Chris Paddack

AL Notes: Verlander, Garcia, Buxton, Paddack, Rangers, Skubal

By Mark Polishuk | August 18, 2024 at 10:34pm CDT

Justin Verlander “felt strong” during a bullpen session today in Houston, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle), which should line Verlander up to return to the rotation on Wednesday when the Astros face the Red Sox. A neck strain has kept Verlander from pitching in the majors since June 9, and he has amassed only 57 innings this season due both this current ailment and a bout of shoulder inflammation coming out of Spring Training. However, Verlander has completed two minor league rehab outings and today’s bullpen session looks like the final checkpoint on his path to recovery.

While things are looking promising for Verlander, Luis Garcia is more of a question mark. The Athletic’s Chandler Rome wrote (via X) that as of Friday, Garcia hadn’t yet resumed throwing since he was shut down due to soreness over two weeks ago. This is the second time Garcia has hit a setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, and since Garcia went under the knife in May 2023, a normal rehab timeline would’ve had him ready to return to the majors by this point over 15 months past his procedure date. Though the Astros have said Garcia might return as a reliever rather than as a starter, he is running short on time to fully ramp up his readiness to rejoin Houston’s pitching staff in any capacity.

Twins Showing Interest In Rich Hill

By Steve Adams | August 9, 2024 at 3:07pm CDT

The Twins have been in contact with veteran left-hander Rich Hill, who hosted a showcase for big league scouts earlier today, reports Dan Hayes of The Athletic. The Red Sox were also in attendance for Hill’s showcase, WEEI’s Rob Bradford tweets, though it’s not clear whether they’ve spoken to Hill about a potential reunion. The Yankees and Dodgers were previously connected to Hill and thus presumably also in attendance this morning.

Minnesota’s interest comes at a time when Joe Ryan was just diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of the teres major muscle in his right shoulder that puts the remainder of his season in jeopardy. Ryan joined righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day IL earlier today, leaving Minnesota with an inexperienced group of options — Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Louie Varland — behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober in the starting rotation.

Hill, 44, has said since last year that his plan for the 2024 season was to pitch — but only in the season’s second half. The southpaw signed a one-year deal with the Pirates in the 2022-23 offseason and pitched well early before beginning to show signs of fatigue. He still managed to eat up 146 1/3 innings between Pittsburgh and San Diego (who acquired him at last year’s trade deadline), but it was generally a tale of two seasons for Hill. The lefty notched a respectable 4.34 ERA and matching FIP through his first 15 starts, punching out 21.1% of his opponents against an 8.6% walk rate. In his final 63 1/3 innings, he was torched for a 6.82 ERA with a 17.7% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 1.71 HR/9.

Waiting until later in the season affords MLB’s elder statesmen some perks beyond potentially keeping him fresh. Most importantly, Hill has spoken on record before about the additional time he was able to spend with his family, coaching his son’s team (link via MLB.com’s Ian Browne). Signing in August also ensures that he’s able to land with a club that has a good shot at making the postseason.

Minnesota would fit that bill. The Twins have been in second place in the AL Central and holding onto an AL Wild Card spot for most of the season. At 63-50, the Twins are 3.5 games behind Cleveland in the division, but they’re also hosting the Guardians for a four-game set this weekend that would shake up the top of the division if Minnesota can manage a sweep. (They’re currently leading the Guards in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader.)

Hill is no stranger to the Twins organization, having pitched there during the shortened 2020 season. Injuries limited him to eight starts, but he posted a 3.03 ERA in 38 2/3 innings as a Twin and reached the postseason that year. Bradford spoke to a scout who was at Hill’s showcase this morning, noting that the lefty threw more than 100 pitches and looked “impressive” (X link). Hill himself tells Bradford that he believes he’s built up to the point where he’s ready to go throw five or six innings in a start right now (video link).

Hill isn’t the only reinforcement the Twins are pondering, though second alternative is nearly half Hill’s age. Top prospect Zebby Matthews has skyrocketed up prospect rankings this season on the back of a dominant showing in High-A and Double-A. He was recently bumped up to Triple-A St. Paul, and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey confirmed to the Twins beat that Matthews is under consideration for a promotion to the majors.

“I think Zebby’s definitely in the conversation,” Falvey said this afternoon (X link via KSTP’s Darren Wolfson). “Obviously, he’s pitched exceptionally well for the whole year all the way through levels he’s been at. He’s now at Triple-A and knocking on the door. With the injuries we have, he’s certainly in the conversation. As we think about the needs for next week, he’s certainly a name that we’re talking about.”

Matthews, the Twins’ eighth-round pick in 2022, already looks like a nice find for the organization. The right-hander posted sub-2.00 ERAs in both High-A and Double-A before his recent promotion to Triple-A. He’s had two solid starts and two rough starts at the top minor league level. Collectively, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA with an impressive 30.5% strikeout rate and a staggering 1.8% walk rate. Matthews has fanned a hefty 114 opponents and issued just seven walks all season.

Matthews has ridden that breakout season all the way to the No. 61 spot on Baseball America’s recent update to their top 100 prospects, where they note that Matthews has perhaps the best command in minor league baseball. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranks Matthews 60th in the sport, and MLB.com has him as their No. 100 prospect.

Falvey also added that the aforementioned Paddack is still expected back this season. He’s “tracking really well,” per the Twins’ baseball ops leader (X link via The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) and could begin a throwing program in the near future. Paddack has had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season, at times looking dominant and others looking fatigued in his first full season back from the second Tommy John procedure of his career. He’s twice punched out 10 hitters in a game and allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 17 starts. However, he’s also had starts where he’s been rocked for seven runs and nine runs, leading to a 4.99 ERA on the season.

Paddack’s 88 1/3 innings this season are already more than his combined total from 2022-23 while he underwent and rehabbed from that Tommy John procedure. Nevertheless, the Twins plan to use him as a starter when he’s ready to return, per Falvey. There’s no clear timetable for that yet, but if he can begin a throwing progression soon, a return sometime next month seems feasible. Paddack last pitched on July 14 and has been out since with a forearm strain.

Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On Injured List

By Nick Deeds | July 20, 2024 at 4:22pm CDT

The Twins announced this afternoon that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list. Correa heads to the 10-day IL due to right plantar fasciitis, retroactive to July 16. Paddack, meanwhile is heading to the 15-day IL (retroactive to July 17) with a right forearm strain. In corresponding moves, second baseman Edouard Julien has been recalled from Triple-A, while utility bat Austin Martin has been activated from the IL.

That Correa is dealing with a bout of plantar fasciitis in his right foot isn’t news, as it was announced prior to the All-Star Break that the shortstop would not participate in the All-Star game due to the issue. It seems he’ll need additional time to rest his ailing foot, however, as he’s now shelved until at least July 26. Plantar fasciitis is generally considered to be a matter of pain tolerance, so it’s unlikely that Correa will remain shelved until it’s fully healed. Even so, it’s not necessarily a surprise that he and the Twins are taking the issue seriously given his struggles while playing through the issue in his left foot last year. While Correa played in 135 games last year, he posted a below-average 96 wRC+ while defensive metrics suggested that his typically excellent defense at shortstop slipped.

That decline in performance while playing through the injury clearly suggested to the Twins and Correa that it would be best for everyone if he took additional time to rest his ailing foot before returning to the lineup, though it’s worth noting that manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman) that Correa’s absence isn’t expected to require “several weeks to a month,” with the club anticipating his return sooner than that. For now, however, Correa has received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his foot and will look to recover while Gleeman relays that Willi Castro will get the majority of reps at shortstop in his absence.

With Castro handling shortstop on a regular basis and Brooks Lee covering for the injured Royce Lewis at third base, the Twins are calling on Julien to take back over at the keystone. The 25-year-old posted a pedestrian 97 wRC+ in his sophomore season across 58 games before being optioned down to the minors, where he has subsequently impressed with a 114 wRC+ and an eye-popping 21.2% walk rate. Julien will be joined by Martin, who can provide a right-handed complement to him at second base while also backing up the club’s outfield mix.

As for Paddack, the right-hander’s first full season back from his second Tommy John surgery has been a difficult one. He’s battled injury issues to make 17 starts this season, although even when healthy enough to take the mound he’s struggled to a 4.99 ERA despite solid peripherals such as a 4.19 FIP and a 4.09 SIERA. In spite of those peripherals, however, Paddack’s performance has seen him strike out a career-low 20.6% of batters faced while generating less grounders than ever before, a clip of just 37.3%. While forearm issues are somewhat alarming for a pitcher who has already gone under the knife for Tommy John surgery twice, Baldelli suggested to reporters (including Gleeman) that the club isn’t particularly concerned, believing that the problem is a muscle strain that will heal up with rest.

Even if Paddack is back in action in relatively short order, however, the news only exacerbates Minnesota’s obvious need for help in the starting rotation. While Joe Ryan has impressed as a front-of-the-rotation option and Bailey Ober’s typical mid-rotation production is as steady as ever, Pablo Lopez has surprisingly struggled after entering the season as the club’s ace following the departure of Sonny Gray over the winter while Louie Varland struggled enough in the fifth starter role to be demoted to Triple-A. Simeon Woods-Richardson has done well in Varland’s place, but with the likes of Varland and rookie Dave Festa as the best options to step into Paddack’s rotation spot, it’s easy to see why the Twins are reportedly looking into rental starters ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.

Twins Notes: Paddack, Festa, Canterino, Bullpen

By Steve Adams | June 26, 2024 at 10:10am CDT

The Twins placed righty Chris Paddack on the 15-day injured list yesterday due to fatigue in his right shoulder, but the right-hander made clear in a follow-up interview that he’s not concerned about any potential injury (link via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). “This isn’t pain or discomfort,” said Paddack, who’s in his first season full season back from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. “This is fatigue.”

Paddack expanded that while his general approach is that he wants the ball at every opportunity, he also felt the need to listen to his body and “not be a hero” after a recent dip in his fastball velocity and feelings of a “dead arm.” The 28-year-old righty has tossed 78 1/3 innings this season — already his most since 2021 and in fact more than he pitched in 2022-23 combined (majors and minor league rehab work included). Some fatigue and workload management was to be expected, and the recent drop in velocity prompted the team to make a move.

Notably, Nightengale adds that manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed Paddack will return to the rotation once he’s reinstated from the injured list. There’s no plan to shift the right-hander to a relief role at this time, though he thrived in that setting down the stretch and in the postseason with the Twins last year when he tossed a combined 8 2/3 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk with a hefty 14 strikeouts. Paddack’s fastball sat at a career-high 95.5 mph last year in relief, per Statcast, and he was frequently touching the upper 90s in the playoffs.

Perhaps a return to that role could be in play down the line (speculatively speaking), but the organization will continue starting him for now. Paddack has a 5.29 ERA in 15 starts, due largely to a pair of ugly outings at Camden Yards (nine runs) and at Yankee Stadium (seven runs).

In the short term, the Twins will need to plug someone into the fifth spot in their rotation. KSTP’s Darren Wolfson reports that Minnesota will start reliever Ryan Jensen today at Triple-A instead of top prospect David Festa, presumably setting the stage for Festa to make his big league debut tomorrow in Arizona. (Note: I misread the team’s game log yesterday and incorrectly wrote that Festa had pitched too recently to be an option; my apologies for the error.)

The 24-year-old Festa has been sharp in Triple-A this season, pitching to a 3.77 ERA with a huge 35.1% strikeout rate, a 9.7% walk rate and a strong 45.5% grounder rate. While his walk rate could stand to come down a few ticks, it’s worth pointing out that Festa has improved considerably in that regard as the season has progressed. After walking an alarming 20% of his opponents through his first four starts, he’s slashed his walk rate to 6.7% — including zero walks over his past two outings. His strikeout rate has improved a bit as he’s honed his command, sitting at 37.3% in his 10 most recent outings.

Festa is considered one of the Twins’ best — if not their best — pitching prospects. He sits at No. 99 on MLB.com’s recently updated top-100 list and is the game’s No. 93 prospect over at FanGraphs. He’s been a nice development story for the Twins as a 13th-round pick in 2021 who signed for a $125K bonus. Minnesota will need to add Festa to the 40-man roster if he is indeed called upon for his debut, but they have an open spot at the moment anyhow (and righty Brock Stewart has already been on the 15-day IL for nearly 60 days in the event that they need a second space anytime soon).

While Festa’s progress toward the big leagues is a big positive, the Twins’ former top pitching prospect, Matt Canterino, has had yet another setback, per Nightengale. The 26-year-old righty is headed for an MRI on his shoulder after experiencing discomfort in a recent bullpen session. Canterino, the No. 54 overall pick back in 2019, has dominated minor league opponents when healthy, evidenced by a career 1.48 ERA and 39.1% strikeout rate since being drafted.

Unfortunately, between the pandemic-canceled 2020 season and repeated injuries, he’s only been able to pitch 85 innings in total. He most recently underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and has yet to get back into a minor league game since that time. He’s on the Twins’ 40-man roster and is in the first of three minor league option years, so they needn’t yet consider cutting him loose to open a spot, but it’s another frustrating setback for the talented but oft-injured righty.

There’s better news on a pair of injured Twins relievers, however. The aforementioned Stewart pitched a bullpen session three days ago and will do so again today and on the 29th, per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. The former Dodgers prospect has been a revelation since joining the Twins on a minor league deal, pitching 41 innings of relief with a 0.66 ERA and 34.8% strikeout rate dating back to last season. He’s been out since early May with a shoulder injury.

As for righty Justin Topa, whom the Twins acquired in the offseason Jorge Polanco trade, he’s slated to throw a bullpen session in early July, per Park. The right-hander suffered a 25% tear of the patellar tendon in his knee during spring training, Park notes, but was recommended for a platelet-rich plasma injection and rest rather than surgery. Twins trainer Nick Paparesta detailed that Topa will then ramp up through the All-Star break before being reevaluated. A second-half return remains in play for the righty, who pitched 69 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Mariners in 2023 and is under team control with the Twins through 2026.

Twins Place Chris Paddack On Injured List

By Steve Adams | June 25, 2024 at 11:54am CDT

The Twins announced Tuesday that they’ve placed right-hander Chris Paddack on the injured list with shoulder fatigue. Right-hander Ronny Henriquez has been recalled from Triple-A St. Paul in his place. Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that Paddack informed the team after his most recent start that he’s been experiencing a dead arm recently.

Some fatigue for Paddack should come as little surprise. The 28-year-old righty pitched only 18 1/3 innings last year (minors and postseason included) in his return from 2022 Tommy John surgery — a procedure that limited him to just 22 1/3 frames that season. He’s already surpassed his combined 2022-23 innings total with this year’s 78 1/3 frames.

It’s been an up-and-down season for Paddack in his first full year since his second career Tommy John surgery. Overall, his 5.29 ERA looks rather grim, but that number is heavily skewed by two disastrous outings: a nine-run drubbing in Baltimore during his third start of the season and a seven-run showing at Yankee Stadium earlier this month. On the other end of the spectrum, Paddack has a pair of 10-strikeout gems this season. He’s been a boom-or-bust option for manager Rocco Baldelli throughout the year, but Paddack will take a seat for at least the next two weeks after yielding a combined eight runs in his past seven innings of work across two starts (both of which came against a lackluster Oakland lineup).

With Paddack on the shelf, the Twins will have an opening in the fifth spot of the rotation behind Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods Richardson. Paddack’s spot is set to come up on Thursday, though the Twins just had an off-day, which could allow them to start Ober on regular rest that day. St. Paul righties Caleb Boushley and Randy Dobnak would also be on full rest (Dobnak would need to be added to the 40-man roster) if the Twins want to give Ober an extra day after throwing a complete game his last time out.

Other depth options like Louie Varland and top prospect David Festa both pitched within the past couple days, likely ruling them out for Thursday — but either could be an option for subsequent starts, depending on how long Paddack is out. There’s no timetable for Paddack’s return at present, though the lack of a strain or any other notable injury doesn’t create immediate concern of a protracted absence. The right-hander is in the second season of a three-year, $12.5MM extension he signed while rehabbing from that Tommy John procedure. That deal bought out Paddack’s final two arbitration seasons as well as his first free-agent year.

Twins Expect To Add At Least One Starting Pitcher

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2023 at 11:54am CDT

Much of the focus of the Twins’ offseason thus far has been on their intent to scale back payroll amid the collapse of their RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports, and potential trades of veterans like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez. However, while all of those storylines remain valid, the Twins’ desire to reduce payroll doesn’t preclude them from spending at all. Minnesota has a projected payroll of about $125MM right now and figures to end up in the $125-135MM range. Trades of Kepler ($10MM salary in 2024), Polanco ($10.5MM), Farmer ($6.6MM projected salary) and/or Vazquez ($10MM) could leave them with room for some spending.

To that end, it’s worth highlighting that both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic have written this week that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter. That’s not likely to be a top-of-the-market name but rather someone to compete with Louie Varland for the final spot in the rotation, Nightengale suggests. Minnesota also hopes to bring in a second veteran arm (if not more) on a minor league deal, Hayes adds.

As it stands, even with the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota has a respectable front five. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and the aforementioned Varland are currently at the top of the depth chart, with minor league arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick and yet-to-debut prospects David Festa and Matt Canterino (who missed the 2023 season due rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery) next in line.

It’s a nice group of arms, but Paddack figures to be on an innings count in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. He looked excellent in 8 2/3 innings of bullpen work late in the regular season and during the playoffs, but overall he pitched just 18 1/3 frames between his minor league rehab stint, brief regular-season return, and that playoff showing. He pitched 22 1/3 innings the year prior.

The Twins don’t yet know how many innings they can count on from Paddack, but it’ll surely be fewer than his career-high 140 2/3 frames. Even reaching 100 frames would have to be considered a success, given his recent lack of innings. All four of their other starters topped 140 innings in 2023 (Triple-A time for Varland and Ober included), but the Twins can’t presume each of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland will be healthy enough for 30-plus appearances for a second straight season in 2024 (again, including Triple-A time for the latter two). They’re also losing a combined 288 1/3 innings from the departures of Gray and Maeda.

Even if the Twins can safely be crossed off the list of expected suitors for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and the like, there are plenty of experienced arms who could slot into the mix in the final two rotation spots. A veteran like Wade Miley would provide steady innings on a short-term deal. The Twins could also pursue an upside/rebound play like Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas, the latter of whom they targeted in trades a couple years back. On the lower end of the salary spectrum, the Twins’ existing depth makes them a reasonable candidate to roll the dice on former top prospect and reigning KBO MVP Erick Fedde, who’s eyeing a possible MLB return. In general, it’s a deep class of free-agent pitchers. It’s also plausible that they could acquire a younger back-of-the-rotation candidate in a deal involving one of those previously mentioned trade candidates, simultaneously bolstering depth and scaling back payroll in the process.

The Twins probably aren’t going to be major free-agent players this offseason, as they’ve been in the past couple winters, but between their pursuit of some additional innings/rotation depth and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey’s recent acknowledgment that he’ll likely explore the first base market, Minnesota could still be active in the middle and lower tiers of free agency — in addition to their expected activity on the trade market.

The Twins’ Bullpen Is In Good Shape For The Postseason

By Leo Morgenstern | September 27, 2023 at 11:13am CDT

The Twins’ bullpen got a big boost last night, when flamethrowing righties Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart returned to the mound. Paddack has been out all season recovering from Tommy John surgery, while Stewart has been on the shelf with elbow discomfort for the past three months.

Paddack nearly made his return on Sunday, but a rain delay ended his outing before it began. Thus, it wasn’t until last night that he finally threw a pitch in a Major League Baseball game, his first since last May. While the results weren’t quite what he hoped for – he gave up three runs in two innings of work – the underlying numbers were encouraging. The 6-foot-5 right-hander struck out four, earning six called strikes and seven whiffs. His fastball was averaging 96 mph and touching 99; last season, his four-seam averaged just 93 mph and topped out at 96. To be fair, he was a starting pitcher last year, but even so, a 3-mph bump is a promising sign of good things to come. Paddack was never a power pitcher during his time as a starter, but he seems to have discovered a penchant for high heat.

Stewart, for his part, picked up right where he left off. The 31-year-old turned heads earlier this season, showing off a 97-mph fastball and striking out 35.4% of the batters he faced. His heater was back in full force on Tuesday, averaging just under 98 mph. He struck out two of three opposing hitters, inducing eight swings and four whiffs and lowering his season ERA to 0.68.

With Paddack and Stewart back in the fold, the Twins suddenly find themselves with an abundance of talented relievers, an asset every team longs for but few possess. Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagán, and Caleb Thielbar lead the way, with capable arms like Griffin Jax and Kody Funderburk behind them. Paddack and Stewart provide further depth, as do recently converted starters Louie Varland and Kenta Maeda. That’s nine arms the Twins can count on in October, many of whom have dominant reliever upside.

Manager Rocco Baldelli will lean a little harder on his most trustworthy guys, as all managers do in the playoffs. Still, Duran and Pagán can’t throw every day. When Baldelli has to turn to another bullpen arm, there really isn’t a bad option in the bunch.

Suffice it to say, this hasn’t been the case all year. On the season, Twins relievers rank eighth in the AL with a 3.98 ERA, ninth with 3.2 FanGraphs WAR, and 11th with 36 saves. Things have only gotten worse in the second half, in which they have a 4.27 ERA and 10 blown saves in 28 chances.

However, Minnesota’s bullpen looks completely different today than it has the rest of the year. Indeed, over the last two weeks, they lead the AL with a 2.93 ERA, and that’s without much contribution from Paddack, Stewart, and Maeda. Simply put, the Twins have added by subtraction, replacing their least effective relievers with stronger arms. They cut ties with Jorge López (5.09 ERA) and Dylan Floro (5.29). They optioned Brent Headrick (6.31) and Jordan Balazovic (4.44). Several more relievers are on the 60-day IL, including Jovani Moran (5.31), Jorge Alcala (6.46), and José De León (5.28).

Those seven pitchers threw a total of 175 1/3 innings in relief for the Twins this season; that’s one-third of the team’s bullpen workload. In those innings, they combined for an unsightly 5.39 ERA. To put that in perspective, all other Twins relievers have a 3.29 ERA this year, more than two full runs lower. That’s wider than the gap between the Dodgers’ bullpen (3.41 ERA) and the Rockies’ bullpen (5.31). Meanwhile, the nine relievers who currently make up the Twins’ bullpen have combined for a 2.84 ERA in 276 innings of work.

This team will enter the postseason as an underdog. By winning their division, the Twins are guaranteed to be either the No. 2 or 3 seed in the American League, yet still, they are likely to finish with the worst record in the AL playoff field. On paper, they are the weaker party, whether they’re facing the Blue Jays, the Astros, the Rangers, or the Mariners. That being the case, the Twins must be better than their regular season record suggests if they hope to advance.

It will help if Minnesota gets Carlos Correa, and possibly Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, back in time for the Wild Card series. The lineup could certainly use the star power. Ultimately, however, the relief corps will be this team’s secret weapon. The Twins have more depth and fewer liabilities in the bullpen than at any other point this season. Accordingly, they’ll be counting on their relievers to give them an edge come October.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Activate Chris Paddack

By Nick Deeds | September 24, 2023 at 11:05am CDT

The Twins announced this morning that the club had activated right-hander Chris Paddack from the 60-day IL. Left-hander Jovani Moran was recalled and placed on the 60-day IL to make way for Paddack on the 40-man roster, while right-hander Josh Winder was optioned to Triple-A to clear space on the active roster.

Paddack, 27, is returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. An eighth-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft, he was shipped to the Padres in exchange for closer Fernando Rodney just one year later. Paddack eventually made his big league debut in 2019 and made a strong impression during his rookie campaign. The youngster posted a 3.33 ERA across 140 2/3 innings of work with a 26.9% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.5%. Things took a turn for a worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as his ERA shot up to 4.73 across 12 starts, thanks in large part to an unbelievable 25% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.

While Paddack’s home run rate came back down to Earth in 2021, his results remained less than stellar. His 5.07 ERA was 23% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and while his career-best 3.78 FIP and a career-low 60.7% strand rate indicated that misfortune could be plaguing Paddack, the righty’s strikeout rate had dipped to just 21.6%, a far cry from the highs of his rookie season. Paddack also dealt with injuries throughout the 2021 campaign, with three trips to the injured list costing him a total of two months.

The struggles led the Padres to move on from Paddack, shipping him to Minnesota ahead of the 2022 season alongside right-hander Emilio Pagan in exchange for lefty Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. Paddack looked to have better days on the horizon through five starts with his new club, as he posted a 4.03 ERA and 3.18 FIP across 22 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for both Paddack and the Twins, the righty would subsequently require surgery that would wipe out the remainder of his 2022 season and the entire 2023 campaign to this point. Of course, the injury woes didn’t stop the sides from coming together on a three-year pact this offseason that bought out what otherwise would have been his first free agent year.

Now back on the mound in the big leagues, Paddack is expected to work out of the bullpen for the Twins down the stretch and into the postseason, though after stretching out to 60 pitches in the minors, it’s certainly plausible that he could provide Minnesota with rotation depth or a piggyback starter in the playoffs, should the club wind up in a pinch at some point. Looking ahead to 2024, Paddack seems poised to be in the mix for the club’s rotation alongside Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan following the impending departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda via free agency.

Moran, 26, posted a 5.31 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work for the Twins this season but hasn’t appeared in the majors since early August. He was placed on the IL in the minor leagues at the end of August with a forearm strain, and evidently will not pitch again this season. As for Winder, the righty has posted a solid 4.15 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work as a long reliever for the Twins this year, his first since converting to the bullpen full time. He could provide the Twins with starting depth throughout their postseason run, but won’t be eligible to return to the regular season roster this year unless he replaces an injured player.

AL Central Notes: Keller, Paddack, Allen

By Nick Deeds | September 23, 2023 at 6:21pm CDT

Royals right-hander Brad Keller spent most of the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, and though he was activated briefly early this month, he quickly found himself back on the shelf due to what the club described as “symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.” His placement back on the IL had already ended his 2023 season, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star) that Keller has indeed been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Quatraro added that Keller has not yet decided a course of action regarding his injury and figures to decide in the coming days about his path forward.

It’s brutal news for Keller, who is poised to depart the Royals for free agency once the 2023 season comes to a close. Keller looked to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the early seasons of his career, posting a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 360 1/3 innings of work between 2018 and 2020. Unfortunately, he’s suffered a significant downturn in production since then, with a 5.14 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 314 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. In that time, Keller’s walk rate crept up to 11.5%, well above the 9.1% figure he posted in the first three seasons of his career. While Keller was striking out more batters as well, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the additional walks, to say nothing of a sustained spike in the percentage of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs in recent years. After posting an HR/FB of just 8% in the first three years of his career, that number spiked to 13% the last three seasons.

With less than two months until free agency figures to open, Keller faces a significant degree of uncertainty about the future of his career after spending his entire major league career to this point with the Royals. Surgery to correct TOS has rarely seen players return to the majors and enjoy success, with Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer among the arms who have seen their careers impacted by the procedure in recent years. One example of a player who has returned effectively is Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly, who stands as a prime example of the fact that not all types of TOS have the same long-term outlook.

More from around the AL Central…

The Twins could welcome right-hander Chris Paddack back to the major league roster as soon as tomorrow, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Paddack, 27, has been on the IL since last spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has long been been considered a possible late-season option for Minnesota’s pitching staff. It seems that possibility is on the verge of coming to fruition, with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that Paddack is expected to contribute as a reliever out of the bullpen rather than a member of the rotation upon being activated. Paddack looked impressive in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, where the righty struck out five on two hits and a walk across three scoreless innings of work.
The Guardians have placed left-hander Logan Allen on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation, per MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. The move brings an end to Allen’s rookie season. It was an impressive start to the young southpaw’s career, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.20 FIP across 24 starts with the Guardians this year. Allen and fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are the latest young arms to slide into the club’s rotation from their farm system, and figure to join more established arms like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie as quality rotation options as Cleveland looks ahead to the 2024 campaign.

Chris Paddack Expected To Begin Rehab Assignment This Week

By Anthony Franco | September 4, 2023 at 8:19pm CDT

Twins right-hander Chris Paddack is in line to begin a rehab stint on Wednesday, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. He’ll go three innings in his first game action in 16 months.

Paddack underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career last May. He began working off a mound 13 months later and has gradually built his throwing program since that point. The Twins have maintained throughout that process that they hoped to get him back for the stretch run.

Last week, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune wrote that Paddack was targeting a bullpen return. That’s not surprising, as a relief role would reduce the amount of time Paddack needs to spend rehabbing as he builds toward a less demanding job. It’s also arguably more beneficial for the Twins generally. Minnesota’s rotation has been among the league’s best, while the bullpen is roughly league average.

Acquired from the Padres on Opening Day 2022, Paddack was limited to five starts during his first season with Minnesota. He has 66 MLB appearances (65 starts) over parts of four campaigns, pitching to a 4.20 ERA through 330 1/3 innings. His production dipped over his three years in San Diego, but he’d run an impressive 20:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his limited time with the Twins before the elbow procedure.

In other injury news, manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters that Byron Buxton was staying with the team for treatment on his right knee (relayed by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). Buxton had started a rehab stint last Wednesday as he works back from a hamstring strain. Knee concerns have bothered him all year, with the Twins keeping him at designated hitter as a result.

Buxton saw his first game action in center field during a brief rehab stint with Triple-A St. Paul before reporting the renewed knee soreness. Baldelli left open the possibility of again trying Buxton in center field once he’s ready to get back to game action.

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