Did The Mets Rob The Astros?
Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen has come under fire at times since the team hired the former agent after the 2018 season, but BVW has nonetheless had his high points atop their front office. One of his best decisions in New York came in January 2019, when he acquired a player who’s now among the Mets’ most valuable hitters in a trade with the Astros.
Sixteen months ago, Van Wagenen and then-Astros GM Jeff Luhnow worked out a swap that sent infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis and INF Cody Bohanek to the Mets for the trio of second baseman Luis Santana, outfielder Ross Adolph and catcher Scott Manea. Nobody from that quintet looked like a high-end asset at the time, and Davis was the only member of the group with major league experience.
Davis, a third-round pick of the Astros in 2014, hit a miserable .194/.260/.321 in 181 plate appearances in their uniform from ’17-18. However, Davis did have his way with Triple-A pitchers, against whom he slashed .335/.400/.589 with 22 home runs in 450 trips to the plate.
Davis’ success at the highest level of the minors impressed the Mets, who now look as if they acquired a terrific hitter at a low price. Davis got his first extensive look in the majors last season, his age-26 campaign, and ran with it.
Across 453 PA, Davis batted a strong .307/.369/.527 (136 wRC+) with 22 home runs in his Mets debut. The righty swinger showed no vulnerability against either same-handed or southpaw pitchers in the process, and his Statcast numbers don’t suggest his success was fluky. On the contrary, Davis finished in the league’s 80th percentile or better in barrels, exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, hard-hit rate, expected weighted on-base average and expected batting average. His xwOBA (.383) outdid an already impressive real-life mark of .373 and ranked 21st in the league, placing him among a slew of big names.
As great as Davis’ offense was last season, defensive woes tamped down his value. He lined up at third and in left field, where he combined for minus-20 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-6.3 Ultimate Zone Rating. Still, thanks to his offensive breakout, the overall package was worth an above-average 2.4 fWAR. That’s especially good for someone who looked like a lottery ticket when the Mets got him, and for someone who made a minimum salary in 2019. Davis won’t be eligible to reach free agency until after 2024, which means he could be an important piece of New York’s offense for several more years (perhaps especially if the NL adds a DH).
Unlike Davis, Bohanek hasn’t shown a ton of potential so far, and the 24-year-old turned in fairly nondescript numbers at the High-A level last season. The Astros don’t seem as if they’ll miss him, but what about their return? Here’s how it has panned out through one season…
- Luis Santana: The Mets’ 19th overall prospect at MLB.com when the trade occurred, Santana’s now the outlet’s 22nd-ranked Astros farmhand. The 20-year-old hit just two homers last season, batting .267/.339/.352 in 186 Low-A attempts and .228/.333/.263 in 66 PA at the Double-A level.
- Ross Adolph: The 23-year-old outfielder combined for a .228/.357/.366 line with seven homers in 460 PA between Single-A and High-A ball last season. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel recently wrote for FanGraphs that he could amount to a role player in MLB.
- Scott Manea: The 24-year-old offered a .235/.347/.387 line with 12 HRs and 389 PA at the High-A level last season. He’s not regarded as a notable prospect.
This looks like anything but a can’t-miss package for the Astros, though it’s still way too early to throw dirt on the careers of anyone they picked up. The Mets, meanwhile, can’t be anything but thrilled with what they’ve gotten from Davis.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brodie Van Wagenen Provides J.D. Davis Update
The Mets received generally promising news on the shoulder health of corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen spoke with reporters including Tim Healey of Newsday (who provides a video on Twitter).
Davis underwent an MRI today. While the readout did identify some potential “previous injury” to Davis’s labrum, per Van Wagenen, that wasn’t deemed to be of concern. Davis “wasn’t symptomatic of anything beforehand” and the MRI “didn’t really show any new structural damage to his shoulder,” the GM explained.
Since the imaging also “didn’t show a ton of inflammation,” per Van Wagenen, Davis can begin the rehab process right away. Precisely when he will fully resume baseball activities remains to be seen; the current plan is for the team to re-assess the matter in one week’s time.
Davis says he has some aches and is “a little weak” in the shoulder, but has full range of motion and is generally “feeling alright.” (Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News provided video via Twitter.) While he’s feeling some sense of relief, the 26-year-old is still waiting to see how he progresses before declaring victory. Fortunately, so long as he bounces back at a reasonable pace, there’s certainly still a clear path for Davis to be ready to go at the start of the season.
J.D. Davis Slated For MRI
Mets corner infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis is heading in for an MRI today after suffering a shoulder injury yesterday, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (Twitter links). He was pulled from the club’s spring contest after diving for a groundball.
It’d be presumptuous even to speculate as to the possible outcomes here. The initial word is simply that Davis “jammed” the shoulder on the play. An examination from the Tigers’ team physician indicated a lack of damage to the labrum or rotator cuff.
If that all holds up following the more detailed examination, it’d represent good news for the Mets. The club has been snakebitten at times in recent years by injuries — especially to shoulders, it seems (Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, David Wright).
Davis was injured while playing at third base, but it seems he’s lined up at present to spend more of his time in left field. That flexibility is particularly useful for the Mets as they wait to see what they’ll get from players such as Yoenis Cespedes and Jed Lowrie. While Davis didn’t grade well at either position last year, the club will feel just fine putting him on the field if he can hit at anything approaching his 2019 levels (.307/.369/.527).
Details On Mets’ Pursuit Of Mookie Betts
Mookie Metts? It didn’t come to fruition, but the Mets did make an effort in December to acquire superstar outfielder Mookie Betts from Boston. The Red Sox ended up trading him to the Dodgers earlier this week.
One reason talks between the Mets and Red Sox broke down? The Mets weren’t open to moving infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil for just a year of control over Betts, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (they also wouldn’t give him to the Indians for shortstop Francisco Lindor). However, the Red Sox regarded McNeil as “integral” to a potential trade package, according to Sherman. Understandably, the Mets weren’t going to part with the versatile, inexpensive 27-year-old after he was one of the majors’ most effective offensive players from 2018-19.
While the Mets weren’t willing to surrender McNeil for Betts, they did offer packages centered on outfielder Brandon Nimmo and infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis (quality, affordable players in their own right), per Sherman. Those deals also would have included one of the Mets’ infield prospects in either Andres Gimenez or Ronny Mauricio, two top-100 farmhands. It seems the Mets, reluctant to absorb all of Betts’ $27MM salary, also would have tried to include one of their highly paid, unwanted veterans in outfielder Yoenis Cespedes or infielder Jed Lowrie in order to somewhat offset the money they’d have taken on had a deal with Boston gone through.
Considering that getting under the $208MM luxury-tax threshold was one of the main causes for the Red Sox’s decision to unload Betts (and left-hander David Price with him), adding Cespedes or Lowrie wouldn’t have been palatable for them. They wound up accepting the Dodgers’ offer of outfielder Alex Verdugo and two prospects – infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong – saving a total of $75MM in the process.
Meanwhile, although the Mets went big-game hunting for Betts, their outfield appears as if it’ll enter 2020 with mostly the same cast. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, even though none of the team’s current options can rival Betts. However, to their credit, McNeil, Nimmo, Davis, Michael Conforto and Dominic Smith all had good seasons a year ago. It’s anyone’s guess what the Mets will get from Cespedes after injuries shelved him for the vast majority of the prior three seasons, but he’s back on a reduced salary and has always produced when healthy.
Details On Mets’ Pursuit Of Starling Marte
Before shipping him to the Diamondbacks, the Pirates discussed Starling Marte in trade talks with the Mets. But it now seems the New York organization lacked especially serious interest in the veteran center fielder.
According to a report from Andy Martino of SNY.tv, the Mets declined to pursue any of three possible trade structures proposed by the Bucs. That included separate “package” scenarios “centered around” either J.D. Davis or Brandon Nimmo as well as one based around multiple top prospects.
It’s not especially surprising to hear that the Mets were disinterested in skimming from the top of their prospect pool. The club has recently parted with some notable young talent — most notably, in this memorable swap. The ultimate deal that did take place featured two quality, but far-off prospects from a well-stocked Arizona farm that could more readily withstand the loss.
Perhaps it’s also understandable that the New York org was not inclined to move Nimmo. He has had a few ups and downs and missed a big chunk of 2019 due to injury. But he’s also a rare talent in the on-base department, delivers value on the bases, and can play all three outfield positions. Through over a thousand career plate appearances, Nimmo owns a sturdy .254/.387/.440 slash — good for a 130 wRC+ that tops the career mean of teammate Michael Conforto (125 wRC+).
The most interesting news here is that the Mets were not really willing to discuss Davis in order to reel in Marte. True, he’s just 26 and has yet to reach arbitration (though he likely will next year as a Super Two). And Davis turned in a hefty .307/.369/.527 batting line with 22 long balls over 453 plate appearances last year. He rode a .355 BABIP to get there, though that was driven by exceptional contact numbers.
Clearly, the Mets believe that Davis can keep banging. It’s hard not to like what he showed last year. And he was a consistent producer in the minors, though his earlier MLB action didn’t leave cause for optimism. There’s some risk that the offensive profile isn’t an especially sustainable one. Of perhaps greater concern is the fact that Davis isn’t much of a contributor in other areas. He graded as a very poor baserunner (-2.8 BsR). While Davis is capable of lining up at the infield or outfield corners, metrics have generally panned his glovework.
It’s always hard to part with affordable, controllable players that have produced at the MLB level. In that regard, it’s hard to fault the Mets. But this is a season in which the team needs to win, and the roster would be in much better alignment with a true center fielder and one less corner piece. Whether there’s any realistic possibility of landing a new option in center isn’t clear. But there are likely still trade scenarios afoot involving some of the Mets’ corner players. More so than Nimmo or Davis, it’s still tough to know just what the team will do with Dominic Smith if he remains on hand.
Mets Injury Updates: J.D. Davis, Robert Gsellman
After storming back into the playoff picture after the trade deadline, the Mets took a tough loss against the lowly Royals last night. Coming off a series loss to the first-place Braves, the Mets remain two games out of playoff position. Their aggressiveness at the trade deadline prompted reactions ranging from surprise to accusations of front office overreach, and while they’ve already done enough to quell the harshest critics, they’ll likely need to up their game one more level to leapfrog a still-muddy field of contenders that includes the Phillies and the runners-up from the Central. As the Mets look to reset and charge again at the Royals in Kansas City, let’s check in on a couple of injury updates…
- First-time regular J.D. Davis was removed from yesterday’s game with right calf tightness, but it was a preventative move and the Mets do not anticipate Davis to miss any time, tweets Newsday’s Tim Healey. Acquired from the Astros this offseason, Davis has taken advantage of the opportunity in New York, making himself an indispensable part of Mickey Callaway’s everyday players. While starting 31 games at third and 47 in left, Davis has stroked for a line of .311/.374/.514 with 14 home runs and a healthy .203 ISO. His bat does the heavy lifting, as metrics don’t look favorably upon his defensive contributions at either third (-9 DRS, -5.4 UZR/150) or left field (-6 DRS, -14.8 UZR/150).
- In a full piece, Healey notes that reliever Robert Gsellman has been unavailable out of the pen for the past couple of days because of sore triceps. No word was given as to whether Gsellman would be available today, though the implication is he’ll avoid the injured list. With Seth Lugo and Edwin Diaz both giving up big hits this week, Gsellman’s return to health will give Callaway another option with high-leverage experience. The 26-year-old has 14 saves and 22 holds between this year and last, but his record is hardly spotless. He’s registered 10 blown saves over that same span. For the year, he’s been called upon 52 times for 63 2/3 innings with a 4.66 ERA/4.13 FIP/4.67 xFIP.
The Mets’ Unsung Offensive Star
It was an action-packed offseason for rookie Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who stole headlines with his transactions and his bold proclamations naming his club the favorite in the National League East. Van Wagenen’s roster hasn’t performed to expectations since then, but after a tumultuous few months, the team has climbed above .500 and put itself in the thick of the NL wild-card race. One of Van Wagenen’s less heralded offseason pickups has been among the Mets at the forefront of their midsummer hot streak.
There was little hype accompanying the Mets’ acquisition of infielder/outfielder J.D. Davis from the Astros on Jan. 6. The Mets surrendered three minor leaguers for Davis, who – despite being a 2014 third-round pick and a solid prospect in Houston – didn’t have an obvious path to playing time with the Astros. However, the 26-year-old quickly worked his way into New York’s plans, thanks in part to season-opening injuries to infielders Todd Frazier and the still-hurt Jed Lowrie, and hasn’t graced the minors at all in 2019 after spending almost all of his Astros tenure there.
While Davis did hold his own at the lower levels with the Astros, he collected just 181 major league plate appearances from 2017-18 – in which he batted an unimpressive .194/.260/.321. On the other hand, the Mets’ version has amassed 293 PA and slashed a terrific .300/.369/.498 (131 wRC+) with 12 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk percentages (20.1 K, 9.2 BB). Much of the damage has come in the summer months for Davis, who overcame an unproductive May to post an .881 OPS in June and a 1.017 mark in July. His recent output has helped New York to a second-half awakening – after going into the All-Star break at 40-50, the team has shockingly risen to 57-56.
Although his production has benefited from a .347 batting average on balls in play – which is sure to drop considering the slow-moving Davis’ groundball-heavy profile – that’s not to say he has lucked into his success. To the contrary, according to Statcast, which places Davis in the league’s 91st percentile or better in expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average, hard-hit percentage and expected batting average. As impressive as Davis’ .369 wOBA is, his .389 xwOBA is even better and ties for 17th among all qualified hitters, sandwiching him between Juan Soto and teammate/NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso. It helps, of course, that Davis has chased far fewer pitches out of the zone than the average hitter.
Regardless of whether the Mets do the unthinkable and rally to a playoff berth this year, it looks as if they have a legitimate long-term piece in Davis. As someone who has handled both right- and left-handed pitchers, the righty-swinging Davis has the makings of an everyday player. And while he has accrued more appearances in left field (38) than at third (31), it’s possible he’ll take over for Frazier – a pending free agent – at the hot corner next season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
NL East Injury Notes: Frazier, Foltynewicz
Let’s grab an update on a couple of players who might returning to NL East action…
- Todd Frazier has a good chance of making his season debut later this week, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). The Mets third baseman missed the first couple weeks of the 2019 season with a left oblique injury, but he’s on the return trail and could join the team in Philadelphia. J.D. Davis has had his share of moments while playing third in Frazier’s stead, batting .242/.375/.485, including a home run on April 6th – with an exit velocity of 114.6 mph – that was the fourth hardest-hit HR by a Mets player since Statcast started tracking the data in 2015. Both of his home runs this season came in that April 6th contest against the Nationals until he hit his third tonight against the Braves. Given the way Pete Alonso has played at first base, the Mets will face a roster crunch when Frazier does return. Dominic Smith, Luis Guillorme and Davis all have options remaining, making them notably vulnerable.
- Braves righty Mike Foltynewicz will make his final scheduled rehab start this week before likely joining the Braves rotation for his 2019 debut, per The Athletic’s David O’Brien (via Twitter). Folty enjoyed a breakout 4.2 rWAR 2018, going 13-10 with a 2.85 ERA over a career high 31 starts. The stellar results were driven by year-over-year improvements in strikeouts per nine innings (from 8.4 K/9 to 9.9 K/9) and home runs allowed per nine (from 1.2 HR/9 to 0.8 HR/9). Both his fastball and sinker gained a full mph or more from 2017 to 2018, while he also relied more heavily on his slider, which excelled as a wipe out pitch (36.8 Whiff%, 42.4 K%). Sean Newcomb‘s recent demotion opens up a spot in the rotation, as Monday’s day off will allow a four-man rotation until Folty is likely to return.
Mets Notes: McNeil, Free Agents, D’Arnaud, Davis
The latest from the Amazins….
- Teams have shown trade interest in utilityman Jeff McNeil, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required), though Rosenthal is doubtful the Mets would move the 26-year-old. McNeil’s first MLB season saw him hit an eye-popping .329/.381/.471 over 248 plate appearances for New York, numbers that seemingly had him penciled in as the Mets’ second baseman in 2019. After the acquisitions of Robinson Cano and Jed Lowrie, however, McNeil may spend more time in the outfield than the infield next season as the team intends to deploy him as a depth piece all over the diamond. Given his six years of team control and the lengthy injury history of several Mets veterans, it makes sense that New York isn’t looking to deal McNeil, though he would certainly be one of the club’s better trade chips if GM Brodie Van Wagenen wanted to make another bold move.
- The larger focus of Rosenthal’s piece is on Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, as Rosenthal opines that the Mets should be pursuing either player as a way to make a final push as a true contender. The Mets haven’t been considered as prime candidates for either superstar free agent since both players seem out of New York’s price range, though Rosenthal notes that the Mets will recoup a lot of money from insurance on David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes. Earlier today on MLBTR, Steve Adams listed the Mets as a reasonable candidate as one of the “mystery teams” who are reportedly in the hunt for Machado.
- Travis d’Arnaud is another player who could be taking on a multi-position role for the Mets next season, which the catcher is eager to assume. “Wherever the team needs me or wants me to play, I’ll play,” d’Arnaud tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post. More than anything, d’Arnaud just wants to get back on the field in general, after missing almost all of 2018 due to a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow. This was the latest in a long list of injuries for d’Arnaud, which is why the Mets signed Wilson Ramos and relegated d’Arnaud to backup catcher, or perhaps hybrid bench duty as a catcher or corner infielder. There’s also still a chance d’Arnaud could be traded, though he seems to have a clear path to the backup job after Kevin Plawecki was dealt to Cleveland.
- Speaking of roster versatility, J.D. Davis is open to helping the Mets as a pitcher, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo writes. “It’s a set skill that I have — a good arm and a good fastball — I can go out there and compete and throw some strikes and get some outs, that’s for sure,” Davis said. The Mets don’t yet have any plans to work Davis out as a pitcher during Spring Training, DiComo reports, though he notes that Van Wagenen has twice referenced Davis’ ability on the mound since acquiring Davis from the Astros earlier this month. Davis pitched in college and owns a 92-mph fastball, which he showed off in three mop-up duty relief outings for Houston over the last two seasons. For now, however, his primary role with the Mets will be as depth at both corner infield and corner outfield spots.
AL Notes: Astros, Luhnow, Kikuchi, Orioles, Machado
Astros GM Jeff Luhnow spoke to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter links) and other reporters about today’s five-player trade with the Mets, noting that New York “was aggressive” in asking about J.D. Davis. The Astros weren’t originally thinking of moving Davis, but Luhnow explained that “there was enough of a market for him that we decided to go ahead and explore it because there’s no obvious spot for him on our 25-man roster next year, at this point.” The Mets‘ inclusion of catching prospect Scott Manea as part of the return going back to Houston “was a big part of it for us,” Luhnow said, due to the Astros’ lack of catching depth. In terms of future moves, Luhnow also said that the Astros are still considering the starting pitching and bullpen markets.
Here’s more from around the AL…
- Speaking to media (including the Kyodo News) in his return to Japan, Yusei Kikuchi mentioned that the Mariners were the first team to make him a contract offer. It isn’t clear if other teams also made offers after the fact and Seattle eventually altered its offer to win the bidding, or if perhaps the M’s were the only club to issue a concrete offer to the left-hander. The latter scenario seems rather unlikely, given that multiple teams reportedly had interest in Kikuchi during his posting period. Then again, given how impressed Kikuchi and agent Scott Boras were with the Mariners’ detailed plans for managing Kikuchi’s workload and arm health in his transition to Major League Baseball, it isn’t entirely out of the question that Kikuchi decided to jump on the offer, especially considering the money involved (at least $56MM, and worth as much as $106MM) in the deal’s unique salary structure.
- The Orioles have offered their bullpen coach job to minor league pitching coordinator John Wasdin, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Wasdin has been in his current role in the organization for the last two seasons, after spending the previous six years as a minor league pitching coach in the Athletics’ farm system. Wasdin briefly pitched for the O’s in 2001 as part of his 12-year career in the majors. It isn’t yet known if Wasdin will accept the offer, though regardless, Kubatko writes that the Orioles will head into 2019 with an entirely new coaching staff under new manager Brandon Hyde.
- The latest round of Manny Machado speculation had the free agent infielder reportedly visiting Chicago today, attending the Eagles/Bears NFL playoff game as a guest of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf. As per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, however, this rumor wasn’t accurate. In terms of free agency, Machado is already seeing a Chicago vs. Philadelphia (vs. New York) battle play out, as the White Sox, Phillies, and Yankees are the three teams most directly connected to his pursuit, and it’s possible these three clubs could be the finalists for Machado’s services.