Brian Cashman On Yankees’ Dominguez/Verdugo Decision
Since a blistering start to the season, highlighted by a 21-7 showing in May, the Yankees have played at a sub-.500 pace, recording a 40-41 record dating back to the beginning of June. They’re 1-3 since the calendar flipped to September and have dropped seven of their past 11 games. A lineup anchored by Aaron Judge and Juan Soto has remained among the more productive units in the game, but the Yankees’ other outfield spot has been a weak point in the lineup for much of the season. Top prospect Jasson Dominguez is healthy and awaiting a big league opportunity as he rips through Triple-A pitching, but the Yankees have thus far stuck with struggling veteran Alex Verdugo — much to the chagrin of the fan base.
General manager Brian Cashman addressed the subject today, telling reporters that if Dominguez were to be called up to the majors, he’d need regular at-bats the team does not currently believe to be available (link via the New York Post’s Greg Joyce). Cashman suggested that Dominguez is “doing everything he needs to” in Triple-A at the moment but also pointed to recent improvement in Verdugo’s results.
“The evaluations that we’re having with our field staff and player development staff, front office staff, is just what is going to give us the best chance to win,” said Cashman. “As of right now, we’re staying pat with what we’ve got.”
It’s a frankly vexing stance for the GM to take, given the rate at which Verdugo has produced (or rather failed to do so) for the bulk of the season. Coming over in an offseason trade with the archrival Red Sox, Verdugo got out to a nice start in his Yankees tenure, hitting .267/.358/.446 through the end of April. Had he continued at or close to that pace, it’d be understandable and plenty defensible to say that the veteran Verdugo can’t simply be pushed aside. That hasn’t been the case. Dating back to May 1, Verdugo has posted an anemic .227/.276/.337 batting line. That’s 28% worse than league-average, by measure of wRC+ (72).
For much of that time, the Yankees didn’t have the luxury of even making a tough decision. Dominguez spent the early portion of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery performed last September. He was able to begin a rehab assignment in May and was optioned in June when that rehab window ended. At that point, Verdugo’s struggles hadn’t persisted much longer than a month. Judge and Soto were healthy and producing. There wasn’t a clear-cut path to an everyday role. Dominguez wound up suffering a fairly severe oblique strain in Triple-A — one that cost him more than six weeks of action.
Dominguez returned to action in late July, and since then has received all of one game in the big leagues — a quick look as the 27th man in this year’s Little League Classic, after which he was returned to Triple-A. Calls for the Yankees to swap out the veteran Verdugo have since mounted, and Dominguez’s torrid play with the Yankees’ top affiliate isn’t going to quell them anytime soon.
In 41 Triple-A games this season, Dominguez is sporting a hefty .313/.371/.497 batting line — 25% better than average in the Triple-A International League. After striking out in about a quarter of his minor league plate appearances last year, he’s cut that rate to 18.5% in Triple-A this season. Dominguez has been on a particularly potent heater over his past 20 games, slashing .375/.438/.613 with five home runs. Verdugo has turned in a .225/.260/.296 slash in that same time.
There’s no real service time gamesmanship at play here. Dominguez wouldn’t reach a full year of service time in 2024 even if he were called to the majors today. He’d also retain his rookie eligibility into the 2025 season as long as he spent fewer than 34 days on the active roster and accumulated fewer than 95 at-bats between now and the end of the regular season. However, as J.J. Cooper and Matt Eddy of Baseball America highlighted recently, Dominguez wouldn’t even be eligible to net the Yankees a draft pick under the CBA’s prospect promotion incentives, as one of the requirements for the PPI eligibility is having fewer than 60 days of MLB service. Dominguez already surpassed that total while on the major league injured list due to the aforementioned Tommy John surgery.
The Post’s Jon Heyman reported last night that there was a “spirited” debate among Yankees decision-makers on whether to call Dominguez to the majors this month and swap him into the lineup for Verdugo. The decision to keep Dominguez in the minors is hardly unanimous among the team’s decision-makers, per the report, with several Yankees execs strongly advocating for Dominguez’s promotion. However, both Cashman and manager Aaron Boone have faith in Verdugo’s abilities, Heyman writes.
On the one hand, the Yankees are a lock to reach the postseason whether they’re playing Verdugo or Dominguez every day. At 80-60, they’re tied with the Guardians for the fifth-best record in MLB. On the other, New York’s recent slide has also dropped them a half-game behind the Orioles for the division lead.
It’s debatable whether Dominguez would’ve shifted the Yankees’ fortune in any of their recent losses — he alone isn’t likely to have flipped the script in a four-run loss to Texas or a seven-run loss to St. Louis, for instance — but there’s no denying that the potential difference between Dominguez and Verdugo over the final three-plus weeks could prove pivotal in closing that half-game gap in the standings. That could be the difference between a Wild Card berth or a division-winning, first-round bye for the Yankees.
Riley Greene, Jasson Dominguez Added As 27th Men For Little League Classic
The Yankees and Tigers square off in Williamsport tonight for the Little League Classic, and due to the special nature of the game, both clubs are allowed to add a 27th player to their active rosters. The two teams have each addressed this extra roster spot in a particularly noteworthy way, as the Yankees called up star prospect Jasson Dominguez from Triple-A and the Tigers activated outfielder Riley Greene from the 10-day injured list.
While Dominguez is in tonight’s starting lineup, it looks like it’ll just be a cup of coffee in the majors for the 21-year-old, as Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that Dominguez will be returned to Triple-A after the game. Obviously plans could change in the event of an injury, but for now, it looks like the Yankees are just utilizing the right-hitting Dominguez to spell lefty-swinging Alex Verdugo in left field since southpaw Tarik Skubal is starting for Detroit.
Tonight will mark Dominguez’s first MLB game since last September, when he hit .258/.303/.677 with four homers in his first 33 plate appearances in the big leagues. However, just as “the Martian” appeared to be living up to the hype, he had to undergo Tommy John surgery, which kept him on the shelf until he returned for a rehab assignment in single-A ball in mid-May. Dominguez quickly moved back up the ladder to Triple-A but then suffered an oblique strain in June that kept him out of action for another six weeks.
Dominguez is hitting .298/.365/.477 with seven homers over his 167 combined PA at three levels of the Yankees’ farm system this season, so while he isn’t dominating minor league pitching, his numbers are still quite solid (especially for a player battling so many injuries). Under normal circumstances, he would likely be in the majors already if it wasn’t for the crowded nature of New York’s outfield picture. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Verdugo are the starting outfield trio, and Giancarlo Stanton has the DH spot on lockdown, leaving little room for Dominguez to find regular playing time.
GM Brian Cashman stated last week that “There’s currently no lane for us to bring him [up]. It’s nice to know he’s there. He’s just knocking rust off and waiting for his opportunity if it comes.” Tonight’s one-game cameo doesn’t really counter Cashman’s statement, as the team would surely prefer to see Dominguez continue his development with regular reps in Triple-A rather than only sporadic playing time in New York. It is worth noting that Verdugo has been in a deep slump for over three months now, so as we continue down the stretch to the postseason, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Dominguez promoted to take the lion’s share of work in left field.
Greene last played on July 25, as a right hamstring strain has kept the outfielder sidelined for the better part of a month. The Tigers don’t need to make a corresponding roster move today because of the 27th man rule, but some kind of roster adjustment will need to be made before Detroit’s next game, on Tuesday against the Cubs.
Now in his third Major League season, Greene has continued to take strides as a budding star for the Tigers, hitting .264/.357/.485 with 17 home runs over 427 PA. Between this production at the plate and some excellent glovework as Detroit’s primary left fielder, Greene has already generated 2.8 fWAR, and his success was acknowledged with his first All-Star nod. While the Tigers haven’t yet turned the corner in their rebuild process, Greene certainly looks like a cornerstone player within the club’s future plans.
Jasson Domínguez Expected To Miss About Eight Weeks
Yankees outfielder Jasson Domínguez is going to miss a lot time with an oblique strain. SNY relayed video on X of manager Aaron Boone discussing the issue, with the skipper saying Domínguez will miss “up to eight weeks” before he can play in games because the strain is “pretty significant.”
It’s yet another unfortunate setback for Domínguez, who arrived in the big leagues with such flair last year. With the Yankees playing out a lost season in 2023, the prospect was brought up as a September call-up, then went on to hit four home runs in his first eight games.
Unfortunately, he then required Tommy John surgery, which ended that exciting debut and put him on track for a challenging 2024. He began the season on the injured list while rehabbing from that surgery and was only reinstated last week. Since the Yankees have a solid big league outfield consisting of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Alex Verdugo, with Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter slot and Trent Grisham on the bench, Domínguez was optioned to get regular at-bats in Triple-A.
But this past weekend, just a few days after being reinstated from the IL, he was placed on the minor league IL with some side tightness. Now it seems he’s slated for another lengthy injury layoff, with the eight-week timeline set to take him into the middle of August.
It’s a rough blow for the Yankees on a number of fronts. In the short term, the big league outfield is in good shape, as mentioned. But if any of their major league outfielders should suffer an injury, this will leave their outfield depth thin. Everson Pereira, another of the club’s outfield prospects, recently underwent UCL surgery and is out for the year. With Domínguez now out as well, the Yankees don’t have an outfielder on the 40-man roster who could be recalled to cover for someone else’s absence.
In the longer term, it’s obviously less than ideal for a top prospect to lose almost an entire season of development like this. Both Verdugo and Soto are slated for free agency after this season while Grisham will be a non-tender candidate, giving the club little certainty in the outfield going forward apart from Judge. They obviously hope to re-sign Soto but that’s no guarantee and they will need to replace Verdugo and likely Grisham even if they can lure Soto back.
Ideally, Domínguez would be getting regular playing time and convincing the Yankees that he can be a part of their 2025 club, but that will have to be on pause for now. He should still have a few weeks of playing time at the end of the season if things progress as planned from here, but it’s more of the waiting game for Domínguez now.
Yankees Place Jasson Dominguez On Triple-A Injured List
The Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders placed Jasson Dominguez on the seven-day injured list today, after the outfield prospect made an early exit from Saturday’s game. Yankees manager Aaron Boone told the New York Post’s Gary Phillips and other reporters that Dominguez is dealing with a left side injury and is still undergoing more testing to determine the extent of the problem.
Since Dominguez is not far removed from Tommy John surgery rehab, it makes sense that the Yankees would immediately take the precaution of putting Dominguez on the IL, even if tests don’t reveal a more severe issue like an oblique strain. The outfielder would’ve likely sat out at least a few games anyway, plus the RailRaiders have an off-day on Monday so Dominguez might miss just six games if all goes well.
However, an oblique strain could lead to another extended stay on the injured list for “the Martian,” given how oblique problems can linger for weeks or even months. The hope is that Dominguez can avoid such a setback, given how the TJ surgery already provided one early roadblock after his tantalizing Major League debut last season.
Heralded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Dominguez added to the hype by hitting .258/.303/.677 with four home runs in his first 33 plate appearances before suffering a torn UCL. He was officially reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned to Triple-A earlier this week, though he had already banked quite a bit of minor league playing time during his rehab assignments. Dominguez has an outstanding .356/.404/.609 slash line in 94 combined PA at the Single-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels in 2024, so there is little doubt that the 21-year-old is ready for the majors.
If Dominguez is able to return in relatively short order, the injury might not throw off whatever plan the Yankees had in place for his next promotion. The first-place Yankees have the luxury of not really needing Dominguez at the moment, with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Alex Verdugo all excelling in the everyday outfield, and Giancarlo Stanton having a resurgent season as the regular DH. Dominguez would theoretically be an upgrade over backup outfielder Trent Grisham, though New York prefers to have Dominguez playing every day in the minors than only getting sparing playing time as a bench player.
Yankees Reinstate, Option Jasson Domínguez
The Yankees announced that outfielder Jasson Domínguez has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. To open a 40-man roster spot, infielder Jon Berti was transferred to the 60-day injured list.
Domínguez, now 21, has long been one of the higher-ranked prospects in the Yankee system. He arrived on the major league scene with a splash late last year, hitting four home runs in his first eight contests as a September call-up. Unfortunately, he was then diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow and had to undergo Tommy John surgery.
That procedure generally has a lesser return timetable for position players as opposed to pitchers, with the Yankees providing an estimate of nine to ten months when announcing the surgery. He began this year on the injured list and has began a rehab assignment in the middle of May, eight months after going under the knife.
Domínguez has been hitting well on his rehab, with a line of .368/.415/.658 in his 20 games, but it he’ll have to stay in Triple-A due to a crowded outfield picture in the Bronx. The Yanks have mostly used an alignment of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo on the grass this year, with Giancarlo Stanton the regular in the designated hitter slot and Trent Grisham providing depth from the bench.
All of those players are hitting well this year except for Grisham, but the Yanks don’t want their prized prospect to come up to the big leagues just to sit on the bench in a depth role. He’ll continue getting regular action for the RailRiders after his long layoff but will be a candidate to rejoin the major league club if anyone in that outfield mix needs a stint on the injured list. Soto has been dealing with some elbow inflammation of late but returned after a brief layoff.
From a service time perspective, it’s likely to have an impact on Domínguez’s future. He was able to get 31 days of service time during his call-up last year and would have been able to get to 1.031 this year if he were on the injured list or with the big league club all season long. If he stays an optional assignment for a number of weeks, he will fall short of that one-year mark here in 2024. If that comes to pass, the earliest he could qualify for free agency would be after 2030. If he is called up early enough to get to that one-year line, then free agency after 2029 would still be a possibility.
As for Berti, 34, he was acquired on the cusp of Opening Day as the Yankees were looking for some extra infield help while both DJ LeMahieu and Oswald Peraza were injured. Unfortunately, Berti himself has been injured for much of the year at this point. He missed the latter half of April due to a left groin strain, returning in early May. But a left calf strain sent him back to the IL on May 25.
Berti was told that he could miss six to eight weeks, per Greg Joyce of the New York Post on X, so the Yanks have decided to use his roster spot for this move. He now won’t be eligible for activation until late July.
Jasson Dominguez Begins Rehab Assignment
Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez began a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday, per a team announcement. That effectively presses the start button on a 20-day rehab window before he must either be optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre or reinstated to the MLB roster. He’s starting out in Class-A Tampa, though he’ll very likely move up the ladder over the next couple weeks.
Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, so it’s fairly natural that Yankees skipper Aaron Boone indicated over the weekend that the 21-year-old will be limited to DH work in the early stages of rehab. This will be the first game action for Dominguez since early September, when he burst onto the big league scene with a promising .258/.303/.677 batting line in 33 plate appearances. Dominguez homered off notable big leaguers like Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier, ultimately popping four round-trippers in his brief debut before being diagnosed with a ligament tear in his elbow.
Prior to that debut, Dominguez had split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, recording 507 plate appearances at the former level and 37 at the latter. He batted a combined .265/.377/.425 despite being just 20 years old. He was about four years younger than his average opponent in Double-A and more than six years younger than the average Triple-A player.
Had Dominguez been healthy, the Yankees’ offseason could well have looked different. They’d still quite likely have made an aggressive push to land Juan Soto from the Padres, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alex Verdugo would’ve still been a prominent trade target with both Dominguez and Aaron Judge projected to be healthy. It seems likely that would not have been the case.
Now, with Verdugo, Soto and Judge all hitting well and Giancarlo Stanton still providing thump from the DH spot (despite a .283 OBP), it’s not as clear how Dominguez might fit onto the roster. He’d certainly be expected to outproduce the surprisingly anemic .069/.270/.172 line that Trent Grisham has mustered thus far, but that’s come in a sample of only 38 plate appearances. There’s likely some merit to the idea that a longtime starter like Grisham has struggled mightily with the move to such a limited role, but the minimal playing time he’s received is the primary reason why Dominguez likely wouldn’t be considered for such a role.
Even if the Yankees felt Dominguez could outperform that pace (which they surely do), putting a touted 21-year-old in a position to get seven or eight plate appearances per week would be a poor move for his development. Whenever Dominguez is deemed healthy enough to be reinstated from the injured list, the Yankees presumably want him to be ticketed for regular at-bats. The current construction of the big league roster doesn’t look ideal for that setup, though all it would take would be one injury to Verdugo, Judge, Soto or Stanton to open up some more substantial playing time.
Of the current outfielders, only Verdugo seems even remotely plausible as a trade candidate, but he’s produced a respectable .243/.329/.397 batting line (111 wRC+) while drawing more walks (11.4%) than strikeouts (10.8%). There’d be ample risk (to put it mildly) in moving a steady veteran enjoying that type of performance to free up playing time for a 21-year-old with eight games of big league experience, regardless of his prospect status. There’s been some speculation about a potential Verdugo trade among fans and pundits alike, but such a scenario seems decidedly unlikely.
Barring an injury in the big league outfield, an eventual minor league assignment for Dominguez feels almost inevitable. He’s still only played in 17 total games above the Double-A level. But with Verdugo and Soto both set to become free agents at season’s end and Grisham playing his way into a non-tender candidate, there’s still a clear path to a prominent role for Dominguez in the long-term — it just might not happen this season.
DJ LeMahieu will follow Dominguez in beginning a minor league rehab stint later this week, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. It’s the second time he’ll start a rehab assignment as he returns from a season-opening injured list stay. LeMahieu joined Double-A Somerset on April 23 but was removed in the first inning after experiencing renewed soreness in his right foot. The veteran infielder was diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his foot at the end of Spring Training.
Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti have split the third base work in LeMahieu’s absence. Cabrera started the season well before a recent slump dropped his batting line to .252/.295/.390 in 132 plate appearances. The speedster Berti is hitting .263 without an extra-base hit and only two walks in 41 trips.
Yankees Notes: Cole, Dominguez, LeMahieu
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) about his rehab from right elbow inflammation, which has kept him from making his 2024 debut to this point. Cole indicated to reporters that he threw a 29-pitch bullpen session prior to the club’s game against the Rays this afternoon.
“The fastball profiles were good, and the location was good,” Cole said of the session. He added that his velocity, which averaged 89 mph, was “where we wanted it” at this point in his rehab.
In terms of next steps, Hoch indicates that Cole is scheduled for another session on the mound later this week but that, according to Cole, he does not yet have a set date for facing live hitters. Even so, Cole emphasized that he’s made “good progress” since he first resumed throwing off a mound at the beginning of the month, when reporting suggested that the veteran could be eying the middle of June for his return to the big leagues.
As a six-time All Star the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Cole’s return to the Yankees rotation would obviously provide a massive boost for the club. With that being said, New York’s starting staff has handled itself well in the absence of its ace. Yankees starters rank seventh in the majors with a 3.36 ERA this season, thanks in part to strong performances from youngsters Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt.
Cole isn’t the only key player for the Yankees whose rehab is progressing, as Hoch also notes that manager Aaron Boone told reporters this afternoon that young center fielder Jasson Dominguez is set to begin a rehab assignment at Single-A on May 14. Dominguez, who underwent Tommy John surgery back in September, is set to spend the first two weeks of his rehab as a pure designated hitter before returning to work in the outfield. Boone told reporters (including Hoch) that Dominguez’s recovery has been “smooth” with “very few hiccups” since he went under the knife.
A longtime consensus top-50 prospect in the sport, Dominguez made his debut last season to plenty of fanfare and slashed .258/.303/.677 with four home runs in just eight games before having his season cut short by surgery. The 21-year-old seems sure to impact the Yankees in some capacity this year once healthy, though with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge locked into everyday outfield roles and both Alex Verdugo and Giancarlo Stanton hitting well to this point in the season, the club’s top prospect could have a hard time breaking into the lineup on a regular basis.
Also making progress toward a return is veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu, who fouled a ball off his foot during Spring Training and has been sidelined by a bone bruise ever since. LeMahieu began a rehab assignment back in late April as he seemingly neared a return to action but was almost immediately sidelined by right foot soreness and returned from the assignment. The veteran has worked back up to the point of facing live pitching in the weeks since then, with Boone telling reporters that live batting practice against rehabbing righty JT Brubaker “went well” for the veteran.
There still appears to be no clear timeline for the veteran’s return to action, but the fact that he’s once again participating in field work and hitting against live arms is a positive sign for the club nonetheless. It’s been difficult for the Yankees to replace LeMahieu’s production in the lineup this season even has he’s posted roughly league average numbers in recent years. New York has relied on Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at the hot corner in the veteran’s absence, but Berti has slashed just .300/.344/.300 in ten games while Cabrera has fallen back to Earth after a hot start with a paltry .212/.257/.273 line in his past 20 games.
Yankees Sign Lou Trivino To Major League Deal
The Yankees announced they’ve brought back right-hander Lou Trivino on a one-year deal with a club option for 2025. Outfielder Jasson Domínguez was placed on the 60-day injured list in a corresponding move. Trivino, a client of Pro Edge Sports Management, is guaranteed $1.5MM for the upcoming season. The club option is valued at $5MM. The deal also contains various escalators and performance bonuses.
His 2024 salary reportedly increases by $100K for every fifth appearance between 15 and 35 games, potentially reaching $2MM. Hitting those same thresholds would also escalate the value of next year’s club option by $200K, pushing the option value to $6MM if Trivino pitches in 35 games this year. If the Yankees exercise the option, Trivino could earn another $400K in 2025 based on games finished that season.
Trivino, 32, was acquired by the Yankees at the 2022 deadline in the same deal that brought Frankie Montas to the Bronx. He was excellent in pinstripes, posting a 1.66 earned run average over 25 appearances after that trade. His 10.8% walk rate in that time was a tad high but his 23.7% strikeout rate was solid and his 51.7% ground ball rate very strong.
The Yanks kept him around for 2023 by agreeing to a $4.1MM salary, avoiding arbitration. Unfortunately, it would prove to be a lost season for the righty. He was diagnosed with an elbow sprain during Spring Training and began the year on the injured list, ultimately requiring Tommy John surgery in May.
The Yanks could have retained him via arbitration again for 2024, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting another $4.1MM salary after he missed the entire 2023 campaign. The Yankees non-tendered him instead, sending him out to free agency. They’ll circle back at a lower cost and tack on the option to potentially keep him in the fold for 2025.
Domínguez is going to be out until the summer due to his Tommy John rehab. Trivino himself could move to the 60-day IL if he is on the 40-man. Given that Tommy John rehab generally takes 14 months or longer, he likely won’t be able to rejoin the club until the summer himself. But once healthy, he could provide a nice boost to the relief mix. The club has an affinity for ground ball pitchers and he would certainly qualify. In his 285 career appearances, Trivino has a 3.86 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 10.6% walk rate and 47.4% ground ball rate.
The New York Post’s Greg Joyce first noted that Trivino was in the Yankee clubhouse. Andy Martino of SNY confirmed the sides had reached an agreement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the $1.5MM guarantee, the $5MM option value, and the various incentives/escalators.
Yankees, Padres Reportedly Far Apart In Juan Soto Trade Talks
The Yankees are known to have interest in Padres outfielder Juan Soto but it doesn’t seem as though a trade is close to coming to fruition. Per reports from Ken Rosenthal, Dennis Lin and Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Andy Martino of SNY, talks have stalled with a noticeable gap between the two clubs. Heyman says that “at least nine” clubs have checked in, while the report from The Athletic says the Blue Jays are involved.
All the reports indicate that the Padres are asking for a multi-player return, with Martino reporting that the Friars asked for Michael King, Drew Thorpe and four or five other prospects such as Randy Vásquez and Jhony Brito, as well as salary relief for Soto and Trent Grisham, who was also in the discussions. He adds that none of Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells or Everson Pereira are involved. The report from The Athletic identifies Clarke Schmidt as a target.
It seems there is a disparity in how to value Soto, who is incredibly talented in a vacuum but there are other factors that could diminish his value in a trade. He only just turned 25 years old but has already played in 779 big league games with 160 home runs. He has drawn walks in 19% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 17.1% of them. He has slashed .284/.421/.524 overall for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter.
But he is now just one year removed from free agency, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an arbitration salary of $33MM next year. It is generally expected that signing him to an extension will be extremely difficult, given that he’s about to hit the open market just after his 26th birthday, a uniquely young age for a free agent. The Nationals reportedly offered him an extension of $440MM in July of last year, eventually putting him on the trading block when he rejected it. Since then, he banked $23MM in 2023 and is set to add about $33MM more next year, increasing his earning power as he has moved to free agency. That makes him seen by many in the industry as a one-year rental.
Shortly after that extension was turned down, the Nats were able to trade Soto and Josh Bell for a package of six players: C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana and Luke Voit. But that was when Soto still had two and a half years of control remaining. Now he is down to one year and his salary has increased to roughly market rate for a star player.
Given the changing circumstances, his trade value should be far lower now than it was when the Padres acquired him. But the Padres still seem to be asking for a significant package of players, seemingly focused on pitching. King still has two years of control whereas Vásquez and Brito each have six. Thorpe is one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospects and hasn’t reached Triple-A yet. From the perspective of the Friars, they think the Yankees are acting like the only suitors, presumably extending offers the Padres consider non-starters.
It’s possible that this is just a classic case of early negotiations, where both sides stake out extremely unreasonable positions and gradually meet in the middle. But both sides also have the option of pivoting elsewhere. The Padres seem to have many other clubs calling, while the Yanks can walk away from Soto and pursue free agents like Cody Bellinger. They are known to be looking for two outfielders, which is presumably why Grisham’s name has been brought up in talks, but the Yanks could always looks elsewhere.
As for the Jays, it’s unsurprising that they are involved. General manager Ross Atkins has admitted that the club is looking for significant upgrades to their lineup, targeting big names like Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani. Like many things this offseason, the ultimate outcome might have to wait for a decision from Ohtani. Recent reporting indicates the Jays are one of the handful of clubs still involved as Ohtani’s market whittles down. But if they end up just missing there, they could call up the Padres and try to get something done for Soto.
Some reports have suggested that the Friars could look to finish a Soto deal as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings, but it might actually be in their best interests to wait. Since nothing is close with the Yankees and the Jays are waiting on Ohtani, the Padres might get a better deal with a bit of patience. Earlier reporting has suggested the Cubs, Giants and Phillies could be involved and there are other speculative fits as well.
Despite Soto’s immense talent, he’s available in trade talks due to the budgetary concerns in San Diego. The club’s payroll for next year is currently estimates by Roster Resource to be around $189MM. Due to aggressive spending in recent years and their loss of broadcast revenue with the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, they are expected to be working with a reduced payroll of around $200MM this year. That means they are almost at their limit before addressing the significant losses to their rotation. Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez reached free agency at season’s end, leaving them with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and plenty of uncertainty beyond those two.
It appears that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is trying to kill two birds with one stone, moving Soto and his projected to salary to both clear out some payroll space and bring in the pitching they sorely need. Whether he can pull it off will be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in the weeks to come.
Padres Continuing Juan Soto Trade Talks
Chatter about a potential Juan Soto trade has gained steam within the past few days. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote on Tuesday the Padres were “almost certain” to deal the star outfielder this offseason. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported this morning that the Friars are engaging other clubs in discussions about the winter’s top trade candidate.
While there’s no indication one team has moved ahead as any sort of favorite, it seems increasingly likely the Padres will pull the trigger on a deal — perhaps as soon as next week’s Winter Meetings. San Diego’s biggest motivation would be to subtract Soto’s arbitration salary, projected at $33MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, from their books. Making a trade relatively early in the offseason would afford the front office more clarity as they subsequently look to deepen the roster in other areas.
The Yankees have made no secret of their desire to add a left-handed hitting outfielder. None would be as impactful as Soto, who could slot into left field to form an otherworldly corner outfield tandem with Aaron Judge. On Wednesday, SNY’s Andy Martino wrote that while San Diego and the Yankees continued ongoing dialogue, talks were still in their early stages and no deal was close.
[Related: The Best Fits For A Juan Soto Trade]
If the Padres accelerate discussions on Soto with the Yankees or another team, it seems controllable starting pitching would be a focal point of the return. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote on Wednesday that San Diego was looking for upper-level rotation help in Soto talks. Both Passan and Dennis Lin of the Athletic expressed a similar sentiment.
That’s no surprise. Rotation depth is the biggest question facing president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office. Each of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez hit free agency. (Martinez has already come off the board by agreeing to a two-year deal with the Reds.) Beyond Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, the Padres have some combination of Pedro Avila, Jay Groome, Matt Waldron, Glenn Otto and Jairo Iriarte as rotation options. That’s nowhere near sufficient for a team that hopes to compete, meaning the Padres need to bring in at least two (ideally three) starters.
That’d be difficult to accomplish via free agency. Lin wrote yesterday that the team was currently operating with around $10-20MM in payroll space. That probably wouldn’t be enough to add more than one notable starter. As shown on MLBTR’s contract tracker, the cost of back-end starting pitching has landed in the low eight-figure range early in the offseason. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson signed with St. Louis for $11MM and $13MM, respectively. Martinez secured a $13MM average annual value on his contract with Cincinnati. Rebound candidate Luis Severino received a $13MM guarantee from the Mets.
Adding someone of that nature could require all of the financial resources presently at the front office’s disposal. The Padres need multiple starters and are likely to look for some kind of relief help after seeing Josh Hader hit free agency and flipping Scott Barlow to the Guardians for Enyel De Los Santos. They need a backup catcher behind Luis Campusano and could stand to bring in position player depth off the bench.
Accomplishing all that won’t be possible without clearing payroll. They have smaller alternatives outside of a Soto trade. Center fielder Trent Grisham, with a projected $4.9MM arbitration salary, could move. There’d be plenty of interest in second baseman Ha-Seong Kim, who is due $10MM (including a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option) in his final season before free agency. They’d have a harder time offloading the likes of Jake Cronenworth or Robert Suarez and almost certainly won’t be able to trade Xander Bogaerts, whose $280MM free agent deal seemed well above market value.
Soto projects as the highest-paid player on next year’s roster. Trading him would clear the most short-term spending room of any move the Padres could make. They’d bring back some amount of MLB-ready help in that deal, although they’d clearly recoup far less than they surrendered to acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline. With only one season of club control and a hefty projected salary that’ll rule out a lot of organizations, the trade value is less than one might expect for an MVP-caliber player.
The closest analogue is the 2020 Mookie Betts trade. The Red Sox received Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong while offloading around $48MM on the underwater David Price contract. Verdugo, the headliner, was a 24-year-old outfielder with five seasons of club control who had hit .294/.342/.475 the year before. (By measure of wRC+, that was 12 percentage points better than league average in the “juiced ball” 2019 season.) Downs ranked 86th on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects at the time. Wong was a mid-tier talent in the Dodgers farm system.
San Diego should top that return if they’re not attaching another contract. Yet it’s possible they don’t return anyone as valuable as the top three talents (MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams and James Wood) whom they sent to the Nationals to acquire Soto.
Each of Kuty and Jon Heyman of the New York Post unsurprisingly indicate the Yankees are unlikely to include Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe in a Soto package. Kuty adds that New York is also reluctant to relinquish pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, while Heyman indicates they prefer to retain Michael King. Both Kuty and Heyman float right-hander Clarke Schmidt as a possible piece of the return. Schmidt, who is projected for a $2.6MM salary and eligible for arbitration for four seasons, would likely be more of a secondary piece after turning in a 4.64 ERA with decent strikeout and walk numbers over 159 innings.
Of course, the Padres will consider offers from teams outside the Bronx. The Cubs have shown interest; Passan floats the Giants and Phillies as possibilities, although a deal with San Francisco would be made challenging by the intra-divisional aspect. They’ll likely be limited to high-payroll clubs with a legitimate chance to compete in 2024. As a one-year rental, Soto isn’t a fit for teams that aren’t firmly in “win-now” mode.
Martino reported yesterday that the Mets were likely to remain on the sidelines as they align their contention window more firmly towards ’25. Passan indicates the Red Sox have a similar reluctance to surrender much future value for a rental. He adds that the Mariners — a strong fit from a roster perspective — may be deterred by Soto’s projected salary.
As for San Diego, trading Soto would open the ability to make a run at some players in the middle tiers of free agency. Passan reports that the Friars could pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee and/or NPB reliever Yuki Matsui if they made a move on Soto. Lee, whom MLBTR predicts for a five-year, $50MM pact, could step into the outfield spot vacated by Soto’s departure. MLBTR predicted a two-year, $16MM contract on Matsui — a left-hander who worked to a 1.57 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 57 1/3 innings during his final season in Japan.