Mariners, Astros Among Teams With Interest In Michael Conforto
Michael Conforto has drawn the attention of a number of teams in the outfield market, and a pair of AL West contenders are apparently in the mix. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets the Mariners are showing interest in the former All-Star, while Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes the Astros also have Conforto on their radar. Both New York teams and the Cubs have previously been tied to the Boras Corporation client.
There’s little surprise with either development. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times wrote last week that Seattle was open to adding another outfielder, and they’ve since been tied to Andrew Benintendi and Brandon Nimmo. A Washington native, Conforto has ties to the Pacific Northwest that could be an ancillary bonus for Seattle. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week the Astros were looking to bring in a lefty-swinging outfielder, making Conforto a sensible target. Houston was linked to him this past summer, but no deal materialized at the time.
Conforto’s a buy-low target for outfield-needy clubs. He posted an excellent .265/.369/.495 line in just shy of 2000 plate appearances for the Mets from 2017-20. After a .232/.344/.384 showing during his platform campaign in 2021, Conforto lingered on the open market upon turning down a qualifying offer from New York. He reportedly suffered a right shoulder injury during the lockout, and he underwent surgery in April. Conforto was able to begin swinging a few months later, but the rehab process prevented him from throwing during the season. While there was some chatter he could sign with a team late in the 2022 season to serve as a designated hitter or bench bat, that didn’t come to pass.
On the heels of that lost season, Scott Boras has suggested Conforto is looking for a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out after the first season. If that doesn’t prove attainable, it stands to reason he could pivot to a straight one-year deal to get back to free agency at the end of next year. There’s no longer any draft compensation attached to Conforto, so teams figure to be more willing to take a shot on him returning to form than they were this past spring after the shoulder injury.
It seems the 29-year-old (30 next March) continues to progress well from the surgery. Conforto has long since been cleared to begin hitting, and Morosi tweeted this afternoon he’s also begun a throwing program. There doesn’t figure to be much issue building his arm back into game shape by the time Spring Training rolls around, positioning him back in the corner outfield mix for clubs.
The Mariners have two outfield spots accounted for in Julio Rodríguez and Teoscar Hernández, but they’re open to upgrades over the contingent of Jesse Winker, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic and Sam Haggerty in left field and at designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker locked into right field, while Chas McCormick has the inside track on the center field job. Yordan Alvarez is slated to split time between left field and designated hitter, but Houston’s scoring the market for another lefty bat to serve the role Michael Brantley filled the past few seasons.
Brantley is coming off shoulder surgery of his own — his procedure coming in August. McTaggart suggests the club isn’t closing the door on retaining Brantley for a fifth season, but there’s a bit more uncertainty on the five-time All-Star’s status since he underwent his surgery more recently than Conforto has.
Cubs Interested In Michael Conforto, Cody Bellinger
Outfielders Michael Conforto and Cody Bellinger are both risky bets with huge payoff potential and it seems the Cubs are interested in putting some money down there. Jon Heyman of The New York Post connects the Cubs to both of them and also adds the Astros to the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors.
Conforto, 30 in March, is a real wild card since he had an excellent run of play from 2017 to 2020 but has had a frustrating time since then. He hit 97 home runs during that strong period, producing an overall batting line of .265/.369/.496. That production was 33% better than the league average hitter, as evidenced by his 133 wRC+.
He slumped in 2021 by hitting just 14 homers and slashing .232/.344/.384. His 106 wRC+ shows that he was still a bit above average, but it was a noticeable drop from his previous output. He received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, still believing he could find a bigger payday despite the down season. Unfortunately, he injured his shoulder during the lockout, requiring surgery that wiped out his 2022 entirely.
After one down year and a lost campaign, it’s difficult to know what to expect from Conforto going forward. That uncertainty will put a damper on his market but he’ll surely find teams interested in taking a shot, hoping he can return to the kind of hitter he was a few years ago. He’s already been connected to the Yankees and Mets this offseason and has connected to the Blue Jays prior to that.
Bellinger, 27, is a somewhat similar case, as he also had a strong four-year run from 2017 to 2020, including an MVP season in 2019. Over that stretch, Bellinger hit 123 home runs and slashed .273/.364/.547 for a wRC+ of 137. However, he injured his shoulder during the 2020 postseason on an ill-advised celebration and hasn’t been himself since. He hit a dismal .165/.240/.302 in 2021 and rebounded slightly to .210/.265/.389 in 2022, but that latter line was still well below average.
Bellinger comes with a higher floor than Conforto as his speed and defense can make him valuable even if his bat doesn’t rebound. FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement this year, even with the tepid offensive production. Conforto, however, doesn’t rate out as well in those departments and really needs to produce at the plate in order to be useful.
For the Cubs, it’s not shocking to see that they are considering adding an outfielder with their lack of clarity on the grass. Seiya Suzuki is the only long-term piece in place right now, as he has four years remaining on his contract and should have right field locked down. In left field, Ian Happ should be the everyday option but he is just one year away from reaching free agency. In center field, the Cubs used a handful of different options in 2022 with no one securing the job. They also don’t have an obvious designated hitter at the moment, making it easy to slot another potent bat into their lineup.
After rebuilding in recent years, the Cubs have been rumored to be considering more aggressive spending in order to help push back to contention. They delivered on that last year to a degree, giving multi-year deals to Suzuki and Marcus Stroman, in addition to a batch of one-year contracts. Neither Bellinger nor Conforto will require top-of-the-market deals, given their recent struggles. Bellinger is reportedly looking for a one-year deal in order to hopefully return to free agency with a stronger platform season. Conforto is apparently looking for a deal somewhat similar to what Carlos Rodón got from the Giants, a two-year guarantee that allows him to opt out if he has a strong showing in year one.
The Cubs should have lots of payroll room to work with, as they are currently pegged at about $127MM, per Roster Resource. That’s well shy of 2022’s $143MM Opening Day figure and their franchise high of $203MM from 2019, with figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve been rumored to be in the market for the top free agent shortstops, but it’s possible that they end up losing out to clubs that are more firmly in win-now mode. Whether they succeed in that area or not, turning a 74-win team into a contender in one offseason is a challenge. Taking short-term fliers on bounceback candidates like Conforto and Bellinger makes plenty of sense, as they have the potential to both bolster the club’s chances in 2023 while also potentially becoming trade candidates at next year’s deadline if they fall back in the standings again.
As for the Astros, it was recently reported that they are targeting left-handed hitting outfielders. This is in part due to the fact that Michael Brantley is now a free agent, leaving them with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as the only left-handers locked into the lineup. Bellinger would help balance the lineup but, as mentioned, there’s uncertainty in what kind of production he’s likely to provide. The Astros have avoided lengthy commitments in recent years, as the last free agent they signed to a deal longer than two years was Josh Reddick back in 2016.
Bellinger’s desire for a one-year deal certainly fits their M.O., and his defensive prowess would afford the club opportunities. Alvarez got into 56 games in left field this year, a personal high for him. It’s possible he continues pushing that number but he’s still likely to spend at least some time as the designated hitter. Chas McCormick is a strong defender in center field but he hits from the right side, meaning he and Bellinger could potentially be deployed in a platoon. McCormick hit .340/.409/.563 against lefties last year has a career 125 wRC+ versus righties but just a 99 against southpaws. On days when Alvarez is the DH, McCormick and Bellinger taking the field next to Tucker could give the club a very strong defensive trio.
Houston’s payroll is actually not far off from last year’s, as Roster Resource currently has them around $164MM. That’s just $11MM shy of last year’s $175MM Opening Day figure, per Cot’s. Even a modest deal that Bellinger will likely require would get them closer to or over last year’s number, but it wouldn’t be surprising if they push their spending up on the heels of a World Series victory.
Heyman says that there are 11 teams in the Bellinger sweepstakes, which also includes known suitors in the Yankees, Giants, Rockies and Blue Jays.
Latest On Yankees’ Free Agent Targets
The Yankees are certainly hoping they’ll be able to re-sign Aaron Judge, but until the AL MVP makes his decision, the Yankees are considering several other free agents and trade targets. In addition to some names already linked to New York in past reports, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Yankees have checked in on the likes of Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Cody Bellinger, Michael Conforto, and their own incumbent free agents Jameson Taillon and Andrew Benintendi.
In general, it’s pretty commonplace for the Yankees (or pretty much any team, particularly the biggest spenders) to at least get in contact with agents early in the offseason in order to gauge interest, or get a sense of asking prices for any particular player. As such, some of these players might not necessarily be at the top of the Yankees’ target list, and Heyman notes that some could be options only if Judge signs elsewhere. For instance, though “the Yankees seek multiple outfielders,” Heyman doesn’t think the Bronx Bombers would both re-sign Judge and also add Nimmo on a pricey contract. Likewise, the Yankees aren’t expected to bid at the top of the shortstop market, unless a Judge departure gives them new reason to explore Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and company.
Since Anthony Rizzo has already been re-signed to solidify the first base position, New York’s offseason plan on the position player side looks pretty set — retain Judge, then add a less-expensive second outfielder (Conforto or Bellinger are both likely candidates for one-year contracts). Should an opportunity arise to move an infielder like Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, or perhaps even Gleyber Torres, the Yankees could pounce, but the presence of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, and yet-to-debut star rookie Anthony Volpe gives the Bombers some flexibility in figuring out the infield mix. DJ LeMahieu‘s toe injuries will also factor into the front office’s next decisions.
If Judge did leave the Bronx, of course, any number of new backup plans could be put into place. However, a Judge departure may only throw the position-player scenarios into flux, since Heyman writes that “the pitching pursuits are said to be ‘on different tracks‘ ” than the Yankees’ interest in position players. Though naturally adding any high-profile player has an overall impact on a roster in terms of salary or luxury-tax figures, it makes sense that adding a new pitcher isn’t necessarily tied to Judge’s situation, since Judge’s return has a bigger chain reaction on the lineup as a whole.
Putting a new starter into the rotation is a cleaner fit, especially if that new addition is an ace like Verlander or Rodon. While the Cy Young Award winner has been a Yankees target in the past, Heyman reports that “the Yankees’ confidence level on [signing] Verlander is low,” so he might also be something of a Plan B option for the club.
The Yankees also might not necessarily be seeking an ace, since Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes are already in the fold. Since Luis Severino, Frankie Montas, and Domingo German have their share of question marks, adding a reliable third-starter type like Taillon would help solidify the starting five. Kodai Senga (another pitcher garnering interest from the Bronx) is perhaps something of a wild card, given how it isn’t known how well he can make the transition from NPB to the major leagues. Senga’s stuff could make him a front-of-the-rotation arm might off the bat, or he might end up being more suited to the middle or back of a pitching staff.
Mets Have Interest In Andrew Heaney, Michael Conforto
Free agency is officially underway, and with the Mets staring down multiple holes in the rotation, bullpen and lineup, they’ll be among the sport’s more active teams again this winter. A pair of early targets for the team include left-hander Andrew Heaney, per Newsday’s Tim Healey, and old friend Michael Conforto, per Will Sammon of The Athletic.
The interest in Heaney is sensible on many levels. First and foremost, the Mets currently face the possibility of losing Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker to free agency. Heaney certainly isn’t going to offset a potential deGrom loss, but the Mets figure to cast a wide net in sifting through starting pitching options, as it’s unlikely that they’ll come to a middle ground and re-sign all three of their rotation free agents. Secondly, GM Billy Eppler knows Heaney quite well, having spent the 2015-20 seasons as the Angels’ general manager; Heaney, while originally acquired when Jerry Dipoto was the Halos’ GM, was with the Angels for all six of those seasons.
Beyond the sheer need in the rotation and the familiarity with the pitcher and person in Heaney, his 2022 breakout with the Dodgers was nothing short of remarkable. A pair of shoulder troubles limited him to 72 2/3 innings, and that’s a concern for any pitcher but especially one with Heaney’s lengthy injury history. However, when he was able to take the mound, the 31-year-old southpaw worked to a tidy 3.10 ERA with the second-best strikeout rate (35.5%) and best swinging-strike rate (16.8%) of the 188 pitchers who tossed at least 70 frames in 2022.
Heaney’s emergence came on the heels of the Dodgers scrapping nearly his entire arsenal. Heaney continued throwing a four-seamer he debuted in 2021 — he’d previously used a sinker as his primary heater — but dumped his changeup and curveball in favor of a new slider that proved to be an absolute knockout offering. Heaney was almost all four-seamers and sliders in 2022, with the lone exception being a 5% usage rate on the aforementioned changeup (which he once threw at a 23% clip).
As for Conforto, a reunion makes some sense — though only if the Mets lose Brandon Nimmo to another club (or feel that his early asking price is simply beyond the pale). The longtime Mets slugger had a down season (by his standards) in 2021, though he still checked in as a slightly above-average offensive contributor. Unfazed by the dip in production, Conforto rejected a qualifying offer in search of a multi-year deal but found a frosty market before suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery and ultimately kept him out of action for the entire 2022 season.
Ostensibly, that would set the table for a one-year, make-good deal wherever he signs, but agent Scott Boras has already suggested that Conforto is likely to target a two-year deal with an opt-out — similar to the structure that Carlos Rodon had with the Giants in 2022 (presumably at a decidedly lower total than Rodon’s $44MM). Whether such an offer materializes can’t be known so early in a months-long free agent period.
Signing Conforto would likely mean sliding Starling Marte over to center and bidding farewell to Nimmo, or perhaps committing to Conforto in more of a DH role. The latter scenario might not appeal to a 29-year-old who’s looking to reestablish himself as a credible all-around player, however, and it seems unlikely the Mets would jump the market to sign any outfielder who’d push Marte to center before having a full grasp on Nimmo’s situation.
Payroll shouldn’t be much of an issue for a Mets club that topped $280MM in 2022 and approached $300MM in luxury-tax obligations. Still, it’s worth noting that entering the market, the team projects to a payroll of about $238MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, with a bit less than $249MM on the luxury ledger. Finding a taker for Dominic Smith or Darin Ruf (or simply non-tendering the former) could slightly drop those figures, but the Mets are already deep into luxury territory and figure to have little qualms about surpassing the newly implemented fourth tier of penalization for a second straight year.
Boras On Michael Conforto’s Free Agency
Michael Conforto didn’t play a single inning or even sign with a team following last year’s qualifying offer and eventual shoulder surgery due to an offseason injury. However, agent Scott Boras tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that he nevertheless feels the market can bring about a multi-year deal for his client. Boras suggests Conforto could seek a contract at least loosely modeled after the two-year deal he negotiated for Carlos Rodon with the Giants, which allowed Rodon to opt out after year one. Unsurprisingly, Boras characterizes the interest in Conforto as “so broad,” adding that he’s throwing from 120 feet and is able to generate full extension in his swing.
While Boras and Conforto could seek a contract structured similarly to that of Rodon, there are a few caveats worth emphasizing. First and foremost, Conforto can’t reasonably hope to match the $22MM annual value on Rodon’s contract and would surely be in line for a lower rate of base pay. Secondly, it should be noted that the second-year player option on Rodon’s contract was conditional; he needed to first reach 110 innings pitched before gaining the right to opt out of the deal. Any team taking the risk of signing Conforto for multiple years might prefer that he fully “earn” the right to opt out rather than make it a flat guarantee. Such clauses are generally dependent on playing time, be it in the form of games played or total plate appearances.
The comments on Conforto come after rumors percolated throughout the season that the longtime Mets outfielder would sign on with a club as a DH down the stretch, after he was detached from draft pick compensation following July’s 2022 draft. Such a deal never materialized, though Sherman notes the Astros had interest in signing him.
Conforto’s continued free agency is sure to be one of the more interesting cases to follow this offseason. Between his lost season in 2022 and a down season in 2021 where he slashed just .232/.344/.384 with a barely above-average wRC+ of 106, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Conforto. However, that’s also the case with many of his free-agent peers on the corner outfield market. While Aaron Judge‘s likely record-setting free agency highlights the class, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Jurickson Profar, Joc Pederson, and Michael Brantley all join Conforto in free agency. Of the bunch, only Profar managed a full, healthy season.
Conforto’s significant upside as a 29-year-old (30 in March) who has flashed All-Star caliber production should still create intrigue among clubs. From 2017-20, Conforto slashed an impressive .265/.369/.495 and looked to be establishing himself as one of the league’s best right fielders. It’s easy to see why a team would want to take a chance on someone with his past success, but he has competition in even that regard. Joey Gallo represents an option with similar upside, less injury concerns, and the ability to play center field if needed, though his extreme, high-strikeout profile and ghastly 2023 results are serious concerns of their own that could make Conforto a more attractive option.
Fortunately for Conforto, just as there’s a large class of quality corner outfield free agents, there’s an equally large list of teams that will likely be looking for outfield help in 2023. Whether they re-sign Judge or not, the Yankees will likely look for an upgrade on Aaron Hicks in left field so they can keep Giancarlo Stanton entrenched at DH. The White Sox are in desperate need for outfield help, with only Luis Robert fully locked into everyday outfield opportunities as Eloy Jimenez looks likely to spend more time at DH next year and Andrew Vaughn could replace Jose Abreu at first base going forward. The Rangers will likely be interested in adding to an outfield that lacks certainty beyond Adolis Garcia and Leody Taveras, the Padres may look to replace the departing Profar externally, and the Blue Jays could certainly do with an upgrade to their current tandem of Raimel Tapia and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field. Even Conforto’s former team in Queens could be in search of outfield help this offseason, with center fielder Brandon Nimmo now a free agent and Starling Marte capable of sliding over to center without issue.
Michael Conforto Drawing Post-Draft Interest
On MLBTR’s list of top 50 free agents for this past offseason, 49 of them eventually reached deals, with outfielder Michael Conforto being the lone exception. It was later revealed that the reason he hadn’t signed was that he suffered a shoulder injury during the lockout, which would eventually require season-ending surgery.
Conforto’s agent, Scott Boras, later walked that “season-ending” descriptor back in May, saying that there was a chance that Conforto could return late in the season. While that opened up the possibility of some team signing an injured Conforto and hoping for him to recuperate ahead of schedule, it was never going to happen prior to the draft since Conforto turned down a qualifying offer from the Mets. Taking a risk on Conforto might have some appeal, but not so much that any team would forfeit a meaningful draft pick for the pleasure.
Now that the draft has been completed, that has become a moot point. Signing Conforto is no longer connected to any kind of forfeiture of draft picks or bonus pool money. Naturally, Conforto is now garnering more interest, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman speaks to Boras, who says that he got four phone calls about Conforto after the draft and that “there is very strong interest by some very good teams.”
When asked to list the teams that were interested, Boras said “They’re all in the United States except one,” hinting that the Blue Jays are one of the teams at the table. The involvement of the Jays isn’t terribly surprising, given that they had previous interest in the offseason as part of their desire to add left-handed hitting. Around the same time that the news of Conforto’s injury came out, the Jays acquired a different lefty bat in Raimel Tapia. Since Tapia has hit .275/.300/.388 this season for a wRC+ of 91, or 9% below league average, it stands to reason that Toronto still thinks they can upgrade in that department.
Of course, even if Conforto is able to return to health before season’s end, it’s fair to wonder which version he will be. After an amazing stretch of play from 2017-2020 wherein he hit .265/.369/.495 for a wRC+ of 133, he followed that up with a down year in 2021. His batting line last year was .232/.344/.384 for a wRC+ of 106, still above average but a far cry from his previous seasons. Given that disappointing season, followed by shoulder surgery, a lengthy layoff and then a rehab process of some kind, it’s hard to know how effective he can be in the coming months.
Of course, from Conforto’s perspective, he’d surely love the ability to get back on the field and show some signs of life before the offseason. As a free agent marketing himself to teams for the 2023 season, there would be a big difference between getting healthy in December and holding a showcase versus playing in real games, even if it’s only a handful.
Signing an injured player comes with risks but is not unprecedented. For instance, in August of last year, the Dodgers signed Cole Hamels for $1MM plus incentives as he was working his way back from various injuries. In that case, it didn’t work out, as Hamels was shut down for the season just two weeks later. With less than two weeks to go until the trade deadline, any team looking for an extra bat that comes up short could turn to Conforto as a risky fallback option.
Boras: Michael Conforto Not Ruling Out Late-Season Return
Michael Conforto was the most notable unsigned free agent of this past offseason. The outfielder rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets and didn’t find a deal to his liking before the league locked out the players in early December. The following month, he injured his right shoulder during training and remains unsigned.
Conforto underwent surgery last month, and reports at the time suggested the procedure would end his 2022 season before it began. That may not actually be the case, as his agent Scott Boras now tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post it’s not out of the question Conforto could make it back to the majors by September. “There is a possibility the swinging modality can be back to normal at a much earlier date than the throwing aspect,” Boras told Sherman. “He had his surgery in April. There’s a chance depending on how he progresses that (hitting in the majors late in the season) is a possibility.”
Based on those comments, it seems the path back for Conforto would be as a hitter only. If he’s still unable to throw by September, clubs certainly aren’t going to plug him back into right field (and probably wouldn’t risk him at first base either). Yet there’s apparently at least some chance he makes a late-season return as a designated hitter and/or bench bat, which hadn’t previously appeared possible.
Even if Conforto’s shoulder progresses well enough he could make it back to the diamond, he’d of course need to find a contract offer to his liking. Teams aren’t going to commit the kind of multi-year deal he’d been looking for entering the offseason, and Conforto and Boras may eventually decide it’s better for the 29-year-old to continue rehabbing on his own and look for a new team next year.
That said, clubs figure to keep an eye on Conforto’s progress over the next few months. While he posted only marginally above-average offensive numbers last season, he hit at a .261/.365/.478 level between 2018-20. Something approaching that production would be a boon to virtually every lineup, and a contending club looking for a bit more left-handed punch could have interest in a late-season pact if he’s healthy. That kind of arrangement, meanwhile, could allow Conforto to showcase his form for a few weeks (and into a possible postseason run) while still hitting the market next winter.
In any event, a resolution won’t be coming for several months. Conforto’s clearly not near an imminent return to game shape, and he’ll have to continue working on his own for at least the next two months. Any team would forfeit an amateur draft choice were they to sign Conforto now because he rejected the Mets’ QO. Certainly, no team is going to do that for a player with such an uncertain health status. Pick forfeiture will no longer apply once the draft concludes on July 19, however, so there’d be no penalty (aside from whatever guarantee he receives) for a team to add him after that point. The Mets won’t receive any compensation if he signs a post-draft deal.
Whether Conforto will sign anywhere this year won’t be known until at least after the All-Star Break, and quite likely for a while longer. That it’s even possible after news of his shoulder surgery makes for a surprising development, though, one that’ll be worth monitoring later in the season.
Michael Conforto Undergoes Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Michael Conforto underwent surgery on his right shoulder earlier this week, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Conforto will be sidelined for the entire 2022 season but is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Agent Scott Boras revealed his client’s shoulder problems in late March, saying that Conforto suffered a strain while training in January, but he had since resumed hitting. Just yesterday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reported that Conforto still hasn’t been able to throw, and was initially presented with the option of surgery earlier this offseason, but was choosing to hold off on going under the knife. In a follow-up tweet from Heyman, Conforto was deciding between either getting the “cleanup” procedure done now, or waiting until after the season.
Undergoing the surgery now makes sense given Conforto’s still-unsigned status. If he did land a one-year deal with a team for a prorated salary, it is quite possible the shoulder issues would prevent from Conforto from performing at an acceptable level. Coming off a middling 2021 season, a down 2022 season, and then a shoulder surgery in the offseason would essentially crater Conforto’s market in the 2022-23 free agent sweepstakes, whereas now, he can get the surgery and then head into next winter with a slightly cleaner slate.
Sitting out 2022 also removes the qualifying offer as a factor in Conforto’s market. He turned down the Mets’ one-year, $18.4MM QO last fall, and thus any team signing Conforto would have to had to give up at least one draft pick as compensation. Since Conforto now won’t be signing until after the 2022 draft anyway, the attached compensation no longer applies, and players are only eligible to be tagged with the QO once in their careers. (Though the qualifying offer system might be abandoned anyway, pending on international draft negotiations between the league and the MLBPA later this summer.)
Passing on the QO now seems like an error in hindsight for Conforto, and the decision even carried its share of controversy prior to his injury. Conforto hit an unspectacular .232/.344/.384 with 14 home runs over 479 PA with New York last season, leading to speculation that he would either take the qualifying offer, or sign a one-year pillow contract of a similar value. (This was MLBTR’s theory, predicting a one-year, $20MM pact for Conforto on the open market.) With a one-season payday secured, Conforto would then look to bounce back and deliver a season similar to his 2015-20 prime years, thus setting him up for a bigger multi-year contract next winter.
The Marlins, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Padres all had some level of interest in Conforto this past winter, and up to a dozen teams at least checked in on his services closer to the start of the free agent period. Again, it is easy to say in hindsight that Conforto “should have” signed somewhere earlier in the offseason, though we don’t know what types of actual offers (if any) were on the table prior to the lockout.
Given Conforto’s production prior to 2021, it seems likely that he should be able to land a one-year, guaranteed big league deal in the offseason if he recovers well from his surgery, even if that salary is well south of $18.4MM. Whether he’ll finally land that big multi-year pact remains to be seen, as Conforto will need to post some big numbers to settle any lingering doubts about his health, or his age (he’ll be 31 on Opening Day 2024). In more immediate business, however, Conforto will simply have to focus on rehabbing his shoulder and getting himself fully back up to par.
Latest On Michael Conforto
The 2022 MLB season is now more than two weeks old, yet there’s one significant free agent that’s still unsigned. Outfielder Michael Conforto was ranked 32nd on the MLBTR list of the top 50 free agents, the only one of that group still without a team.
The last report on Conforto, from about three weeks ago, was that his market had been slowed by an injury suffered during the lockout. Conforto’s agent Scott Boras explained the delay, telling reporters that the outfielder suffered a right shoulder strain while training in January.
At the time of that report in late March, Joel Sherman of the New York Post relayed that Conforto had been hitting for five weeks, meaning that he was taking hacks weeks before the lockout ended on March 10. That seemed to at least cast a bit of doubt on the report from Boras, though the health issue seems to be lingering, despite the fact that Conforto has been hitting for about two months now. Mike Puma of the New York Post relays that the shoulder injury was significant enough that surgery was considered, although Conforto opted to forgo that and try to let the shoulder heal. Although Puma doesn’t provide any specific diagnosis of the injury, he reports that Conforto has still not resumed throwing and even suggests it’s possible Conforto may not be able to return to the field at all this season.
If that ends up being the case, it would be another step in a string of bad luck for the outfielder, who already had the misfortune of having a down year just as he was about to qualify for free agency. From 2017 to 2020, he hit 97 home runs and slashed .265/.369/.495. In the estimation of FanGraphs, that production was about 33% better than league average (133 wRC+) and helped him produce 14.9 wins above replacement. However, his offense slipped in 2021 to .232/.344/.384, a wRC+ of 106, still above average but well below his previous level.
He was already going to be challenged to find a contract to his liking after that dip, and after declining an $18.4MM qualifying offer. MLBTR predicted that Conforto would settle for a one-year deal in the $20MM range and then return to the open market without the QO attached, hoping for better offers. This was a route previously taken by players like Yasmani Grandal and Marcell Ozuna, who each took one-year deals and eventually got four-year contracts worth over $60MM. How it will play out for Conforto now will be largely determined by the eventual timeline of his recuperation, which is currently quite murky.
If this injury is as serious as reported, Conforto might just linger on the market long enough to follow that Grandal/Ozuna plan, just without the one-year deal. If he’s able to heal his shoulder and get back into game shape over the next few months, this year’s draft is scheduled to take place July 17-19. Once the draft is completed, any team signing Conforto won’t have to worry about the draft pick forfeiture. Although his extended absence will likely dim the enthusiasm clubs will have for signing him, it’s also possible that a contender suffers an outfield injury of their own that spurs them towards taking a chance. For Conforto’s part, he will surely want to show his health, if he’s able to, in order to improve his earning power after the 2022 season. Even a contract with a modest financial outlay for the season’s final months could be enough to get him onto the field as an audition for his next job. The Marlins, Yankees, Padres, Rockies, Blue Jays and Rangers were known to be interested in him before this injury was revealed.
Michael Conforto Suffered Shoulder Injury In January
Michael Conforto is the last unsigned player who appeared among MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents at the start of the offseason. Easily the best player still available on the open market, Conforto has nevertheless remained without a team with just a week until Opening Day.
Agent Scott Boras offered an explanation for Conforto’s delay in signing this evening, telling Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic and Joel Sherman of the New York Post the outfielder suffered a right shoulder strain while training in January. Boras says Conforto is now healthy and is again hitting but that the issue slowed down both his offseason training routine and his hunt for a club. According to Rosenthal, negotiations with teams were on hold but resumed last week.
Conforto’s injury could partially clarify the hold-up in his finding a new club, although it doesn’t seem to completely explain the delay. After all, he suffered the strain in January, a time when MLB free agents were barred from communicating with teams anyhow. Sherman writes that Conforto has been hitting for five weeks, indicating he’d returned to batting practice well before the lockout was lifted on March 10. The delay in his resuming throwing ostensibly kept Boras from negotiating with teams in the immediate post-lockout signing spree, although that he’s been in contact with clubs for about a week suggests that only set back discussions around 10-14 days.
Unsurprisingly, Boras claimed that a now-healthy Conforto is drawing strong interest. However, he declined to project a timetable for the 29-year-old to sign. At the very least, that negotiations are ongoing would seem to reduce speculation among some fans that Conforto could wait until after the draft to put pen to paper. The left-handed hitter rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets at the start of the offseason, entitling New York to draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere and costing a signing club a draft choice.
Waiting to sign until after the draft would remove that compensation from the equation, and a few qualified free agents like Stephen Drew and Dallas Keuchel have taken that approach in past offseasons. However, this year’s draft is scheduled to take place from July 17-19, later than the early-June drafts of the Drew/Keuchel era. That’d require Conforto sitting out more than half the season, a course of action which never seemed likely.
Conforto is coming off a down season from a results perspective, but his strikeout and walk rates were customarily strong. The left-handed hitter also posted better batted ball marks than his 14 homers and .153 ISO (slugging minus batting average) would indicate. He looks like a strong bounceback candidate, one who could upgrade most lineups around the league.
Nevertheless, it’s tough to pin down top suitors for Conforto, even at this stage of the offseason. The Marlins, Yankees, Padres and Rockies were linked to him before the lockout. Miami and Colorado have since gone in different directions to upgrade their outfields, while San Diego is reportedly reluctant to take on another big move that could push them above the luxury tax threshold. New York hasn’t addressed the outfield, but they’ve since added Anthony Rizzo and Josh Donaldson to the payroll.
The Blue Jays more recently checked in as part of their search for a lefty-hitting outfielder, but they acquired Raimel Tapia from Colorado last week. No other team has been definitively tied to Conforto throughout the winter, but Jon Heyman of the MLB Network suggested on his Big Time Baseball podcast last week the Rangers could jump into the mix.