Rosenthal On Red Sox, Yankees, Garza
The Red Sox will "explore their options" with Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, and David Ortiz, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. They're also "already checking into" Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, possibly with the idea of moving Jacoby Ellsbury back to center field and making Mike Cameron a pricey fourth outfielder. Rosenthal's other musings…
- Rosenthal's quick math suggests the Yankees would have to stay out of the Crawford/Werth derby – barring a payroll increase – if they sign Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Cliff Lee.
- Rosenthal finds the offseason trade market for starting pitching unimpressive. Though Matt Garza is "drawing long looks" from other teams, the Rays are more likely to trade a starter after the 2011 season. As for Royals ace Zack Greinke, the team might be inclined to let him rebuild value in the first half. Earlier this month, MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named five other starters who might be available this winter.
- John Hart, Stan Kasten, or Sandy Alderson could be a fit for the Mets if they look to add an experienced executive above Omar Minaya, speculates Rosenthal. Rosenthal's source does not see Kasten replacing Bob Dupuy as baseball's second in command.
- Felipe Lopez wouldn't net the Red Sox a draft pick if his next deal is of the minor league variety, notes Rosenthal.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Mets, Park, Garza, Wieters
On this date four years ago, the Mets locked up franchise cornerstone David Wright to a six-year deal worth $55MM guaranteed. A club option for 2013 could put another $15MM in his pocket, and he's already earned an extra $300K in award based incentives. Wright, just 23 at the time and now a .307/.387/.517 career hitter, would have become a free agent after this season had he not opted for the long-term security. Can't say I blame him.
Here's a look at what's being written in the baseball corner of the blogging universe…
- Mets Paradise hosts a post-trade deadline roundtable discussion with fellow Mets bloggers.
- 1 Blue Jays Way interviews Toronto prospect Danny Farquhar.
- NPB Tracker recaps the deals made on the July 31st trade deadline in Japan.
- River Ave. Blues wonders what would have happened if Alex Rodriguez hadn't opted out of his contract after the 2007 season.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. defends the Pirates' Chan Ho Park pick-up.
- Bright House Sports Network thinks Matt Garza's time with the Rays may soon come to an end.
- Camden Crazies looks at what's wrong with Matt Wieters.
- SD Sports Net deciphers the Padres' deadline deals.
- More Hardball breaks down the young players the Pirates have coming up through the system.
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Will The Rays Trade Garza Or Shields This Winter?
It's pure speculation, but rival executives who spoke to ESPN's Buster Olney expect the Rays to shop Matt Garza or James Shields in the offseason given a potential rotation surplus. Rotation surpluses typically disappear very quickly, but let's dive into this possibility anyway.
Garza, 27 in November, has a 4.11 ERA, 7.0 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 this year with 20 home runs allowed in 135.6 innings. Olney notes that Garza has a higher ceiling than Shields, but lacks the cost certainty. Garza will enter his second arbitration year after earning $3.35MM in 2010. I estimate he'll make around $6MM next year. Garza is under team control through 2013, though most good young starters sign extensions instead of reaching free agency going year-by-year.
Shields, 29 in December, has a 4.54 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.0 BB/9 this year with 22 home runs allowed in 142.6 innings. Shields and Fausto Carmona are the only two pitchers I've found with three club options in their contracts. Shields can be controlled through 2014.
Both pitchers are controllable, under 30, and healthy. Both have succeeded in the AL East. Teams like the Nationals, Mets, Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers, Tigers, and Twins would have to inquire if Garza or Shields becomes available this winter.
Adam Dunn Rumors: Tuesday
New teams inquired about Nationals slugger Adam Dunn within the past day, tweets Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi tweets that the Nats are more likely to trade Dunn than Josh Willingham, while ESPN's Jayson Stark hears that Washington might trade one but not both.
Check back throughout the day for updates, as the Nationals discuss possible deals with other teams and consider keeping their first baseman in Washington long-term:
- Dunn wants a four-year deal, but would consider a three-year offer if the Nationals make him one, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. Dunn explained to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he does his best to ignore trade rumors and understands the business side of the game.
- The Nationals want Daniel Hudson plus one of Jordan Danks, Tyler Flowers or Brent Morel for Dunn, a source told Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago. The Nationals offered Dunn for Gordon Beckham, but the White Sox turned the proposal down.
- Another source told Levine that six teams are bidding for Dunn: The White Sox, Angels, Tigers, Rangers and two NL clubs. As you can see below, the Rockies and Giants have been linked to Dunn, but it’s not certain that those two teams are pursuing him now.
- The Rays like Dunn, but don't want to push him into a DH role, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. As much as the Rays likes Dunn's bat, they don't want to risk conflict with the slugger. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports reports that the Nationals asked the Rays for Matt Garza last week. Despite those demands, the Rays will keep an eye on Dunn and Jayson Werth this week, according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
- The Giants also expressed interest in Dunn, according to Knobler.
- Sherman says the Rockies talked about Dunn, but don't like his poor defense.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Nationals have yet to offer Dunn an extension in any form, so the trade market is likely to heat up. Rosenthal and colleague Jon Paul Morosi name the White Sox as the most serious suitor, and add that the Tigers, Rangers, and Yankees maintain interest.
Cafardo’s Latest: Arroyo, Carmona, Garza, Lilly
In this week's installment of his Baseball Notes feature, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the 2006 deal that sent Bronson Arroyo to Cincinnati for Wily Mo Pena. "I'm sure it's not one [trade] that Theo has on his mantle at home," Arroyo jokes, before going on to say that he'd love to stay with the Reds past this season. The team holds an $11MM 2011 option ($2MM buyout) for Arroyo. Here are Cafardo's other notes of interest:
- The Brewers and the Rangers, before they acquired Cliff Lee, were among the teams "sniffing around" Fausto Carmona.
- Cafardo wouldn't be shocked if the Rays were willing to discuss trading Matt Garza, with Jeremy Hellickson waiting in the wings (2.21 ERA in 105.2 Triple-A innings). In exchange for an impact bat, the Rays appear more inclined to deal major league players than prospects. A National League scout tells Cafardo that the team has been "very willing to include B.J. Upton in trade talks" and may even think about moving Wade Davis, if the price was right.
- The Rays also have some interest in Ted Lilly, who could be a fit for the Twins and Tigers as well.
- Cafardo thinks the Red Sox should pursue Evan Meek if the Pirates make him available.
- Lou Piniella's agent Alan Nero says that the Cubs' skipper will definitely finish out the season, but isn't sure about Piniella's future past this year.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Garza, Pierzynski, Padres
Eleven years ago today, Fernando Tatis became the first and only player in baseball history to hit two grand slams in one inning. Amazingly, both came off Chan Ho Park, who allowed 11 runs while recording eight outs. Tatis went on to hit .298/.404/.553 with 34 homeruns for the Cardinals that season, easily the best of the big league career.
Here are a handful of links from around the blogosphere…
- Maddon's Mission wonders if the Rays' handling of Matt Garza tells us about their plans for him in the future.
- The Pale Hose Pariah concludes that A.J. Pierzynski is worth a grade-B position player prospect for a couple of grade-C pitching prospects in a trade.
- Pittsburgh Lumber Co. notes that Lastings Milledge has shown improved on-field maturity since joining the Pirates.
- The Friarhood says the Padres recent winning streak puts any trade talks on hold.
- And Counting makes the case for Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano being underpaid.
- Capitol Avenue Club visualizes the Braves' proverbial five-year plan.
- Around The Basepath thinks an worldwide draft is a great idea.
- Crashburn Alley takes stock of the Phillies' roster.
If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.
Players To Avoid Arbitration: Tuesday
Noon ET today was the deadline for both the team and player to submit their salary figures for arbitration, however the two sides can come to an agreement at any point before the actual hearing. The hearings are scheduled for the first week of February.
We'll keep track of the players who avoid arbitration today by agreeing to deals here. Make sure you check back in for updates, and be sure to click the "Continue Reading" link to see today's full list of settlements. Yesterday's list can be found here.
- Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels avoided arbitration with Mike Napoli and Reggie Willits by signing the duo to one-year deals. Napoli will earn $3.6MM in 2010 with a $100K bonus if he makes 120 starts. Willits' contract is worth $625K.
- Zach Duke's one-year contract with Pittsburgh is worth $4.3MM with no performance bonuses, tweets Dejan Kovacevic of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- The Padres and reliever Mike Adams have agreed to a contract, reports MLB.com's Corey Brock (via Twitter). Brock's follow-up tweet says Adams' deal is worth $1MM, virtually splitting the difference between San Diego's $875K offer and Adams' $1.2MM demands.
- Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that the Twins have agreements in place with all eight of their arbitration eligible players. In a follow-up tweet, Christensen reports that Francisco Liriano agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.6MM and Jesse Crain agreed to a one-year contract worth $2MM.
- Marc Carig of the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports that the Mets avoided arbitration with reliever Sean Green (via Twitter). The one-year deal was worth $975K, according to the New York Daily News' Anthony McCarron.
- The Tigers avoided arb with Gerald Laird and Zach Miner as well according to James Jahnke of The Detroit Free Press. MLB.com's Jason Beck tweets the details on the one-year contracts: Laird will earn $3.95MM, Miner will earn $950K.
- Christensen tweets that the Twins avoided arb with Brendan Harris, signing him to a two year deal worth $3.2MM with another $650K in possible incentives.
- The Tigers and Bobby Seay avoided arbitration according to MLB.com's Jason Beck (via Twitter), agreeing to a one year deal worth $2.475MM.
- Thesier tweets that Matt Guerrier agreed to a one year deal worth $3.15MM with the Twins, avoiding arb.
- Amalie Benjamin of The Boston Globe tweets that the Red Sox have avoided arbitration with Ramon Ramirez and Manny Delcarmen, with Delcarmen getting $905K plus incentives according to Joe McDonald of The Providence Journal. Boston avoided arb with Jonathan Papelbon as well.
Odds & Ends: Kouzmanoff, Taguchi, Draft
Some links on this frosty Saturday night…
- Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic spoke to Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes, who took full responsibility for Eric Byrnes' three-year, $30MM contract. Arizona designated Byrnes for assignment on Friday.
- The Rays have four remaining arbitration-eligible players in Jason Bartlett, Matt Garza, J.P. Howell, and B.J. Upton. The club will stick with their policy of cutting off negotiations after exchanging figures, which happens at noon on Tuesday, writes Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. Tampa Bay does this to try to bring about a settlement and to avoid settling at an artificial midpoint between the two figures.
- Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com isn't terribly upset that the O's weren't the club to land Kevin Kouzmanoff. Kubatko understands frustrations over the Orioles' lack of production at third, but notes that the 28-year-old's offensive production was nothing to write home about in 2009. Kouzmanoff hit .255/.302/.420 with 18 HRs for the Padres last season.
- As we heard earlier today, a committee is being formed to work on changes to the amateur draft. The committee will look into making the draft worldwide and instituting a slotting system. Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues doesn't see any changes being made until after 2011, when the collective bargaining agreement expires.
- The Orix Buffaloes are close to signing So Taguchi, according to a report from Sponichi passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (via Twitter). The 40-year-old emerged with the Cubs at the end of last season, making 12 plate appearances in six games.
Discussion: Next Young Pitcher To Be Extended
One of the game's best young pitchers signed a contract extension yesterday that will take him to his 30th birthday, as the Marlins finally locked up Josh Johnson to a four-year deal worth $39MM. The extension mirrors the deal Kansas City gave Zack Greinke before last season, and is just the latest example of a club willing to assume the risk of a breakdown in exchange for cost certainty.
Paul Maholm, Scott Baker, Ubaldo Jimenez, Adam Wainwright, Matt Cain, Jon Lester, and James Shields are other young arms who have sacrificed the superior earning power of the arbitration process for financial security in recent years. Who do the readers of MLBTR think the next young pitcher to agree to an extension could be?
Leaving aside the big names like Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, and Felix Hernandez, here's a few pitchers who already have, or will soon enter into their arbitration years…
- Yovani Gallardo – the Brewers' young ace struck out 204 batters and allowed just 150 hits in 185.2 innings last season, and will be arb eligible following the 2010 season.
- Matt Garza – one of Tampa's many young power arms, Garza has struck out 7.3 batters per nine innings in his career, and has made 62 starts over the last two years. He's arb eligible as a Super Two this offseason.
- Jair Jurrjens – perhaps the best pitcher no one talks about, Jurrjens led the NL in starts last year and owns a 3.21 career ERA. He'll be up for arbitration after the 2010 season.
- Wandy Rodriguez – his breakthrough season last year included a 3.06 K/BB ratio and 193 strikeouts in 205.2 innings. Wandy is arb eligible for the second time this offseason after earning $2.6MM in 2009.
Odds & Ends: Chapman, Bradley, Rays, Twins
Links for Monday…
- Offers have begun rolling in for Aroldis Chapman, says ESPN's Keith Law. Also, MLB.com's Carrie Muskat says the Cubs talked to Chapman's agent but he "doesn't fit in their budget."
- ESPN's Peter Gammons tweets that Red Sox Director of Player Development Mike Hazen declined Jed Hoyer's offer to become the Padres' assistant GM.
- MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers "refused to rule out the possibility of Milton Bradley coming back to Texas." Sullivan wasn't willing to allow the possibility a month ago, when he wrote, "The Rangers are not interested in Bradley. Sources have made that clear. He is not coming back. So stop it." Back in September, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram said Bradley "pushed himself way down the wish list with his comments, and probably pushed himself off it completely."
- R.J. Anderson of DRays Bay reflects on the Matt Garza–Delmon Young trade.
- Aaron Gleeman runs through free agent second baseman options for the Twins. Also check out our free agent and trade candidates posts for second base.
- Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times talked to former Rays GM Chuck LaMar about the trade that sent Chad Gaudin to the Blue Jays for Kevin Cash.