Jorge Polanco

AL Notes: White Sox, Rodón, Twins, Polanco, Arraez, Royals, Pérez

By TC Zencka | January 31, 2021 at 3:36pm CDT

Yesterday, it was somewhat surprising to see the White Sox come to terms with Carlos Rodón – their No. 3 overall pick turned non-tender. It’s boilerplate for teams to suggest “staying in touch” with their non-tenders, but it’s not often that someone of Rodón’s draft pedigree actually re-signs, especially for a team as all-in on 2021 as the White Sox. In most cases, the player is better off getting a fresh look with a different organization, but with new manager Tony La Russa bringing Ethan Katz to provide a fresh voice as the pitching coach, Rodón gets much of that same benefit without the hassle of a move, writes the Athletic’s James Fegan. Given the stakes of the season at hand, it’s safe to assume the White Sox think Rodón can hang in the rotation, giving him the inside track on landing the fifth starter spot behind Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, and Dylan Cease. Let’s circle up here in the AL Central…

Before signing perennial Gold Glove shortstop Andrelton Simmons, the Twins consulted with Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez about the move, tweets the Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman. Since both Polanco and Arraez stand to be displaced from their expected roles, the Twins were wise to secure their buy-in. Still, it’s a courtesy they didn’t have to observe. Polanco has been the team’s regular shortstop for most of the past four seasons. As for Arraez, projection systems from THE BAT X to Steamer to ZiPS forecast Arraez to lead the Majors in batting average, as pointed out on the Athletic’s Rates and Barrels podcast. While it’s not the 1990’s anymore, it’s still surprising to push a potential batting champ out of a regular role. That said, we tend to overrate the starting lineup on opening day, and underrate the impact and opportunity that exists for players in “bench” roles.
Now that J.T. Realmuto, James McCann, and (unofficially) Yadier Molina are all off the market, Salvador Pérez can begin to imagine his own free agency a year from now. The Kansas City staple hasn’t spoken with the Royals about an extension, though he’s on the record saying he’d like to retire a Royal, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. Pérez fell off the map while missing the 2019 season, but he bounced back in a big way during the shortened 2020 season by slashing .333/.353/.633 over 156 plate appearances. It’s easy to imagine the Royals quietly extending their MVP from the 2015 World Series, but if he has anywhere near as productive a season this year as last, there may be legitimate competition for his services. Lest we forget exactly how highly-regarded Pérez was as the game manager of the Royals’ competitive run from 2013 to 2017, he made six All-Star games, won three Silver Sluggers and five Gold Glove Awards. He’ll have wrapped his age-31 season when he hits free agency after 2021.

Shortstop Notes: Simmons, Story, Polanco

By TC Zencka | January 25, 2021 at 7:04pm CDT

The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

Speaking of free agents to be, the Rockies’ Trevor Story may be the one of the bunch most likely to hit free agency next summer. At present, Colorado remains unmoved in their position to neither trade nor extend their star shortstop, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). At times this winter, they have been open to the idea of moving Story, but the most likely outcome still appears to be Story playing out the 2021 season in Coors Field and then hitting the open market.
The Twins may be one of the mystery teams taking a look at Simmons. When asked by Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (video link) if Jorge Polanco would be their opening day shortstop, Twins GM Thad Levin said, “I think we look at our team and say Byron Buxton’s our opening day centerfielder, and Josh Donaldson’s our opening day third baseman – almost everyone else on our team has defensive flexibility. We view that as a huge boon to our team.” Wolfson notes that the Twins know the asking prices for free agent shortstops Simmons and Marcus Semien are keeping an eye on it.
To be clear, Levine in no way implied that Polanco would not be a big part of their team in 2021, only that they consider the defensive malleability of the current roster as one of their advantages – both in the market and on the ball field. By DRS, OAA, and UZR, Polanco has measured as a subpar defender at shortstop throughout his career, and the Twins may see value in moving him to second in order to upgrade the infield defense on the whole. More broadly, the Twins appear keen on making the “best” free agent deal they can find, regardless of position. If flexibility really is central to the Twins’ philosophy, that could help explain any reticence they might have about locking Nelson Cruz into the designated hitter spot . That said, it’s hard to imagine finding any player better at their position than Cruz was as their DH the last two seasons (163 wRC+).

Twins Notes: Middle Infield, Jeffers, Romero

By Steve Adams and Mark Polishuk | December 19, 2020 at 9:48am CDT

The Twins are receiving trade interest both in their upper-level middle infield prospects and in controllable players on their big league roster, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That’s not exactly earth-shattering news, given the manner in which teams covet affordable long-term pieces — particularly this offseason. Rosenthal still outlines a possibility of Minnesota moving someone like second baseman Luis Arraez in order to slide Jorge Polanco over to second base. Doing so could come as part of a trade package for a high-end shortstop (e.g. Trevor Story) or help in the rotation, with a free-agent shortstop then being brought in as a bridge to top prospect Royce Lewis.

We’ve written about the possibility of the Twins making middle-infield moves despite a clear hole here at MLBTR, and from my vantage point it doesn’t seem the Twins would even need to move Arraez to justify bringing in a shortstop upgrade if they wish. Polanco has never been a strong defensive shortstop, even prior to a pair of ankle surgeries, and would seem perfectly well suited to play the same super-utility role that was recently held by departing free agent Marwin Gonzalez. There are myriad avenues they could take, but a move at shortstop doesn’t seem outlandish for the Twins, even with Polanco in tow. He’s set to earn $4.33MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022 and $7.5MM in 2023 before the Twins have a pair of club options valued at $10.5MM and $12MM.

More out of Minneapolis/St. Paul…

The Twins announced earlier this week that catcher Ryan Jeffers underwent an offseason procedure to remove loose bodies from his right elbow. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the operation isn’t expected to delay Jeffers’ availability for the 2021 season, though, with manager Rocco Baldelli telling Miller and others that Jeffers is already nearly back up to speed. Jeffers, 23, jumped to the Majors to fill in for an injured Mitch Garver in 2020 and not only held his own but may have even cemented his spot on the 2021 roster. In 26 games, the 2018 second-rounder took 62 plate appearances and posted a .273/.355/.436 slash with three homers. Jeffers did skip Triple-A entirely due to the lack of a minor league season, though, so the Twins could conceivably add a veteran backup if the hope is to get him a bit more seasoning. Doing so would also afford Jeffers everyday reps rather than have him serve in a more limited role behind Garver.
Minnesota’s decision to release Fernando Romero yesterday (and Romero quickly signing with the Yokohama BayStars) was examined by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, who reports that Romero didn’t draw much trade attention from MLB teams. The Twins simply weren’t certain whether Romero would be able to pitch in the United States after visa issues prevented him from entering the country in 2020, and as president of baseball ops Derek Falvey said, “it felt like given all the circumstances around this year and going forward, plus his desired pursuit of Japan, it kind of felt like the best combination.”

Twins Rumors: Cruz, Rotation, Shortstop, Arbitration, Payroll

By Steve Adams | December 4, 2020 at 12:50pm CDT

The Twins made a one-year offer to Nelson Cruz back in October, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports, but at least for the moment, that offer is no longer on the table. The two sides both still hope to work out a reunion, but because Cruz is still seeking a two-year deal, he intends to wait further clarity on the status of the universal designated hitter before agreeing to terms. It’s a sensible approach for Cruz, whose market in the American League is somewhat limited by the number of clubs with aging veterans, dedicated DHs and/or budgetary constraints. A universal DH would open several new pathways for the slugger to land that two-year pact he apparently seeks.

Some more notes out of the Twin Cities…

In the latest edition of his podcast, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports that the Twins have some interest in former Indians ace Corey Kluber (audio link, Twins chatter beginning at 8:07). That’s not a huge surprise given that president of baseball operations Derek Falvey was in Cleveland’s front office when Kluber was acquired from the Padres and broke out as a star. Elsewhere on the rotation front, Wolfson notes that the Twins are not among the most aggressive suitors for Jake Odorizzi to this point. Odorizzi would prefer to return to Minnesota, all things being equal, but is receiving stronger interest from other teams. Wolfson adds that the Twins had interest in Mike Minor before he landed with the Royals but weren’t willing to go near the surprising two-year, $18MM deal he landed in Kansas City.
Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic break down the Twins’ options at shortstop this winter, ranging from adding a veteran backup in the Freddy Galvis mold to a more aggressive pursuit of a starting shortstop, which would push Jorge Polanco into a super-utility role (an approach outlined in our Twins Offseason Outlook a couple weeks back). With Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons on the market, one could craft an argument that any fit the Twins. Polanco has had two ankle surgeries over the past two years and was never a premium defender at short, but as a shortstop/second baseman/third baseman, he could provide value at a number of spots. I’d point out that Simmons has had major ankle injuries in both of the past two seasons, however, so signing him comes with some of the same risks associated with Polanco. The Angels have filled their shortstop vacancy with Jose Iglesias, while each of the Reds, Phillies and A’s have (to varying extents) signified that they’re reducing payroll. That could create an opportunity for the Twins to enter the market if they choose.
Also at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal spoke with a number of agents who praised the Twins for their approach to arbitration this winter. The arbitration system is generally archaic, but it is particularly ill-equipped to contextualize the results of a 60-game season. Minnesota is the only club that has entirely wrapped up its arbitration class already, and several player reps tell Rosenthal that the Twins deserve credit for being willing to find a middle ground rather early rather than drawing a hard line to maximize savings. “It took both parties acknowledging the difficulties of a COVID-19 season and the reality that the traditional arbitration matrix was not entirely relevant this offseason,” agent Mark Rodgers, who represents Taylor Rogers, told Rosenthal. Falvey told Rosenthal the Twins “wanted to be creative” prior to the tender deadline. “[Agents] feel no different than we do about the uniqueness of this year, so we decided this was the best course of action,” said Falvey.
Certainly, the Twins’ approach to arbitration will create some good will with agents moving forward, but the team also stands to benefit. Few other clubs in baseball right now can project their 2021 payroll more accurately than the Twins, which gives Falvey, GM Thad Levine, the rest of the front office and owner Jim Pohlad more clarity as to their spending capacity in the coming months. Minnesota has plenty of work to do this winter, with several relievers departing, a need in the rotation and Cruz on the market. However, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark noted in analyzing this year’s slate of non-tenders that every executive from another club with whom he spoke for the piece expects the Twins to spend this winter. Minnesota’s payroll checks in just shy of $92MM right now — well short of last year’s full-season Opening Day mark of $133MM. They probably won’t spend back up to that level, but it does appear there’s some room for additions.

Jorge Polanco Undergoes Ankle Surgery

By Connor Byrne | October 12, 2020 at 12:42pm CDT

OCT. 12: Polanco had surgery last week to remove “a mild bone spur and small bone chip on his right ankle,” Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets. The Twins expect Polanco to be fine for spring training.

OCT. 1: The Twins’ season came to an unceremonious end Wednesday with a two-game elimination against the Astros. The back-to-back AL Central champions could now see one of their key players go under the knife, as president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said Thursday that shortstop Jorge Polanco may need surgery as a result of right ankle problems, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic and Phil Miller of the Star Tribune were among those to report.

“He battled every day, but he was not playing at full strength for a good chunk of the year,” Falvey said of Polanco, who missed just five of the Twins’ 60 regular-season games.

It was only a year ago that Polanco broke out as one of the majors’ finest infielders, slashing .295/.356/.485 with 22 home runs and 4.0 fWAR in 704 plate appearances. This year wasn’t nearly as successful – Polanco, 27, hit .258/.304/.354 with four HRs over 226 PA – but it appears his health (or lack thereof) played a role in his statistical decline.

Notably, Polanco underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last November, though it doesn’t appear that procedure erased his issues. Falvey said the Twins “need to assess whether or not there is something else going on there that we need to address.”

How The Delayed Season Impacts The Twins

By Steve Adams | April 3, 2020 at 11:24am CDT

All 30 big league clubs are waiting to see whether a 2020 season will be played at all, but assuming a season is able to take place in some capacity, the prolonged delay will impact some clubs more than others. We’ve already run through the Yankees, Angels, Phillies and Athletics in this regard.

Turning to the Twins, who’ll be looking to defend their first division crown since 2010, they’ll suddenly have the opportunity to get nearly a full season out of one of their most important pitching pickups of the winter: left-hander Rich Hill.

The 40-year-old Hill underwent “primary repair” surgery on his left ulnar collateral ligament over the winter and inked a one-year, $3MM deal with Minnesota (plus $9.5MM of available incentives), knowing that he’d miss the first few months of the season. Primary repair is a less invasive alternative to Tommy John surgery that can be pursued depending on the extent of the tear and its location within the ligament; Hill’s injury met the requisite criteria, and he was targeting a June or July return to the mound. It’s now possible he’ll be ready to join the Twins’ rotation early in a truncated season — if not from the very outset.

Manager Rocco Baldelli gave an update on Hill’s status in a recent interview with Steve Phillips and Eduardo Perez on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, suggesting that Hill is rehabbing and throwing and has “done very well — about as well as you could ask for.” To this point, there’s no reason to think his initial rehab timetable needs adjustment.

Hill wasn’t the ace that many Twins fans hoped to see the front office add this winter, but on a per-inning basis he remains highly effective. The durability concerns with the veteran southpaw are very real even if his recovery from offseason surgery goes as planned, but there’s no denying how good Hill has been recently when able to take the mound. In 58 2/3 innings last season, the lefty pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 11.0 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 — despite pitching part of the season with the ligament damage that necessitated his surgery. Hill only managed 327 regular-season innings over the past three years, but he logged a 3.30 ERA with just under 11 punchouts per nine frames in that time and also chipped in 37 innings of 2.43 ERA ball in the playoffs.

The postponement of Opening Day not only gives Hill more time to get up to speed — it also should allow the Twins to more easily manage his innings. It’s likely that rosters will be expanded at least early on, which should give Baldelli some extra relievers if the club wants to limit Hill to three to five innings per outing to begin the season. One of the Twins’ previously projected fifth starter candidates — Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe or non-roster invitee Jhoulys Chacin — could potentially be paired with Hill in a tandem or piggyback type of arrangement.

Additional downtime will also allow the Twins to ensure that several key players are at full strength to begin the year. None of Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Marwin Gonzalez was expected to open the 2020 campaign on the injured list, but each is recovering from surgery. Buxton went under the knife last September to repair a torn labrum and was only just about to get into Grapefruit League games when Spring Training was suspended. Baldelli has said Buxton would’ve been ready for Opening Day, but there shouldn’t be any doubt about his shoulder’s well-being now.

Polanco, meanwhile, underwent surgery to repair an ankle injury that dogged him throughout the 2019 season. He appeared fine at the plate, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 long balls, 40 doubles and seven triples, but it’s possible that the nagging ankle issue contributed to Polanco’s lackluster defensive ratings and his lack of stolen bases (just four). Gonzalez, meanwhile, underwent a debridement of the patellar tendon in his right knee over the winter and was a bit behind schedule in camp. He should be fully up to speed once play resumes.

There are also possible implications for suspended right-hander Michael Pineda, who still has 39 games remaining on a reduced 60-game ban issued late last year. That suspension will still be in effect if the 2020 season is able to be played, and there’s been no indication that it’d be shortened or prorated to reflect the reduction of games on this year’s schedule. If the season is canceled entirely, however, ESPN’s Jeff Passan has previously reported that drug suspension wouldn’t carry into the 2021 campaign. Pineda would seemingly be able to join the rotation from day one.

The hope in Minnesota is that by the end of whatever season we get, Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Hill and Pineda will combine to make the bulk of the starts. With six starters, plus the trio of Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe on hand as depth options (and perhaps Chacin as well), the Twins should be well-equipped to handle regular doubleheaders and fewer off-days in the accelerated regular-season schedule.

In a worst-case scenario that sees the season postponed entirely, the Twins could see holdovers Odorizzi, Gonzalez, Nelson Cruz and Trevor May all reach free agency. Meanwhile, Hill, Bailey, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila could depart without ever formally suiting up in a game that counts.

Twins Notes: Donaldson, Polanco, Sano

By Steve Adams | January 20, 2020 at 11:33am CDT

The Twins’ initial four-year offer to Josh Donaldson was for $84MM, per Phil Miller and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Shortly thereafter, the team grew pessimistic about signing him, as reports that Donaldson was seeking a $110MM guarantee surfaced. Minnesota’s addition of a fifth-year option with a huge buyout ($16MM option, $8MM buyout) not only boosted the contract’s guarantee to $92MM but also increased the possibility of Donaldson eventually reaching the $100MM mark, which was important to his camp. That increase, of course, also helped the Twins to outbid the rest of the field, which included the Braves, Nationals and, to a lesser extent, the Dodgers and Rangers.

Donaldson himself chatted with Alison Mastrangelo of Channel 2 WSB News in Atlanta about his decision to choose the Twins over the Braves (Twitter links, with video). “Ultimately it wasn’t in the same realm for me [financially],” Donaldson said. “This is going to be my 13th year in the big leagues. I’ve been on a lot of one-year contracts, and the Twins were in a position to where they could offer me a lengthy deal where I thought it was right for me and my family.”

The third baseman called the opportunity to suit up for the Braves, who he grew up watching a “dream come true,” but added that Atlanta wound up “offering me late — like a day or so before.” A return simply “didn’t work out,” Donaldson summed. On the Twins, he expressed excitement over joining a contender with a deep lineup and noted that he’s had success hitting at Minneapolis’ Target Field throughout his career.

Jorge Polanco Undergoes Arthroscopic Surgery On Right Ankle

By Mark Polishuk | November 28, 2019 at 2:14pm CDT

Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco is expected to need six weeks of recovery after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle last Friday, according to an announcement from the team. The surgery was intended to fix what was described as a chronic issue for Polanco, and the All-Star should be fully recovered by the start of Spring Training.

Polanco was a major part of the Twins’ 101-win season, hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 homers over 704 plate appearances. Only six players in all of baseball racked up more PA than Polanco in 2019, and only 35 players appeared in more than Polanco’s 153 games played. Though his defense was something of a mixed bag depending on the metric (a -15.7 UZR/150 but +1 Defensive Runs Saved), Polanco still an immensely valuable player, posting 4.0 fWAR for Minnesota.

This career year was just about the best possible rebound for Polanco, who had something to prove following a 2018 season that saw him receive an 80-game PED suspension. Polanco’s performance immediately made the Twins look wise for locking up the shortstop on a five-year, $25.75MM extension last February. That deal also contains a pair of club options ($10.5MM for 2024, $12MM for 2025) that could keep Polanco in the Twin Cities through his age-31 season.

Super-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez and infielder Ehire Adrianza are on hand for the Twins if Polanco does need any extra recovery time, though by all accounts this appears to be a fairly minor surgery. Polanco didn’t appear too bothered by his ankle problem during his very durable 2019, though he did post only a .706 OPS over 102 PA in September. He rebounded for a .273/.429/.545 slash line over 14 PA in the ALDS, as Polanco was one of the few Twins who performed at the plate during the club’s three-game sweep at the Yankees’ hands.

AL Notes: Twins, Astros, Gurriel, Angels

By George Miller | October 5, 2019 at 2:27pm CDT

Although the Twins’ have enjoyed a rapid turnaround from 78 wins a season ago to 101 wins and a division title this year, that breakout has roots tracing back to 2009, writes Dan Hayes of The Athletic. A decade ago, the Twins landed a transformative class of international amateurs—Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco—that blossomed into franchise cornerstones and 2019 stars. At the time, the $4.65MM the team doled out to land the three 16-year-olds was uncharacteristic for the Twins franchise, which had largely been a non-factor in the international scene; the team had no academy in the Dominican Republic and had virtually no connections with the players’ pseudo-agents. That made it especially difficult to land Sano, a coveted prospect who commanded a $3.15MM bonus and captured the attention of nearly every MLB club. On the other hand, there was less competition for Kepler, a German-born prospect, and Polanco, a scrawny teenager who lacked the projectability of Sano. Of course, those signings have delivered immense value to a team that has ridden Polanco, Kepler, and Sano to the franchise’s first division title since 2010. According to Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, those three have been the 2019 Twins’ first-, third-, and seventh-most valuable players, combining to contribute 12.8 wins of value to the team.

At age 35, Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel could be playing himself into another contract with Houston’s club, writes The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Gurriel has enjoyed a career year at an age where he should be declining, perhaps a reflection of his acclimation to the game in the United States. The 2020 season will be the last under his current contract, a five-year, $47MM deal inked prior to 2016, when he defected to the U.S. as one of Cuba’s most accomplished players. He’s by no means the star of a stacked lineup in Houston—he most often slots into the sixth spot for the Astros—but he has delivered solid offensive value, thanks in part to an in-season mechanical change, a focus on lifting the ball, and a heightened focus on preparation.
With eliminated teams beginning to consider offseason decisions, the Angels will have to decide whether to protect 26-year-old infielder Jose Rojas or expose him to the Rule 5 Draft. He posted career-best numbers at Triple-A this year, slugging 31 home runs and a .293/.362/.577 batting line. Mike DiGiovanna of Baseball America takes a look at Rojas’s case, pointing out that teams around baseball are having some difficulty tuning their evaluation of Triple-A players to the drastically altered offensive environment at the level. Since Triple-A leagues introduced the MLB-used baseball for the 2019 season, power numbers have universally spiked in Triple-A. With the reliability of raw home run numbers in question, DiGiovanna points out that teams are increasingly reliant on their scouts’ eyes in their valuation of Triple-A players.

The Twin Gems Of The Spring Extensions

By Jeff Todd | May 28, 2019 at 12:28pm CDT

The dizzying run of extensions this spring drew quite a lot of attention. Several contracts were pointed to as being notably team friendly. Others were of obvious importance because they involved superstars entering walk years.

The sheer volume of transactions tended to obscure the fine details of each particular decision. And several of the extensions were all but buried in the news. When the Twins set up the mics to announce extensions for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler, the full rush of deals hadn’t yet occurred. But the moves came at the same time that star hurlers Aaron Nola and Luis Severino were signing on the dotted line, drawing much of the attention away from a Minnesota club that was coming off of a middling 2018 season and hadn’t been quite as bold as might have been anticipated in free agency. And the flood of later signings ensured that the Twins’ deals would receive relatively little attention.

Frankly, given the costs involved, those signings did not represent an especially monumental moment for the franchise. The Joe Mauer contract, this was not. The Twins did not strike deals with top young starter Jose Berrios or high-end outfielder Eddie Rosario, both of whom would likely have commanded bigger dollars. Better-known former top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano weren’t really in position for extensions after rough seasons.

So, did we sleep on the Twins? From a team perspective, the roster upside was obvious, but nobody foresaw a 36-17 start to the year and a ten-game lead over the sagging Indians. And what of the extensions they signed? Any sober examination of the Polanco and Kepler contracts at the time of signing would have noted the potential upside but settled on relatively modest expectations. With a third of the season in the books, both deals look like slam dunks.

Let’s look first at Polanco. When the Twins promised him $25.75MM over five years, they were obviously quite comfortable with the risks and had expectations of excess value. But it’s hard to imagine they anticipated the sort of monster production they’ve received from the 25-year-old shortstop.

When MLBTR’s Steve Adams pointed to Jose Ramirez as a comp, he was thinking primarily of the latter’s contract — not his ensuing breakout. As it turns out, Polanco has followed Ramirez in converting contact ability into power.

This can’t be called a total surprise. As Adams wrote in assessing the Polanco deal, “if he can tap into a bit more power, there’s perhaps room to take his game to another offensive level.” Certainly, the Twins felt there was something more in the tank after a strong but hardly elite showing in 2018. The stated expectation was that the “best is yet to come” and that Polanco would “continue to develop and grow.”

But that was all projection and feel-good press conference talk. Did anyone really think Polanco would turn on the jets in this manner? He’s now slashing .332/.404/.584 with nine home runs in 228 plate appearances. Better yet, he has boosted his walk rate up to 10.5% and hasn’t even needed to add swing and miss (14.9% strikeout rate) to boost his pop. There’s likely a bit of regression in store, with a .363 BABIP and decent spread in Statcast results/expectations (.418 wOBA vs. .382 xwOBA). But the arrow is obviously pointed upward.

It’s easy to see how the contract could become the sort of bargain that helps fuel a lengthy contention window. One need only look at Ramirez. The Twins had ample control over Polanco already, as he was only a 2+ service-class, non-Super Two player. (He’d have had more but for an ill-advised PED suspension.) Because they made the deal before arbitration and in advance of a true breakout, the Twins can control Polanco through the 2025 season for a total cost of just $47MM, with the final two seasons coming via option ($10.5MM/$1MM buyout, $12.5MM/$750K buyout).

Things are looking quite nice on the Kepler side of things as well. He inked a five-year, $35MM deal. The calculus was different from the get-go in his case, though the decision to make the deal was also driven by a belief that he was primed to improve. Kepler had already reached arbitration as a Super Two, agreeing to a $3.125MM salary with the organization earlier in the winter. With three more arb trips to build from that baseline, and a track record of solid home run production, Kepler was able to command a higher payday.

In some respects, this was the riskier deal for the team. True, he had shown plenty of skill: the 26-year-old had already cracked twenty long balls, turned in three seasons of .180+ isolated power, and made great strides in his plate discipline in 2018 (11.6% walk rate vs. 15.7% strikeout rate). He’s also regarded as a quality defensive outfielder. At the same time, it took a bit of a leap of faith to entrust this kind of cash in a corner outfielder that hadn’t yet turned in a full season of league-average production by measure of wRC+.

So far, so good. Kepler has already launched a dozen long balls in 211 plate appearances. He’s maintaining that strong K/BB blend. And he’s up to a .281 batting average on a .272 batting average on balls in play — a reversal of some poor fortune from 2018 (.224 batting average, .236 BABIP). Statcast credits him with more hard contact (44.5%) and a loftier launch angle (17.2 degrees) than ever before.

Kepler’s early showing surely makes the Twins feel even better about their commitment than they did at the time. Beyond the $35MM guaranteed, the Twins have another year of control at just $10MM ($1MM buyout).

Will Polanco and Kepler keep this up for the long haul? Or even the duration of the present season? That’s hard to say. A fair but conservative estimate would anticipate some regression. But it’d also recognize a very real increase in the present and anticipated future on-field value of these players.

While these contracts largely fell through the cracks at the time they were struck, they now look to be among the best buys of the spring. The team deserves credit for rightly identifying these targets. But it’s also a credit to Polanco and Kepler. They accepted reasonably fair deals, based upon their prior track records, then set to work turning those contracts into potential bargains. As for the Twins organization, these deals didn’t change the near-term complexion of the roster in the least. But they sure do help brighten the long-term outlook.

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