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Jhoan Duran

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 4: Twins Get Baseball’s Hardest-Throwing Reliever

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6 and No. 5. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 4…

The 2018 season marked the end of an era in Minnesota. Former No. 1 overall pick, six-time All-Star, three-time batting champion and American League MVP Joe Mauer was playing out the final season of his contract and of his career. That $184MM deal didn’t go at all as hoped, as a series of concussions forced Mauer from behind the plate to first base and surely contributed to a decline at the plate as well. The Twins hoped to bolster the roster with a series of what looked to be solid veteran pickups in the 2017-18 offseason, adding veterans Addison Reed, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Zach Duke, Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney via free agency and trade.

Any hopes of contending were dashed with a catastrophic start to the season, however. Minnesota started out with a solid 8-5 showing to begin the year but dropped 11 of the next 12 games, falling all the way to 9-16 on just May 1. By the time July rolled around, Minnesota was 10 games under .500 and nine games out of first place in the division.

Unsurprisingly, as the deadline approached, the Twins took the general position of sellers. Veterans Lynn, Brian Dozier and Ryan Pressly were traded away. Both Lynn and Dozier were rental players, but the returns on those deals proved negligible before long, and they were never under consideration for this series. There was one more veteran on an expiring contract that the Twins traded away, however: utilityman Eduardo Escobar.

The affable switch-hitter, then 29 years old, was in the midst of a career-best season at the plate. The D-backs, needing an upgrade in the infield and eyeing Escobar’s .274/.338/.514 batting line and 15 homers, put together a package of three players that won the bidding for Escobar: 19-year-old outfielder Gabriel Maciel, 22-year-old outfielder Ernie De La Trinidad … and a 20-year-old righty named Jhoan Duran. Given the ages of the players acquired, the Twins knew this was a long-term play at best. Only De La Trinidad, the “third” piece in the deal, was anywhere close to contributing in the Majors, and even he was just in A-ball at the time of the trade.

The D-backs got what they were hoping for out of Escobar — and then some. He slashed a solid .268/.327/.444 in Arizona following the trade but also enjoyed his time there to the point that he opted to forgo a trip to the open market in favor of a three-year, $21MM extension just days before he was slated to officially become a free agent.

Escobar was again quite good with the Diamondbacks in 2019, popping a career-high 35 home runs, 29 doubles and an MLB-best 10 triples in what’s now commonly referenced as the juiced-ball season. He struggled in the shortened 2020 campaign but rebounded nicely in 2021 — earning the lone All-Star appearance of his career to date. The D-backs were out of contention themselves in ’21 and traded Escobar to the Brewers for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel and infielder/outfielder Alberto Ciprian. Hummel has since been flipped to the Mariners in exchange for oft-injured former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

Looking at the Twins’ side of the deal — just as with No. 7 entry Alex Lange and the Tigers, it’s taken a few years for the results to manifest. However, the Twins have to be thrilled with Duran’s emergence as a premium reliever. The flamethrowing righty is a human highlight reel thanks to a heater that can run up to 104 mph and a splitter/sinker hybrid (“splinker”) that averages 99.1 mph and regularly crosses the plate at triple-digit velocities. Unlike many of his flamethrowing counterparts, Duran has also shown strong command. This year’s walk rate is higher than his stellar rookie campaign, but overall Duran has walked a better-than-average 7.7% of his big league opponents.

Since making his debut with the Twins early last season, Duran owns a superlative 1.75 ERA with a 33.8% strikeout rate, that 7.7% walk rate and a massive 62.6% ground-ball rate. He’s baseball’s hardest-throwing reliever and ranks at or near the top of leaderboards in opponents’ chase rate, swinging-strike rate and “expected” batting average and wOBA (per Statcast). He’s tallied 18 holds and moved into the primary closer role for Minnesota, adding 16 saves since being given the lion’s share of opportunities.

Rather quickly, Duran has thrust himself into the conversation for baseball’s best reliever. He ranks sixth among all qualified MLB relievers in ERA dating back to the beginning of the 2022 season. His strikeout rate sits ninth in that same group, and his K-BB% is 13th. Only Clay Holmes and Andre Pallante have induced ground-balls at a higher rate. Only Edwin Diaz, Andres Munoz and the previously mentioned Lange induce swinging strikes at a higher rate than Duran’s 18.2%, and only six relievers have induced chases on pitches out of the strike zone at a higher clip than Duran’s 40.3%.

Duran is the only one of the three prospects acquired for Escobar who’s panned out, but he’s panned out in a massive way and is under club control all the way through the 2027 season. Neither Maciel nor De La Trinidad is in the Twins organization anymore — and neither even climbed as high as the Triple-A level in Minnesota’s system. Had either amounted to even a fourth outfielder at the big league level, the Escobar trade could well rank even higher in this series.

Instead, it can largely be viewed as a win for both clubs, even if the Snakes would surely love to have Duran in their bullpen at present. The D-backs got a productive couple months from Escobar, extended him for three more years at a reasonable rate, got some good production from him and eventually traded him for more minor league talent. The Twins keyed in on a series of high-upside but high-risk prospects rather than lower-upside players who might’ve been closer to the big leagues. We regularly see teams acquire low-level position players with loud tools or low-level pitchers with huge arms in rental trades. The success rate on players who are that far from the Majors is understandably quite a bit lower — but the Twins’ acquisition of Duran is the exact type of jackpot all teams are trying to hit in these scenarios.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Falvey: Bullpen Upgrades “Not A Priority”

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The Twins have been active this offseason, re-signing Carlos Correa while bringing in new faces such as Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer. Things have been relatively quiet in terms of the bullpen, however, and it doesn’t seem as though that’s going to change in the near future. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that a significant bullpen addition it isn’t a pressing concern right now. “If we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings],” Falvey said. “We’ll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority.”

Last year, the club’s relief corps was firmly in the middle of the pack. Their collective 3.84 ERA was tied for 15th among the 30 teams in the league, while their 3.85 FIP was 14th, their 3.79 xFIP 10th and their 3.50 SIERA ninth. That group also took a hit when deadline acquisition Michael Fulmer reached free agency, though he remains unsigned.

It seems Falvey and the other decision makers in Minnesota have a lot of faith in their internal options. Jorge López was acquired from the Orioles at the deadline last year but still has two remaining years of club control. “We did our bullpen shopping at the [trade] deadline last year by adding some depth, adding Jorge [López],” Falvey said. After many years of mediocre performance as a starter, López converted to a bullpen role full-time in 2022 to great results. In 44 appearances for the O’s, he posted a 1.68 ERA while getting grounders at a 60% clip, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and walking 8.7%. Unfortunately, he didn’t maintain that pace after the trade, with a 4.37 ERA, 53.7% grounder rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate as a Twin.

López will be looking for a bounceback after that frustrating finish to his 2022 campaign, though the club also has other intriguing names in the mix that could step up. Jhoan Durán was primarily a starter in the minors but cracked the majors last year in a relief role and utterly dominated. He tossed 67 2/3 innings over 57 appearances with a 1.86 ERA, getting grounders at a 61% clip while striking out 33.5% of opponents and walking just 6% of them. “He adapted to a new role, at the highest level, faster than we could have hoped,” Falvey said.

As for others in the mix that they’re encouraged by, Falvey had this to say: “We watched Griffin Jax develop into someone we can rely on. What Jovani Moran did the last month of the season, it’s something he can really build upon.” Jax also moved from a starter to a reliever in 2022, and while he didn’t match Durán’s results, he still did well. With 65 appearances last year, he finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, 47.3% ground ball rate, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Moran, meanwhile, put up a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.9% pace, while striking out 32.9% of batters faced, though he did walk 11% of them.

Though Falvey admits they might still make a small addition, it seems they feel they already have the high-leverage arms they need. “We feel like we have the eighth and ninth innings covered,” he says. Other relievers likely to be in the club’s bullpen include Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcalá and Trevor Megill.

Roster Notes: Twins, Marlins, Pirates, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies

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With the season just a few days away, roster decisions around the game continue to trickle in. We’ll round up some notable non 40-man roster decisions here.

    • Twins pitching prospect Jhoan Duran has made the Opening Day roster, per a club announcement. He’ll initially work out of the bullpen. Ranked the #9 prospect in the Minnesota organization by Baseball America, Duran draws praise for an upper-90s fastball and a power splitter that have helped him run plus strikeout rates throughout his minor league career.
    • The Marlins have informed outfielder Roman Quinn he will not make the Opening Day roster, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). It comes as a bit of a surprise, as Quinn had seemed the favorite for a fourth outfield role after the Fish released Delino DeShields Jr. over the weekend. Presumably, that job will fall to utilityman Jon Berti early on.
    • Infield prospect Diego Castillo has made the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Castillo, acquired in the trade that sent righty Clay Holmes to the Yankees, will make his big league debut the first time he gets into a game.
    • The Yankees announced they’ve reassigned outfielder Ender Inciarte and left-hander Manny Bañuelos to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Inciarte has an opt-out clause in his minor league deal and tells ESPN’s Marly Rivera he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll accept the assignment to Triple-A.
    • The Cubs informed pitching prospect Ethan Roberts he’ll be on the Opening Day roster, he informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). A fourth-round pick in 2018 out of Tennessee Tech, the right-hander is the #33 prospect in the organization according to Baseball America. The reliever posted an even 3.00 ERA over 54 innings between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa last season. The Cubs reassigned non-roster invitees Jonathan Holder, Robert Gsellman, Steven Brault, Stephen Gonsalves and Ildemaro Vargas to Iowa, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
    • The Phillies reassigned non-roster invitees Ronald Torreyes, Yairo Muñoz and Dillon Maples to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Torreyes and Muñoz were competing for utility spots, while the hard-throwing Maples had been seeking a spot in the Philly bullpen.

 

Injury Updates: Gregorius, Plesac, Smith, Yajure, Duran

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Didi Gregorius resumed his Triple-A rehab assignment tonight, after halting the assignment on June 10 after just two games.  Gregorius hasn’t played a big league game since May 12 due to a right elbow impingement and a condition known as pseudogout, which might have led to the setback in his rehab.  However, Gregorius now looks to be on track, and if all things go well, could be on pace to rejoin the Phillies before the end of June.  Now in his second season in Philadelphia, Gregorius was off to a slow start with a .229/.266/.364 slash line in his first 128 plate appearances.

More on other sidelined players from around the majors…

  • Indians right-hander Zach Plesac has been on the 10-day injured list for almost a month due to a non-displaced fracture in his right thumb, but he took another step forward in his recovery process today.  Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer was among those to report that Plesac was set to throw a 40-pitch bullpen session today, with 20 pitches each on flat ground and off a mound.  This is Plesac’s second bullpen session in seven days’ time, so if he emerges in good condition, a rehab assignment might not be too far away.
  • Veteran reliever Joe Smith is also on tap for a bullpen session, with Smith telling reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that he plans to run through his entire arsenal of pitches when throwing tomorrow.  Elbow soreness sent the Astros righty to the IL on June 9, and he could just need the one bullpen before beginning a minor league rehab assignment.
  • The Pirates shifted right-hander Miguel Yajure from the seven-day minor league IL to the 60-day IL.  Yajure was first sidelined with right elbow/forearm soreness on June 1, and today’s transaction is “just more of a paper move” that “has nothing to do with how he’s progressing or what he’s doing,” manager Derek Shelton told reporters (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).  Yajure only just began throwing, and it appears as though he wasn’t going to be back within 60 days from his initial IL placement anyway — as Mackey notes, the Bucs don’t gain a 40-man roster spot with the move, since Yajure was in the minor leagues when first placed on the injured list.  One of the four players acquired from the Yankees in the Jameson Taillon trade back in January, Yajure has a 2.76 ERA over 16 1/3 MLB innings over the last two seasons.
  • Twins right-handed pitching prospect Jhoan Duran was shut down three days ago due to an elbow strain, though the team announced (hat tip to MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) that surgery wasn’t recommended.  The shutdown will continue for the next 5-6 weeks as Duran’s elbow will continue to be monitored, and there is hope that he can then rehab in time to pitch again before the 2021 season is cover.  Currently ranked as the 80th-best prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, Duran made his Triple-A debut this year but has struggled, posting a 5.06 ERA with 13 walks in 16 innings (though with a 29.33% strikeout rate).

AL Central Notes: Civale, Buxton, Duran, Burger

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The Indians’ rotation depth has been tested already, and they could now be facing another injury. Right-hander Aaron Civale exited tonight with two outs in the fifth inning with an injury to his right middle finger. The Score’s Travis Sawchik notes, via Twitter, that the medical staff was testing the mobility of Civale’s finger as opposed to looking at a potential blister. There’s no official diagnosis, but for a Cleveland club that already has Shane Bieber (shoulder strain) and Zach Plesac (fractured hand) on the injured list, any injury scare for the club’s most proven starter is particularly noteworthy.

Cleveland has cycled through myriad young options in hopes of churning out another quality starter, as they’ve seemingly been able to do at will in recent years. However, each of Triston McKenzie, Sam Hentges, Logan Allen, Eli Morgan and Jean Carlos Mejia has an ERA north of 6.00 after multiple starts. Swingman Cal Quantrill gave the Indians a much-needed five innings of shutout ball his last time out but hasn’t had much success overall in four starts. The Indians are still nine games over .500 despite those injuries and an offense that ranks among the worst in MLB (88 wRC+), but it’ll be increasingly difficult to maintain that standing if questions about the rotation continue to mount.

More news from the division…

  • Twins center fielder Byron Buxton just returned from the injured list, but he exited tonight’s game against the Reds after five innings. Buxton was hit by a pitch on the left hand in his prior at-bat and played a couple innings of defense before ultimately exiting the game. Minnesota has won four straight games and can ill afford to lose Buxton if the team wants to cling to any faint hope of clawing its way back into the race. It stands to reason that the club would likely have Buxton undergo x-rays, even if his removal were deemed precautionary. They’ll presumably have an update after the game on Buxton, who is 4-for-10 with a homer and a double since returning from the IL two days ago.
  • The Twins have shut down top pitching prospect Jhoan Duran due to an elbow strain, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told reporters (Twitter link via Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). He’s undergoing imaging to determine the severity of the issue. Minnesota has been attempting to weather injury troubles for two of its top three starters (Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda) while getting awful results from fourth and fifth starters J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker. The Twins’ miserable rotation performance is perhaps the primary reason for their surprisingly poor record, and an injury to Duran would rob the club of a high-profile prospect who entered the season as a candidate to make his MLB debut this summer. Duran ranked as the game’s No. 83 prospect at The Athletic and No. 86 at FanGraphs, but he’s been limited to just 16 innings this season. Duran allowed one run with a 14-to-3 K/BB ratio in his first seven innings but has since been tagged for eight runs on 11 hits and an alarming 10 walks in nine innings.
  • The White Sox are without Nick Madrigal for the remainder of the season, and while it appears they’re exploring the market for infield help, they’re also taking some looks at creative in-house options. Third base prospect Jake Burger is getting some work at second base in Triple-A, writes Vinnie Duber of NBC Sports Chicago. Burger, 25, is in the midst of his first season since 2017 after a pair of Achilles injuries wiped out his 2018 and 2019 campaigns. The 2017 first-rounder has left little doubt that he’s a talented hitter, batting .277/.320/.555 with eight homers, 12 doubles and a triple in 147 plate appearances in his first in-game action after a three-year layoff. The 6’2″, 230-pound Burger would be one of the larger players you’d see at second base, but manager Tony La Russa notes to Duber that with Yoan Moncada hitting so well at the hot corner, at-bats there won’t be easy to come by if Burger’s bat does force its way to the big leagues: “I think it’s really smart, and it’s smarter if you do it down there where it’s not such a microscope. … I like that they’re exposing him to second base down there.”

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