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Endy Rodriguez

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Pirates Notes: Cruz, Davis, Rodriguez, Hedges

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The Pirates hammered out the largest contract in franchise history this spring, ending the long-running Bryan Reynolds saga with a $100MM extension. Shortly after finalizing that deal, owner Bob Nutting said the Bucs were hoping to get long-term contracts done with other players.

Nutting didn’t tip his hand as to which players the Bucs were interested in signing, though it’s easy to speculate about potential candidates. Shortstop Oneil Cruz is one option, as the 6’7″ infielder has hit 19 home runs in his first 98 big league games.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that the Pirates and Cruz’s representatives at Vayner Sports had discussed a longer-term deal during Spring Training. According to Mackey, talks never got particularly close and seem to have been tabled during the season.

That’s hardly a huge concern. Cruz entered the season with less than one year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2028 campaign and seems unlikely to qualify for arbitration before 2026. There’s plenty of time to rekindle talks down the line. Even if nothing ever comes together, the Pirates can keep him around for the bulk of the decade.

The more immediate concern is Cruz’s health. The 24-year-old broke his left ankle nine games into the season. He underwent surgery that came with a four-month recovery timeline, putting his projected return sometime in August. Manager Derek Shelton said over the weekend that Cruz’s rehab remains on schedule, while the young slugger reiterated he expects to return this season (link via Justice delos Santos of MLB.com).

Without Cruz, the Pirates have used a rotating cast at shortstop. Rodolfo Castro and Tucupita Marcano have split the bulk of the reps while Ji Hwan Bae and Chris Owings (who was recently designated for assignment) have also factored in. They’ve done a solid job offensively. Bucs’ shortstops entered play Monday with a .254/.336/.398 line that placed them in the top half of the league in all three slash stats. It’s been a struggle on the other side of the ball, however. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have rated Pirates’ shortstops among the two worst defensive groups this year.

Cruz isn’t without defensive questions himself. He’s faced some predictable skepticism about whether he’ll be able to stick at shortstop given his height and extremely long levers. His massive power-speed upside made him a top-tier prospect in spite of those questions, though, and the Bucs are surely hoping he’ll contribute to a potential playoff push down the stretch.

Pittsburgh has plenty more young talent approaching the major league level. Their rebuild has led to one of the game’s deeper organizational pipelines, which will be further strengthened when they pick first overall this summer. It’s the second time in three years they’re at the top of the draft.

In 2021, the Bucs tabbed Louisville catcher Henry Davis with the top selection. Two years later, he’s reached the highest minor league level. The Pirates promoted Davis to Triple-A Indianapolis yesterday, a deserved bump after he mashed at a .284/.433/.547 clip in Double-A Altoona.

Davis joins 23-year-old Endy Rodríguez — an arguably even more talented prospect — as catchers with Indianapolis. General manager Ben Cherington addressed the enviable “problem” of having two young players of that caliber sharing reps in Triple-A (link via Rob Biertempfel of the Athletic). Cherington indicated it’d be a roughly even split of playing time behind  the dish, with both players also seeing time at other positions.

Davis has gotten some work in right field this year. Rodríguez has played left field and second base in the past but been limited to catcher or first base in 2023. Cherington noted that neither is being considered for a full-time position switch, as any non-catching work is primarily a means of getting both in the lineup concurrently.

While many Pirates’ fans are surely pining for a look at one of those young players at the major league level, Cherington pushed back against the possibility of an imminent call-up. He expressed confidence in the duo of Austin Hedges and Jason Delay as a defensive pairing.

Hedges, signed to a $5MM free agent contract, is generally regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive backstops. He annually draws elite marks for his pitch framing and ability to block balls in the dirt. Hedges has been solid at controlling the running game and is routinely praised for his management of a pitching staff. That acumen is enough for teams to overlook a lack of offensive contributions, as he’s among the sport’s least effective hitters on an annual basis. He owns a .179/.240/.221 line through his first 110 plate appearances as a Pirate.

Delay has a much better .310/.359/.437 slash on the season, though he’s unlikely to sustain anything approaching his current .404 batting average on balls in play. He’s gotten solid marks from Statcast for his pitch framing over the past two seasons, however. So long as the Pirates are using Hedges as the primary catcher, it’s sensible to keep the 28-year-old Delay as the #2 option while letting Davis and Rodríguez play regularly in Triple-A.

Looking At Pirates’ Past Trades That Are Starting To Pay Off

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The Pirates are off to an excellent start to begin the 2023 season, currently sporting a record of 16-7 with a run differential of +25. It’s too early to simply assume that they are quite this good, especially since many of their games have come against teams that aren’t expected to be competitive, like the Reds and the Rockies. But after a couple of 100-loss seasons and an even worse winning percentage in the shortened 2020 season, it’s an encouraging development, even if it’s not wholly sustainable.

As with any rebuilding club, the talent on the roster has been acquired in various ways. Some were brought into the organization with high draft picks, like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Mitch Keller. There are former amateur free agents, like Rodolfo Castro and Ji Hwan Bae. There’s also some veterans on modest free agent deals, like Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez. But a sizable portion of the roster was acquired via trade, as is often the case with rebuilding clubs, who use the playbook of sending established players away for prospects.

Some of these trades have been on the minor side, bringing in role players like Connor Joe or Mark Mathias. There have also been a few trades that haven’t worked out, such as the Clay Holmes deal, but here are some that have had a significant impact on the current roster. Also, just as a quick side note before launching into this, general manager Neal Huntington was fired in October of 2019. While most of the moves listed below were completed by his successor, Ben Cherington, the credit on the first few goes to the previous regime.

Watson had spent his entire career with the Pirates up until this point, having been drafted by them and making it to the majors by 2011. He had posted consistently solid results, never finishing a season with his ERA above 4.00, even coming in below 2.00 in both 2014 and 2015. In the 2017 season, he was in his final campaign of control before becoming a free agent. The Pirates made the playoffs in three straight years from 2013 to 2015 but fell below .500 in the two subsequent seasons. That made it a fairly logical move to flip an impending free agent reliever who wasn’t going to be a qualifying offer candidate.

German was a relief prospect who never amounted to much, topping out at Double-A in 2019. He reached free agency and signed a minor league deal with the Rays in 2020 but was released before pitching for them. But landing Cruz is in this deal looks like it will work out quite well for the Bucs. He’s currently on the 60-day injured list due to an ankle injury that required surgery, but he could be back around August. There are concerns about his strikeout rates and shortstop defense, but he has some of the best tools in the league, consistently featuring among the leaders in terms of exit velocities, arm strength and sprint speed. His eventual value will be determined by how much he refines the rougher edges in his game, but he clearly has incredible talent and should impact the club in some way. He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 campaign.

After two straight disappointing seasons, the Pirates clearly decided to lean in to their rebuild prior to 2018, making two significant trades within a few days of each other. The first one saw them deal Cole, who had two years of control remaining, to Houston. In return, they got four younger players, the most significant of whom was Musgrove. At the time of the trade, there were some questions about whether he was better suited to be a starter or a reliever. The Bucs gave him the chance to prove himself as a capable rotation member, which worked out for both parties. He posted a 4.23 ERA in 325 1/3 innings over three seasons in Pittsburgh, showing enough potential to establish his bona fides as a starter. That gave him enough trade value to get flipped to his hometown Padres, allowing the Pirates to add more young talent, which we will get to below.

As if the Cole trade wasn’t enough of a sign that the rebuild was on, the Pirates took down the Jolly Roger and waved a white flag when they traded McCutchen just two days later. He had been an iconic player for the franchise for many years, helping them return to contention after two decades of losing, earning the 2013 National League Most Valuable Player award in the process. He had signed an extension with the club going into 2012, a deal that ran through 2017 with a club option for 2018. He had fallen off from his MVP heights but the $14.5MM option price was still a bargain, so the Pirates made the easy decision to pick that up instead of paying the $1MM buyout. However, he would eventually play that season in San Francisco.

While the trade of a face-of-the-franchise player like McCutchen was undoubtedly frustrating for the fan base, it’s paying off now. Crick had some decent results at times for the Pirates but was ultimately released in 2021. The real coup of the deal is Reynolds, who has emerged as a new face-of-the-franchise player for Pittsburgh. He’s hit 79 home runs in his career and is currently sitting on a batting line of .282/.359/.484. He’s set for free agency after 2025, which has made him the constant subject of rumors, both the trade and extension variety. To date, both paths are still open, making it unclear if Reynolds will be part of the next playoff club in Pittsburgh or an extra bullet added to the bottom of this list.

The Pirates managed to sneak above .500 in 2018 but had a dismal season after that, going 69-93 in 2019, making it unsurprising that the selloff continued. Marte had previously signed an extension with the Bucs that ran through 2019 but had two affordable option years, meaning he still had a couple of years of control at the time of this trade. But with contention in that time frame seeming unlikely, he was sent to the desert.

Malone is now 22 years old and has yet to climb higher than Class-A in the minors. Injuries and the pandemic have limited him to fewer than 30 professional innings. Peguero in on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last year, though he got into just a single game. His prospect rank has faded in recent years, but he was still considered to be among the 10 best in the system as of the start of this season. He’s off to a slow start this year in a small sample of 11 Double-A games, so he’ll have to turn things around to stop his stock from falling further.

As mentioned earlier, Musgrove had established himself as a viable starter, enough to reap a pile of prospects that has already worked out well for the Bucs. Bednar has become one of the better relievers in the game, currently sporting a 2.82 ERA and 31.3% strikeout rate while racking up 30 saves. The fact that he happens to be a Pittsburgh kid is just icing on the cake. He’s yet to reach arbitration and isn’t slated for free agency until the 2026-27 offseason.

There’s still plenty of time for the Bucs to get even more out of this deal as well, as the other four players are still in their system. The most notable of them is Rodríguez, who is on the 40-man roster but hasn’t made it to the majors just yet. The catcher/infielder/outfielder is a versatile player with a potent bat, making him one of the most highly-touted prospects in the sport. He’s considered to be one of the top 50 prospects in the league by each of Baseball America, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline.

Taillon had some good seasons working in the Pittsburgh rotation from 2016 to 2018, but Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2019 and all of his 2020. He was set to return to the mound in 2021 when he still had a couple of years of control remaining. Despite the injury uncertainty, the Yankees believed in Taillon enough to acquire those two seasons, sending four prospects to Pittsburgh in exchange.

Yajure is already gone from the organization and Escotto’s prospect stock has fallen off, but the other two players are still on the roster. Most evaluators project Smith-Njigba for a bench/utility role, though he’s still young, turning 24 this coming weekend. Regardless, the most significant player in this batch seems to be Contreras, as he’s already in the club’s rotation. He has a 3.84 ERA through his first 119 2/3 innings in the big leagues and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. If he can continue to hold his own against major league hitters, then the Pirates have a rotation building block in place for the foreseeable future.

Frazier was drafted by the Pirates and had spent his entire career with them up until this point, establishing himself as a solid utility option. His bat was roughly around league average, a useful asset for a player who could be plugged in at almost any position on the diamond. He was having a BABIP-backed spike in 2021, hitting .324/.388/.448 when the Pirates sold high, trading him away while he still had a year and a half of control remaining, getting three young players in return.

Miliano is a 23-year-old reliever who’s yet to surpass High-A, so he’s probably the least likely of this group to be a key contributor going forward. Marcano is in the big leagues but is expected to serve a bench/utility role. Suwinski, however, has the chance to be an impactful member of the club. He’s been playing all three outfield spots in the big leagues, seeming to be a passable defender at any of them. He’s also hit 24 home runs in just 122 games thus far. His 30.3% strikeout rate is certainly on the high side, but he’s also drawn walks at a healthy 12% clip. His .209/.310/.440 career batting line to this point in his career translated into a 109 wRC+, and his batted-ball data in 2023’s small sample is particularly interesting (95.2 mph average exit velocity, 56.3% hard-hit rate). He’s not slated for free agency until after the 2028 season.

Vogelbach was a known power threat, having hit 30 home runs with the Mariners in 2019, but he struggled in the next few seasons and bounced to the Blue Jays and Brewers, getting non-tendered by the latter club after the 2021 season. The Pirates signed him to a modest deal worth $1MM plus incentives, watched him get into a groove and flipped him to the Mets after a few months.

Holderman has just 35 major league appearances to this point in his career, but the results are fairly encouraging.  He has a 3.20 ERA with a 49.1% ground ball rate, helping him keep the ball in the park to such a degree that he’s yet to allow a home run. That surely won’t be able to last forever, but he’s working himself into a high-leverage role with the club, having accrued eight holds already in this young season.

Quintana has a long track record of success in the majors but struggled in both 2020 and 2021, getting bumped to the bullpen in both seasons. The Pirates bought low by signing him to a one-year, $2MM deal and giving him a shot to re-establish himself as a starter. It worked, as he registered a 3.50 ERA with the Bucs, allowing them to flip him to the Cardinals for a couple of younger players. Nunez has yet to reach the majors and is struggling in Triple-A right now, but he’s still just 22 years old. Baseball America and FanGraphs both considered him the club’s #21 prospect coming into the season.

Oviedo was initially a starter with the Cards but got bumped to the bullpen last year. The Pirates are giving him another shot at rotation work with good results so far. He has a 2.78 ERA in 11 starts for Pittsburgh between last year and this year, with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 54.8% ground ball rate. Oviedo has more than doubled his curveball usage in 2023, and is throwing the pitch harder than ever before. It’s a small sample, but his swinging-strike rate is up from 11.2% to 14.6%. He’s under club control through 2027.

_____________________________________________

It’s no secret that the Pirates are a low-spending club. Looking at data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, which goes back to the year 2000, they’ve never even made it to the middle of the pack in terms of payroll. They’ve frequently been at the very bottom of spenders and their highest relative rank was getting to 19th place way back in 2001. For the clubs that keep the purse strings that tight, it’s essential that they succeed in getting the most out of younger players who haven’t yet maximized their earning power.

Since the major league economic system artificially deflates player salaries until they get to six years of service time, it’s important for a club on the stingy side to find good young players, whether it’s those that they draft/sign or those they get from other organizations. As the Pirates appear to be on the verge of being respectable again, or perhaps have already arrived, they seem to be doing just that. As mentioned, they’ve had the occasional clunker, like the Holmes deal, but a decent chunk of the roster was built via trade. Two of their regular outfielders were acquired in trades, as was their everyday shortstop, although he’s on the shelf right now. Their dealing has also given them two of their five rotation members, some of their best relievers, a few utility players and some key prospects.

NL Central Notes: Frelick, Houser, Wainwright, Rodriguez, Pirates

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A left thumb sprain sent Brewers outfield prospect Sal Frelick to the seven-day Triple-A injured list this week, and MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets that Frelick is getting a second opinion on the injury.  Though a second opinion is often something of an ominous sign, “it sounds like the more [the Brewers] learn, the more they believe Sal avoided a serious injury,” McCalvy writes.  That’s good news for Frelick, who celebrated his 23rd birthday earlier this week.

A consensus top-50 prospect heading into the season, Frelick was picked 15th overall by the Brewers in the 2021 draft, and he has mostly been tearing up minor league pitching during his brief pro career.  He played in 46 Triple-A games last season and was projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2023, though Frelick has been set back by both his thumb problem and a slow start in general, as he has hit a modest .232/.318/.321 over 65 Triple-A plate appearances this year.  Had he been healthy, Frelick might have been in the majors as early as this weekend, given that Garrett Mitchell might be facing a season-ending shoulder surgery.  Once Frelick is himself healthy, he’ll certainly be on Milwaukee’s radar as a possible answer to its outfield depth issues.

More from around the NL Central….

  • Since the Brewers’ rotation has also been thinned by injuries to Brandon Woodruff and Aaron Ashby, the club is stretching out Adrian Houser as a potential starting option.  “Really, it’s day by day with all this because we’re checking health….He’s in a regular starter’s routine now, so we’ll see what happens after this one,” manager Craig Counsell told McCalvy and other reporters.  “If we need him, he’s ready to go.”  Houser has yet to pitch this season due to a groin injury, and is slated to toss 75-80 pitches in a Triple-A rehab start on Sunday.
  • Adam Wainwright is also set for another minor league rehab start, with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch tweeting that Wainwright is expected to toss around 75 pitches on Tuesday for the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate.  Wainwright has been recovering from a groin strain suffered during a Team USA workout during the World Baseball Classic, and it is possible that the Cards might activate their longtime ace from the 15-day IL if he gets through this second rehab outing without incident.
  • Pirates catching prospect Endy Rodriguez will be examined by doctors in Pittsburgh on Monday after suffering a right forearm strain, GM Ben Cherington told reporters (including Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).  Like Frelick, Rodriguez was also starting the season at Triple-A and was expected to arrive in the majors in 2023, and Rodriguez was helping his case with a respectable .263/.333/.456 slash line over 66 plate appearances.  Baseball America ranked Rodriguez 23rd on its preseason top-100 list, with MLB Pipeline and Baseball Prospectus each ranking Rodriguez as the 55th-best prospect in baseball.  Most of Rodriguez’s time has been spent as a catcher, but he has also played first base, second base, and both corner outfield slots, making him a unique multi-positional threat.

Big Hype Prospects: Wood, Holliday, Williams, Rodriguez, Crow-Armstrong

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The international signing market is well underway. We can think of these mostly 16-year-old boys as transplanted seeds. Some of them will grow big and strong over the next half-decade. Others will sprout then later wither during a drought or cold spell. Many won’t take to the new soil in which they’re planted. Perhaps the soil is too base or acidic. Or maybe a team thought they were buying one type of seed and actually got another. The wrong type of nurturing can ruin a plant. As outside observers, we can check back in a year or three once these youngsters have taken to their new soil.

Plant metaphor aside, we have a honking update from Baseball America to chew upon this week. They’ve released their initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list. I’m pleased to point out that Big Hype Prospects has correctly anticipated several notable surges up the prospect ranks, most notably number one overall Gunnar Henderson, number three Jackson Chourio, and number five Andrew Painter. Today, I’ll focus on a few names who have shot up the ranks.

For those of you who have been frustrated by the lack of “Big Hype” in our offseason prospects coverage, this is the episode for you.

Five BHPs In The News

James Wood, 20, OF, WSH (A)
(R/A) 348 PA, 12 HR, 20 SB, .313/.420/.536

Wood drew attention as the principal return in the Juan Soto trade. While he was joined by several promising young players, Wood is now seen as the “big get” in the deal. One concern from professional evaluators is the lack of successes from the Nationals development pipeline. While they’ve had a few big stars over the years (i.e. Soto), they’ve also seen a number of top prospects vastly underperform expectations (i.e. Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom).

If we assume the club doesn’t find some way to spoil Wood, there’s considerable upside here. Wood is built like a young Oneil Cruz. He’s a lean, physical giant with above-average speed, light tower raw power, a surprising feel for contact, and natural plate discipline. Like many young players, his contact profile is still geared toward ground balls. He also has an all-fields approach which has helped with his BABIPs at the expense of home runs. These will be the areas of his game likeliest to differentiate between a core performer or superstar future. Wood ranks 11th on the new Top 100 list.

Jackson Holliday, 19, 2B/SS, BAL (A)
(R/A) 90 PA, 1 HR, 4 SB, .297/.489/.422

The first overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday checks in as the 15th prospect per Baseball America. In limited exposure, he demonstrated pristine plate discipline and only rarely whiffed. The Orioles have recently garnered a sterling reputation when it comes to developing middle infielders. Holliday is still built like a typical 19-year-old athlete. He’s expected to add weight in the coming years. Scouts believe he’ll grow into 60-grade power. “Grow” is the operative word. Holliday and the Orioles will want to be careful. Too much growth could lead to a future as a second baseman with average or worse speed. Too little growth could leave his bat lacking thump.

Gavin Williams, 23, SP, CLE (AA)
(A+/AA) 115 IP, 11.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.96 ERA

Williams looks the part of a future ace, combining an effective upper-90s heater with a plus slider and curve. Like many power pitchers, his changeup flashes as usable but lags behind the other offerings enough that it’ll play fourth fiddle. A fly-ball pitcher with average command, Williams should be ready to contribute in Cleveland this season – health allowing. Williams is rated 20th by Baseball America. Between him and fast-rising Daniel Espino (19th-ranked), the Cleveland rotation could feature two lethal aces by the start of 2024.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 531 PA, 25 HR, 2 SB, .323/.407/.590

Back in September, my sources were talking about bumping Rodriguez onto their Top 100 lists. I said the following:

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Rodriguez now ranks 23rd. Victory lap complete, Rodriguez is on the cusp of reaching the Majors. The Pirates have quietly given their roster a chance to “surprise contend.” One position they’ve done little to solve is catcher. They’re currently set to roll out a duo of defensive specialist Austin Hedges and perennial third-catcher Tyler Heineman.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHI (MLB)
(A/A+) 423 PA, 16 HR, 32 SB, .312/.376/.520

Crow-Armstrong is spoken of as a Kiermaierian defender, giving him one of the highest floors in the entire minor leagues. On this strength, Baseball America has ranked him 25th. Concerns about his hit tool have been alleviated following a successful 2022 campaign. It’s now believed he’ll settle in as an above-average hitter in addition to being the best defensive outfielder in the league. While that sounds like the profile of an easy Top 10 prospect, there are still enough ways for his bat to stumble to merit caution. The next hurdle for him is to see how his bat reacts to higher-quality breaking balls in the upper minors.

Five More

Kodai Senga, NYM (29): This column typically avoids international free agents. Technically, Senga is a prospect and ranks 16th. From the perspective of immediate contribution, only Henderson and Corbin Carroll are in the same stratosphere. Of course, Senga’s advanced age reduces his “value” as a prospect.

Evan Carter (20): Carter, another guy whose rise was anticipated by this column, is frequently comped to Brandon Nimmo. The left-handed hitter is carried by plate discipline and a feel for contact. His power isn’t a total zero, but it lags behind his other hitting traits. He might top out as a 20-homer threat, or he might not climb that far. Even so, he’s a high-probability future core performer. He’s ranked 26th. Teams value these sorts of players – just look at what Nimmo earned in free agency.

Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (24): There’s disagreement about which of the Diamondbacks young pitchers will turn out as the best performer. Baseball America has hitched its stakes to Pfaadt after his breakout 2022 campaign. He ranks 27th. We discussed him last week.

Marco Luciano, SFG (21): At one point, Luciano was trending toward top overall prospect status – much the way Chourio is now. Some of Luciano’s skills haven’t developed as expected, and his meteoric rise has stalled to a more gradual approach to the Majors. Luciano, 37th-ranked, still projects as a prodigious power hitter, one with flaws and a future move down the defensive spectrum.

Kevin Parada, NYM (21): At 50th on the list, Parada’s was the first name to catch me entirely by surprise. The 11th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Parada ranks where he does due to promising offensive traits and roughly average defense. Parada was taken with the compensation pick for not signing Kumar Rocker in 2021. Rocker, you might note, does not rank in the Top 100.

Pirates Announce Several Roster Moves

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In advance of the Rule 5 draft deadline, the Pirates have announced they’ve selected the contracts of Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, Colin Selby and Jared Triolo to their 40-man roster. In corresponding moves, Tyler Heineman, Jeremy Beasley, Manny Banuelos and Junior Fernandez have all been designated for assignment. Their 40-man roster remains full.

Pittsburgh acquired Rodriguez from the Mets as part of the three-team trade centered around Joe Musgrove heading to San Diego. He’s powered through the minor leagues this past year, making it all the way to Triple-A by season’s end. Across three levels, he hit .323/.407/.590 with 25 home runs. He appeared mostly at catcher, but also logged some time in the corner outfield, and at first and second base in 2022. The 22-year-old was ranked in the top-100 prospects in the game by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, and given the Bucs’ lack of catching options on the major league depth chart, there appears a strong chance he makes it to the big leagues sometime in 2023.

Burrows landed fifth in Baseball America’s mid-season ranking of the Pittsburgh’s prospects. An eleventh round pick in 2018, Burrows spent half the year at Double-A before being promoted to Triple-A in June. In 12 starts at Double-A, Burrows had a 2.94 ERA, striking out batters 32.4% of the time and walking them 8.9% of the time. A big drop in strikeouts at Triple-A (down to 23.3%) largely accounted for his ERA spiking to 5.31 after his promotion, although his opponents BABIP also jumped about 40 points. Nonetheless, a couple of strong months at Triple-A to begin 2023 and it won’t be long before the 23-year-old finds his way to Pittsburgh.

Selby was a 16th round pick in 2018, and began his career as a starter before the Pirates shifted him to the bullpen last year. While the results weren’t particularly encouraging initially, he’s had a strong 2022 campaign at Double-A and made it to Triple-A briefly at the end of the season. In 32 2/3 innings at Double-A, Selby had a 29.7% strikeout rate against a 10.1% walk rate on the way to a 2.20 ERA. He only threw three innings at Triple-A, but should start there next season and could be a depth option for Pittsburgh’s bullpen next summer.

Triolo was picked up in the third round of the 2019 draft, and spent the entire 2022 campaign at Double-A. He hit a solid .282/.375/419, and as the line would suggest, posted a strong walk rate of 12.7% against a 17.6% strikeout rate. He’s predominantly a third baseman, but logged time at shortstop and center field in 2022. Given the presence of Ke’Bryan Hayes at third for the foreseeable future in Pittsburgh, it’s possible Triolo has a future as a utility man.

On the DFA side of things, only Heineman and Banuelos saw any meaningful time in the big leagues. Heineman appeared in 52 games at catcher, batting .211/.277/.254, while Banuelos threw 32 2/3 innings of 4.96 ERA ball after coming across from the Yankees mid-season. Fernandez only threw 3 1/3 innings for the Pirates, and Beasley only threw at their Triple-A affiliate.

Big Hype Prospects: Tovar, Flores, Rodriguez, Manzardo, Gentry

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we use Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year awards as a lens to highlight a few guys who didn’t get enough love in this column.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AAA)
(AA) 295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Tovar wasn’t picked for the Rockies Player of the Year in what ultimately was a coin-flip situation with Adael Amador. However, we discussed Amador last week, and Tovar is set to make his debut today. After performing well in Double-A, Tovar compiled 23 successful plate appearances at Triple-A. He’ll get a brief trial to finish out 2022 while the club considers its long-term plans.

Scouting reports often start with Tovar’s defense which is universally well-regarded and should stand out in a post-extreme-shifts metagame. He relies far less on positioning than the many big-bodied shortstops around the league. As a hitter, he’s improved his quality of contact this season. There’s still concern he’ll be strikeout and soft contact prone early in his career as he further develops his plate discipline. His selectivity does seem to be trending in a positive direction.

A couple freely available reports such as this one from FanGraphs make mention of his hit tool as a carrying trait. Hit-tool-oriented prospects tend to have rocky developmental paths (no pun intended). At lower levels, they perform well against pitches outside of the zone which lends itself to an ineffective, swing-happy approach in the Majors. We’ll soon get a first look at how Tovar adjusts.

Wilmer Flores, 21, SP, DET (AA)
83.2 IP, 10.22 K/9, 2.26 BB/9, 3.01 ERA

The latest pitcher to arise in the Tigers system, Flores squashed High-A hitters early in 2022 before moving on Double-A. Not to be confused with his brother, 10-year veteran infielder Wilmer Flores, Flores is a pitcher by the same name who relies on arm strength and a pair of power breaking balls. Reports mention poor command despite a low walk rate – an indication he’s throwing his stuff in the zone and letting hitters get themselves out. For a poor-command pitcher with plus stuff, there are worse ways to develop. This season, at least two notoriously errant relievers – Jose Alvarado and Felix Bautista – had breakouts by simply throwing more pitches in the strike zone.

Flores entered the season firmly considered a future reliever. His work this year, including maintaining velocity deep into outings, is beginning to change that perspective.

Endy Rodriguez, 22, C/2B, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 138 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .356/.442/.678

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, Rodriguez’s development advanced by leaps and bounds this season. He entered the year as a utility man with some catching experience. He now looks the part of either a premium catcher or second baseman. His hitting, which has always been discipline-forward, took a big step this season. Including all three levels he’s played, Rodriguez hit 24 home runs, 37 doubles, and three triples in 520 plate appearances. Not only is he hitting for power, he’s making excellent swing decisions and improving at every level. In a more widely applauded system, this performance could merit inclusion among the Top 25 prospects. As it stands, he’s quietly leaping onto Top 100 lists.

Kyle Manzardo, 22, 1B, TBR (AA)
122 PA, 5 HR, 1 SB, .323/.402/.576

A six-foot-one-inch first baseman, Manzardo will have to mash to earn his way to the Majors. Fortunately, he’s already doing so. He also finds himself in the right organization. The Rays are the only team to give the similarly height-deprived Ji-Man Choi a chance to find a role. Manzardo shows better potential to avoid strikeouts than Choi while maintaining comparable plate discipline. Including High-A, his 22 home runs in 397 plate appearances represent an improvement on preseason scouting reports that suggested he had below-average power. Manzardo, a left-handed hitter, skews slightly to fly ball contact. Depending on the development of his power, he could become a premium first baseman or else struggle with low BABIPs at the upper levels. The early returns suggest the first outcome is likelier.

Tyler Gentry, 23, OF, KC (AA)
331 PA, 16 HR, 8 SB, .321/.417/.555

The Royals were perhaps held back by the sheer volume of prospects they promoted to the Majors this season. That also means there’s room for new names to ascend, like Gentry. A well-rounded hitter, Gentry thrived in 152 High-A plate appearances before ascending to Double-A where he continued to excel. Per Baseball America, he credits a simplified approach and load with his offensive breakout – not that he wasn’t already a well-regarded hitter entering the season. The knock on him is his defense. He’s a corner outfielder who isn’t known for particularly good jumps. It’s a profile that requires a big bat to work in the Majors. While he doesn’t have a single carrying trait as a hitter, the entire profile plays up thanks to plus discipline and a knack for barreled contact. Keep an eye on his BABIPs next season.

Five More

Taylor Dollard, SEA (23): The Mariners graduated Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby. Matt Brash joined the bullpen, Emerson Hancock had a down season, and Noelvi Marte was exported to Cincinnati. Dollard steps in as a candidate for the top spot in the Seattle system on a pitchability basis. The right-hander limits walks (1.94 BB/9) and can induce plenty of whiffs when needed. He mostly pitches to contact, making him a potential future innings-eater on track to debut next season.

Louie Varland, MIN (24): Making his third big league start as I write, Varland pitched ably in 20 Double-A appearances before an impressive four-game stint in Triple-A. While he’s not a physical specimen and lacks the mutant velocity associated with most of today’s pitching prospects, Varland does possess a four-pitch repertoire of average offerings. He’s able to mix and match in a way that should, eventually, keep big league hitters off balance. He’ll probably toss his share of clunkers along the way.

Jeremy De La Rosa, WSH (20): A left-handed hitting center fielder with defensive chops, De La Rosa performed well as an age-appropriate position player at Low-A. A promotion to High-A didn’t slow his base thievery, but it did render his bat impotent (53 wRC+). De La Rosa seems poised for a slow-burn developmental path. Defense all but assures an eventual Major League arrival while a high strikeout rate could render him a long-term backup.

Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (22): A five-foot-eight-inch utility man, Rafaela hit for surprising power across two levels this season. He’s an aggressive hacker with plenty of swing-and-miss to his game, traits that could be exploited in the upper levels. This season, he managed 21 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 524 plate appearances split between High- and Double-A. He turned 22 five days ago.

Colson Montgomery, CWS (20): Montgomery started slow and didn’t impress in several looks I took this season. However, the composite stats show promise from the multi-sport athlete. He makes a ton of contact, works counts well, and is already developing sneaky power. Most players with his background – he was a rising hoops star who also played quarterback – tend to move slowly through the lower levels. Montgomery has already risen to Double-A.

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