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Luis Gil To Undergo Shoulder MRI; JT Brubaker Suffers Rib Fractures

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil felt some shoulder tightness during a bullpen session today and is heading for an MRI tomorrow. Manager Aaron Boone relayed the information to reporters, including Greg Joyce of the New York Post. Boone also revealed, per Joyce, that JT Brubaker broke three ribs trying to avoid a comebacker last week. No timeline was provided for Brubaker’s return.

At this point, there’s little information available on Gil and it can only be speculated what comes next. However, an MRI indicates that the club has at least some level of concern about the discomfort in his shoulder.

Any injury absence would obviously be unwelcome news for Gil and the Yankees. The righty missed most of 2022 and 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and the subsequent recovery period, but he returned with a big flourish in 2024. Despite the long layoff, Gil managed to take the ball 29 times and toss 151 2/3 innings for the Yankees last year, plus two more postseason starts. He finished the regular season with a 3.50 earned run average and 26.8% strikeout rate. The 12.1% walk rate was a little high but Gil worked around that enough to win American League Rookie of the Year honors.

Brubaker still hasn’t pitched for the Yankees. He was acquired from the Pirates going into 2024 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He started a rehab assignment in June but then got held back by an oblique strain, which kept him on the IL through the end of the year. Prior to his surgery, he posted a 4.99 ERA in 315 2/3 innings over three seasons with the Bucs from 2020 to 2022.

It’s obviously not ideal for a club’s rotation mix to potentially lose two members but the good news is that the Yankee rotation will still be in strong position even if Gil and/or Brubaker need to miss some time. The Yanks have such a packed rotation that they have been trying to unload Marcus Stroman for weeks.

No deal has come together and Stroman is getting stretched out in spring, so he could easily step into a rotation spot alongside Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt. Brubaker’s injury, and Chase Hampton’s recent Tommy John surgery, will thin out the depth a bit but the club has other potential arms there.

MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at some notable out of options players coming into the 2025 season in a piece for Front Office subscribers, highlighting Yoendrys Gómez as one of them. Gómez didn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot as of a few hours ago but dual IL stints for Gil and Brubaker would obviously help him. The Yanks also have Will Warren and Brent Headrick on the 40-man roster. Veteran Carlos Carrasco is in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Ideally, Gil’s MRI will find nothing of note and he will be fine after a bit of rest. But even in the event something more significant is found, the Yanks seem well absorbed to put together a strong pitching staff in the short term, a strong demonstration of the “you can never have too much pitching” cliché.

Details On Yankees’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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Before Kyle Tucker was traded from the Astros to the Cubs, the Yankees were known to be one of the teams also vying to land the star outfielder.  Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil was reportedly of interest to the Astros in these trade talks, but New York ultimately turned down Houston’s demand for Gil and infield prospect George Lombard Jr. in exchange for Tucker, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

It makes for an interesting contrast to the trade package that the Astros did accept from Chicago.  Lombard and prospect Cam Smith could be viewed as essentially a match as recent first-round draft picks, though Smith is higher regarded in the view of MLB Pipeline (Smith is 73rd on their top-100 prospect list and Lombard isn’t on the list).  Gil is a controllable pitcher who has already made a name for himself at the big league level, so Isaac Paredes and Hayden Wesneski represent something of a split of those two resume points.  Wesneski is controlled through 2029 and has a solid 3.93 ERA over his 190 Major League innings, but he isn’t considered to have quite Gil’s ceiling, so making up that difference could’ve been achieved by adding a proven hitter like Paredes.

Landing three players instead of two obviously allowed the Astros to address more needs, as Paredes can help fill one of Houston’s corner infield vacancies and Wesneski brings rotation depth.  Gil would’ve been a more clear-cut installation into the Astros rotation and perhaps then necessitated another trade, since the Astros on paper have a surplus of rotation options.  However, since Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both returning from lengthy injury absences, the Astros might also want to see how things play out in Spring Training before dealing an arm, lest the club again get caught with a lack of depth in the rotation.

Interestingly, the Yankees did indeed trade a starting pitcher and an infield prospect for a prominent star player with one year remaining before free agency, except rather than Gil/Lombard for Tucker, it was Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin going to the Brewers for closer Devin Williams.  The two trade packages have some differences, of course, as Cortes is a year away from free agency, and was viewed a more expendable part of New York’s pitching mix since he was relegated to bullpen duty in the playoffs and was floated in trade rumors at the deadline.  Durbin is also over five years older than Lombard and is considered to be on the verge of his MLB debut, whereas Lombard has yet to reach even the Double-A level.

The timing of the negotiations between the Astros and Yankees was perhaps also a factor.  If the Yankees were already well down the road in talks with Milwaukee about Williams, that might’ve made the Bronx Bombers less likely to deplete their pitching and prospect depth even further by accepting the Astros’ offer for Tucker.  Some New York fans might well wonder “why not both?”, as even without Gil or Cortes, the Yankees still have a projected starting five of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and newly-signed frontline arm Max Fried.  Acquiring both Tucker and Williams would’ve left the Yankees still in search of infield help and now a “sixth starter” type of depth arm, but those are perhaps minor question marks compared to the upside of bringing both an All-Star outfielder and All-Star closer into the mix.

Gil is a known quantity to baseball fans, but the 19-year-old Lombard was the 26th overall pick of the 2023 draft.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Lombard as the third-best prospect in New York’s farm system, viewing him as a very solid all-around player with five-tool potential, even if he perhaps lacks a true plus-plus calling card.  Lombard has played mostly shortstop in the minors and evaluators feel he can stick at the position, but he has also seen time at second and third base.  Lombard’s approach and overall hitting potential are both considered good, though he hit only .231/.338/.334 over 497 combined plate appearances with A-level Tampa and high-A Hudson Valley in 2024.

Latest On Yankees’ Offseason Plans

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The Yankees’ offseason was largely focused on Juan Soto until he agreed to a new deal with the Mets, which has pushed the Yanks towards various backup plans. They now have agreements in place with Max Fried and Jonathan Loáisiga but there’s still plenty more work to be done. They are seemingly looking for an outfielder, a couple of infielders and more bullpen help. That could come from further free agent signings but they also have a rotation surplus that could help them on the trade market.

One name they have frequently been connected to is Cody Bellinger of the Cubs. He is capable of playing either the outfield or first base, two spots where the Yankees need help, though Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the Yanks probably view Bellinger as a better fit in left field.

The Yanks are expected to move Aaron Judge back to right field, after he served as the club’s primary center fielder while sharing the roster with Soto. Now that Soto is gone, it seems the plan is to give Jasson Domínguez a chance to seize the center field job, with Trent Grisham around as a glove-first insurance option. They would still need a solution in left, since Alex Verdugo is now a free agent, though Bellinger is a possibility there. Bellinger has played left field far less than center or right but there’s no reason to think he couldn’t handle himself over there.

Lining up with the Cubs on value may be an issue, however. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Cubs are hoping for the Yankees to take on most of his remaining contract, while the Yanks think the Cubs should be eating some more money in the deal.

Bellinger had a chance to opt out of his deal last month and didn’t take it, which implies that he thinks his current contract is better than what he could get on the open market, at least for now. He is set to make $27.5MM in 2025, then with a choice between a $5MM buyout or a $25MM salary in 2026. If he were a free agent right now, he could perhaps secure a long-term deal with a guarantee larger than the $52.5MM he’s currently owed, but his current deal has short-term appeal. There is still a path towards him having a good season in 2025, banking $32.5MM this year and returning to the open market.

That would be the best case scenario for the Yankees or any acquiring team. If Bellinger produces at a level commensurate with that salary and leaves, that’s a nice scenario for the upcoming campaign. But there’s also the alternate reality where he disappoints, it overpaid this coming season and then sticks around for 2026 as well.

Bellinger’s inconsistent career makes either path possible to see and teams will have differing opinions about which is more likely or what they are willing to risk for the right to take a chance. At the moment, it seems the Yankees and Cubs aren’t in alignment on the calculations but Heyman says progress has been made this week.

Though he won an MVP award back in 2019, Bellinger struggled immensely in 2021 and 2022 while trying to get back in form after shoulder surgery. His past two seasons have both been good but to varying degrees. He hit .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ in 2023 while stealing 20 bases, but then hit .266/.325/.426 for a 109 wRC+ this year while swiping nine bags.

Another possible target area for the Yanks is third base. They do have Jazz Chisholm Jr. as an in-house possibility there, but he could move him to second base if they were to acquire someone like Nolan Arenado or Alex Bregman for the hot corner.

The Cardinals are exploring the market for Arenado, who has a full no-trade clause. It was reported earlier this week that Arenado is willing to approve trades to six teams. The Yankees weren’t on there but it’s possible that the list wasn’t exhaustive. Feinsand relays that it’s expected Arenado would approve a trade to the Bronx. That’s a logical conclusion since Arenado seems to want to play for a contender and there’s no doubting the Yanks qualify there. They just made it to the World Series and are clearly being aggressive in ramping up for another push next year.

Arenado hasn’t been his usual self over the past two years, however, and it’s fair to wonder if he can get back there now that he’s on the cusp of his 34th birthday. He hit .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+ as recently as 2022 but has slashed a combined .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+ over the past two years. His strong third base defense still makes him an attractive option but, like Bellinger, he’s making notable money. He is set to make $74MM over the next three years, though the Rockies are covering $10MM of that and there are also deferrals.

Bregman is likely viewed as a better option in the short term, but there are complications. He’s going into his age-31 season, making him notably younger than Arenado. He doesn’t quite have the same defensive reputation but is above average in the field. He hit .260/.315/.453 for a 118 wRC+ inf 2024 and was even better after an early-season slump. He hit .280/.329/.509 from May 9 through the end of the year for a 137 wRC+.

But as a free agent, he’s going to command a contract larger than what’s left on Arenado’s deal. MLBTR predicted him for a contract worth $182MM over seven years and the market has been hot so far this winter, so that might be selling him short at this point. There’s also the lingering resentment from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal that was eventually brought to light, creating enough bitterness that general manager Brian Cashman brought it up unprompted during a recent appearance on MLB Network. However, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that Bregman’s involvement in that scandal would not stand in the way of the Yankees pursuing him.

In the bullpen, both Feinsand and Hoch mention that the Yankees are interested in left-hander Tanner Scott for their bullpen. He just wrapped up a season in which he posted a 1.75 earned run average, 28.6% strikeout rate, 12.2% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate. The Yankees have a longstanding affinity for ground ball guys and don’t really have a left-handed reliever on the roster at the moment, with Tim Hill and Tim Mayza now free agents.

Scott would be a great fit but should be popular and could earn a notable contract. MLBTR predicted him for $56MM over four years and the aforementioned hot market could make that estimate low at this point.

As the Yankees assess those possible acquisitions, they are also going to be fielding offers on their starting pitchers. They now have Fried, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman as established rotation options, plus depth pieces like JT Brubaker, Cody Poteet, Will Warren and others. Cortes and Stroman have been in trade rumors before but Hoch reports that Gil and Schmidt have drawn interest and Cashman tells him that the club will be “open-minded to all possibilities.”

It’s unsurprising that Gil and Schmidt would draw interest. Gil just won American League Rookie of the Year after posting a 3.50 ERA for the Yanks. Schmidt had a 2.85 ERA but was limited by injury to just 16 starts. Gil is still in his pre-arbitration years and can be controlled through 2028 while Schmidt is projected for a modest $3.5MM next year by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be controlled through 2027.

Storman and Cortes would have less trade value. Stroman is coming off a middling season in which he posted a 4.31 ERA and got bumped from the rotation by the end of the year. He’s going to make $18MM next year and could also unlock a player option of the same value for 2026 if he pitches 140 innings next year. Cortes is now one year away from free agency with a projected $7.7MM salary next year. He had a decent 3.77 ERA this past year but his strikeout rate fell for the third year in a row and he missed a lot of time due to injuries in 2023.

Though Gil or Schmidt would have more value to another club, that’s also true of the Yankees. Their competitive balance tax number is now estimated at $264MM, per RosterResource, meaning they are already over the second tax tier of $261MM and within striking distance of the $281MM third tier. Going over that third tier leads to escalating penalties and also the club’s top draft pick being pushed back ten spots. That is seen as a line for some clubs but the Yanks just finished 2024 with a CBT number of $313MM, so it may not be any kind of red line.

There are still various paths forward for the Yanks via free agency and trade. They’ve also been linked to Christian Walker, Kyle Tucker and plenty of others. Though it’s now the middle of December, their offseason is still very much in the early stages.

Latest On Kyle Tucker’s Trade Candidacy

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11:15am: Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic confirmed Houston’s interest in Smith, Paredes, and Gil in a report this morning while also noting that the Astros have interest in Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki. Suzuki is a trade candidate in his own right but club brass has downplayed their interest in moving him. That disinclination to part with Suzuki is confirmed by the report from Rosenthal and Rome, who note the Cubs are “highly unlikely” to move him.

10:03am: On the heels of Astros GM Dana Brown acknowledging earlier this week that the club isn’t ruling out a trade of either Kyle Tucker with free agency looming next winter, Joel Sherman of the New York Post described the Yankees as among the teams “most seriously” pursuing the outfielder. Sherman adds that the Cubs are viewed as a “strong player” in Tucker’s market as well, however, while the Giants are also involved. The Phillies have “at least inquired” on Tucker previously, per Sherman, but while they tried to put together a package for the outfielder it’s unclear whether or not they remain involved in his market.

Buzz surrounding the possibility of a Tucker trade has increased in the days since Juan Soto signed his record-breaking deal with the Mets, and as the Yankees turn towards their contingency plans for if they failed to reunite with Soto it’s hardly a surprise that they would be involved in talks regarding another star right fielder. Both New York and Chicago’s interest in Tucker’s services has been previously reported, but Sherman’s report notably suggests that the Astros are prioritizing big-league ready corner infield and starting rotation help in trade talks surrounding Tucker. While the Yankees themselves are lacking in corner infield talent, the club reached an agreement with lefty Max Fried yesterday to create a surplus in their rotation, and Sherman adds the Astros are said to be “very interested” in reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.

The Cubs, by contrast, are flush in the sort of young talent that the Astros seem to be prioritizing. Top infield prospect Matt Shaw is primarily a second baseman by trade but spent the majority of the 2024 season at third base. Sherman notes that Shaw is joined by 2024 first-round Cam Smith and incumbent third baseman Isaac Paredes are “attractive” to the Astros as they run the risk of losing longtime third baseman Alex Bregman in free agency. While not noted in Sherman’s report, it’s also worth noting that Chicago has a number of young pitchers who they could theoretically make available including Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Hayden Wesneski.

As for the other teams mentioned in Sherman’s report, both clubs have at least theoretical fits for Houston’s reported ask as well. The Giants have former top prospect Marco Luciano and power-hitting utility man Tyler Fitzgerald as pieces who may be attractive to the Astros as third base options, while right-handers Hayden Birdsong and Mason Black are among the club’s more interesting young pitchers who could be made available. It’s unclear whether any of those names have been discussed or to what level Houston would be interested in them, but San Francisco sports a deep group of young options in both areas. The infielders figure to be particularly available following the club landing Willy Adames in free agency, and the same could be said of the rotation pieces if they’re successful in their reported pursuit of Corbin Burnes.

The Phillies, meanwhile, are known to be making third Alec Bohm available in trade but may be an imperfect fit for the Astros needs. The infielder has just two years of team control remaining, and two years of a solid but unspectacular third baseman seems unlikely to land one year of a star player like Tucker. It’s possible the Phillies could supplement a package including Bohm with starting pitching, but it would be a shock if the club was willing to part ways with top prospect Andrew Painter and other options like Mick Abel and Seth Johnson are likely far less inspiring to the Astros.

Luis Gil Wins American League Rookie Of The Year

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Yankees right-hander Luis Gil has been named the American League Rookie of the Year, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Colton Cowser of the Orioles finished second while Gil’s teammate Austin Wells finished third.

Gil, 26, made his big league debut back in 2021 despite what his eligibility for this award might imply. The right-hander made seven starts in the majors between the 2021 and ’22 seasons, pitching to a 3.78 ERA in those 33 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for Gil, the start of his career was derailed in early 2022 by Tommy John surgery, and he did not return to a professional mound until the tail end of the minor league season in 2023. Given his long layoff and the fact that the Yankees entered Spring Training with a solid on-paper rotation of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, and Clarke Schmidt, it at first seemed all but certain that the 26-year-old would see his return to the majors further delayed as he began the season in the minors to wait for a big league opportunity.

That opportunity came earlier than anyone expected, however, as Cole missed the entire first half after being diagnosed with a nerve issue in his throwing elbow. That opened the door for Gil to make the Opening Day roster as the club’s fifth starter, and he proceeded to dominate in the early months of the season. In his first twelve starts of the year, Gil delivered a sensational 1.82 ERA with a 31.5% strikeout rate and a 2.98 FIP across 69 1/3 innings of work. That dominant performance was more than enough to earn him a rotation spot even after Cole returned to the rotation, and while Gil’s performance was far more uneven for the remainder of the season he still entered the month of August with a solid 3.20 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 21 starts.

August proved to be a bumpy month for Gil this season, as he made just three abbreviated starts before ultimately winding up on the injured list due to a back strain. That injury may have contributed to his rough finish to the year, as Gil posted a lackluster 4.38 ERA and 5.76 FIP in eight starts between August and September. Of course, it’s hardly a shock that Gil seemed to lose steam late in the year between his long layoff and the fact that his 151 2/3 innings of work were by far a career high. Overall, his final numbers were solid thanks to his otherworldly start to the year, with a 3.50 ERA (117 ERA+) and 4.14 FIP in 29 starts.

The Yankees will not receive a Prospective Promotion Incentive draft pick as a result of Gil’s win, as the right-hander did not appear on the requisite number of top-100 prospect lists in order to qualify for the PPI. That’s not the case for the second place Cowser, who would have earned the Orioles their second consecutive PPI pick and Rookie of the Year win had he won the award. The 24-year-old outfielder turned in an impressive season of his own this year, slashing .242/.321/.447 (120 wRC+) with 24 homers in 153 games while splitting time between left and center field for Baltimore. That impressive showing nearly took home the award, as Cowser received 13 first place votes to Gil’s 15 and actually appeared on 27 ballots as opposed to 26 for Gil.

That split voting continued down the ballot, as Wells finished in third place despite both Athletics closer Mason Miller and Guardians reliever Cade Smith receiving a first place vote a piece while Wells himself did not receive any first place votes. Miller and Smith finished fourth and fifth for the award, respectively, while Red Sox outfielder Wilyer Abreu and Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford finished in sixth and seventh place with a handful of down ballot votes a piece.

Yankees Notes: Pitching Staff, Rizzo, Verdugo

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The Yankees now know they’ll be taking on the Guardians in the ALCS when it begins on Monday, and manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) about the club’s roster plans for the coming series. Of note, Boone indicated that after bringing just 11 pitchers to the ALDS they’ll be expanding their pitching staff headed into the seven-game set, though it’s not yet clear whether they’ll use the maximum 13 pitchers allowed or settle for 12 in order to maintain a more flexible bench.

Regardless of how many pitchers end up coming, the Yankees will need to utilize four rotation arms in the upcoming seven-game series after turning to only Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt in the best-of-five ALDS. Per Hoch, Boone indicated that right-hander Luis Gil will be joining the club’s rotation for the ALCS, though neither he nor Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 with Cole scheduled for a start in Game 2 and Gil expected to start later in the series. That would seemingly leave either Rodon or Schmidt lined up to start the first game of the ALCS.

Schmidt has both the stronger regular season and postseason numbers of the pair, having posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 regular season starts and thrown 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Royals during the ALDS. With that said, Rodon did strike out seven batters in his 3 2/3 innings of work during the ALDS (albeit with four earned runs on his ledger) and would be start Game 1 on an additional day of rest as compared to Schmidt. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman is also theoretically available to start if needed but seems likely to be used as a starter only in an emergency after being moved to the bullpen late in the regular season and being left off the ALDS roster entirely. Stroman could make the ALCS roster as a multi-inning reliever or emergency starter, though it’s also possible the club could want to add another short relief arm such as Mark Leiter Jr. to their bullpen mix headed into the series.

As the Yankees ponder how many pitchers to roster for the ALCS, one potential factor in that decision could be how many roster spots they need to allocate to first base. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo was absent from the ALDS roster after suffering two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season. In his stead, the Yankees relied on a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at first base when facing Kansas City. The pair went a combined 3-for-12 with a double, four walks and four strikeouts during the series and could be turned to once again at first depending on Rizzo’s status.

Rookie Ben Rice was also on the ALDS roster as a first base option but ultimately did not make it into a game, making him a logical cut from the ALCS roster either for the return of Rizzo or the addition of another pitcher. Hoch relays that Boone told reporters the veteran first baseman was making “some progress” as he looks to return in time for the ALCS, though Boone didn’t get into specifics about Rizzo’s status and noted that a final decision about his availability likely would not be made until the club finalizes its roster plans on Monday.

One position that seems fairly set in stone for the Bronx headed into next week’s series, however, is left field. After a lackluster regular season that saw the Yankees briefly turn to top prospect Jasson Dominguez over him down the stretch, Verdugo received the nod in left field headed into the playoffs. While Verdugo went just three-for-14 in the ALDS this year, he did deliver a clutch performance in Game 1 where he notched two hits, knocked in the go-ahead run and made an impressive defensive play in the outfield to rob Royals second baseman Michael Massey of a hit.

Verdugo’s Game 1 heroics were evidently enough to earn him a starting nod in the left field headed into the ALCS, as Boone indicated (as relayed by Hoch) that the outfielder is “likely” to remain the club’s starter in left for their coming series against Cleveland. Dominguez, Trent Grisham, and Duke Ellis were other outfielders included on the club’s ALDS roster, Ellis’s brief cameo a pinch runner in Game 5 was the only appearance any of the three made during the series. If the Yankees ultimately decide to go to 13 pitchers on the roster, cutting one of those outfield options could be another way to free up space for more pitching.

Boone: Yankees Will Be “Creative” With Closer Role

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s rubber match against the Rangers by a 10-6 margin. They’ve lost three straight series overall, dropping two of three against the Nationals, Cardinals and Texas. They had a good chance to secure a series victory and stay ahead of the Orioles in the AL East standings on Tuesday, but Clay Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford in a 7-4 defeat.

It was the 11th save attempt which Holmes has squandered this year, three more than any other pitcher. The Yankees stopped short of officially stripping the right-hander of the closer role, yet it seems they’ll move to more of a committee approach in the short term. Before tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters that he’d be “creative” with the ninth inning (X link via Jack Curry of the YES Network). Boone indicated that Holmes remains in the mix for save chances, though it doesn’t appear that he’ll get every one by default.

To Holmes’ credit, he hasn’t pitched poorly overall in spite of the ugly blown save mark. He carries a solid 3.27 ERA over 55 innings. His 25.2% strikeout percentage and 8% walk rate are fine. Opponents have put nearly two-thirds of their batted balls on the ground. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only teammate Tim Hill has gotten grounders at a higher rate. ERA estimators like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.82) still suggest Holmes has been an excellent pitcher.

Despite the impressive rate stats, Holmes has found himself walking a tightrope at times throughout the year. He was utterly dominant early in the season. He didn’t allow an earned run until May 20, a stretch of 20 games and as many innings. Holmes carries a 5.14 earned run average through 35 frames since that point. The plus command he showed early on has become far shakier in recent weeks. Holmes is headed to free agency for the first time in his career at year’s end.

His ups and downs are magnified by a bullpen that has been underwhelming lately. Yankee relievers rank 22nd in ERA since the All-Star Break. That’s partially on Holmes, but their deadline pickups of Mark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos haven’t panned out. De Los Santos was blasted over five appearances and quickly waived. Leiter has been very homer-prone since landing in the Bronx. Home runs have also been a problem for Luke Weaver and Jake Cousins.

Aside from Holmes, the Yankees have given their highest-leverage work to Tommy Kahnle and Leiter in the second half. Kahnle has pitched well and could pick up some save chances. Boone also left the door open to a potential closing look for either of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt (X link via Curry).

Both pitchers are returning from the injured list this weekend. They’ll each occupy a rotation spot for the upcoming set against the Cubs. The Yankees will carry a six-man rotation into next week before deciding whether to bump someone to relief. Nestor Cortes seems the likeliest candidate for a bullpen move, though he doesn’t have the velocity typically associated with a closer. Gil and Schmidt have more prototypical closing stuff.

Yankees Place Luis Gil On Injured List

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3:05pm: Manager Aaron Boone says that Gil’s back injury is minor and they hope to have him back after the 15-day minimum, per Brendan Kuty of The Athletic on X.

2:30pm: The Yankees announced today that right-hander Luis Gil has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a lower back strain. Fellow right Will Warren was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in a corresponding move.

Gil started last night’s game against the Guardians but lasted just three innings and 78 pitches before he was removed. The club later announced that he departed with low back tightness, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic on X. The club hasn’t provided any updates today about how long they expect Gil to be out, but it seems they expect him to miss at least a couple of weeks, based on this IL placement.

That will interrupt an excellent rookie season for the right-hander, as he has made 24 starts with a 3.39 earned run average. His 12.6% walk rate is on the high side but he’s been able to counteract that with a strong 27.5% strikeout rate.

Gil may have needed a breather at some point anyway, since he is already pushing into uncharted personal territory in terms of workload. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022, missing most of that season as well as 2023. Prior to that, his career high in terms of innings was 108 2/3 in 2021, between the majors and the minors.

Here in 2024, he’s already logged 124 2/3 frames. That means he’s well into personal-high territory, on the heels of two mostly lost seasons. Even though his results have been strong, the Yankees may have been pressed to think about lightening his load somehow, either by optioning him to the minors or transferring him to the bullpen.

The IL stint could perhaps act as that breather, as long as it’s not a terribly significant injury. If he just needs a few weeks on the shelf, perhaps that will allow him to recharge for the stretch run and the postseason.

In the meantime, the Yanks will be down another man in the rotation that’s missing a few guys. Gil will join Clarke Schmidt, JT Brubaker and Cody Poteet on the IL, though some of those guys could be back in the mix soon. Poteet began a rehab assignment last night and Schmidt is expected to start one on Friday, per Kirschner on X.

For now, the rotation consists of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman, with Warren presumably stepping in to replace Gil. Despite the Yankees having a strong record of 73-53 this year, they haven’t had amazing results out of that group. Stroman’s 3.82 ERA is the best of the bunch and he’s probably lucky to have that number. His 16.8% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate are all on pace to be the worst of his career. Cole, Rodón and Cortes each have ERAs of 4.15 or higher. Warren has an 8.59 ERA in his first three major league starts.

The IL placement of Gil has the potential to have ripple effects beyond the 2024 Yankees. He has been in the conversation for American League Rookie of the Year and this absence might push him back in the race. ROY voting now has impacts for clubs and players as certain top prospects can net their clubs an extra draft pick if they are promoted to the Opening Day roster and win the award, while other guys can earn themselves a full year of service time even if they haven’t been up all year.

Gil himself isn’t PPI eligible since he wasn’t a top prospect coming into the year but guys like Colton Cowser and Austin Wells are eligible for the prospect promotion incentive and perhaps now have a greater chance of netting their clubs a draft pick.

Latest On Yankees’ Deadline Plans

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The Yankees swung a major trade earlier today when they acquired second baseman and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins in exchange for a three-prospect package. The addition of Chisholm helps to address an offense that has struggled to produce when anyone other than Juan Soto or Aaron Judge is at the plate, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote in the aftermath of the Chisholm trade this evening that the club plans to continue being aggressive on the trade market as they look to return to the postseason after missing for the first time since 2016 last year.

According to Sherman, the Yankees’ ideal deadline involves acquiring at least two hitters and two relievers. The addition of Chisholm locks up one of those hitting additions, although there’s still plenty of room for improvement around New York’s lineup. Ben Rice has held his own at first base in place of the injured Anthony Rizzo, and Anthony Volpe appears certain to continue getting everyday reps at shortstop, but third base appears to be a clear hole for the club. SNY’s Andy Martino reported earlier today that the Yankees were planning to address the hot corner before the trade deadline. While it’s theoretically possible to imagine Chisholm, a former shortstop with enough arm to handle center field, sliding over to third base for the Yankees, he’s never played the position before as a professional and the club may prefer to keep him in more familiar spots on the diamond for the time being.

If the Yankees do pursue an addition at third base, Sherman suggests that Isaac Paredes of the Rays, Luis Rengifo of the Angels, and Matt Chapman of the Giants could be among the options the club entertains. Chapman’s 111 wRC+ is the lowest of those three options but any of them would be a major upgrade over the paltry 75 wRC+ the club has gotten from its third baseman this year, a figure that ranks third worst in baseball this year. A deal for a third baseman, according to Sherman, could free up the Yankees to move another bat such as second baseman Gleyber Torres or center fielder Trent Grisham in a deal for bullpen help, though it also stands to reason that Chisholm could bounce between the keystone and the outfield depending on matchups, allowing the club to sit struggling lefties like Verdugo and Grisham against southpaws while giving players like Torres and LeMahieu more days off against right-handed starters.

As for the bullpen, the Yankees are known to have interest in Marlins southpaw Tanner Scott, and today’s deal between the sides for Chisholm does not figure to stop the clubs from getting together on another deal before the deadline should they be able to reach in agreement regarding the lefty. That being said, there are plenty of other late-inning relief options that figure to be available this summer. Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan and Rays closer Pete Fairbanks are both among the arms with closing experience rumored to be available. NJ.com’s Randy Miller reported earlier today that the Rays and Yankees were in the midst of “serious talks” regarding a Fairbanks deal, though MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch subsequently reported that nothing is close between the sides regarding Fairbanks.

Failing a reliable late-inning option, there figure to be plenty of other potentially interesting options available such White Sox flamethrower Michael Kopech, Cubs veteran Hector Neris, and Blue Jays righty Trevor Richards. Each of that trio have struggled to varying degrees this year but could be a fairly interesting addition for the Yankees bullpen, particularly if acquired as a secondary addition behind a more impactful arm like Fairbanks, Scott, or Finnegan.

Another possibility for bolstering the club’s relief corps Sherman suggests would be looking at the market for rental starting pitching. As reported by Sherman, the Yankees have inquired after Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty, who sports an excellent 2.95 ERA and 3.10 FIP in 106 2/3 innings of work for Detroit this year, Sherman suggests that such a move could allow the Yankees to move right-hander Luis Gil to the bullpen as a high leverage arm. Such a move would both fortify the relief corps while also helping to limit Gil’s innings. The righty has already thrown 107 1/3 frames this year after throwing just 138 1/3 total innings between 2021 and 2023 due to a variety of injuries.

The idea of preserving Gil’s health by moving him to the bullpen might be an attractive one for New York, although it’s worth noting that it would require a starter of Flaherty’s caliber for the loss of Gil from the rotation mix not to be a downgrade overall. Gil’s first big league action since 2022 has gone exceptionally well as he’s posted a 3.10 ERA with a 3.52 FIP across 20 starts for the Yankees this year while filling out the club’s rotation in the place of injured starters—first Gerrit Cole, then Clarke Schmidt.

Yankees Notes: Bullpen Trade Targets, McMahon, Cole

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The Yankees’ 46-21 record is the best in the American League, and there aren’t many glaring holes on a team that has been outstanding on both the hitting and pitching fronts.  As such, the Yankees’ deadline needs are fairly specific at the moment, as SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Bronx Bombers are looking to reinforce their bullpen with another left-hander, and a right-handed strikeout specialist.

New York entered Sunday’s action with the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball, so the current relief corps is far from a weak link.  However, Martino notes that “evaluators tend to slot [Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez] as the second lefty in an ideal bullpen,” so the Yankees could stand to acquire another southpaw as their top option.

Of the two in-house choices, Gonzalez has a 3.00 ERA over 18 innings but he has been drastically outperforming his peripherals.  Gonzalez’s SIERA is a much less impressive 5.65, as his walk rate (13.5%) is higher than his 10.8% strikeout rate.  Ferguson has something of the opposite issue, with a 5.03 ERA but a 3.62 SIERA in 19 2/3 innings, with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk rate.

On the right-handed side of the equation, a righty pitcher that can miss bats would be a nice complement to closer Clay Holmes, who himself throws from the right side.  Holmes is having another excellent year with a 1.23 ERA and 19 saves over 29 1/3 innings, though Holmes is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a staggering 69.4% grounder rate.  His strikeout rate is only a bit above the league average, however, so having more of a strikeout-focused power arm for certain high-leverage situation would allow the Yankees to save Holmes for the ninth inning.

As Martino observes, the Yankees’ knack for getting great results out of unheralded relievers means that the club might not need to pursue bigger names available at the deadline in order to fill these bullpen needs.  They might not even necessarily need to go outside the organization to find the right-handed strikeout artist, as Luis Gil might eventually end up in the bullpen as part of New York’s desire to conserve his innings.  Gil pitched only 29 2/3 total frames in the majors and minors over the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and with 75 innings already on his ledger in 2024, it remains to be seen how much the Yankees will want him to pitch in the regular season if they’re taking the longer view of wanting Gil available throughout what they hope will be a deep postseason run.

Beyond the bullpen, both corner infield positions could be potential target areas, though Martino figures the Bombers will give the struggling Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu more time to turn things around.  LeMahieu has only played 10 games since a season-opening stint on the 60-day injured list, so it is understandable that the veteran needs more time to knock off the rust.

This isn’t to say that New York wouldn’t be open to corner infield help already, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Yankees are among the teams who “would love to get their hands on” Ryan McMahon.  Adding McMahon would be more than just a short-term strike, as the third baseman is still owed roughly $51MM through the end of the 2027 season as per the terms of the six-year, $70MM extension he signed with the Rockies in March 2022.

While the Rox aren’t in contention and will sell at the deadline to some extent, moving McMahon is the type of bigger-picture move Colorado isn’t likely to make.  Indeed, earlier reports indicated that the Rockies aren’t likely to move the third baseman, as he is still viewed as a building block on the roster.

In other Yankees news, Gerrit Cole completed his second rehab start with Double-A Somerset today.  The AL Cy Young Award winner allowed one run on two hits over 4 2/3 innings, while recording four strikeouts.  Cole’s 57 pitches represented a small bump up from the 45 pitches thrown in his first rehab outing, and his velocity reached as high as 96mph, according to Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post.

Cole described the appearance to Dunleavy and other reporters as a “pretty good day, still got things to work on…Wish I would’ve been able to crisp up the location quicker. Really, that was about it.”  Naturally Cole wants to be as ready as possible for his 2024 debut, so while he is set for one more rehab start, Cole wasn’t yet sure if he’ll require another outing after that.  The Yankees obviously aren’t going to rush Cole in any regard, and the rotation’s great work in Cole’s absence means there isn’t even any immediate need for Cole to return to the big leagues.

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