Michael Conforto Turned Down Nine-Figure Extension Prior To 2021 Season
Outfielder Michael Conforto turned down an extension offer from the Mets one year ago, reports Andy Martino of SNY. Per Martino’s tweet, the contract offer was “in the $100 million range” and “would have gone to about $120MM.”
Conforto’s market this winter has been one of the more difficult to predict, given that he followed up a run of four consecutive seasons of excellent production with a bit of a down year right before free agency. One year ago, at the time of this reported offer, Conforto had just finished a 2017-2020 run wherein he launched 97 home runs and hit .265/.369/.495, wRC+ of 133.
Other than the vague approximation of the final value of the offer, there’s nothing publicly known about it, making it difficult to evaluate Conforto’s decision. For instance, that number could have been spread over enough years to make the average annual value a non-starter. But just looking at the final number, it wasn’t outlandish for Conforto to reject that contract at that time. Just as a comparison, Nick Castellanos hit 98 homers over his past four years and put up a wRC+ of 126. He just signed with the Phillies for $100MM over five years. Conforto is a year younger than Castellanos, hits from the left side and doesn’t have the same defensive liabilities. If he had yet another great year at the plate in 2021, he certainly could have topped that $100MM number.
Unfortunately, Conforto had an ill-timed swoon last year, just as he was headed into free agency. Despite lowering his strikeout rate, he only managed 14 homers in 125 games and slashed .232/.344/.384 overall, for a wRC+ of just 106. Based on that performance, MLBTR predicted that Conforto would reject the qualifying offer, not find deals to his liking and eventually settle for a one-year, $20MM deal, hoping for a bounceback campaign and a return to the free agent market without the QO and with a better platform. So far, it’s seems possible things are following that script, as Conforto did indeed reject the QO is now just one of three free agents from that Top 50 list that remain unsigned or retired. (Trevor Story and Jorge Soler are the others.)
It is perhaps worth mentioned that Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation. Superstar agent Scott Boras has often found creative ways to get his clients paid in a way that also ensures them future opportunities for further contracts. For instance, the aforementioned Castellanos signed a four-year deal with the Reds prior to the 2020 season, which came with opt-outs after each of the first two years of the deal. After a down year in 2020, he stayed put in Cincy and mashed through 2021, triggering his second opt-out and securing his $100MM deal this week. Carlos Rodon was also a candidate to settle for a one-year deal due to his excellent but injury-hampered season, but he ended up securing a two-year, $44MM deal that allows him to opt-out after the first year as long as he throws 110 innings. Carlos Correa went into the offseason looking for $330MM or more but couldn’t find a deal in that range. After switching his representation to Boras during the lockout, he just settled with the Twins for $105.3MM over three years, but with opt-outs after each season, allowing him to re-enter the market essentially at his will and take another shot at a mega payday.
Although it might initially seem like it was a mistake for Conforto to have turned down that $100MM, there’s still a chance he could come out ahead in the end. It’s entirely possible that he and Boras could find a similar deal to those examples, one that finds some middle ground between current financial security and future earning potential. He only turned 29 years of age a few weeks ago, meaning that it’s possible for Conforto to bank some money now and return to the open market going into his age-30 or age-31 season. All he has to do is put 2021 behind him and return to the form he showed in the previous four seasons.
Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market
4:10PM: Conforto is “not a top priority” for the Rockies, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports, though the club has some level of interest.
1:52PM: Michael Conforto‘s market continues to grow, as the Diamondbacks “were among the teams showing the most interest in Conforto before the lockout,” The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes. The Marlins had also been previously linked to Conforto, and Joe Frisaro of Man On Second tweets that Conforto remains on Miami’s list of outfield targets.
Such clubs as the Padres, Rockies, and Yankees have also been reported as suitors for Conforto’s services, with his market thus far representing an interesting cross-section of contenders and teams who struggled in 2021. The D’Backs are coming off a 110-loss season, while the Marlins followed up an appearance in the expanded 2020 playoff bracket with a 95-loss campaign last year.
This wide range of interested clubs could reflect Conforto’s status coming off a subpar (by his standards) .232/.344/.384 season over 479 plate appearances with the Mets. While Conforto rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, speculation persists that Conforto might look for a shorter-term contract that would allow him to re-test free agency next winter. Since Conforto surely feels he’ll hit better in 2022, he naturally wouldn’t want to short-change himself by signing a longer-term contract now that is reflective of his 2021 numbers.
Even if Conforto is “looking for big free agent pay day,” as Frisaro puts it, he could still land a healthy salary on a one-year deal, which opens the door for many teams as possible fits. Clubs that may be wary of a longer-term commitment to Conforto (or not keen on longer-term commitments in general) could certainly be more open to a one-year arrangement, since a Conforto that returns to his 2015-20 form is a major addition to any lineup.
Though Arizona would seemingly be closer to a rebuild than a true push for contention next season, the D’Backs haven’t been willing to entirely blow things up, as the team still has some interesting core pieces as well as some younger players hoped to be on the verge of a breakout. To this end, the Snakes signed Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the lockout, and president/CEO Derrick Hall said yesterday that the Diamondbacks were looking to add some offense.
Hall said he “could easily” see a scenario where Arizona spends $17MM to push the projected 2022 payroll up to the $110MM range. Since Conforto would certainly want to at least top the cost of the qualifying offer ($18.4MM) on any one-year deal, he’d cost more than $17MM, thus putting him at the high end of the Diamondbacks’ possible spending range. Plus, if that hypothetical $17MM represents all the front office would have to spend on remaining needs, it is quite possible the D’Backs would prefer to spread that money around to several players rather than splurge on Conforto alone.
Conforto’s rejection of the QO could represent an obstacle for both the Diamondbacks and the Marlins, as either team would have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder. Surrendering such a notable pick for what might be a short-term deal is a hefty price to pay for an Arizona team that isn’t really in position to contend in 2022.
Likewise, the Marlins had also been wary about QO free agents when making their winter moves, but Miami has been more clear about its intent to challenge for a postseason berth next season. The Marlins have already signed Avisail Garcia and traded for both Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, and the Fish have also been reportedly chasing such big-ticket trade candidates as the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds.
Just how much more the Marlins are willing to spend on upgrades, however, is still an unknown. Derek Jeter‘s surprising departure as the team’s CEO was (according to some accounts) due to a change in ownership’s approach to spending heading into the 2022 campaign. Prior to the lockout, the Jeter-led Marlins were in talks with Nick Castellanos on a contract of longer than five years, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though only time will tell if such major expenditures are still on the Marlins’ radar now that the lockout is over.
Naturally, the Marlins can still improve their team without spending a ton of money — the Stallings and Wendle trades are evidence of that, and Miami has a lot of young pitching depth that could bring back a cost-controlled talent like Reynolds in a further swap. Conforto might also represent an interesting middle ground for the team, if he was indeed open to only a one-year contract. Miami could take the one-year payroll boost to add Conforto, look to benefit from a possible rebound year from the former All-Star, and then watch him depart in free agency next winter.
Padres Showed Interest In Michael Conforto Pre-Lockout
The Padres expressed interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto prior to the MLB lockout, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres join a growing list of known teams to have reached out to the longtime Met’s camp, including the Yankees, who were reported to have interest earlier today.
Conforto is the latest player in a long line of free agent left field fielders the Padres have looked into. Reports from earlier in the offseason have connected San Diego to a number of offensively-gifted outfielders to bolster their lineup, including Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, and Seiya Suzuki. The interest in Conforto and other top outfielders stems from the departure of incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham, himself a candidate to be re-signed by the club via free agency.
Replacing Pham with Conforto may not deliver the jolt to a disappointing San Diego offense that fans expect, however. In 2021 Conforto slashed an uncharacteristically middling .232/.344/.384 with a 101 OPS+, not far off from a post-injury Pham’s .229/.340/.383 and 103 OPS+ output. Considering both players dealt with injuries and seemingly underperformed their batted ball metrics, it’s possible the Padres may simply find more bounce-back appeal (and, potentially, contract value) in the 29-year-old over the more senior Pham, who just turned 34-years-old.
Whether the Padres and their growingly-thin farm system should take a risk on Conforto is up for debate, as the Boras client rejected a qualifying offer en route to free agency and will cost his new team a draft pick and international bonus pool money. Still, the upside Conforto— a career .255/.356/.468 (124 OPS+) hitter— possesses is undeniable, and a likely upgrade over any current in-house options.
With plenty of offseason (remarkably) left to go in March, San Diego’s projected lineup still has room to change. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that RosterResource currently has non-roster invitee Nomar Mazara penciled into left field, a risky proposition for a team looking to take on their two 100+ win division rivals.
Acee notes that the Friars have roughly $15MM left to spend before hitting the new luxury tax threshold, and potentially more given the team’s willingness to surpass that threshold last season. Even if the club is hesitant to pass the threshold in consecutive seasons it’s still possible a long-term deal can be worked out with Conforto, owing to the likely departure of the well-compensated Wil Myers after the 2022 season. Efforts to move Eric Hosmer‘s remaining salary persist as well, which would only further serve president of baseball operations AJ Preller’s penchant for big moves.
With this in mind, team officials have told Acee that the club “is in position to spend for an offensive upgrade”. Whether Conforto is atop Preller’s shopping list remains to be seen, but it’s clear based on this report that the Padres will be a team to watch in the coming days.
Yankees Had Pre-Lockout Interest In Michael Conforto
Prior to the lockout, the Yankees had interest in outfielder Michael Conforto, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma (Twitter link). The Bronx Bombers join the Rockies and Marlins as the only teams publicly linked to Conforto’s market, though over a dozen teams reportedly checked in on the former All-Star around the start of the free agent period.
The possibility of Conforto jumping from the Mets to the Yankees creates some natural Big Apple intrigue, plus Conforto would seem like a good fit in the Yankees’ lineup. The Bombers are short on left-handed bats, and though Conforto slots in most naturally as the new everyday left fielder, he can also play right field (in the event of an injury or just a DH day for Aaron Judge) or even center field in a pinch, should Aaron Hicks run into more injury woes.
The short porch at Yankee Stadium has been a boon to many a left-handed hitter, and it could help Conforto bounce back from an ill-timed down year just as he was on the verge of free agency. Conforto hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers over 479 PA — still above average (101 OPS+, 106 wRC+) production, though well behind the numbers he posted from 2015-20.
Conforto may have been hampered by a hamstring strain that cost him five weeks on the injured list, and teams will surely also note that Conforto’s 2021 Statcast numbers were largely unchanged from his career norms, apart from a drop in barrels and barrel rate. Still, the Yankees or any other interested clubs surely have some concern over guaranteeing a big multi-year contract (and giving up a draft pick, since Conforto rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer) to player coming off a rather underwhelming season.
With that platform year in mind, there was speculation that Conforto could be open to a shorter-term contract with an opt-out clause, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal. Such an arrangement would allow Conforto to quickly re-enter free agency next winter on what he certainly hopes will be on the heels of a stronger 2022 season, not to mention a normal offseason that won’t be interrupted by a lockout. Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is no stranger to unique contracts (such as the swell-opt) that allow his clients both some flexibility and the possibility of locking in more longer-term money.
The Yankees have done plenty of business with Boras in the past, and in fact another Boras client in Gerrit Cole represents the last QO-rejecting free agent the Yankees signed without regard to the draft pick compensation. Naturally, there is a vast difference between Cole and Conforto’s situations, and thus the Yankees likely have some wariness about surrendering their second-highest 2022 draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money in exchange for signing Conforto.
That said, if Conforto was open to a shorter-term deal, he could fit into the Yankees’ reported preference for such contracts. New York offered a one-year, $25MM pact to another QO free agent in Justin Verlander before Verlander re-signed with the Astros, and the Yankees’ reported post-lockout plan is to monitor the shortstop market to see if any major names (i.e. the still-unsigned Carlos Correa or Trevor Story) could be amendable to a shorter-term arrangement. It stands to reason that the Yankees could expand this strategy beyond just shortstops, and to any prominent free agents like Conforto who can address other areas of need on the Bombers’ roster, while still not tying the club to a lengthy commitment.
Rockies Interested In Michael Conforto
Free agent outfielder Michael Conforto “is on [the Rockies’] list of possible free agents,” The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders hears from sources inside the Rox organization. Conforto joins Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber as prominent outfield-capable names Colorado has been linked to since the start of the offseason, as the Rockies were known to be looking for some more pop in the lineup.
The 2015-20 version of Conforto would certainly fit that description, as the former All-Star hit .259/.358/.484 with 118 homers over that six-season run with the Mets. Last year, however, Conforto was far less effective at the plate, hitting a modest .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers over 479 PA while also missing about five weeks of action due to a strained hamstring.
Apart from a dropoff in barrels and barrel rate, there wasn’t much difference in Conforto’s 2021 season from his 2015-20 seasons, from a Statcast perspective. His .322 wOBA was much lower than his above-average .350 xwOBA, so Conforto might have simply had a hard-luck season at the worst possible time as he was about to enter the free agent market.
A move to a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Coors Field might spark a revival in Conforto’s numbers, though it remains to be seen exactly what his down year will cost him on the open market. Saunders suggests that the Rockies would be open to inking Conforto to three or four years, yet it isn’t clear whether or not Conforto would necessarily want that type of longer commitment (at what would surely be less than top dollar) if he views 2021 as an aberration. MLBTR projected that Conforto would take just a one-year pillow contract in order to re-establish himself and then test free agency again next winter, and Saunders writes that some executives around baseball feel the outfielder might indeed take this path.
The other wrinkle involved in this scenario is the draft pick compensation attached to Conforto, since he rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer. If Conforto is only looking for a one-year deal, some teams may not be willing to give up a pick just for one season of his services — especially since the 2022 season now may be shortened due to the lockout. While Conforto’s former teammate Noah Syndergaard landed a one-year deal from the Angels despite also rejecting a QO, it can argued that Syndergaard’s scenario was different in many respects.
Syndergaard is coming off essentially two lost seasons due to Tommy John surgery and wasn’t in great position for a longer-term deal, and an Angels team desperate for pitching felt giving up the pick was a risk worth taking if Syndergaard can help them finally end their playoff drought. While the Rockies seemingly always think they’re closer to contention than they actually are, the club still faces a lot of competition within the NL West alone, to say nothing of the rest of the National League (even if more postseason spots are available).
Signing Conforto to a one-year deal and surrendering a draft pick in order to make a push in 2022 alone doesn’t seem too realistic, though the Rox might also feel they have something of a bonus pick to work with since Trevor Story is also a QO free agent. Since the Rockies are a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, their compensatory pick for Story would fall just after the draft’s first round, assuming Story signed for more than $50MM. Signing a QO free agent would cost Colorado its third-highest pick of the draft, for comparison’s sake.
The Rockies have plenty of room for Conforto in their outfield, as he could slot into either corner spot and even play center field in a pinch (though not on a consistent basis). An already-inconsistent Colorado lineup will now be losing Story, and the outfield has been seen as a natural spot to add a big bat to the mix. Charlie Blackmon will continue to get some time in right field, but could also get some DH time to accommodate Conforto if he is moved between both corner spots.
Over a dozen teams had some initial interest in Conforto at the start of the offseason, though only the Marlins and now the Rockies are the only known teams linked to the 29-year-old. It isn’t clear whether or not Miami could still be in the running, as the Fish already signed Avisail Garcia, and recent reports (and the sudden departure of Derek Jeter from the organization) have hinted that the club might not be willing to spend much more in the wake of the lockout.
MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract
Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.
Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.
That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.
Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.
So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.
There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.
Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.
Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.
Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?
For How Many Years Will Michael Conforto Sign?
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One 33% (1,746)
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Three 32% (1,706)
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Two 22% (1,156)
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Four or more 14% (720)
Total votes: 5,328
In What Range Will Michael Conforto's Guarantee Fall?
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Between $18.4MM and $30MM 34% (1,667)
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Under $18.4MM 21% (1,032)
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Between $45MM and $60MM 17% (813)
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Between $30MM and $45MM 15% (714)
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Between $60MM and $75MM 8% (397)
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Over $75MM 5% (256)
Total votes: 4,879
Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents
Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order. For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.
Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings. First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.
For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks. The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.
- Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary. The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+. Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category. If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
- Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds. The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers. Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere. The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town. The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins). For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
- Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round. Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager‘s deal with the Rangers.
Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…
- Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021. As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
- Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021. For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection. For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft. Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
- Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents. Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
- Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.
Marlins Have Had Discussions With Michael Conforto
The Marlins have already made one big outfield acquisition this winter, signing Avisail Garcia to a four-year, $53MM deal before the lockout began, but recent rumors have indicated they are still looking to add another. One name on their list is Michael Conforto, as Joe Frisaro of Man on Second Baseball reports that “the Marlins have had discussions with Conforto’s camp, and he remains a possibility.” (Presumably, these discussions took place before the lockout, as teams and players are now not permitted to have such talks until the lockout ends.)
Conforto would make for an interesting fit in the Marlins outfield, given that he and Garcia were both primarily right fielders in 2021. However, it is worth noting that general manager Kim Ng recently said the team believes Garcia could be an everyday center fielder, if needed. Conforto also has some center field experience, but not since 2019. Even then, it was only 39 games. The club still lacks a proper everyday option in center and has been connected to both Ketel and Starling Marte this winter to try to address that need. It seems that installing Conforto in right field and sliding Garcia to center is another route they’ve considered.
Conforto is one of the more difficult markets to predict, due to the fact that he had a tremendous four-year run from 2017 to 2020 but is coming off an ill-timed downturn in 2021 as he entered free agency. During that stretch from 2017 to 2020, he hit 97 home runs and slashed .265/.369/.495, for a wRC+ of 133. But 2021 saw his numbers slip to .232/.344/.384 for a wRC+ of just 106. That’s still above league average, but a significant drop from his previous seasons.
After receiving a qualifying offer from the Mets, MLBTR predicted that Conforto would turn it down and then find his multi-year offers to be lacking, eventually settling for a one-year, $20MM deal to prove his 2021 slump was an outlier, then return to the open market without a qualifying offer attached. Although Conforto did end up turning down the QO, Frisaro spoke to Tim Healey of Newsday, who believes Conforto will beat that $20MM prediction and wind up somewhere in the range of $80MM to $100MM. (Same link as first paragraph.)
If that proves to be correct, the Marlins would have to blow past their recent track record for free agent expenditures in order to get a deal done. The $53MM given to Garcia was the largest contract given out by the club in the four-plus years since the team was purchased by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. Since then, they also gave Sandy Alcantara an extension worth $56MM. It would certainly come as a surprise if they then added another big contract to the books, especially one with a guarantee almost equal to those two combined. However, the organization has reportedly been planning to increase spending as they emerge from their rebuilding effort, meaning recent history perhaps can’t be used to eliminate the possibility of future spending.
Despite all the young talent they’ve collected on their roster during the rebuild, taking the next step towards competing won’t be easy, considering they share a division with the defending World Series champions in Atlanta, a strong Phillies team that likely still has moves to make, and a Mets team that has already spent at unprecedented levels to try and turn themselves into a true powerhouse. Perhaps the Marlins view a Conforto pursuit as the type of bold move they need to consider in order to gain ground on their rivals. For similar reasons, they’ve also been connected to other outfielders who remain available, such as Nick Castellanos, Eddie Rosario and Kyle Schwarber.
Early Qualifying Offer Decisions
Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.
We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.
Rejected QO
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers (link)
- Carlos Correa, Astros (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
- Eduardo Rodríguez, Red Sox (first reported by Jon Heyman of the MLB Network)
- Nick Castellanos, Reds (first reported by Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer)
- Michael Conforto, Mets (link)
- Corey Seager, Dodgers (first reported by Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times)
- Marcus Semien, Blue Jays (first reported by Shi Davidi and Hazel Mae of Sportsnet)
Decision Not Yet Reported
- Brandon Belt, Giants
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Raisel Iglesias, Angels
- Robbie Ray, Blue Jays
- Trevor Story, Rockies
- Noah Syndergaard, Mets
- Justin Verlander, Astros
Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.
Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.
Michael Conforto To Reject Qualifying Offer
Free agent outfielder Michael Conforto will reject the Mets’ $18.4MM qualifying offer and explore the free agent market, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Should he sign elsewhere, the Mets would be entitled to draft pick compensation.
Conforto is coming off a down platform year, leading some fans to suggest he could accept the QO in hopes of re-testing free agency next winter off a better showing. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported in mid-September that the Mets expected Conforto to reject the offer even in spite of his atypically poor numbers, though, so today’s development comes as little surprise.
Heading into the 2021 season, Conforto looked to be one of the top position players in this year’s class. From 2019-20, he’d hit .274/.376/.499, numbers that were 35 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+. That placed him in the top twenty qualified hitters, seemingly making Conforto a candidate to exceed nine figures with a typical platform year.
2021 was anything but typical, though, as Conforto slumped to a .232/.344/.384 line with just 14 home runs across 479 plate appearances. Those were his worst results since 2016, but they came with a career-low 21.7% strikeout rate and batted ball numbers not too dissimilar from his marks of years past. Entering his age-29 season, Conforto looks to be a prime bounceback target for suitors, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports his representatives at the Boras Corporation have already heard from upwards of twelve teams during the early stages of free agency. Depending on his priority, Conforto could still look to land a solid multi-year deal and lock in some long-term security or try to top the qualifying offer value on a one-year deal with designs on hitting the market again after 2022.
Teams who sign a qualified free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold. Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down which picks each team would forfeit in so doing. As a team who neither exceeded the luxury tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021, New York will receive a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B (typically around 70-75 overall) in next year’s amateur draft were Conforto to sign elsewhere.