Rebound Candidate: Kyle Freeland
If you’re of the belief that a pitcher can’t thrive despite calling the hitters’ haven known as Coors Field home, think again. Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland did so in 2018, a year in which he finished fourth in National League Cy Young voting. He pitched to an excellent 2.85 ERA/3.67 FIP across 202 1/3 innings that season, giving the Rockies and the rest of the baseball world the impression that the club, long starved for solid starting pitching, had a front-line one-two punch on its hands in him and German Marquez. While Marquez did continue to produce last year, Freeland declined to a dramatic extent – no doubt one of the reasons the Rockies went from a playoff team to a bottom feeder.
Things went so awry for Freeland in 2019 that he spent a sizable portion of the season in the minors. The Rockies demoted Freeland to Triple-A Albuquerque on May 31 and didn’t recall him until the middle of July. Freeland wasn’t remotely effective during his time last year in the minors, where he pitched to an 8.80 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 29 innings. He was better in the majors, but that’s not saying much. In fact, it’s hard to find a pitcher who went downhill faster from 2018 to last season than Freeland, who logged a 6.73 ERA/5.99 FIP across 104 1/3 frames as a Rockie.
So what happened? Home runs, for one. The HR bug bit many a pitcher during what was a historically power-happy season. Freeland didn’t elude the long ball, as his HR-to-fly ball rate climbed from 8.5 percent during his Cy Young-contending effort two years ago to 21.7 last season. And Freeland, whose typical fastball sits in the 92 mph range, has never been much for strikeouts, but that was especially the case in 2019. He struck out fewer than seven batters per nine and ranked 12th last among all starters who threw at least 100 innings in strikeout-walk percentage (8.5). The fastball betrayed Freeland, who – according to FanGraphs – dominated with that pitch during his dream ’18. Last season was a different story, though, as Freeland’s heater ranked near the basement of the league in efficacy.
To make matters worse, Freeland wasn’t any kind of Statcast favorite. Rather, he finished below average in just about all of its categories. To list a couple examples, his expected weighted on-base average rose by 62 points from the previous year, while his hard-hit rate jumped by almost 11 percent.
“I didn’t feel confident at all,” Freeland admitted to Shane Monaghan of 5280 Magazine in regards to 2019. “I was just hoping not to give up runs.”
Freeland has since adjusted his delivery, which he and the Rockies hope will do the trick.
“You aren’t going to see the long pause,” manager Bud Black told Monaghan. “It will be a free-flowing, momentum-building delivery.”
It’s quite possible we’ll never see the Cy Young-type version of Freeland again, though it may also be fair to give him the benefit of the doubt. The pedigree’s there (Freeland was the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft), he’s still just 26 years old and even before his brilliant showing two seasons back, he fared well as a rookie in 2017. Nobody knows whether there will even be Major League Baseball this year, but if there is, Freeland will enter the campaign as one of the game’s most intriguing bounce-back candidates.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rockies Notes: Monfort, Murphy, Hilliard
The Rockies lost 91 games in 2019, and they haven’t signed a single major league free agent, but Chairman and CEO Dick Monfort predicts a 94-win season in Colorado, per The Denver Post’s Kyle Newman. That would be a franchise high for the Rockies, who thrice have won 90 games but never exceeded 92. And of course, they have yet to capture their first NL West crown. Let’s stick with the Rockies…
- Monfort cites the 2007 to 2009 Rockies as precedent for his projection, who sandwiched a pair of playoff teams around an 88-loss unit in 2008. The core of the Rox’ 91-win team from 2018 remains largely intact (for now) with Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon leading the offense, while Jon Gray, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland front the rotation. Of course, questions abound for that group, from performance to health to Arenado’s recent comments about the team. The Rockies were a top-10 unit by measure of runs scored even in 2019, so a turnaround isn’t impossible. Significant, wholesale improvements from the pitching staff would have to figure heavily in a turnaround after the staff ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.58 ERA in 2019.
- Daniel Murphy will be a key player to watch in 2020, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Murphy seemed like a great fit for Coors Field heading into 2019, but an injury slowed the start of his season and the offensive numbers never really surfaced. Murphy doesn’t bring a plus glove at first base, so his contribution needs to come with the bat. A .279/.328/.452 line was his lowest mark across the board since 2015.
- Of the young players, Sam Hilliard has a chance to break into the everyday lineup, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The lefty masher put up a 1.006 OPS in 27 games last year, an impressive audition. He’s a candidate to take the strong end of a platoon with Ian Desmond in left. Hilliard will have to prove he can make enough contact to see his name on the lineup card daily, but with his combination of speed and power, the physical gifts are there.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the National League’s settlements in this post and are maintaining a separate one for American League settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Rockies have an agreement in place with righty Jon Gray, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (via Twitter). It’s a $5.6MM deal, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
- Outfielder Tommy Pham has struck a $7.9MM pact with the Padres, who acquired him at the outset of the offseason, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Other Friars striking deals, per an update from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, include Zach Davies ($5.25MM) and Matt Strahm ($1.4MM).
- The Nationals announced that they’ve avoided arbitration with Trea Turner. It’s a $7.45MM agreement, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter), right in range of the $7.5MM projection.
- The Mets are in agreement with a laundry list of players. Right-handers Marcus Stroman ($12MM) and Noah Syndergaard ($9.7MM) were the top earners, per reports from MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). Both come in close to their projected values of $11.8M and $9.9MM, respectively. The Mets also have a $5.1MM deal with reliever Edwin Diaz, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). He entered the offseason projected at the $7.0MM level but will fall well shy of that. Despite an outstanding overall track record, Diaz’s platform season was a dud and obviously created some risk in a hearing for his side. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo will play for $2.175MM in his first season of arb eligibility, landing well over the $1.7MM that the model projected. Southpaw Steven Matz, meanwhile, lands a $5MM deal, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). That’s $300K shy of his projected amount. Relievers Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo will earn $1.225MM and $2MM, respectively, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (Twitter links). Slugger Michael Conforto will earn $8.0MM, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (via Twitter), which is notably south of the $9.2MM that we projected. And fellow outfielder Jake Marisnick checks in a just over 10% north of his projection at $3,312,500, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.
- Star reliever Kirby Yates receiveds a $7,062,500 salary from the Padres, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. He tops the $6.5MM that MLBTR projected by a solid margin, reflecting just how exceptional he was in 2019.
- The Marlins will pay recently acquired infielder Jonathan Villar a $8.2MM salary, per MLB.com’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That’s a far sight shy of the $10.4MM that the MLBTR system projected, perhaps reflecting a more difficult path to the bigger number through recent comparables. The club also had some added leverage here since Villar would likely not fare terribly well on the open market if cut loose at this stage or later. (Unless this is a guaranteed deal, Villar could still be jettisoned, with the club paying just a fraction of the settled amount.) The Fish also have also agreed to terms with lefty Adam Conley (for $1.525MM, per MLB Network Radio’s Craig Mish, via Twitter) and righty Jose Urena (for $3.75MM, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, on Twitter).
- Righty Vince Velasquez will pitch for $3.6MM this year with the Phillies, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly (via Twitter). Fellow hurler Jose Alvarez will earn $2.95MM, per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter).
- The Rockies have an agreement with lefty Kyle Freeland, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll earn $2.875MM. Outfielder David Dahl takes home $2.475MM, Heyman adds on Twitter. The former had projected at $2.4MM and the latter at $3.0MM.
- Pirates hurler Joe Musgrove will receive $2.8MM, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter links). Fellow righty Keone Kela will earn a reported $3.725MM. Both players had projected at $3.4MM, but land well to either side of that number. Infielder Adam Frazier also has a deal at $2.8MM, per Mackey (via Twitter).
- Righty Anthony DeSclafani will earn $5.9MM from the Reds, according to Robert Murray (via Twitter). He had projected at $5.2MM. Backstop Curt Casali will earn $1.4625MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter link). And reliever Matt Bowman takes down $865K, Murray adds on Twitter.
- The Dodgers have worked out a non-typical deal with righty Ross Stripling, Heyman tweets. He’ll get an up-front signing bonus of $1.5MM, which he’ll receive in the next week, and then earn $600K for the campaign to come. Stripling had projected to earn $2.3MM on the year.
- Cardinals righty John Gant will earn $1.3MM after settling with the club. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch first tweeted that a deal was in place, while Murray had the number on Twitter. That comes in just under his $1.4MM projection.
Earlier Settlements
Injury Notes: Suzuki, Adams, Lowe, Freeland
Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki returned to the D.C. lineup tonight for the first time in nearly two weeks, logging a pinch-hit, bases-clearing double in the 10th inning of a game against the Marlins. Though he’s back to swinging a stick for the Wild Card-contending Nats, it isn’t as if he’s altogether healed from the elbow issues that first sidelined him on Sept. 7. As he told Mark Zuckerman of MASN Sports, Suzuki is simply going to have to play through pain if he wishes to help his club into October. “Shoot, I’m 35 years old. I’m going to be 36 (on Oct. 4),” the catcher said. “If I get hurt, knock on wood, it’s not going to be just a little rest thing…At the same time, I don’t know how many times I’m going to have the opportunity to get to the playoffs.”
If Suzuki’s ongoing presence is a question of pain tolerance, the Nats should be sure to have plenty of aspirin on hand for the veteran backstop. After all, his .260/..319/.473 line (100 wRC+) through 301 plate appearances this year is vastly superior to the output offered by teammate Yan Gomes in 2019 (.221/.316/.370 slash in 329 plate appearances).
More notes about athletes dealing with their own share of September pain…
- As noted by Greg Johns of MLB.com, Mariners reliever Austin Adams crumpled into a heap after tweaking his knee while covering first base in tonight’s game against the Orioles (link). Adams, 28, had to be helped off of the field by trainers. After kicking around the Angels and Nationals organizations since being drafted in 2012, Adams had appeared to find a comfortable home with Seattle in 2019. In his first prolonged big league exposure, the righty has logged a whopping 15.06 K/9 rate in 31.2 innings this year, with solid ERA (3.98) and FIP (3.12) indicators.
- Rays youngster Brandon Lowe was back in uniform and manning second base today–albeit only in a sim game. Still, manager Kevin Cash thinks the rookie is almost ready to return from a left quad strain that has sidelined him since being injured in a rehab appearance in late July. “He’s close,” Cash told Juan Toribio of MLB.com (link). “I saw a video of him going first to third, and he’s running a lot better. I’m not going to say he’s back to his normal speed yet — he’s going to have to manage that whenever he does get activated — but we’re encouraged that the at-bats have been really good, the defense has been really good, it’s just running and getting out of the box and us having enough trust in him that he can manage that.” Lowe hasn’t played since July 2nd, when leg issues first befell him. Because Lowe is on the 60-day IL, the team would have to clear a 40-man spot to facilitate his return.
- Rockies starter Kyle Freeland has been activated by the club and started tonight’s game against the Dodgers. Logging two scoreless innings in something of an “opener” capacity this evening, Freeland penned something of a modestly positive chapter in what has been an otherwise forgettable 2019 saga. With a sky-high 6.98 ERA (6.13 FIP) in 99.1 innings entering tonight’s game, Freeland has been a chief culprit in Colorado’s ’19 pitching woes. Interestingly, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post penned a column today examining baseball’s offensive explosion in 2019, citing Freeland as one player who will be difficult to evaluate this offseason in part because of the possible “juiced” quality of this year’s baseball (link). Said Saunders: “In my opinion, the “juiced baseball” really hurt Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland this season. I’m not making excuses for Freeland’s 6.98 ERA and 25 home runs served up in 20 starts, because he was clearly off his game and his mechanics were out of whack. But I also think it’s true that Freeland became a little gun shy because his slider wasn’t breaking as it should and he gave up a number of cheap home runs.” There may be some merit to this thinking. Freeland posted a 22.9% HR/FB rate this season while home run records were shattered league-wide.
NL Injury Notes: Baez, Weaver, Brewers, Rockies
The Cubs will evaluate shortstop Javier Baez by week’s end to see when he’ll be able to start rehab activity, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. The club has been without Baez for just about all of September because of a hairline fracture in his left thumb, and it’s likely the injury will prevent the star from suiting up again in the regular season as Chicago tries to at least earn a wild-card berth. The Baez-less Cubs have been turning to recently recalled youngster Nico Hoerner at short, and fortunately for them, he has begun his career in outstanding fashion. Thanks in part to Hoerner’s contributions, the Cubs are 6-2 dating back to his Sept. 9 debut.
More injury updates from around the National League…
- Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver may be a “couple days” from returning to a major league mound, per Zach Buchanan of The Athletic. Weaver threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday as he works back from forearm and ulnar collateral ligament issues that have shelved him since late May. The offseason acquisition, who joined the D-backs via their Paul Goldschmidt trade with the Cardinals, had been amid a stellar campaign before landing on the shelf. Weaver owns a 3.03 ERA/3.11 FIP with 9.82 K/9 and 2.02 BB/9 in 62 1/3 innings on the season. While Arizona’s playoff hopes have faded this year, the hope is Weaver and fellow young righty Zac Gallen will be among those to help drive the team back into contention in 2020.
- Brewers righty reliever Corey Knebel is “continuing to make progress” in his recovery from the Tommy John procedure he underwent in March, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel relays. Knebel expects to return to throwing from a mound when spring training rolls around, per Haudricourt. It’s all the more impressive on the Brewers’ part that they’re in the thick of the wild-card hunt without having received anything from Knebel, who was one of their best bullpen options from 2017-18.
- Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is nearing a late-season return, according to Nick Groke of The Athletic. A strained groin has kept Freeland from taking a big league mound since Aug. 20, but he’ll be able to make two more starts (albeit at just two to three innings per appearance) this year, Groke notes. Freeland will attempt to end his surprisingly dismal season on a high note when he suits up again. One of the NL’s premier pitchers just a year ago, Freeland has been just the opposite in 2019. The 26-year-old has logged a 6.98 ERA/6.13 FIP across 99 1/3 frames, and his struggles led the Rockies to demote him to the minors earlier in the season.
NL Notes: Hiura, BA Awards, Freeland
With a .301/.369/.571 line, 16 home runs, and nine stolen bases in his first 295 plate appearances in the majors, Brewers infielder Keston Hiura has this season put on prominent display the skills that made him a top-10 pick in the 2017 Rule IV draft. Today comes word that the UC Irvine product is a little closer to putting those tools to further use, as Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets that Hiura did a full workout (including batting practice) before logging one at-bat in today’s game against the Cardinals (link). Hiura has been out with a left hamstring strain since Aug. 31. Though the club certainly awaits his return with eagerness, they have been doing just fine for themselves in Hiura’s absence. Saturday’s win brings their record to 8-2 over their last ten contests. They are now just 1.0 games back of the Cubs for the last Wild Card play-in spot.
More notes from around the NL…
- Baseball America has released their annual “Classification All-Stars” list, in which they name their All-Stars, MVPs, and Pitchers of the Year for each minor league level irrespective of league. Notably, NL prospects took home Pitcher of the Year honors at every minor league level except Double-A (a level which Tigers farmhand Matt Manning trounced in 2019). The complete list of garlanded NL pitchers includes Arizona’s Zac Gallen (Triple-A), San Diego’s Mackenzie Gore (High-A), San Francisco’s Seth Corry (Single-A), Arizona’s Luis Frias (Short Season), Miami’s Luis Palacios (Rookie), and Jerming Rosario of the Los Angeles Dodgers organization (Dominican Summer League).
- The Rockies play the Padres this weekend in a three-game series that has few relevant ramifications–aside from which team may be hung with the unflattering distinction of being the so-called cellar dweller in the NL West this year. There may be another bright spot in the offing for Colorado as their season yawns to a close, however, as word now comes that pitcher Kyle Freeland is one step closer to ending his troubled 2019 season on a positive note. Manager Bud Black told Thomas Harding of MLB.com that Freeland threw an issue-free, two-inning simulated bullpen session on Saturday–the 26-year-old’s latest step in recovery from a groin injury suffered on Aug. 21. After vexing hitters thoroughly in 2018 (2.85 ERA in 202.2 innings), this season has been a true test of faith for Freeland, as his 6.98 ERA in 99.1 innings of work was the worst mark among all pitchers who tossed more than 90 IP this year.
West Notes: Panda, D-backs, Astros, Rockies
The latest on several notable players from the majors’ West divisions…
- Although Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval is set for Tommy John surgery, his season doesn’t look over quite yet. Manager Bruce Bochy told Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group and other reporters Thursday that Sandoval could at least make some pinch-hit appearances before he goes under the knife. In the meantime, Sandoval will test out his swing to see if he’ll be able to contribute more this season. The longtime Giant, 33, is a strong bet to hit free agency in the offseason, meaning his run in San Francisco could be on the verge of concluding.
- Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver continues progressing toward a 2019 return, Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic relays. Weaver, out since late May with a UCL strain and a flexor sprain in his pitching arm, will throw a 25-pitch bullpen session on Friday, and the club will determine where to go from there. While Weaver was eminently effective out of the Diamondbacks’ rotation earlier this season, the lack of time left in the campaign will force him to pitch from their bullpen if he does return. Meantime, the news is less encouraging for fellow righty Taijuan Walker, whose 2018 Tommy John surgery and ’19 shoulder problems have stopped him from taking a major league mound this season. Walker is throwing, but it’s “unlikely” that he’ll come back this year, Morin writes.
- In welcome news for the Astros’ bullpen, injured reliever Ryan Pressly is doing “quite well” in his recovery from knee surgery, according to manager A.J. Hinch (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Pressly could resume light throwing over the weekend. His absence dating back to Aug. 21 has deprived the title-contending Astros of arguably their best reliever as the postseason approaches. The right-handed Pressly has logged a 2.50 ERA/2.83 FIP with tremendous strikeout and walk rates (11.62 K/9, 1.97 BB/9) over 50 1/3 innings this season. Teammate and fellow righty reliever Josh James could come off the IL this weekend, meanwhile, per McTaggart. The promising 26-year-old has fanned a prolific 14.03 batters per nine across 51 1/3 frames this season, though a bloated walk rate (5.03 per nine) has helped lead to a 4.73 ERA/4.11 FIP.
- Rockies reliever Scott Oberg explained to Thomas Harding of MLB.com why he recently underwent surgery to address blood clots in his right arm, saying, “It just felt really heavy.” It’s the second instance of blood clots for Oberg, but fortunately, he’s not suffering from any kind of major medical condition. The soon-to-be 30-year-old expects to be ready to go for 2020, when he’ll try to build on a second straight impressive campaign. This season has been anything but impressive for Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland, who’s currently on the IL with a strained groin, but he’s working toward a return; however, there’s no timetable for a possible comeback, Harding relays. Freeland went from Cy Young candidate a year ago to someone who has faced a minor league demotion this season and pitched to a ghastly 6.98 ERA/6.12 FIP over 20 starts and 99 1/3 innings in the bigs.
NL Injury Notes: McCann, Freeland, Cueto, Anderson
Brian McCann left Tuesday’s game with what the Braves described as left knee soreness. The veteran catcher was set to undergo tests today, and manager Brian Snitker indicated to reporters (including Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution) that he didn’t yet know if McCann would need to be moved to the injured list. Alex Jackson is most obvious candidate to be called up from the minors to back up Tyler Flowers if McCann does require an IL stint, though Atlanta also picked up John Ryan Murphy in a trade deadline swap with the Diamondbacks. Calling up Murphy would require the Braves to make room on the 40-man roster, however. McCann has hit .264/.336/.423 with 10 homers over 274 plate appearances this season (while also posting some above-average framing numbers), giving the Braves some extra pop from the catcher position as Flowers has had a down year at the plate.
More injury news from around the NL…
- Kyle Freeland left Tuesday’s game in the sixth inning due to a strained groin, and the Rockies left-hander seems likely to spend some time on the injured list. Freeland told Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post and other reporters that the injury feels similar to a strain that also put him on the IL back in 2017, though only for a minimal stint. The injury continues what has been a nightmare of a season for Freeland, as he has a 6.98 ERA and 22.9% home run rate over 99 1/3 innings, and also spent almost a month and a half at Triple-A in an attempt to get himself on track.
- Giants manager Bruce Bochy gave an unofficial projection of September 8 as Johnny Cueto‘s potential return date to the majors, as Bochy told reporters (including the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman) on Tuesday. Cueto threw 60 pitches in a rehab outing for the Class-A San Jose Giants yesterday, and he’ll make the first of two rehab starts for Triple-A Sacramento on Monday. Assuming the tentative September 8 date stands, it will mark just over 13 months between Tommy John surgery and a Major League mound for Cueto.
- In other Giants injury news, right-hander Shaun Anderson has started his own Triple-A rehab assignment, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. Anderson hit the IL on August 8 due to a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand, so he shouldn’t require too long of a ramp-up period before he is able to rejoin the Giants. Anderson has a 5.33 ERA, 1.77 K/BB rate, and a 6.0 K/9 over 82 2/3 innings in what has been a rather inconsistent rookie season for the 24-year-old.
Latest On Kyle Freeland
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland could soon be ready for a return to the majors, if he isn’t already, Nick Groke of The Athletic explains (subscription link) in the course of an excellent examination of the demoted southpaw.
There’s still no formal indication whether and when the Colorado organization will elect to call back Freeland. But the club is badly in need of a boost after dropping six-straight contests heading into the All-Star break. And Freeland says he’s ready to roll.
“I feel back to myself,” says Freeland, who was optioned at the end of May after a brutal start to the season. That came on the heels of a stirring 2018 performance in which he landed fourth in the National League’s Cy Young voting. While there was cause to anticipate some regression, it seemed at the time that the Denver native was destined to be a rotation stalwart for years to come.
After allowing more than seven earned runs per nine innings in a dozen MLB starts, Freeland has coughed up almost a run per frame in his half-dozen outings at Triple-A. With 28 strikeouts against 16 walks, he’s not exactly posting dominant K/BB numbers against second-level competition.
But those numbers only tell part of the tale, Groke writes. When Freeland was demoted, the prevailing sense was that he was in good shape physically and mechanically. The issue, rather, was that he had become predictable to big-league hitters. The Rox initially told Freeland to rely exclusively on his fastball and change. He wasn’t working on big fixes; as he puts it, “it was just getting back to being myself.”
That’s approximately the same characterization that skipper Bud Black puts on the situation. He expressed confidence, saying he anticipates Freeland will “exhibit confidence in his pitch mix” and “be more dimensional.” It’s all but impossible to really say what that will look like on the mound. As Groke explains, though, that’s due to Freeland’s nature as a pitcher who succeeds by mixing, matching, and adapting constantly with his expansive repertoire.
While Freeland may feel himself, it remains to be seen whether he can again pitch anything like the version of himself that was capable of a full season of sub-3.00 ERA ball at Coors Field. He was bombed in his last Triple-A outing of the month of June, coughing up nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, but then bounced back with a sterling outing just before the break (9 strikeouts, 2 walks, four hits, 1 earned run in 7 innings).
There’s loads of uncertainty, but the Rockies have little choice but to give Freeland another shot — likely in the relatively near future. Groke says the club is inclined to call up Chi Chi Gonzalez for an upcoming doubleheader spot start, but anticipates a need for a fifth starter later this month. That’s only part of the picture, though, as the club’s current four-man rotation mix is not without broader issues. German Marquez and Jon Gray have been sturdy; otherwise, the Colorado club has received shaky output. Antonio Senzatela (who has been destroyed by lefty hitters) and newcomer Peter Lambert (nine home runs allowed in 29 2/3 innings) haven’t thrived any more than did Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and Chad Bettis. If the Rox are to hand in the Wild Card race, they’ll need to get more consistency from their starting staff.
Rockies Option Kyle Freeland
The Rockies have optioned down struggling lefty Kyle Freeland, per a team announcement. Also headed to Triple-A is outfielder Yonathan Daza, with the team bringing hurlers Chris Rusin and Jesus Tinoco up to the active roster.
It’s a rather stunning move as regards Freeland, who finished fourth in the National League Cy Young voting last year. While it is no doubt hard to drop such a player down, the club could no longer look past his more recent issues.
Through a dozen starts this year, Freeland has managed only a 7.13 ERA in 59 1/3 innings. Though he’s still generating similar numbers of strikeouts (7.4 K/9) and walks (3.8 BB/9) to his 2018 showing, opposing hitters have teed up a league-high 16 long balls against him.
Freeland never seemed particularly likely to repeat his surprising sophomore campaign, as ERA estimators took a much dimmer view of his effort than his 2.85 ERA suggested. But the 26-year-old seemed likely to be a quality rotation piece for years to come.
There’s no glaringly obvious explanation for the downturn. While he has bumped up his swinging-strike rate a bit (9.0% to 10.6%), Freeland has given up much better contact when it has been made. Batters have doubled their barrel rate (to 10.7%) and jumped to 35.5% hard contact. Freeland has been abused in particular at Coors Field (9.31 ERA), the complete opposite from 2018 (2.40 ERA). He’s sitting at a .287 BABIP-against, right where he was last year (.285). There has been a change in sequencing fortunes, as Freeland has dropped to a 62.0% strand rate after sitting at 82.8% in 2018.
Freeland, the former eighth-overall draft pick, had accrued two full seasons of MLB service entering the present campaign. He’ll need to make it back to the majors in 2019 in order to reach arbitration as a Super Two or 3+ service-class player next fall. The team had indicated some pre-season interest in a long-term deal, though talks never seemed to get going in earnest and surely won’t now unless and until Freeland gets back on track.