Cubs Acquire Isaac Paredes For Christopher Morel, Two Prospects
The Cubs and Rays have lined up on an eye-opening trade in advance of the deadline, as Isaac Paredes is on his way to Chicago. Christopher Morel and right-handers Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson, comprise the three-player package heading to Tampa Bay in the other end of the deal.
Paredes has been a popular figure in trade rumors in recent days, with such teams as the Dodgers, Astros, Rangers, and Mariners all linked to the All-Star. Instead, a more surprising suitor has won the bidding, as Paredes will instead go to a Cubs team that sits in last place in the NL Central with a 50-56 record.
Still, it isn’t entirely surprising that the Cubs have made such a bold move, as the team is clearly aiming to contend in 2025 after stumbling to their disappointing result this year. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said earlier this week that the Cubs’ deadline moves would be made with an eye towards competing next season as opposed to making a late run now, though Paredes is certainly a boost to Chicago’s lineup right now.
There are also some long-term ties at play, since Paredes began his pro career as an international signing for the Cubs back in 2015. He was moved along with Jeimer Candelario to the Tigers at the 2017 deadline in the trade that brought Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to Chicago, and Paredes made his MLB debut in a Detroit uniform in 2020.
Acquired in a trade with the Tigers early in the 2022 season, Paredes emerged as a very productive regular over his three years in Tampa. He has a 129 wRC+ over his 1377 plate appearances in a Rays uniform, highlighted by a 31-homer season in 2023 and an All-Star appearance this year. Despite a recent slump, Paredes is still hitting .247/.355/.438 with 16 home runs this season, across 425 PA while getting regular work at both corner infield spots.
Most of that work came at third base, and Paredes figures to take right over from Morel at the hot corner at Wrigley Field. Paredes’ glovework as a third baseman has been more solid than outstanding, yet even average defense is a big upgrade from Morel, whose struggles in the field have been well documented. The right-handed hitting Paredes could also spell Michael Busch (a lefty-swinger) at first base when a tough southpaw is on the mound, and Paredes also has a good deal of experience at second base, even though the Rays have used him only in the corner infield spots in 2024. On paper, however, the Cubs already have their 2025 starting infield set, with Paredes at third base, Busch at first, Nico Hoerner at second base, and Dansby Swanson at shortstop.
Infielders Matt Shaw and James Triantos are two of Chicago’s top prospects, so their arrival in a year or two could further shake up the Cubs’ infield picture and perhaps where Paredes ultimately ends up around the diamond. In perhaps the key element of today’s trade, the Cubs have plenty of time to figure this all out, as Paredes is under arbitration control through the 2027 season. Paredes is earning a $3.4MM salary this year, in the first of four arb-eligible seasons via his Super Two status.
Even though Paredes was only just starting his trips through the arb process, that escalating price tag surely factored into the Rays’ decision to part ways with a controllable, productive player who is still just 25 years old. With payroll always a concern in Tampa, the Rays have never shied away from selling high on a player before his price tag becomes too onerous for the organization, as part of the Rays’ constant churn of replacing pricier players for cheaper options that can provide similar or better production.
This strategy has been on full display since the start of July, as Tampa Bay has now moved Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Jason Adam, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, and Phil Maton in the last four weeks. This blitz of trades figures to continue right up until the July 30th deadline, and such names as Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks have also been mentioned as potential trade candidates. All of these moves have come despite the fact that the Rays are still playing solid baseball, as their 54-52 record has them only 3.5 games out of the final AL wild card berth.
Star prospect Junior Caminero has been expected to receive a longer look in the big leagues at this point this season, and very well could have been called up already if his minor league season hadn’t been interrupted by injuries. With Paredes traded, Caminero now has a clear path to regular playing time at third base, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Caminero in Tampa Bay later this week once the dust has fully settled from the team’s deadline moves.
Morel is only in his third Major League season, but he has thus far played at every position except first base and catcher as the Cubs have tried to find a suitable way to get Morel’s bat into the lineup. Second base could be a more viable option for Morel now that he is no longer blocked by Hoerner, or the Rays could cycle him into their first base/DH mix as well.
Perhaps the first order of business is getting Morel’s bat on track, as he has hit only .199/.302/.374 with 18 homers in 420 PA this season. Between this 93 wRC+ and his tough defensive number, Morel has been a sub-replacement level player in 2024, with a -0.1 fWAR. It is an unfortunate setback for the 25-year-old, who hit a much more respectable .241/.311/.471 with 42 homers in his first 854 MLB plate appearances.
There is probably always going to be a lot of swing-and-miss in Morel’s game, but even being a “three true outcomes” type of player has plenty of utility if Morel can keep drawing walks and putting the ball over the fence. The Rays are also surely thinking that a change of scenery could benefit Morel, or perhaps that the team’s own staff can help him unlock some greater potential (as has been done with Paredes and a number of other hitters who can come through Tampa’s organization).
Bigge was a 12th-round pick out of Harvard in the 2019 draft, and he made his MLB debut just this month, amassing a 2.70 ERA in his first 3 1/3 innings (over four appearances) in the Show. Bigge has worked only as a reliever in his pro career, and delivered a 4.25 ERA across 159 innings in the minors, with a big 30.42% strikeout rate but also a 15.06% walk rate.
The control is the biggest obstacle preventing Bigge from fully realizing his potential, as MLB Pipeline rates his cutter, slider, and his upper-90s fastball all as plus pitches, and his curveball also has promise. However, Pipeline puts Bigge only 29th in their ranking of Chicago’s prospects, with those control problems in mind. Bigge has so much tantalizing stuff that it is easy to see why the Rays had interest, and given Tampa Bay’s history of pitching development, nobody would be surprised if Bigge becomes a dangerous bullpen weapon with his new team.
Johnson was a 15th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2023 draft, and the Ball State product has a 3.54 ERA in 61 total innings in 2024 (33 2/3 frames in A ball, and 27 1/3 innings at high-A). Starting 10 of his 18 games, Johnson has also shown some nice ability to miss bats, with a 32.5% strikeout rate in his brief pro career.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (X link) was the first to report that Paredes was heading to Chicago. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Rays were receiving Morel as part of a three-player package, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma reported Bigge and Johnson as the other two players.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline
This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.
Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”
While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.
It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.
Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).
Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.
Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.
Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.
If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.
Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.
This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.
Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.
The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.
Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.
Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.
Cubs Considering Alternatives To Christopher Morel At Third Base
As noted this morning by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Cubs have “evaluated alternatives” to third baseman Christopher Morel this season, with one such alternative possibly being top prospect Matt Shaw.
Morel has started 50 of the team’s 66 games this year at third base, taking over from the group that shared the position down the stretch last season: Nick Madrigal, Jeimer Candelario (now with the Reds), Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom. Madrigal started 11 games at third this year (and filled in as a defensive replacement on 25 other occasions), but he was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month and is currently on the minor league injured list. Wisdom, meanwhile, has played a utility role off the bench, taking reps at first base, third base, right field, and DH. Mastrobuoni also played a utility role before he was optioned in mid-May.
Prior to this season, Morel had only played 180 2/3 MLB innings at the hot corner, having spent more time in his first two seasons at second base and in the outfield. However, he played 156 games at third base in his minor league career – more than any other position – and after his strong performance at the plate last year (26 home runs and an .821 OPS in 107 games) the Cubs wanted to find him a position to keep his bat in the lineup on a regular basis. Unfortunately, his glove has been all but unplayable at third base this year. Morel has already made eight errors, and his -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -11 Outs Above Average (OAA) both rank last among all third basemen. In fact, his -11 OAA ranks dead last in all of baseball.
To make matters worse, Morel’s bat has not been what it was last season. While he is on pace for nearly 30 home runs, his .702 OPS is barely above the league average. That’s not terrible, but his .203/.315/.388 slash line certainly doesn’t justify his awkward fit at third base. His .375 xwOBA (10th among qualified NL batters) suggests he’s due for some positive regression, but even if he starts hitting again, it’s become clear he’s a much better fit at DH (where has has started his other 15 games) than third base.
Unfortunately for the Cubs, they aren’t exactly flush with other options. Madrigal has a smooth glove, but his bat is a serious weakness; he has a .616 OPS over three seasons with the Cubs and a .535 OPS this season. Wisdom is off to a poor start at the plate himself, and his defensive metrics at third base over the past few years have been nearly as bad as Morel’s. Mastrobuoni has never looked like more than a bench piece, and the same could be said of David Bote.
Therefore, unless the Cubs are planning to look outside the organization for a new third baseman, their best solution could be a prospect like Shaw. The 22-year-old is currently playing for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies, with whom he has a 118 wRC+ in 69 games over the past two years. Shaw got the bulk of his starts at shortstop last season, but he has slid over to third for 35 out of 54 games in 2024. His glove will never be a standout tool; like Morel, he just needs a position so he can get his powerful swing and quick legs into the lineup.
Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs all have Shaw ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the Cubs organization, which is widely considered one of the deepest farm systems in the game. On the more bullish side, Keith Law of The Athletic recently put Shaw 15th overall, tops among Cubs farmhands. Given Shaw’s young age and lack of experience above Double-A, he won’t be the immediate answer in Chicago. As Mooney puts it, the Cubs are “open to the possibility” that Shaw “could eventually become part of the solution.” Until then, the Cubs might just have to hope Morel turns it around at the plate enough to mask his struggles with the glove. He may already be doing just that, with a .934 OPS in his last 10 games.
The Cubs’ Third Base Possibilities
Few teams have been linked more prominently to Matt Chapman this offseason than the Cubs. Chicago’s recent move to re-sign Cody Bellinger on an $80MM guarantee makes that decidedly less likely. Chapman remains on the open market but the Bellinger deal pushed the Cubs to the edge of the luxury tax threshold.
There aren’t many other external options. Maybe there’s a trickle-down effect once Chapman does sign — the Giants may be the favorite for his services and could market J.D. Davis if they landed him — but the Cubs seem likelier to stick with their in-house candidates. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested at the Bellinger press conference that Chicago feels good about the roster as it stands, although he said the front office would consider opportunities that might present themselves.
Let’s run through the current options to take the hot corner:
While Madrigal doesn’t look the part of a third baseman, he narrowly led the team in playing time there last season. Previously a career-long second baseman, Madrigal handled himself well defensively. Statcast credited him with 10 runs above average in only 560 1/3 innings. The range he’d shown in the middle infield remained on display. Before he moved across the diamond, there was concern about his arm strength. That wasn’t much of an issue. Madrigal doesn’t have a great arm, but it’s not poor enough to prevent him from making most plays.
The bigger question is whether he hits enough to profile as a regular anywhere on the diamond. Madrigal’s very slight frame leads to minimal power projection. He has preternatural bat-to-ball skills but needs to hit a lot of singles to compensate for the lack of power and very low walk rates. Last season’s .263/.311/.352 batting line in 294 plate appearances more closely resembled utility production.
Wisdom has the polar opposite profile from Madrigal. He has massive raw power and has topped 20 homers in three straight seasons. He connected on 23 longballs in only 302 plate appearances a year ago. While Madrigal has perhaps the best pure contact ability of anyone in the majors, Wisdom swings and misses as much as any regular. He fanned in nearly 37% of his plate appearances last season, a rate he has matched over three-plus years in Chicago.
The end result was a .205/.289/.500 slash. Chicago valued his power production enough to keep him around on a $2.725MM arbitration contract. That’s not an exorbitant cost for a right-handed bench bat, a role that probably suits Wisdom better than playing regularly at third base. He has an above-average arm but limited range, leading to subpar defensive grades in each of the last two years.
Morel, 24, might have the best physical tools for the job. He has big power, blasting 26 homers in 107 games a year ago. Morel has hit 42 longballs over his first 854 MLB plate appearances. That comes with a lot of strikeouts, albeit not quite at Wisdom levels. He punched out 31% of the time last season, hitting .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips.
Even with a lot of whiffs, Morel is a valuable hitter. He has had a much harder time on the other side of the ball. Despite being a good athlete with top-of-the-scale arm strength, Morel has rated poorly in the outfield and in a very limited sample of third base work. Hoyer suggested early in the offseason the Cubs felt he’s best suited at second base, but Nico Hoerner has that position secure in Chicago.
That makes third base the logical choice. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters that they’ll play Morel primarily at the hot corner this spring (link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). It’d be a major boost for the Cubs if he’s capable of handling the position. If he doesn’t show the necessary hands or instincts to play there regularly, they’d be left looking for ways to shoehorn his bat into the lineup.
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The job is likely to fall to someone from that trio early on, with Madrigal and Morel standing as the likeliest options. Miles Mastrobuoni picked up 24 starts there last season. He remains on the 40-man roster but projects for a depth role after hitting .241/.308/.301 through 145 plate appearances.
Trade acquisition Michael Busch logged a bit of third base action as the Dodgers experimented with ways to get him into the lineup. He’s not a particularly good defender anywhere, the biggest reason he never forced his way into everyday reps in Los Angeles. The Cubs are planning to give him more regular run at first base, although he could theoretically move across the diamond from time to time if Chicago moved Bellinger to first base to plug Pete Crow-Armstrong into center field.
The Cubs entered the 2023 season with a similar group as they have now. They addressed the position at the deadline with the Jeimer Candelario trade. That could be the path again — Davis and Brandon Drury are among the players who could move this summer — but there’s also a chance that last year’s first-round pick forces his way to Wrigley Field midseason.
Matt Shaw is already viewed as one of the sport’s most promising minor league hitters. The Maryland product shredded pro pitching at a .357/.400/.618 clip after the draft. He only has 15 games of Double-A experience, so he won’t be an option on Opening Day. As an advanced college bat, he could get to the big leagues by the end of his first full professional season. Shaw was a middle infielder with the Terps, but third base is the clearest path to an MLB debut in 2024.
NL Central Notes: Frelick, Morel, Reds
The Brewers signed top prospect Jackson Chourio to a pre-debut extension back in December, and in doing so their outfield logjam for the 2024 season all the more apparent. While the club made some room on the depth chart by shipping Tyrone Taylor to the Mets alongside Adrian Houser earlier in the offseason, the club still figures to have Chourio, Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Blake Perkins all in the mix for outfield reps entering the 2024 campaign. That positional logjam has led to plenty of speculation that the club could look to trade from its depth to address other parts of the roster, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested today that the club could have another, novel solution to the glut in mind: moving Frelick to the infield.
Frelick, 24 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and made his big league debut last season. In 57 games at the big league level last year, the lefty-swinging outfield slashed a decent .246/.341/.351 for the Brewers, putting him right around league average despite modest power production. While his first taste of big league action may have left something to be desired, Frelick was a consensus top-40 prospect entering the 2023 season and sports a career .314/.393/.451 slash line for his career in the minors, including a .311/.388/.432 line at the Triple-A level. Despite that strong pedigree, Frelick appears blocked in the outfield by likely regulars Yelich, Chourio, and Mitchell.
Given this, it’s not necessarily a surprise that Frelick has garnered interest on the trade market. The youngster was recently reported as of interest to the Padres, who have a barren outfield mix after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx earlier this winter. With that being said, the Brewers appear, at least for now, appear to be looking for ways to get Frelick’s bat into their own lineup rather than shipping him elsewhere. Rosenthal reports that Frelick is preparing to play both second and third base in addition to the outfield this spring. With Willy Adames entrenched at shortstop barring a trade, Frelick would join an infield mix in Milwaukee that currently features Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang as the likely starting options with Andruw Monasterio, Owen Miller, and top infield prospect Tyler Black also in the mix for playing time.
More from around the NL Central…
- Speaking of youngsters attempting to learn the infield, Cubs manager Craig Counsell recently indicated to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that slugger Christopher Morel is set to primarily focus on getting reps at third base this spring. Morel, 25 in June, slashed an impressive .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips to the plate last year while slugging 26 home runs in just 107 games. Most of that production, however, came out of the DH spot in the lineup. Morel’s rookie 2022 campaign saw him split time between second base, third base, shortstop, and center field though he struggled at every position except second, where the Cubs have Gold Glover Nico Hoerner as an everyday option. The Cubs previously seemed poised to rely on a combination of Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni at third base, though if Morel can prove himself capable of regular reps at third base he could open the DH spot for an additional bat via free agency or for the club to use as a way to rest regulars.
- As relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer and Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds provided a pair of minor injury updates today. Most notable is that regarding infielder Noelvi Marte, who suffered a hamstring injury while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic. The youngster appeared to be recovering well last month, and the good news has continued as both Marte and Reds brass indicate he should be ready for Opening Day, though he will be delayed in the start to his spring as he’s expected to miss the first five games of Cactus League action. Left-hander Sam Moll is also delayed entering camp, with Wittenmyer and Goldsmith relaying the southpaw dealt with a bout of shoulder soreness while ramping up last month. That’s led the club to put off Moll’s first bullpen session of the spring, though the 32-year-old hurler has continued to play catch and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Moll impressed with the Reds down the stretch with a 0.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 25 appearances after being acquired from Oakland last summer.
Hoyer, Hawkins Downplay Possibility Of Christopher Morel Trade
There’s been plenty of chatter regarding Cubs slugger Christopher Morel as a potential trade candidate this offseason, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and general manager Carter Hawkins downplayed any such possibilities over the weekend when talking with fans in a Q&A at Cubs Convention (link via Marquee Sports’ Tim Stebbins). Hoyer repeatedly used the phrase “zero basis in truth” regarding Morel speculation. He added that while the slugger might not have a set position this coming season, he’ll likely be used all over the diamond.
“We’re gonna have injuries all the time,” Hoyer said. “We’re gonna need [versatility], and the more positions you can play, the better. He’s going to have a big impact on the team.”
Morel’s name has indeed surfaced a lot on the rumor circuit this winter — in part due to a lack of a clear defensive home. His best position, second base, is spoken for by Nico Hoerner, who was pushed there by the team’s signing of Dansby Swanson. Morel has played all three outfield positions, but the Cubs have Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked into corner spots. Veteran Mike Tauchman is in the mix in center field but perhaps only as a placeholder to top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is considered one of the best defensive center fielders in the sport. The Cubs have gotten Morel some looks at first base during winter ball, but their recent acquisition of slugger Michael Busch from the Dodgers might impact that possibility.
It should be noted, of course, that some of the speculation regarding Morel’s status stems from comments Hoyer himself made on the record earlier this winter. While he never plainly stated that Morel was available in a trade or even being discussed, Hoyer acknowledged “another team might be able to put him [at second base]” when discussing his defensive home and the decision to get Morel some winter exposure at first base. As we noted at the time, that’s far from a declaration a player is on the trade block, but it’s nevertheless understandable that many took the comment and began to consider the possibility. At various points this winter, reporting from the Chicago Tribune, ESPN and USA Today have all suggested that, to varying extents, Morel’s name has at least surfaced in trade talks.
Hoyer and Hawkins pushing back on the narrative is natural, particularly given the backdrop against which those comments were made. Cubs Convention is heavily attended by fans, many of whom would bristle at the notion of seeing Morel shipped out. Publicly pushing back on the notion of a trade surely offers some peace of mind to the player himself, too. The offseason is now months old, and other clubs have surely called to at least inquire on Morel. The Cubs presumably have a feeling on what the realistic possibilities might be, and if there’s nothing that’s piqued their interest by now, the chances of something new being presented in the remaining few weeks seem quite thin. Neither Hoyer nor Hawkins definitively stated Morel will not be traded, but the obvious implication was that it’s a highly unlikely scenario.
Morel, 24, has seen big league time in each of the past two seasons with the Cubs and shown off considerable power in addition to alarming swing-and-miss tendencies. In 854 plate appearances, the righty-swinging slugger has belted 42 home runs while adding 36 doubles and seven triples. He’s swiped 16 bags as well, albeit in 25 tries (64% success rate).
Morel has walked at a roughly average clip and doesn’t chase off the plate at an egregious rate — his 32.8% rate is less than one percentage point north of 2023’s league average 31.9% rate. However, Morel’s contact skills are suspect. He’s fanned 31.6% of his MLB plate appearances while logging contact rates more than 10 percentage points south of the league average both on pitches off the plate and those within the strike zone. Morel’s 64.5% contact rate on pitches inside the zone is well shy of last season’s 76.4% league average, and his 50.5% contact rate on pitches off the plate is similarly distanced from the league-average 62.4%. He’s had issues with contact in the minors as well; Morel fanned in 30.6% of his Triple-A plate appearances in 2023 and in 29.7% of his Double-A plate appearances in 2021.
Suffice it to say, while Morel’s power is quite intriguing, there are still some notable areas for improvement. That’s true of many 24-year-olds, of course, most of whom don’t have the type of power output Morel has already shown in the big leagues. He may need to improve his contact skills, pitch selection and/or defensive aptitude — Morel hasn’t graded as an above-average defender at any of the six positions he’s played — but the Cubs clearly believe in his long-term potential. Scouting reports on Morel have long questioned his hit tool, but his power, speed and throwing have consistently drawn plus marks.
The Cubs control Morel all the way through the 2028 season, and he still has a minor league option remaining as well. There’s little urgency for them to move him, and even if he never makes huge gains in terms of contact rate, there’s a role as a bat-first utilityman with impressive power that can clearly be achieved.
Central Notes: Guardians, Cubs, Cease, Gorman
The Guardians have hired Dan Puente for an unspecified role on their major league coaching staff, per a report from The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Puente, 42, was a 12th-round pick in the 2004 draft by the Orioles and played in the minor leagues for two seasons, though he didn’t make it past the Single-A level before retiring from professional baseball. During his post-playing career, Puente took roles in the Astros and White Sox organizations before eventually landing a hitting coach gig in the Cubs‘ minor league system prior to the 2020 campaign. He’s remained with the Cubs as a minor league hitting coach ever since, most recently coaching at High-A South Bend this past season.
While it’s not yet known what role Puente will take on in Cleveland, it’s worth noting that the Guardians lost assistant hitting coach Victor Rodriguez to the Padres earlier this winter when Rodriguez was offered a job as hitting coach under new manager Mike Shildt. Cleveland’s coaching staff has seen some noticeable turnover this winter, headlined by longtime skipper Terry Francona’s retirement from managing. Since Stephen Vogt was hired to take over for Francona as manager, the club has added Craig Albernaz as bench coach and Kai Correa as fielding coordinator. The club’s new coaching staff figures to have their hands full as they look to return to contention after a surprising third place finish in a weak AL Central division last year. The club’s 76-86 record put them two games behind the Tigers for second place and a whopping 11 games back of the Twins for the division crown.
More from the league’s Central divisions…
- Cubs fans enjoyed the club’s annual Cubs Convention this weekend, and comments from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer regarding the club’s offseason were among the events on the event itinerary. As noted by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Hoyer seemingly pumped the breaks on trade rumors regarding young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has swirled in trade rumors throughout the offseason. While Morel wasn’t in attendance at this weekend’s festivities, Mooney relays that Hoyer described the idea that Morel’s absence was due to a potential trade in the works as “laughable.” Morel slashed a solid .247/.314/.508 while slugging 26 homers in just 107 games in 2023, though his position for the 2024 season is up in the air after spending much of last season at DH.
- White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been the topic of plenty of trade talks throughout the offseason, and WEII’s Rob Bradford recently spoke to the hurler about the barrage of rumors about his future this winter. Cease told Bradford that he takes most rumors “with a grain of salt” and noted that he hasn’t spoken with the club’s front office about the possibility of a trade, though he did acknowledge that “Publicly saying it’s an option is like an indirect way of letting me know.” Cease added that whether or not he’s traded has no impact on his offseason work, saying that “At the end of the day, it really isn’t my job… My job is to perform wherever I go and be a good player.” The 28-year-old righty is coming off a down season where he pitched to a 4.58 ERA over 33 starts put finished as the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award just one year prior after posting a 2.20 ERA in 184 innings of work back in 2022.
- Back issues played a role in limiting Cardinals infielder Nolan Gorman to just 119 games last year, and Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch relays that the 23-year-old slugger has changed his offseason routine in hopes of staying healthy throughout the 2024 campaign. While Gorman told Guerrero that he hasn’t been able to pin down a specific cause of the issues, he’s been focusing on mobility and flexibility this offseason while working with a nutritionist to best prepare himself for the upcoming season. Gorman flashed impressive power in 2023, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers in just 119 games last year. Gorman split time between second base, third base, and DH last season and figures to split time between second base and DH with Brendan Donovan headed into the 2024 campaign.
Latest On Christopher Morel, Tyler Glasnow
7:45pm: Nightengale tweets that while Morel’s name has come up in discussions on Glasnow, the Cubs are reluctant to move him for a player with one year of team control. Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic, on the other hand, write that Morel has not come up in any recent discussions about Glasnow.
3:34pm: The Cubs are one of many clubs to have known interest in Rays’ right-hander Tyler Glasnow and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports today that Christopher Morel‘s name has surfaced in those talks.
It’s unclear which club decided to make Morel part of the negotiations but it was reported last month that the Cubs were willing to make Morel part of the return in a potential Pete Alonso trade. Perhaps Morel has been squeezed out of the plan in Wrigley and the club is shopping him around to see what he could bring in return.
The tricky thing with Morel is that he has tremendous power in his bat but doesn’t have a perfect spot to fit onto the Cubs’ roster. He’s hit 42 home runs in his first 854 plate appearances, despite a 31.6% strikeout rate. His .241/.311/.471 batting line thus far translates to a wRC+ of 114. But attempts to have him line up defensively at shortstop, third base or the outfield haven’t gone well. His work at second base is passable but the Cubs have a set middle infield of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner.
It was reported about a month ago that the Cubs would get Morel some first base reps in winter ball, though that wouldn’t be an ideal fit for him either since he has 99th percentile arm strength. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at that time that “another team might be able to put him” at second base.
It seems as though the Cubs may feel as though the best use of the talent on their roster is to explore trades for Morel and perhaps address first base in some other way. He still has five years of club control remaining and hasn’t yet reached arbitration, which should give him plenty of appeal. It was reported earlier today that the club is discussing various contract structures with first baseman Rhys Hoskins. If they can get something done there and also flip Morel for some pitching help, perhaps that is a preferable path to paying for pitching and using Morel at first base.
That will naturally depend on how the talks proceed and whether the Rays want Morel to be the center of any Glasnow return. The Rays have a solid second baseman in Brandon Lowe. He has missed some time due to injuries in the past two seasons but has still been able to hit at an above-average rate. He’s also controlled at an affordable rate through 2024 with a couple of reasonable club options after that. The club also has Isaac Paredes and Jonathan Aranda as guys on the roster capable of playing second.
Acquiring Morel is probably not the first choice for the Rays, given their incumbent infield options. Though they are considering moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary, they have obvious rotation needs and will need to think about bringing in cheaper pitching in the event they pull the trigger on a trade. With each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs set to miss most or all of the 2024 season due to elbow surgeries, the rotation isn’t in great shape. They still have Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale but some question marks beyond that. But Glasnow’s salary and perpetual payroll concerns in Tampa might lead them to try to balance saving money while still running out a talented roster.
The Rays are generally unafraid to make deals and could perhaps also flip Lowe for pitching in addition to acquiring Morel in a Glasnow deal, though that would require further conversations with other clubs and it might be easier if they just have an offer that involves a younger pitcher coming to them directly in a Glasnow deal. It’s also possible that the Cubs and Rays discussed larger trade scenarios involving more than just Glasnow and Morel, as clubs often consider all kinds of plausible scenarios at this time of year.
The Rays have also received interest from clubs such as the Cardinals and Reds while there are also plenty of other speculative fits. Some of those clubs may be pursuing big free agents like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery and may pivot to the trade market if they come up short there. Perhaps the Rays will wait to see if they can get a few more clubs on the line after the free agent market moves a bit more, but they could also strike quickly if they find a deal that they truly like.
MLBTR Poll: Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel?
On the heels of a 83-79 season that saw the Cubs finish just outside of the NL playoff picture, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office appear poised to be aggressive this offseason in their pursuit of returning the club to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game campaign since 2018. Chicago already shocked the baseball world this offseason by hiring Craig Counsell to manage the club on a record-setting contract and has been connected to high-profile free agents such as NPB arms Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and Yuki Matsui as well as center fielder Cody Bellinger and first baseman Rhys Hoskins, to say nothing of two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani.
In addition to the rumors swirling around the Cubs and many of the league’s top free agents, the Cubs have been connected to many of the league’s top trade candidates including Padres outfielder Juan Soto, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, and even Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes. At the center of many of those hypothetical trade discussions has been young slugger Christopher Morel, whose name has appeared in early offseason trade rumors so frequently that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ranked him #22 in his list of the Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates.
Morel made his MLB debut back in May of 2022, just before his 23rd birthday. The youngster initially broke onto the club’s roster due to an injury to Jason Heyward, which provided Morel with the opportunity to get semi-regular reps in center field with the big league club despite having never played above the Double-A level to that point. Morel made the most of his opportunity, sticking on the club’s roster throughout the rest of the 2022 season and slashing .235/.308/.433 (108 wRC+) in 113 games while splitting time between center field, second base, third base, and shortstop.
That above-average offensive production and impressive versatility in Morel’s rookie season gave him the look of a potential big league regular, though there were certainly flaws in his profile. Morel was a well below average defender in center and seemed to be a fringy defender at both third base and shortstop as well, despite a solid showing at second base. On top of the defensive question marks, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s above-average slash line was carried by a hot first half; the youngster slashed just .194/269/.376 in 184 trips to the plate during the second half in 2022. Between that late-season slump and his 32.2% strikeout rate, which was sixth-highest in the majors among players with at least 400 plate appearances that year, it was fair to wonder if Morel’s production would be sustainable entering his sophomore season.
The questions about Morel’s glove were only exacerbated by the signing of Dansby Swanson, who slotted in at shortstop and kicked Nico Hoerner over to second base in doing so. With Hoerner now an obvious everyday solution at second base, Morel entered the 2023 season without a clear role on the big league club and started the season at Triple-A. He tore the cover off the ball with a comical .330/.425/.730 slash line in 29 games with the club’s Iowa affiliate before the Cubs had seen enough to bring him up to the big leagues. Though he logged occasional time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop, Morel spent much of the season as Chicago’s primary DH.
Morel took to his new role quite well, slashing .247/.313/.508 (119 wRC+) with 26 home runs across just 429 trips to the plate. Only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Yordan Alvarez, and Nolan Gorman hit more home runs in under 500 trips to the plate this year. What’s more, Morel’s .260 ISO ranked sixteenth among players with at least 400 big league plate appearances in 2023, ranking just behind Jorge Soler and just ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr. Though Morel’s strikeout rate of 31% is still high enough to raise plenty of eyebrows, the youngster managed to establish himself as a quality big-league power bat as the Cubs’ regular DH.
As previously mentioned, Morel has found himself at the center of trade rumors this offseason with the Cubs potentially in line to be aggressive this winter. Reports have suggested Morel as a potential piece of the return for both Soto and Alonso should the Cubs look to deal for either player, though other reports have indicated the Cubs might be hesitant to include Morel in a deal for a rental piece.
The decision on whether or not to shop Morel this offseason is an interesting one for the Cubs. The youngster is not yet eligible for arbitration and figures to remain under team control for five more seasons before being first eligible for free agency after the 2028 season. His power-oriented bat could prove crucial for the Cubs in 2024, particularly after the 2023 team landed middle-of-the-pack in terms of both ISO and home runs this past season, and it’s always possible that a player as young as Morel manages to find another gear and break out. That sort of upside could make it hard for the Cubs to part with Morel, especially given the amount of team control he has remaining.
That being said, with Nico Hoerner locked in at second base for the next three seasons while Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki are set to patrol the outfield corners for that same term, Morel seems unlikely to find a long-term position in Chicago— at least, unless he takes to a new position this winter. What’s more, Morel’s propensity for striking out combined with just average walk rates for his career give him an uncertain floor as a player; if his power production dips, it’s possible the Cubs could be looking at a roughly league average offensive contributor taking up their DH slot on most days. That risk could make it sensible for Chicago to attempt to sell high on Morel this offseason.
What do MLBTR readers think about Chicago’s dilemma? Should the Cubs look to move Morel now, given his value may never be higher? Or should they hold onto him in hopes of a breakout that could make him an impact player in spite of his limited defensive value? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
Should The Cubs Trade Christopher Morel This Offseason?
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Yes, sell high on Morel and shop him aggressively. 40% (2,962)
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Listen to offers on Morel, but don't trade him for a rental player. 37% (2,704)
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No, hold onto Morel and see how he develops. 23% (1,661)
Total votes: 7,327
Pete Alonso Looking To Surpass Recent Deals For Top First Basemen
The relationship between the Mets and Pete Alonso has a ticking clock on it, with the slugging first baseman now less than a year away from free agency. There have been plenty of rumors about the possibilities of a trade or an extension, though neither has come to fruition thus far. This week, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Alonso’s requests in extension talks have surpassed the recent contracts for other first basemen from recent years. Meanwhile, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the Cubs continue to have interest and would be willing to make Christopher Morel part of the return package.
Alonso’s appeal is obvious as he has been one of the best power bats in the majors since his 2019 debut. He has hit between 37 and 53 home runs in each full season of his career and 16 more in the shortened 2020 campaign. His 192 long balls since the start of 2019 are easily the most in baseball, with Matt Olson second at 177. Overall, Alonso has hit .251/.342/.528 for a wRC+ of 133. Reviews on his glovework are mixed, with Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average considering him to be subpar, though Defensive Runs Saved disagrees. Regardless, his bat is potent enough that he’s plenty valuable even without strong work in the field.
That Alonso is looking to get a contract “much bigger” than the top first base contracts of recent years, per Passan, is fairly logical given his output. The last decade saw some mammoth deals for first basemen but recent years have seen a softening. Miguel Cabrera got an extension of $248MM from the Tigers, topping the $240MM and $214MM earned by free agents Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, respectively. But that Cabrera deal was in 2014, whereas the latter two deals were going into 2012.
Since that time, the two biggest guarantees for first basemen went to Olson and Freddie Freeman. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension with Atlanta when he was still two years away from free agency. Back in February, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at Alonso as an extension candidate and noted the similarities between them at the time. But since then, Alonso has moved one year closer to the open market. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to get a salary of $22MM in his final arbitration season. Players generally increase their earning power as they move closer to free agency, which give Alonso an argument for going past Olson at this point.
Freeman got his six-year, $162MM deal on the open market, but going into his age-32 season. He can’t match Alonso’s power but has generally had better batting averages and on-base percentages, in addition to a stronger defensive reputation. But Alonso is slated to reach free agency ahead of his age-30 campaign, making him two years younger than when Freeman went to the Dodgers.
All this suggests Alonso and agent Scott Boras are setting their sights on something in the $200MM range. It’s unclear if the Mets have any interest in meeting that asking price but it also doesn’t appear they are being pushed into a trade. President of baseball operations David Stearns has said multiple times that he expects Alonso to be the club’s Opening Day first baseman next year. “I don’t draw lines in the sand,” Stearns said last week. “And I’m never gonna say never. But I absolutely think it’s fair that I don’t anticipate him being traded.”
If the Mets were to consider a trade, the Cubs continue to have interest, per Rogers. The two clubs reportedly discussed Alonso at the deadline last year and the Cubs still don’t have an obvious solution at first base. Matt Mervis continued to hit well in Triple-A, slashing .282/.399/.533 this year, but his first 99 plate appearances in the majors led to a line of just .167/.242/.289. The Cubs could give him another shot but they may prefer a more established player like Alonso.
It was recently reported that Morel is getting some work at first base in winter ball, which gives them another option there, but a trade of Morel also seems to be on the table. He has struck out at a 31.6% clip in his first 854 plate appearances but the power is real, launching 42 home runs in that time. The problem is defense, with Morel generally considered not a great fit for shortstop, third base or the outfield. Moving to first might be a decent compromise, but it would be a waste of his strong throwing arm, which Statcast places in the 99th percentile.
Morel has posted decent results at second base but the Cubs have a middle infield of Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner. Hoyer recently stated that “another team might be able to put him” at second, which perhaps suggests Morel is more valuable to the Cubs as a trade chip than anything else and this report from Rogers suggests that may indeed be their thinking.
The Mets have Jeff McNeil as their most likely option at the keystone, though he’s also capable of playing third base or an outfield corner, so perhaps they would have some interest in Morel. Giving up on a fan favorite like Alonso would be a tough pill to swallow but Morel is cheaper, having not yet reached arbitration, and still has five years of club control. It would leave the club with a hole at first base though they could perhaps try Mark Vientos there or acquire a cheap free agent stopgap. Prospect Ryan Clifford, acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, could be a future option at that spot but he’s yet to crack Double-A. Putting Morel at second could block Ronny Mauricio but he didn’t hit the ground running in his first major league action and could also move over to third base and battle Brett Baty for playing time. Luisangel Acuña, acquired in the Max Scherzer trade, could be an option at the keystone in the future but has yet to reach Triple-A to this point.
All this is speculative and there’s still nothing to suggest the Mets like Morel or even want to move Alonso. But they will likely have to make some kind of decision at some point. If they don’t trade Alonso now or at the 2024 trade deadline, they would be left to make him a qualifying offer at season’s end and collect a compensation pick. But since they are likely to pay the luxury tax yet again, that pick would be between the fourth and fifth round of the draft, surely far less appealing than whatever they could get in a trade. But with Steve Cohen’s unprecedented spending in recent years, it also wouldn’t be a shock to see Alonso locked up for an extended stay in Queens.