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Jonathan Broxton

Quick Hits: Cubs, McCann, Cespedes, Smoak, Broxton

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Some links as Tuesday turns into Wednesday…

  • “Like I’ve always said, there is one person responsible for making those decisions, and one person accountable for those results,” said Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts to reporters (including Paul Sullivan of The Chicago Tribune) when asked about the possibility of signing a player to a mammoth contract. “So if [Theo Epstein] believes strongly that’s what’s in the best interests of the team, then he’s got my support.” Earlier today we heard that the Cubs are pursuing both Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
  • Dave O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wonders if the Braves will offer Brian McCann a long-term contract extension soon. The six-time All-Star will make $11.5MM in 2012 and the team holds a $12MM club option for 2013, so there's no urgency to get a deal done at the moment.
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo is currently in the Dominican Republic scouting Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson. On Monday we heard that Washington views Cespedes as an alternative to Fielder.
  • The Mariners have interest in Fielder, and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports says (on Twitter) that they would make Justin Smoak available in a trade if they manage to sign the free agent slugger.
  • Before he agreed to join the Royals, the Red Sox expressed interest in Jonathan Broxton according to Scott Lauber of The Boston Herald. Broxton wanted to sign before the winter meetings, and Lauber's source said that was “a little quicker than [the Sox] were comfortable with."
  • There is no more than a "10 percent" chance that Rays GM Andrew Friedman could be convinced to take the Astros GM job according to one executive that spoke to Friedman and ESPN's Jayson Stark (Twitter link).
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman offered a “would not say" to George A. King III of The New York Post when asked if he has any interest in Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima. The Seibu Lions posted Nakajima on Monday.
  • Kelvim Escobar hopes to pitch in winter ball next month, agent Peter Greenberg told Mike Puma of The New York Post (Twitter link). The 35-year-old righty hopes to get back to MLB despite having pitched in just one game since 2007.

Royals To Sign Jonathan Broxton

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The Royals announced that they have agreed to sign Jonathan Broxton to a one-year deal, pending a physical. The deal is worth $4MM and includes $1MM in incentives based on games pitched for the 27-year-old right-hander, who will be Kansas City's setup man in 2012.

“We are delighted to add someone as talented as Jonathan to our bullpen,” Royals GM Dayton Moore said. “He will be used in a setup role to closer Joakim Soria and will help solidify what we feel is a young and talented bullpen.”

Broxton’s 2011 season ended in May after just 12 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA and nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (10). He had arthroscopic elbow surgery in September and was expected to begin an offseason throwing program this month. A dominant reliever for the Dodgers from 2006 to the early part of 2010, Broxton will look to rebuild value on a one-year contract in Kansas City.  

Other than the Royals, the Mets, Rangers and Rays pursued Broxton most intently, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). Overall, at least ten teams expressed interest in Broxton, who's represented by B.B. Abbott of Jet Sports Management.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported the agreement (Twitter link) and Jon Heyman of SI.com added the terms of the deal (Twitter links). Dan Mennella explains the fantasy baseball implications of the move at CloserNews.com, the destination for all reliever-related fantasy baseball news and analysis.

Rockies Inquired On Navarro, Hawkins, Broxton

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We learned earlier today that the Rockies are considering free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez. Here’s more on the team’s free agent options, via Troy Renck of the Denver Post:

  • The Rockies are exploring trades for Ian Stewart and the Cubs have at least some interest, according to Renck (on Twitter).
  • The Rockies have also inquired on free agent backstop Dioner Navarro as a potential backup (Twitter link). Navarro, 27, posted a .193/.276/.324 line in 202 plate appearances for the Dodgers in 2011. He hasn't posted an OPS over .600 since making the All-Star team as a member of the 2008 Rays.
  • If the Rockies sign Hernandez, they would look to trade Chris Iannetta, according to Renck. Iannetta interests the Angels and other clubs have called about him in the past.
  • The Rockies have called to inquire on free agents LaTroy Hawkins and Jonathan Broxton, Renck writes. Broxton will likely decide on his next team soon and Hawkins is drawing interest from multiple teams, according to Renck. Rafael Betancourt is set to become the closer if the Rockies trade Huston Street. Be sure to visit CloserNews.com for reliever-related fantasy news and analysis.

Broxton Likely To Sign Soon

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2:05pm: Broxton is down to a small handful of teams and will choose before the Winter Meetings next week, says ESPN's Jerry Crasnick in a series of tweets.  Crasnick says Broxton seeks a one-year deal to re-establish value, and about a dozen teams requested his medical records.  The Rangers were in on him before signing Joe Nathan, and the Rockies discussed him as an option if they trade Huston Street.  Crasnick thinks the Rays, Marlins, Red Sox, Twins, and Reds could be in the mix.

MONDAY, 12:13pm: A friend of Broxton tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that all things being equal, the reliever wants to be close to his Georgia home.  Sherman finds the Braves unlikely, but thinks the Marlins or Rays make sense.  Abbott told Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times this morning that a tentative deal should be reached in the next few days, but his client won't be returning to the Dodgers.

SUNDAY, 8:40pm: Jonathan Broxton's agent, BB Abbott, doesn't think his client will wind up signing with the Mets but does think that he could sign somewhere soon, tweets Mark Hale of the New York Post.  Broxton underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September and pitched just 12 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last season.

Last Sunday it was reported that more than ten teams are interested in the 27-year-old and the Blue Jays are among the teams in the mix.  Ben Nicholson-Smith took a look at Broxton's free agent stock in late September and predicted a one-year deal with plenty of incentives.

More Than Ten Teams Interested In Broxton

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Jonathan Broxton may have only thrown 12 2/3 innings last season, but his strong track record is keeping interest in him high, even in a stacked market for closers. SI.com's Jon Heyman tweets that more than 10 teams have inquired on Broxton and requested his medical records.

Last week, there were reports that the Blue Jays and 4-6 other teams were in on the lifelong Dodger, but that number appears to have risen. From 2006-2009, Broxton racked up 303 1/3 innings of 2.79 ERA ball while whiffing 11.8 hitters per nine innings. Broxton has slipped to a 4.32 ERA over his last two seasons though, and his once blistering fastball has dropped from the 96-98 mph range (97.8 in 2009) to the 94.1 mph he averaged in his small 2011 sample size.

Broxton's strong track record landed him 47th on MLBTR's Top 50 free agent list, letting him just barely sneak into our Free Agent Prediction contest. Broxton underwent arthroscopic elbow surgery in September but expects to begin throwing within the next two weeks. Ben Nicholson-Smith examined his free agent stock in late September and predicted a one-year deal with plenty of incentives.

Blue Jays, Others Interested In Broxton

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The Blue Jays and 4-6 other teams have shown interest in Jonathan Broxton and asked for his medical records, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). The Mets have not yet inquired on the 27-year-old free agent. Broxton had arthroscopic elbow surgery in September and plans to start throwing in two weeks.

It appears likely that Broxton will sign a one-year deal with performance incentives, as I explained in September when I examined his free agent stock. Broxton’s 2011 season ended in May after just 12 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA and nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (10).

East Notes: Sizemore, Mets, Phillies

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Some notes to pass along from the AL and NL East …

  • The Red Sox have contacted free agent outfielder Grady Sizemore, tweets Mike Silverman of the Boston Herald, and they are not thought to have spoken to free agent outfielder Carlos Beltran. Both players remain a long shot for Boston, according to Silverman, until the Red Sox figure out whether they want to re-sign David Ortiz.
  • The Mets will likely seek an affordable closer this offseason, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, who spoke to three stoppers who might fit that bill: Jonathan Broxton, Brad Lidge and Joe Nathan. Broxton's agent told Martino that Brox is seeking an incentive-laden one-year deal with perhaps a vesting option, and he's willing to pitch as a setup man or a closer. Lidge's agent said Lidge, too, is flexible with respect to his role, and Nathan said he is receptive to either a short- or long-term contract.
  • Now that the Phillies' agreement on a four-year contract with Ryan Madson has either fallen through or never actually materialized in the first place, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald opines that Jonathan Papelbon, like Madson, is unlikely to secure a contract of four or more years from Philly. Just reading the tea leaves, it looks like the fourth year will be the primary haggling point for Madson and Papelbon in their respective negotiations.

Free Agent Closers’ Usage

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The upcoming class of free agents figures to present an interesting study in the way teams are evaluating relievers these days. After Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, many of the most recognizable names are closers or relievers who have previously closed.

Modern analysis suggests it's foolish to invest heavily in relief pitchers due to their limited contributions and volatility in year-to-year production. But someone has to get those crucial late-inning outs, and the temptation for a team that thinks it's a contender to throw a lot of money at a guy who's coming off a year in which he posted a minuscule ERA or eye-popping strikeout rate is often too great.

Undoubtedly, suitors will use a variety of criteria to evaluate free-agent closers, one of which will be usage. Because usage can encompass so many things — innings, appearances, pitches, "high-stress" pitches, and so on — it's tough to say which is the most accurate reflection of a pitcher's workload; of course, this debate continues on for starters, too.

During the season, with the launch of CloserNews.com, we began keeping an eye on relievers who had pitched on three (and four) consecutive days, as that seems to be the breaking point for when most relievers must be rested. We've tallied that up here in a spreadsheet, along with a few other measures (standard and otherwise) of reliever usage, for the upcoming class of free-agent closers.

The objective here isn't to make any bold proclamations based on who threw the most innings; I may as well pen the inevitable mea culpa right now if it were. Rather, there are some interesting tidbits of note here, a few things to file away as these relievers ready themselves for free agency and teams prepare to bid.

  • Heath Bell and Francisco Cordero were the only two of this group to pitch on four consecutive days in 2011. Bell is the only one to do it twice.
  • Bell's abundance of pitches certainly seems to correspond with his dip in strikeout rate (7.32 K/9 in 2011 vs. 9.22 for career). Looks like he was having trouble putting away hitters, at least relative to his past performances.
  • Francisco Rodriguez paced the group by pitching on three consecutive days six times. 
  • Heavy usage is not unusual for K-Rod, though. He's pitched fewer than 65 innings only once in his nine full big league seasons, the red herring due to an off-field incident in 2010.
  • Info was culled from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Make Or Break Year: What Happened?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency.

We checked in on the players at the quarter pole of the campaign and again at its midway point. Let's do it again now that the regular season's over (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

Players whose seasons met or exceeded preseason expectations:

  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez had a strong season, hitting 26 homers and posting a .306/.361/.510 line as the Cubs' everyday third baseman.
  • Edwin Jackson - Jackson, a free agent after the season, completed 199 2/3 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 43.8% ground ball rate.
  • Bobby Abreu - Though Abreu's power dropped off, he managed a .353 on-base percentage and 21 steals. His 2012 option vested in July, so he should be back in Los Angeles for a fourth season with the Angels.
  • Carlos Beltran - A highly-coveted midsummer trade target, Beltran spent time on the DL with a strained right hand and wrist in August. His season line was .300/.385/.525, so agent Scott Boras will likely receive multiyear offers for the switch-hitter.
  • Jeff Francis - Francis pitched 183 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 4.5 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He wasn't spectacular, but he made his starts, quieting questions about the condition of his left shoulder.

Players who had disappointing seasons due to injury or poor performance:

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir spent time on the DL, made one appearance for the Angels and posted a 17.02 ERA with more walks than strikeouts at Triple-A before getting released. The 2011 season could not have gone much worse for the former first rounder.
  • Nate McLouth - McLouth's .228/.344/.333 line is better than it was last year and features a respectable on-base percentage, but he missed the second half with oblique and abdominal injuries.
  • Jonathan Broxton - It was a lost season for Broxton, who recently had surgery to remove loose bodies in his right elbow and is looking at an incentive-based one-year deal in free agency.
  • Grady Sizemore - Sizemore got off to a hot start, but finished the season with a .224/.285/.422 line. Knee and abdominal issues limited him to 71 games and there's no guarantee that the Indians will pick up his $9MM option for 2012.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya didn't pitch in a Major League game after undergoing elbow surgery in March.
  • Ryan Doumit - A sprained left ankle limited the 30-year-old to 77 games. When healthy, he posted a .303/.353/.477 line, but it doesn't appear likely that the Pirates will pick up his $7.25MM option.
  • Casey Blake - Blake hit .252/.342/.371 in 239 plate appearances and spent considerable time on the DL with a cervical strain. He had surgery in September and the Dodgers will decline his $6MM option for 2012.
  • Matt Capps - Capps saw his strikeout rate (4.7 K/9), ground ball rate (41.6%), average fastball velocity (92.9 mph) and innings total (65 2/3) drop this year, while his ERA rose nearly two runs to 4.25. At least he stayed healthy, unlike many on this list.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jonathan Broxton

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Jonathan Broxton made a name for himself as someone who could overpower just about any hitter with his upper-90s fastball. He has been sidelined with right arm problems since May 3rd and when he returns there’s a good chance we’ll see a different kind of pitcher.

"The days of Jonathan Broxton throwing 99 and 100 [mph] might be over," agent B.B. Abbott told Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times last week. "But I think he can reinvent himself. He's still going to be 93-97.”

Broxton, who has struck out 11.5 batters per nine innings in his career, will have to get healthy before he transitions into a different style of pitching. The 27-year-old underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow yesterday to remove a bone spur and loose bodies

It’s been a while since Broxton seemed like himself. He started the 2010 season in fine form and had a 0.83 ERA until June 27th, when he made 48 pitches and allowed four runs against the Yankees. Regardless of the impact that outing had on Broxton's health (Abbott told Hernandez that he doesn't blame the Dodgers), there's no debating what happened next. Broxton posted a 7.58 ERA in 29 2/3 more innings that year with nearly as many walks (23) as strikeouts (25). Then, Broxton’s 2011 season ended after just 12 2/3 innings with a 5.68 ERA and, once again, nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (10).

Next up for Broxton: injury rehab (he’s expected to start a throwing program in six to eight weeks) and his first career appearance on the free agent market. Broxton’s stock has dropped significantly in the last year-plus, so teams won’t look at him as a sure-thing closer when he tests the free agent market this offseason. He’ll look for the opportunity to compete for a closing job, though there are no guarantees.

"I think Jonathan is prepared to sign a one-year deal and reestablish his value," Abbott told Hernandez.

Could it be with the Dodgers, the organization that drafted him in 2002 and has employed him ever since? Abbott says it’s possible and that his client would enjoy pitching under manager Don Mattingly again in 2012. However, Mattingly told Hernandez that he doesn’t know whether Broxton would be a fit since it’s been so long since he appeared in a game.

"I don't even know how to answer that, really" the manager said.

That’s probably how lots of front offices feel about Broxton, a formerly dominant reliever who’s still young and powerful enough to reinvent himself successfully. It’s hard to imagine a multiyear deal for the two-time All-Star, though that seemed all but inevitable 15 months ago. Instead, a one-year, incentive-based deal seems likely for Broxton, as long as he recovers from yesterday’s operation and assures teams that his health has improved.

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