Nick Senzel

Nick Senzel’s season is over, as the Reds outfielder has suffered a torn right labrum, The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans reports (Twitter link).  Senzel has missed four of Cincinnati’s last seven games due to the shoulder injury, and only took one plate appearances over the other three games.

Senzel will finish with a .256/.315/.427 slash line and 12 homers over 414 plate appearances, while also stealing 14 bases in 19 chances.  With only an 89 OPS+ and wRC+, it wasn’t quite the big breakout the Reds and their fans were hoping for from one of the game’s top prospects, though it’s worth noting that a sprained ankle suffered late in Spring Training kept Senzel from taking the field until April 23, and delayed his Major League debut until May 3.

Perhaps most troublingly, the 24-year-old is already amassing a rather lengthy injury history just four years into his pro career.  Senzel played just 44 total games (all at Triple-A) in 2018 due to a broken finger and a bout of vertigo, which also cost him time in 2017.  The Reds were going to send Senzel to the Arizona Fall League for more seasoning, only to drop those plans when elbow surgery sidelined him for much of October and November of last year.

Through it all, Senzel also had to take on a brand-new position, as Cincinnati shifted him into center field duty.  Since he’d never played center field prior to 2019, Senzel’s slightly below-average defensive metrics (-2.1 UZR/150 and -1 Defensive Run Saved) are actually more than respectable.  It seems likely that the Reds will continue to use Senzel in center going forward, though now that Scooter Gennett is no longer in the picture, one wonders if the club would consider having Senzel split time between both second base and center field.  Senzel’s original third base position, of course, is blocked by slugger Eugenio Suarez.

It isn’t known if Senzel will require shoulder surgery, though president of baseball operations Dick Williams suggested Thursday that Senzel could be ready for Spring Training either way (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

Selected as the second overall pick in the 2016 draft, Senzel’s hitting ability has been highly regarded since his days at the University of Tennessee.  Senzel hit .312/.388/.508 with 28 home runs over 1028 PA in the minors, including an .853 OPS over 231 PA at the Triple-A level.

5:22PM: Senzel’s sprain doesn’t seem to be particularly serious, as Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that he believes Senzel will be ready to go after the All-Star break.  This sprain is in a different area than the ankle injury that previously took Senzel out of action in Spring Training, Bell noted.

3:13PM: Reds outfielder Nick Senzel exited Sunday’s game prematurely after suffering a right ankle sprain, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The rookie appeared to snag a cleat on the center field fence while he was going after a Carlos Santana fly ball in the first inning. He played out the rest of the first inning and went on to take an at-bat in the bottom of the inning, but did not take the field for the second inning.

The severity of the sprain is not yet clear—ankle sprains can vary in seriousness and recovery timetable, though it’s notable that the injury wasn’t reported as a high ankle sprain, which tend to be more worrisome. At any rate, the timing of the injury is probably a best-case scenario, with the All-Star break affording Senzel and the Reds the next handful of days off.

Senzel, just 24 years old, has emerged as a key cog in the Reds’ lineup after debuting in May. In addition to slotting into the all-important leadoff spot and providing passable offensive output, Senzel has played exclusively in center field, a premium defensive position, in the Majors.

In Sunday’s game, Senzel was replaced in center field by Jesse Winker, who started the game in left field. Moving forward, the Reds should have several options to fill in for Senzel, should he require an IL stint. Phil Ervin has excelled as a reserve and could get starts in left field with Winker moving to center. Otherwise, Derek Dietrich, Jose Peraza, and Josh Vanmeter all have experience in the outfield. Scott Schebler, whom Senzel replaced in center following the former’s abysmal April showing, remains in the minors and is an option in center field.

The Reds are “contemplating” a call-up for top prospect Nick Senzel, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The much-hyped 23-year-old could make it onto the roster as soon as this Friday, per the report.

Senzel might already have forced his way onto the MLB roster, but he had to overcome an injury incurred shortly after being optioned down late in camp. The Cincinnati organization had decided not to carry him on its Opening Day roster owing to some combination of a desire to give Senzel more time to adapt to playing in the outfield and service-time considerations.

The second overall pick of the 2016 draft, Senzel has thrived at the plate ever since joining the profession ranks. He carries a smooth .900 career OPS through just over a thousand trips to the plate at all levels. Expectations are that he’ll be a quality all-around performer right from the jump in the majors.

While the Reds understandably wanted to give Senzel a chance to get comfortable on the grass, where he’s moving after appearing almost exclusively as an infielder, the club needs to do everything possible to keep pace in a brutal NL Central division. It remains to be seen how the roster will be sorted once Senzel is up, but odds are he’ll receive the lion’s share of time in center after appearing there exclusively thus far this season at Triple-A.

Having waited to this point, the Reds are not at risk of allowing Senzel to accrue a full year of MLB service this season. That means the earliest he could qualify for free agency would be after the 2025 season. Should Friday prove to be the day for Senzel’s arrival, he could reach up to 150 service days this year, which would put him on track for eventual Super Two qualification.

Top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, who was recently reassigned to minor league camp, incurred a right ankle sprain while sliding into second base during a minor league game and will be in a walking boot for seven to 14 days, the team announced. As president of baseball operations Dick Williams tells Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Senzel will require multiple weeks to get back up to speed once he’s out of the boot.

Cincinnati assigned Senzel to minor league camp earlier this week — a move that was met with noted protest from agent Joel Wolfe, who called the decision a “simply egregious case of service-time manipulation” in a statement to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

Whether the move was indeed fueled by service time — the Reds can at least plausibly maintain that they’d like Senzel to continue getting reps in center field after shifting there from the infield just this spring — the injury will definitively keep in the minors long enough for the Reds to garner an additional year of club control over the former No. 2 overall draft pick (2015). Assuming Senzel is called up to the Majors later this season and sticks, he’ll be controlled through the 2025 season and, depending on the exact date he’s called up, would be eligible for arbitration after either the 2021 season (if he’s a Super Two player) or the 2022 season.

With Senzel sidelined, Scott Schebler will now get a lengthier look as the primary center fielder with the Reds to begin the 2019 season. He’ll be flanked by Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig and (more occasionally) Matt Kemp in the outfield for at least the first few weeks of the season.