Brian Cashman Discusses Possible Extensions, Current Roster
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke with the media this week and addressed various topics. Notably, he downplayed the possibility of an extension for either outfielder Juan Soto or infielder Gleyber Torres, both of whom are impending free agents. He also indicated it’s still possible for roster additions, with pitching a likely target area.
“The odds are this is a one-year situation,” Cashman said about Soto, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “I don’t see too many things stopping him from reaching free agency.” That assessment of the situation tracks with publicly-available information, as well as logic. Soto is just 25 years old but already has six years of elite production in the major leagues. Most free agents don’t reach free agency until they are around 30 years old but Soto is on track to get there around his 26th birthday, which will be at the end of October.
Despite his youth, he’s already hit 160 home runs in 779 career games, while also drawing walks more often than he strikes out. He’s hit .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154 and has never posted a wRC+ lower than 143 in any individual season. That combination of youth and talent has long made it seem as though a trip to free agency would be fairly inevitable. While with the Nationals in 2022, Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer, which is what led to him being dealt to the Padres.
The Yankees sent five players to the Padres this winter to get Soto and Trent Grisham, likely knowing full well that it was probably going to be a one-year proposition, with Cashman’s comments today reflecting that. Now that Soto has moved closer to free agency, his earning power has only increased since he turned down that $440MM offer, making the odds of keeping him from the open market even lower. The Yanks will have a chance to bring him back via free agency, but they will have to compete with the other clubs around the league in what is sure to be a hotly contested market.
As for Torres, it was reported back in November that the club had not engaged Torres on any extension talks. The infielder even replied “I wish” when asked about the possibility. Cashman confirmed to Greg Joyce of The New York Post this week that the club has not had any extension talks with him. Torres has been a solid player for the Yanks, hitting 123 home runs in his 734 contests thus far. His .267/.334/.454 batting line translates to a 116 wRC+. His defense at second base has been passable at times, though it was graded poorly last year.
While he’s set to be a key piece of the 2024 club, the Yanks likely feel they can pivot to a post-Torres era fairly easily. Oswald Peraza was still considered a top 100 prospect before he exhausted his rookie status last year, but he’s blocked from his natural shortstop position by Anthony Volpe. Peraza still has one option year remaining and could perhaps take over the keystone when Torres hits free agency. They also have multi-positional guys like Oswaldo Cabrera and DJ LeMahieu who could factor in at that spot.
As for the rest of the roster, Cashman said that it’s not “pencils down,” per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. “I guess it’s always pitching,” he added about a concerning area. The Yankees project to have a rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt. That’s a good rotation if healthy but that’s a big “if” as each of Rodón, Cortes and Stroman missed significant time last year. The club also subtracted from their depth when they included four possible starting pitchers in the Soto deal.
Adding to that group would be sensible but the finances may be tight. Roster Resource has the club’s competitive balance tax number at $307MM right now, well beyond the top tier of $297MM. As a third-time payor at that level, any additional spending comes with a 110% tax. Since they have five rotation spots allocated and they effectively have to pay double on any future signings, they may stick to depth signings on minor league deals, though a significant injury can always change that calculus.
Yankees, Gleyber Torres Avoid Arbitration
The Yankees and infielder Gleyber Torres have avoided arbitration, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The Octagon client will make $14.2MM this year in his final year of club control before reaching free agency.
Torres just turned 27 in December, so he’s on track to become a free agent at an earlier point of his career than most free agents. He put together a strong .273/.347/.453 slash in 672 trips to the plate in 2023, popping 25 home runs and connecting on 28 doubles and a pair of triples. Torres walked at a 10% clip — the highest mark of his career in a full season — and struck out at a career-low 14.6% clip. He added 13 steals in 19 tries as well. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-4) and Outs Above Average (-3) pegged him as a slightly below-average defender, but neither portrayed him as a pure liability. Torres’ well-rounded offensive output more than offset any shortcomings with the glove.
While Torres has been an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout his Yankees tenure, it seems increasingly likely that he’ll play out his final season of club control in Yankee pinstripes. He was the team’s second-best hitter behind Aaron Judge last season, and the Yanks are going all out in an effort to return to the postseason after last year’s miss — evidenced by their acquisition of Juan Soto, their aggressive (but unsuccessful) pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and tonight’s subsequent $37MM deal with right-hander Marcus Stroman. Add in the club’s trade for division rival outfielder Alex Verdugo and the potential for some further free-agent upgrades in the bullpen, and it’s clear the Yankees are focused on putting the best possible team on the field. Torres should be a pivotal part of that.
Torres has had an up-and-down tenure in the Bronx. He’ll probably never replicate the 38-homer season he delivered in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019, but after moving off shortstop to a second base position that suits him far better, he’s been a consistently above-average hitter. Whether that’s pure happenstance or whether the pressures of struggling at shortstop were weighing on him at the plate can never be definitively proven, but either way, Torres has hit .266/.330/.452 since his position change.
Assuming he’s able to author a third consecutive season in that general vicinity, Torres will reach free agency next year as one of the top infielders available — both based on his age and his offensive track record. He’d be a surefire candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer, giving the Yankees the opportunity to recoup some value in the form of a 2025 draft pick (as will be the case with the aforementioned Soto). That could well be the ultimate route for Torres, too, as the Yankees could turn the second base job over to prospect Oswald Peraza in 2025, when he’ll still be just 24 years of age.
Boone: LeMahieu Will Be Yankees’ Third Baseman In 2024
As trade rumblings surrounding star Padres outfielder Juan Soto and the Yankees look to be nearing a tipping point, there’s other significant news in the Bronx as well. Manager Aaron Boone announced at the Winter Meetings this morning that veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu will line up as the team’s primary third baseman next season (link via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Boone indicated yesterday that an outside acquisition at third base wasn’t likely, as the team felt covered with internal options. Today’s statement is a more forceful declaration of that likelihood.
LeMahieu, 35, is entering the fourth season of a six-year $90MM contract. He’s bounced around the diamond since originally arriving in New York in the 2018-19 offseason, spending considerable time at every infield position other than shortstop. Third base was his primary position in 2023, however, as he logged nearly 600 innings there and turned in a sound defensive effort in the eyes of Defensive Runs Saved (3), Ultimate Zone Rating (3.2) and Outs Above Average (3).
The remainder of the Yankees’ infield looks largely set. Anthony Rizzo will return to man first base, while Gleyber Torres is entering his final arbitration season and lined up as the primary second baseman. Anthony Volpe had an up-and-down rookie season at shortstop, ultimately putting together a 20-20 season with good defense but an underwhelming .209/.283/.383 batting line on the whole. Prospect Oswald Peraza gives the Yankees some additional depth at any position other than first base, but with no clear path to a starting role at present, he could open the season in a utility role, covering multiple spots on the diamond and spelling the regulars. (Peraza is out of minor league options and thus cannot be sent to Triple-A.) The versatility offered by both Peraza and LeMahieu would allow the Yankees to rather seamlessly cover an absence anywhere in the infield.
The 2023 season wasn’t LeMahieu’s best at the plate — far from it — but he still turned in a roughly average (by measure of wRC+) .243/.327/.390 batting line with 15 home runs, 22 doubles and three triples. The veteran infielder walked at a strong 10.7% clip, the second-highest mark of his career, but also fanned at a career-worst 22.2%. LeMahieu didn’t expand the zone any more than he did in seasons prior — he actually improved his chase rate from 2022 to 2023 — but his contact rate on both strikes and balls off the plate dipped.
LeMahieu entered the 2023 season with a lifetime 92.7% contact rate on swings at pitches in the zone but saw that number drop to 89.8% last year. His contact rate on the relatively rare chases off the plate was more concerning; LeMahieu entered 2023 with a career 76.1% contact rate on balls off the plate (including a nearly 80% mark from 2020-22) but made contact on just 70.2% of such offerings last year. He remained productive against fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers alike) but saw his numbers against opponents’ sliders, sweepers and cutters take a big hit. Time will tell whether that’s the beginning of a more alarming trend or simply a one-year aberration.
With regard to the remainder of the offseason, LeMahieu’s formal anointment as the Yankees’ everyday third baseman is of note. The Yankees already acquired Alex Verdugo from the archrival Red Sox and are ostensibly deep in talks for the aforementioned Soto. That would constitute a major revamp of the outfield alignment, but it seems there’ll be more continuity in the infield. Torres has been floated as a possible trade candidate at various points, and Peraza’s presence could embolden the Yankees to make some kind of move if the right opportunity presented itself. But Torres was also the team’s second-best hitter behind Judge this past season, and the Yankees would surely only swap him out if it meant acquiring immediate MLB help elsewhere (be it in the rotation, behind the plate or possibly in the ‘pen).
Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks
The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.
All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.
It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.
But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.
Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players: C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.
Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.
It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.
As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.
Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.
Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.
It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.
A Possible Yankees/Red Sox Trade That Makes Sense For Both Clubs
One of the big offseason questions for the Yankees is how to proceed with Gleyber Torres. The veteran second baseman is one year from free agency, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $15.3MM salary in his final year of arbitration.
That’s still solid value for the team’s second-best hitter. Torres had a strong 2023 campaign, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 home runs across 672 plate appearances. With 23-year-old Oswald Peraza having reached the MLB level, there’s a case for the Yankees to move Torres for help elsewhere on the roster.
Chris Kirschner and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic reported on Wednesday that the Yankees had not engaged Torres’ camp on extension talks. Certainly, it’s early enough in the winter that they could still do so. Yet there hasn’t seemed much urgency on the part of the organization to keep Torres beyond his control window. During 2023 Spring Training, the infielder replied “I wish” when asked by ESPN’s Marly Rivera whether there had been any extension talks before he and the team agreed to a one-year arbitration deal.
The absence of an extension doesn’t mean the Yankees need to make a trade. They could retain Torres for a final season and potentially make him a qualifying offer next winter. Since they’re likely to exceed the luxury tax in 2024, the compensation pick would presumably fall after the fourth round if Torres declines a QO and signs with another team. New York could find a more valuable return this winter if they feel comfortable with Peraza stepping into an everyday second base role.
One potential trade partner: the archrival Red Sox. Rob Bradford of WEEI wrote yesterday that Boston identified Torres as a trade target during the 2023 season. Meanwhile, Sean McAdam of MassLive.com reports that the Yankees have shown prior interest in Boston right fielder Alex Verdugo, whom they could again pursue this offseason.
There’s merit to a potential swap involving Torres and Verdugo. Each is one year from free agency. Verdugo, as a left-handed hitting outfielder who rarely strikes out, is the type of player that Yankees GM Brian Cashman is openly targeting. The Red Sox have Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida alongside Verdugo as lefty-swinging outfielders. Boston’s first-year chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated this week they’ve already received interest in Verdugo from other teams.
Torres is the better player. Verdugo is coming off a .264/.324/.421 showing and has been a roughly league average hitter in three straight seasons. He has solid grades in right field but isn’t a fit in center. Torres has greater positional value as a middle infielder, even if he’s not a particularly strong defensive second baseman.
That makes Verdugo a little more affordable financially, however. Swartz projects him for a $9.2MM salary, roughly $6MM below the Torres estimate. The difference might not be enough for the Yankees to accept a direct one-for-one swap, but they’re close enough in trade value that it’s not hard to see the match on paper.
It should be noted that Boston’s reported interest in Torres this past season came under previous chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Breslow, hired three weeks ago, may have a different evaluation. With a lackluster second base group headlined by Pablo Reyes and Enmanuel Valdez, the desire for help at the position remains. Breslow indicated this week that the team could look for a second baseman, ideally one who hits from the right side. Bradford writes that some members of the Boston organization still view Torres as a good fit. With middle infield prospects Nick Yorke and Marcelo Mayer likely one season from MLB readiness, a veteran bridge at the position aligns with the organizational timeline.
The biggest obstacle may just be the acrimony between the organizations. The Red Sox and Yankees are unsurprisingly infrequent trade partners. They’ve lined up on deals just three times in the past 25 years. New York acquired minor league outfielder Greg Allen this past May. The Sox essentially “bought” prospect Frank German by taking on the Adam Ottavino contract in 2021. The teams swapped struggling veterans Stephen Drew and Kelly Johnson at the 2014 deadline.
A deal involving Verdugo and Torres (or even a trade featuring just one of the two) would be much more notable than any of those transactions. There’s an argument that each player is a better fit for the other team’s roster as currently constructed. With both clubs trying to jump from the bottom half of the AL East back to the postseason, it’s one of various paths they could consider in the weeks to come.
Cashman: Yankees Seeking Two Outfielders
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman met with reporters this afternoon at the GM Meetings. Asked about areas of the roster that need to be addressed, he forthrightly replied the club “(needs) two outfielders” (video provided by SNY).
The longtime baseball operations leader pointed to the late-season injury to rookie center fielder Jasson Dominguez, who will be out into the middle of the summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery. “Now I need a center fielder, I need a left fielder, preferably left-handed,” Cashman said.
Cashman also alluded to the possibility of making a move involving what he termed an “infield surplus.” The Yankees have Gold Glove winner Anthony Volpe at shortstop, while 23-year-old Oswald Peraza is arguably ready for an everyday look at second or third base. The former top prospect struggled to a .191/.267/.272 line in 52 MLB games this year but had a more impressive .268/.357/.479 showing in Triple-A. Combined with his reputation for plus defense throughout the infield, Peraza could take a step forward in 2024.
The Yankees have Gleyber Torres as the starting second baseman. The right-handed hitter was New York’s second-best offensive player this past season, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers. Torres hasn’t played great defense and is entering his final year of arbitration control, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $15.3MM salary.
“Do you try to find a lane to get Peraza involved?” Cashman rhetorically asked. “We have Gleyber Torres in the last year of his contract. He had a hell of a year.” The GM pointed to a strong second half from DJ LeMahieu, who presumably projects as the starting third baseman.
Cashman stopped well shy of saying the Yankees would shop Torres, to be clear. Yet marketing the veteran second baseman could be a way of balancing the roster. In addition to the outfield needs, the GM pointed to an annual desire to bolster the pitching.
Owner Hal Steinbrenner also met with reporters this afternoon (relayed by Bill Ladson of MLB.com). “Everything is on the table when it comes to free agents,” he said. Steinbrenner went on to call a lack of run scoring the team’s biggest problem in 2023.
That all points to a potential run at a top-of-the-market bat, with Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger leading the free agent class. Bellinger, as a left-handed hitting center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this year, would certainly fit the roster on paper. Indeed, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the club is exploring the top of the offensive market — noting they’ve been in contact with Bellinger’s camp during the early stages of the offseason.
Juan Soto is the biggest subject of trade speculation this winter. It remains unclear how seriously the Padres might consider moving their star left fielder, although the Yankees would surely be in that mix if the Friars made Soto available. If they look further down on the trade front, the likes of Max Kepler or Trent Grisham could be on the block. Grisham is the superior defender, while Kepler has more offensive upside.
As things stand, New York only has Aaron Judge locked into an outfield spot. A short-term acquisition — Kepler, for instance, is one year from free agency — could allow the Yankees to preserve future flexibility if Dominguez returns in the second half. Everson Pereira is a highly-regarded talent who could play his way into the left or center field mix but hit only .151/.233/.194 in his first 27 big league contests.
AL East Notes: Ryu, Wells, Yankees
Hyun Jin Ryu isn’t ready to say goodbye to Major League Baseball. Speaking with Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, the 36-year-old pitcher didn’t offer much insight about his impending free agency, saying, “I don’t know what to tell you at this point. I think we’ll have to wait and see. Only time will tell.” However, while his comments weren’t very revealing, they make it sound like he isn’t planning to retire, at least without testing the waters of free agency first.
To that end, Ryu reconfirmed that when he is ready to leave MLB, he will return to the KBO to finish his career with the Hanwha Eagles. He played for the Eagles from ages 19 to 25. “I haven’t changed my mind on that,” he said. “I will absolutely make that happen.” Once again, his response implies that retirement isn’t on his mind quite yet.
Ryu signed a four-year, $80MM contract with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2020 season. The southpaw excelled during the first year of the deal, pitching to a 2.69 ERA and finishing third in voting for the AL Cy Young. He was solid but hardly ace-like the following season, posting a 4.37 ERA in 31 starts. Unfortunately, his next two campaigns were marred by injury. Ryu needed Tommy John surgery last summer, and he made just 17 starts from 2022-23. He was serviceable upon his return, rejoining the Blue Jays rotation for August and September, but his underlying numbers were worrisome (17% strikeout rate, 4.70 SIERA), and he failed to make the roster for the AL Wild Card Series.
Ryu will be 37 next season, but given his long track record of success and his dominant run from 2018-20, he should draw some interest this winter. If he doesn’t receive any offers to his liking, perhaps he’ll consider heading back to the KBO, but at least for now, it seems like he’s planning to pitch another MLB season in 2024.
In other news from the AL East…
- Tyler Wells lost his job in the Orioles’ rotation this summer. He was optioned just ahead of the trade deadline, and he transitioned to a relief role at Triple-A. About eight weeks later, the towering right-hander earned a call-up back to the big leagues, where he made four scoreless appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen. He made three more scoreless appearances in the playoffs, taking the mound in all three of Baltimore’s ALDS games. Yet in spite of his success out of the ‘pen, the Orioles are expecting Wells to rejoin the starting rotation in 2024, according to Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com. In 20 starts last year, the 29-year-old pitched to a 3.98 ERA and a 4.28 SIERA. However, he looked much stronger over the first three months of the season before he ran out of gas in July. With another year of big league experience under his belt, the Orioles will hope he can stick around for a full season in the rotation.
- In the latest edition of his Yankees Beat newsletter, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com touched on the team’s surplus of options in the middle infield. He suggests the Yankees could look to trade Gleyber Torres, but the possibility of dealing Oswald Peraza is not up for discussion. Torres is a talented second baseman, but he’s a known quantity at this point, whereas Peraza has untapped potential at the plate and in the field. What’s more, the Yankees only have one year of team control remaining over Torres, while Peraza won’t even be eligible for arbitration for at least three more seasons.
The Yankees’ Offseason Middle Infield Question
MLBTR released our annual projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players last week. Among the class, only Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a higher figure than Gleyber Torres. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects the Yankee second baseman for a salary in the $15.3MM range for his final year of club control.
Torres has earned that lofty estimate with consistent offense through his five-plus seasons in the majors. He’s a career .267/.334/.454 hitter in a little over 3000 trips to the plate and has been above-average in five of six campaigns. This past season was typical for the righty-swinging infielder. Torres connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 showing across 672 plate appearances. He walked at a strong 10% clip while punching out only 14.6% of the time, the lowest rate of his career.
The glove is less reliable. Torres was a well below-average defender at shortstop earlier in his career. He has received tolerable but fringy grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at second base. Torres isn’t in danger of moving off the keystone. The bat carries the profile, though.
Even with a projected salary north of $15MM, Torres isn’t a non-tender candidate. He’s an above-average regular who would immediately be the best player available in a barren free agent middle infield class were the Yankees to inexplicably cut him loose. It’s fairly common for teams to consider trade scenarios for good but not elite players headed into their final seasons of club control on lofty projected salaries. That’s a more realistic possibility.
Dealing veterans in the five-plus year service class isn’t solely a move made by non-contenders. The Blue Jays (Teoscar Hernández), Brewers (Hunter Renfroe) and Twins (Gio Urshela) all made such moves last offseason and still made a playoff run. Toronto dealt Hernández for affordable bullpen help in right-hander Erik Swanson and to clear room in the outfield for a more defense-oriented group with the subsequent acquisitions of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Milwaukee and Minnesota made their moves mostly with payroll in mind, though the Brewers did bring in middle reliever Elvis Peguero as part of the Renfroe return.
Clearly, the Yankees aren’t operating with the same financial constraints as the Brewers or Twins. Yet both those teams were also freed up to part with a solid veteran regular because they felt a young, pre-arbitration player could step up in the near future. Milwaukee had outfield prospects Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick on the doorstep of the big leagues. The Twins were set to turn third base to second-year player José Miranda, with former first overall pick Royce Lewis a midseason possibility for an infield role following his return from ACL surgery.
For the Yankees, the biggest question might be whether they believe 23-year-old Oswald Peraza is capable of assuming that mantle. Peraza, who debuted with a strong 18-game showing late in 2022, spent the bulk of last season in Triple-A. He had a solid .268/.357/.479 line in 300 plate appearances there. The Yankees recalled him once they fell out of contention in late August. Peraza got regular infield run for five weeks but didn’t make an impact. He hit just .198/.236/.306 in 33 games to close out the year.
It’d be easier for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office to pencil Peraza for an everyday role in 2024 had he taken advantage of that opportunity. There’s nevertheless still an argument that’s their best course of action. Peraza is out of options, so the Yankees can’t send him back to Triple-A. (He’d surely be claimed on waivers if they tried to take him off the 40-man roster.) He’ll have to be on the major league roster unless the Yankees surprisingly traded him. If they’re hopeful he’ll be able an above-average regular at some point, it makes sense to get him consistent playing time.
That could come at third base, where Peraza spent the majority of his time in September. The Yankees received a putrid .221/.294/.361 slash from that position this year. That includes below-average work from the since-released Josh Donaldson, impending free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Peraza himself. DJ LeMahieu was the other player with extended action at the position. The 35-year-old had a league average season overall despite solid production in the second half.
If the Yankees still view LeMahieu as an everyday player or land a free agent at the hot corner like Jeimer Candelario, the keystone becomes the obvious position for Peraza. The organization stuck with Anthony Volpe at shortstop through a middling offensive season. He outperformed most expectations defensively and seems entrenched there. Anthony Rizzo is expected back at first base, where LeMahieu saw most of his reps in the season’s final month.
There’s enough infield talent the Yankees could turn to the trade market on Torres. New York has a number of issues on the roster. There are questions in both outfield spots opposite Aaron Judge. Injuries or down years for each of Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas (the latter two of whom are headed to free agency) exposed the rotation depth in 2023. Their catchers contributed almost nothing offensively.
New York will have to address some of those shortcomings via free agency. Shopping Torres is another potential avenue for upgrading a different area of the roster. As the Hernández, Renfroe and Urshela deals demonstrate, there’s not immense trade value with one relatively costly season of a solid regular. While Torres is probably the best player of that group, he’s likely to also be the most expensive.
There’s more trade appeal now than there would be midseason, however. If the Yankees trade Torres during the offseason, an acquiring club could make him a qualifying offer at the end of next season — thereby entitling them to draft compensation if he departs in free agency. That wouldn’t be possible if Torres were dealt at next summer’s deadline, since teams can only make a QO to a player who spent the entire season on their roster.
The demand for middle infield solutions might also never be higher. The free agent second base class is headlined by the likes of Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier. For teams trying to upgrade at the keystone — the White Sox, Mariners and Tigers may all fit that description and have short-term payroll space — the trade market is the clearest path.
Whether any team would be willing to make a strong enough offer for the Yankees to part with their second-best hitter won’t be known until the offseason. New York’s offense was a disaster when Judge went on the injured list. Trading Torres would thin it further unless they directly swapped him for a similarly productive outfield bat. Cashman and his staff have kicked around trade scenarios regarding Torres in the past and have yet to get a deal they find compelling. If they feel Peraza warrants a similar extended look to the one they gave Volpe this year, they could explore the market again this offseason.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Red Sox, Hernandez, Jansen, Torres, Cortes
The Orioles‘ 5-3 victory over the Rays today extended Baltimore’s lead over Tampa Bay to two games, and continued a dream month for the upstart O’s. Between Baltimore’s 13-6 record and the Rays’ 4-14 record in July, the Orioles have completely wiped out their 6.5-game deficit from the start of the month, and now look like genuine World Series contenders. Even with this big surge, it remains to be seen how the O’s might approach the trade deadline, as ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that according to executives on other teams, the Orioles have thus far looked like “measured buyers” who are “willing to deal from position player surplus to upgrade pitching, but not perceived to be fishing for big, pricey deals, at this point.”
Should such a stance continue through August 1, Baltimore fans might not be pleased, as the fanbase was already annoyed enough last summer when the O’s dealt Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez at the deadline rather than make a push for a playoff spot. (Of course, landing Yennier Cano from the Twins has made the Lopez trade a lot more popular in hindsight.) Obviously selling isn’t on the radar for GM Mike Elias this year, but that also doesn’t necessarily mean a blockbuster move is in store. Since the Orioles’ core of young talent is so promising, Elias might not see 2023 as the time for an all-in type of trade, especially considering that the O’s might not yet have decided which of their many star prospects they see as building blocks, and which might be trade chips. Of course, history has shown that lower-level deadline trades can often lead to postseason success just as easily as a headline-grabbing transaction, so Elias can pursue plenty of avenues as he looks to put the final pieces to an exciting young team.
More from around the AL East…
- During an appearance on The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that the club was looking for starting pitching at the deadline, as well as a left-handed hitting middle infielder. Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and even part-time second baseman Justin Turner all swing from the right side, as do the injured Trevor Story and Pablo Reyes. Story’s return from the injured list should give the Red Sox more clarity on their muddled infield picture, yet there’s also a chance Boston could both buy and sell at the deadline, as the club did last year. To this end, pending free agent Hernandez could be expendable, and The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya writes that the Dodgers would have interest in a possible reunion if Hernandez was open to more of a part-time role. Whereas Boston has too many right-handed bats, the Dodgers have a surplus of left-handed hitters in the outfield, so Hernandez could add both lineup balance and positional versatility as a player capable of working in multiple positions — essentially his old role when he previously played in L.A. in 2015-20.
- X-rays were negative on Danny Jansen‘s left forearm after the Blue Jays catcher was hit by a Bryan Woo pitch in today’s game. Jansen was hit in the fifth inning and remained in the game until the seventh, and the Jays announced Jansen’s injury as a forearm contusion. It seems like Jansen will be day-to-day for now, though the Blue Jays could be shorthanded behind the plate until he is ready, since the Jays’ next offday isn’t until Thursday. Alejandro Kirk figures to be the starting catcher in the interim, with Tyler Heineman a call-up possibility from Triple-A, or Daulton Varsho perhaps an emergency catcher if Jansen only misses a game or two.
- In a pair of Yankees injury updates, Gleyber Torres also left today’s game due to left hip tightness. The issue isn’t serious enough at this time to require any tests, and manager Aaron Boone told The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner and other reporters that Torres was already feeling better postgame. Since New York doesn’t play on Monday, Torres might well not miss any game action after a day of rest.
- Nestor Cortes will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A today, the Yankees announced. Cortes hasn’t pitched since May 30 due to a strained rotator cuff, and the long layoff suggests that he’ll need multiple rehab outings before returning from the 60-day IL. Cortes struggled to a 5.16 ERA over his first 11 starts of the season, but if he returns in his 2021-22 form, he’ll provide a major boost to New York’s rotation in August.
Yankees Notes: Judge, Deadline Approach, Florial
The Yankees have dropped three straight games and have now tallied just two victories in their past 10 contests. Sitting in the unfamiliar setting of last place in the American League East, there are mounting questions about the team’s trade deadline approach. It would be out of character, to say the least, for the Yankees to engineer a wide-scale selloff at the deadline. And with New York still only two and a half games back from an AL Wild Card spot, that seems decidedly unlikely.
That said, the Yankees also have a porous roster, particularly with Aaron Judge on the injured list and facing a nebulous timeline for his return. General manager Brian Cashman said yesterday that it’s fair to characterize Judge’s return as “close” before taking a noncommittal stance on whether that constituted a matter of days or weeks (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). It remains unclear when the reigning AL MVP will return to the lineup; the Yankees are hitting .223/.294/.374 as a team in his absence.
With the team reeling and currently in the AL East cellar, there have naturally been calls from the fans for the Yankees to sell at the deadline, a possibility that was discussed on the most recent episode of the MLBTR Podcast. At least to some extent, that could wind up being the case. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that the Yankees could work to dip under the top tier of the luxury tax in over the next couple weeks. Presumably, that’d come by dealing away short-term players — those who’ll reach free agency at season’s end or perhaps those controlled only through the 2024 season.
At least with regard to their crop of impending free agents, however, that could be easier said than done. Luis Severino has struggled to a 6.66 ERA in 48 2/3 innings thus far, and the underlying metrics don’t give much cause for optimism. His 17.4% strikeout rate is a career-low, and his 9.4% walk rate is the second-highest of his career. He’s averaged 2.22 homers per nine innings pitched, yielding hard contact at the highest rate of his career, and is sitting on career-low swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates.
Utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, meanwhile, is hitting just .251/.309/.369. That’s 11% worse than average, by measure of wRC+. Acquired to be a stopgap at shortstop, Kiner-Falefa has just eight innings at that position in 2023 and has been used primarily as an outfielder this season. Defensive metrics haven’t provided a strong review of his glovework there, however.
Center fielder Harrison Bader is also a free agent at season’s end and is playing his customary brand of standout defense. However, his .275 on-base percentage also ranks 295th of the 326 players with at least 150 plate appearances this season. His overall .246/.275/.427 batting line checks in below average.
Frankie Montas, of course, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season. Trading any of Severino ($15MM in 2023), Montas ($7.5MM), Kiner-Falefa ($6MM) or Bader ($4.7MM) could be enough to dip the Yankees under the top tier of luxury penalization, as Roster Resource currently has them at $294.1MM — just $1.1MM over the limit.
The most palatable rental option for the Yankees to trade would be southpaw Wandy Peralta, who’s earning $3.35MM this season. He’s currently sporting a 2.48 ERA, but his 19.5% strikeout rate is below average and his 13.6% walk rate is an obvious eyesore. Still, Peralta is averaging just shy of 96 mph on his heater and also possesses a huge 63.2% ground-ball rate.
Rosenthal speculates on the possibility of a Gleyber Torres trade, which could simultaneously fetch more talent in return and also trim payroll more than any of those rentals aside from Severino. He’s earning $9.95MM in 2023 and hitting a solid .264/.333/.430 with 14 homers. The Yankees also have an in-house, MLB-ready alternative in young Oswald Peraza, who struggled in the Majors earlier but is slashing a .261/.352/.495 in Triple-A.
Looking at the situation as a whole, however, the final tax barrier is an odd line to draw in the sand. It’s a purely monetary line of penalization, and the Yankees are only narrowly north of it. The Yankees already committed to having their top pick in next year’s draft pushed back by 10 places when they exceeded the third tier of penalty, which sits at $273MM.
Striving to dip under that threshold would perhaps be logical but also unrealistic; trimming more than $21MM from the remaining payroll at this juncture of the season would be immensely difficult. Trades at this stage would only spare the Yankees the remainder those players’ salaries. That’s roughly $5.3MM on Severino, $1.7MM on Bader, $2.1MM on Kiner-Falefa, $1.2MM on Peralta and $3.5MM on Torres. Even trading that entire quintet would only get the Yankees about two-thirds of the way there.
None of that even takes into consideration the possibility of the Yankees simultaneously adding pieces, either. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted earlier in the week that in addition to the Yankees’ desire to upgrade in the outfield, they’ve been monitoring the catching, starting pitching and bullpen markets. That wide swath of needs speaks to the predicament in which the Yankees currently find themselves, but it’s notable that as of Monday the team appeared set on — or at least open to adding some pieces. Both Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson and Rockies outfielder Randal Grichuk have been of some interest to the Yankees, per Feinsand. Carlson, controlled through 2026, would be an affordable and long-term solution in the outfield.
The Yankees potentially have another affordable and controllable option down in Triple-A, where former top prospect Estevan Florial has put together a huge season. Designated for assignment on Opening Day and unclaimed on waivers, Florial has batted .291/.388/.535 with an already career-high 21 homers in just 335 plate appearances.
That production hasn’t been enough to get him a look in the big leagues, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic took a look at Florial’s situation, speaking to Triple-A skipper Shelley Duncan and others about the 25-year-old’s work ethic and motivation in the wake of that DFA and subsequent outright. It’s frankly surprising that the Yankees have continued to lean on journeymen Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun, Franchy Cordero and the aforementioned Kiner-Falefa in the outfield rather than give Florial some type of audition. Kuty suggests the team could look to trade him at the deadline, which could be a means of adding help in another area.
Broadly speaking, it’s strange to be discussing the Yankees in this context. They’re typically a motivated buyer at the trade deadline, one that has often acted aggressively and decisively in an effort to tighten their existing grip on a postseason spot. It’s a different feel in the Bronx this season, however, and various, simultaneous reports regarding payroll reduction, selling off short-term players and the possibility to add at virtually any spot on the roster only underscore the uncertainty surrounding the team.
We increasingly see modern front offices toe the line between “buyer” and “seller,” making moves in both directions in a given deadline season. The Yankees appear poised for such a hybrid approach to the ’23 deadline, though their play in the next couple weeks will surely prove instructive as well. If they’re able to right the ship and go on a winning streak of any note, Cashman & Co. could be emboldened to make moves that fall closer to the win-now side of the scale. Should the pendulum swing in the other direction, there’d be more urgency to take a step back and employ a longer-term focus.
The Yankees have one more game in Anaheim, where they’ve already lost two, before returning home to host struggling Royals and Mets teams for a combined five games. They’ll then head to Baltimore for three games and have one game against the division-leading Rays before the deadline rolls around. Their performance against a pair of sub-.500 teams on that homestand and in the subsequent four games against the top two teams in their own division will be worth watching with a careful eye; every win or loss is crucial at this point.