Michael Conforto underwent surgery on his right shoulder earlier this week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Conforto will be sidelined for the entire 2022 season but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Agent Scott Boras revealed his client’s shoulder problems in late March, saying that Conforto suffered a strain while training in January, but he had since resumed hitting. Just yesterday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reported that Conforto still hasn’t been able to throw, and was initially presented with the option of surgery earlier this offseason, but was choosing to hold off on going under the knife. In a follow-up tweet from Heyman, Conforto was deciding between either getting the “cleanup” procedure done now, or waiting until after the season.
Undergoing the surgery now makes sense given Conforto’s still-unsigned status. If he did land a one-year deal with a team for a prorated salary, it is quite possible the shoulder issues would prevent from Conforto from performing at an acceptable level. Coming off a middling 2021 season, a down 2022 season, and then a shoulder surgery in the offseason would essentially crater Conforto’s market in the 2022-23 free agent sweepstakes, whereas now, he can get the surgery and then head into next winter with a slightly cleaner slate.
Sitting out 2022 also removes the qualifying offer as a factor in Conforto’s market. He turned down the Mets’ one-year, $18.4MM QO last fall, and thus any team signing Conforto would have to had to give up at least one draft pick as compensation. Since Conforto now won’t be signing until after the 2022 draft anyway, the attached compensation no longer applies, and players are only eligible to be tagged with the QO once in their careers. (Though the qualifying offer system might be abandoned anyway, pending on international draft negotiations between the league and the MLBPA later this summer.)
Passing on the QO now seems like an error in hindsight for Conforto, and the decision even carried its share of controversy prior to his injury. Conforto hit an unspectacular .232/.344/.384 with 14 home runs over 479 PA with New York last season, leading to speculation that he would either take the qualifying offer, or sign a one-year pillow contract of a similar value. (This was MLBTR’s theory, predicting a one-year, $20MM pact for Conforto on the open market.) With a one-season payday secured, Conforto would then look to bounce back and deliver a season similar to his 2015-20 prime years, thus setting him up for a bigger multi-year contract next winter.
The Marlins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Padres all had some level of interest in Conforto this past winter, and up to a dozen teams at least checked in on his services closer to the start of the free agent period. Again, it is easy to say in hindsight that Conforto “should have” signed somewhere earlier in the offseason, though we don’t know what types of actual offers (if any) were on the table prior to the lockout.
Given Conforto’s production prior to 2021, it seems likely that he should be able to land a one-year, guaranteed big league deal in the offseason if he recovers well from his surgery, even if that salary is well south of $18.4MM. Whether he’ll finally land that big multi-year pact remains to be seen, as Conforto will need to post some big numbers to settle any lingering doubts about his health, or his age (he’ll be 31 on Opening Day 2024). In more immediate business, however, Conforto will simply have to focus on rehabbing his shoulder and getting himself fully back up to par.