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Jake Odorizzi

AL West Notes: Rangers, Lyles, Astros, Díaz, Odorizzi, Javier

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Jordan Lyles won’t get turns as a traditional starter to open the season for the Rangers, and he’s not thrilled about it, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Rangers manager Chris Woodward told the 6’5″ right-hander that he’s likely headed for 50-60 pitch outings, at least to start the season. Lyles surrendered more earned runs than any other pitcher in 2020, finishing with a 7.02 ERA/5.95 FIP in 57 2/3 innings. Outside of a 2-inning outing to start the season, Lyles served as a starter, though he did twice enter the game following an opener. Despite his struggles, Lyles averaged 88 pitches per outing as a starter/follower. The Rangers presumably want to protect Lyles while getting an extended look at some of their younger hurlers like Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. Staying in Texas…

  • Chander Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if Aledmys Díaz might make some sense as a trade candidate for the Astros. The utility man is set to make $3MM this year, and the Astros would love to trim a little off the top of their payroll. Díaz has slashed .265/.337/.470 in 306 plate appearances the past two seasons as one of the first guys off the bench. Robel Garcia and Abraham Toro are competing for the second utility guy off the bench, and it certainly makes some sense to consider a Díaz trade if there’s one to be had. That said, Diaz is the best fit as a backup at shortstop, and Carlos Correa hasn’t exactly been an iron man. The Astros could also try to move Brooks Raley ($2MM), Joe Smith ($4MM) or Martin Maldonado ($3.5MM) as a way to trim the payroll, though the latter isn’t particularly likely.
  • Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, they’re going to need to utilize their pitching depth from the jump. Recently-signed Jake Odorizzi isn’t likely to be ready for opening day, neither is Pedro Baez, currently on the COVID-19 injured list. Cristian Javier is also a bit of a question mark, not having pitched in a game since March 2, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy remain at the top of the rotation, but the final two spots may be up for grabs. If Javier and Odorizzi aren’t ready for opening day, Luis García and Bryan Abreu are back in camp and ready to audition.

Central Notes: Bryant, Odorizzi, Reds, Gose

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Kris Bryant has continued to express openness to a contract extension with the Cubs, but he reiterated today there’s not yet been any discussion between his representatives and the organization (via Patrick Mooney of the Athletic). The 29-year-old isn’t ruling out the possibility of a long-term deal coming together eventually, even though he’s currently on track to reach free agency after the season. “I’m not looking at it as my last year (as a Cub),” Bryant said (via Mooney). “Who knows what year it could be? I could have 10 more years here. Who knows? I could come back as a coach. I could live in Chicago. I don’t know.” Regardless of what happens after 2021, it’s clear Bryant will open the season with the Cubs after an offseason of trade rumors didn’t result in a deal.

Elsewhere in the game’s central divisions:

  • Jake Odorizzi is moving on from the Twins after a three-year run in Minnesota, but the right-hander said during yesterday’s Astros introduction that the Twin Cities “hold a special place” in his heart and left the door open for a return down the road (link via the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Phil Miller). “I loved my time in Minnesota,” said Odorizzi, whose two-year deal with the Astros became official this week. “Maybe there’s a time to circle back after this stint [in Houston] is done.” Odorizzi noted that he originally hoped a new deal would come together, but he saw the writing on the wall when the Twins inked fellow free agent J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM deal earlier in the winter.
  • A few teams have announced their intention to start out with a six-man rotation. That doesn’t seem to be on the table for the Reds, who are going to open the season with a five-man starting staff, manager David Bell said (via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon). Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle are obvious locks, while Bell suggested Wade Miley is likely to get a shot at a rebound season as a starter. That leaves Michael Lorenzen, Tejay Antone, Jeff Hoffman and José De León in a battle for the final job. The pitchers who don’t earn the season-opening rotation spot figure to start off as multi-inning relief options.
  • Reliever Anthony Gose is impressing the Indians as a non-roster invitee, writes Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Continuing to throw in the upper-90’s and now incorporating a slider, Gose has struck out four without issuing a walk through his first three Cactus League innings. The former outfielder has attracted the attention of a few teams since moving to the mound in 2017 but has yet to get back to the big leagues as a pitcher. Continued strike-throwing is the key for Gose, who walked an untenable 21.5% of opposing hitters during his most recent minor league action in 2019.

Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi

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The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.

On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.

The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.

Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted.  With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.

Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand.  While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier.  More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.

Jake OdorizziOdorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years.  It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization.  Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.

Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota.  Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.

This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month).  With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.

MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal.  The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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7:05pm: The Blue Jays, who were reportedly interested in Odorizzi during the offseason, remain in the mix, Heyman tweets. Other teams besides Houston and Toronto are also involved, per Heyman.

1:09pm: The Astros are among the teams “looking at” free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Houston recently lost Framber Valdéz to a broken finger. There’s been no definitive word on how long Valdéz will be out, but Heyman reported yesterday the initial evaluation suggested he’ll require surgery, which could prove to be season-ending.

Odorizzi is the top starter remaining in free agency, so it’s natural the Astros would check in with his representatives. Adding him would undoubtedly help the current roster; as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explored yesterday, Houston’s projected rotation now consists of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Luis García. That’s a talented group but one light on major league track record at the back end. Beyond that quintet, Brandon Bielak and Forrest Whitley look like the top depth options. (Justin Verlander likely won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September).

Teams are often forced to rely on seven or eight starters over the course of a typical season. This year, they’ll be faced with unprecedented challenges managing workloads coming off a shortened campaign. Greinke’s 67 innings in 2020 led the current projected rotation, so it’d be difficult to count on all (or perhaps any) of the group to go 160-plus innings in 2021.

Odorizzi himself is coming off an injury-ruined year. Three injured list stints (for an intercostal strain, a chest contusion, and blisters, respectively) kept him to just 13.2 innings across four starts for the Twins. That diminished workload probably limits Odorizzi’s innings total this year as well, but he’d add a usually-durable, productive starter to the mix. The 30-year-old averaged 165-plus innings per season from 2014-19 with a cumulative 3.88 ERA and solid strikeout (23%) and walk (8.2%) rates. A few of those years were spent with the Rays, where current Astros general manager James Click worked in the Tampa Bay front office.

That all makes for a logical match on paper, but it’s questionable whether the organization is willing to meet his asking price. Odorizzi was reportedly seeking a three-year deal in the $13MM – $15MM range annually earlier this offseason; he apparently remains content to wait out the market rather than move off that price point. That’s not an outlandish ask for a mid-rotation starter, but concerns about the luxury tax could keep the Astros from spending at that level.

Houston’s current $181MM payroll, as projected by Roster Resource, seems more than manageable for an organization that was set to spend over $210MM on players last season before prorating salaries. However, Heyman notes the Astros’ luxury tax ledger, which uses contracts’ average annual values rather than current year salaries, sits about $13MM shy of the first threshold ($210MM). It’s possible Houston could look into a longer-term deal with Odorizzi that lowers the AAV for tax purposes. Even that type of arrangement, though, would likely push the Astros right up to or over the tax barrier, perhaps necessitating other payroll-shedding moves to stay beneath the threshold and leave room for any in-season acquisitions.

It’s arguable the win-now Astros should be willing to pay the marginal taxes in order to take their best shot at a World Series in 2021. That doesn’t seem likely, though. Houston reportedly wasn’t particularly active in the bidding for free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., another obvious roster fit, because of luxury tax concerns. As Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last month, exceeding the threshold would reduce the draft pick compensation Houston could receive for their slate of potential qualifying offer recipients (Carlos Correa and McCullers among them) next winter. Houston management apparently found that a deterrent, particularly with the organization being dealt significant draft penalties in 2020-21 due to the sign-stealing scandal. An Odorizzi signing would likely raise the same concerns.

Twins’ Falvey On Odorizzi: “We Wish Him Well”

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With Jackie Bradley Jr. now headed to the Brewers, right-hander Jake Odorizzi is the clear top free agent left on the board. Oftentimes, when a player’s market drags to this extent, there’s continued speculation about a return to his prior team. There’s been some of that with regard to Odorizzi and the Twins, but president of baseball operations Derek Falvey all but ruled out the possibility in an appearance on MLB Now with Brian Kenney yesterday (video link).

“We look at our team as primarily put together here,” Falvey candidly replied when asked about a reunion with Odorizzi. “We know Jake contributed exceptionally well for us over the last few seasons, and certainly we wish him well. For us, our focus is on the players who are internally in camp at this point. We feel really good about the pitching we have already.”

Odorizzi has spent the past three seasons in Minnesota and had previously expressed interest in extending that stay, but he set out into free agency seeking a lucrative multi-year deal this winter at a time when the Twins have been focused on short-term additions. Minnesota has brokered one-year deals with Nelson Cruz ($13MM), Andrelton Simmons ($10.5MM), J.A. Happ ($8MM), Alex Colome ($6.25MM), Matt Shoemaker ($2MM) and Hansel Robles ($2MM) over the course of the winter. That series of moves has pushed the payroll to about $129MM — a number that could further rise by as much as $10MM as Kenta Maeda reaches his annual incentives for games started and innings pitched.

With Odorizzi seemingly out of the picture, the Twins will field a rotation of Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker. Randy Dobnak is on hand as a sixth starter or possible long man, and other in-house options to start games include lefties Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. Prospects Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran could both be ready for a look later in the 2021 season, and the Twins have some non-roster arms with big league experience in camp as well (e.g. Andrew Albers, Glenn Sparkman).

As for Odorizzi, the uncertain outlook on his market continues. Earlier this week, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman suggested the right-hander is content to wait for the right offer to arise rather than to substantially drop his asking price. It’s possible that injuries in camp will open some opportunities. The Astros are suddenly facing a very lengthy absence for Framber Valdez, for instance, and other clubs figure to encounter similar setbacks in their rotation as the spring schedule ramps up.

Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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While the 2021 season is slated to begin just a month from now, free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi is “thought” to be willing to wait further into Spring Training for the right offer rather than drop his asking price now, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Odorizzi has reportedly been seeking a three-year deal that will pay him in the $13-15MM range annually.

As Heyman notes, there’s some precedent for this type of approach working out for the pitcher. Kyle Lohse netted a three-year, $33MM deal with the Brewers late in Spring Training 2013, and Alex Cobb landed a four-year deal worth $57MM with the Orioles late in Spring Training 2018. Jake Arrieta also agreed to a three-year deal midway through Spring Training back in 2018, landing a $75MM guarantee with the Phillies.

Of course, that Lohse deal is now eight years old, and Cobb’s contract was broadly considered to be a surprise. It’s tough to base expectations on that trio of solid deals, as we’ve seen at least as many pitchers have to alter their expectations and take a one-year pact in recent years: Ervin Santana with the Braves, Lance Lynn with the Twins and Dallas Keuchel’s  midseason deal with the Braves are among the examples.

None of that is to say that Odorizzi’s quest for a multi-year deal is unreasonable. His reported asking price falls roughly in line with what we expected him to sign back at the beginning of the offseason, and he’s a more desirable free agent than either Lohse or Cobb was at the time of those late multi-year deals referenced by Heyman. Odorizzi stood out as one of the best free-agent starters on the 2020-21 market — arguably the second-best behind Trevor Bauer (particularly once Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers).

It’s been a very tough winter for the non-Bauer tier of free-agent starters, however. Only three have landed multi-year pacts: a two-year, $18MM deal for Mike Minor with the Royals; a three-year, $23MM deal for Taijuan Walker with the Mets (announced as a two-year deal with a player option); and a two-year, $4.75MM deal for KBO returnee Chris Flexen with the Mariners. Bauer, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber and Drew Smyly are the only four starters to receive annual values exceeding $10MM, and of that group, only Bauer did so on a multi-year deal.

Major League teams have been reluctant to spend for much of the winter. Some clubs that have spent money (Twins, Red Sox, Nationals) have been primarily willing to do so on one-year deals.

Circumstances could certainly change, and that could be what Odorizzi and his representatives are hoping for at this point. An untimely injury on a contending club’s pitching staff could create a need and jumpstart his market, and it’s possible that as teams get better ideas about the number of fans they’ll be able to welcome to the park in 2021, owners could green-light some late expenditures that weren’t previously expected.

Odorizzi was limited to just 13 2/3 innings last season, which has surely hindered his market, although his camp can rightly point to the fact that none of those health issues were arm-related. He missed the first few weeks of the season with an intercostal (ribcage) strain and quickly went back on the IL when he was struck in the chest by a comeback liner upon his return. He later dealt with a blister that forced him back on the shelf.

Odorizzi is by no means an ace, but prior to last year’s slate of rather fluky injuries, he was a durable mid-rotation cog. He averaged better than 30 starts per season from 2014-19 and worked to a combined 3.88 ERA (4.08 FIP, 4.19 SIERA) with above-average strikeout and walk rates (23 percent and 8.2 percent, respectively) through more than 1000 innings. In a vacuum, he’d be an improvement for nearly any starting staff in the game, but the disconnect between his asking price and the market’s offerings apparently continues to linger.

Phillies Have “Checked In” On Jake Odorizzi

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The Phillies are among the clubs to have checked in recently on free-agent righty Jake Odorizzi’s asking price, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. He adds that the Angels have maintained some level of interest in the right-hander throughout free agency as well. There’s still no indication that Odorizzi is in serious talks with any individual team at this point.

It’s been a slow winter for Odorizzi, who was reported several weeks ago to be seeking a three-year pact worth around $15MM per year. A contract in that range would put the Phillies well north of the $210MM luxury tax threshold, as they’re currently about $8.5MM shy of that mark.

Given that proximity, it’s tough to see any match between the two sides without the Phillies exceeding the tax. That said, the penalty for surpassing the tax in 2021 wouldn’t be all that substantial for the Phillies — a 20 percent tax on their first $20MM worth of overages — and they’d quite likely dip back below the tax line in 2022 (assuming the system remains in place after another wave of collective bargaining talks). The Phillies will see Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera and several others come off the books next year; their 2022 tax obligations are currently in the $133MM range.

As for the fit with Odorizzi specifically, there’s little denying that he’d be an upgrade in the middle of the Philadelphia staff. Odorizzi’s 2020 season was more or less wiped out by a series of non-arm injuries — an intercostal strain, a line-drive to the chest and a blister on his pitching hand — but his 2019 season was quite strong. He started 30 games and tallied 159 innings with the Twins, pitching to a 3.51 ERA with a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate against a strong 8.1 percent walk rate. That showing prompted the Twins to make a $17.8MM qualifying offer, which Odorizzi accepted over some multi-year interest at lower annual rates.

Aside from last year’s series of injuries, Odorizzi has been among the game’s most durable starters. From 2014-19, he averaged better than 30 starts and 165 innings per season, logging a combined 3.88 ERA and 4.20 SIERA with strikeout and walk rates that were a bit better than league average.

The Phillies, meanwhile, will open the year relying on a strong one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, with a solid Zach Eflin holding down the third spot on the staff. After that, top prospect Spencer Howard, the talented-but-inconsistent Vince Velasquez, and offseason signees Chase Anderson and Matt Moore will be the leading candidates to round things out. Howard struggled in his MLB debut last year but is still highly regarded. However, he also skipped Triple-A entirely and still has only six Double-A starts to his name, so the organization may feel he needs some more development time.

As for the Halos, they’re about $17MM shy of the luxury threshold, so there’s certainly room to add Odorizzi without crossing that threshold if that’s ownership’s goal. The Angels actually have a fairly deep mix of rotation options at this point, with Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana, Griffin Canning, Alex Cobb and Shohei Ohtani all likely to factor in early.

The Angels have been decimated by injuries in recent years, however, and that group of rotation options has some question marks within its ranks. Odorizzi certainly isn’t the ace for which Angels fans have clamored for the past few seasons, but he’d quickly become one of their top starting options were the two sides to strike a pact.

At this point, there’s no clear favorite for where Odorizzi will land. He has, at times, been connected to the Twins, Blue Jays, Giants and Red Sox (in addition to the two clubs listed here), but it’s a tough winter to be a mid-rotation starter on the market. Only four starting pitchers have agreed to multi-year deals: Trevor Bauer (Dodgers), Taijuan Walker (Mets), Mike Minor (Royals) and Chris Flexen (Mariners). Bauer was in his own class, of course, while Flexen is something of a unique case himself after a breakout showing in the KBO.

Mets Showing Interest In Tajiuan Walker

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The Mets have circled back around to free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker and engaged his camp in “extensive” discussions, SNY’s Andy Martino reports. Walker is the club’s top target over righty Jake Odorizzi at the moment, per the report. Metsmerized’s Michael Mayer connected the two sides this week as well, adding that the righty has been looking for a multi-year deal worth $10MM+ annually.

Still just 28 years old, Walker is one of the youngest free agents on the market but has yet to find a multi-year offer to his liking. The former top prospect missed the vast majority of the 2018-19 seasons due to injuries — most notably Tommy John surgery — but returned to his original organization, the Mariners, on a one-year deal last offseason. Walker tossed 27 solid frames for the Mariners before being traded to the Blue Jays and continuing to throw well. On the whole, he turned in 53 1/3 innings with an appealing 2.70 ERA.

That said, the numbers beyond his ERA don’t look quite as rosy. Walker benefited from a .243 average on balls in play and a slightly elevated 78.5 percent strand rate. His 22.2 percent strikeout rate was a it worse than league average, as was his 39.1 percent ground-ball rate. The righty’s 93.5 mph average heater was down from its 95.1 mph peak, and his swinging-strike rate was among the lowest in the league (13th percentile, per Statcast). Fielding-independent marks like SIERA (4.60) and Statcast’s xERA (4.87) aren’t as bullish on Walker as his bottom-line ERA.

Coupled with some durability concerns stemming from his 2018-19 absence, it’s understandable that clubs might not be sold on giving Walker a lucrative multi-year deal based on 11 starts (during which he averaged fewer than five frames per outing). To Walker’s credit, he was at one point one of the game’s premier pitching prospects and is younger than virtually all of his peers on the open market, thus arguably giving him more upside than said peers.

The Mets wouldn’t need Walker to be much more than a fourth starter for them, though, and we’ve seen fourth starters get paid eight-figure salaries on multi-year deals frequently in the past. New York currently has a solid but top-heavy rotation mix at present, with two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom again set to lead the charge. He’ll be followed by Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman, with former first-rounder David Peterson currently in line for the fourth starter’s gig after an impressive rookie campaign.

Beyond that quartet, the Mets have trade acquisitions Joey Lucchesi, Jordan Yamamoto and Sean Reid-Foley on the 40-man roster, as well as offseason signee Sam McWilliams. Their depth is unequivocally better than in 2020 — the Mets also have Mike Montgomery and Jerad Eickhoff in camp on non-roster deals — but there’s still some uncertainty after the top three names. Walker comes with his own question marks, but he’s also had more success at the MLB level than any of the options the Mets currently have for the back of the rotation. In 581 2/3 innings dating back to 2013, Walker has a 3.84 ERA.

From a financial vantage point, adding Walker surely wouldn’t put the Mets in any danger of surpassing the luxury threshold. They’re currently at $187.7MM in luxury obligations at the moment, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, so any deal with Walker would likely leave them eight figures of breathing room with regard to the tax barrier.

Pitching Notes: Odorizzi, Paxton, Mets, Red Sox, Tigers

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Jake Odorizzi is the top name left from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings, and it’s still not clear which (if any) team will meet the right-hander’s reported multi-year asking price. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes in his latest Q&A with readers that the Cardinals’ interest in Odorizzi is legitimate but not aggressive. Goold likens the Cards’ interest to their interest in Kyle Lohse more than a decade ago, when Lohse signed a one-year deal during Spring Training 2008 at a much lower rate than he’d initially sought in free agency. Of course, other teams would surely jump into the mix were Odorizzi to eventually settle for a one-year pact, and there’s no indication yet he plans to do so.

  • James Paxton is headed back to the Mariners on a one-year deal worth $8.5MM, but he drew interest from numerous other clubs before landing that deal. The Mets offered Paxton $6MM in guarantees, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times writes that the M’s at one point expected the lefty to be out of their price range because of how impressive he looked during an offseason showcase. However, Divish adds that Paxton also had a desire to return to a Seattle setting where he’d previously felt comfortable and had success.
  • The Red Sox were among the teams in attendance for free-agent righty Chaz Roe’s bullpen session over the weekend, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The 34-year-old reliever spent the previous three-plus seasons in Tampa Bay and is familiar with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, who used to be a Rays executive. Roe threw only 9 1/3 innings in 2020, but he was overall a solid bullpen option as a member of the Rays, with whom he pitched to a 3.54 ERA/3.73 SIERA in 119 1/3 frames.
  • The Tigers added Jose Urena to their rotation mix earlier in the offseason, but they might not be done yet. “We’re definitely looking for more pitching as we speak. I think at least one more starter would be ideal,” general manager Al Avila said Tuesday (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com).The right-handed Urena was mostly a starter as a Marlin from 2015-20, but he could wind up in a bullpen role with the Tigers, Avila noted. For now, Urena’s a candidate to join Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull and Michael Fulmer in Detroit’s starting staff. Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander are also among in-house possibilities to rack up starts this year.

Pitcher Notes: Mets, Paxton, Robertson, Sanchez

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The Mets made a run at James Paxton, but they were outbid by the Mariners, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman suggests the Mets will now turn their attention to Taijuan Walker or Jake Odorizzi. Frankly, it seems unlikely they would find the right price point on Odorizzi coming off a very similar season to Paxton (but with a longer track record of good health). Besides, the list of players the Mets “were in on” includes Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, George Springer and others, notes Andy Martino of the SNY Network (via Twitter). That’s not a knock on the Mets, of course, who have been one of the more active teams this winter. Let’s check in some other free agent pitchers…

  • Free agent reliever David Robertson threw for a handful of teams yesterday, but the price on his long-term future remains unclear. His old pals from New York were in attendance, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter), but the Yankees are far from the only team who might have interest. Despite the dumb-luck turn of his Philly tenure, Robertson is an intriguing buy-low candidate. Injuries limited the right-hander to seven appearances over the past two seasons, but in the ten years prior, Robertson should be proud of a 2.67 ERA/2.77 FIP while striking out an excellent-for-the-era 32.6 percent of hitters and walking a near-average 9.5 percent of challengers. The Yankees probably remember better than most just how good Robertson was in his prime. Approaching his age-36 season, Robertson is decidedly on the downslope of his career – but he has a long way to fall before losing his utility.
  • Aaron Sanchez also headed back to the hill to throw for scouts on Saturday, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). The Mets were among those present, as they continue to keep their hand in the starting pitching market. Sanchez is on record as wanting a spot in the rotation, which could limit his potential landing spots. It now seems like ages ago that Sanchez led the American League with a 3.00 ERA over 30 starts for the Blue Jays in 2016. Since that All-Star campaign, Sanchez has compiled a 5.29 ERA/5.12 FIP across 55 starts totaling 272 1/3 innings with a worm-killing 47.8 percent groundball rate. An 18.1 percent strikeout rate and 11.7 percent walk rate are less than inspiring figures, however.
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