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Mike Clevinger

Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger

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The market for free agent starters has been fairly busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board at the top of the market alongside a host of mid-level arms including Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the back end of the market has been fairly active, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn finding new homes on one-year deals earlier this winter. For all the buzz surrounding the free agent pitching market, however, one name stands out as having not come up in the rumor mill at all to this point in the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.

It’s something of a surprise that Clevinger’s market has involved such little fanfare, as the righty was one of the most dominant young arms in the league with Cleveland in the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated across 447 2/3 innings of work with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% better than league average by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 9.1% walk rate, good for a FIP of 3.32. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgery just four starts into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab wiped out his entire 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to post the worst season of his career. In 117 1/3 innings of work, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the first time he posted a ERA+ below the league average since becoming a full-time starter in 2017.

Clevinger’s peripherals also suffered considerably. Though the right-hander entered the 2022 campaign with a strong 27.3% career strikeout rate, he punched out just 18.8% of batters faced in his first year back from surgery. His batted ball metrics suffered as well: while he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip during his peak years in Cleveland, that figure fell to just 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The difficult season led Clevinger to sign a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox last offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by turning in a solid performance last year.

Clevinger’s time on the south side of Chicago got off to a rough start as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts, but the right-hander settled in from there to bring his ERA down to just 3.88 by the time a wrist injury sent him to the injured list in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to action six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and solid 3.88 FIP in his last eleven starts. Clevinger mostly cruised through the month of September until his final appearance of the year, where he was torched for six runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work to leave him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.

While Clevinger flashed his previous, dominant form at various points throughout the 2023 season and saw his average fastball velocity tick back up to 94.6, higher than his career average, it seems unlikely the veteran righty would be able to fully rediscover his previous form over a full season. After all, Clevinger’s groundball rate was at a career-worst 30.9% last season and while his strikeout rate did improve over 2022 it still sat at just 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at back in 2019 and pretty significantly below league average this past year.

Even so, the right-hander figures to be a quality, innings eating veteran who a club can comfortably place in the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. While Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball rates left something to be desired last year, he flashed strong command with a walk rate of just 7.3% while maintaining hard-hit and barrel rates significantly better than league average. Combined with his rediscovered velocity, it’s easy to see how the veteran right-hander could be an above average big league starter next season. If he can live up to that billing, the right-hander might prove to be a steal for the club that ultimately signs him this winter.

MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed 30th. That $13MM AAV would be something of a steal for a solid, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the pricey one-year deals arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by injury and under performance. Meanwhile, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass those marks on multi-year guarantees. While Giolito is three-and-a-half years younger than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger recent track record, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Clevinger posts comparable numbers to either pitcher in 2024 at a lower price point.

The veteran righty has been something of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any clubs directly connected to the right-hander. With that being said, plenty of teams are known to be in the market for starting pitching this winter including the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of those teams could benefit from adding Clevinger to their rotation mix, and he could prove to be an attractive backup option for teams that either can’t afford or fall short in the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who are unwilling to meet the asking prices for potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.

Mike Clevinger Declines Option With White Sox

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Mike Clevinger has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option on his deal with the White Sox, the team announced. He receives a $4MM buyout and qualifies for free agency. Chicago also confirmed their previously-reported decision to buy out righty Liam Hendriks.

Clevinger spent one season on Chicago’s south side. He inked a $12MM guarantee last winter, collecting an $8MM salary and the buyout. He worked to a 3.88 ERA over 12 starts before biceps inflammation sent him to the injured list on June 16. The injury cost him six weeks and, arguably more importantly, a chance to pitch his way into trade candidacy. Clevinger was only able to make one start between his reinstatement from the injured list and the deadline.

That left the Sox to retain him for the remainder of a noncompetitive season. Chicago attempted to offload Clevinger’s salary by placing him on waivers in August. He went unclaimed, presumably because no other team wanted to take on the option buyout. The right-hander had an excellent August before a middling September. He concluded the year with a 3.77 ERA across 131 1/3 innings. Clevinger struck out a slightly below-average 20% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate.

Turning 33 in December, he has a good chance to land a multi-year contract this offseason. While a two-year deal seems likely, it’s not out of the question he finds a three-year pact. That made it a fairly easy call for his camp to pass on the net $8MM deal with Chicago.

The White Sox will need to add multiple starting pitchers this winter. Dylan Cease may be the only pitcher certain to occupy a spot in the Opening Day five. Michael Kopech figures to battle for a job, while Garrett Crochet has angled for a rotation opportunity. Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint occupied back-end roles for the stretch run.

Mike Clevinger Clears Waivers

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Right-hander Mike Clevinger has cleared waivers, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He was available to any club willing to take on the remainder of his contract but they have all passed and he will stay with the White Sox.

Clevinger, 32, was one of several veteran players that was placed on waivers this week. With the trade deadline having gone by a month ago, non-contending clubs have little use for impending free agents but no way to exchange them for younger players. By placing them on waivers, they could have at least saved some money if another club put in a claim, as doing so requires taking on the remainder of the contract.

In the case of Clevinger, he could have been a sensible trade candidate at the deadline. The White Sox were well out of contention by that point and ended up trading away players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and others. However, he spent much of the summer on the injured list, first landing there in mid-May due to right wrist inflammation. He was activated in early June but returned to the IL a couple of weeks later due to right biceps inflammation, not being reinstated until July 29.

At the time of that second activation, he had only made 12 starts on the year with a 3.88 ERA but subpar strikeout and walk rates of 19.3% and 9.5% respectively. He didn’t get traded at that time but has improved his season since then. His last six starts have resulted in nine earned runs in 35 innings, which translates to a 2.31 ERA, with his strikeout rate ticking up to 23.7% in that time.

Though he may have increased his appeal relative to a month ago, the interest in a waiver claim was likely muted by his contract. He signed with the White Sox on a one-year, $12MM deal in the offseason, but it was in the form of an $8MM salary and $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for 2024. Though there’s only about $1.38MM left on that salary, any claiming team would also be responsible for that buyout, therefore taking on $5.38MM just to have Clevinger for a month. Prior to the trade deadline, the Sox could have offered to eat some of that cash as part of a deal but didn’t have that option in the waiver process. Though there are plenty of clubs that could have used another starter for the stretch run, it seems none of them were willing to pay that kind of price to do so.

Although Clevinger was placed on waivers, he was not designated for assignment or released, having stayed on the Chicago roster while the waiver process played out. Now that he has cleared, they can outright him to the minors or release him, though he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary. It seems as though he will simply play out the remainder of the season with the Sox as they play out the string on a disappointing season.

The Best Fits For Lucas Giolito

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Yesterday’s biggest development was the number of players reportedly on the waiver wire. The Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Mets and Tigers each put impending free agents on irrevocable waivers.

Those clubs are out of contention. The hope is that another team with a path to the playoffs will take what remains of this year’s contract off their hands. It’s particularly meaningful in the Angels’ case, as shedding enough veterans could allow them to limbo back under the luxury tax threshold after their deadline push fell flat.

No other player known to be on waivers has the upside of Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has had a tough time in Orange County, allowing a 6.89 ERA over six starts. Giolito has been the victim of a home run barrage in Southern California, allowing multiple longballs in three of those appearances. Clearly, the past month hasn’t gone as he or the team had envisioned. Yet we’re only four weeks removed from Giolito and reliever Reynaldo López (also now on waivers) fetching two of the Halos’ top prospects in trade. Now, another team could have him for nothing more than the approximate $1.9MM remaining on his arbitration contract.

Giolito isn’t the only starter out there, but he’s by far the most appealing (at least among the players publicly reported to be on waivers). The Mets made Carlos Carrasco available. He has a 6.80 ERA through 20 starts on the season, though. He hasn’t shown much sign of recent progress, allowing 35 runs and a staggering .404/.450/.654 opponents’ batting line in 29 innings since the All-Star Break. It’s hard to imagine him as an upgrade for a contending pitching staff, particularly since there’s still around $2.6MM remaining on his $14MM salary.

Mike Clevinger would be a clearer roster upgrade than Carrasco. He missed a month and a half midway through the year with biceps inflammation. A return one start before the August 1 deadline wasn’t sufficient to drum up trade interest. Clevinger has turned in a solid enough season, though, pitching to a 3.32 ERA over 97 2/3 innings. While his 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk percentage are each worse than average, it’d be easy enough for a number of hopeful contenders to find room for Clevinger at the back of their rotation — at least from an on-field perspective.

Complicating matters is the structure of the righty’s contract. Clevinger’s $8MM salary isn’t the issue, as most teams could easily accommodate the roughly $1.5MM still to be paid out. Yet there’s also a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for next season. Clevinger receives the buyout regardless of which side declines the option and is very likely to return to free agency since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides. A claiming team would have to take on responsibility for the buyout as well — it’s all or nothing for assuming a player’s contract off waivers — so it’d be a nearly $5.5MM investment for a month (and perhaps a playoff run) of Clevinger’s services.

That’s a tough sell for a team. If there were no option buyout, he’d need to be playing this season on a $30MM salary to have that kind of money remaining on his deal. It’s hard to imagine any team views Clevinger as equivalent to a $30MM pitcher, even for just a few weeks.

While Carrasco and Clevinger seem like borderline waiver claims at best, there’s little doubt someone will add Giolito. Despite his recent struggles, he’d be a clear upgrade for fringe contenders with uncertain rotation outlooks.

A few things to remember before taking a look at the likeliest teams to make a claim. It’ll be a club with playoff aspirations. Giolito would be the best pitcher on the A’s, but there’s no incentive for them to add him when he’ll be a free agent in five weeks. Yet he’s probably not going to wind up with one of the three best teams in the sport. Waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings as of tomorrow morning. The Dodgers, Orioles and/or Braves could place a claim, but it’s very likely someone with a worse record will do so as well and beat them out.

Let’s identify potential fits (in expected waiver priority order):

  • Padres (62-72)

This could be a test of how much optimism remains in the San Diego front office. The Padres are 10 games under .500 and eight out of the final NL Wild Card spot. A postseason run is hard to envision at this point. Yet the Friars held Blake Snell and Josh Hader at the deadline and acquired Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Scott Barlow and Rich Hill. If there’s any hope for 2023 left at Petco Park, a Giolito claim would be the last sign. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are on the injured list, leaving Hill and Pedro Avila in the starting five. There’s room for Giolito on the roster. A couple million dollars doesn’t seem much of a deterrent for owner Peter Seidler. The question is simply whether the Padres still think they have a shot.

  • Marlins (66-66)

Miami looked into rotation possibilities at the deadline but ultimately brought in just a depth starter in Ryan Weathers. They’ve kept Edward Cabrera in Triple-A for the past month. Johnny Cueto is on the injured list, while it’s unclear if Trevor Rogers will return at all this season. There’s a strong front four in Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and rookie Eury Pérez. There’s enough uncertainty with the final rotation spot that Miami could consider a claim.

Notably, the Marlins aren’t guaranteed to remain above the Reds’ in the waiver order. A Marlins win over the Rays paired with a Cincinnati loss in San Francisco would push Miami’s win percentage marginally above that of the Reds.

  • Reds (68-66)

The Reds are the first club where it’d be incredibly surprising if they didn’t put in a claim on Giolito. Cincinnati didn’t address their rotation at the deadline despite ranking 27th at the time in rotation ERA. They’ve been no better over the past month, with their starters allowing 5.86 earned runs per nine in 26 games. Hunter Greene returned from the injured list in the intervening weeks but was shelled in his first two starts back. Nick Lodolo —  initially expected back from a leg injury at the end of this month — suffered a setback. Even with Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson performing well of late, there’s clear room for more help. The Reds checked in with the White Sox about their rotation before the deadline, presumably at least gauging Chicago’s asking price on Giolito before they sent him to Anaheim.

  • Twins (69-65)*

Giolito would be a luxury buy for a Minnesota club that’s on its way to an AL Central title. The rotation is already strong, anchored by Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan. The Twins have gotten decent enough work from Dallas Keuchel that they optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A. Placing a claim would simply be about deepening the pitching staff for the postseason, where skipper Rocco Baldelli could have quicker hooks for everyone aside from López and Gray.

  • Red Sox (69-64)

The Red Sox may feel their rotation is strong enough to pass on Giolito. They’re running with a starting five of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. That’s a pretty good group, although they’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA and strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. Paxton, Sale and Houck have had injury concerns. Houck and Crawford have spent time in the bullpen this season.

Starting pitching isn’t necessarily a need, but adding any kind of talent could be welcome for a club that has fallen 6.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot. Boston has roughly $9MM in payroll space before reaching the base luxury tax threshold, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’d only take on the remaining portion of Giolito’s salary if they claimed him, so that shouldn’t be an issue.

  • Diamondbacks (69-64)

If Cincinnati, Boston (and everyone else in front of them) passes on Giolito, the D-Backs figure to step in. They’re quite similar to the Reds. Arizona’s a surprise contender that sought but didn’t find rotation upgrades for the deadline. They also touched base with the Sox on Giolito. There’s still very little depth beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Righty Slade Cecconi has five MLB appearances to his name. Brandon Pfaadt has been knocked around as a rookie. Zach Davies probably shouldn’t be starting for a team with playoff aspirations. Tommy Henry, arguably the club’s third-best starter, seems likely to miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.

*Note: Boston, Minnesota and Arizona could swap places in waiver priority tonight. When multiple clubs have the same record, priority goes to the team in the same league as the team that put the player on waivers. Within leagues, priority goes to the team that had the worse record in prior seasons. If they all have the same record going into tomorrow, the order would go Minnesota (worse record than the Red Sox in 2021) – Boston – Arizona.

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It’s tough to envision scenarios where Giolito gets past the Diamondbacks. At least one of Miami, Cincinnati and Arizona should be motivated enough to make a claim. Contenders like the Cubs, Rays, Orioles and Dodgers may all have interest, but it’d require inexplicable decisions to pass on the part of a few teams in front of them. Perhaps clubs near the back of the waiver order will consider a flier on Clevinger as a fallback, though the aforementioned contract situation makes that far less appealing than getting Giolito would be.

White Sox Reportedly Place Mike Clevinger On Waivers

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The White Sox have placed started Mike Clevinger on waivers, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This is one of several moves today as players with notable salaries are being placed on waivers by clubs out of contention, trying to dump some salary by having a contending club put in a claim.

Clevinger, 32, is playing the season on a one-year, $12MM contract, though the structure of the deal leaves a decent chunk yet to be paid out. The veteran righty is earning an $8MM salary, with about $1.42MM of that yet to be paid out, but is also owed a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for the 2024 campaign. As such, there’s about $5.42MM in total guarantees remaining for any club that places a claim.

Steep as that price may be for a month of work (and potentially more during the playoffs), Clevinger would be an upgrade to the pitching staff of most contending clubs. He’s made 18 starts for the White Sox this season, tallying 97 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball along the way. Clevinger’s 20.8% strikeout rate is down nearly seven percentage points from its peak, and he’s walked 9.3% of his opponents this year — right in line with his career mark.

Clevinger missed about six weeks of the summer due to inflammation in his right biceps but has done his best work of the season since being activated. In six post-IL starts, the right-hander has notched a 2.31 earned run average and 3.39 FIP while fanning opponents at a 23.7% clip against an 8.3% walk rate. Clevinger’s most recent outing saw him punch out 10 A’s hitters across seven one-run frames, and he also blanked the Cubs while posting seven strikeouts over seven innings back on Aug. 16.

The White Sox didn’t move Clevinger as part of their deadline sell-off, presumably because he only returned from the injured list just three days before the deadline itself. Given the injury uncertainty, a less-impressive pre-IL performance and the amount of money remaining on his contract, other teams were surely wary of giving up much of anything to acquire him in a trade. Today’s placement on waivers gives the South Siders the opportunity to at least shed some of the money he’s owed.

If Clevinger goes unclaimed, the Sox could still let him go in order to try to latch on with a contender between the expiration of his waiver period and the Aug. 31, 11:59pm ET deadline for postseason eligibility. In that scenario, the new team would only owe him the prorated league minimum, which would be subtracted from the Sox’ obligation to Clevinger.

Clevinger is essentially a rental player — mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties — and he’ll now be made available to all 29 other clubs, in order of reverse standings. Unlike the now-defunct revocable August trade waivers, outright waivers are not league-specific. (MLBTR has confirmed this with league sources on multiple occasions.) Waiver priority on Clevinger and all other veteran players who were waived today will be based on a worst-to-first basis, beginning with the A’s and ending with the Braves.

White Sox Select Edgar Navarro, Activate Mike Clevinger

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The White Sox announced they’ve selected reliever Edgar Navarro onto the major league roster. Chicago also reinstated Mike Clevinger from the 15-day injured list.

Navarro, 25, gets his first major league call. The Venezuela native signed with Chicago as an amateur free agent late, beginning his professional career at age 20. (Most Latin American amateurs sign at 16). Predictably, Navarro didn’t generate much prospect attention given his late-blooming background. He combined for a 3.64 ERA in 54 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season to put himself somewhat on the radar.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs named him an honorable mention on his write-up of the Sox’s farm system last winter, pointing to a traditional sinker/slider combination. Navarro has indeed racked up plenty of grounders between the top two minor league levels this year, including a 60% grounder rate in 34 1/3 Triple-A frames. That has contributed to a reasonable 4.19 ERA despite a below-average 21.2% strikeout percentage and particularly alarming 16% walk rate.

Clevinger is back after a six-week absence due to biceps inflammation. He’ll take the ball this evening against the Guardians in what’ll be his last start before Tuesday’s trade deadline. It’s not much time to drum up interest, though it stands to reason some other clubs will send evaluators to keep an eye on his form. There’s little reason for the White Sox to hold Clevinger past the deadline if they can find a trade partner.

The righty has a 3.88 ERA over 12 starts, though his 19.3% strikeout percentage and 9.3% walk rate are each a bit worse than average. Clevinger’s average fastball velocity was above 94 MPH before the injury, but his 9.2% swinging strike percentage was the lowest of his career. Clevinger is owed around $2.8MM in salary through season’s end. That’s a reasonable amount, but he’ll also be due a $4MM buyout on next year’s mutual option at the start of the offseason, which could be the biggest impediment to a trade.

Marcos Grunfeld of El Emergente first reported Navarro’s call-up last night.

Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters

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The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.

Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.

With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.

He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.

Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.

While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.

Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.

There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.

Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.

Latest On White Sox’s Deadline Plans

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The White Sox could be one of the most interesting sellers of this year’s deadline. Chicago lost their last two heading into the All-Star Break and sit 16 games under .500 at 38-54. They’ve fallen eight games back of Cleveland in the AL Central, in which they now occupy fourth place.

Chicago has a number of players who are relatively close to free agency whom they could market in trade. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Sox are prepared to seriously consider offers on all but four players: center fielder Luis Robert Jr., ace Dylan Cease, first baseman Andrew Vaughn and left fielder Eloy Jiménez. Heyman suggests that while no one on the roster might be categorically untouchable, Chicago’s “clear intention” is to retain those four players.

Last month, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote that Chicago was telling rival clubs they were focused on retaining players under control beyond this season. Genuinely considering offers on everyone aside from Cease, Robert, Vaughn and Jiménez would represent a change in direction, although the Sox would still resist moving any of their most valuable long-term assets.

Chicago has a number of likely impending free agents who are apparent trade candidates. Starter Lucas Giolito and relievers Keynan Middleton and Reynaldo López are pure rentals; all three appeared among MLBTR’s top 20 trade candidates last week. So did starter Lance Lynn, whose contract contains an $18MM team option that appears likely to be bought out for $1MM. Reliever Joe Kelly, controllable for next season via $9.5MM club option ($1MM buyout), also ranked highly on that list.

The Sox have a few more players with relatively pricy 2024 options. Closer Liam Hendriks has a $15MM option that comes with a matching buyout figure. That seems likely to be exercised, as buying Hendriks out would only allow the Sox to defer that payment over a 10-year span. Tim Anderson’s deal contains a $14MM team option or a $1MM buyout. Anderson is having a terrible season (.223/.259/.263 over 290 plate appearances) that could at least force the organization to reconsider an option that looked like an easy call a few months ago. The Mike Clevinger deal contains a $12MM mutual provision which the club will probably buy out for $4MM.

Yasmani Grandal and Elvis Andrus are the other impending free agents on the roster. Grandal is hitting at a decent .251/.317/.374 clip, but trades of catchers midseason are fairly rare and he’s making an $18.25MM salary that’d be difficult to move. Andrus isn’t producing, hitting .208/.286/.266.

The White Sox considering offers on anyone in that group isn’t too surprising. The majority are unlikely to be on the South Side beyond this season. It’d be an inopportune time to deal Anderson or Hendriks (currently on the injured list with elbow inflammation), although the front office could look into it if they’re contemplating declining next year’s option on either player.

Giolito, in particular, seems all but assured to change uniforms. MLBTR’s #1 trade candidate has tossed 112 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball across 19 starts. He’s striking out over a quarter of opponents and looks the part of a durable #2/3 starter on a playoff team. He’s on track for a nine-figure contract that’d be larger than any in White Sox’s franchise history. Chicago should get more in trade this summer than the value of the draft choice they’d receive if they allow him to depart in free agency after declining a qualifying offer.

Heyman suggests the Reds and Rangers could check in Giolito. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has gone on record about a desire to add pitching. The NL Central-leading club is very likely to upgrade a starting staff that’s presently without Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo. Texas has gotten strong results out of their rotation but could look to add depth as they try to maintain a two-game lead in the AL West. They’ve reportedly checked in on Lynn as well, though Giolito would be the more impactful and costlier (in terms of prospect capital) addition.

One controllable player whom the Sox seem at least somewhat willing to consider moving: starter Michael Kopech. Heyman writes the Sox would be more amenable to relinquishing Kopech than anyone from the Robert, Cease, Vaughn, Jiménez group.

While the 6’3″ right-hander is only in his second full season as a big league starter, he’s not all that far off free agency. Kopech will soon surpass four years of MLB service and is eligible for arbitration through the 2025 campaign — the same control window as Cease. He’s playing this season on a $2.05MM salary.

Kopech landed on the 15-day injured list last week with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He’s generally expected back not long after the Break, however, so he could have multiple starts before the August 1 deadline. If he’s in form, he’d surely generate interest.

Through 16 starts and 86 innings, Kopech has worked to a 4.08 ERA. He’s striking out 26% of opponents on a solid 11.4% swinging strike percentage while averaging over 95 MPH on his fastball. There’s clearly plenty of promise with the 27-year-old righty, but he has not yet established himself as the top-of-the-rotation arm some evaluators had envisioned. That’s largely due to spotty control, as his 13.1% walk rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 15 starts.

There’s obviously far less urgency for general manager Rick Hahn and his staff to move Kopech than with any of the impending free agents. Chicago isn’t going to embark on a full teardown and rebuild, so they figure to hold firm to a lofty asking price on their controllable mid-rotation starter. Still, the front office seems more amenable than they were a few weeks ago to consider moving players besides their collection of talented rentals.

Chicago Notes: Stroman, Hendriks, Clevinger

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Cubs ace Marcus Stroman exited his start against the Cardinals in London this morning after just 3 1/3 innings of work due to a blister on his right index finger. Fortunately, as noted by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, the injury is not currently considered to be particularly serious. In conversation with reporters following the game, Stroman pointed out that this wasn’t the first time he’s dealt with blisters in his career, likely referencing his 2018 trip to the IL with a blister on his right middle finger. That stint on the shelf ultimately lasted two weeks, but Stroman says that he’s optimistic he’ll be able to make his next start, which would likely be slated for next weekend’s series against the Guardians.

It’s hard to overstate Stroman’s importance in keeping the Cubs afloat this season. After today’s loss to the Cardinals in London, the north siders sport a 37-39 record that leaves them just three games back of the Reds for the division title in a weak NL Central. That the club remains within striking distance in the division can be attributed heavily to the performance of Stroman, whose 2.28 ERA entering play today led the NL, while his 196 ERA+ led the majors.

Stroman’s dominant performance so far this season has made it seem like a no-brainer for him to decline a $21MM player option following the 2023 campaign and test the open market. Despite that, he’s been vocal about his desire to stay in Chicago even as the lack of extension discussions have led to trade speculation. Whether the Cubs ultimately fall out of contention as the calendar flips to July and the trade rumors intensify or the club cements itself as contenders who will continue to lean on their best pitcher down the stretch\, the club is surely hoping for a quick return to the mound for the veteran right-hander. In the event Stroman does miss time, the Cubs seem likely to rely on the services of youngster Hayden Wesneski in his stead.
More from Chicago…

  • Speaking of veteran right-handers who could draw interest from clubs ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, the White Sox might welcome Mike Clevinger back to the active roster prior to the All Star break. Manager Pedro Grifol indicated to reporters, including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin, that a return prior to the midsummer classic was possible, but that he won’t return in a relief role and will be held out until he can be built back up to rotation-length outings. Clevinger has offered solid if uninspiring consistency at the back of the south side’s rotation this season, pitching to a 3.88 ERA and 4.88 FIP in 62 2/3 innings of work. A return before the All Star break could give potential suitors additional confidence in Clevinger’s health ahead of the trade deadline, when the 34-45 White Sox seem likely to sell off rental assets.
  • Sticking with the White Sox, one hurler who Grifol asserts will definitely not return prior to the All Star break is closer Liam Hendriks, who is on the shelf with right elbow inflammation. While Hendriks initially expressed optimism he could return in a couple of weeks, citing a similar injury last season that cost him three weeks, Grifol’s updated timeline would put the right-hander out of action for over a month. Hendriks has pitched just five innings this season between his current stint on the IL and his recovery from a battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma. With Hendriks on the shelf, Kendall Graveman has stepped in as the closer for the White Sox this season.

White Sox Place Mike Clevinger On Injured List

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The White Sox placed starter Mike Clevinger on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 15, due to biceps inflammation. Jesse Scholtens was recalled from Triple-A Charlotte to replace him on the MLB roster.

Clevinger came out of Wednesday’s start once the biceps pain first developed. The right-hander acknowledged the injury “kind of scared” him at first, but he told reporters last night an MRI didn’t reveal any structural damage in his elbow or shoulder (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times). While the inflammation is still enough to keep him out for at least a few weeks, that everything is structurally intact offers hope he’ll avoid a long-term absence.

The Sox signed Clevinger to a one-year, $12MM free agent deal last offseason. They were hoping he’d more closely resemble the upper mid-rotation form he’d shown in Cleveland, but Clevinger has turned in similar back-of-the-rotation results as he had with San Diego last year. His 3.88 ERA over 12 starts belies a below-average 19.3% strikeout rate and slightly elevated 9.5% walk percentage. This season’s 9.2% swinging strike rate is the lowest of his career.

While that’s not the most exciting production, there’s value in stable back-of-the-rotation innings. That’s particularly true for a Chicago team with questionable rotation depth. The Sox had remarkably avoided an injury to any of their top five starters until now, but sixth starter Davis Martin is down for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Scholtens could be the top depth option. Manager Pedro Grifol said this evening he’s tentatively penciled in for Monday’s start against the Rangers while leaving open the possibility of deploying him out of the bullpen this weekend instead (Van Schouwen link). Scholtens made a spot start earlier this season. He’s pitched nine times with Charlotte, posting a 4.44 ERA in 46 2/3 innings.

How quickly Clevinger returns could be relevant to the trade market. The 30-40 White Sox are reluctant to deal players under club control beyond 2023. Clevinger, though, is more or less a rental. His contract contains a $12MM mutual option for next season, though those are almost always bought out by one side. He’s likely to collect a $4MM buyout and hit free agency at year’s end. If Clevinger is back on the diamond and the Sox haven’t closed the gap in a still winnable AL Central, he’d be a straightforward trade candidate.

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