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David Price

East Notes: Price, D. Murphy, d’Arnaud

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Red Sox southpaw David Price’s start Saturday against the Yankees was another rough outing for the longtime ace, who allowed six earned runs, seven hits and three walks in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-2 defeat. After signing a record-setting contract with Boston over the winter, Price has gotten discouraging results in four of his first seven starts with his new club while posting a bloated 6.75 ERA. Along with Price’s subpar run prevention, his velocity is down this season, leading John Tomase of WEEI to wonder if there’s an issue with the 30-year-old. Both Price and manager John Farrell insist he’s healthy, though pitching coach Carl Willis acknowledged Price’s downturn in velocity Saturday. “Really, we just haven’t seen the velocity at this point that he’s had before,” he said (via Roger Rubin of ESPN.com). “It is May 7, so power pitchers tend to get it a little later, and we’re starting to get into May now.” Even with his velocity-related troubles, Price has still put up an 11.54 K/9, 2.93 FIP and 2.94 xFIP, indicating that a turnaround could be on the way.

Now for a quick look at the NL East…

  • Thanks in part to his ridiculously hot start this season (.402/.448/.654 with four home runs in 116 plate appearances), Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy has compiled a 142 wRC+ over the past calendar year, including playoffs, to put himself in company with stars like Buster Posey and Anthony Rizzo. His resounding success is no accident, writes FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron, who points to some meaningful adjustments Murphy has made to facilitate his offensive explosion. For one, Murphy has changed his stance, as tweeted by Mike Petriello of MLB.com, and is now both less upright and closer to the plate than he previously was. He has also markedly increased his pull percentage each year since 2013 and is hitting fewer balls on the ground, leading to more line drives and extra-base hits. While Cameron doesn’t expect Murphy to be the best offensive second baseman in the game going forward, it seems the Nats may have gotten themselves a bargain when they signed the ex-Met to a three-year, $37.5MM deal in the offseason.
  • Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud has been on the disabled list since April 26 with a rotator cuff strain and doesn’t appear primed to return in the near future, as he felt discomfort while trying to throw a ball Saturday, Adam Rubin of ESPN.com was among those to report. “Pretty discouraging for him and us,” said manager Terry Collins. Mets catchers Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera have collected just eight hits in 46 at-bats while filling in for d’Arnaud this year. Prior to landing on the DL, d’Arnaud also got off to a forgettable start (.196/.288/.261 in 52 plate appearances) and contributed to the Mets’ offensive woes behind the plate. Mets backstops have thus far posted a 60 wRC+, the ninth-worst mark in the majors.

East Notes: Inciarte, Mallex, Price, Blue Jays, deGrom

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Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte left yesterday’s game against the Cardinals with hamstring tightness, as Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes. Inciarte, who missed time last year with hamstring trouble, says he’s hopeful he can return to the lineup soon. There are no indications yet that the injury is serious, but if Inciarte needs to head to the DL, the team could promote prospect Mallex Smith, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. Smith, one of the players the Braves received when they traded Justin Upton to the Padres, has continued his trend of posting very high on-base percentages and stolen-base totals since establishing himself in the Braves system (although the former dipped somewhat last year once he headed from Double-A Mississippi to Triple-A Gwinnett). The 22-year-old has a career .293/.379/.385 minor-league line, with 225 stolen bases in 1,769 plate appearances. Here’s more from the East divisions.

  • David Price says he understands the Blue Jays not extending him a contract offer this past winter, but feels they might have if Alex Anthopoulos had still been in charge, Alykhan Ravjiani of MLB.com writes. “I think if Alex would have still been here, then it might have been — not upsetting — but a little bit different,” he says. “But it’s a new front office, [there’s] a lot of new guys, and for them to not make that offer, I got it. I understood it.” Anthopoulos, of course, executed a series of high-profile acquisitions of stars like Price and Troy Tulowitzki, and the organization’s new front office headed by Mark Shapiro is perceived as being far less likely to make those sorts of decisive moves. Ravjiani notes, though, that the team already has fairly heavy payroll commitments, so it’s unclear if they would have made an offer even if Anthopoulos hadn’t left his post.
  • Mets starter Jacob deGrom is dealing with a stiff lat muscle, as David Lennon of Newsday writes. The Mets removed him from yesterday’s game after just six innings and 76 pitches, and his velocity was off, at an average of 92.8 MPH after he averaged 94.9 last year. “We’ll be careful with it,” says Mets manager Terry Collins. “If he can’t throw his bullpen in a couple days, we’ll have to find someone to throw in his spot.” John Harper of the Daily News argues that the Mets should be cautious with deGrom, helping him avoid the fate of Steven Matz, who missed significant time last year due to a torn lat.

AL Notes: Doubront, Red Sox, Simmons, Twins

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Here’s the latest from around the junior circuit…

  • Athletics southpaw Felix Doubront left his final spring start today after one inning due to forearm tightness and underwent an MRI this evening.  (MLB.com’s Jane Lee has the details).  Doubront was projected to be Oakland’s fifth starter, at least until Henderson Alvarez makes his expected return from shoulder rehab in May.  Jesse Hahn would likely replace Doubront if a DL stint is required, though the A’s will hold off on making any final roster decisions until they know the results of Doubront’s MRI.  The lefty posted a 5.50 ERA, 2.15 K/BB rate and 6.7 K/9 over 75 1/3 innings with the A’s and Blue Jays last season.
  • Dave Dombrowski had a clear idea of the players he wanted to acquire in his first winter in charge of the Red Sox baseball ops department, as Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe writes in a detailed recap of how the Sox landed David Price, Craig Kimbrel and Chris Young.  The three players were, in fact, Boston’s top three targets heading into the offseason and all three will be wearing Red Sox jerseys on Opening Day.
  • Andrelton Simmons has gone through a lot in his path to the majors, though the one constant has always been spectacular defense, Pedro Moura of the Los Angeles Times writes.  Moura’s profile of the Angels shortstop covers such topics as Simmons’ brief flirtation with quitting baseball for soccer, his well-regarded pitching arm (four teams with high selections in the 2010 draft considered taking him as a pitcher) and his efforts to improve his hitting.
  • Over the last decade, the Twins have struggled to find Major League starters at the top of the draft, 1500 ESPN Twin Cities’ Derek Wetmore writes.  Wetmore recaps the unimpressive list of arms selected by the club since 2006, though obviously the jury is still out on more recent picks like Tyler Jay.

Sox Notes: ChiSox, BoSox, Sale, Craig, Loney, LaRoche

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The Red Sox and White Sox not only share similar nicknames, but they’ve also shared struggles in each of the last two seasons.  In fact, Boston and Chicago have identical 149-175 records over that stretch.  Here’s the latest from both shades of Sox…

  • Chris Sale had some harsh words for executive VP Kenny Williams in the wake of the Adam LaRoche controversy, though this hasn’t had any impact on Sale’s future with the team, a White Sox official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  There is “no chance” Sale would be traded, the official said: “There was no chance in the offseason and no chance now. We’re building our team around Chris Sale.”
  • Just in case the relationship between Sale and the White Sox has indeed gone south, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe opines that the Red Sox should make a trade inquiry.  Abraham admits that Sale and and the Pale Hose “will probably make peace,” though this piece gives an idea of the gigantic price Chicago would demand for its ace.  Abraham suggests Boston could offer a trade package that includes Allen Craig and $18MM of his salary, plus young righty Anderson Espinoza and three other top-tier prospects.  In my opinion, I think even this impressive offer wouldn’t be enough to land a valuable asset like Sale, who is prized for not just his ability but also his contract — $21.15MM through 2017 and then club options for 2018 and 2019 worth a respective $12.5MM and $13.5MM.
  • While Craig may not be part of a blockbuster Red Sox trade package, Cafardo also suggests the first baseman could be a fit for the White Sox with LaRoche gone.  Chicago seems ready to fill LaRoche’s DH spot with Melky Cabrera and Avisail Garcia, though since Boston would inevitably be footing almost all of the $21MM remaining on Craig’s contract, it might not be a bad flier to take (especially since Cabrera and Garcia are coming off poor seasons).  Craig is trying to revive his career after two rough seasons that dropped his stock to the point that he was outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster last year.
  • In other first base trade speculation, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wonders if James Loney could be a fit for the White Sox.  The Rays have been unsuccessfully shopping Loney all winter and are reportedly willing to cover some of the $8MM Loney is owed in 2016.  Like LaRoche, Loney is also a left-handed hitter, perhaps making him a more ideal complement to the right-handed Garcia and Jose Abreu.
  • LaRoche’s dispute with the White Sox about his son’s presence in the clubhouse has drawn a lot of response from around baseball, with ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) collecting some reaction from unnamed officials and front office personnel.  Most observes were surprised by the unusual nature of LaRoche’s demand that his son be a constant presence with the club and the seeming lack of communication between Kenny Williams, Rick Hahn and Robin Ventura about the situation.
  • “Honestly, I don’t think I was talking about the Red Sox,” David Price told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about his early comments about his ideal new team.  Price was focused on joining a team with a pipeline of young talent, and was initially thinking about the Cardinals and Cubs rather than the Red Sox since he “wasn’t as familiar” with Boston’s farm system.  The Cards and Cubs ended up being the next two highest bidders for Price’s services this winter, though their offers reportedly fell well short of the seven-year, $217MM contract Price signed with Boston since the Red Sox were intent on landing the ace.
  • One final note from Cafardo’s column: he notes that Red Sox infield prospect Marco Hernandez could be a trade target for other clubs in the wake of Hernandez’s strong Spring Training performance.  Hernandez, ranked as the 12th-best prospect in Boston’s system by Baseball America, is a 23-year-old who posted a combined .305/.330/.454 slash line over 484 PA at Double and Triple-A last season.  While his bat is still developing, Hernandez already has value as a utility infielder able to play second, third and shortstop.

Blue Jays Notes: Price, Donaldson, Bautista, Floyd

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Blue Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke to Jim Bowden about the decision not to re-sign David Price this offseason (audio link). “Every team has a budget,” Shapiro began. “Every team has operating parameters. I don’t know why it’s not fashionable to just say the truth. David Price would’ve represented almost our entire offseason. It’s that simple, Jim. Almost no one would make that decision. … To me, it comes down to we had a very, very, very challenging pitching dilemma here in that we lost him, we lost [Marco] Estrada. We had zero Triple-A pitchers — not one, not a name to fill our rotation in Triple-A. We had to take the money, which was ample, and figure out how to both solve the Major League rotation, which was two spots in the rotation, along with solving a depth challenge. … Regardless of how great one pitcher is, you need to build a team around the guy, too.”

More from Shapiro and more on the Jays…

  • Within that same interview, Shapiro also said that he discussed multiple concepts with Josh Donaldson’s representatives before agreeing to a two-year, $29MM contract. The club explored long-term contract scenarios that would buy out free-agent years as well as three-year deals to lock in all of his remaining arbitration seasons and also just straight one-year deals. “Josh is a guy that not only performed at an elite level from a talent perspective but provided the energy, leadership and competitive edge that, to me, fueled this team last year,” said Shapiro of the reigning American League MVP.
  • With Donaldson’s contract situation now resolved, the club can turn its attention to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Shapiro explained that the team has a clear desire to extend each player, but the question of what it will take to do so is significant. Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron attempts to price out an extension for Bautista, who will turn 36 in October and is thus considerably older than the typical extension candidate. Even elite position players in Bautista’s age class have been limited to a maximum of four years, writes Cameron, citing the contracts for Victor Martinez, Ben Zobrist and Carlos Beltran as examples of older stars that have taken four (or, in Beltran’s case, three) years on the open market. As Cameron notes, a good bit of decline will need to be expected over the term of the contract, and it’s likely that Bautista would look like an overvalued asset in a four-year deal’s final season. Ultimately, after making a four-year WAR projection and forecasting for some year-to-year regression, Cameron arrives at a four-year, $75MM pact as a reasonable price.
  • There’s some sense to that deal for both sides, to be sure, though I personally wonder if Cameron’s general hypothesis that Bautista would land at four years and $90MM on the open market next year undersells his earning potential. Assuming a characteristically productive season, Bautista could be the premier bat on a thin free-agent market, and age notwithstanding, a $22.5MM annual value isn’t the top of the spectrum for premium power hitters. I’d wager that a current Blue Jays extension would have to top $80MM in total value, as I can envision enough interest in his bat to push that earning ceiling closer to, or even north of $100MM on the open market, either via an increased annual value or via a club tacking on a fifth year (at a much lower rate) as a means of pushing its offer over the top. (For those interested in further reading on Bautista, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk profiled his extension candidacy back in November.)
  • Gavin Floyd’s strong finish to the 2015 season in Cleveland impressed not only Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins (both were still with the Indians at the time), but a number of Blue Jays scouts as well, writes Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith. Floyd’s fastball sat at 92 mph and touched 95 mph, writes Nicholson-Smith, and with three additional breaking pitches in his arsenal, Atkins, Shapiro and the scouting staff deemed him worthy of a 40-man roster spot if that was the final component needed to get Floyd to Toronto. “He has the make-up of a starter with a repeatable delivery and a four-pitch arsenal,” said Atkins. “We’ve also seen his work ethic up close and we know it’s going to be there.” As Nicholson-Smith notes, Floyd doesn’t need to provide much value to justify such a minimal investment.

The Dollar Value Of Recent Opt-Out Clauses

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Following a wave of multi-year club options attached to deals, players and their agents have begun to request and receive player options in recent years as well. David Price, Johnny Cueto, and Jason Heyward have each received them this winter, meaning that quantification of such deals is essential for careful team building. (Editor’s note: this article was written before the Dodgers reached an agreement with Scott Kazmir.) Everyone up to the commissioner has expressed concern that these “opt-out” clauses have been included in deals, and some feel teams simply should not give them. However, this is akin to saying that teams should not pay players above the league minimum salary—of course teams would like to do this, but you need to give players compensation to sign them. An opt-out is a way to lower the cost in dollars to the team, because the player will want more money otherwise.

Each of these three deals would be substantially more expensive without opt-out provisions—each opt-out clause is worth around $20MM, by my calculations. To test this, I looked at how a rough weighting of previous years’ WAR would affect a future projection, and compared this to how that projection would crystalize as it got closer. This led to an estimate that a very rough projection of future value 2-3 years in advance would change by about 1.0 WAR over the following 2-3 years. A more sophisticated system would probably change by about 0.7 WAR as it gets closer—and dollar value would probably change by about $7MM per year after accounting for overall uncertainty in salary levels. (The relationship between dollars and WAR utilized in this post is explained at this link.)

Given that potential level of variation, there are still a wide band of possibilities in terms of what a given player’s expected future value will be at the point of decision on an opt-out. But at base, an opt out is a binary choice: yes or no. Based on what we know now, and based on reasonable projections, we can estimate a given player’s future expected value at that point of decision by weighting different possible outcomes.

In other words, if Player X opts out, we can assume it is because his anticipated value at the point of that decision is higher than that which he would have earned through the remaining portion of the contract. But we don’t know exactly how much higher. So, to arrive at a value for the scenario in which a player does opt out, I’ve weighted all of those possibilities and reduced them to a single dollar value. The same holds true of the situations in which the player does not opt out.

We’ll get into each player’s situation further below, but this table shows the results of the exercise. (App users can click on this link to see the table image.)

opt out value estimate table

David Price received a contract for seven years at $217MM, but it was really a three-year contract for $90MM with a player option of four years and $127MM. If Price only held teams to a three-year commitment, he would probably get close to $120MM—but this is not what he did. Instead, he will require $127MM for 2019-22, only on the condition that he looks to be worth less than that by then. Although $127MM is not a terrible estimate of his 2019-22 production as of January 2016, this value will probably change drastically by October 2018, one way or the other. If he does not opt out, he probably will have performed worse, and conditional on the assumption that he will not have opted out, I estimate his expected value for his 2019-22 seasons to be $80MM. If he does opt out, he probably will have performed better, and conditional on the assumption that he will have opted out, I estimate his expected value for those seasons to be $170MM. Given that this corresponds to roughly a 40% chance of opting out, his opt-out clause is worth about $17MM, meaning that his seven-year $217MM contract is roughly equivalent to a seven-year $234MM contract with no opt-out clause.

Johnny Cueto’s contract is somewhat trickier, but it essentially amounts to a deal of two years for $46MM, with a player option of four years and $84MM, followed by a club option of one year for $16MM. Cueto would probably be worth $17MM above his salary for 2016-17. But for 2018-21, he is likely to be worth $50MM if he does not opt out and $117MM if he does. With roughly even odds of opting out, this makes his opt-out worth about $17MM. While the club option for 2022 makes the deal somewhat more attractive for the Giants, the odds that he will be worth much more than this are low. Overall, Cueto’s six-year deal for $130MM would probably cost about $147MM with no opt-out clause.

Jason Heyward’s contract is even trickier, but it mostly boils down to a three-year deal for $78MM, followed by a five-year player option for $106MM—except that the first player option (if exercised) is only certain to include one more year for $20MM. That’s because there’s a vesting provision that, if triggered—by Heyward reaching 550 plate appearances in the season following the initial option decision—would give him yet another player option for four years and $86MM. (If he exercises the initial option but then doesn’t reach that PA threshold, then both sides would be stuck with the remaining four years of the contract.)  Heyward’s value is further complicated by the fact that signing him required forfeiting a draft pick, which is worth around $9MM.

Although Heyward’s contract contains two opt-outs, it is not all that likely that he opts out after 2019 if he does not after 2018. Players’ values do change substantially, but he is likely to be either much more valuable than his five-year player option after 2018, or much less valuable. It is not that we expect his value to look similar after 2018 and 2019—it is that he will probably already be way above or way below the current expected value near $20MM per year, and is likely to remain way above or way below this line through 2019.

For the first three years of Heyward’s contract, I estimate that he is worth about $22MM more than his contract will pay him. With five years of player option, there is a wide range of potential values afterward. I estimate that he also has about even odds of opting out, but if he does not opt out then he is probably only worth $65MM, while if he does he would be worth $157MM. If he doesn’t opt out after 2018 and does after 2019, he is likely near the middle and the value of the second opt-out is small. The net effect is that his opt-out clauses are worth about $25MM, and he would probably have received $209MM for eight years instead of $184MM had no opt-out been included in the deal.

With values of $17MM for each of the two pitchers and $25MM for Heyward’s pair of opt-outs, these opt-outs help keep costs down for teams. While they contain more downside and less upside than typical free agent contracts, they cost less money as well. As teams move forward in this new market, they should be careful to properly consider the true cost of these player options. If teams are willing to expose themselves to some downside risk, they can lower the cost of acquiring elite players.

Cubs Notes: Price, Bullpen, Heyward

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The Cubs made a run at David Price this winter, but they weren’t necessarily close to landing him.  Chicago fell roughly $50MM short of the Red Sox’s offer, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told WEEI this week.  “We ended up a distant third,” Epstein said.

“He’s a great pitcher and we were involved and very interested,” said Epstein, who was apparently also behind the Cardinals in the Price sweepstakes. “We thought, he’s an elite, elite pitcher, the kind that very rarely makes it to the free agent market, he’s got terrific makeup, where he influences a team not just through his performance on the field, but he’s a real culture-changer or a culture-enhancer, at the very least, in the clubhouse.”

Here’s more on the Cubs:

  • The Cubs’ current focus is on trading for relievers, major league sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Chicago isn’t looking for high-end types like Andrew Miller of the Yankees, but they are fishing for middle-inning and setup options who would provide additional depth.  In the outfield, he adds, the Cubs’ plan is to play Jason Heyward in center field rather than add a center fielder and slide Heyward into right field.  The Cubs could also consider a trade for a starting pitcher.
  • After sitting on lower payroll numbers for six years, Cubs ownership has opened up the purse strings, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes.  Epstein & Co. now have a projected $155MM payroll on the 25-man roster for 2016, eclipsing the previous watermark of $145MM in 2010.  The payroll should keep rising from here, thanks to a projected attendance hike this season and a TV contract that will give the Cubs billions of dollars worth of revenue.
  • In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward.   “Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”

Central Notes: Indians, Reds, Chapman, Cubs, Tigers, Pelfrey, Cards, Pirates

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Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti tells MLB Network Radio (audio link) that he’s chasing offensive upgrades, with interest in hitters from both sides of the plate. “I think it’s probably safe to say … that if you’re a corner bat or an outfielder, that we are investigating those options,” said Antonetti, who added that Cleveland is “definitely looking to improve our position player club.” The executive made clear in his comments that the team is open to adding multiple bats.

Here’s more from the central divisions:

  • The Reds “have made everyone available,” Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets, including third baseman Todd Frazier. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty indicated that would probably be the case back in November, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported at the time. “I don’t know if we’re in a position to say there’s any untouchables,” said Jocketty. With the Winter Meetings opening tomorrow, it seems that Cincinnati will be one of the major sellers to watch.
  • While the Reds have fielded the most active recent interest from the Dodgers and the Astros in star southpaw Aroldis Chapman, per another Heyman tweet, Cincinnati and Houston have been “having [a] hard time matching up.” All indications are that the ’Stros have been casting a wide net in their search for a top-notch reliever, possibly indicating a focus on achieving value, and it’s certainly possible to imagine that the team will be hesitant to cough up a major prospect haul after cashing in some significant assets at the trade deadline. Cincinnati will no doubt be looking to add near-MLB talent to plug onto a roster that has dealt with injury and performance issues in recent years, though MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports that the team has some encouraging news on the progress of shortstop Zack Cozart and catcher Devin Mesoraco.
  • The Cubs have been chatting with the Rays about “some match ups,” tweets Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com, who notes that lefty reliever Jake McGee is “intriguing.” We have heard recently that Chicago could be looking to add a major arm via trade.
  • Tigers GM Al Avila says his focus this week in Nashville will be on bolstering the pen, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Detroit might still look to make changes on the position player side of the equation, but that probably will not occur this week.
  • The Tigers have already addressed their rotation, of course, after announcing the signing of Mike Pelfrey to go with the previously-inked Jordan Zimmermann. As Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports, Avila called the move a “scout signing” in that the team believes the big righty has shown the ability to produce solid results moving forward. “He’s a guy we were very comfortable with,” Avila explained “He’s a guy that’s a good bet for us that he can bounce back and build off last year. Our intent was to get a guy that can get us 30 starts, give us some innings, a veteran guy that has good clubhouse makeup.”
  • Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. says that his club will “stretch again if we see the right opportunity” after putting in a big offer for lefty David Price, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. All told, Goold writes, the organization appears primed to have a major impact on the market even after missing on Price.
  • Another team that chased Price, the Cubs, sought to woo him with a seven-year, $161MM offer, per Levine (via Twitter). That is believed to be the third-highest offer, behind the Cards and the ultimately successful Red Sox. Of course, Chicago ultimately went on to add John Lackey for two years and $32MM, a signing that drew strong praise from at least one rival GM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Meanwhile, the Pirates have a host of needs that remain open at this time, as Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Team president Frank Coonelly tells Sawchik that the organization anticipates a rise in payroll, and has “flexibility to add by free agency and/or trades.” He also made an interesting observation on the club’s range of possible actions, saying the 2016 ballclub “may include players who are available to us in part because we have made other moves.” That could be a reference to high-priced veterans Mark Melancon and Neil Walker, both of whom have emerged as trade candidates. It seems that Pittsburgh could be a major mover at the GM Meetings, one of the many topics that Zach Links and I covered in this week’s Winter Meetings preview on the MLBTR Podcast.

Central Notes: Young, Cardinals, Price, Reds

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The perception in the industry is that it’s “only a matter of timing” before veteran starting pitcher Chris Young re-signs with the Royals, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. Previous reports had indicated the two sides had been in talks, although, after pitching 123 1/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA for $675K last year, Young was looking for a deal better aligned with the quality of his performance. On a runs-allowed basis, the 36-year-old has been very useful the last two seasons despite an 87-MPH fastball and underwhelming peripherals. Here are more quick notes from the Central divisions.

  • The Cardinals ultimately did not win the bidding for David Price, but their willingness to shell out big bucks to sign him was telling, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. “We felt like we stretched in the Price situation, and we’ll stretch again if we see the right opportunity in someone who has the characteristics that he had. Those are tough to replicate,” says Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. With Price off the board, the Cardinals are now focused on re-signing star outfielder Jason Heyward. They would also still like to add starting pitching.
  • The departures of several key reserves have been “addition by subtraction” for the Cardinals, Jeff Gordon of the Post-Dispatch writes. Pete Kozma (.152/.236/.152), Peter Bourjos (.200/.290/.333) and Tony Cruz (.204/.235/.310) have all departed, and the Cardinals almost can’t help but do better with their roster spots, Gordon suggests. Aledmys Diaz, Brandon Moss and Brayan Pena will all play key roles on next year’s bench.
  • Heading into the Winter Meetings, Reds president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty says there’s little going on with trade talks for players other than Aroldis Chapman, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. “We really haven’t had a lot of discussion, with the exception of one player, maybe,” Jocketty says. “Other than that, it’s been pretty quiet. I don’t know what’s going to happen when we get to Nashville. It’s been pretty slow since Thanksgiving.” Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce have recently come up in rumors. Both say they would like to remain with Reds (although, of course, Frazier does not have protection from being traded and Bruce has only a limited no-trade clause).

AL East Notes: Yankees, Alvarez, Red Sox, Rays, Orioles

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman is downplaying the team’s interest in free agents, writes George A. King III of the New York Post. The Yankees are shopping veterans Ivan Nova, Brett Gardner, and Andrew Miller, but talks have subsided for the moment. According to Cashman, “I think it’s more likely that we keep them than move them. I say that recognizing that if someone wants to ring a bell that I’ve put out there, that could happen.”

Here’s more from the AL East:

  • The Yankees don’t have a spot for recently non-tendered slugger Pedro Alvarez, writes King. Before considering the roster, Alvarez sounds like a decent fit. As a youth, Alvarez attended school in the Bronx and played for the Bayside Bombers – an elite travel team based in the area. Yankee Stadium is also extremely friendly to left-handed power. However, the Yankees are swamped with designated hitters. Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Carlos Beltran, and prospect Greg Bird all overlap to some degree.
  • New York could try to upgrade in the middle infield next week, writes Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Rob Refsnyder and Dustin Ackley are expected to platoon at second base, but Cashman will continue to monitor the market for more reliable alternatives. Feinsand offers Howie Kendrick, Brandon Phillips, and Martin Prado as three players to watch. Kendrick is a free agent while Phillips and Prado would have to be acquired via trade.
  • Owner John Henry says the Red Sox could add another starter, writes John Tomase of WEEI.com. Boston inked David Price to a record breaking contract earlier in the week. Per Henry, “I do think there is trade potential. We have a lot of pitching and we have a lot of talent. We’re not going to trade away our core young players, but we might be able to get a core young pitcher.” Henry did mention that the asking price for high quality pitchers is probably out of their range.
  • The Rays also aren’t a fit for designated hitters Alvarez or Chris Carter, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa would have to make a trade to open playing time for them. The club is likely looking to trade pitching for young hitters like Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.
  • The large contracts signed by Price and Zack Greinke could take the Orioles out of the market for Chris Davis, opines Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Schmuck figures the floor for Davis is probably around $150MM – more than double the biggest free agent deal ever inked by the Orioles. The market for hitters has been much slower to establish itself, so there is still a change we’ll be surprised. For now, I agree Davis may wind up outside of Baltimore’s price range.
  • The Orioles aren’t usually flashy participants at the Winter Meetings, but they do have a few needs to fill, write Eduardo A. Encina and Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Davis, the rotation, and the outfield are obvious concerns. The bullpen could be a challenge to buoy if Darren O’Day signs elsewhere. The Nationals and Orioles are considered front runners for his services. Baltimore likes to make Rule 5 picks under Dan Duquette. The club already has to roster Dylan Bundy who is out of options – possibly preventing them from keeping a pick.
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