Red Sox Acquire Garrett Crochet
The long-awaited Garrett Crochet trade is finally here. The lefty will be swapping his White Sox for Red Sox, according to announcements from both clubs. Four prospects are going the other way: catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.
Crochet, 25, was the eleventh overall pick in the 2020 draft and made his big league debut that same season with a six-inning cup of coffee. He was a key piece of the White Sox bullpen in 2021 with a 2.82 ERA and 2.80 FIP in 54 1/3 innings of work but missed the entire 2022 season and a portion of the 2023 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The lefty ultimately made just 13 appearances in the majors last year and struggled in 12 2/3 innings while walking more batters than he struck out during that time.
When the White Sox made the decision to not only move Crochet into the rotation but name him the club’s Opening Day starter back in March, the news came as something of a shock given his lengthy injury history. The move proved to be a fateful one, however, as Crochet went on to turn in a dominant season for Chicago to emerge as the club’s lone bright spot amid a brutal 121-loss season. Crochet pitched 146 innings across 32 starts for the White Sox this year, and in doing so posted a 3.58 ERA (115 ERA+) with a phenomenal 2.69 FIP. Among starters with at least 100 innings of work in 2024, Crochet led the sport in strikeout rate (35.1%) and SIERA (2.53) while also posting an elite 5.5% walk rate and a solid 45.1% groundball rate.
Those unmatched peripheral numbers paint a picture of Crochet as among the game’s very best starters on a rate basis, offering a rare combination of command and top-end velocity from the left side. That’s not to say Crochet comes completely without concerns, of course. He was quite prone to giving up hard contact with the White Sox this year, as evidenced by 14.4% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs and a 9.2% barrel rate that was in the bottom 15 among all MLB starters with at least 140 innings this year. While that proclivity towards lackluster batted ball results can be more than made up for with Crochet’s elite strikeout-to-walk ratios, the lefty’s lack of track record due to a substantial injury history is also sure to raise some eyebrows. His 146 innings of work this year represents the first time he’s thrown more than 65 innings in a season dating back to his college days in the SEC, and he threw even 90 pitches in just nine of his 32 starts this year.
Of course, it’s hardly a surprise that Crochet’s workload was closely managed given he more than doubled his previous career high for innings in 2024. Barring injury, it’s easy to imagine the Red Sox being able to stretch him out for larger workloads over the course of his two remaining seasons of team control, and perhaps even for as soon as the 2025 campaign. Ultimately, Crochet profiles as one of the most impactful arms in the entire sport on a per-inning basis, and that was clearly enough for a Red Sox club that has been on the hunt for an ace all winter to pull the triggers regardless of durability concerns.
The upside to Crochet’s limitations in previous seasons is that it has tamped down his earning power to this point in his career. He has accrued over four years of major league service time but since so much of that was spent either on the injured list or in the bullpen, he hasn’t been able to push his salary up terribly high. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for just $2.9MM next year. He will be due another raise in 2026 before his slated trip to free agency but probably won’t even be able to get to eight-figure territory due to his modest starting point. Given the massive prices being paid for free agent starters this winter, Crochet’s situation gave him a huge amount of trade value.
In return for two years of Crochet’s services, Boston is giving up a massive prospect haul. Teel is the clear headliner, ranked by Baseball America as the #25 prospect in the sport and Boston’s third-best prospect behind only Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell, both of whom reports have suggested the club regards as untouchable. A left-handed hitting catcher, Teel was the 14th overall pick in the 2023 draft and hit an excellent .299/.390/.462 in 84 games at the Double-A level this year before earning a promotion to Triple-A. The youngster rates as a solid defender behind the plate who is expected to have no issues sticking behind the plate, and with his 23rd birthday coming up in February it’s not hard to imagine him taking over as the everyday catcher for the White Sox in Chicago sometime in 2025.
In addition to Teel, the Red Sox are also dealing 2024 first rounder Braden Montgomery. The 12th overall pick in this year’s draft, Montgomery is a switch-hitting outfielder who has yet to make his pro debut but slashed .322/.454/.733 in 295 trips to the plate for Texas A&M this year. BA ranks Montgomery as the #59 prospect in baseball while MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #54 prospect in the sport, noting that he offers plus power and double-plus arm strength that should make him a good fit for right field. Meidroth and Gonzalez, meanwhile, are not considered top-100 prospects in the sport but are nonetheless well-regarded within Boston’s system. Per Pipeline, they ranked as Boston’s #11 and #14 prospects prior to the trade.
Meidroth was the club’s fourth-rounder in the 2022 draft and looked good in 122 games at Triple-A this year with a .293/.437/.401 slash line. The 23-year-old offers little power and profiles best as a second baseman in the majors but also has experience at third base and shortstop. Like Teel, he could impact the White Sox as soon as this year. Gonzalez, meanwhile, signed with the Red Sox out of Venezuela and made his pro debut back in 2019. He split his time between the rotation and bullpen at the Double-A level in 2024, posting a 4.73 ERA in 83 2/3 innings of work. His solid 25.6% strikeout rate at the level was overshadowed by a 12.8% walk rate. It’s possible Gonzalez could make an impact at the big league level out of the bullpen in the near-term, but given Chicago’s lengthy timeline for a return to contention it would hardly be a surprise to see the club opt to develop the 22-year-old carefully with an eye towards a future in the big league rotation.
With Crochet now in the fold, the Red Sox have checked the biggest box off of their offseason to-do list by adding a premium talent to the front of their rotation. What’s unclear, however, is the club’s next steps. Rumors percolated earlier this winter that the club may pursue multiple top-level pitching additions, and given the fact that the club reportedly prepared a formal offer for top free agent starter Corbin Burnes last night such an addition can’t necessarily be ruled out. A lower-level addition to supplement the rotation appears more likely at this point, however, given recent reporting expressing skepticism regarding Boston’s odds of landing Burnes. A reunion with Nick Pivetta or a pursuit of Walker Buehler have been floated as possible alternative free agent targets for the Red Sox and could allow the club to further build out depth for a rotation that currently projects to see Crochet joined by Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito next year.
Aside from bolstering the rotation, the Red Sox still figure to explore the market for a right-handed addition to their lineup. Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Bregman have both received buzz as potential targets for Boston, with Hernandez theoretically joining a crowded outfield mix as a replacement for Tyler O’Neill while Bregman would slot into the club’s lineup as the everyday second baseman barring a decision to move Rafael Devers off third base. Now that Teel is headed for Chicago, bolstering the club’s depth behind the plate seems likely and finding a back-up such as James McCann to pair with Connor Wong could be a priority for the club.
Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (X link) first reported that the Red Sox were about to acquire Crochet with Teel going the other way. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (X link) first reported the other names in the deal.
Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions
Craig Breslow‘s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito‘s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park. With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.
Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control. Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects. It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers. Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.
Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster. However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency. Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”
This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance. Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.
One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023. That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.
This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga. Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations. However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.
The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.” Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.
There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023. That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.
AL East Notes: Middleton, Santander, Red Sox
Right-hander Keynan Middleton was one of the only players the Yankees added at the trade deadline this year. While the club ultimately missed the postseason with an 82-80 record, Middleton excelled in 14 1/3 innings of work after coming over in a deal with the White Sox over the summer. The righty posted a sterling 1.88 ERA with a strong 3.26 FIP as a Yankee, bringing his overall season numbers to a solid 3.38 ERA with a respectable 4.20 FIP in 50 2/3 innings between Chicago and New York.
Though Middleton is poised to hit free agency next month, it’s possible that won’t be the end of the union between Middleton and the Yankees. Greg Joyce of the New York Post relayed positive comments from the 30-year-old hurler on his time in the Bronx. Middleton said there aren’t “too many other places” he’s looking at as he prepares to hit free agency, adding that “After being here, I don’t know why you wouldn’t want to be here… I’d love to come back here, but we’ll see what happens.”
The bullpen was a strength for the Yankees this season, though with right-hander Michael King slated to start in 2024 after a dominant year primarily in relief, it’s certainly reasonable the Yankees could look to reinforce their relief corps this offseason. Middleton figures to be joined by lefty relief arm Wandy Peralta and starters Luis Severino and Frankie Montas in departing the Yankees’ pitching staff for free agency this offseason.
More from around the AL East…
- Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander has been a frequent target of trade speculation throughout his career as a reliable, quality outfield bat throughout the club’s rebuild. Though Baltimore broke through this season with a 101-win campaign that took them to the postseason for the first time since 2016, it appears rumors surrounding Santander will persist into his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MASN’s Roch Kubatko suggests that given Santander’s hefty expected salary in 2024 (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects him to earn $12.7MM in his final trip through arbitration), Santander could be a topic of trade talks again this offseason. Kubatko goes on to note the Marlins as a team that’s had particular interest in his services in the past. The Marlins figure to once again have an opening in their outfield/DH mix this offseason, assuming Jorge Soler declines his player option for 2024.
- The Red Sox have been widely speculated to be active participants in the trade market this offseason as they look to rebound from a fifth-place finish in the AL East. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey suggests in a recent mailbag that plenty of the club’s prospects could be made available this offseason in their pursuit of a better season in 2024, with shortstop Marcelo Mayer, outfielder Roman Anthony, and catcher Kyle Teel as the club’s only perceived untouchables. Of course, McCaffrey notes that the current perception could change upon the hiring of a new head of baseball operations to replace Chaim Bloom, who the club fired last month.
Red Sox Agree To Terms With Their Top Two Draft Picks
The Red Sox agreed to deals with their top two draft choices Friday afternoon, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter links). 14th overall pick Kyle Teel received an even $4MM signing bonus against a $4.66MM slot value, while second-rounder Nazzan Zanetello landed a well above-slot $3MM figure.
Teel, 21, was viewed as the top catcher in this year’s college class. He was the second backstop off the board after Kansas City took high schooler Blake Mitchell eighth overall. Teel ranked in the back half of the top 10 on pre-draft rankings at The Athletic, ESPN, Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. That made it a bit surprising he fell to Boston at 14 and the underslot signing figure most closely aligns with the slot value for the 18th selection.
A left-handed hitter, Teel put up a .407/.475/.655 line during his final season at the University of Virginia. He hit 25 doubles and 13 home runs with a modest 12.1% strikeout rate over 297 trips to the plate. He earned the ACC Player of the Year award as a result. Evaluators credit him with a well-rounded skillset headlined by excellent athleticism for a catcher and plus arm strength.
Zanetello, a Missouri high school infielder, was selected 50th overall. That selection has a slot value of $1.7MM, which the Sox handily exceeded to sign him away from the University of Arkansas. A right-handed hitting infielder, Zanetello ranked as high as 33rd on Keith Law’s pre-draft list at The Athletic but was outside the Top 100 at Baseball America. Evaluators praise his bat speed and athleticism but raised questions about the amount of swing-and-miss in his game.
2023 MLB Draft, First Round Results
The 2023 MLB Draft begins tonight, and this post will be constantly updated with each team’s selections from the first round. The Mets and Dodgers are the only teams without a first-rounder, as their top picks were each dropped 10 places overall as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2022. As a result, the Mets won’t have a selection until the 32nd overall pick, and the Dodgers won’t select until 36th overall.
The first-round selections….
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, RHP, LSU
- Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU
- Detroit Tigers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
- Texas Rangers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University Of Florida
- Minnesota Twins: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
- Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon University
- Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest
- Kansas City Royals: Blake Mitchell, C, Sinton High School (TX)
- Colorado Rockies: Chase Dollander, RHP, University of Tennessee
- Miami Marlins: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High School (OR)
- Los Angeles Angels: Nolan Schanuel, 1B/OF, Florida Atlantic
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford
- Chicago Cubs: Matthew Shaw, SS, University of Maryland
- Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia
- Chicago White Sox: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University Of Mississippi
- San Francisco Giants: Bryce Eldridge, 1B/RHP, Madison High School (VA)
- Baltimore Orioles: Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF, Vanderbilt
- Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
- Tampa Bay Rays: Brayden Taylor, 3B/SS, TCU
- Toronto Blue Jays: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High School (FL)
- St. Louis Cardinals: Chase Davis, OF, University of Arizona
- Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, Glenn High School (OH)
- Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez, C, Huntington Beach High School (CA)
- Atlanta Braves: Hurston Waldrep, RHP, University of Florida
- San Diego Padres: Dillon Head, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor High School (IL)
- New York Yankees: George Lombard Jr., 3B/SS, Gulliver Prep High School (FL)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Aidan Miller, 3B/SS, Mitchell High School (FL)
- Houston Astros: Brice Matthews, SS, University of Nebraska
This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days. Rounds 11-20 will take place on Tuesday, rounds 3-10 on Monday, and the draft’s first 70 picks will be made tonight. Those 70 picks cover the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents), and the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick. The Mariners received the PPI selection at 29th overall, since Julio Rodriguez filled the criteria of winning the Rookie Of The Year Award, being part of his team’s active roster from Opening Day onwards, and he ranked as a preseason top-100 prospect by at least two of Baseball America, ESPN, and MLB Pipeline.
The PPI is one of several new wrinkles to the 2023 draft, as this is the first draft held under the new guidelines established by the 2022-2026 Collective Bargaining Agreement. The process for determining the 14 teams in the Competitive Balance Rounds was also tweaked, though the teams (all in the bottom 10 in market size or revenue size) will still have their picks split up over two mini-rounds sandwiched around the second round. The most obvious change came at the very top of the board, as this was the first year of the lottery process to determine the draft’s top six picks. This is how the Pirates ended up with the first overall selection, even though the Nationals and A’s each had worse records in 2022.
This year’s draft class is considered to be one of the deepest and most talent-laden in years, so several potential franchise-changing players could be starting their pro careers tonight. More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.
Several Prospects Withdraw From 2020 Draft
With MLB’s shortened, five-round draft a week away, multiple players have removed their names from consideration. Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo reports that high school outfielders Dylan Crews and Brandon Fields have withdrawn their names, as has Florida State outfielder Reese Albert, who’ll return to FSU for his senior season. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel adds that high school catcher Kyle Teel is also withdrawing. Crews will honor his commitment to Louisiana State University, while Fields will play for the University of South Carolina and Teel will head to the University of Virginia. They’ll all be eligible for the 2023 draft.
Crews is the most notable of the bunch, landing 39th on McDaniel’s Top 150, 54th on Baseball America’s Top 500 and 68th on MLB.com’s Top 200. Collazo writes that Crews ranked as the No. 2 prep player in the country entering last summer but had somewhat of a down year that caused his stock to dip a bit. As for the others, McDaniel calls Teel a potential third-round talent, while Collazo lists both Fields and Albert as “top-200 caliber” players, which suggests that neither was a lock to go in this year’s shortened draft.
It’s possible, if not likely, that additional players will remove themselves from consideration in 2020 between now and next Wednesday. Beyond the draft being capped at five rounds, this year’s slot values did not increase over their 2019 levels, and draft bonuses are being paid out in deferred fashion through 2022. Those who go undrafted, meanwhile, will be limited to $20K signing bonuses. High school players, in particular, could see appeal in playing college ball and bolstering their stock, given the elimination of the middle and late rounds of the event.