Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets
Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link). It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.
The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part. Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster. (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)
Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM. There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.
Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words. Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month. The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season.
Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18. While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.
Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020. Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system. Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions. None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level. This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.
It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017. Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.
Braves Activate Ender Inciarte From Injured List
The Braves have activated outfielder Ender Inciarte from the 10-day injured list, the team announced. Right-hander Kyle Wright was also called up from Triple-A to start tonight’s game, while righties Huascar Ynoa and Bryse Wilson were sent down to Triple-A to create roster space.
Inciarte is set to take the field for the first time since May 14, as the outfielder has been sidelined with a lower lumbar strain that ended up costing him over a third of his season. That injury led to Atlanta’s promotion of top prospect Austin Riley, who got off to a scorching start before seeing his production severely drop off over the last month. While Riley still seems likely to get the bulk of everyday at-bats, his struggles will mean Inciarte will get at least some looks, if perhaps only against some right-handed starters. Ronald Acuna Jr. will obviously continue to be a fixture in every Braves lineup, likely moving between center and right field depending on whether Riley or Inciarte is playing.
While never a truly dangerous offensive threat, Inciarte had at least been roughly a league-average offensive producer before falling to a 90 wRC+ in 2018, and then this season’s disastrous 61 wRC+ mark (.218/.300/.323 over 140 plate appearances before hitting the IL). Even if Inciarte is reduced to being only a fourth outfielder, his strong defense and baserunning make him a valuable bench asset.
Since the Braves opted to demote a pitcher rather than a position player for Inciarte, Atlanta will go with a five-man bench that consists of four outfield options — Inciarte, Matt Joyce, and utilitymen Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored the Braves’ rather crowded bench situation, tossing around ideas like demoting Riley to get him straightened out at the plate to designating for assignment (or trading) one of Culberson, Adams, or even Inciarte. The latter would be the costliest and thus probably the least likely idea, as Inciarte is still owed over $16.4MM through the 2021 season.
Braves Designate Jerry Blevins
The Braves have designated lefty Jerry Blevins for assignment, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. Righty Kyle Wright was already optioned down, thus creating two active roster openings that will be filled by relievers Jesse Biddle (back from the IL) and Wes Parsons (recalled from Triple-A).
Blevins opened the season in the Athletics organization, facing the unfamiliar position of earning his way onto a major league roster. He ended up being acquired by the Braves and installed in their relief unit.
Things haven’t worked out as hoped for Blevins, who has allowed four runs with four strikeouts and three walks in his 3 1/3 innings over six appearances. That’s too short a sample to draw any final conclusions, but Blevins was working at or near career-worst levels of velocity (89.1 mph average fastball), swinging strikes (8.1%), and hard contact (50.0%) in th ebrief showing.
Braves Recall Touki Toussaint, Option Kyle Wright
Per a team release, the Braves have recalled top prospect Touki Toussaint from Triple-A Gwinnett and optioned another, righty Kyle Wright, to the minors.
Toussaint, the 16th overall pick in the 2014 draft, was acquired from Arizona in a curious 2015 salary dump that also sent righty Bronson Arroyo to Atlanta. The 22-year-old broke out in a big way last season, striking out over 10 men per nine at both AA-Mississippi and AAA-Gwinnett en route to a late-season, five-start cameo in the bigs. Command has long been the question for the flamethrowing Toussaint, whose stuff – a double-plus fastball and knee-buckling curve – is said to be some of the minors’ best. Per David O’Brien of the Athletic, Toussaint will begin his 2019 MLB work out of the Braves’ bullpen.
Wright, a 23-year-old righty selected 5th overall in the 2017 draft, and even more highly-regarded than Toussaint in most circles, has struggled mightily in his initial MLB taste. In three starts this season, the former Vanderbilt product walked (10) nearly as many as he struck out (11), and allowed a staggering four homers in just 14 innings pitched. Last season’s cameo wasn’t much better, so it may indeed be time for the 6’4 righty to simmer longer below. Wright tore through the Atlanta system in just a year and a half, but has yet to post the dominant strikeout rates the club surely hoped to see against lesser competition.
Roster Decisions: Braves, Jays, Tigers, Twins
With Opening Day nearly upon us, here are a few of the notable roster decisions from around the game …
- Right-hander Wes Parsons and non-roster invitees Matt Joyce and Josh Tomlin have made the Braves‘ Opening Day roster, the team announced to reporters today (Twitter link via Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution). Meanwhile, as The Athletic’s David O’Brien writes, Bryse Wilson and Kyle Wright will be a part of Atlanta’s rotation to begin the season. That makes for quite an interesting and unexpected collection of roster pieces. The club is waiting to finalize its roster completely while evaluating external options.
- Right-hander Trent Thornton, whom the Blue Jays acquired in exchange for Aledmys Diaz this winter, will be Toronto’s fourth starter to open the season, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet tweets. Fellow righty Sam Gaviglio will open the year as a long man in the bullpen. In other decisions for the Jays, also via Davidi, the club has decided to keep Rule 5 righty Elvis Luciano despite some rocky moments this spring. Southpaw Thomas Pannone and infielder Richard Urena are also heading north, with the team’s final roster spot still up for grabs. It may go to Bud Norris if he’s ready, says Davidi, with the team also pondering Javy Guerra while eyeing outside possibilities.
- The Tigers have informed righty Spencer Turnbull that he’ll be in the rotation to begin the season, as Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports. He took that job over lefty Daniel Norris, who’ll open the year in the bullpen. Norris will work in a long capacity, with the goal being to keep him stretched out in case a starting spot comes open. Turnbull, 26, earned the nod with an excellent spring showing: 15 frames of 1.80 ERA pitching with 15 strikeouts and just a pair of walks. The former second-round pick reached the big leagues briefly last year, but spent most of his ’18 season at Double-A. He pitched to a 4.47 ERA with 9.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 98 2/3 innings over 19 starts at the penultimate level of the minors.
- In one of the better stories of Spring Training, Ryne Harper has made the Twins‘ Opening Day roster, as manager Rocco Baldelli recently announced (Twitter link via Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Harper, who turns thirty today, enjoyed a terrific spring with the Twins and will now have the opportunity to pitch in his first big league game after grinding through eight minor league seasons. The call to the big leagues for Harper is surely sweetened by the fact that he’s come as close to making his big league debut as possible in the past; the Mariners selected Harper’s contract back in 2017 but optioned him back to Triple-A before he ever appeared in a game. He was outrighted before ever being summoned back to the big leagues.
Braves Promote Kyle Wright
The Braves announced several roster moves Saturday, including the promotion of right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Wright, whom they selected from Triple-A Gwinnett. The club also transferred closer Arodys Vizcaino to the 60-day disabled list and selected outfielder Lane Adams‘ contract from Triple-A. Meanwhile, injured righty Brandon McCarthy re-aggravated his right knee during a rehab assignment and did not come off the 60-day DL, Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
There’s a lot to unpack here, though the most exciting news for Atlanta is the addition of Wright. The ex-Vanderbilt standout entered the 2017 draft as a potential No. 1 pick, but he fell to No. 5, leading the Braves to scoop Wright up and sign him to a then-record bonus worth $7MM. Wright has made good on that pick by emerging as one of the majors’ elite pitching prospects, evidenced in part by MLB.com ranking him as the game’s 24th-best farmhand. The 22-year-old is set to become the latest highly promising Braves hurler to debut in 2018, joining the now-injured Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint and Kolby Allard.
While Wright has a chance to eventually emerge as a high-end starter, he’ll work out of the playoff-contending Braves’ bullpen down the stretch, per Burns. Wright did make three relief appearances out of seven at the Triple-A level this year, but he has primarily served as a starter in 2018. Across 27 appearances and 24 starts between Double-A and Triple-A this season, Wright pitched to a 3.46 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
Elsewhere in the Braves’ bullpen, Vizcaino’s move to the 60-day DL looks discouraging on the surface, but he’s still likely to make it back in 2018, manager Brian Snitker told Burns and other reporters on Saturday. Vizcaino had been on the 10-day DL since July 14 with right shoulder troubles, so he’s now ineligible to return until mid-September. His absence has paved the way for lefty A.J. Minter to close for the Braves, and the latter has converted 11 of 13 saves while notching a 3.12 ERA with 10.21 K/9 against 2.94 BB/9 in 52 innings this season.
While the the latest development regarding Vizcaino isn’t ideal, McCarthy’s setback is downright discouraging, as it’s now possible he has thrown his last major league pitch. McCarthy, who hasn’t taken a major league mound since June 24, announced earlier this month that he plans to retire at the end of the season. The 35-year-old has started in all 15 of his appearances this season, but he was set to finish the year as a reliever upon his return.
Adams, whom the Braves signed to a minors pact in mid-July, saw action with them earlier season and last year, totaling 143 plate appearances and batting a respectable .270/.345/.460. The 28-year-old was out of the Atlanta organization for a brief period in 2018, though, as he elected free agency in late April and then latched on with the Cubs. But Adams struggled with Chicago’s top minor league affiliate before rejoining Gwinnett, with which he hit an unappealing .191/.238/.266 with no home runs in 101 PAs this season.
Braves Sign Kyle Wright
12:42pm: The Braves have now announced the signing. Heyman tweets that Wright’s bonus is exactly $7MM, which tops Kris Bryant ($6.7MM) as the largest bonus given under the current draft structure..
7:45am: The Braves have reached an agreement with No. 5 overall pick Kyle Wright, reports MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. The Vanderbilt right-hander will receive a bonus worth a bit more than $7MM, placing him well above the $5,707,300 value of his draft slot. FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the two sides were discussing a deal worth close to $7MM. Wright is represented by CAA.
Wright, at one point, was considered to be the likely first overall pick, but draft-day rumors suggested that the Twins had narrowed their choices to Royce Lewis and Brendan McKay, with Lewis ultimately going first. That allowed Wright to drop to the Braves with the fifth overall selection, giving Atlanta the opportunity to pick the player that they had ranked No. 1 on their board, according to scouting director Brian Bridges.
“It’s far-fetched when you get the guy who is still on the board who shouldn’t still be on the board who is advanced for his age,” Bridges said to Bowman. “He brings everything we want to see. He was definitely No. 1 on our board, so we feel really good about where we are.”
Wright was a consensus top five talent, per the pre-draft rankings of Baseball America, ESPN, MLB.com and Fangraphs. The 6’4″, 220-pound righty has drawn praise for a mid-90s fastball that he can run up to 97 mph — the best of his four-pitch mix. Wright is also said to have a curveball that ranges from above-average to plus as well as a slider and a changeup, both of which can be average or better big league offerings. He still has some work to do when it comes to consistently locating his pitches, but most scouting reports on him feel that he’ll ultimately have average or better command in the Majors as well.
Wright joins high school right-hander Shane Baz among first-round picks to reach agreements with their teams already just days after the draft. (Baz agreed to a deal with the Pirates yesterday.) The Braves will spend “approximately $8.7MM” between Wright and their second-round pick, Drew Waters, according to Bowman, which should mean that Waters will agree to a deal in the general vicinity of his $1.675MM slot value.
Draft Notes: Lewis, McKay, Day 2, Gore, Greene, Wright, Beck
No. 1 overall draft pick Royce Lewis will take his physical with the Twins soon, tweets Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. There aren’t expected to be any hangups in negotiations, per Berardino, who notes that the industry expectation is for Lewis to receive a bonus north of Dansby Swanson‘s $6.5MM bonus from the 2015 draft. The top pick in the draft came with a slot value of $7.7MM, and MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger wrote this week that Lewis could sign for around $1MM less than that sum. That’d put his bonus in the $6.5MM to $6.7MM range, saving the Twins anywhere from $1MM to $1.2MM from the slot value. FanRag’s Jon Heyman pegs the expected value at “just a tick over” $6.7MM. Rays top pick Brendan McKay, meanwhile, is expected to sign for somewhere between $7MM and $7.2MM, according to Berardino. That’d be the largest bonus ever given to a college player under the current draft structure, surpassing Kris Bryant‘s $6.7MM sum.
More notes on the draft…
- The Twins “crushed” Day 2 of the draft, MLB.com’s Jim Callis opines. Adding high school right-hander Blayne Enlow, a potential first-round talent that dropped due to a strong commitment to LSU, kicked off a day in which Minnesota selected five players that ranked inside MLB.com’s top 200 draft prospects. Enlow, Callis writes, has the best curveball in the draft as well as a fastball that has touched 94 mph and has room to grow as his projectable frame grows. Callis also lauds the White Sox, Dodgers, Red Sox and Brewers for the talent they secured in rounds three through 10. ESPN’s Keith Law agrees that the Twins did quite well to land Enlow with the No. 76 pick and also gives quite a bit of praise to the Athletics, who landed a first-round talent (in his estimation) with the 81st pick by taking shortstop Nick Allen. Law opines that the undersized Allen, who is listed at 5’8″, would’ve been a top 10 pick if he were three inches taller.
- FanRag’s Jon Heyman provides some insight into the progress being made with the top five picks in the draft. The Padres, according to Heyman, are expected to sign No. 3 overall pick MacKenzie Gore, a high school left-hander, for the full slot value of $6,668,100. Reds top pick Hunter Greene, meanwhile, is expected to sign for a deal “close” to the $7,193,200 slot value of his No. 2 overall selection, per Heyman. (Also of note for Reds fans: Heyman spoke to a rival exec who heaped praise on the Reds’ draft, opining that they “won the draft by far.”) And the Braves look to be going well over slot to sign Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright, as Heyman reports that they’re discussing a deal worth close to $7MM, while the No. 5 slot carries a value of $5,707,300. Of course, Wright was long rumored to be a potential No. 1 overall pick, so it stands to reason that he’d come with a fairly sizable price tag.
- Baseball America’s John Manuel reported yesterday that Stanford right-hander Tristan Beck, a potential first-round talent that missed the 2017 season due to a stress fracture in his lower back, will not sign and plans to head back to Stanford (Twitter link). That didn’t stop the Yankees from drafting him late (29th round), though New York would obviously need to give him a massive bonus in order to convince him to forgo a return to college, as a healthy Beck would do quite well in next year’s draft. The Yankees may not have the leftover money even to make a legitimate effort to sign Beck, though he makes for a nice contingency plan if the team unexpectedly finds itself with some extra pool money to play with.
Draft Chatter: Lewis, McKay, College Arms, Mock Drafts, A’s
With the MLB Draft just a few hours away, there’s some increasing talk that the Twins are giving serious consideration to high school shortstop Royce Lewis with the No. 1 overall pick. John Manuel of Baseball America tweeted today that Lewis is in consideration and adds that he was told by a Twins official that signability is a factor for the Twins up top. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the Twins are down to Lewis and Louisville left-hander/first baseman Brendan McKay. Meanwhile, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweeted that as of this morning, a Twins front office source told him that no decision has been made.
For those wondering whether the Twins may cut a deal with Lewis to save money and allow greater spending with their Comp Balance pick and second-round selection, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets that Lewis has a high asking price. (Lewis is reportedly being advised by agent Scott Boras.) Adding to the Lewis/Twins steam is La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, who tweeted that with less than three hours until the Twins are on the clock, the Lewis steam is real. McKay and flamethrowing righty Hunter Greene are both in the mix, Neal adds, and money is a significant factor in the decision. Obviously, the Twins will spend their entire allotted draft budget regardless of who they take, but the amount for which the first overall pick signs will determine how aggressive the Twins can be on pick Nos. 35 and 37 as well as with the rest of their selections.
A bit more on tonight’s draft…
- Fangraphs’ Gerald Schifman takes an excellent look at the usage of some of the top college arms in the draft, examining each pitcher’s average pitches per start, the percentage of starts in excess of 115 pitches and the number of “Pitch Smart” violations. (More details on the Pitch Smart guidelines here.) Notably, projected top picks like Vanderbilt’s Kyle Wright and Louisville’s Brendan McKay have had their pitch counts and rest between starts managed quite well for the most part. On the other end of the spectrum is UCLA righty Griffin Canning, who has throw 115+ pitches in 53 percent of his outings in the past two seasons. Missouri’s Tanner Houck has also had some troubling usage trends, including high pitch counts and a lack of rest between outings.
- As is always the case on draft day, there are a number of last-minute mock drafts from some industry experts that readers and draft followers will want to check out. Both Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com agree that the top five picks will go Brendan McKay (Twins), Hunter Greene (Reds), MacKenzie Gore (Padres), Royce Lewis (Rays) and Keston Hiura (Braves). That, somewhat surprisingly, would leave Kyle Wright out of the top five, though Callis has him going sixth to the A’s, while Mayo has him going seventh to the D-backs. BA’s John Manuel agrees with that top three, though he has high school outfielder Bubba Thompson going to the Rays and Wright going to the Braves at No. 5. ESPN’s Keith Law also published a draft-day mock, listing McKay, Greene, Gore, Lewis and Wright as his respective top five.
- The Athletics are up with the No. 6 pick in the draft tonight, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle connects them to a number of outfielders and pitchers. High school lefty MacKenzie Gore is on Oakland’s radar, though many project him to go before the A’s are on the clock. High school outfielder Austin Beck is also an Athletics target and recently had a private workout with the A’s. Slusser notes that they’d be thrilled to see Kyle Wright slip to them with the sixth selection, similarly to the manner in which Florida lefty A.J. Puk dropped to Oakland last year after being discussed as a potential 1-1 option. Wright’s teammate, outfielder Jeren Kendall, is also intriguing to the A’s, per Slusser.
Poll: Who Will Be The No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?
Major League Baseball’s annual amateur draft kicks off tonight at 7pm ET, and the Twins will be on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since selecting local catcher out of St. Paul’s Cretin-Derham Hall high school named Joe Mauer back in 2001. While some draft classes have a very clear top overall pick (e.g. Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg), that doesn’t appear to be the case this season. There have been rumors circulating about who the Twins will select No. 1 overall tonight for months, now, and the top three names on the board, at the very least, seem to be clear….
- Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame HS (Sherman Oaks, Calif.): Greene has been the most talked-about player in the draft class for the past year. A two-way high school star that has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated and generated awe with a fastball that has reached 102 mph, Greene sits atop the draft rankings of MLB.com, Baseball America and ESPN. However, while he has the highest upside in the class, there’s also never been a high school right-hander selected No. 1 overall in the draft, and the risks associated with a prep pitcher are greater than those associated with a college player or even a fellow high school pitcher. Most mock drafts from experts have had the Twins passing on Greene, though he’s undoubtedly a tempting option for the new-look Minnesota front office.
- Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt: Wright ranks first on Fangraphs’ list of draft prospects, just edging out Greene for that top spot. Over the past month, he’s been the most oft-connected name to the Twins, with most draft experts and scouting reports touting him as the best combination of ceiling and certainty. Armed with a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and can reach 97 mph, Wright also has solid control and three secondary offerings that scouting reports peg as average to above-average. He may not have generated as much fanfare and intrigue as the two-way stars that join him atop the draft class, but Wright is very much in the mix to go first overall.
- Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville: Scouting reports on McKay are split on whether his best long-term fit is on the mound or as a position player, but there’s a general belief that he could excel either way. Whether a team prefers McKay as a pitcher or a hitter, he seems like a virtual lock to go in the top five of the draft. MLB.com’s report gives him a future 60-grade rating in either role, while ESPN’s Keith Law notes that he showed a bit of fatigue on the mound late in the season. Dedicating himself fully to one discipline under a professional coaching/player development staff could allow McKay to take his game to a new level in either direction. The Twins have been connected to McKay quite often, and while most mocks had Wright going No. 1 overall for the past month, McKay’s name has regained a bit of steam in the past few days.
Readers can check out more details on this year’s draft class by diving into the excellent work from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com (free); Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs (free); Keith Law of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required/recommended); and John Manuel and his team over at Baseball America (subscription required and, once again, recommended).
But, if you already have an opinion on the matter formed, let’s get right to the poll (link for Trade Rumors mobile app users)…
Who will the Twins take with the No. 1 overall pick?
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Brendan McKay 33% (2,088)
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Kyle Wright 32% (2,033)
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Hunter Greene 28% (1,740)
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Other (Specify in comments) 7% (439)
Total votes: 6,300