largely to a pair of ugly outings at Camden Yards (nine runs) and at Yankee Stadium (seven runs).
In the short term, the Twins will need to plug someone into the fifth spot in their rotation. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that Minnesota will start reliever Ryan Jensen today at Triple-A instead of top prospect David Festa, presumably setting the stage for Festa to make his big league debut tomorrow in Arizona. (Note: I misread the team’s game log yesterday and incorrectly wrote that Festa had pitched too recently to be an option; my apologies for the error.)
The 24-year-old Festa has been sharp in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a strong 45.5% grounder rate. While his walk rate could stand to come down a few ticks, it’s worth pointing out that Festa has improved considerably in that regard as the season has progressed. After walking an alarming 20% of his opponents through his first four starts, he’s slashed his walk rate to 6.7% — including zero walks over his past two outings. His strikeout rate has improved a bit as he’s honed his command, sitting at 37.3% in his 10 most recent outings.
Festa is considered one of the Twins’ best — if not their best — pitching prospects. He sits at No. 99 on MLB.com’s recently updated top-100 list and is the game’s No. 93 prospect over at FanGraphs. He’s been a nice development story for the Twins as a 13th-round pick in 2021 who signed for a $125K bonus. Minnesota will need to add Festa to the 40-man roster if he is indeed called upon for his debut, but they have an open spot at the moment anyhow (and righty Brock Stewart has already been on the 15-day IL for nearly 60 days in the event that they need a second space anytime soon).
While Festa’s progress toward the big leagues is a big positive, the Twins’ former top pitching prospect, Matt Canterino, has had yet another setback, per Nightengale. The 26-year-old righty is headed for an MRI on his shoulder after experiencing discomfort in a recent bullpen session. Canterino, the No. 54 overall pick back in 2019, has dominated minor league opponents when healthy, evidenced by a career 1.48 ERA and 39.1% strikeout rate since being drafted.
Unfortunately, between the pandemic-canceled 2020 season and repeated injuries, he’s only been able to pitch 85 innings in total. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has yet to get back into a minor league game since that time. He’s on the Twins’ 40-man roster and is in the first of three minor league option years, so they needn’t yet consider cutting him loose to open a spot, but it’s another frustrating setback for the talented but oft-injured righty.
There’s better news on a pair of injured Twins relievers, however. The aforementioned Stewart pitched a bullpen session three days ago and will do so again today and on the 29th, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The former Dodgers prospect has been a revelation since joining the Twins on a minor league deal, pitching 41 innings of relief with a 0.66 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate dating back to last season. He’s been out since early May with a shoulder injury.
As for righty Justin Topa, whom the Twins acquired in the offseason Jorge Polanco trade, he’s slated to throw a bullpen session in early July, per Park. The right-hander suffered a 25% tear of the patellar tendon in his knee during spring training, Park notes, but was recommended for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rest rather than surgery. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta detailed that Topa will then ramp up through the All-Star break before being reevaluated. A second-half return remains in play for the righty, who pitched 69 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Mariners in 2023 and is under team control with the Twins through 2026.
Twins Place Chris Paddack On Injured List
The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. Right-hander Ronny Henriquez has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in his place. Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that Paddack informed the team after his most recent start that he’s been experiencing a dead arm recently.
Some fatigue for Paddack should come as little surprise. The 28-year-old righty pitched only 18 1/3 innings last year (minors and postseason included) in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery — a procedure that limited him to just 22 1/3 frames that season. He’s already surpassed his combined 2022-23 innings total with this year’s 78 1/3 frames.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Paddack in his first full year since his second career Tommy John surgery. Overall, his 5.29 ERA looks rather grim, but that number is heavily skewed by two disastrous outings: a nine-run drubbing in Baltimore during his third start of the season and a seven-run showing at Yankee Stadium earlier this month. On the other end of the spectrum, Paddack has a pair of 10-strikeout gems this season. He’s been a boom-or-bust option for manager Rocco Baldelli throughout the year, but Paddack will take a seat for at least the next two weeks after yielding a combined eight runs in his past seven innings of work across two starts (both of which came against a lackluster Oakland lineup).
With Paddack on the shelf, the Twins will have an opening in the fifth spot of the rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Paddack’s spot is set to come up on Thursday, though the Twins just had an off-day, which could allow them to start Ober on regular rest that day. St. Paul righties Caleb Boushley and Randy Dobnak would also be on full rest (Dobnak would need to be added to the 40-man roster) if the Twins want to give Ober an extra day after throwing a complete game his last time out.
Other depth options like Louie Varland and top prospect David Festa both pitched within the past couple days, likely ruling them out for Thursday — but either could be an option for subsequent starts, depending on how long Paddack is out. There’s no timetable for Paddack’s return at present, though the lack of a strain or any other notable injury doesn’t create immediate concern of a protracted absence. The right-hander is in the second season of a three-year, $12.5MM extension he signed while rehabbing from that Tommy John procedure. That deal bought out Paddack’s final two arbitration seasons as well as his first free-agent year.
Twins Expect To Add At Least One Starting Pitcher
Much of the focus of the Twins’ offseason thus far has been on their intent to scale back payroll amid the collapse of their RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports, and potential trades of veterans like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez. However, while all of those storylines remain valid, the Twins’ desire to reduce payroll doesn’t preclude them from spending at all. Minnesota has a projected payroll of about $125MM right now and figures to end up in the $125-135MM range. Trades of Kepler ($10MM salary in 2024), Polanco ($10.5MM), Farmer ($6.6MM projected salary) and/or Vazquez ($10MM) could leave them with room for some spending.
To that end, it’s worth highlighting that both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic have written this week that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter. That’s not likely to be a top-of-the-market name but rather someone to compete with Louie Varland for the final spot in the rotation, Nightengale suggests. Minnesota also hopes to bring in a second veteran arm (if not more) on a minor league deal, Hayes adds.
As it stands, even with the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota has a respectable front five. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and the aforementioned Varland are currently at the top of the depth chart, with minor league arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick and yet-to-debut prospects David Festa and Matt Canterino (who missed the 2023 season due rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery) next in line.
It’s a nice group of arms, but Paddack figures to be on an innings count in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. He looked excellent in 8 2/3 innings of bullpen work late in the regular season and during the playoffs, but overall he pitched just 18 1/3 frames between his minor league rehab stint, brief regular-season return, and that playoff showing. He pitched 22 1/3 innings the year prior.
The Twins don’t yet know how many innings they can count on from Paddack, but it’ll surely be fewer than his career-high 140 2/3 frames. Even reaching 100 frames would have to be considered a success, given his recent lack of innings. All four of their other starters topped 140 innings in 2023 (Triple-A time for Varland and Ober included), but the Twins can’t presume each of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland will be healthy enough for 30-plus appearances for a second straight season in 2024 (again, including Triple-A time for the latter two). They’re also losing a combined 288 1/3 innings from the departures of Gray and Maeda.
Even if the Twins can safely be crossed off the list of expected suitors for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and the like, there are plenty of experienced arms who could slot into the mix in the final two rotation spots. A veteran like Wade Miley would provide steady innings on a short-term deal. The Twins could also pursue an upside/rebound play like Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas, the latter of whom they targeted in trades a couple years back. On the lower end of the salary spectrum, the Twins’ existing depth makes them a reasonable candidate to roll the dice on former top prospect and reigning KBO MVP Erick Fedde, who’s eyeing a possible MLB return. In general, it’s a deep class of free-agent pitchers. It’s also plausible that they could acquire a younger back-of-the-rotation candidate in a deal involving one of those previously mentioned trade candidates, simultaneously bolstering depth and scaling back payroll in the process.
The Twins probably aren’t going to be major free-agent players this offseason, as they’ve been in the past couple winters, but between their pursuit of some additional innings/rotation depth and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey’s recent acknowledgment that he’ll likely explore the first base market, Minnesota could still be active in the middle and lower tiers of free agency — in addition to their expected activity on the trade market.