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Mookie Betts

Dodgers Extend Mookie Betts

By Steve Adams | July 22, 2020 at 7:24pm CDT

7:24pm: Betts’ contract includes a massive $65MM signing bonus, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter). The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal adds that the contract contains $115MM in deferrals, and the salaries are backloaded such that Betts will be paid $17.5MM in 2021 and 2022. There are no opt-outs in the deal, which does not come with a no-trade clause, per Rosenthal.

4:01pm: Mookie Betts is a Dodger for the long haul. The team announced this afternoon that Betts has signed a 12-year extension through the 2032 season. It’ll reportedly guarantee him a whopping $365MM in new money on top of this year’s $27MM salary (which has been prorated to $10MM due to the shortened 2020 season). Betts is represented by the VC Sports Group.

Mookie Betts | Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The contract represents the largest amount of new money ever promised to a Major League player on an extension or free-agent signing, topping Mike Trout’s previous highwater mark of $360MM (over a shorter 10-year term). Trout was already signed at two years and $66.5MM, so his total of 12 years and $426.5MM tops Betts’ 13-year, $392MM figure, but the $365MM new-money benchmark is a notable record nevertheless.

The Betts extension, somewhat remarkably, marks the first time that the Dodgers have guaranteed in excess of $100MM to a player under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Though the team is known for its enormous — at times seemingly limitless — spending capacity, the Friedman regime has worked diligently to shed some prior undesirable commitments and creatively limbo underneath the luxury-tax bar. Doing so paved the way for the Dodgers to issue a historic contract to a premium talent.

After missing out on a free-agent pursuit of Gerrit Cole this winter, the team shifted its focus to acquiring Betts, who came to L.A. alongside David Price in a blockbuster trade that sent Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong to Boston. There was plenty of talk about the team’s hope for extending Betts, but he’d been outspoken about his desire to test the open market. Paired with the economic uncertainty stemming from this year’s unprecedented revenue losses, there was real reason to wonder whether a deal would get done.

Perhaps that economic turmoil made Betts more amenable to taking a deal now rather than testing the market, or perhaps he was simply willing all along to sign if a team exceeded Trout’s new-money guarantee. His exact thinking likely won’t ever be fully known, but the end result is that Betts now appears poised to spend the remainder of an already excellent career in Dodger blue.

Still just 27 years of age, Betts has produced at star-caliber levels since a 52-game MLB debut back in 2014. A career .301/.379/.519 hitter, Betts is already a four-time All-Star, a three-time Silver Slugger winner, a former American League MVP and batting champion, and a four-time Gold Glove winner. He’s clubbed 139 home runs and swiped 126 bases in 794 Major League games, showing off an impressive blend of power and speed, and his 13.5 percent walk rate over the past two seasons is nearly the same as his paltry 14.5 percent strikeout rate. Add in that Betts is regarded as an otherworldly defender — he’s third among all players in Defensive Runs Saved since 2015, regardless of position — and it’s easy to see why Betts is regarded among the game’s elite players.

The Dodgers already boasted at least one of those elite talents: reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger. Betts and Bellinger will pair to form what could be baseball’s best one-two punch for at least the next four seasons, as Bellinger is controlled through at least the 2023 season. Out-of-nowhere slugger Max Muncy is also inked through the ’23 campaign on a highly reasonable three-year, $26MM pact, so that trio should continue thriving in the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. The hope is that rising young talents like infielder Gavin Lux and catcher Will Smith will add to that long-term core. Looking shorter-term, the Dodgers are stacked with above-average contributors, including Corey Seager (controlled through 2021), Justin Turner (through 2020), Chris Taylor (through 2021) and Enrique Hernandez (through 2020).

From a payroll and luxury-tax standpoint, the Dodgers can afford to both sign Betts and still pursue a megadeal with Bellinger, should they see fit. Betts’ contract comes with a $30.4MM annual luxury hit (or $30.1MM, if they roll it into the current deal), which is sizable but still only represents about a seventh of next year’s $210MM luxury cap. (That number could well rise in 2021 CBA negotiations, too.) Los Angeles already has more than $152MM in luxury commitments on the 2021 books, including this new deal for Betts, but that number plummets to $73MM in 2022. Betts is the only Dodger on a guaranteed deal for the 2023 season (although Bellinger, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias will all be arbitration-eligible).

With today’s agreement, Betts, Bellinger and Buehler look like the long-term faces of the Dodgers franchise, though the club has boundless young talent, a knack for high-profile trades and as previously noted, plenty of money to spend even with Betts pulling in more than $30MM on an annual basis. The Dodgers have won seven straight NL West titles, and the Betts deal is a strong step toward continuing that trend. That, of course, won’t be enough to satisfy Betts, though. As the star put it during today’s introductory press conference: “I’m here to win some rings.”

WEEI’s Lou Merloni reported earlier today that Betts was closing in on an extension worth more than $300MM. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the agreement and the terms just prior to the team’s announcement (Twitter thread).

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Dodgers Finalizing Extension With Mookie Betts

By Jeff Todd and Steve Adams | July 22, 2020 at 1:21pm CDT

1:21pm: The new portion of Betts’ contract, once finalized, will guarantee him around 12 years and $350MM on top of this year’s $27MM salary, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).

The structuring of the deal is in many ways semantics, but it’s worth noting that in terms of new money, Betts’ extension may not top the new money promised to Trout on his prior long-term deal. Referencing the Betts deal as a 13-year, $380MM contract may skew things such that it appears Betts has set a new record, but by that logic, Trout’s contract should be referred to as a 12-year, $426.5MM deal (i.e. the sum of his preexisting two years and $66.5MM and his 10-year, $360MM extension).

If the deal indeed lands Betts in the $380MM range over 13 years, including his 2020 salary, his contract then boils down to the second-richest ever promised to a big league player (whether looking at total guarantee or new money promised on an extension).

11:54am: Betts will top Trout’s deal if the contract is completed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

It’s expected that the deal will actually cover twelve additional seasons, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The total forward-looking guarantee would top $380MM, Passan adds, including Betts’s salary for the 2020 season. (It’s not clear whether that tally includes Betts’s full $27MM or only the pro-rated portion thereof.)

10:42am: In a stunning development that would mark a massive shift in a moribund player market, the Dodgers appear to be closing in on a long-term extension with recently acquired star Mookie Betts. WEEI.com’s Lou Merloni hears that the sides are nearing agreement even as Betts prepares to don the Dodger blue for the first time tomorrow. Joel Sherman tweets that talks are indeed “quite real.”

If completed, the contract would cover a ten-year term and guarantee Betts somewhere in the neighborhood of $350MM to $400MM, according to the report. It sounds as if it would come in right near, if not over, the ten-year, $360MM Mike Trout pact that currently stands as the largest-ever MLB contract.

The Dodgers paid a significant price in prospects and took on a lot of salary (both for Betts and David Price) in order to secure just one season from the 27-year-old. It always seemed the team had designs on a lengthier relationship, though it wasn’t at all clear that vows would be exchanged before Betts hit the open market.

Until the paperwork is complete, Betts stands as the obvious top talent of the 2020-21 free agent class. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained in his pre-pandemic power rankings, Betts, who is represented by VC Sports Group, seemed situated to “reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.”

Betts would have represented one of the most interesting-ever free agent cases. Recent market swings and upcoming collective bargaining negotiations provided a fascinating backdrop for the bidding on such a youthful, high-quality player. And then the coronavirus came along, overlaying broad uncertainty onto the situation.

It seems that both the Dodgers and Betts saw a path to limit the risk by striking a bargain now. They’ve certainly had time to get to know one another under trying circumstances over the past several months, even if Betts hasn’t yet recorded any stats for the storied ballclub.

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Mookie Betts On Resumption Of Play

By Jeff Todd | July 7, 2020 at 7:30am CDT

The Dodgers acquired Mookie Betts to chase a 2020 World Series. Before that, Betts spurned extension efforts by the Red Sox, making the 2020 season a critical platform year. There’s a lot at stake for both parties in the pandemic-shaped campaign.

Betts, who is finally back in a Dodgers uniform and nearing a potential regular season debut, discussed the situation with media members including Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. The 27-year-old outfielder indicated that his focus is on more immediate concerns rather than the past or the future.

Betts spoke about the two overarching issues that have dominated the national discourse since baseball hit pause in March. He indicated that he is focused right now on health and safety matters as camp gets underway. While he expressed some uncertainty as to whether the league can manage a return to play in the midst of the spread of the coronavirus, Betts says it’s a matter that’s ultimately out of his hands.

The superstar had a different take on the social justice issues he also discussed. Betts spoke of a personal responsibility to “bring baseball into Black communities.” He also indicated displeasure with MLB’s handling of the protests that erupted in the wake of George Floyd’s death. “I think baseball did not do a good job of that,” said Betts, “but I think voices were heard and that’s the main thing, that we get our voices heard and to make some changes.”

With Betts focused on gearing up to play in 2020, he says he’s not worried about contractual matters. “Free agency is on the back burner,” he says. While it’s likely MLB teams will be keeping a tighter hold on their wallets this winter, Betts doesn’t seem to be having second thoughts on his decision not to take what the Red Sox offered him in prior contract talks.

“I don’t regret turning that [extension offer] down,” says Betts. “Once I make a decision, I don’t go back and question myself. So I don’t worry about that. The market will be what the market is. We’ll just kind of cross that bridge when we get there.”

While Betts is quite sensibly not thinking about dollars and cents at the moment, it’s hard not to ponder his future here at MLBTR. We’ll see what the truncated 2020 season holds, but it’s quite likely that Betts will reach the open market as the best free agent position player in recent memory. Setting aside intervening financial uncertainties, it would stand to reason that Betts could top Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330MM pact and Mike Trout’s ten-year, $360MM extension (reached when he was two years from free agency). That’s all the more true given the boosted earnings we saw this past winter, when the Yankees promised $324MM to Gerrit Cole, a pitcher who was a full year older than Betts will be when he hits free agency.

Just how the market shapes up is impossible to say at this point. The near-term financial outlook is sure to depend on what kind of season MLB is able to pull off in the midst of a pandemic.

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Is There Any Way The Dodgers Can Win The Mookie Betts Trade?

By Tim Dierkes | April 22, 2020 at 1:44am CDT

In today’s video, Jeff Todd and I discuss how the Mookie Betts trade is affected by the coronavirus, and whether there might be a silver lining for the Dodgers.

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What Happens To The Mookie Betts Trade If The Season Is Canceled?

By Tim Dierkes | April 15, 2020 at 12:00am CDT

If the 2020 MLB season is canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic, players will receive service time equal to the amount they accrued in 2019.  That’s a win for any player who received a full year in ’19, as they’d remain on track for free agency as expected.  That includes Mookie Betts, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto, Trevor Bauer, and everyone else expected to be in the 2020-21 free agent class.

A canceled season would sting for someone like Dodgers second baseman Gavin Lux, who picked up 28 days of Major League service as a rookie last year but was likely to get a full season in 2020.  Lux’s free agency would have arrived after the 2025 season, but if this season is canceled, he’ll project to become a free agent after ’26.  And then there are others who didn’t get any MLB service in ’19 but were expected to in ’20, such as Wander Franco, Jo Adell, and Nate Pearson.

It’s worth considering how the balance would shift in recent major trades if there’s no 2020 season.  The Betts trade, where the Dodgers’ main acquisition was a star rental player, dramatically shifts toward the Red Sox.

Pre-coronavirus expectations of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get one year of Mookie Betts, three years of David Price, $48MM from the Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer after the season
  • Red Sox get five years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

Canceled season results of the Mookie Betts trade:

  • Dodgers get zero years of Mookie Betts, two years of David Price, $32MM from Red Sox and can make Betts a qualifying offer
  • Red Sox get four years of Alex Verdugo, six years of Jeter Downs and six years of Connor Wong

The Red Sox had been scheduled to pay $48MM to the Dodgers in 18 equal installments, starting tomorrow.  However, MLBTR has confirmed that all cash considerations will be adjusted proportionally to the salary reductions that end up occurring in 2020.  So if the Dodgers don’t wind up paying Price in 2020, the Red Sox won’t send money to them.  My $32MM figure assumes the 2021 season is played in full.

Price remains a useful pitcher, so it’s not as if the Red Sox gave up nothing of value.  And while they’d still pay the Dodgers $32MM in 2021-22, that’s only half what they’d have originally owed Price for his age 35-36 seasons.  The Sox might have accepted that arrangement with nothing in return from the Dodgers, but they still get to keep Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.  Though a canceled season would mean the Red Sox would lose the chance to reset under the luxury tax in 2020, that will be less challenging in ’21 given the Price trade and the fact that Jackie Bradley Jr. ($11MM) will be coming off the books.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, would find themselves without Betts, Verdugo, or Joc Pederson for the 2021 season (unless they re-sign Pederson as a free agent).  They’d lose a crucial year of control of Cody Bellinger, who would likely settle back in as the regular right fielder.  That would leave A.J. Pollock as the regular center fielder.  The Dodgers would have an even bigger question mark in left, where Pederson, Verdugo, and Pollock combined to take more than half of the innings in 2019.  Chris Taylor and Matt Beaty would be the main in-house candidates, so the Dodgers would likely have to make an outfield acquisition.

Betts could still wind up playing meaningful games for the Dodgers if the 2020 season is canceled, as they’d be a top contender for him in what could be a strange free agency period.  It would hardly be a shock to see the entire free agent market suffer due to teams’ lost revenue in 2020, forcing Betts to settle for less than he expected prior to the pandemic.

Could the Dodgers receive some sort of recourse on the Betts trade if the season is canceled?  I polled MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, and Connor Byrne, and none of them find that likely.  As Steve put it, “If there’s an alteration to the Betts deal, that just seems like opening Pandora’s box. Every team in the league would be clamoring for compensation because almost everyone would be getting screwed to some extent.”  Whether it’s the Reds acquiring Trevor Bauer last summer with an eye toward 2020, the Diamondbacks losing one of their two years of Starling Marte, or the Rangers losing a year of Corey Kluber, many teams are dealing with a similar situation.

For more on this topic, check out my new video discussion with Jeff Todd:

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Injury Notes: Snell, Carrasco, Mondesi, Dodgers

By Anthony Franco | March 8, 2020 at 8:03am CDT

We’ll round up the latest health news from around MLB on this Sunday morning.

  • Blake Snell will return to spring training action Monday, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. A bullpen session Friday went according to plan, Topkin adds, so the Rays feel comfortable allowing the 2018 AL Cy Young winner to begin building up innings in-game. It’s possible Snell won’t quite be ready for Opening Day, but it seems the cortisone shot he received in his throwing elbow last week isn’t indicative of any long-term issue.
  • Indians’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed recently by “mild elbow inflammation,” tweets MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. At this point, the club doesn’t consider the issue a great concern, Bell adds. A full, healthy season from Carrasco would certainly be a plus for Cleveland, who has traded away Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in the past calendar year and saw Mike Clevinger go down for the season’s first month-plus with a partial meniscus tear.
  • Royals’ shortstop Adalberto Mondesi has yet to make his spring training debut thanks to the shoulder surgery he underwent last September. His rehab was “paused” recently due to some soreness, manager Mike Matheny told reporters (via Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com), but a visit Friday with his surgeon confirmed Mondesi is on schedule in his recovery. Kansas City continues to hold out hope the talented 24-year-old will be able to return by Opening Day.
  • Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register has the latest on a few Dodgers’ health situations. Mookie Betts has missed a few games of action with food poisoning, but he could return to the lineup Monday, manager Dave Roberts tells Plunkett. Meanwhile, Joc Pederson will make his first spring training start in minor-league camp today as he recovers from a hip injury, while right-hander Jimmy Nelson is set for a bullpen session. Nelson was briefly shut down with groin discomfort two weeks ago.
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Latest On MLB’s Red Sox Investigation

By Mark Polishuk | March 1, 2020 at 8:03pm CDT

Back on February 16, commissioner Rob Manfred said that he hoped the league’s investigation into whether or not the Red Sox improperly used video replay technology to steal opponents’ signs would be concluded in two weeks’ time.  That loose deadline has now passed, and it is still unclear as to when the league will report its findings and issue penalties (if any) to any Red Sox personnel.  According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, a decision from the league isn’t expected to come this week, but “the plan is before the regular season.”

For comparison’s sake, the original Athletic piece from Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich about the Astros’ sign-stealing activities was published on November 12, and Major League Baseball announced its disciplinary actions against the Astros almost exactly two months’ later, on January 13.  The Rosenthal/Drellich report about the Red Sox was released on January 7, so assuming a general two-month window for such league investigations, it doesn’t seem outwardly unusual that MLB has yet to make an announcement as we hit March 1.

Circumstances could dictate a longer investigation, however.  Given that the league was so roundly criticized for the perceived lightness of its discipline towards the Astros, it isn’t unexpected that MLB would take a more measured approach in exploring any possible violation the Red Sox may have committed.  (Not that this would necessarily mean a bigger penalty — Sherman writes that the general feeling is that Boston’s “scheme was not as systemic or widespread as that of the Astros, thus, the penalties are not expected to be as severe.”)  Manfred told reporters two weeks ago that the Red Sox investigation involved “there have been a couple of developments…that slowed us down” and required secondary interviews with some involved parties.

Interestingly, the Dodgers may have received some slight insight into the investigation when the club was preparing to acquire Mookie Betts from the Sox.  Los Angeles “asked MLB if it should be concerned about acquiring Betts and were assured not to worry,” Sherman reports.  Red Sox players aren’t subject to possible suspensions as per the outcome of the investigation, since players were given immunity so they could feel free to openly discuss their knowledge of any illegal goings-on inside the clubhouse and video room.

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Red Sox Notes: Dalbec, Perez

By TC Zencka | February 29, 2020 at 12:02pm CDT

The identity of the Boston Red Sox is unclear now that Mookie Betts and David Price play for a different organization. The trickle down effect of losing a bat like Betts from a lineup will certainly affect the other Boston position players, but they still have a talented group of players on hand, starting with corner outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Alex Verdugo. If that sweet-swinging pair can take their games to the next level, the Red Sox should once again roster an above-average offense in 2020. Believe it or not, the Red Sox were fourth in the majors in runs scored last season, so even without Betts, they could surprise some people. Let’s check in on some camp battles worth watching in Red Sox territory…

  • Bobby Dalbec won’t be on the opening day roster, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Dalbec turns 25 this June, so it’s entirely likely he’ll be ready for major league action at some point this season. With Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis already on the roster, Dalbec is blocked at his natural position of third base. He has taken some reps at first base the last couple of seasons, which could pave the way for a 2020 debut. Mitch Moreland has his foot on the bag for now, with Chavis potentially sliding over from second against tough lefties. Even so, with the Red Sox holding a club option for Moreland in 2021 and a long history of just adequate offensive production, Moreland is hardly a monolith at first. With the expectation of making the opening day roster apparently dashed, Dalbec can focus in on the larger task at hand – putting himself in a position to usurp a roster spot at some point during the 2020 season. 
  • Martin Perez was courted this offseason by both the Rays and Red Sox, ultimately signing with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6MM deal just before Christmas. Perez, a client of OL Baseball Group LLC, felt strongly about joining the Red Sox, even going so far as to tell his agent that even if the Rays offered more money, he preferred signing in Boston, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Perez’s most recent body of work hardly suggest he’s worthy of a bidding war – bidding skirmish, say – but Jennings provides an insightful quote from Red Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, who says of Perez, “Basically, we felt two things. One, the stuff and the underlying way in which he pitched deserved better results than he got. And two, that there were further tweaks we could help him make to his repertoire to make him even more effective.” 
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The Athletics Have Placed Their Betts

By Jeff Todd | February 21, 2020 at 9:30pm CDT

At first glance, the Athletics didn’t really do much of note this winter. The club retained southpaw Jake Diekman and picked up infielders Tony Kemp and … picked up a club option over Yusmeiro Petit and … umm …. signed Ryan Goins to a minor-league deal.

Viewed through another lens, though, the notoriously low-budget A’s had a blockbuster, all-in offseason. Which lens is that? The one through which Red Sox owner John Henry views the game of baseball.

After trading away homegrown superstar Mookie Betts, Henry conveyed his cherished memories of Stan The Man for brownie points with the Boston fanbase. Saying his young heart would’ve shattered had childhood hero Stan Musial “ever been traded — for any reason,” the now-grown Henry … well, gave some reasons why Betts was sent west by one of the richest teams in sports.

It wasn’t about getting under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold, Henry says. Rather, it’s just the sort of thing that is foisted upon MLB teams — even those “consistently among the highest-spending clubs in baseball” — by the collective bargaining agreement (a deal those same teams negotiated to their general advantage).

The Red Sox, per Henry, were forced to “make hard judgments about competing for the future as well as the present.” Their hands were tied by the fact that, “In today’s game there is a cost to losing a great player to free agency — one that cannot nearly be made up by the draft pick given.” Ultimately, Henry said of the organization’s leadership: “we could not sit on our hands and lose [Betts] next offseason without getting value in return to help us on our path forward.”

There are many ways to approach and discuss these comments. For our purposes here, we’re not even going to consider what they mean for the Red Sox or the game of baseball. There’s no need to call for pitchforks; that statement has already had its day in the news cycle anyway. The Boston club certainly has spent and put a winner on the field of late. And Henry at least fessed up to the fact that the team simply decided to punt near-term performance for future value, even if he didn’t want to acknowledge the rather obvious financial component of that calculus.

What’s most interesting to me about the comments is that … holy smokes, the Oakland Athletics really believe! If Henry is to be taken at his word, then the A’s are making one heckuva roll of the dice by keeping, rather than trading, their own pending free agent star: shortstop Marcus Semien.

True, Semien almost assuredly isn’t as good as Betts, but the former actually contributed a full fWAR more than the latter in 2019. Semien is only earning $13MM, just under half the $27MM Betts will receive. But it’s a much bigger portion of the Oakland payroll than Betts was to the Boston budget. (That’s true just based upon simple math, but that tends to undersell the impact. The A’s have to consider every dollar spent over league minimum, while the Red Sox have far greater operating leeway to shoehorn in cost-efficient but more-than-minimum players.)

What of the odds of success in 2020, which is obviously a huge component of this decision? The Red Sox are well behind the Yankees on paper. But the A’s are chasing an uber-talented Astros team that remains mighty even without its crack signals operations unit. Both of these teams are unlikely to take their division, but each is a solid Wild Card contender. Fangraphs’ postseason odds aren’t gospel and obviously must be taken only as a guide to true roster capability (as they are intended) … but wait, how does this make sense? The Red Sox, sans Betts, project at about a coin flip of making the postseason. That tops the A’s, even with Semien! You might quibble with the projections and point to the upside on the Oakland roster. But don’t the Red Sox still have Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers?

So, even as the Red Sox determined they couldn’t “sit on [their] hands and lose” Betts without adequate compensation after the coming season, the Athletics decided to keep Semien in roughly analogous circumstances. Well, analogous from a roster talent and postseason odds perspective. The low-budget A’s are the sort of team that’s typically forced to take its Betts-type players off the table on the rationale set forth by Henry, even if it stings, in order to preserve a long-term flow of talent and keep up with deeper-pocketed rivals. Instead, they’re letting their version of Betts ride.

It’s quite the juxtaposition. Perhaps the A’s still have designs on a Semien extension, but it’s far from inevitable and we haven’t heard indication that a deal is particularly likely. And if one is to be struck, it’ll require convincing him to forego free agency … which will assuredly require the kind of price that makes the A’s squirm (even if they can now finally see a new ballpark on the horizon). A mid-summer trade fall-back is available but isn’t exactly plan A. All things considered, in relative terms, the situation is quite similar to that which would’ve faced the Red Sox on Betts.

Look, I don’t really have a Take here. I’m not here to call the Oakland front office reckless or label Henry’s explanation feckless. My point is only this: given those two teams’ divergent approaches, doesn’t Henry’s statement suggest that one or the other is true?

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Red Sox Ownership Downplays Role Of Luxury Tax In Mookie Betts Trade

By Steve Adams | February 17, 2020 at 5:35pm CDT

Apparently not content to let Jim Crane draw all the headlines for ownership comments worthy of skepticism, Red Sox principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner and president/CEO Sam Kennedy on Monday all denied that the trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers was driven by a desire to dip south of the luxury tax barrier.

In a lengthy prepared statement released on Twitter, Henry appealed directly to Red Sox fans, speaking of the “extraordinary challenges” with which the team was faced this winter and praising the work of chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, general manager Brian O’Halloran and the rest of the team’s baseball operations department.

Henry attempted to connect to the fan base by reminding that everyone in the ownership group was first a fan, thus making them empathetic toward the pain and frustration fans have voiced in the days since the trade. “I grew up a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals,” said Henry. “My favorite player was Stan Musial. My heart would have been broken if Stan the Man had ever been traded — for any reason.”

Sticking with the Musial thread, Henry went on to lament the unfair system that prevented Musial and other players from generations past from being paid at their market rate and present the decision to part with Betts as the type of choice all clubs are forced to make “in this economic system.” To quote Henry at greater length:

“We were faced with a difficult choice. You can talk about dollars. You can talk about metrics and value. But in the end, even though we are consistently among the highest-spending clubs in baseball — with this year being no exception — we have to make hard judgments about competing for the future as well as the present. … In today’s game there is a cost to losing a great player to free agency — one that cannot nearly be made up by the draft pick given. We’ve seen other examples of this recently. … We felt we could not sit on our hands and lose [Betts] next offseason without getting value in return to help us on our path forward. We carefully considered the alternative over the last year and made a decision when this opportunity presented itself to acquire substantial, young talent for the years ahead.”

Werner suggested that the team had other ways to shed salary if that had been the main goal, noting that they could “hypothetically” have traded Price without moving Betts as well (Twitter link via WEEI’s John Tomase). Kennedy at least appeared to acknowledge that the financial element of the trade played a role, noting that the trade wasn’t “exclusively” about resetting the team’s penalty level (Twitter link, with video, via NBC Sports Boston):

“There are clearly certain advantages by resetting and getting under [the luxury tax], but we’ve tried to be clear that this was not exclusively about the CBT and getting under that CBT threshold. There would’ve been other ways to have done that. You don’t trade Mookie Betts to get under the CBT. We traded Mookie Betts and David Price and got back significant value in return.”

Of course, all of this comes fewer than five months after Henry said unequivocally that the Red Sox “need to be under” the $208MM luxury tax threshold for the upcoming 2020 season (link via the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier). “We’ve known for some time now we needed to reset [the penalties by staying under the threshold], as other clubs have done,” Henry said as recently Sept. 27.

Months later, Henry tried to walk that statement back, emphasizing that the team was more focused on “competitiveness” than resetting its luxury penalty in 2020. Red Sox brass will surely argue that the team is indeed better-poised to compete over the next half decade with Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong now in the organization, but there’s no doubt that the Boston club is a demonstrably worse team in 2020 without Betts in right field and without Price in the rotation. Perhaps the Red Sox could chase a Wild Card spot if things break right, but they look to be squarely behind the Yankees and Rays, at the very least, and the competition for the Wild Card spots in the AL will be steeper after active offseasons from the White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers and Angels.

It seems particularly important to point out that Red Sox brass has sought to paint this as an either-or scenario: either trade Betts (and, ahem, $48MM of the $96MM owed to Price) now or risk losing Betts as a free agent this winter. That seems to ignore the possibility of taking aim at a rebound effort in 2020 with Betts and Price in the mix, then trading Betts at the deadline if the division looks out of hand. The return, of course, would be diminished, but the Sox would surely have been able to extract some long-term pieces while endeavoring for a competitive 2020 season.

It would be inaccurate to call the Betts/Price trade a pure salary dump. Henry, Werner, Kennedy and other Red Sox officials have a legitimate point when highlighting the long-term value they received in dealing away that pair of highly paid stars. But it also feels disingenuous not to acknowledge that dropping below the CBT threshold was a key — perhaps even the key — in making this deal. After all, Boston has previously let key players walk as free agents for minimal or no compensation — Craig Kimbrel and Jacoby Ellsbury come to mind — and they traded Jon Lester midseason in 2014 after spring extension talks didn’t come to fruition.

As for where they stand in the 2020 season, Henry didn’t want to concede that the Sox might be taking a step back, instead rhetorically asking reporters (Twitter link via the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato: “Don’t you think this would be a record payroll for a bridge year?” That’s not exactly a declaration that the team is all-in on winning in 2020, but it’s also less than an acknowledgment that this diminished version of the Red Sox is clearly something less than a division contender.

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