Mets Notes: Paddack, Hosmer, Smith, Bassitt
Chris Paddack‘s recent Tommy John surgery has brought a new focus on the rumored offseason trade between the Mets and Padres that would have seen San Diego move Paddack, Eric Hosmer, Emilio Pagan, and over $30MM (to help cover Hosmer’s salary) to New York in exchange for Dominic Smith. Trade talks reportedly got pretty deep between the two sides, but ultimately fell apart due to what The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports as concerns from the Mets’ medical staff about Paddack’s health records.
With Paddack now on the shelf until at least partway through the 2023 season, it appears as though New York’s team doctors made the right call. Interestingly, Heyman reports that the Mets were also planning to flip Hosmer in another trade with an unknown team, rather than use the first baseman in their own lineup. Given the difficulties that the Padres have had for months in finding a taker for Hosmer, it would’ve been a little surprising to see him moved twice in short order, though it is also easy to imagine Hosmer’s market picking up with the Padres eating so much of his contract.
More from the Amazins….
- This isn’t the first time Dominic Smith has been a trade candidate, as the former top prospect has swung from cornerstone to expendable multiple times in his career. Smith has struggled to a .552 OPS over his first 79 plate appearances and isn’t pleased about being back in a part-time role. “Being here since I was 22, now I’m 26, and still in the same position….If there’s a team out there that wants me to play and wants to let me play, I would love to play every day. That’s just how I feel about that,” Smith told Newsday’s Anthony Rieber. However, Smith also stressed that he feels he can get the opportunity with the Mets, saying “I feel like I can impact this team in a number of ways, and that’s being [in the lineup] every day, in my opinion.” Even after Robinson Cano‘s release theoretically should’ve created more at-bats for Smith at the DH spot, Smith still isn’t playing very often, seemingly caught in the catch-22 of not hitting well enough to earn more playing time, yet also not being able to get into a groove due to that lack of playing time.
- Chris Bassitt and the Mets agreed to a one-year deal (with a mutual option for 2023) today, which avoids the need for the two sides to determine Bassitt’s 2022 salary in an arbitration hearing. Speaking to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters, Bassitt said he was “happy that it’s not going to be a distraction for anybody,” given how the lockout has pushed several unsettled arbitration cases into the actual season. While Bassitt said he would like to with the Mets beyond 2022, that same desire to just concentrate on this season doesn’t make it seem likely that extension talks will take place until the winter. “A lot of people are short-term thinking right now this year. We have such a special group that I don’t really want to be a distraction and hurt that in any way,” Bassitt said.
Chris Paddack Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Twins starter Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery today, the team informed reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press). It’s the second such procedure of his career, as he previously went under the knife as a Padres prospect back in 2016.
It’s obviously a disappointing development for both pitcher and team. Minnesota just acquired Paddack on the eve of Opening Day, relinquishing closer Taylor Rogers and corner outfielder Brent Rooker to secure three years of his services (as well as reliever Emilio Pagán). The hope was that Paddack would add some depth to a rotation that had its fair share of injury concerns, but his first season in Minnesota comes to a close after five outings.
Paddack presented something of a health red flag himself, however. In addition to his prior Tommy John surgery, the righty landed on the injured list late last September due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That proved a season-ending issue, but Paddack returned to open this year. He left his May 8 start because of renewed elbow inflammation, and reports thereafter suggested surgery might prove necessary.
The 26-year-old Paddack has proven enigmatic from both a health and performance perspective. He was lights-out as a rookie, tossing 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball in 2019. His production ticked downwards in both of the following seasons, as his ERA jumped north of 4.70 in both years while he struggled to keep the ball in the park. The Friars continued to stockpile starting pitching talent over that time, and Paddack fell outside the top five or six arms on the rotation depth chart.
San Diego explored multiple possible Paddack deals in Spring Training. He and Pagán were involved in talks with the Mets that might’ve offloaded some of Eric Hosmer’s contract to New York while sending Dominic Smith to Southern California. Mets’ brass eventually pulled out of that possible deal, and San Diego pivoted to talks with Minnesota instead.
From a performance perspective, Paddack had shown signs of turning the corner in his early run in the Twin Cities. He posted a 4.03 ERA across 22 1/3 innings, striking out 21.5% of opponents while walking just two of the 93 hitters he faced. The Texas native saw slight dips in his fastball velocity and swinging strike rate, but neither seemed especially alarming until he was pulled mid-start with the elbow concern.
Paddack is making $2.25MM this season, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration twice more. With his limited innings total, he’ll only accrue a marginal raise on that salary for 2023. He’ll certainly miss the bulk of the 2023 campaign as well, so his final arbitration raise will probably also be muted. It’s unfortunate timing for Paddack, but that affordability probably means the Twins will tender him a contract with an eye towards the end of next season and the 2024 campaign.
In the meantime, Minnesota will have to make due with their other starting pitching options. Joe Ryan and Chris Archer are the only two who have taken all seven turns through the rotation. Dylan Bundy missed some time with COVID-19, but both he and Sonny Gray — who had a brief IL stint for a hamstring strain — are back. Bailey Ober shouldn’t be far behind after making a rehab start with Triple-A St. Paul over the weekend, and well-regarded prospect Josh Winder has produced in a swing role.
That’s likely to be the primary group, although there’s a fair bit of performance and injury uncertainty with the veteran options at the back end. Kenta Maeda is hoping to make a late-season return from his own Tommy John surgery, which he underwent last September. Still, rotation help looked to be a possible midseason target for the division-leading Twins even if everyone were healthy. Paddack’s loss only figures to spur that pursuit as we move nearer to the trade deadline.
Twins Reinstate Luis Arraez, Option Jose Godoy, Transfer Chris Paddack to 60-Day IL
The first-place Twins made a flurry of moves this afternoon, the team announced, including reinstating infielder Luis Arraez from the COVID IL and optioning catcher Jose Godoy to Triple-A St. Paul. They also appointed right-hander Cole Sands as the 27th man for today’s game against the Astros (allowed as a result of the suspension of last night’s Twins-Astros tilt in the fourth inning) and transferred right-hander Chris Paddack, who’s been out since Tuesday with elbow inflammation, to the 60-day IL.
Arraez, who’d been out since Friday, had gotten off to a hot start to the season, slashing .301/.378/.370 while logging significant time at first, second, and third. He’ll return to his role as manager Rocco Baldelli‘s super-utility man, though he could also serve as the Twins’ primary first baseman with Miguel Sano set to miss a significant chunk of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. He’s shared time there with top prospect Jose Miranda and outfielder Alex Kirilloff since Sano hit the IL.
Given the relatively short duration of Arraez’s absence, perhaps the more significant news in Minnesota is Paddack’s transferral to the 60-day injured list, which could signal that the recently acquired righty will undergo a second Tommy John surgery — as had been feared since his departure in the third inning of Sunday’s game against the A’s. This hasn’t been confirmed, though the timing is ominous: Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported yesterday morning that the former Padre would get a second opinion by today. Regardless, Paddack will now be on the shelf until at least July — and quite likely until at least next year. In 22 1/3 innings across five starts prior to the injury, Paddack posted a 4.03 ERA (1.73 FIP) for a Twins staff already without Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, and Kenta Maeda.
Sands, selected out of Florida State by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2018 amateur draft, has mostly started in the minors. While he’s off to a rough start to the season at Triple-A St. Paul, he did turn in a strong 2021, logging 80 1/3 innings with a 2.46 ERA and solidly more than a strikeout per inning for Double-A Wichita. The call-up marks his second stint in the majors this year; he covered two innings (and allowed two earned runs) in an early May blowout of the Rays.
Godoy, who made his big-league debut with the Mariners last year, appeared in only a single game for the Twins. The 27-year-old backstop will return to Triple-A to serve as injury cover Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez.
Twins Place Carlos Correa, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL; Select Mark Contreras, Jharel Cotton
The Twins announced that shortstop Carlos Correa and right-hander Chris Paddack have been placed on the 10-day injured list today. Correa’s placement (due to a right middle finger contusion) is retroactive to May 6, while Paddack’s placement with right elbow inflammation is retroactive to May 9. Minnesota has selected the contracts of outfielder Mark Contreras and righty Jharel Cotton to replace Correa and Paddack on the active roster.
As reported earlier today, Correa needed more time to recover from the deep bruise suffered in Thursday’s game, and the shortstop hasn’t played since. While Correa may have avoided serious injury, things seem more ominous for Paddack, who has a history of elbow problems. Paddack is still considering his next step, and another surgery hasn’t been ruled out.
Royce Lewis will take over for Correa at shortstop, and Sonny Gray‘s return from the injured list over the weekend means the Twins still have a full five-man rotation (plus Dylan Bundy on the COVID-related IL). Minnesota is still missing a lot of key personnel on the injured list, so to improve that depth, Contreras and Cotton are joining the roster.
Cotton already appeared in two games with the Twins earlier this season, tossing two innings before being outrighted off the 40-man roster. The former top-100 prospect is trying to revive his career after a number of injuries, and after posting a 3.52 ERA over 30 2/3 innings with the Rangers last season, Cotton was acquired by the Twins on a waiver claim back in November.
Contreras was a ninth-round pick for the Twins in the 2017 draft, and the UC Riverside product is now set to make his Major League debut. The 27-year-old didn’t hit much in his first three pro seasons, but after not playing in 2020 due to the canceled minor league campaign, Contreras returned to action with a flourish, hitting well at Double-A and earning a promotion to Triple-A Rochester. Over 497 plate appearances at Rochester over the last two seasons, Contreras has hit .246/.338/.492 with 23 homers, and 17 steals in 23 chances.
Both Contreras and Gilberto Celestino can play all three outfield positions, and Contreras is a left-handed hitting complement to Celestino’s righty bat. Minnesota now has some flexibility with their outfield bench depth behind starters Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, and Byron Buxton, though with Buxton still day-to-day with a minor hip strain, the Twins can’t afford to lose yet another regular (especially a star like Buxton) when they’re already stretched thin.
Chris Paddack Leaves Game With Elbow Inflammation
TODAY: “Surgery is on the table” for Paddack, Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets, though Paddack is continuing to explore all options.
MAY 8: Twins starter Chris Paddack left today’s game due to inflammation in his right elbow. Paddack pitched into the third inning, retiring the first batter and then allowing two hits before being pulled, following a mound visit from the team trainer. Acting Twins manager Jayce Tingler told reporters (including Betsy Helfand of The St. Paul Pioneer Press) that Paddack started to feel some tightness in his elbow as he started his final frame of work.
More will be known once Paddack undergoes medical testing, but as Helfand notes, this particular injury is worrisome considering Paddack’s history of elbow issues. The right-hander suffered a slight UCL sprain just last September that prematurely ended his 2021 season, and going further back, Paddack underwent a Tommy John surgery in 2016. If the injury isn’t anything more than just inflammation, the Twins could still skip Paddack’s next start for precautionary reasons, or even put him on the 10-day injured list just to ensure that everything is completely fine.
For a club that had so many questions about its rotation heading into the 2022 season, the Twins now finds itself in a situation where they actually have more than enough depth to accommodate a short-term absence for Paddack. Minnesota’s rotation has been a strength, with Paddack, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Bailey Ober (currently on the 10-day IL with a groin injury), and Josh Winder all pitching well to begin the year. Dylan Bundy also seems to be on the verge of returning from the COVID-IL, so Bundy could slot right into Paddack’s rotation spot if Paddack is indeed sidelined.
Twins Acquire Brayan Medina To Complete Taylor Rogers Trade
The Twins have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Brayan Medina from the Padres, per Minnesota’s director of communications and player relations Dustin Morse. Earlier this month, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan and a player to be named later, which has now been revealed as Medina.
Born in Venezuela, Medina is just 19 years old. He made 12 starts and 2 relief appearances last year between the Arizona Complex League and the Dominican Summer League. In 33 2/3 innings pitched, he had a 5.88 ERA, 30.4% strikeout rate and 14.9% walk rate. Last year, Baseball America ranked him the #26 prospect in the Padres’ system.
After going over the first luxury tax line last year, the Padres have seemed reluctant to do so again this year, as paying the tax in consecutive years comes with escalating penalties. Their current CBT number is just under $229MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That gives them only about $1MM of wiggle room before they are over the first CBT line, which is $230MM under the new CBA. As part of the trade with Minnesota, the Twins agreed to pay almost all of Rogers’ salary, helping the Padres limbo under that line. Medina seems to be their reward for doing so, adding an intriguing young arm to their system.
Blake Snell Scratched From Start
8:50 PM: Snell is likely headed to the injured list, per Cassavell (via Twitter). Crismatt tossed three scoreless innings in Snell’s place today. The Padres play the next ten games without a day off, so they will certainly move some roster pieces around if Snell is going to be out for that time.
3:38 PM: San Diego Padres starter Blake Snell was a last-minute scratch from his first scheduled start of the season today. The issue is left adductor tightness, the same injury that troubled Snell at the end of last season, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (via Twitter).
Nabil Crismatt took the ball to start the ballgame in Snell’s stead. The 27-year-old swingman should be fresh, as he has yet to appear in a game so far this season. Today marks the first start of his Major League career, though he was mostly a starter coming up through the Mets’ minor league system. Crismatt owns a 3.71 ERA in 51 career appearances out of the pen.
Crismatt would be a candidate to stay in the rotation for a turn or two if Snell ends up needing a stint on the injured list. Reiss Knehr would be a prospective call-up if the Padres decide to go that route. They just dealt away Chris Paddack, but of course, they wouldn’t have done so with the expectation of needing just five starters to get through the season. They no doubt have a hierarchy in place for just this sort of contingency.
Snell’s first season in San Diego didn’t exactly go as planned for either party, and this marks an inauspicious start to year two. The 2018 AL Cy Young winner put up a 4.20 ERA/3.82 FIP over 128 2/3 innings over 27 starts.
AL Central Notes: Royals, Singer, Lynch, Tigers, Peralta, Pineda, Twins
The Royals finalized their season-opening rotation yesterday, with manager Mike Matheny telling reporters (including Alec Lewis of the Athletic) that southpaw Daniel Lynch will claim the final spot behind Zack Greinke, Brad Keller, Kris Bubic and Carlos Hernández. Notably, that means right-hander Brady Singer — who has started all 39 of his MLB appearances — is set to work out of the bullpen initially. Matheny indicated the Royals still view Singer and righty Jackson Kowar as starting pitchers long-term, but it’ll be Lynch who gets the nod for now.
It’s a bit of a surprising move, as Singer is coming off the better season. Neither hurler had a good ERA in 2021, but Singer had a better strikeout and ground-ball rate than Lynch while issuing slightly fewer walks. Lynch generated a slightly higher whiff rate, but Singer was among the league’s best pitchers at picking up called strikes. Some evaluators raised concerns during Singer’s prospect days about whether his below-average changeup and lower arm slot could diminish his ability to turn a lineup over multiple times, but he’s not shown marked second or third times through the order splits in his career thus far. Injuries and/or underperformance to the front five figure to give Singer another rotation look in the near future.
More pitching updates from around the division:
- The Tigers are planning to use Wily Peralta in relief this season, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. The righty started 18 of 19 appearances with Detroit last year, posting a solid 3.07 ERA but an underwhelming 14.4% strikeout rate. The Tigers brought Peralta back on a minor league contract this spring. He seems likely to get another big league call fairly soon, but he was delayed in reporting to Spring Training because of visa issues and is set for further ramp-up work in the minors. The Tigers added Michael Pineda on a one-year big league deal to assume the final rotation spot behind Eduardo Rodríguez, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning. Pineda — held up by visa concerns of his own — consented to be optioned to Triple-A Toledo to open the year for more build-up time, giving Tyler Alexander the #5 spot for the season’s first couple weeks. Pineda tossed three innings for the Mud Hens yesterday, and Petzold notes he’s likely to make two more appearances there before being recalled to the majors.
- The Twins made a last-minute addition to their rotation before Opening Day, acquiring Chris Paddack from the Padres in a deal that involved four MLB players changing hands. Minnesota already had a starting five of Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober and Chris Archer lined up, and manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com) the Twins will roll with a six-man starting staff to open the season. Active rosters are expanded from 26 to 28 through April, giving teams flexibility to carry plenty of arms. Minnesota is also carrying top prospects Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran on the Opening Day roster, with both working in relief. Duran is expected to remain in that role (where he shined in two innings during his MLB debut this afternoon); Winder could be a rotation option down the line, and Baldelli said Winder could shoulder as much as five innings during an appearance out of the ‘pen in the early going (Park link).
Twins Acquire Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagan From Padres For Taylor Rogers, Brent Rooker
10:33am: The Padres are receiving $6.6MM from the Twins, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That effectively reduces Rogers’ $7.3MM salary to the new $700K league minimum.
10:00am: The Twins saved one more move in their whirlwind offseason for what was scheduled to be Opening Day (before said opener was pushed back to Friday due to weather). Minnesota announced Thursday the acquisition of right-handed starter Chris Paddack and righty reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for closer Taylor Rogers and first baseman/outfielder Brent Rooker. The Twins will also receive a player to be named later and will send cash to San Diego in the deal. The Padres have also announced the trade.
Minnesota is acquiring a pair of arms under club control for multiple seasons, as Paddack, who is earning $2.25MM in 2021 is only in his first season of arbitration eligibility. He’s controlled through the 2024 campaign. Pagan, meanwhile, is earning $2.3MM this season and is controlled through 2023 via arbitration. Rogers, 31, is set to earn $7.3MM this season in his final year of club control before reaching free agency. Rooker, 27, doesn’t yet have a full year of Major League service and is controllable through the 2027 season.
The 26-year-old Paddack and his three remaining seasons of club control headline the trade for Minnesota. The 2015 eight-rounder broke out as one of the sport’s top 100 prospects heading into the 2019 season and delivered on that hype when he posted a 3.33 ERA with a 26.9% strikeout rate and just a 5.5% walk rate through 140 2/3 innings as a rookie. At that point, Paddack looked like a cornerstone piece for the Friars, and any near-term trade involving him would’ve seemed nearly impossible to fathom.
Paddack, however, has been unable to repeat that brilliant rookie performance. His 2020 campaign resulted in a 4.73 ERA in with a diminished 23.7% strikeout rate. He still worked a “full” slate of 12 starts and 59 innings during the shortened 2020 season, but the results and the underlying metrics weren’t nearly as strong as his 2019 debut. Paddack’s 2021 season represented an even further step back; in 108 1/3 innings, he pitched to a 5.07 ERA with a career-low 21.6% strikeout rate. More concerning, though, was the fact that he ended the season with a low-grade tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow.
The Twins are likely convinced that Paddack’s elbow is healthy enough to rely on him as a rotation piece not only in 2022 but for the next several seasons. If that’s the case, they’ll focus their work with Paddack on further developing a third pitch to help him recapture his 2019 form. Paddack averaged 94.9 mph on his fastball last season and has been lauded for his plus changeup since his prospect days, but his curveball has been a below-average pitch for him at the big league level. If the Twins are able to help Paddack establish that third pitch, it stands to reason that his heater and changeup can trend closer to their 2019 effectiveness. There’s potential for a (second) breakout with Paddack, particularly given that his command has remained elite even through his 2020-21 struggles. The extent to which Minnesota can refine that third pitch (or develop an entirely new one) will be telling.
Minnesota is also picking up two years of control over the 30-year-old Pagan — another 2019 standout (with the Rays) who has had harder luck in San Diego. Acquired by the Padres on the heels of a 2.31 ERA with a dominant 36% strikeout rate and 4.9% walk rate in 2019, Pagan hasn’t been nearly as effective since being shipped to southern California. In 85 1/3 innings with the Friars, he posted a 4.75 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. Pagan has always been homer-prone, but that flaw ratcheted up to new levels in 2021 when he yielded an average of 2.27 long balls per nine frames.
Despite his recent struggles, however, Pagan has above-average strikeout rates and velocity. And, like Paddack, his command has been nothing short of outstanding (with the exception of the shortened 2020 season). He’s walked just 6.2% of his opponents at the big league level and has yielded only a .210 batting average and .264 on-base percentage in his career. A penchant for serving up home runs has been Pagan’s only real blemish, but if the Twins can clean up that issue — as the Rays did in 2019 and the Mariners did in 2017 — they’ll have a closing-caliber reliever on their hands for the next two seasons.
Coaxing a high-level performance out of Pagan will be all the more crucial for the Twins, as this morning’s trade sends their closer and one of the best left-handed relievers in all of baseball to San Diego. The 31-year-old Rogers has been a triumph in terms of player development for Minnesota, blossoming from a fairly nondescript back-of-the-rotation prospect to a late-inning buzzsaw who has overpowered opponents dating back to the 2018 season.
Rogers, whose twin brother Tyler pitches for his new division rival in San Francisco, added a slider to his repertoire back in 2018 — first debuting the pitch on Memorial Day weekend that year. The change in his results was stunning. Carrying a 5.48 ERA at the time, Rogers pitched to a 1.34 ERA for the remainder of the season and whiffed 57 hitters in 47 innings. There’s been no looking back for him, either. Since debuting that devastating breaking ball on May 31, 2018, Rogers has posted a 2.58 ERA (2.54 SIERA) with a massive 32.5% strikeout rate, a tiny 4.6% walk rate and a hearty 48% grounder rate. He’s been one of the absolute best relievers in MLB during that span, racking up 50 saves and, in 2021, making his first All-Star team.
Dominant as Rogers has been, however, he isn’t without his own medical concerns. The lefty’s 2021 drew to an abrupt close when he exited his appearance on July 26 with discomfort in his left middle finger. It was eventually determined that Rogers had a damaged ligament in his pitching hand. As the Twins are with Paddack, San Diego is clearly banking on the belief that Rogers is healthy and able to bounce back to his typical form. If that’s indeed the case, they’ll be able to turn leads over to one of the game’s more effective relievers for the 2022 season before Rogers reaches free agency in the offseason.
Rooker is the fourth known piece of the deal at this time and gives the Padres a power-hitting corner outfield option who has yet to piece things together at the MLB level. Selected with the No. 35 overall pick back in 2017, the former Mississippi State star breezed through the minor leagues, hitting .263/.359/.516 while showing off his plus raw power. Rooker’s bat will need to carry him at the MLB level, however, as he’s a college first baseman who the Twins tried rather unsuccessfully as a left fielder (-6 Defensive Runs Saved, -4 Outs Above Average, -9.7 UZR/150 in 268 career innings).
Rooker has a pair of minor league options remaining and isn’t necessarily an immediate fix to the Padres’ corner outfield woes. He’ll give them an option there, at first base and at designated hitter — one who has light-tower power but also one who has punched out in 32.1% of his 234 big league plate appearances (against just a 6.4% walk rate). The 6’3″, 225-pound Rooker gives San Diego an intriguing power bat but also something of a project, as he’s already 27 years of age and hasn’t yet proven that he can handle big league pitching. Given his lack of defensive value, it’s paramount for the Padres that they put the finishing touches on the development of Rooker’s bat.
The Twins have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter, and while they didn’t add the marquee name many fans hoped, they’ve now acquired both Paddack and Sonny Gray while also signing Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. That quartet will join rookie Opening Day starter Joe Ryan and under-the-radar sophomore Bailey Ober in comprising Minnesota’s main group of starters, but the Twins also have plenty of well-regarded prospects on the horizon. Jordan Balazovic, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino and Cole Sands are all getting close to the big leagues and could debut at some point in 2022.
As for the Padres, they’ll deal from a position of depth in order to strengthen the back end of their bullpen. Paddack has been a regular in the San Diego rotation for the past three seasons but was largely nudged out of the frame by a series of high-profile trade acquisitions. The Friars have added Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Mike Clevinger and, most recently, Sean Manaea over the past year-plus, and they also signed righty Nick Martinez to a four-year deal this winter. Add in young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Weathers and Adrian Morejon (who’ll return from Tommy John surgery later this season), and it’s easy to see why they felt comfortable moving Paddack. It’s certainly a risk to sell low on a starter with his upside, but the Friars are adding one of the game’s more successful relievers and clearly have sufficient rotation depth to make a move of this nature.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last night that the two teams were discussing trade scenarios involving Paddack and Rogers. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported this morning that a Paddack/Rogers trade was happening. Rosenthal reported that Pagan was in the deal, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Rooker’s inclusion. La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune added that the Twins will receive a PTBNL, and Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweeted that Minnesota was including some cash in the swap.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Padres Discussing Chris Paddack, Taylor Rogers
7:25pm: Talks between the two sides have also involved Minnesota closer Taylor Rogers, report Kevin Acee and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). There are certainly more players than just Paddack and Rogers in discussions, but the clubs are evidently contemplating scenarios that could see either team land immediate big league help.
6:36pm: The Twins and Padres are working on a trade that would send right-hander Chris Paddack to Minnesota, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). San Diego has been kicking the tires on possible Paddack deals in recent days.
Paddack, 26, has spent the past three years in the San Diego rotation. The Padres acquired the Texas native from the Marlins in a 2016 trade that sent closer Fernando Rodney to South Florida. It quickly became apparent that was a heist for San Diego, as Paddack developed into one of the sport’s better pitching prospects not long after.
The Friars carried Paddack on their Opening Day roster in 2019. He looked like a mid-rotation arm in the making as a rookie, working 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball. Paddack punched out a strong 26.9% of batters faced that year while only walking 5.5% of opponents. The 21.5 point gap between his strikeout and walk percentages checked in 17th among 130 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched.
Unfortunately, Paddack hasn’t built upon that success in the past two seasons. He pitched to a 4.73 ERA over 12 starts during the truncated 2020 schedule. That looked to be a possible small-sample blip, inflated by the fact that one in every four fly balls he allowed cleared the fences. Yet his ERA jumped again last year, checking in at 5.07 in 108 1/3 frames.
Paddack’s home run rate came back to earth, but he allowed nearly 40% of baserunners to score. That’s more a product of poor sequencing than anything else, and the Twins presumably believe he’ll more closely approximate his 76.4% strand rate of 2019-20 than last season’s mark moving forward. That said, one can’t approximate Paddack’s recent struggles entirely to home run and baserunner luck.
In each of the past two seasons, Paddack’s strikeout rate has dipped relative to the year prior. Last year’s 21.6% mark was a couple points below the league average, although his swinging strike rate has held steady in the 11% range. Perhaps even more concerning, he has allowed hard contact well above the league mark in each of the past two years. Paddack particularly struggled with right-handed batters last season, allowing same-handed opponents to put up a .325/.354/.547 line.
Those factors make him a difficult pitcher to value. He still sports excellent control, throws in the mid-90s, and owns an excellent changeup. Yet he’s also prone to a lot of hard contact and has seen his results go downhill over the past couple years. Moreover, he ended last season on the injured list due to inflammation in his throwing elbow. That hasn’t impacted him this spring, but it’s at least of moderate concern to any team considering acquiring him.
Paddack and the Padres agreed to a $2.25MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’ll be controllable via that process through 2024. There’s a case for the Padres to hold onto him in hopes of a bounceback, but it’s not clear there’s room for him in the rotation. Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, the recently-acquired Sean Manaea and Nick Martínez (whom they signed to a four-year deal this offseason) look like the season-opening starting five. Mike Clevinger will begin the year on the IL but will have a rotation spot whenever he returns. The Friars also have Ryan Weathers, one-time top prospect MacKenzie Gore and Reiss Knehr as depth options for any inevitable injury concerns.
Given that plethora of arms, the Friars have contemplated dealing from both their rotation depth. San Diego has reportedly been looking to upgrade in the corner outfield, but Rogers’ inclusion in talks with the Twins demonstrates the possibility for upgrades on other areas of the roster.
Rogers, 31, has emerged as one of the sport’s better late-inning arms. He posted an ERA between 2.61 and 3.07 in each season between 2017-19, tossing 55+ innings in all three years. The southpaw allowed a bit more than four runs per nine in the shortened 2020 season, but his underlying numbers remained excellent and he returned to form last year.
In 2021, the University of Kentucky product worked to a 3.35 mark over 40 1/3 innings. He punched out a career-high 35.5% of batters faced while walking only 4.8% of opponents, averaging a personal-best 95.5 MPH on his heater. Among relievers with 40+ frames, only Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias and Craig Kimbrel had a bigger strikeout/walk rate differential than Rogers’ 30.7 point gap.
With the Twins reeling towards a last-place finish, Rogers was a frequently-mentioned trade target leading up to the summer trade deadline. He sprained the middle finger on his pitching hand in late July, though, essentially killing any chance of a midseason deal. That proved a season-ending malady.
The Twins have been aggressive this offseason in an attempt to immediately bounce back. There’s not been much indication Rogers was available in trade this winter, yet he’s entering his final year of club control. He’ll play the 2022 campaign on a $7.3MM salary before hitting the open market, where he’s on track to be one of the top relievers available.
That dwindling window of control could increase Minnesota’ comfort parting with Rogers, particularly if the deal allows them to address a rotation that looks like the club’s weak point. The Twins have added Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer to join Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober in the starting five.
Both Bundy and Archer are coming off miserable 2021 seasons tarnished by injury. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has expressed confidence in the internal options, particularly with highly-regarded prospect Josh Winder on hand as the likely first call in the event of injury. Still, there’s enough uncertainty that adding to that group if the opportunity presented itself always seemed likely. There’s no guarantee a deal will get across the finish line, but the Twins pursuit of Paddack reflects they’re not averse to picking up another arm.