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Padres, Pirates Have Discussed Bryan Reynolds Trade

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9:55pm: The Padres currently consider the Pirates asking price on Reynolds to be “prohibitive,” writes Dennis Lin of the Athletic. That’s hardly a surprise, given the reported lofty asks the Bucs have sought in Reynolds talks with other teams.

9:21am: The Padres and Pirates have had recent trade discussions surrounding All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Young pitchers Chris Paddack and Ryan Weathers have both been mentioned as possible pieces going back to Pittsburgh, he adds.

It’s important to make a few key distinctions here. First and foremost, talks between the two parties don’t necessarily suggest that a deal is nigh — nor do they indicate that Pittsburgh is actively seeking to trade Reynolds. The Pirates have fielded Reynolds interest from more than a half-dozen teams since last summer alone, and he remains in camp with Pittsburgh.

Secondly, Paddack and Weathers are surely just two of a wide range of names that have been discussed. Even if both are of interest to the Bucs, additional pieces would assuredly need to be added. Paddack, for instance, is controlled for less time than Reynolds (three years to Reynolds’ four years) and is coming off a poor 2021 season that ended with an elbow injury. Weathers, meanwhile, is a former top-10 draft pick and top-100 prospect, but he was knocked around for a 5.32 ERA through 94 2/3 innings during last year’s rookie campaign. He’s controllable for another five years, at least.

As Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets, San Diego’s interest in Reynolds is not a new revelation. However, if they are indeed discussing specific players that could go back to Pittsburgh, that’d mark a sign of progression over prior, more preliminary talks, Acee adds.

Reports last night indicated that the Padres are open to trading from both their starting pitching and catching surpluses in order to address their needs in the outfield. Padres skipper Bob Melvin just yesterday acknowledged that the lack of outfield depth is “a concern.” San Diego has been considering the possibility of playing top shortstop prospect CJ Abrams in the outfield early this season.

At the moment, the Padres have Trent Grisham and Wil Myers locked into outfield slots, but their left field situation is particularly dire. Newly acquired first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty could see significant time there despite grading out as a poor defender. Switch-hitting utilityman Jurickson Profar is the other leading leading candidate, but he’s coming off a miserable 2021 season at the plate and has spent the bulk of his career playing the infield.

Reynolds is about as high-profile a target that Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller could explore. That’s par for the course for Preller, who typically explores any and all opportunities to acquire a marquee player, however slim the chances may be. Preller and Pittsburgh counterpart Ben Cherington have lined up on a couple of trades over the past 13 months or so, however, as Pittsburgh traded both Joe Musgrove and Adam Frazier to San Diego in separate deals. As such, it’s likely that Paddack, Weathers and quite a few other Padres youngsters have already been discussed in previous trade talks between the two sides. Those prior talks could serve as groundwork to an extent, but evaluations and opinions of young players can change rapidly over the course of even just a few months’ time.

Reynolds has also been aggressively pursued by the Marlins, dating back to last year’s trade deadline. Other teams known to have interest in the switch-hitting 27-year-old include the Mariners, Yankees, Braves and Brewers, among others. It’s easy to see why when looking at Reynolds’ career .290/.368/.490 batting line and, in particular, last year’s .302/.390/.522 output. Reynolds is controllable all the way through the 2025 season, though, and between his elite performance and that long-term control, the asking price on him figures to be sky-high.

For instance, Craig Mish and Barry Jacksonn of the Miami Herald recently reported that the Pirates sought both shortstop Kahlil Watson and right-hander Max Meyer in talks with the Fish. Both recent first-rounders rank among the sport’s top-50 overall prospects. In past trade talks with the Mariners, the Bucs targeted uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez as the starting point and sought additional pieces beyond him, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. With regard to the Padres, those prior asks on Reynolds underscore that Paddack and Weathers would likely be seen as secondary pieces, at best.

As for the Padres’ general outfield search, if they’re not able to strike up an agreement with the Pirates regarding Reynolds, there’s no shortage of alternative paths for them to explore. The Twins are known to be seeking rotation help and have plenty of outfielders — both in terms of established players (Max Kepler) and young, MLB-ready options with upside (Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff). The Yankees could use additional options on the mound and behind the plate, and they have a crowded outfield mix (which includes former Padres trade target Joey Gallo). The Angels are deep in young outfielders (e.g. Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh) and are always on the hunt for rotation help. The Mariners, similarly, could use another starter and have a deep collection of outfield talent on the 40-man roster. Preller could also look to Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays, though Mullins in particular is a Reynolds-esque long shot to be moved.

Padres Open To Trading From Rotation, Catching Depth

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With a little over a week until Opening Day, the Padres still have a highly uncertain outfield mix. Michael Conforto and Brett Gardner remain available in free agency, but the Friars are an estimated $6MM shy of the $230MM base luxury tax threshold and are reportedly reluctant to exceed that figure.

If they’re not content with their internal outfield options, a trade may be the better way for the front office to go. Dennis Lin of the Athletic reports the Padres are willing to entertain offers on some of their catchers or starting pitchers. Dealing from their depth in either area wouldn’t necessarily mean the Padres bring back a big league caliber outfielder in return, but it seems the front office is at least open to exploring those possibilities.

Neither development comes as a surprise. During the lockout, MLBTR noted the potential for San Diego to entertain trades from both the catching group and rotation depth. The Padres currently have four catchers on the 40-man roster, all of whom have reasonable claims to a spot on the MLB club.

Austin Nola is the presumptive starter. Luis Campusano is a top prospect who doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors after hitting .295/.365/.541 in Triple-A. Víctor Caratini is coming off a rough season, but he’s had success in the past and works well with Yu Darvish. Jorge Alfaro would appear to be fourth on the depth chart, but San Diego acquired him from the Marlins and he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues, meaning the Padres need to keep him on the active roster or designate him for assignment. The Friars presumably won’t carry all four on the Opening Day roster, even with rosters expanded from 26 to 28 players in the early going, so it’s natural they’d be open to dealing from that group.

On the pitching side of the equation, San Diego is set to open the year with a starting group of Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and Nick Martínez. That wouldn’t leave spots for any of Chris Paddack, Reiss Knehr or former top prospects Ryan Weathers and MacKenzie Gore. All four of those pitchers have options remaining, and the Friars could certainly opt to stockpile depth after seeing a series of rotation injuries contribute to a second-half collapse last year. Lin doesn’t specify any names whom the Padres are particularly inclined to move, to be clear. Yet as with the catching surplus, there may at least be enough depth for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to consider a move — particularly if one of those arms can bring back MLB-ready outfield help.

Trent Grisham is locked in as the center fielder, with Will Myers set to handle right field on most days. San Diego saw Tommy Pham depart in free agency, leaving Jurickson Profar and the newly-acquired Matt Beaty among the favorites for playing time in left. That’s not a great group of corner players for a hopeful contender, and the Pads have shopped both Myers and first baseman Eric Hosmer throughout the offseason. Lin writes they’re still exploring possible Hosmer deals, although moving much of the remaining four years and $59MM on his deal has proven too tough a task so far. It’d probably be easier to move Myers, but that’d just further thin the corner outfield group.

Aside from Myers, Profar, Beaty and Grisham, the Padres don’t really have outfield options on the 40-man roster. Lin writes that manager Bob Melvin has already ruled out the possibility of moving second baseman Jake Cronenworth off the position, something the organization considered but never tried last offseason. Alfaro has some experience in left field but shouldn’t be more than an emergency option there. Trayce Thompson and Nomar Mazara are in camp as non-roster invitees and could both get big league looks, but neither is necessarily an upgrade over Profar and Beaty.

More interesting than the possibility of any of those veterans getting a spot is the chance for top prospect CJ Abrams to break camp with the club. A consensus top 15 prospect, Abrams only has 42 games of Double-A experience. He impressed there last year, hitting .296/.363/.420 with a pair of home runs and 13 stolen bases, but his season was cut short when he fractured his left tibia in late June. That kept him from seeing his first Triple-A action.

Nevertheless, both Lin and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune have written this week the organization is considering carrying the 21-year-old on the MLB roster. That’s certainly not a given, as both Lin and Acee hear that some with the Padres believe he’d benefit from more time in the minors. Not only does he have limited experience against high level pitching, Abrams has never played a professional inning outside of the middle infield.

Given his athleticism — evaluators credit him with top-of-the-scale speed — there’s a belief he could handle all three outfield spots. Melvin acknowledged this afternoon he might give Abrams some consideration behind Grisham in center field (Acee link). Keeping him in the majors would allow San Diego some cover behind Cronenworth and Ha-Seong Kim in the middle infield while Fernando Tatís Jr. is on the injured list. Yet there’d certainly be risk in putting Abrams into a major league outfield right out of the gate, even in a utility capacity, and there’s an argument to be made for the Friars starting him at Triple-A El Paso. It’ll be known soon enough what route Preller, Melvin and the rest of the San Diego brass choose to take with the Opening Day roster.

Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: 27 Regulars Who Could Plausibly Change Teams

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In recent days, MLBTR has taken a look at some players who could find themselves on the move between the conclusion of the lockout and the start of the season. First, Tim Dierkes looked at the league’s 14 likeliest trade candidates. Steve Adams then ran through some impact players who, to varying degrees, could find themselves in trade rumors whenever transactions resume.

Today we’ll look at other regulars who we could envision changing uniforms in the relatively near future. Acquiring any of the players on today’s list wouldn’t be quite as splashy as landing the stars we covered last week, but it’s easy to envision any one of them assuming an important, regular role on a new team.

Before we get into the list, a quick note on methodology. In defining “plausible” trade candidates, we looked at players we felt had somewhere between a 20% and 50% chance of being dealt before the start of the season. It’s not meant to be an exhaustive list of trade possibilities — almost any player around the league could theoretically move if another team made the right offer — but it’s meant to capture a tier of regulars we wouldn’t be surprised to see change hands. In an exercise of this nature, there has to be a somewhat arbitrary line that delineates the last of the players who, in our view, are “plausible” trade candidates. Players like Gary Sánchez and Jesús Aguilar were discussed internally but fell just on the other side of that line.

Now, on to the list. The players are ordered by what we feel to be their likelihood of getting traded (all arbitration projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz):

John Means, Orioles SP

Buster Olney of ESPN reported in November that the Orioles were “dangling” Means in trade talks. Baltimore’s rebuilding and seemingly amenable to offers on anyone on the roster, but it remains to be seen how actively they’ll push to make their top starting pitcher available. With Means controllable through 2024 and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary, the O’s needn’t force a deal this offseason.

The 28-year-old presents a tricky evaluation for teams. He got off to an excellent start to the season, posting a 2.28 ERA (albeit with a 4.20 FIP) through his first 71 innings. Means then landed on the injured list with a shoulder strain. After returning in July, he posted a 4.88 ERA down the stretch, watching his strikeout rate tumble almost six percentage points in the process. The medical evaluation will be critical, but teams that are comfortable with the state of Means’ shoulder moving forward might expect him to regain the strong mid-rotation form he showed early in the year.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers SS/3B

Kiner-Falefa has been a solid regular for the Rangers for the past couple seasons. He spent 2020 at third base, then was tasked with moving up the defensive spectrum to shortstop last year. Defensive Runs Saved loved his glovework at short; Statcast’s Outs Above Average did not. Kiner-Falefa finished third in the 2021 Fielding Bible shortstop award voting. There’s not much question he’s a very good defender at the hot corner, and most teams would probably at least feel comfortable with him moonlighting at shortstop if need be.

Texas remade their middle infield in free agency, signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Kiner-Falefa could kick back to third base, but the Rangers have top prospect Josh Jung nearing big league readiness at the position. Controllable for two more seasons and projected for a $4.9MM salary, he could stick around as a utility guy. But if another team buys him as a plus defender at shortstop, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas ship him somewhere he can continue playing everyday. Kiner-Falefa’s .271/.312/.357 line fits better at the bottom of a lineup, but he brings good contact skills and a solid infield glove to the table. MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade at greater length this afternoon.

Raimel Tapia, Rockies LF

Reports out of Denver have suggested the Rockies could look to move Tapia, projected for a $3.9MM salary in his second-to-last arbitration-eligible season. The Rox need to bolster an offense that was among the league’s worst last year, and they’re seemingly planning to make a splash in the corner outfield. That’d probably push Tapia — who’s spent almost his entire MLB career in left field — out of the everyday lineup.

Tapia has never hit at the level one would hope from an everyday left fielder. One could argue he’s better suited for a fourth outfield role regardless. He’s a plus runner with good bat-to-ball skills, though, and he ranked among Baseball America’s top 50 overall prospects back in 2017. It’s certainly not out of the question another team takes a flier on him, particularly if the Rockies are willing to take a minimal return after acquiring his replacement.

Chris Paddack, Padres SP

The pre-lockout agreement with Nick Martínez bumped a bunch of the Friars’ younger arms down a peg on the rotation depth chart. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, that could pave the way for them to move one of their controllable starters. If they do, Paddack looks the likeliest of the bunch. He’s arbitration-eligible and projected for a $2.1MM salary. That’s certainly affordable, but the Padres could be looking to open some payroll space after exceeding the luxury tax threshold last year.

Paddack has had back-to-back down seasons after a promising rookie campaign. But he’s still only 26 years old, boasts pristine control, and teams can dream on him recapturing his 2019 form. That he’s controllable for three seasons could be of particular appeal to teams like the Rangers and Nationals (who expressed interest at last summer’s deadline) who might be eyeing 2023 as a more plausible contention year.

Ryan Yarbrough, Rays SP

Yarbrough has been a flexible member of the Rays pitching staff for the past few years. He’s worked variably as a traditional long reliever, a bulk man behind an opener and as a true starting pitcher. Yarbrough posted an ERA of 4.13 or lower in each of his first three seasons, but he scuffled to a 5.11 mark in 2021. That came without meaningful changes to his strikeout and walk numbers, though, and Yarbrough remained excellent at avoiding hard contact.

The Rays likely anticipate the southpaw will return to form, but his price is escalating. Tampa Bay is already projected for a franchise-record payroll, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they move some of their arbitration-eligible players for pre-arb or minor league talent. Yarbrough is projected for a $4.4MM salary and remains under team control through 2024.

Austin Meadows, Rays LF/DH

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote over the weekend that the Rays could be open to moving Meadows, who is projected for a $4.3MM salary. Controllable through 2024, Meadows would be a long-term option for Tampa Bay or any potential acquiring team, but the Rays have proven willing to field offers on almost anyone on the roster. And with the aforementioned payroll outlook for the typically low-spending club, the front office figures to be amenable to ways to pare back costs.

Meadows is coming off a decent season, in which he hit .234/.315/.458 with 27 homers over 591 plate appearances. That marked a bounceback from a below-average offensive showing during the shortened 2020 schedule, but it’s a fair bit shy of his career-best .291/.364/.558 line the season before that. Meadows isn’t a great defender, so he needs to mash to be a star. He did that in 2019, but he’s otherwise been a good-not-great hitter. That’s still a valuable player to have on hand, but unless the Rays anticipate him replicating his peak season this year, it’d be sensible to listen to offers.

Tony Kemp, Athletics 2B/LF

Kemp has bounced around the league a bit in recent seasons. He plays second base and left field, but advanced metrics have pegged him as a fringy defender at the keystone. Kemp doesn’t bring a ton of power to the table, and he’s already 30 years old. It’s not the easiest profile to make work, explaining why he has yet to find a long-term home.

There’s no questioning Kemp’s 2021 results, though. Over 397 plate appearances, he hit .279/.382/.418. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as worth around three wins above replacement. Kemp has excellent plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he could be trending towards a late-career emergence in the mold of former A’s second baseman Tommy La Stella. The market for teams on the hunt for second base help is pretty thin. Kemp, who avoided arbitration on a $2.25MM salary and is controllable through 2023, would be an affordable pickup if the A’s move him as part of their anticipated post-lockout efforts to trim payroll and reboot the roster.

Manuel Margot, Rays OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently looked at the possibility of the Rays making Margot available. He’s projected for a $5MM arbitration salary as he enters his final year of club control. That’s a reasonable salary for a player of Margot’s caliber, but Tampa Bay has plenty of cheaper, controllable outfielders on hand, and top prospect Josh Lowe looks ready to step into an everyday role somewhere in the grass after a monster season in Triple-A.

It’s not out of the question Tampa trades away multiple outfielders, but if they move the more expensive Kevin Kiermaier, Margot sticking around to handle center field is certainly possible. The latter might have broader appeal around the league, though. Not only is he set to make around a third of Kiermaier’s remaining guarantees, Statcast credited Margot with a league-best +16 Outs Above Average in the outfield last year. He’s never been more than an average hitter, but acceptable offense coupled with Gold Glove caliber defense is a very valuable player. There’s also a dearth of center fielders available in free agency at this point.

Max Kepler, Twins OF

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently broke down Kepler’s trade candidacy at great length. Guaranteed $16.25MM through 2023 and controllable for 2024 via club option, he’d be an affordable target for teams seeking outfield help. Yet Kepler’s offensive production has ticked down towards league average following what seemed to be a breakout showing in 2019. The Twins might prefer to hold onto him in hopes he rediscovers that form, but they just extended Byron Buxton and have former top prospects Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach in the fold as corner outfield options. A Kepler deal could be a creative way to address some of the team’s other issues in the starting rotation or at shortstop.

Danny Jansen/Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays C

The Jays’ catching depth has been a topic of conversation throughout the offseason. Would Toronto part with one of their controllable backstops to land help in the rotation or infield? The signing of Kevin Gausman probably diminishes their need to land an impact starter via trade, although they’re likely to at least look for depth pieces.

Reese McGuire is a capable backup catcher who’s out of minor league options. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno is rapidly approaching and could be in the majors by the end of the season. Jansen offers a solid bend of power and defensive acumen, while Kirk has otherworldly bat-to-ball skills and an elite minor league track record. Toronto doesn’t have to move anyone from this group, but it could be an opportunity to consolidate their catching depth for help elsewhere on the roster.

Amed Rosario, Guardians SS/CF

Cleveland acquired Rosario from the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor trade last offseason. His offensive numbers (.282/.321/.409) were fine, although neither Defensive Runs Saved nor Statcast was fond of his glovework at shortstop. Rosario’s aggressive approach at the plate will probably keep him from emerging as the star many envisioned he’d become as a prospect, but he has alright career hitting numbers, runs well and could be an option for teams at any of the up-the-middle positions on the diamond (aside from catcher).

The Guardians have a lot of infield depth, with several talented prospects in the high minors and already on the 40-man roster. With their seemingly annual need for outfield help, a Rosario trade could help balance the roster. Cleveland could also just give him more run in center or left field themselves, but it might be more straightforward to trade him to an infield-needy team with an outfield surplus. Rosario is projected for a $5MM salary and controllable through 2023.

Josh Bell, Nationals 1B

I covered Bell’s trade candidacy in greater length in late December. The Nationals are taking a step back in 2022, and he’s entering his final year of club control. A projected $10MM salary might scare away some suitors, but Bell would be a notable offensive upgrade for many teams around the league. The switch-hitter posted a .261/.347/.476 season-long mark, and he had an excellent 277/.381/.506 line with more walks than strikeouts after the All-Star Break.

Garrett Cooper, Marlins 1B/COF

Cooper has looked like a viable trade candidate for a few seasons. He’s part of a corner outfield/first base rotation in Miami that got a bit more crowded when the Fish signed Avisaíl García. The Marlins have suggested they could use García as their regular center fielder, but that’s less than ideal. If they land a center fielder after the lockout and push García to a more suitable right field role, Cooper might find himself squeezed for playing time.

A late bloomer, Cooper’s already 31 years old. He has quietly been a very productive hitter when healthy, though, including an excellent .284/.371/.478 line (133 wRC+) in 383 plate appearances since the start of 2020. Health is a big caveat for Cooper, who has had stints on the injured list in all five of his MLB seasons and missed the second half of last year with a left elbow injury. As MLBTR’s TC Zencka explored in December, he’d returned to taking batting practice and figures to be ready for 2022. Projected for a modest $3MM salary with an additional season of control thereafter, he could be an interesting flier, particularly for NL teams looking to add offense if/when the universal designated hitter is finalized.

Anthony Santander, Orioles RF/LF

Santander’s name has been floated around the rumor mill in years past. The Orioles are rebuilding, and he’s more of a complimentary piece than a likely member of the long-term core. Santander is limited to the corner outfield and has a very aggressive approach, though, making it crucial he makes plenty of contact and hits for power. He did that in the shortened 2020 season en route to a .261/.315/.575 line, but he couldn’t follow up on that success.

Last season, Santander had a couple injured list stints and struggled to a .241/.286/.433 mark. He signed for $3.15MM to avoid arbitration in November and remains controllable through 2024. Given their competitive window, the O’s would certainly listen to offers on Santander. But it remains to be seen whether there’ll be sufficient demand that Baltimore wouldn’t be better off hanging onto him and hoping he approximates his 2020 performance over the first few months of next season. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently explored Santander’s trade candidacy in greater depth.

Zach Plesac, Guardians SP

Plesac isn’t yet arbitration eligible and he’s controllable for another four seasons. The Guardians might simply prefer to hang onto him, particularly after their 2021 season was derailed by rotation injuries. Yet as mentioned with regards to Rosario, Cleveland has significant concerns in the outfield. They’ve dealt key starting pitchers over the past couple seasons, seemingly confident in their ability to continue to develop less-heralded prospects into capable rotation cogs.

If they were to deal a starter, Plesac would seem the likeliest candidate. The Guardians aren’t about to rebuild, and moving Shane Bieber or Aaron Civale might be too significant a blow to their hopes of contending in 2022. Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill might still have upside Cleveland’s hoping to unlock. Plesac’s small sample excellence in 2020 was probably inflated by a regional schedule against Central-division teams that, by and large, weren’t good offensively. That season aside, he hasn’t posted particularly impressive strikeout rates. But he’s got excellent control, gets a decent number of grounders, and should be a solid bet for league average rotation innings over the next few seasons.

Merrill Kelly, Diamondbacks SP

The D-Backs were the worst team in the National League last season. They don’t seem to have the appetite for a full rebuild, but Kelly’s entering his final year of club control. At age 33, he’s probably not an extension candidate, so Arizona figures to be open to moving him.

Kelly’s not an overpowering arm. He posted a 4.44 ERA over 158 innings last season, striking out only 19.5% of batters faced. He throws plenty of strikes, though, and he gets a decent number of grounders. Playing on a modest $5.25MM salary, Kelly would be an eminently affordable pickup for contenders looking to stabilize the back of the rotation.

Mitch Garver/Ryan Jeffers, Twins C

Garver missed a good chunk of last season after suffering a gruesome injury. During his 243 plate appearances, he mashed at a .256/.358/.517 clip with 13 home runs (137 wRC+). That’s two of the past three seasons with some of the best offensive output of any catcher in baseball. He’s controllable for two seasons and projected for a modest $3.1MM salary. Jeffers hasn’t yet hit arbitration-eligibility and still has minor league options remaining. He struck out too often as a rookie, but he hit for power and is a well-regarded defender who entered the year among the sport’s top catching prospects.

As with Kepler, a trade of Garver or Jeffers would probably be about dealing from an area of surplus to address the rotation or shortstop. Both players could plausibly be regular catchers next season, and they’d lose some of their value if penciled into the DH role regularly. Given Garver’s injury troubles, Minnesota might prefer to hold their depth behind the dish.

Elieser Hernández, Marlins SP

The Marlins have reportedly fielded offers on their arbitration-eligible starting pitchers this winter, perhaps in search of controllable outfield help. Miami already thinned their rotation depth a bit by including Zach Thompson in the Jacob Stallings deal, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they make one more move in that vein.

Over the past two years, Hernández owns a 3.84 ERA in 77 1/3 innings with very strong strikeout and walk rates (26.3% and 5.7%, respectively). He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s likely to always have some difficulty keeping the ball in the yard. He missed most of 2021 recovering from a pair of long-term injuries (biceps inflammation and a quad strain). Because of those drawbacks, he won’t be in as much demand as rotation mate Pablo López. Yet another team may try to take a shot on Hernández’s promising strikeout/walk profile, particularly since he’s only projected for a $1.4MM salary and controllable through 2024.

Chris Stratton, Pirates RP

I covered Stratton’s trade candidacy at greater length in December. He’s a 31-year-old reliever controllable for two seasons on a rebuilding team. The Bucs aren’t going to view him as a core piece of the rebuild, and it stands to reason they’d welcome the opportunity to pick up an intriguing low-level prospect. Over the past two seasons, Stratton has been the kind of capable if unexciting middle relief piece contending teams need. He won’t bring back a franchise-changing return, but at a projected $2.2MM salary, he should draw some interest.

Cole Sulser, Orioles RP

Sulser had a quietly strong second half with the Orioles, occasionally factoring into their closing mix. A late bloomer, he’ll be 32 by Opening Day. So while they’re under no contractual pressure to move him, the rebuilding O’s would certainly listen to offers. After putting up a 2.70 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate, he should be of interest to contenders. Sulser isn’t yet arbitration eligible and can be controlled through 2025.

Adrian Houser/Eric Lauer, Brewers SP

The Brewers certainly aren’t obligated to trade either of Houser or Lauer, both of whom are coming off strong seasons. Still, the Brew Crew already have a vaunted top three of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta and prospects Aaron Ashby and Ethan Small are at or nearing the big leagues. Might Milwaukee plug one of the younger arms into the rotation and flip a veteran back-end starter for offensive help?

Adalberto Mondesi, Royals 3B/SS

Mondesi’s an enigmatic player. He brings an enviable combination of power and speed and has enough athleticism to play a competent or better shortstop. He also has among the worst strikeout and walk numbers of any regular position player in MLB. Perhaps most alarming, he’s dealt with enough injury issues in recent years that Royals president of baseball operations Dayton Moore expressed some doubt about his ability to play more than 100 games per season regularly.

Nicky Lopez played well enough to supplant Mondesi at shortstop last year. Bobby Witt Jr. will probably take that position early in 2022, pushing Lopez somewhere else on the dirt. Whit Merrifield is still around as a second base option. Kansas City might have enough infield depth to explore a Mondesi trade, although it’d be a bit of a sell-low on a player with obvious physical gifts who’s controllable through 2023. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary.

Kyle Hendricks, Cubs SP

Hendricks is guaranteed $29.5MM through the next two seasons, with a vesting option that could keep him in Chicago through 2024. The Cubs have moved most of their core players dating back to last offseason, but Hendricks remains on the North Side. That might be attributable to some uncharacteristic struggles, as the righty’s coming off a career-worst 4.77 ERA with unimpressive peripherals.

Hendricks has never struck batters out or fared exceptionally well in the eyes of ERA estimators, though. Until last season, his actual run prevention handily outperformed metrics like FIP and SIERA as he thrived on exceptional command. He’ll probably bounce back, even if he may never recapture his Cy Young-caliber, 2.13 ERA form from 2016. With the amount of teams on the hunt for starting pitching, there’d no doubt still be demand if the Cubs made Hendricks available. Will they? Perhaps, since they’re not likely to compete in 2022. Yet their early-offseason activity — signing Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman, claiming Wade Miley — has suggested they may not be keen to punt next season entirely.

Trey Mancini, Orioles 1B

The Orioles aren’t going to compete in 2022, and Mancini is ticketed for free agency at the end of the year. Most players in his situation would be very straightforward trade candidates, but the first baseman is a fan favorite and reported clubhouse leader who made an inspiring return to the diamond last year after missing the 2020 campaign battling colon cancer.

That Mancini returned to play in 147 games after facing that kind of life obstacle is a remarkable achievement. It’s undeniable, though, that his production slipped relative to his excellent 2019 campaign. Mancini’s .255/.326/.432 line was only marginally above average, and he played exclusively first base and designated hitter. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see him bounce back into a middle-of-the-order presence as he gets further away from beating cancer, but demand for his services might be limited until his production rebounds. If that’s the case, it’s probably not worth it for the O’s to trade him away this offseason. He’s projected for a $7.9MM salary, but Balitmore’s 2022 payroll ledger is wide open.

Padres Discussed Chris Paddack As Part Of Trade Deadline Talks With Nationals

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Before the Dodgers acquired Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline, the Padres were known to also be in the hunt for both players, with San Diego reportedly coming particularly close to landing Scherzer before the Nats pivoted towards the Dodgers’ offer.  Top catching prospect Luis Campusano was discussed as part of the Padres’ negotiations with Washington, and The Athletic’s Dennis Lin reports that the Padres also “dangled” Chris Paddack as part of the Scherzer talks.

Paddack (who just turned 26 earlier this month) tossed 108 1/3 innings last season, as he was limited by three separate trips to the injured list due to COVID-19, an oblique strain, and then a slight UCL sprain that ended his season in mid-September.  The timing of that oblique strain could’ve played a role in Paddack’s deadline fate, as he pitched on July 27 but was then placed on the IL on July 31, the day after the deadline — the Padres might have taken Paddack off the table in trade talks knowing that he was about to be sidelined with an injury.

After posting a solid 3.74 ERA over 174 innings in 2019-20, Paddack took a step backwards in 2021, and it’s fair to guess that his injuries likely played some role in his lesser numbers.  Plus, Paddack’s 5.07 ERA was surely impacted by a very low 60.7% strand rate, and his 4.05 SIERA paints a more favorable impression of last season’s performance.

That said, Paddack’s Statcast metrics were decidedly subpar aside from his excellent walk rate, and his hard-contact and strikeout rates were also both troublesome in 2020.  Between these numbers and his injuries, it still isn’t quite clear after parts of three MLB seasons if Paddack can be a solid contributor to a rotation, or if he might ultimately be a fringe fifth starter or depth arm.

For this reason, San Diego could opt to keep Paddack until they know exactly what they have in a hard-throwing, controllable (through 2024) starting pitcher.  While Paddack might have been available as part of a Scherzer trade package, that doesn’t necessarily mean the right-hander would be available for just anything now, plus other teams would surely gauge Paddack a little differently given his post-deadline injury woes.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed earlier this week, the Padres technically have a rather a large surplus of rotation candidates if everyone is healthy, so Paddack or another arm could possibly be available in trade talks as San Diego looks to make other roster upgrades after the lockout.  On the other hand, “if everyone is healthy” is a big if for a Padres team that had so many pitchers sidelined with injuries last season.

Both Lin and Adams noted that the Padres might simply want to hang onto all their rotation depth until they know who or who isn’t healthy.  Paddack has also shown a degree of success at the MLB level already, so the Friars could prefer to keep such a big league-ready arm around as a rotation candidate, and instead look to move a pitcher who has little or no Major League experience.

Turning back to the deadline talks, it’s hard to compare offers since we don’t know the full scope of what exactly the Padres offered the Nationals for Scherzer and/or Turner.  The combo of Paddack and Campusano was certainly enough to get the ball rolling on talks, but obviously more was required to actually get Washington to part ways with either of its stars.  The Nats ended up accepting a four-player package (Keibert Ruiz, Josiah Gray and prospects Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey) from L.A. for both Scherzer and Turner, headlined by big league-ready youngsters in Ruiz and Gray.

Injury Notes: Paddack, Snell, Hill, Gallo

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It “seems more likely than not” that Blake Snell and Chris Paddack won’t pitch again for the Padres in 2021, sources tell Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.  With just two weeks left in the regular season, time is running out for either pitcher to return from the 10-day injured list.  Paddack was retroactively placed on the IL on September 12 due to right elbow inflammation, while a groin strain sidelined Snell on September 15.

Snell isn’t likely to pitch again unless San Diego is still playing into the postseason, while Paddack has some smaller chance of a quicker return, as he said his elbow felt fine after a game of catch yesterday.  Still, Paddack was only throwing lightly from a 75-foot distance, so it remains to be seen if he can progress quickly enough to get back on the mound before the regular season is over.  “Regardless of how [Paddack] is feeling the Padres almost certainly won’t even consider him pitching again in 2021 if they are not squarely in contention,” Acee writes, and that latter scenario is starting to look more remote.  The reeling Padres are 5-10 in September, and have dropped 2.5 games behind the Cardinals for the last NL wild card slot.

More updates on injury situations from around the game…

  • Tigers outfielder Derek Hill had to be helped off the field via a cart and a wheelchair after suffering a knee injury in yesterday’s 4-3 win over the Rays.  Hill was trying to beat out a bunt grounder to first base, and seemed to hyper-extend his knee while colliding with Tampa first baseman Ji-Man Choi.  While Hill was still being examined by team medical staff, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press) that an IL trip seems pretty inevitable for the 25-year-old.  It seems as if Hill’s rookie season might well be over, after 49 games and 150 plate appearances that saw the 2014 first-round pick hit .259/.313/.388 with three home runs.  Injuries have been a big factor in Hill’s season, as he missed time in two separate IL stints due to a left ribcage contusion and a right shoulder sprain.
  • Joey Gallo left the Yankees’ 11-3 loss to the Indians yesterday due to neck tightness, and is day-to-day.  Gallo took one plate appearance before being replaced in left field prior to the start of the fourth inning.  Manager Aaron Boone told The Associated Press and other media that Gallo was receiving treatment on his neck before the game, and “I think after his first at-bat, it was just barking too much on him.”  While the injury seems pretty minor, the Yankees surely want one of their hottest bats back as quickly as possible to aid their pursuit of a wild card berth.  Gallo got off to a slow start after being acquired by the Yankees at the trade deadline, but has posted a 1.490 OPS and six home runs over his last 25 PA.

Padres Place Chris Paddack On Injured List

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The Padres announced they’ve placed starter Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, due to right elbow inflammation. Shaun Anderson has been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take his spot on the active roster.

It’s yet another injury blow for the Friars’ rotation, which has dealt with IL stints at various points of the season for everyone except Joe Musgrove. Paddack himself missed a month with a strained left oblique, and the presence of an elbow issue is perhaps even more alarming on the surface. Fortunately, manager Jayce Tingler suggested the team believes Paddack could return after missing just one start (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com).

Paddack has had a difficult season, pitching to a 5.07 ERA over 108 1/3 innings. He’s posted strikeout (21.6%) and ground-ball (42.9%) rates not far off the league average, though, while his 4.8% walk percentage is stellar. Paddack’s resulting 4.05 SIERA is far less unsightly than his actual ERA, as the right-hander has stranded an abnormally low 60.7% of runners that have reached base against him. With better sequencing, Paddack should be better able to keep runs off the board moving forward — assuming, of course, he returns to good health in short order.

The Padres are left to rely on Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Jake Arrieta in the starting staff. Snell left last night’s start early with adductor tightness, leaving it in question whether he’ll be able to make his next start. The Friars will continue to have to patch things together in the rotation over the next few weeks, as they battle the Reds and Cardinals (with the Phillies and Mets also lurking not far behind) for the National League’s final playoff spot.

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.

Padres Activate Yu Darvish

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The Padres will activate Yu Darvish to start tonight’s ballgame, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register (via Twitter).

Daniel Camarena has been optioned to Triple-A to create the roster space to add Darvish, the team announced. Camarena served up the game-winning two-run shot to AJ Pollock in the 16th inning of yesterday’s marathon contest. The 28-year-old southpaw has generated more buzz for his work at the plate this season, hitting a grand slam off Max Scherzer in his first career plate appearance. He had an at-bat in last night’s game as well, but he went down swinging.

For his part, Darvish has been out since August 13th with lower back tightness. He has a 3.70 ERA/3.71 FIP in 23 starts covering 131 1/3 innings with a typically strong 29.9 percent strikeout rate, 5.7 percent walk rate, and lower than usual 36.0 percent groundball rate.

The Padres have seen their pitching depth ravaged by injuries this season. If they’re going to stay in the hunt for the second wild card game, Darvish’s healthy return would seem a likely requirement. Chris Paddack could also be on his way back after a successful three-inning simulated game, notes Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Padres Place Fernando Tatis Jr, Chris Paddack On 10-Day IL

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11:24PM: Season-ending shoulder surgery “would be on the table” for Tatis if he doesn’t show improvement during his 10-day IL stint, Tinger told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  However, Tatis is intent on playing again this year.

6:01PM: The Padres have placed shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. and right-hander Chris Paddack on the 10-day injured list.  Tatis is on the IL with left shoulder inflammation, after leaving last night’s game with a shoulder problem following a slide into third base.  Paddack has been sidelined with a left oblique strain, and his placement is retroactive to July 28.

In corresponding moves, the Padres also optioned righty Nabil Crismatt to Triple-A while calling up right-handers Miguel Diaz and Reiss Knehr, and newly-acquired outfielder Jake Marisnick was added to the active roster.

This is the second time Tatis’ bothersome left shoulder has sent him to the injured list this season, as he suffered a slight labrum tear back in early April but ended up missing only a minimal amount of time.  Tatis has since missed a couple of games with mild shoulder soreness, but Padres manager Jayce Tingler told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter links) and other reporters that Tatis’ shoulder was “more sore” in the aftermath of this injury than in his past shoulder aggravations.

According to Acee, there isn’t yet any indication that the Padres are considering shutting Tatis down in the wake of these recurring injuries.  If surgery is the only way to fully correct the problem, that would obviously sideline Tatis for the rest of this season and potentially into 2022, depending on the extent of the procedure and the severity of the shoulder damage.  The fact that Tatis has been able to bounce back multiple times this year and still produce at a superstar level provides some hope that he’ll also be able to recover from this latest setback, though it would seem to appear that Tatis will require more than just the minimum 10 days of recovery time.

There is no way to actually replace Tatis, of course, though San Diego’s acquisition of Adam Frazier last week now looks all the more important.  Jake Cronenworth can slide over to shortstop while Frazier takes over as planned at second base, but that scenario also interrupts the Padres’ initial plan — using Cronenworth at first base and Frazier as a super-utilityman around the diamond, providing cover for and depth behind Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers.  Ha-Seong Kim and Jurickson Profar are also on hand as utility options.

Losing Paddack is also no small matter for the Padres, who have been consistently hampered by rotation injuries all season.  San Diego was rumored to be looking at multiple starters prior to the trade deadline, but reliever Daniel Hudson ended up being their only new arm.  Paddack was scheduled to start on Sunday, but the Padres might now turn to Knehr or another option for tomorrow’s game.

Paddack has pitched better (3.92 SIERA) than his 5.13 ERA would indicate, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact.  Perhaps the key stat is 93 innings pitched, as Paddack has been a reliably durable member of the starting staff apart from a 10-day COVID absence early in the season.  The right-hander has a below-average strikeout rate but he has been one of the best at limiting free passes; Paddack’s walk rate is only five percent.

Padres Reinstate Chris Paddack From Injured List

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The Padres are reinstating right-hander Chris Paddack from the COVID-19 injured list to start today’s game against the Giants, the team announced. To create 40-man roster space, outfielder Jorge Oña was transferred to the 60-day IL. Oña underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery earlier this week and is expected to be out for six to eight weeks. Reliever Nabil Crismatt was optioned to clear active roster space.

Paddack went on the Covid IL on April 30, but he’ll return after just ten days away. The 25-year-old made five starts in the season’s first month, managing a 5.40 ERA/4.03 SIERA over 23 1/3 innings. It’s been a disappointing start on the heels of a similarly pedestrian 2020 season that saw Paddack work to a 4.73 ERA/3.91 SIERA in twelve starts.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for Paddack to right the ship. He boasts a mid-90’s fastball and quality changeup, and Paddack’s 6.7% walk rate is far better than average. He’s also not far removed from a 2018 season when he tossed 140 2/3 innings of 3.33 ERA ball and looked to be emerging as a high-end starter. Paddack will slide back into the star-studded San Diego rotation alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and Dinelson Lamet.

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