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Big Hype Prospects: Abbott, Brown, Encarnacion-Strand, Povich, Sheehan

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With so many clubs needing to plunge into the minors for pitching reinforcements, let’s put more attention on this next wave of arms.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Andrew Abbott, 24, SP, CIN (AAA)
31.1 IP, 13.21 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 3.16 ERA

Abbott walked all over the Southern League earlier this season, posting a 1.15 ERA with 20.68 K/9 and 1.72 BB/9 in three starts. The Reds got him out of there in a hurry – possibly because the pre-tacked ball used in that league was obscuring aspects of his development. Since arriving in Triple-A, Abbott has reverted to a good-not-great trajectory and there’s still risk he’ll eventually land in the bullpen. From a stuff perspective, he has a starter’s repertoire. Like most young pitchers, Abbott’s command can be inconsistent and mostly draws negative comments. There’s reason for concern about home run prevention, especially at Great American Ball Park.

Ben Brown, 23, SP, CHC (AAA)
24 IP, 13.50 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 3.75 ERA

Brown was acquired from the Phillies in the David Robertson trade. Like Abbott, Brown dominated the Southen League (20 IP, 0.45 ERA) en route to a quick promotion. He’s continued to miss bats, albeit with a couple red flags. Per a statistical source, hitters have averaged a 91.3-mph exit velocity against Brown in Triple-A. It’s a small sample concern for now. Inconsistencies with his command remain on display, and the relief risk is palpable. While his fastball, slider, and curve are all viewed as above-average offerings, the lack of command and changeup are traits of pitchers who eventually land in the bullpen. We’ve seen plenty of guys succeed with non-traditional repertoires lately, but they usually rely on some sort of unicorn trait. I’m unaware of Brown fitting this mold.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
146 PA, 13 HR, .346/.384/.721

Prospects like CES tend to create a lot of arguments among the general public. He was one of the top minor league performers in 2022, and he’s repeating the effort this season. However, poor plate discipline and a hefty swinging-strike rate introduce considerable risk. There’s also doubt about his ability to stick at third base. Cincinnati has already conceded this by using him 17 games at first, seven at DH, and seven at third. Few first basemen are this ill-disciplined. Of qualified first basemen, only Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela, and Ryan Mountcastle have walk rates below 6.0 percent. Drury and Urshela aren’t really first basemen. On the other hand, CES punishes baseballs when he connects, averaging 92.2-mph on contact. If he can mount any sort of resistance to the inevitable bevy of breaking balls out of the zone, he could develop into a legitimate 40-homer threat.

Cade Povich, 23, SP, BAL (AA)
40 IP, 13.73 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 4.50 ERA

Acquired in the Jorge Lopez trade, Povich probably deserves inclusion in the latter portion of Top 100 lists. The southpaw doesn’t have any overwhelming traits, but the total package resembles many adequate left-handers around the league. Povich’s basic stats suggest cause for both optimism and skepticism. His 2.20 FIP and 2.47 xFIP are a sight better than his 4.50 ERA – largely due to a .356 BABIP and 62.2 percent strand rate. In the minors, such stats can be more than the “luck” we generally attribute them to in the Majors, and Povich also had a poor strand rate in 2022. It could indicate issues pitching out of the stretch. I’ve reached out to a couple contacts for their thoughts.

Worth mentioning, the Eastern League is not using the pretacked ball.

Emmet Sheehan, 23, SP, LAD (AA)
44 IP, 15.55 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.64 ERA

The Texas League also isn’t using the pretacked ball. Sheehan started to generate hype late last season, culminating in a successful stint in the Arizona Fall League. Sheehan is overwhelming the Double-A competition as evidenced by a 20.1 percent swinging strike rate, .176 BABIP, and 97% strand rate. Such figures indicate luck, but they also speak of an ability to miss bats with impunity. The star of the show is a double-plus changeup. A prospect watcher tipped me off last season about changeup artists – they tend to overperform in the minors. At the time, we were discussing Grayson Rodriguez. Like the other pitchers we’ve covered today, Sheehan’s command sparks comments about a future in the bullpen. Scouts also seem to dislike his mechanics – he tends to fall off hard to the first base line. I tend to ignore such comments. Goofy mechanics may (or may not) increase injury risk, but they also lead to unusual looks for hitters.

Three More

Matt McLain, CIN (23): McLain, who we discussed in this section last week, has rushed out to a heady .380/.456/.600 performance in 57 Major League plate appearances. Red flags include a .531 BABIP, modest exit velocities, and 28.1 percent strikeout rate. However, McLain is showing power, advanced plate discipline, and a high rate of swinging contact (7.3 percent SwStr%).

Zach Dezenzo, HOU (23): Although not yet on the radar for top prospect status, Dezenzo is quickly accelerating through the Astros system as a third baseman. A scout brought him to my attention a month ago. He’s a low-angle, line-drive machine, leading to high BABIPs. There’s considerable swing-and-miss in his game, introducing risk of stalling in the upper minors. Dezenzo was recently promoted to Double-A.

Johan Rojas, PHI (22): For fans of Esteury Ruiz, Rojas basically has a better version of a similar profile. He doesn’t visually look like Alfonso Soriano the way Ruiz does, but you can easily discern the athletic ability. Unlike Ruiz, he’s already regarded as a plus center fielder. Already on the 40-man roster, Rojas seems likely to ascend to Triple-A in the coming weeks.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Phillies Select Johan Rojas

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The Philliles announced that they have selected outfielder Johan Rojas to their 40-man roster. Today is the deadline for teams to add players to their rosters in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Rojas, 22, was an international free agent signing of the club in 2018. Since then, he has been considered one of the club’s top prospects, largely based on his speed and defense. Here in 2022, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, stealing 62 bases in 130 games while playing all three outfield spots but mostly in center field.

His bat isn’t quite as exciting as the rest of his game, however. His combined batting line on the year was .244/.309/.354 for a wRC+ of 83. With the baserunning and the glovework, he should have a nice floor, though a step forward at the plate could turn him into an exciting and well-rounded player.

Even without a strong bat, he could be a nice fit on a Phillies’ team that already has plenty of thump from the outfield grass. With Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos all signed for years to come, adding in a speed-and-defense option could be a nice complement. Brandon Marsh will be that guy for now, as Rojas looks to tackle the upper levels of the minors.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, Walker, Pages, Lavigne, Kjerstad

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Big Hype Prospects remains focused on the Arizona Fall League. Let’s dig in.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 22, OF, PHI (AA)
AFL: 44 PA, 10 SB, .297/.386/.378

Rojas is one of the prospects I’m most closely tracking this fall. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter, though there’s little chance the Phillies would risk exposing him to the draft. With his elite defense and double-plus speed, at least 20 teams could easily hide him on their roster for a full season. His development could affect how the Phillies approach the free agent and trade markets in the coming winters as they transition away from their long-standing reputation as a poor fielding franchise.

The early results in Arizona are a mixed bag. He does have a solid triple-slash and three doubles, though he’s yet to muscle up for a home run. Only Zac Veen (13) has more stolen bases. Rojas and Veen are also the only players to feature a three-steal game. Rojas did it by nabbing each bag once. You can find a video of his thefts of third and home via Jacob Resnick of MLB.com (scroll down). It sure looked to me (Twitter link) that the pitcher was a tad insulted by the steal of home.

Encouragingly, Rojas has five walks (11.4% BB%) and six strikeouts (13.6% K%) in his 44 plate appearances. The two areas of his game that need the most work are in-game power and plate discipline.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
AFL: 47 PA, 2 HR, 1 SB, .300/.362/.525

Although nobody should be upset with the above stat line, Walker ranks just 25th out of 62 qualified hitters by OPS. Nevertheless, he’s putting on an impressive display on both sides of the ball that has only served to highlight his physical readiness. Like Rojas, Walker’s development has major implications for the Cardinals mid-range plans. It’s long been rumored that Nolan Arenado will not opt out of his contract. Walker, however, is a talented defender who has been measured brushing triple-digit velocities on throws across the diamond. He also features Major League caliber exit velocities – he regularly exceeds 100-mph with his batted balls. All this from a 20-year-old who has all the makings of a franchise cornerstone. If Arenado does remain in St. Louis, they’ll have tough decisions to make soon – perhaps as early as next spring.

Andy Pages, 21, OF, LAD (AA)
AFL: 43 PA, 3 HR, .278/.372/.556

A consistent power-hitting prospect, Pages is coming off a solid showing at Double-A. Barring a change in approach, he’s destined to be a low-average, high-ISO slugger. As a hitter, comparisons to vintage Rhys Hoskins are almost unavoidable (Hoskins adjusted his batted ball profile this season). Pages puts more than half of his batted balls in the air, has plus discipline, and features more than enough raw power to casually blast more than 30 home runs per full season. My home run calculator projects a range of 28 home runs (at a 15% HR/FB ratio) to 47 home runs (25% HR/FB ratio) per 600 plate appearances. Presently, he plays center field, though there are questions about his ability to stick there. Some scouts believe he’ll slow considerably as he ages.

Grant Lavigne, 23, 1B, COL (AA)
AFL: 42 PA, 1 SB, .389/.476/.611

Once considered an interesting prospect with upside, Lavigne has fallen off lists in recent years amidst unimpressive results. This season, he posted a 146 wRC+ as a slightly old High-A player before turning in a 102 wRC+ in Double-A. He’s a first-base-only prospect so his lack of power – 10 home runs in 524 plate appearances – could be a fatal blow to his prospectdom. However, he has excellent plate discipline and a batted-ball approach that could outperform expectations at Coors Field. When I squint, I see him as sort of similar to a more patient and whiff-prone version of Eric Hosmer. Although he’s yet to homer this fall, Lavigne leads the league with six doubles. Lavigne is Rule 5 eligible this winter and might be left exposed.

Heston Kjerstad, 23, OF, BAL (AA)
AFL: 57 PA, 4 HR, .352/.386/.648

Kjerstad leads the league with 19 hits and is tied with Matt Mervis for the home run lead. He also has four doubles. The other hit leaders have taken a slappier approach, featuring minimal extra-base contact. As we profiled last week, Kjerstad lost most of two seasons due to COVID shutdowns and heart inflammation.

In less positive news, his 16 strikeouts are second-worst in the AFL, behind only Rece Hinds. Whiffs figure to remain an unavoidable part of Kjerstad’s game. So long as he’s achieving game power – as he is this fall – he remains a promising but volatile prospect.

Five More

Lawrence Butler, OAK (22): A slow-burn prospect who has hit at every level up through High-A, Butler has the fourth-best OPS in the AFL. A patient slugger who has always struggled with strikeouts, he tallied 10 walks and only seven strikeouts through 42 plate appearances. As a left-handed hitter, he has an easier path to relevance than other players with a similar toolset like Peyton Burdick. Butler should spend 2023 in Double-A. He’s being evaluated for a 40-man roster spot since he’s Rule 5 eligible.

Yasel Antuna, WSH (22): Antuna will turn 23 next Wednesday. A former top international prospect, his development has been slower and less impressive than originally hoped. His plate discipline is his standout trait, and it’s been on full display in Arizona where he has seven walks and one strikeout in 23 plate appearances. There are rumors his discipline is actually passivity. A dose of targeted aggression could unlock better power outcomes.

T.J. Rumfield, NYY (22): Acquired from the Phillies in exchange for Nick Nelson, Rumfield is an intriguing first base prospect who missed considerable development time – both in college and post-draft. When he’s been on the field, he’s demonstrated superb plate discipline. He puts on power displays in batting practice, though this has yet to translate in-game. He currently leads the AFL with a 1.236 OPS in 38 plate appearances.

Austin Martin, MIN (23): Martin is next-best with a 1.168 OPS in 48 plate appearances. It’s a BABIP-driven batting line – only three of his 18 hits have gone for extra bases. An important component of the Jose Berrios trade, Martin has intriguing discipline and contact skills. In his present form, he profiles as a most-days super utility guy. There’s risk higher-level pitchers will overpower him.

Edouard Julien, MIN (23): Another future Twins utility guy, Julien features pristine plate discipline that can verge into passivity at times. His pickiness results in an elevated strikeout rate despite above-average contact skills. He’s also never posted below a 19.3 percent walk rate. For comparison, among qualified Major Leaguers, only Juan Soto (20.3% BB%) exceeded a 16 percent walk rate this season. Julien isn’t on par with Soto, but he does have a well-rounded skill set and… surprise, surprise, he leads the AFL with 13 walks (30.9% BB%) and 10 strikeouts (23.8% K%) in 42 plate appearances.

Big Hype Prospects: Rojas, McLain, Davis, Davis, Priester

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we pretend the offseason isn’t looming over us whilst we ponder prospects on the way to the Arizona Fall League. The AFL kicks off on October 3. We’ll aim to focus on players who weren’t thoroughly covered in previous episodes of BHP, i.e. Cardinals third baseman Jordan Walker. He happens to be the top-rated prospect tabbed to play in Arizona this fall.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Johan Rojas, 21, OF, PHI (AA)
264 PA, 4 HR, 29 SB, .260/.333/.387

After an icy start to the season in High-A where he hit a meager .230/.287/.325 in 292 plate appearances (3 HR, 33 SB), Rojas got his act in gear and earned a promotion to Double-A where he produced an exactly league-average batting line. A source theorized he was striving to produce home-run power, and it backfired. Prior to the season, Rojas cited Ronald Acuna Jr. as his aspirational goal. One could see how such a lofty target might lead a prospect to struggle.

Rojas is best known for his elite defense and speed. This season, he swiped a total of 62 bases in 67 attempts and only 556 plate appearances. With new baserunning rules coming into effect, Rojas profiles to be among the league leaders in stolen bases over the next half-decade. Although he’s not as strikeout prone as Adalberto Mondesi, he might prove frustratingly similar. He can deliver surprisingly potent exit velocities, but he mostly makes modest contact due to poor discipline and off-balance swings. Without a breakthrough, he profiles as an above-average centerfielder who hits something like .240/.290/.350 and makes up for it on defense and the basepaths.

Rojas is Rule 5 eligible this winter and will certainly be added to the roster.

Matt McLain, 22, SS, CIN (AA)
452 PA, 17 HR, 27 SB, .232/.363/.453

McLain is a well-regarded prospect in scouting circles, but he can get a bit lost in a system that also boasts the inimitable Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte up the middle. Entering the season, he was regarded as a bat-first future second baseman whose lack of power could lead to a utility role. It appears he attempted to sell out for power this season with modest effect. He hit 17 home runs and more flies than grounders – a good foundation for a player who will call Great American Smallpark his home venue. Unfortunately, he also posted a 28.1 percent strikeout rate – unsightly for a player whom scouts believe has a 60-grade hit tool. Discipline could play a role here as well. He walked in 15.5 percent of plate appearances, a sign of borderline passivity.

Optimists might note that Gunnar Henderson had similar characteristics last season. He made better swing decisions in 2022 en route to number one prospect status. McLain doesn’t have the same raw tools as Henderson, but he could seek to follow the same roadmap from Double-A to the Majors.

Henry Davis, 22, C, PIT (AAA)
(AA) 136 PA, 4 HR, 3 SB, .207/.324/.379

Davis only managed 255 plate appearances across four levels due to a left wrist fracture. That’s not an auspicious form of injury for a player whose defensive prowess is actively questioned. All aspects of his defensive profile need improvement. The profile has a vaguely Gary Sanchez-like feel – both for defensive reasons and because light-tower power is his carrying trait. Unlike Sanchez, Davis has plenty of feel for contact and could probably comfortably profile as a first baseman. The Fall League will give him an opportunity to catch up on lost reps.

The Pirates have interesting questions to answer in the next two seasons. Both Davis and Endy Rodriguez (featured last week) profile as offensive catchers who might fit better at another position. Rodriguez appears to be the better defensive catcher and is slightly ahead developmentally so Davis might find himself used more like Daulton Varsho – a guy who can catch in a pinch but typically fields another position.

Brennen Davis, 22, OF, CHC (AAA)
174 PA, 4 HR, .191/.322/.319

Davis suffered a lost season of sorts, making only 204 plate appearances across three levels. On the whole, he struggled mightily. He missed three months with an unusual back injury – a blood vessel deformity that led to debilitating pain. The issue was corrected surgically. Davis will seek to recover his 2021 form which included excellent production in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. Given the nature of his injury, it’s premature to adjust his status as a prospect until we can learn more about his recovery. He has swing-and-miss issues which could limit his production – especially if the injury has sapped his athleticism. Scouting reports tend to focus on the many adjustments he has ahead of him while noting his previous success with making similar adjustments.

Quinn Priester, 21, SP, PIT (AAA)
AA: 75.1 IP, 8.96 K/9, 2.63 BB/9, 2.87 ERA

Although he finished the year in Triple-A, Priester spent the bulk of his campaign at Double-A where he performed well. An oblique injury limited him to only 90.1 innings on the season. For that reason, he’ll attend the AFL. Typically, top pitching prospects only join an Arizona roster if they need to make up for lost innings.

Priester is trending towards a 2023 debut. He’s credited with an impressive curveball and three useful variants of fastball. The repertoire as a whole doesn’t tunnel well which is likely to hold him back from future acedom. However, his ability to miss bats and induce weakly hit ground-ball contact could make up for his shortcomings. Only recently have developmental processes put so much emphasis on pitch tunneling. Plenty of pitchers succeeded in the past (and today) despite a relative lack of tunneling. That said, there’s anecdotal evidence that pitchers without tunneled repertoires take longer to adjust to the Majors.

Five More

Andy Pages, LAD (21): The Dodgers are adept at putting their prospects in positions to succeed, so I often find myself skeptical of their top-rated players. Pages has posted remarkable power output throughout his rise through the minors, but his extreme pulled, fly ball approach could render him a one-dimensional threat. He was a roughly league-average hitter as a 21-year-old at Double-A.

Nick Gonzales (24): Gonzales remains a bit of an enigma. He passes all the eye tests, but his statistical performances leave much to be desired. As a 23-year-old at Double-A, he hit .263/.383/.429 with only seven home runs and five steals in 316 plate appearances. He struggled to make contact with a 16.0 percent swinging strike rate and 28.5 percent strikeout rate. Minor adjustments could unlock major results.

Jackson Merrill, SDP (19): A 2021 first-rounder, Merrill will be one of the youngest players in the AFL. The 19-year-old had an encouraging debut in Low-A, batting .325/.387/.482 in 219 plate appearances. There are questions about his ability to handle high heat or ever generate much power – both of which are probably premature for a player this young.

Zack Gelof, OAK (22): Another 2022 draftee, Gelof got a brief taste of Triple-A last season then spent most of this season in Double-A where he posted an ordinary .271/.356/.438 triple-slash (105 wRC+). Gelof looks the part of a future big league, possibly a second-division starter.

Warming Bernabel, COL (20): Bernabel earned a promotion to High-A late in the season and saw his plate discipline erode (1.8 percent walk rate). Otherwise, he performed ably with a .305/.315/.486 triple-slash in 109 plate appearances. He had more well-rounded success in Low-A where he hit .317/.390/.504 with 10 home runs and 21 triples in 300 plate appearances. At this stage of his career, Bernabel is considered too aggressive to thrive in the Majors, though he does seem to have a knack for squaring up the baseball – even outside of the strike zone.

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