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Michael Conforto

Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers

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The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”

Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.

Some more notes from around the game…

  • The recent passing of a ’millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
  • With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
  • Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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The Rangers made Michael Conforto an offer over the summer and have maintained interest in the free-agent outfielder throughout the offseason, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports. That interest has led to recent talks with agent Scott Boras, who said earlier in the offseason that Conforto was eyeing a two-year contract with an opt-out opportunity after the first season.

Texas isn’t alone in courting Conforto. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that both the Blue Jays and Mets are still showing interest as well. (The Mets, of course, are the only team for which Conforto has ever played.) Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post adds (via Twitter) that the Rockies checked in but are not seen as a likely landing spot. Saunders lists the Cubs, Marlins and Rangers as teams more prominently involved in the Conforto bidding. Seattle and Houston were linked to Conforto earlier in the offseason, though the Astros’ reunion with Michael Brantley seemingly takes them out of the Conforto mix.

The Rangers are the most commonly cited suitor for Conforto, though that hardly ensures that he’ll be suiting up at Globe Life Field in 2023. Still, Texas has had a clear need for at least one outfielder all season but has thus far focused its free-agent and trade pursuits on pitchers. Conforto, 30 in March, would be a risky investment on a multi-year deal but would come with substantial upside; the former first-round pick posted a combined .265/.369/.495 batting line with 97 home runs, 86 doubles, three triples, a 12.7% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate in 1959 plate appearances from 2017-20.

Conforto’s platform year before reaching free agency, however, was disappointing. He followed that strong four-year run with a more pedestrian .232/.344/.384 batting line in his age-28 season in 2021. Conforto still rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, banking on a team being willing to forfeit a draft pick based on the strength of his overall track record. That didn’t happen prior to last winter’s lockout, though, and Conforto went on to suffer an offseason shoulder injury that required surgery in the spring. Despite interest from the Astros and the apparent offer from the Rangers, Conforto did not sign over the summer, instead ostensibly preferring to wait for an offseason deal and a fully healthy return to baseball. (Had he played last summer, it’s believed he’d have been limited to designated hitter duties.)

Rosenthal suggests that some teams are concerned about Conforto’s throwing in the wake of that surgery, though he’s currently throwing from a distance of 150 feet. For the Rangers, Conforto could potentially slot into left field, given Adolis Garcia’s presence in right field. That might help to mitigate some concerns about his arm strength — if Texas even has any at the moment. Rangers left fielders were far and away the worst in MLB last season, batting a combined .186/.253/.255. Every one of those rate stats ranked dead-last in the Majors, as did the resulting 47 wRC+. Texas, incredibly, gave 13 different players a look in left field last season.

While the Rangers stand as an obvious and perhaps the best fit for Conforto, his other reported suitors are all sensible landing spots, to varying degrees. The Blue Jays have a nearly all-right-handed lineup and have seen Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s offensive contributions wane in recent seasons; Gurriel still hit for a strong .291 average in 2022, but his power vanished and his defensive grades have never been particularly strong. GM Ross Atkins said just yesterday that his focus was shifting to upgrading the offense — ideally by adding a lefty bat who could slot into the outfield. Conforto checks a lot of boxes for them. As with the Rangers, Conforto could likely slot into left field with Toronto, lessening potential concerns about his throwing arm.

The Mets, meanwhile, already have a crowded roster and a bloated payroll, but owner Steve Cohen and GM Billy Eppler seem undeterred by either of those factors. Conforto could factor into Buck Showalter’s lineup as a left fielder and designated hitter, perhaps pushing Daniel Vogelbach into more of a bench role than the platoon DH role for which he’s currently set. It might not be an especially clean fit, but the Mets perhaps feel they’d be a deeper and better team by adding Conforto, which could well bump Darin Ruf (who struggled following his acquisition over the summer) or high-priced catcher James McCann from the roster.

The Cubs’ outfield is largely set, with Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki lined up from left to right, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Conforto to join the mix and rotate through the outfield corners and designated hitter. Neither the Rockies nor Marlins are ideal fits, but it’s nevertheless notable that both have looked into a potential match with Conforto. Both teams need center fielders more than a corner outfielder, however. Colorado could push Randal Grichuk to center, but he’s generally graded out as a better defender in right field. Miami, meanwhile, already has a pair of corner outfielders — Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler — in search of a rebound, though the latter figures to spend the bulk of his time at designated hitter in 2023.

Between a fair number of teams with interest and this offseason’s rash of free-agent deals that allow players to opt back into the market as early as next offseason, Conforto’s chances of reaching that goal of a multi-year deal with an opt-out seems attainable.

Marlins, Rangers Interested In Michael Conforto

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6:41pm: The Rangers are also involved in the Conforto market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Texas general manager Chris Young told reporters coming out of the Winter Meetings they were hoping to address left field, where rookies Bubba Thompson, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith look like the in-house favorites for playing time. That corner outfield vacancy makes Conforto a fairly obvious target, particularly with Andrew Benintendi’s five-year deal with the White Sox taking the top free agent left fielder off the board.

1:09pm: The Marlins have shown some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman also lists the Astros and Cubs, both of whom have been previously linked to the Boras Corporation client, as teams with interest.

Miami entered the offseason searching for offensive help. They’ve done essentially nothing thus far, with the only noteworthy move being the non-tender of Brian Anderson. The Marlins hit just .230/.294/.363 in 2022, finishing 27th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Spacious Marlins Park hasn’t done their batters any favors, but Miami’s offense was one of the league’s worst even after accounting for home environment. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, the Marlins were 12 percentage points worse than the average hitting team — the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

Most of the Miami offense underperformed, with second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. their only standout hitter. That gives general manager Kim Ng and her staff myriad positions they could look to address. The outfield, which Miami thought they’d fixed last offseason, posed particular problems. Avisaíl García fell flat with a career-worst .224/.266/.317 showing in the first season of a four-year free agent deal. Jorge Soler, inked to a three-year deal after a massive postseason showing in 2021, managed just a .207/.295/.400 mark with subpar defense in left field.

The Marlins gave extended auditions to young players Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz. Neither ran away with an everyday job, with both reaching base at a sub-.300 clip. Sánchez and De La Cruz each showed interesting power potential, but they both struck out more often than average while walking at a subpar clip. Of that group, only Sánchez — who spent most of the season’s second half in Triple-A after being optioned — hits left-handed.

Bringing in a lefty-swinging outfielder makes plenty of sense, and Conforto’s one of the more interesting options available. The 29-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from an offseason injury to his right shoulder that required surgery. He’s not expected to have any health limitations by next spring, but the lost year raises some questions about how he’ll respond after such a long layoff.

Conforto wasn’t even at his best before the surgery, as his 2021 campaign was his worst in a while. He hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances for the division-rival Mets in 2021. That’d still be an upgrade over the production Miami received from any of their outfielders last season, but it’s well shy of the .265/.369/.495 cumulative line Conforto had posted from 2017-20.

With his value at a low ebb, Conforto is looking for a bounceback opportunity. Agent Scott Boras has suggested he expects Conforto land a multi-year guarantee this offseason, one that allows him to opt out and retest free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign. Boras reiterated that sentiment when speaking with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com yesterday (Twitter link). That’s a rather lofty goal for a player coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if a team is willing to guarantee him multiple years.

While Conforto’s bat would be a welcome addition to the Miami lineup, he’s not an ideal fit from a positional perspective. He hasn’t played a single inning of center field since 2019, and his early-career defensive metrics there were very poor. Conforto’s a solid defender in the corner outfield, but he’s even less likely to be an option up-the-middle after surgery on his throwing shoulder. Miami reportedly prefers to push Soler more fully into designated hitter work in 2023, so Conforto and García could take the corners. That’d require leaning on Sánchez, De La Cruz or JJ Bleday again in center field, where each player is probably miscast. Of course, with an already shallow center field market having been picked clean, the Marlins may no longer have a viable alternative to rolling out another mediocre defensive outfield.

The Astros have been tied to Conforto on a number of occasions this offseason, as they’re reportedly looking to install a left-handed bat into the corner outfield mix. The Cubs were previously linked to Conforto as well, although that was before they signed Cody Bellinger to play center field. That filled Chicago’s outfield, which already contained Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corners. The Cubs don’t have a great option at designated hitter, though, which is presumably where they’re eyeing Conforto at this point. Seattle and both New York franchises were also linked to the Oregon State product at points this offseason.

Miami’s facing some competition in the Conforto market, but he shouldn’t be unattainable from a financial perspective. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote in September that owner Bruce Sherman was willing to sign off on a fairly modest payroll bump, but they’ve yet to dip into free agency thus far. The Fish have reportedly put forth an offer to former Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who remains unsigned. Heyman writes Miami appears willing to make a two-year commitment to the 38-year-old, who’s coming off a .278/.350/.438 showing in Los Angeles.

Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto

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Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.

There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.

Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.

On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.

It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.

The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.

Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.

Cubs Interested In Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger

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Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.

Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.

He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.

After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.

Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.

Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.

For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.

After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.

The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.

As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.

Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.

Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.

Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.

Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets

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The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets.  In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.

In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player.  As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere.  For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract.  Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.

Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts).  Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix.  DJ LeMahieu’s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.

If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place.  However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ’on different tracks’ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players.  Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.

Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon.  While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.

The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold.  Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five.  Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues.  Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.

Mets Have Interest In Andrew Heaney, Michael Conforto

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Free agency is officially underway, and with the Mets staring down multiple holes in the rotation, bullpen and lineup, they’ll be among the sport’s more active teams again this winter. A pair of early targets for the team include left-hander Andrew Heaney, per Newsday’s Tim Healey, and old friend Michael Conforto, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.

The interest in Heaney is sensible on many levels. First and foremost, the Mets currently face the possibility of losing Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to free agency. Heaney certainly isn’t going to offset a potential deGrom loss, but the Mets figure to cast a wide net in sifting through starting pitching options, as it’s unlikely that they’ll come to a middle ground and re-sign all three of their rotation free agents. Secondly, GM Billy Eppler knows Heaney quite well, having spent the 2015-20 seasons as the Angels’ general manager; Heaney, while originally acquired when Jerry Dipoto was the Halos’ GM, was with the Angels for all six of those seasons.

Beyond the sheer need in the rotation and the familiarity with the pitcher and person in Heaney, his 2022 breakout with the Dodgers was nothing short of remarkable. A pair of shoulder troubles limited him to 72 2/3 innings, and that’s a concern for any pitcher but especially one with Heaney’s lengthy injury history. However, when he was able to take the mound, the 31-year-old southpaw worked to a tidy 3.10 ERA with the second-best strikeout rate (35.5%) and best swinging-strike rate (16.8%) of the 188 pitchers who tossed at least 70 frames in 2022.

Heaney’s emergence came on the heels of the Dodgers scrapping nearly his entire arsenal. Heaney continued throwing a four-seamer he debuted in 2021 — he’d previously used a sinker as his primary heater — but dumped his changeup and curveball in favor of a new slider that proved to be an absolute knockout offering. Heaney was almost all four-seamers and sliders in 2022, with the lone exception being a 5% usage rate on the aforementioned changeup (which he once threw at a 23% clip).

As for Conforto, a reunion makes some sense — though only if the Mets lose Brandon Nimmo to another club (or feel that his early asking price is simply beyond the pale). The longtime Mets slugger had a down season (by his standards) in 2021, though he still checked in as a slightly above-average offensive contributor. Unfazed by the dip in production, Conforto rejected a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal but found a frosty market before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery and ultimately kept him out of action for the entire 2022 season.

Ostensibly, that would set the table for a one-year, make-good deal wherever he signs, but agent Scott Boras has already suggested that Conforto is likely to target a two-year deal with an opt-out — similar to the structure that Carlos Rodon had with the Giants in 2022 (presumably at a decidedly lower total than Rodon’s $44MM). Whether such an offer materializes  can’t be known so early in a months-long free agent period.

Signing Conforto would likely mean sliding Starling Marte over to center and bidding farewell to Nimmo, or perhaps committing to Conforto in more of a DH role. The latter scenario might not appeal to a 29-year-old who’s looking to reestablish himself as a credible all-around player, however, and it seems unlikely the Mets would jump the market to sign any outfielder who’d push Marte to center before having a full grasp on Nimmo’s situation.

Payroll shouldn’t be much of an issue for a Mets club that topped $280MM in 2022 and approached $300MM in luxury-tax obligations. Still, it’s worth noting that entering the market, the team projects to a payroll of about $238MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with a bit less than $249MM on the luxury ledger. Finding a taker for Dominic Smith or Darin Ruf (or simply non-tendering the former) could slightly drop those figures, but the Mets are already deep into luxury territory and figure to have little qualms about surpassing the newly implemented fourth tier of penalization for a second straight year.

Boras On Michael Conforto’s Free Agency

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Michael Conforto didn’t play a single inning or even sign with a team following last year’s qualifying offer and eventual shoulder surgery due to an offseason injury. However, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he nevertheless feels the market can bring about a multi-year deal for his client. Boras suggests Conforto could seek a contract at least loosely modeled after the two-year deal he negotiated for Carlos Rodon with the Giants, which allowed Rodon to opt out after year one. Unsurprisingly, Boras characterizes the interest in Conforto as “so broad,” adding that he’s throwing from 120 feet and is able to generate full extension in his swing.

While Boras and Conforto could seek a contract structured similarly to that of Rodon, there are a few caveats worth emphasizing. First and foremost, Conforto can’t reasonably hope to match the $22MM annual value on Rodon’s contract and would surely be in line for a lower rate of base pay. Secondly, it should be noted that the second-year player option on Rodon’s contract was conditional; he needed to first reach 110 innings pitched before gaining the right to opt out of the deal. Any team taking the risk of signing Conforto for multiple years might prefer that he fully “earn” the right to opt out rather than make it a flat guarantee. Such clauses are generally dependent on playing time, be it in the form of games played or total plate appearances.

The comments on Conforto come after rumors percolated throughout the season that the longtime Mets outfielder would sign on with a club as a DH down the stretch, after he was detached from draft pick compensation following July’s 2022 draft. Such a deal never materialized, though Sherman notes the Astros had interest in signing him.

Conforto’s continued free agency is sure to be one of the more interesting cases to follow this offseason. Between his lost season in 2022 and a down season in 2021 where he slashed just .232/.344/.384 with a barely above-average wRC+ of 106, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Conforto. However, that’s also the case with many of his free-agent peers on the corner outfield market. While Aaron Judge’s likely record-setting free agency highlights the class, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, and Michael Brantley all join Conforto in free agency. Of the bunch, only Profar managed a full, healthy season.

Conforto’s significant upside as a 29-year-old (30 in March) who has flashed All-Star caliber production should still create intrigue among clubs. From 2017-20, Conforto slashed an impressive .265/.369/.495 and looked to be establishing himself as one of the league’s best right fielders. It’s easy to see why a team would want to take a chance on someone with his past success, but he has competition in even that regard. Joey Gallo represents an option with similar upside, less injury concerns, and the ability to play center field if needed, though his extreme, high-strikeout profile and ghastly 2023 results are serious concerns of their own that could make Conforto a more attractive option.

Fortunately for Conforto, just as there’s a large class of quality corner outfield free agents, there’s an equally large list of teams that will likely be looking for outfield help in 2023. Whether they re-sign Judge or not, the Yankees will likely look for an upgrade on Aaron Hicks in left field so they can keep Giancarlo Stanton entrenched at DH. The White Sox are in desperate need for outfield help, with only Luis Robert fully locked into everyday outfield opportunities as Eloy Jimenez looks likely to spend more time at DH next year and Andrew Vaughn could replace Jose Abreu at first base going forward. The Rangers will likely be interested in adding to an outfield that lacks certainty beyond Adolis Garcia and Leody Taveras, the Padres may look to replace the departing Profar externally, and the Blue Jays could certainly do with an upgrade to their current tandem of Raimel Tapia and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field. Even Conforto’s former team in Queens could be in search of outfield help this offseason, with center fielder Brandon Nimmo now a free agent and Starling Marte capable of sliding over to center without issue.

Michael Conforto Drawing Post-Draft Interest

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On MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents for this past offseason, 49 of them eventually reached deals, with outfielder Michael Conforto being the lone exception. It was later revealed that the reason he hadn’t signed was that he suffered a shoulder injury during the lockout, which would eventually require season-ending surgery.

Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, later walked that “season-ending” descriptor back in May, saying that there was a chance that Conforto could return late in the season. While that opened up the possibility of some team signing an injured Conforto and hoping for him to recuperate ahead of schedule, it was never going to happen prior to the draft since Conforto turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets. Taking a risk on Conforto might have some appeal, but not so much that any team would forfeit a meaningful draft pick for the pleasure.

Now that the draft has been completed, that has become a moot point. Signing Conforto is no longer connected to any kind of forfeiture of draft picks or bonus pool money. Naturally, Conforto is now garnering more interest, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman speaks to Boras, who says that he got four phone calls about Conforto after the draft and that “there is very strong interest by some very good teams.”

When asked to list the teams that were interested, Boras said “They’re all in the United States except one,” hinting that the Blue Jays are one of the teams at the table. The involvement of the Jays isn’t terribly surprising, given that they had previous interest in the offseason as part of their desire to add left-handed hitting. Around the same time that the news of Conforto’s injury came out, the Jays acquired a different lefty bat in Raimel Tapia. Since Tapia has hit .275/.300/.388 this season for a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below league average, it stands to reason that Toronto still thinks they can upgrade in that department.

Of course, even if Conforto is able to return to health before season’s end, it’s fair to wonder which version he will be. After an amazing stretch of play from 2017-2020 wherein he hit .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133, he followed that up with a down year in 2021. His batting line last year was .232/.344/.384 for a wRC+ of 106, still above average but a far cry from his previous seasons. Given that disappointing season, followed by shoulder surgery, a lengthy layoff and then a rehab process of some kind, it’s hard to know how effective he can be in the coming months.

Of course, from Conforto’s perspective, he’d surely love the ability to get back on the field and show some signs of life before the offseason. As a free agent marketing himself to teams for the 2023 season, there would be a big difference between getting healthy in December and holding a showcase versus playing in real games, even if it’s only a handful.

Signing an injured player comes with risks but is not unprecedented. For instance, in August of last year, the Dodgers signed Cole Hamels for $1MM plus incentives as he was working his way back from various injuries. In that case, it didn’t work out, as Hamels was shut down for the season just two weeks later. With less than two weeks to go until the trade deadline, any team looking for an extra bat that comes up short could turn to Conforto as a risky fallback option.

Boras: Michael Conforto Not Ruling Out Late-Season Return

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Michael Conforto was the most notable unsigned free agent of this past offseason. The outfielder rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets and didn’t find a deal to his liking before the league locked out the players in early December. The following month, he injured his right shoulder during training and remains unsigned.

Conforto underwent surgery last month, and reports at the time suggested the procedure would end his 2022 season before it began. That may not actually be the case, as his agent Scott Boras now tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post it’s not out of the question Conforto could make it back to the majors by September. “There is a possibility the swinging modality can be back to normal at a much earlier date than the throwing aspect,” Boras told Sherman. “He had his surgery in April. There’s a chance depending on how he progresses that (hitting in the majors late in the season) is a possibility.”

Based on those comments, it seems the path back for Conforto would be as a hitter only. If he’s still unable to throw by September, clubs certainly aren’t going to plug him back into right field (and probably wouldn’t risk him at first base either). Yet there’s apparently at least some chance he makes a late-season return as a designated hitter and/or bench bat, which hadn’t previously appeared possible.

Even if Conforto’s shoulder progresses well enough he could make it back to the diamond, he’d of course need to find a contract offer to his liking. Teams aren’t going to commit the kind of multi-year deal he’d been looking for entering the offseason, and Conforto and Boras may eventually decide it’s better for the 29-year-old to continue rehabbing on his own and look for a new team next year.

That said, clubs figure to keep an eye on Conforto’s progress over the next few months. While he posted only marginally above-average offensive numbers last season, he hit at a .261/.365/.478 level between 2018-20. Something approaching that production would be a boon to virtually every lineup, and a contending club looking for a bit more left-handed punch could have interest in a late-season pact if he’s healthy. That kind of arrangement, meanwhile, could allow Conforto to showcase his form for a few weeks (and into a possible postseason run) while still hitting the market next winter.

In any event, a resolution won’t be coming for several months. Conforto’s clearly not near an imminent return to game shape, and he’ll have to continue working on his own for at least the next two months. Any team would forfeit an amateur draft choice were they to sign Conforto now because he rejected the Mets’ QO. Certainly, no team is going to do that for a player with such an uncertain health status. Pick forfeiture will no longer apply once the draft concludes on July 19, however, so there’d be no penalty (aside from whatever guarantee he receives) for a team to add him after that point. The Mets won’t receive any compensation if he signs a post-draft deal.

Whether Conforto will sign anywhere this year won’t be known until at least after the All-Star Break, and quite likely for a while longer. That it’s even possible after news of his shoulder surgery makes for a surprising development, though, one that’ll be worth monitoring later in the season.

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