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Mariners Planning To Use a Six-Man Rotation

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At some point in the coming days, the Mariners are planning to shift to a six-man rotation, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. Despite season-ending injuries to Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales, and Easton McGee, the Mariners boast one of the deepest rotations in baseball. As Dipoto put it, “Our one through six in the starting rotation … can pitch with anybody in the league.” That being said, most of Seattle’s starting pitchers are young and inexperienced; in other words, they could benefit from some extra rest.

The current starting five consists of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, and Emerson Hancock. Bryan Woo is expected to return from the injured list and rejoin the rotation early next week (Twitter link). Of those six, only Castillo and Gilbert had pitched a full major league season before this year. Miller, Hancock, and Woo are rookies, while Kirby, still just 25 years old, is on pace to pitch his first qualified season. He threw 130 innings last year in his rookie campaign.

As Jude reports, the Mariners plan to go with a six-man rotation once Woo comes back from the IL. He could have supplanted Hancock, who has struggled in his first two big league starts (5.40 ERA, 9.8% strikeout rate), but it seems Seattle is comfortable giving the top prospect a longer leash. However, Dipoto did mention that the team might “piggyback” Woo and Hancock down the stretch after trying out a six-man rotation for a week or two.

Additional rest will be most beneficial for Seattle’s young arms, but it should help the rest of the rotation, too. Castillo has been one of the more durable starters in baseball over the last six years, making 158 starts with a 3.58 ERA. Only six pitchers have thrown more innings in that time, so he could certainly use some time off. The same goes for Gilbert, who had thrown 338 2/3 big league innings before his 26th birthday. Since making his debut in 2021, he ranks tenth in the majors in starts and 15th in innings pitched. Dipoto acknowledged that Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby will have to shoulder plenty of responsibility should the Mariners make the playoffs, and some extra rest now should help them stay fresh for a potential postseason run.

However, while this arrangement will benefit everyone in the rotation, it will make things harder on the bullpen. If the Mariners carry six starting pitchers, they will only have room for seven relievers on the 26-man roster. Furthermore, it’s not as if Seattle’s young starters have been pitching especially deep into games. Woo and Hancock are averaging exactly five innings per start, while Miller is averaging five and a third. Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert are averaging about six innings per start, but those three will pitch less often with a six-man rotation. Thus, the bullpen will have a heavier load to carry for as long as the six-man rotation experiment lasts.

Thankfully for Seattle, they have one of the best bullpens in baseball. Mariners relievers rank second in ERA and third in FanGraphs WAR, and they’ve still had excellent results since losing closer Paul Sewald, pitching to a 1.89 ERA since the trade deadline. Moreover, they have essentially been using a seven-man bullpen as it is. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Trent Thornton, Tayler Saucedo, Justin Topa, Isaiah Campbell, and Gabe Speier have combined to pitch 45 2/3 of the 47 2/3 innings the Mariners bullpen has thrown since August 1. The Mariners will be counting on those seven to handle a difficult workload for the next while, but eventually, they should get some relief if Woo and Hancock do, in fact, move into a piggyback arrangement.

Gonzales and Ray are expected to rejoin the club at some point in 2024, at which point the Mariners will have an embarrassment of riches in the starting rotation. Gonzales is under team control through 2025, while Ray is signed through 2026. Castillo, meanwhile, is signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028. Gilbert is also under team control through 2027, Kirby through 2028, and the rookies through at least 2029 (pending further optional assignments).

With so many capable starters (and so many arms that will need a 40-man spot over the winter), there’s a good chance Dipoto will look to make a trade. The Mariners were reportedly willing to consider dealing one of their starting pitchers this summer, and they’ll have a better opportunity to do so over the offseason. The Cardinals, who have a surplus of young hitters but not nearly enough pitching, could be an interesting trade partner. They will be looking to add multiple starters this winter, and they were already linked to Gilbert earlier this year.

Mariners Could Deal From Rotation, Open To Offers On Paul Sewald

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There’s been ample speculation surrounding the Mariners’ excellent young rotation since it was reported that the Cardinals had interest in 26-year-old righty Logan Gilbert. And while a trade involving one of Seattle’s talented arms could be a long shot due to the lofty asking price associated with all controllable young starters, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the M’s would at least consider dealing from their stock in order to acquire a young hitter with several years of control remaining.

Seattle’s rotation features veteran ace Luis Castillo and a quartet of touted young righties: Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Gilbert and Kirby have largely established themselves as quality big league arms, while Miller and Woo have impressed during their rookie efforts.

Gilbert, sporting a 3.88 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 4.4% walk rate in 20 starts, is controllable for four more years beyond the current season. Kirby (3.49 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 2.4% walk rate) has an additional five seasons of control remaining. Miller (3.96 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 5.1% walk rate in 75 innings) and Woo (4.91 ERA but a 28.9% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate in 44 innings) would each come with six seasons of control beyond the current year. Both Miller and Woo were ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects at the time of their respective promotions.

The price to acquire any of those arms would surely be steep; not only would the Mariners be seeking a controllable bat to plug into the lineup — they’d likely be seeking a high-end, all-around contributor. Reds fans have regularly asked in MLBTR chats about the possibility of shipping Jonathan India to the Mariners for one of those starters, for instance, but league-average offense at second base and three-plus years of control likely isn’t enough to sway Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to part with anywhere from four to six seasons of control over a big league starter. (Notably, Rosenthal suggests a trade of India is far likelier in the offseason than in the next few days.) The same could well apply to Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson — another roughly league-average hitter with three-plus seasons of club control remaining.

Should the Mariners find an offer to their liking on any of their talented young arms, Rosenthal suggests they could call up Emerson Hancock from Double-A. The former sixth overall pick has a 4.26 ERA with solid but not eye-popping strikeout and walk numbers over 19 starts there. Rosenthal also floats the possibility of Seattle acquiring an impending free agent starter — perhaps in a Teoscar Hernandez swap with another win-now club — to step into a rotation spot vacated by a trade of a controllable arm. Marco Gonzales is currently on the injured list but could return later in the season; perhaps Robbie Ray will make it back from Tommy John surgery at some point next year.

While a deal involving one of Seattle’s controllable starters would be tough to pull off, trades of shorter-term veterans could be easier to line up. Reliever Paul Sewald is surely of interest to a number of clubs, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported tonight (on Twitter) that Seattle is signaling an openness to moving him.

Sewald has been one of the best relievers in the sport since breaking out with Seattle in 2021. He owns a 2.90 ERA in 170 2/3 innings in an M’s uniform. The right-hander has been effective in all three seasons, including an even 3.00 ERA over 42 frames this year. He’s striking out just under 36% of opponents against a modest 7.9% walk rate.

The 33-year-old righty is playing this season on a $4.1MM arbitration salary. He’s eligible for that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2024-25 offseason. The asking price on Sewald obviously wouldn’t be as extreme as those on the M’s starters, but Seattle would surely aim high in those talks as well.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners pulled back to .500 this afternoon, blanking the Twins to get to 48-48. They’re still in fourth place in the AL West, 9 1/2 games behind the division-leading Rangers. They’re five games out of the final Wild Card spot pending Houston’s night contest in Oakland.

With the club hovering around average all season, the front office finds itself in a borderline position approaching the August 1 trade deadline. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto suggested the team was taking a flexible approach in a chat with Mike Salk this morning during his weekly appearance on 710 AM ESPN in Seattle.

Dipoto conceded the M’s have “not really separated ourselves in a meaningful way to be aggressive on the buying end.” While he left open the potential for short-term additions, he noted they’ll use the next 11 days to evaluate if it’s “better to make a push for the ’23 season or to better situate ourselves for ’24.”

In any event, it doesn’t seem the Mariners are preparing to play at the top of the rental market. “Last year, we were very aggressive in the trade market for what I would call the big fish and we were able to land Luis Castillo,” Dipoto said. “This year, we’re probably not going to be in that market. We’re going to be more in the margins market, trying to find a way that we can get a little bit better in ’23 and better situate ourselves for ’24.”

It’s possible that could involve moving a shorter-term veteran off the MLB roster in a deal for controllable talent. Asked by Salk whether selling is off the table, Dipoto replied, “No, and it never has been. … We are always one foot in the camp of buyer and one foot in the camp of seller, believing that the best way to approach any trade deadline is with the mindset of ’how do we make the Mariners better?’”

That’s not an uncommon approach for executives whose teams are on the periphery of contention. The Red Sox and Brewers attempted (unsuccessfully) to thread that needle last summer, dealing veterans with dwindling control windows while bringing back more controllable upper level talent. As Dipoto pointed out, the Mariners have found themselves in a similar position — most notably in 2021, when Seattle traded impending free agent reliever Kendall Graveman to the Astros for infielder Abraham Toro while Houston was narrowly ahead of the Mariners in the standings.

While Dipoto’s comments leave open the possibility of parting with veteran players, they’re not about to kick off a rebuild. The baseball operations leader expressed confidence in a core centered around the likes of Julio Rodríguez, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, J.P. Crawford, Bryan Woo and Castillo.

Dipoto attributed the club’s middling performance in large part to a lack of depth, particularly in the lineup. “We’re about an average major league offense by most advanced metrics. We need to find a way to be better than average,” he said. “In order to do that, we can tap into a lot of different avenues. Some of it is going to come from our system; some of it is going to come from outside. It has to, and maybe that starts now.”

It’s hard to argue with that characterization. Seattle entered play Thursday ranked 18th in runs. They’re 25th with a .310 on-base percentage and 24th with a .388 slugging mark, though that’s partially a product of a tough home hitting environment. By measure of wRC+, which accounts for ballpark, the M’s have been one percentage point worse than a league average offense.

Conceding that “we don’t have a next wave of bats at Triple-A ready to come and push us over that edge,” Dipoto suggested that building out the lineup depth will be a priority. He took responsibility for the club’s current struggles in that regard. While Dipoto predictably didn’t single out any players, none of Seattle’s top three offseason acquisitions has performed up to expectations.

Teoscar Hernández is hitting .243/.296/.428 across 399 plate appearances. That’s serviceable but certainly not what the M’s had in mind when they sent reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko to Toronto in November. Hernández had been an impact bat for the Blue Jays from 2020-22, combining for a .283/.333/.519 line.

Kolten Wong and AJ Pollock, on the other hand, haven’t found any success in 2023. The former is hitting .158/.240/.211 in 58 games after an offseason trade that sent Jesse Winker to Milwaukee. He has lost the starting second base job to José Caballero as a result. Pollock is hitting .169/.222/.315 since signing a $7MM free agent contract to add some right-handed pop to the outfield.

Seattle won’t be able to drum up much interest in either of the latter two players. If they seriously consider moving short-term veterans, though, Hernández should still be on the radar for clubs looking for offensive help. The M’s wouldn’t recoup the kind of value they surrendered to get him, of course, but his pre-2023 track record could make him an appealing change-of-scenery target.

Hernández is playing this season on a $14MM arbitration salary. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end. A couple months ago, he looked like a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s no longer an obvious decision, at least raising the possibility of Seattle getting no compensation if they hold him past the deadline and he departs in free agency.

Seattle’s only other impending free agent is backup catcher Tom Murphy. He’s affordable ($1.625MM arb salary) and mashing at a .275/.330/.539 clip in a limited role. As a rental backup catcher, he wouldn’t bring back a major return, but the M’s shouldn’t have a problem finding a trade partner if they were to put him on the market.

Reliever Paul Sewald could be Seattle’s most appealing realistic trade chip. The righty owns a 3.03 ERA with a massive 37.7% strikeout rate over 38 2/3 innings. He has been excellent in all three of his seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Sewald is eligible for arbitration for one more year, so the Mariners would hold firm to a huge asking price if they made him available at all. Dealing him would probably be their best chance to get an upper level bat with an extended window of team control, assuming they’re not interested in dealing any of their prized young starting pitching.

Cardinals Interested In Logan Gilbert

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The Cardinals are coming out of the All-Star break with a 38-52 record, placing them in last place in the National League Central and 11 games back in the Wild Card race. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak recently admitted that the club will have to approach the deadline as sellers, focusing on making moves that benefit the 2024 club.

The club has just over two weeks until the August 1 deadline, giving them some time to figure out their plans, but Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has a report with some specifics that shine a light on their current plans. Notably, the Cards are uninterested in trading core players like Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker. They are open, however, to trading pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Ryan Helsley and Génesis Cabrera, while Jack Flaherty is already generating interest from other clubs. As for what kind of player they are looking to bring in, Goold lists Logan Gilbert of the Mariners as someone they are interested in.

To be clear, there’s no indication that the Mariners have any inclination towards trading Gilbert, but it’s entirely understandable why the Cards would be interested. The 26-year-old Gilbert has made 74 starts to this point in his career, posting a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 36.9% ground ball rate. He’s right in line with those figures this year, having a 3.66 ERA with similar peripherals in 18 starts.

More importantly for the Cardinals, Gilbert can be immediately plugged into their rotation and has plenty of club control remaining. He came into this season with one year and 144 days of service time and will finish this season at 2.144. That makes him a virtual lock to qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player this winter, but he will still have four years of club control left, meaning he isn’t slated to become a free agent until after the 2027 season.

The Cards are not planning a deep rebuild but are instead focused on next year’s club, when they have plenty of rotation uncertainty. Adam Wainwright is planning to retire after this year, while both Flaherty and Montgomery are impending free agents. They have also seen some internal options struggle this year. Steven Matz had an ERA of 5.72 through 10 starts before getting bumped to the bullpen, though he recently retook a rotation job after some solid relief work. Matthew Liberatore has decent numbers in Triple-A but a 6.75 ERA in the majors this year. Dakota Hudson has spent most of the year in Triple-A, posting an ERA of 6.00 at that level. All of that leaves Miles Mikolas as the only sure thing for next year’s rotation.

But Seattle wouldn’t give up Gilbert easily. The club is 45-44 right now and just four games out in the American League Wild Card race. Gilbert is a key part of their rotation right now and for future seasons, given his aforementioned years of control. If they were to give any thought to moving him, they would likely have to get back something that helps some other part of their roster in the here and now. They also have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Bryan Woo in their rotation alongside Gilbert, but Robbie Ray is out of the season while Bryce Miller and Marco Gonzales are currently on the injured list. Subtracting Gilbert from that mix would to be weighed against the benefits of an upgrade elsewhere.

The Mariners have tried to do a buy-sell hybrid before, which was in 2021. They flipped relievers Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero to the Astros in exchange for Joe Smith and Abraham Toro, while picking up Diego Castillo and Tyler Anderson in separate deals. The move didn’t work out, with the clubhouse apparently not thrilled by the closer suddenly pitching for a divisional rival and the M’s ultimately missing the playoffs.

This year’s trade deadline is generally considered to have a lack of sellers that may force clubs to consider trades between contenders, with each club giving up current major league talent, such as last year’s deal where the Cards got Montgomery from the Yankees for Harrison Bader. A Gilbert trade would be a significantly different beast though, since Montgomery and Bader each had just a season and a half of club control remaining at the time. When factoring in Gilbert’s extra control and the fact that the M’s just got burned on the hybrid deadline strategy not too long ago, it’s hard to view a trade coming together as a likely scenario.

Nonetheless, the interest from the Cardinals is instructive as to what their targets might be. They have a crowded position player mix and may perhaps look to swap someone from that group for some controllable pitching, even if it’s not Gilbert. It remains to be seen which players they are willing to put on the table in such a pursuit, but it seems they’ll hang onto Arenado, Goldschmidt, Nootbaar and Walker.

It’s not a terrible shock to see those names listed as off-limits. Goldschmidt and Arenado are the two most important players on the club, finishing first and third respectively in National League MVP voting last year. Both players also have full no-trade clauses, which would make a deal complicated even if the Cardinals wanted to consider it. The players could always waive their clauses but Goold reports that Arenado has not been approached about doing so and would prefer to stay anyway. There’s been no reporting to suggest that anything is different with Goldschmidt.

Walker was one of the top prospects in the league coming into this year and is faring well in his first season, hitting .283/.347/.457 for a 123 wRC+ thus far. He made the club’s Opening Day roster but was optioned for over a month at one point, meaning he’ll come up shy of one year of major league service here in 2023 and leave the Cards with six further seasons of control. As a consensus top prospect, he could earn that full year by finishing in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, but he would still be a key part of the club’s future even in that scenario.

Nootbaar, meanwhile, has hit .241/.343/.420 in 226 career games while providing above-average outfield defense. He will still have four years of control remaining after this one and isn’t slated to qualify for arbitration until after 2024.

Just because those names are listed as unavailable, it doesn’t necessarily mean that anyone not named is therefore available, but the club will likely have to move someone. Tyler O’Neill has often been speculated as a candidate since the club has Nootbaar, Walker, Dylan Carlson and others in the outfield mix. On the infield, meanwhile, Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan have somewhat similar multi-positional profiles and have been pushed to the grass with Paul DeJong and Nolan Gorman often in the middle infield. If the Cards have their sights set on an impact rotation addition like Gilbert or someone similar, they might have to make the difficult decision of parting with someone in that group.

Though that situation seems fluid and has many factors, the rental pitching seems much more straightforward. Each of Montgomery, Flaherty and Hicks are impending free agents and seem virtual locks to be moved at this point. Montgomery is a consistent mid-rotation guy, with a 3.75 career ERA and a 3.23 mark here in 2023. He’s making $10MM this year, which will leave about $3.22MM left to be paid out at the deadline.

Flaherty has shown ace upside in the past but was held back by injuries in recent years. He’s not back to those ace levels this year, currently sporting a 4.27 ERA, but he’s at least healthy and effective enough for a rotation job. Hicks, meanwhile, has triple-digit velocity and seems to be finally figuring out how to weaponize it properly.

Helsley and Cabrera aren’t strict rentals and don’t need to be moved at this deadline, necessarily. But given the volatility of relief performance, it’s logical for the Cardinals to consider what kind of return they can get right now. Helsley seemed to take over the closer’s role last year, posting a 1.25 ERA and racking up 19 saves in the process. He has a 3.24 ERA this year but has been on the injured list for the past month due to a strained right forearm. Players on the IL can be traded but his health status might cast a shadow over trade talks. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one via arbitration. He’s making $2.15MM and will have about $700K left to be paid out when the deadline rolls around.

Cabrera, 26, has been inconsistent in terms of his strikeouts but has always had subpar control. Regardless, left-handed relief tends to always be in demand to some degree. He has a 4.07 ERA in his career but a 4.70 mark this year. He’s struck out 25.7% of opponents this season but walked 13.2%. Like Helsley, he can be retained via arbitration for two more campaigns after this one. He’s making $950K this year, which will leave just over $300K at deadline time.

All in all, there are many moving parts for the Cardinals to consider, making them one of the most interesting clubs to watch in the coming weeks. They haven’t been in the clear seller position in a while, but they seem well-positioned to take advantage of it. Few clubs are in the same category and many of the other clear sellers have far less to offer in terms of players that would be of interest for contending clubs.

Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation

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The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.

Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.

Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).

Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.

Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.

That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.

It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.

Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.

The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.

There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.

Mariners Notes: Kikuchi, Anderson, Gilbert

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The Mariners are poised for one of their most active offseasons in years, with their recent retooling effort having reached its conclusion. Before turning their attention to outside acquisitions, they’ll have to determine whether to retain a few of their own key players. This morning, MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered their looming decision regarding Kyle Seager, and Seattle will also have some notable calls to make on the pitching side.

Yusei Kikuchi, the team’s All-Star representative, could hit the open market. The team has to decide on a four-year, $66MM package deal of conjoined club options this winter. If the club declines to make that long-term commitment, Kikuchi will either exercise his own $13MM option to return in 2022 or choose to test free agency.

Entering the season, the team exercising the options looked like a long shot. Kikuchi then got off to the best start of his three-year MLB career, seemingly making that a tougher call for the front office, as Steve explored here in early July. Over the season’s first half, the 30-year-old worked to a 3.48 ERA across 98 1/3 innings, en route to the aforementioned All-Star selection. He’s struggled mightily over the past couple months, though, with just a 6.04 ERA in 47 2/3 frames. The southpaw’s strikeout rate has dipped a couple percentage points relative to the season’s first few months, while his walk rate has spiked. He’s also been tagged for eleven home runs in his last ten starts as his rate of hard contact allowed has ticked up.

Given those recent struggles, the odds the club picks up Kikuchi’s options look to be dwindling, writes Corey Brock of the Athletic. That’s not particularly surprising, as the southpaw now owns a 4.32 ERA with league average strikeout and walk rates (24.3% and 9.3%, respectively) over the course of the season. Paired with his subpar showings in 2019-20, making that level of long-term commitment to Kikuchi would seem quite risky, even for a club with ample payroll space.

Declining the options would give Kikuchi the chance to become the third Mariners’ starter to hit the open market, joining James Paxton and Tyler Anderson. Seattle could be motivated to bring Anderson back, as he’s fared well since being acquired from the Pirates in a midseason deal. Over eight starts, the southpaw has a 3.83 ERA, offsetting a below-average 18.1% strikeout percentage with a very low 3.7% walk rate. Anderson tells Brock he’d have interest in re-signing with Seattle, and M’s manager Scott Servais said he’s “very intrigued” about the possibility of a reunion, opining that Anderson “would be a good fit going forward.”

Anderson has posted back-to-back reliable seasons. Since the start of 2020, the 31-year-old has a 4.25 ERA in 207 2/3 innings. He hasn’t missed many bats, but he throws plenty of strikes and has done fairly well to avoid damaging contact. It’s possible he and his representatives look for a multi-year deal this offseason, but Anderson was limited to a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee last winter and has split this season between two clubs with pitcher-friendly home ballparks.

In addition to augmenting the group in free agency, the Mariners could look into a long-term deal with one of their pitchers already under team control. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that Seattle offered righty Logan Gilbert an extension last September, which the former first-round pick declined. Rosenthal doesn’t suggest there are any plans for a future offer in the near future, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office decides to make another effort at some point.

Gilbert had yet to make his big league debut at the time of the M’s offer, but he’s since made his first twenty starts. While the 24-year-old only has a 5.10 ERA, his peripherals have been far more encouraging. Gilbert’s 26% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk percentage are each a few points better than the league average, as is his 12.7% swinging strike rate. The front office is likely as bullish as ever on the young starter’s long-term outlook.

While Gilbert reached the majors this year, his mid-May promotion was late enough in the season that he won’t accrue a full year of service time. He won’t reach free agency until after the 2027 season, although his promotion should enable him to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player over the 2023-24 offseason (assuming the existing service time structure survives this winter’s collective bargaining negotiations). No starting pitcher in the 0-1 year service class has signed an extension since Chris Archer’s April 2014 deal with the Rays. With nothing of recent precedent, it could be difficult for the sides to line up on a mutually agreeable price point.

Mariners Officially Promote Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert

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The Mariners have made it official: top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert have had their contracts selected to the Major League roster and will make their MLB debuts tonight against the Indians. Seattle has also selected the contract of right-hander Paul Sewald.

To make room on the 26-man roster for that trio, the Mariners have optioned outfielder Taylor Trammell, lefty Aaron Fletcher and righty Wyatt Mills to Tacoma. Additionally, Seattle designated outfielder Braden Bishop for assignment and transferred both Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome to the 60-day injured list to open spots on the 40-man roster. Margevicius, according to the team, has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Newsome is weighing options for a UCL injury.

Jarred Kelenic | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The promotions of both Kelenic and Gilbert were reported to be taking place earlier in the week. Kelenic comes to the Majors as one of the game’s top overall prospects — a potential five-tool outfielder who was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 draft. Kelenic, in many ways, has become the face of the Mariners’ rebuilding effort. Not only is he the top-ranked prospect in a farm system that was rapidly turned from one of the game’s thinnest to one of the game’s best, but he was the centerpiece of the trade that saw the Jerry Dipoto-led front office trade away Robinson Cano — the signature addition of predecessor Jack Zduriencik.

Kelenic, who has yet to turn 22, had an even brighter spotlight cast upon him after now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather revealed during a recorded interview that Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and the club planned to call him up in late April. It was a clear nod to service time manipulation, one that prompted Kelenic and agent Brodie Scoffield to publicly state that the Mariners had made clear that he’d have been in the Majors last summer had he accepted their offer prior to the 2020 season.

As if that situation didn’t cast enough eyes on Kelenic, he quickly put on a display in Triple-A Tacoma that illustrated why he is so highly regarded within the industry. Kelenic homered twice in his Triple-A debut last week, and he’s gone on to bat .370/.414/.630 with a pair of steals in a total of 29 plate appearances in what the organization hopes will be the only Triple-A time he ever needs.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranks Kelenic as the No. 3 prospect in all of baseball, and Kelenic checks in as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect on the lists penned by Baseball America, MLB.com, Keith Law of The Athletic and Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs. Scouting reports on him are rife with superlatives. BA calls him an “elite young hitter” who projects to be an “offensive force,” while FanGraphs touts him as a “lethal offensive threat” who’ll hit enough to be a star regardless of his defense — which nearly all suggest to be solid in the outfield corners, at least during his younger seasons.

For all of the focus on Kelenic, the also-touted Gilbert seems to get lost in the shuffle at times. Selected just eight picks after Kelenic in the first round of that 2018 draft, Gilbert tore through minor league lineups in 2019 and may well have been positioned for a call to the big leagues in 2020 had their been a full season. As with Kelenic, Mather said in that interview that Gilbert would be in the big leagues just a few weeks into the season.

Logan Gilbert | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Gilbert, who recently turned 24, racked up 135 innings across two Class-A levels and Double-A in 2019, pitching to a minuscule 2.13 ERA with a huge 31.7 percent strikeout rate against a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate. While he’s not ranked among the game’s five best prospects, none of the aforementioned prospect rankings have Gilbert listed any lower than No. 47 overall.

Both BA and MLB.com rank Gilbert as the game’s No. 28 farmhand, painting the 6’6″ 225-pound righty as a viable mid-rotation starter with the upside to develop into even more than that. He doesn’t have the triple-digit fastball we’ve practically come to expect from so many top pitching prospects, but Gilbert has a mid-90s heater with three average or better secondary offerings and, as Law writes, “some of the best command of anyone on this list.”

The organizational hope is that Gilbert steps up as a foundational piece in an increasingly promising young mix of starters. Ideally, recent first-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock will join him over the next year or so.

The timing of those promotions remains to be seen, but with regard to both Kelenic and Gilbert, they’ll be controlled all the way through 2027 even if they never return to the minors. Both are now likely to be Super Two players — assuming they stick in the Majors and assuming Super Two designation survives the upcoming wave of collective bargaining talks. That would make both players arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three, with the first offseason of arb eligibility coming post-2023.

Seattle will also get its first look at the 30-year-old Sewald, a former Mets reliever who has spent parts of four seasons in the big leagues. He’s had some solid stretches out of the ’pen in Queens, but the overall body of work was lacking, as the righty owns a 5.50 ERA in 147 1/3 Major League innings. That said, he also has a career 3.01 ERA in parts of five Triple-A campaigns and had been absolutely lights-out so far in Tacoma, tossing 4 1/3 shutout frames with 10 strikeouts and no walks. It’s always possible that a change of scenery will unlock something, and this is indeed a change for Sewald, who’d spent his entire career prior to 2021 in the Mets organization.

Turning to the players who are being sent out, Trammell will now head to Tacoma and get regular at-bats as he looks to get on track. A well-regarded, top-100 prospect himself, the 23-year-old made the big league roster out of Spring Training but struggled in his initial look at MLB pitching. Through his first 95 trips to the plate, the former No. 35 overall pick (Reds, 2016) managed just a .157/.255/.337 output with a troubling 43 percent strikeout rate.

Trammell spent the 2020 season at the alternate sites for the Padres and Mariners — he was part of last summer’s Austin Nola trade — but hadn’t played in a game setting since 2019 and has never taken a plate appearance in Triple-A. With Kelenic, Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger now slated to make up the Mariners’ starting outfield, there weren’t going to be everyday at-bats for Trammell. Given his prospect status and his ceiling, the Mariners clearly want to make sure he’s getting everyday reps to build toward a future where he’s a vital piece of a dynamic outfield mix.

Bishop, meanwhile, now becomes a candidate to either be traded or passed through outright waivers, where any team can claim him. The 27-year-old hasn’t hit much in a small sample of 99 Major League plate appearances, but he does have a career .267/.355/.465 slash in Triple-A and is capable of playing all three outfield spots. He’s also optionable for the rest of the season, so a club with some depth issues in center field — e.g. the Phillies or Pirates — could have interest in taking a look either via waiver claim or a small trade.

As for Margevicius and Newsome, their diagnoses are obviously quite unfortunate. The Mariners initially placed Margevicius on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, but a thoracic outlet syndrome diagnosis is typically followed by an invasive surgery to remove a portion of the pitcher’s rib. TOS surgery has a much spottier track record of recovery for pitchers than Tommy John surgery, and if Margevicius ultimately goes under the knife, it’d quite likely end his 2021 season. Manager Scott Servais revealed last night that Tommy John surgery was on the table for the 24-year-old Newsome, so it’s hardly a surprise to see him moved to the 60-day IL with a confirmed diagnosis of a UCL injury.

All told, it’s a rather lengthy list of transactions for the Mariners — but one they hope will mark a watershed day in their organization’s history. It’s probably unfair to any prospect to view him as a potential organizational savior and tie the fate of a broad-reaching rebuild to his successes or failures, but right or wrong, those are the type of expectations fans will place on the likes of Kelenic and Gilbert. They’ll now join Lewis, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, on a roster that seems to skew younger and younger as the months tick by.

Should this youth movement bear fruit in the form of multiple productive young stars, the Mariners will look all the more formidable in the long run. Seattle has just $19.2MM in guaranteed salary on the books next year — including the $3.75MM they owe to the Mets as part of the Cano/Kelenic agreement — and that number drops to $14MM in 2023. Considering this is a club that has in the past trotted out a $158MM Opening Day payroll, the confluence of this group’s arrival and next year’s star-studded free-agent class offers Mariners fans the hope of finally reaching an oasis in desert of a playoff drought that now spans two decades.

Mariners To Promote Logan Gilbert

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The Mariners will promote standout pitching prospect Logan Gilbert, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN. Gilbert will start their game against the Indians on Thursday, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets.

This is the second major promotion coming this week for Seattle, which is also set to call up elite outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic prior to Thursday’s contest. The Mariners and their fans will get their first major league looks at two players they hope will be part of the solution in Seattle for the long haul.

Like Kelenic, Gilbert was part of the first-round class of 2018. The Mariners took the right-hander 14th overall out of Stetson University, where Cy Young winners Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber attended. And though Gilbert didn’t pitch professionally that season because of mononucleosis, he has since dominated minor league competition. Gilbert combined for 135 innings among the Single-A, High-A and Double-A levels in 2019, when he recorded a sterling 2.13 ERA with 165 strikeouts against 33 walks. There was no minor league campaign in 2020, which prevented Gilbert from pitching in a real game, but he threw five innings of four-hit, one-run ball with five strikeouts and no walks in his Triple-A debut this year.

Thanks in part to the excellence he has shown at lower levels, Gilbert ranks as one of the sport’s premier pitching prospects. MLB.com places Gilbert No. 28 on its top 100 list and writes that his impressive four-pitch repertoire – a fastball, slider, curve and changeup – could help him turn into a No. 2 starter in the majors. Baseball America joins MLB.com in ranking Gilbert 28th, while FanGraphs (No. 37), ESPN (No. 43) and The Athletic (No. 47) also regard him as a top-end prospect.

Gilbert will now join a starting rotation that has received mixed results this year. Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen and Justin Dunn have fared reasonably well over a combined 18 starts. On the other hand, the M’s only other hurlers with three or more starts – Marco Gonzales, Justus Sheffield and Nick Margevicius – haven’t performed as hoped. Gonzales and Margevicius have been out since late April with injuries.

If Gilbert takes hold of a rotation spot and stays up for good, the Mariners will be able to control him through 2027. He’s also slated for Super Two status, meaning he’ll go through arbitration four times.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mariners Place James Paxton, Jake Fraley On Injured List

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12:35pm: The Mariners announced that Paxton and Fraley have both been placed on the 10-day injured list. Paxton has been diagnosed with a left forearm strain, while the MRI confirmed a hamstring strain for Fraley. The Mariners recalled outfielder Braden Bishop and righty Ljay Newsome from their alternate training site to take their spots on the roster.

8:22am: James Paxton returned to the Mariners’ rotation last night after two years in the Bronx, but his start was cut short by another forearm injury, as he exited after just 1 1/3 innings. Outfielder Jake Fraley, meanwhile, left the game with what the team later announced as a hamstring strain after making a diving catch in left field. Both players will undergo an MRI this morning, manager Scott Servais told reporters after the game (via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

Paxton’s 2020 season with the Yankees was cut short by a forearm strain, so it’s obviously a concerning development for him to suffer this type of injury — particularly so early in the season. The lefty did tell Divish and others that the pain he’s feeling in his arm isn’t at the same level as it was when he sustained that injury last summer.

The Mariners brought Paxton back to the organization on a one-year, $8.5MM free agent deal over the winter. The 32-year-old had interest from several teams, as one would expect based on his track record of success, but he seemingly preferred to return to Seattle. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto noted at the time of the signing that Paxton had been sharp in workouts for MLB teams and gave the club something of a “hometown discount.”

The reunion looked to be going well in Spring Training, where Paxton struck out half of the 34 batters he faced and allowed just one run during Cactus League play. For the time being, he struck an optimistic tone that the current issue could be muscular in nature and something from which he can quickly return.

As for Fraley, the 25-year-old is out to an unusual start to his 2021 season. He’s just 1-for-10 through five games, but he’s drawn eight walks and been hit by a pitch, leading to a bizarre .100/.500/.200 batting line through his first 19 plate appearances. Acquired from the Rays as part of the Mike Zunino trade, Fraley hasn’t hit much in two prior stints with the Mariners in 2019-20, but he only tallied 70 plate appearances during that time. He’s a career .286/.362/.480 hitter in the minors — including a .276/.333/.553 showing in 38 Triple-A games.

For the moment, however, it seems that an IL stint could be on the horizon, which will have the baseball world watching intently. The most straightforward move for the M’s would simply be to recall Braden Bishop from their alternate site, as he’s on the 40-man roster already, but Seattle also has top prospect Jarred Kelenic on the cusp of his first big league promotion as well.

Kelenic’s service time status was thrust into the national spotlight when now-former CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated in a Q&A with the Bellevue Rotary Club that the 21-year-old Kelenic had turned down an extension offer and wouldn’t be called to the Majors until mid-April (the general point at which the Mariners would gain an extra year of control over Kelenic). Kelenic missed some time in Spring Training with a minor knee injury, but he returned to the lineup and immediately went 3-for-6 with a double and a homer in two games before being reassigned to minor league camp, so the injury looks to be behind him.

It still seems likelier that the Mariners will turn to Bishop for the time being, as calling up Kelenic now would still give him enough time to accrue a full year of Major League service in 2021. That would no longer be the case as soon as next weekend, however.

Turning back to the pitching staff, the Mariners were already using a six-man rotation, so it’s likely they’ll simply shorten up to five starters for the time being and carry an extra reliever. The bullpen had to cover 7 2/3 innings last night and took a beating at the hands of the White Sox in the process, so Seattle would probably prefer to get a fresh arm into the relief mix anyhow.

It’s at least worth noting that as with the Fraley/Kelenic situation, the Mariners have a highly regarded pitching prospect who is near MLB readiness: 2018 first-rounder Logan Gilbert. While this comment didn’t draw as much attention as the Kelenic revelation, Mather indicated in that same interview that he expected Gilbert to be pitching in the Majors by mid-April (obviously, an allusion to his service time). Gilbert, however, only tossed a pair of innings in Spring Training before being reassigned to minor league camp, so he may not yet be built up to the point where he’s an option even in the event that Paxton is shelved for a notable period of time. If the Mariners want to stick with a six-man rotation and Paxton does miss some time, they could give a few starts to Ljay Newsome and/or Nick Margevicius. Before too long, however, Gilbert seems likely to emerge as an option at the big league level.

Mariners Release Gerson Bautista

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The Mariners announced a slate of roster moves last night, reducing their spring roster to 48 players. Among the most notable cuts: right-hander Gerson Bautista was released from the organization.

This marks the second time that the Mariners organization has parted ways with Bautista, although the circumstances are different. Seattle outrighted Bautista off its 40-man roster at the end of the 2020 season after he missed the year due to a flexor strain in his pitching arm, and he was able to elect free agency thereafter. He quickly returned on a new minor league deal, signing back with the Mariners just two weeks later.

That’s not the case this time around, as Bautista wasn’t on the 40-man roster and has been able to pitch this spring — but has not done so effectively. The hard-throwing 25-year-old served up three runs in 5 1/3 innings, which isn’t necessarily alarming on its own, but he did so on the strength of seven hits and six walks without recording a strikeout. Small sample or not, six walks against no strikeouts through 26 batters faced isn’t an encouraging omen for any pitcher — particularly one who punched out 27.5 percent of his opponents at the Triple-A level. Bautista came to the Mariners alongside Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster with the Mets, and it seems he may now be destined for a new organization.

The Mariners also optioned righty Yohan Ramirez to Triple-A to begin the season after the righty accrued a full year of service in their bullpen last year. Ramirez posted a strong 2.61 ERA and whiffed 26 batters in 20 2/3 frames, so some may be a bit surprised by his demotion. However, in spite of that impressive ERA, he also issued 20 walks, plunked four hitters and tossed a pair of wild pitches. His control could clearly use some refinement, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that he’s also been behind after spending time away from the club due to Covid-19 protocols. Ramirez tossed just one inning in an official game this spring and, despite not yielding a hit, allowed a pair of runs on a walk, two hit batters and two wild pitches.

It’s also notable that top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert was reassigned to a minor league camp. The former first-rounder only made one Cactus League start, and given his lack of pro experience — just one full season, in 2019 — that wouldn’t have registered as much of a surprise. However, former CEO Kevin Mather suggested during the interview that led to his resignation that Gilbert wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster but would be in the Majors “by mid-April.” As such, the right-hander’s timeline to the big leagues will be interesting to monitor. He’s yet to pitch above Double-A, where he started nine games in 2019. In a total of 135 frames between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A that year, Gilbert worked to a combined 2.13 ERA with a gaudy 31.7 percent strikeout rate and a tiny 6.3 percent walk rate.

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