AL East Notes: Yankees, Montgomery, Red Sox, Clevinger, Shenton
Prior to the southpaw signing with the Diamondbacks last night on a one-year deal that guarantees him $25MM, the Yankees were among the teams most frequently connected to Jordan Montgomery this winter as the 31-year-old’s former club scouted out potential rotation upgrades in free agency. Reporting connected the sides throughout the offseason and while initial reports indicated that New York was more focused on Blake Snell and Montgomery preferred a return to the Rangers, the sides seemingly reopened negotiations on a hypothetical reunion last week. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, however, the sides never got particularly close to a deal before the southpaw landed in Arizona.
Heyman writes that the Yankees remained in talks with Montgomery’s agent, Scott Boras, in the days leading up to his deal with the Diamondbacks but that the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which levies a 110% tax rate on spending beyond $297MM, proved to be a major obstacle in negotiations between the sides. While the Yankees suggested a four-year deal to the southpaw’s camp (which Heyman indicates may not have reached the “offer” stage of negotiations), the hypothetical pact would have guaranteed Montgomery just $72MM with heavy deferrals that Heyman indicates would have taken the deal’s net-present value to just $46MM.
That $11.5MM AAV clocks in at less than half of the $25MM Montgomery will earn in 2024, and the total guarantee over four seasons is less than the $47.5MM Montgomery would be able to earn over two seasons provided he makes at least 18 starts in 2024. While Montgomery was rumored to be searching for a long-term deal even as the calendar flipped to March, it would have been a shock if the left-hander hadn’t been able to beat the club’s offer elsewhere on the free agent market. With Montgomery now off the table, the Yankees figure to enter the regular season with a starting rotation of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil while ace right-hander Gerrit Cole nurses inflammation in his elbow.
More from around the AL East…
- The Red Sox were also frequently tied to Montgomery as a potential suitor this winter, and were a frequently speculated destination for a number of starters in all tiers of free agency. Despite that wide-ranging reported interest, however, the club only came away with right-hander Lucas Giolito this winter. In the wake of Giolito undergoing an internal brace procedure on his UCL this spring the club also added righty Chase Anderson on a big league deal, though it appears they aren’t exploring further additions to their rotation mix at this point. WEEI’s Rob Bradford reported yesterday that the club has not made an offer to the lone remaining free agent starter of note, right-hander Mike Clevinger, who pitched to a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts with the White Sox last year. The club’s internal options of Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock will need to take a major step forward this season in order to improve upon the 4.68 ERA last year’s rotation mix posted despite losing veteran lefties Chris Sale and James Paxton.
- The Rays have struggled with injuries to their positional corps this spring, and key pieces such as Josh Lowe, Taylor Walls, and Jonathan Aranda are all slated to open the season on the injured list. Those injuries have created an opportunity for one player, however, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times noted this evening that infielder Austin Shenton is slated to make the Rays’ Opening Day roster as the final piece of the club’s bench mix. Shenton, 26, has never appeared in the majors before and struggled to a .195/.214/.244 line in 15 games this spring but excelled at the plate in the minors last year, raking to the tune of a .304/.423/.584 slash line in 134 games split between the Double- and Triple-A levels. Shenton has experience at first, second, and third base as well as both outfield corners and figures to act as a left-handed complement to the likes of Harold Ramirez, Amed Rosario, and Curtis Mead in the club’s positional mix to open the season.
Mike Clevinger Seeking One-Year Deal
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that right-hander Mike Clevinger is seeking a one-year contract according to Clevinger’s agent, Seth Levinson of ACES.
The news regarding Clevinger’s market sets up a contrast between the veteran right-hander and the other free agent starting pitchers still available. Top-of-the-market southpaws Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are both seeking pricey multi-year contracts, with the latest reporting on Snell indicating that the lefty is seeking an opt-out laden two- or three-year guarantee with an AAV in the $30MM range, while Montgomery was rumored to be angling for a seven-year pact earlier this month. Even righty Michael Lorenzen, the other mid-market pitcher still available, is reportedly seeking a two-year deal, with recent reports indicating that the 32-year-old has turned down one-year offers in the $5-7MM range.
While it’s not clear where Clevinger’s salary expectations are as things stand, it’s nonetheless easy to see the 33-year-old’s willingness to accept a one-year deal making the right-hander a more attractive option for clubs looking to bolster their pitching depth with less than two weeks remaining until Opening Day. The dwindling time to find a new home before the season begins is perhaps even more significant for Clevinger than it is for other players left on the market, as the veteran has not been publicly connected to any of MLB’s 30 clubs since hitting free agency back in November.
Despite that lack of public interest, the veteran was clearly among the more interesting mid-to-back of the rotation options available this winter, even as free agency was just getting started. While Clevinger can hardly be expected to replicate the early-career dominance he enjoyed in Cleveland that saw him compare favorably to front-of-the-rotation arms such as Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer, a strong platform campaign with the White Sox last year saw Clevinger flash mid-rotation results. Despite being limited to just 131 1/3 innings by a right wrist injury, the veteran posted a solid 3.77 ERA with a 4.28 FIP in Chicago last season, with even stronger results after returning from the injury in late July. Over his final 12 starts last year, Clevinger pitched to a 3.67 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.75 FIP.
That solid mid-rotation performance comes with some questionable peripherals, however. While Clevinger’s velocity returned in his second season back from Tommy John surgery last year as he average 94.6 mph with his heater, he struck out just 20% of batters faced while generating grounders at a career-worst 30.9% clip. Clevinger’s below-average strikeout and groundball rates are a far cry from his peak years in Cleveland, when he struck out 28.3% of batters faced to go along with a 40.3% grounder rate. Even with those diminished peripherals, however, Clevinger figured to be an excellent option for a club looking to bolster the back of its rotation this winter.
Of course, that hasn’t panned out to this point as Clevinger remains on the market, but a rash of pitching injuries around the game could perhaps open the door for Clevinger to latch on with a club in need of starting depth entering the season. The Red Sox, Astros, Marlins, Yankees, and Giants have all faced unexpected injuries in the rotation throughout the spring, and Clevinger could be a cost-effective insurance policy for any of those clubs if they wish to bolster their rotation in light of those injuries. While the veteran right-hander can’t be expected to replace the production of a front-of-the-rotation arm such as Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, or Eury Perez, his ability to offer stability to the middle or back of a club’s rotation could help raise the floor for a rotation-needy club ahead of Opening Day. What’s more, his apparent desire for a straight one-year pact provides flexibility that could be particularly attractive to clubs such as the Astros or Marlins that figure to have plenty of rotation depth in the long-term but are currently struggling with multiple injuries.
The Top Unsigned Starting Pitchers
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in about three weeks but a slow offseason means there are still plenty of free agents out there. MLBTR already took a look at the top catchers, first basemen, third basemen, shortstops and center fielders still available. Here’s a rundown of the top starting pitchers who’ve yet to sign.
Top-of-the-Market Arms
- Blake Snell: The two-time Cy Young Award winner has reportedly been seeking a deal worth $200MM or more. The Yankees are said to have offered Snell something in the vicinity of $150MM over a six-year term, but it’s understandable if Snell and agent Scott Boras are aiming higher coming off the lefty’s NL Cy Young win. The Yankees gave a larger contract to Carlos Rodon last offseason despite a shorter track record. Snell’s shaky command has been a talking point throughout his free agency, but an elevated 13.3% walk rate didn’t hinder him much in 2023 when he pitched 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball and whiffed 31.5% of his opponents. Snell made the easy call to reject a qualifying offer. He’ll eventually land a nine-figure contract, in all likelihood. Beyond the Yankees, he’s been connected to the Giants, Angels and Blue Jays.
- Jordan Montgomery: Montgomery’s climb from Tommy John rehab to bona fide playoff starter was steady and arguably under the radar — at least until last year’s postseason heroics. The 31-year-old has posted a sub-4.00 ERA and started 30-plus games in each of his three full seasons back from Tommy John surgery, steadily adding more innings each season. Taken in total, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball since Opening Day 2021, highlighted by a career-best 3.20 earned run average in a career-high 188 2/3 frames in 2023. Add in the 33 2/3 postseason innings of 2.67 ERA he’s chipped in, and the profile looks even better. Montgomery isn’t a flamethrower but is a durable arm with average strikeout and ground-ball rates, strong command and a repeated ability to manage hard contact. The Rangers want him back but are facing some financial questions regarding their television broadcast outlook. Other teams to which Montgomery has been tied include the Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals.
Solid Innings
- Mike Clevinger: Fans who remember Clevinger’s peak days in Cleveland probably value him more than the current market does. The now-33-year-old righty had a brief but excellent peak in 2017-20 when he tossed 489 1/3 innings and logged a 2.96 ERA. Clevinger missed the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery, however, and had a pedestrian 2022 campaign in San Diego. Last year’s 3.77 ERA in 131 1/3 innings with the White Sox was a step forward, but since returning from surgery Clevinger touts a lackluster 19.4% strikeout rate. His velocity is down a mile per hour from its peak, and he’s allowing more hard contact than ever — as well as more fly-balls than ever. Clevinger made 32 starts and pitched 200 innings in 2018. He’s never reached 25 starts in another season. He can improve the back of most teams’ rotations, but counting on him for more than 120 innings is tough.
- Michael Lorenzen: A big first half with the Tigers and a memorable no-hitter in his second start following a trade to the Phillies looked to have positioned Lorenzen for a sizable contract this winter. Things went south in a hurry following that no-hitter for the 32-year-old righty, however. Lorenzen hadn’t topped 100 innings since his rookie season and looked to hit a wall following that hitless gem. He allowed 23 runs in 26 innings over his next five starts, was dropped to the bullpen and immediately tagged for four runs in one-third of an inning. Lorenzen pitched 30 1/3 innings following the no-no and yielded an 8.01 ERA. Even prior to his slowdown, Lorenzen was sporting a well below-average strikeout rate. With last year’s 153-inning performance and 4.18 ERA fresh in mind, he’s a candidate to serve as a fourth starter somewhere.
- Hyun Jin Ryu: Many of the numbers for Ryu in his return from Tommy John surgery last year looked good: a 3.46 ERA, a 6.3% walk rate, a 45.6% ground-ball rate. Ryu, however, fanned only 17% of his opponents — a far cry from his 27.5% peak. He also managed only 52 innings in 11 starts — an average of about 4 2/3 frames per outing. Ryu only recorded an out after the fifth inning one time in 2023, and he had only 33 plate appearances in which he was facing his opponent for the third time in a game. His 88.8 mph average fastball was a career-low. Ryu can still help a rotation, but it’ll be hard to treat him like more than a pure five-inning pitcher, given last year’s usage.
Injury Cases
- Clayton Kershaw: In early November, Kershaw announced that he’d undergone surgery “to repair the gleno-humeral ligaments and capsule” in his left shoulder. If that sounds ominous, it is. He’s expected to be sidelined into the summer of 2024 at the very least. Kershaw was also a free agent last offseason, and the prevailing wisdom was that he’d re-sign with the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers, whose stadium is just a few miles from Kershaw’s offseason home. The Dodgers have said they want Kershaw back, but all parties are taking their time as he mends from that surgery. Once he’s ready to make a decision, it seems like it’ll come down to L.A. and Texas once again.
- Brandon Woodruff: The longtime Brewers co-ace was non-tendered after undergoing shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline late into the 2024 season. Woodruff would’ve been a free agent following the 2024 campaign anyhow, and the Brewers were understandably wary about paying him a projected $11.6MM in arbitration when he can’t even be considered a lock to pitch this year. Woodruff is a candidate to sign a high-priced two-year deal that’d allow him to spend the bulk of the 2024 campaign rehabbing. In an ideal scenario, he’d return late in the year to get some innings in before stepping back into a full rotation role in 2025. He fits best with a deep-pocketed team willing to take a chance on his 2025 season and capable of absorbing the financial hit if he can’t return to form. From 2018-23, Woodruff pitched 637 1/3 innings with a 2.98 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 42.4% ground-ball rate.
Former Dodgers hurlers Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias are both unsigned but could be long shots to return to MLB. No team signed Bauer last offseason after his record suspension under the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy was lifted; he’d been given a 324-game ban after sexual assault allegations arose, but that ban was reduced to 194 games after an appeal. The Los Angeles district attorney’s office declined to pursue criminal charges but did not proclaim Bauer innocent; rather, the DA’s office stated that proving the charges “beyond a reasonable doubt” was not feasible. Bauer signed with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and made 19 starts for their big league club, totaling 130 2/3 innings with a 2.76 ERA.
Urias, meanwhile, is currently under investigation after the DA declined to pursue felony charges following abuse allegations against the pitcher. He was referred for misdemeanor consideration, and the case is ongoing. Urias was allegedly captured on video in a physical altercation with a woman following an LAFC Major League Soccer match back in September. MLB has yet to conduct its own investigation while waiting for the legal process to play out. He finished the season on paid administrative leave. If the league eventually brings forth a suspension, Urias would become the first player to ever be suspended twice under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.
Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger
The market for free agent starters has been fairly busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board at the top of the market alongside a host of mid-level arms including Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the back end of the market has been fairly active, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn finding new homes on one-year deals earlier this winter. For all the buzz surrounding the free agent pitching market, however, one name stands out as having not come up in the rumor mill at all to this point in the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.
It’s something of a surprise that Clevinger’s market has involved such little fanfare, as the righty was one of the most dominant young arms in the league with Cleveland in the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated across 447 2/3 innings of work with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% better than league average by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 9.1% walk rate, good for a FIP of 3.32. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.
Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgery just four starts into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab wiped out his entire 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to post the worst season of his career. In 117 1/3 innings of work, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the first time he posted a ERA+ below the league average since becoming a full-time starter in 2017.
Clevinger’s peripherals also suffered considerably. Though the right-hander entered the 2022 campaign with a strong 27.3% career strikeout rate, he punched out just 18.8% of batters faced in his first year back from surgery. His batted ball metrics suffered as well: while he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip during his peak years in Cleveland, that figure fell to just 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The difficult season led Clevinger to sign a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox last offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by turning in a solid performance last year.
Clevinger’s time on the south side of Chicago got off to a rough start as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts, but the right-hander settled in from there to bring his ERA down to just 3.88 by the time a wrist injury sent him to the injured list in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to action six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and solid 3.88 FIP in his last eleven starts. Clevinger mostly cruised through the month of September until his final appearance of the year, where he was torched for six runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work to leave him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.
While Clevinger flashed his previous, dominant form at various points throughout the 2023 season and saw his average fastball velocity tick back up to 94.6, higher than his career average, it seems unlikely the veteran righty would be able to fully rediscover his previous form over a full season. After all, Clevinger’s groundball rate was at a career-worst 30.9% last season and while his strikeout rate did improve over 2022 it still sat at just 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at back in 2019 and pretty significantly below league average this past year.
Even so, the right-hander figures to be a quality, innings eating veteran who a club can comfortably place in the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. While Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball rates left something to be desired last year, he flashed strong command with a walk rate of just 7.3% while maintaining hard-hit and barrel rates significantly better than league average. Combined with his rediscovered velocity, it’s easy to see how the veteran right-hander could be an above average big league starter next season. If he can live up to that billing, the right-hander might prove to be a steal for the club that ultimately signs him this winter.
MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed 30th. That $13MM AAV would be something of a steal for a solid, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the pricey one-year deals arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by injury and under performance. Meanwhile, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass those marks on multi-year guarantees. While Giolito is three-and-a-half years younger than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger recent track record, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Clevinger posts comparable numbers to either pitcher in 2024 at a lower price point.
The veteran righty has been something of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any clubs directly connected to the right-hander. With that being said, plenty of teams are known to be in the market for starting pitching this winter including the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of those teams could benefit from adding Clevinger to their rotation mix, and he could prove to be an attractive backup option for teams that either can’t afford or fall short in the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who are unwilling to meet the asking prices for potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.
Mike Clevinger Declines Option With White Sox
Mike Clevinger has declined his half of a $12MM mutual option on his deal with the White Sox, the team announced. He receives a $4MM buyout and qualifies for free agency. Chicago also confirmed their previously-reported decision to buy out righty Liam Hendriks.
Clevinger spent one season on Chicago’s south side. He inked a $12MM guarantee last winter, collecting an $8MM salary and the buyout. He worked to a 3.88 ERA over 12 starts before biceps inflammation sent him to the injured list on June 16. The injury cost him six weeks and, arguably more importantly, a chance to pitch his way into trade candidacy. Clevinger was only able to make one start between his reinstatement from the injured list and the deadline.
That left the Sox to retain him for the remainder of a noncompetitive season. Chicago attempted to offload Clevinger’s salary by placing him on waivers in August. He went unclaimed, presumably because no other team wanted to take on the option buyout. The right-hander had an excellent August before a middling September. He concluded the year with a 3.77 ERA across 131 1/3 innings. Clevinger struck out a slightly below-average 20% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate.
Turning 33 in December, he has a good chance to land a multi-year contract this offseason. While a two-year deal seems likely, it’s not out of the question he finds a three-year pact. That made it a fairly easy call for his camp to pass on the net $8MM deal with Chicago.
The White Sox will need to add multiple starting pitchers this winter. Dylan Cease may be the only pitcher certain to occupy a spot in the Opening Day five. Michael Kopech figures to battle for a job, while Garrett Crochet has angled for a rotation opportunity. Jesse Scholtens and Touki Toussaint occupied back-end roles for the stretch run.
Mike Clevinger Clears Waivers
Right-hander Mike Clevinger has cleared waivers, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. He was available to any club willing to take on the remainder of his contract but they have all passed and he will stay with the White Sox.
Clevinger, 32, was one of several veteran players that was placed on waivers this week. With the trade deadline having gone by a month ago, non-contending clubs have little use for impending free agents but no way to exchange them for younger players. By placing them on waivers, they could have at least saved some money if another club put in a claim, as doing so requires taking on the remainder of the contract.
In the case of Clevinger, he could have been a sensible trade candidate at the deadline. The White Sox were well out of contention by that point and ended up trading away players like Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and others. However, he spent much of the summer on the injured list, first landing there in mid-May due to right wrist inflammation. He was activated in early June but returned to the IL a couple of weeks later due to right biceps inflammation, not being reinstated until July 29.
At the time of that second activation, he had only made 12 starts on the year with a 3.88 ERA but subpar strikeout and walk rates of 19.3% and 9.5% respectively. He didn’t get traded at that time but has improved his season since then. His last six starts have resulted in nine earned runs in 35 innings, which translates to a 2.31 ERA, with his strikeout rate ticking up to 23.7% in that time.
Though he may have increased his appeal relative to a month ago, the interest in a waiver claim was likely muted by his contract. He signed with the White Sox on a one-year, $12MM deal in the offseason, but it was in the form of an $8MM salary and $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for 2024. Though there’s only about $1.38MM left on that salary, any claiming team would also be responsible for that buyout, therefore taking on $5.38MM just to have Clevinger for a month. Prior to the trade deadline, the Sox could have offered to eat some of that cash as part of a deal but didn’t have that option in the waiver process. Though there are plenty of clubs that could have used another starter for the stretch run, it seems none of them were willing to pay that kind of price to do so.
Although Clevinger was placed on waivers, he was not designated for assignment or released, having stayed on the Chicago roster while the waiver process played out. Now that he has cleared, they can outright him to the minors or release him, though he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment while retaining his salary. It seems as though he will simply play out the remainder of the season with the Sox as they play out the string on a disappointing season.
The Best Fits For Lucas Giolito
Yesterday’s biggest development was the number of players reportedly on the waiver wire. The Angels, White Sox, Yankees, Mets and Tigers each put impending free agents on irrevocable waivers.
Those clubs are out of contention. The hope is that another team with a path to the playoffs will take what remains of this year’s contract off their hands. It’s particularly meaningful in the Angels’ case, as shedding enough veterans could allow them to limbo back under the luxury tax threshold after their deadline push fell flat.
No other player known to be on waivers has the upside of Lucas Giolito. The right-hander has had a tough time in Orange County, allowing a 6.89 ERA over six starts. Giolito has been the victim of a home run barrage in Southern California, allowing multiple longballs in three of those appearances. Clearly, the past month hasn’t gone as he or the team had envisioned. Yet we’re only four weeks removed from Giolito and reliever Reynaldo López (also now on waivers) fetching two of the Halos’ top prospects in trade. Now, another team could have him for nothing more than the approximate $1.9MM remaining on his arbitration contract.
Giolito isn’t the only starter out there, but he’s by far the most appealing (at least among the players publicly reported to be on waivers). The Mets made Carlos Carrasco available. He has a 6.80 ERA through 20 starts on the season, though. He hasn’t shown much sign of recent progress, allowing 35 runs and a staggering .404/.450/.654 opponents’ batting line in 29 innings since the All-Star Break. It’s hard to imagine him as an upgrade for a contending pitching staff, particularly since there’s still around $2.6MM remaining on his $14MM salary.
Mike Clevinger would be a clearer roster upgrade than Carrasco. He missed a month and a half midway through the year with biceps inflammation. A return one start before the August 1 deadline wasn’t sufficient to drum up trade interest. Clevinger has turned in a solid enough season, though, pitching to a 3.32 ERA over 97 2/3 innings. While his 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk percentage are each worse than average, it’d be easy enough for a number of hopeful contenders to find room for Clevinger at the back of their rotation — at least from an on-field perspective.
Complicating matters is the structure of the righty’s contract. Clevinger’s $8MM salary isn’t the issue, as most teams could easily accommodate the roughly $1.5MM still to be paid out. Yet there’s also a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for next season. Clevinger receives the buyout regardless of which side declines the option and is very likely to return to free agency since mutual options are almost never triggered by both sides. A claiming team would have to take on responsibility for the buyout as well — it’s all or nothing for assuming a player’s contract off waivers — so it’d be a nearly $5.5MM investment for a month (and perhaps a playoff run) of Clevinger’s services.
That’s a tough sell for a team. If there were no option buyout, he’d need to be playing this season on a $30MM salary to have that kind of money remaining on his deal. It’s hard to imagine any team views Clevinger as equivalent to a $30MM pitcher, even for just a few weeks.
While Carrasco and Clevinger seem like borderline waiver claims at best, there’s little doubt someone will add Giolito. Despite his recent struggles, he’d be a clear upgrade for fringe contenders with uncertain rotation outlooks.
A few things to remember before taking a look at the likeliest teams to make a claim. It’ll be a club with playoff aspirations. Giolito would be the best pitcher on the A’s, but there’s no incentive for them to add him when he’ll be a free agent in five weeks. Yet he’s probably not going to wind up with one of the three best teams in the sport. Waiver priority is in inverse order of the MLB standings as of tomorrow morning. The Dodgers, Orioles and/or Braves could place a claim, but it’s very likely someone with a worse record will do so as well and beat them out.
Let’s identify potential fits (in expected waiver priority order):
- Padres (62-72)
This could be a test of how much optimism remains in the San Diego front office. The Padres are 10 games under .500 and eight out of the final NL Wild Card spot. A postseason run is hard to envision at this point. Yet the Friars held Blake Snell and Josh Hader at the deadline and acquired Garrett Cooper, Ji Man Choi, Scott Barlow and Rich Hill. If there’s any hope for 2023 left at Petco Park, a Giolito claim would be the last sign. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are on the injured list, leaving Hill and Pedro Avila in the starting five. There’s room for Giolito on the roster. A couple million dollars doesn’t seem much of a deterrent for owner Peter Seidler. The question is simply whether the Padres still think they have a shot.
- Marlins (66-66)
Miami looked into rotation possibilities at the deadline but ultimately brought in just a depth starter in Ryan Weathers. They’ve kept Edward Cabrera in Triple-A for the past month. Johnny Cueto is on the injured list, while it’s unclear if Trevor Rogers will return at all this season. There’s a strong front four in Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and rookie Eury Pérez. There’s enough uncertainty with the final rotation spot that Miami could consider a claim.
Notably, the Marlins aren’t guaranteed to remain above the Reds’ in the waiver order. A Marlins win over the Rays paired with a Cincinnati loss in San Francisco would push Miami’s win percentage marginally above that of the Reds.
- Reds (68-66)
The Reds are the first club where it’d be incredibly surprising if they didn’t put in a claim on Giolito. Cincinnati didn’t address their rotation at the deadline despite ranking 27th at the time in rotation ERA. They’ve been no better over the past month, with their starters allowing 5.86 earned runs per nine in 26 games. Hunter Greene returned from the injured list in the intervening weeks but was shelled in his first two starts back. Nick Lodolo — initially expected back from a leg injury at the end of this month — suffered a setback. Even with Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson performing well of late, there’s clear room for more help. The Reds checked in with the White Sox about their rotation before the deadline, presumably at least gauging Chicago’s asking price on Giolito before they sent him to Anaheim.
- Twins (69-65)*
Giolito would be a luxury buy for a Minnesota club that’s on its way to an AL Central title. The rotation is already strong, anchored by Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Joe Ryan. The Twins have gotten decent enough work from Dallas Keuchel that they optioned Bailey Ober to Triple-A. Placing a claim would simply be about deepening the pitching staff for the postseason, where skipper Rocco Baldelli could have quicker hooks for everyone aside from López and Gray.
- Red Sox (69-64)
The Red Sox may feel their rotation is strong enough to pass on Giolito. They’re running with a starting five of Chris Sale, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford. That’s a pretty good group, although they’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA and strikeout rate since the All-Star Break. Paxton, Sale and Houck have had injury concerns. Houck and Crawford have spent time in the bullpen this season.
Starting pitching isn’t necessarily a need, but adding any kind of talent could be welcome for a club that has fallen 6.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot. Boston has roughly $9MM in payroll space before reaching the base luxury tax threshold, as calculated by Roster Resource. They’d only take on the remaining portion of Giolito’s salary if they claimed him, so that shouldn’t be an issue.
- Diamondbacks (69-64)
If Cincinnati, Boston (and everyone else in front of them) passes on Giolito, the D-Backs figure to step in. They’re quite similar to the Reds. Arizona’s a surprise contender that sought but didn’t find rotation upgrades for the deadline. They also touched base with the Sox on Giolito. There’s still very little depth beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Righty Slade Cecconi has five MLB appearances to his name. Brandon Pfaadt has been knocked around as a rookie. Zach Davies probably shouldn’t be starting for a team with playoff aspirations. Tommy Henry, arguably the club’s third-best starter, seems likely to miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury.
*Note: Boston, Minnesota and Arizona could swap places in waiver priority tonight. When multiple clubs have the same record, priority goes to the team in the same league as the team that put the player on waivers. Within leagues, priority goes to the team that had the worse record in prior seasons. If they all have the same record going into tomorrow, the order would go Minnesota (worse record than the Red Sox in 2021) – Boston – Arizona.
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It’s tough to envision scenarios where Giolito gets past the Diamondbacks. At least one of Miami, Cincinnati and Arizona should be motivated enough to make a claim. Contenders like the Cubs, Rays, Orioles and Dodgers may all have interest, but it’d require inexplicable decisions to pass on the part of a few teams in front of them. Perhaps clubs near the back of the waiver order will consider a flier on Clevinger as a fallback, though the aforementioned contract situation makes that far less appealing than getting Giolito would be.
White Sox Reportedly Place Mike Clevinger On Waivers
The White Sox have placed started Mike Clevinger on waivers, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. This is one of several moves today as players with notable salaries are being placed on waivers by clubs out of contention, trying to dump some salary by having a contending club put in a claim.
Clevinger, 32, is playing the season on a one-year, $12MM contract, though the structure of the deal leaves a decent chunk yet to be paid out. The veteran righty is earning an $8MM salary, with about $1.42MM of that yet to be paid out, but is also owed a $4MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option for the 2024 campaign. As such, there’s about $5.42MM in total guarantees remaining for any club that places a claim.
Steep as that price may be for a month of work (and potentially more during the playoffs), Clevinger would be an upgrade to the pitching staff of most contending clubs. He’s made 18 starts for the White Sox this season, tallying 97 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA ball along the way. Clevinger’s 20.8% strikeout rate is down nearly seven percentage points from its peak, and he’s walked 9.3% of his opponents this year — right in line with his career mark.
Clevinger missed about six weeks of the summer due to inflammation in his right biceps but has done his best work of the season since being activated. In six post-IL starts, the right-hander has notched a 2.31 earned run average and 3.39 FIP while fanning opponents at a 23.7% clip against an 8.3% walk rate. Clevinger’s most recent outing saw him punch out 10 A’s hitters across seven one-run frames, and he also blanked the Cubs while posting seven strikeouts over seven innings back on Aug. 16.
The White Sox didn’t move Clevinger as part of their deadline sell-off, presumably because he only returned from the injured list just three days before the deadline itself. Given the injury uncertainty, a less-impressive pre-IL performance and the amount of money remaining on his contract, other teams were surely wary of giving up much of anything to acquire him in a trade. Today’s placement on waivers gives the South Siders the opportunity to at least shed some of the money he’s owed.
If Clevinger goes unclaimed, the Sox could still let him go in order to try to latch on with a contender between the expiration of his waiver period and the Aug. 31, 11:59pm ET deadline for postseason eligibility. In that scenario, the new team would only owe him the prorated league minimum, which would be subtracted from the Sox’ obligation to Clevinger.
Clevinger is essentially a rental player — mutual options are almost never exercised by both parties — and he’ll now be made available to all 29 other clubs, in order of reverse standings. Unlike the now-defunct revocable August trade waivers, outright waivers are not league-specific. (MLBTR has confirmed this with league sources on multiple occasions.) Waiver priority on Clevinger and all other veteran players who were waived today will be based on a worst-to-first basis, beginning with the A’s and ending with the Braves.
White Sox Select Edgar Navarro, Activate Mike Clevinger
The White Sox announced they’ve selected reliever Edgar Navarro onto the major league roster. Chicago also reinstated Mike Clevinger from the 15-day injured list.
Navarro, 25, gets his first major league call. The Venezuela native signed with Chicago as an amateur free agent late, beginning his professional career at age 20. (Most Latin American amateurs sign at 16). Predictably, Navarro didn’t generate much prospect attention given his late-blooming background. He combined for a 3.64 ERA in 54 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A last season to put himself somewhat on the radar.
Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs named him an honorable mention on his write-up of the Sox’s farm system last winter, pointing to a traditional sinker/slider combination. Navarro has indeed racked up plenty of grounders between the top two minor league levels this year, including a 60% grounder rate in 34 1/3 Triple-A frames. That has contributed to a reasonable 4.19 ERA despite a below-average 21.2% strikeout percentage and particularly alarming 16% walk rate.
Clevinger is back after a six-week absence due to biceps inflammation. He’ll take the ball this evening against the Guardians in what’ll be his last start before Tuesday’s trade deadline. It’s not much time to drum up interest, though it stands to reason some other clubs will send evaluators to keep an eye on his form. There’s little reason for the White Sox to hold Clevinger past the deadline if they can find a trade partner.
The righty has a 3.88 ERA over 12 starts, though his 19.3% strikeout percentage and 9.3% walk rate are each a bit worse than average. Clevinger’s average fastball velocity was above 94 MPH before the injury, but his 9.2% swinging strike percentage was the lowest of his career. Clevinger is owed around $2.8MM in salary through season’s end. That’s a reasonable amount, but he’ll also be due a $4MM buyout on next year’s mutual option at the start of the offseason, which could be the biggest impediment to a trade.
Marcos Grunfeld of El Emergente first reported Navarro’s call-up last night.
Reds Have Shown Interest In White Sox’s Starters
The Reds have been in contact with the White Sox as they search for rotation help, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Threads). Specific targets aren’t reported, though it’s not hard to infer which players could be of interest.
Lucas Giolito is arguably the sport’s most apparent trade candidate. The right-hander is an impending free agent and has a 3.45 ERA through 19 starts. He’s striking out a little more than a quarter of opponents against a modest 7.3% walk rate. While Giolito’s velocity and whiffs are down marginally from a 2019-21 stretch that saw him post a 3.47 ERA in 72 appearances, he has rebounded nicely from a down 2022 season.
With the White Sox now 17 games below .500, they’re predictably approaching the deadline as sellers. The Sox aren’t expected to make a strong run at re-signing Giolito, whose upcoming free agent deal is likely to easily eclipse Chicago’s franchise-record $75MM guarantee for Andrew Benintendi.
He’d be a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer that would afford Chicago draft compensation if he signs elsewhere. They’ll almost certainly receive more compelling prospect offers in the next couple weeks though. The Dodgers have already checked in and virtually every contender figures to be in touch with Chicago GM Rick Hahn before August 1.
Giolito is playing this season on a $10.4MM arbitration salary. Around $3.35MM will be remaining from the deadline onwards. Cincinnati GM Nick Krall has indicated the club has the payroll flexibility to accommodate midseason trade targets. Rotation help is the obvious area to do so.
While Giolito would be the more appealing target for other teams, Chicago seems likely to move veteran righty Lance Lynn as well. The 36-year-old carries a career-high 6.03 ERA over 103 innings but has much better strikeout and walk marks. Lynn is fanning hitters at a strong 27.9% clip against an average 8.1% walk rate. His biggest issue, an MLB-worst 22 home runs allowed, could be a tough fit at Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. Still, the durability Lynn provides would be welcome for a Reds’ rotation light on experience at present.
Lynn is making $18.5MM this season. His contract contains an $18MM club option that seems likely to be bought out for $1MM. With the two-time All-Star likely headed to free agency next winter, the Sox figure to look for trade possibilities this month. That’s also true of Mike Clevinger, whose contract contains a $12MM mutual option the team will likely buy out for $4MM. They could be hard-pressed to find interest in Clevinger considering the fairly lofty buyout price and biceps inflammation that has had him on the injured list for a month.
There’s less urgency on either Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech. Both pitchers are eligible for arbitration through 2025. The asking price on either player — Cease especially — would be significantly higher than what the Sox would expect for even their top rental in Giolito. Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested earlier this week that Chicago could be willing to hear offers on Kopech but wasn’t interested in parting with Cease.
Cincinnati is surely in contact with a number of teams as they explore rotation possibilities. Tonight’s 1-0 loss to the Brewers dropped them into a tie with Milwaukee for first place in the NL Central. They’re still positioned as deadline buyers, of course, with a rotation that ranked 28th in ERA (5.69) entering play Friday standing as the big concern. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene are on the injured list. Cincinnati has rookie Andrew Abbott at the top of the rotation, followed by Graham Ashcraft, Ben Lively, Brandon Williamson and Luke Weaver. The latter two pitchers have struggled.