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Nolan Arenado

Rockies, Nolan Arenado Agree To Extension

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Nolan Arenado’s days as the face of the Rockies franchise will continue beyond the 2019 season. Arenado, who had been slated to reach free agency next winter, has instead inked an eight-year contract extension that adds seven years and $234MM in new commitments. The Wasserman client’s new contract reportedly contains an opt-out clause after the third season in 2021, which would allow him to become a free agent in advance of his age-31 campaign, as well as full no-trade protection.

Nolan Arenado | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The newly agreed upon contract will leave in place the one-year, $26MM contract to which Arenado had already agreed for 2019. He takes down $35MM annually over the next five seasons before receiving $32MM and $27MM salaries in the final two years.

Arenado is promised $260MM in total money over an eight-year term. Whether calculated cumulatively ($32.5MM annually) or in reference only to the seven new seasons ($33.4MM), the new contract establishes a new record annual salary for position players, topping Miguel Cabrera’s prior mark of $31MM. In terms of overall average annual salary (AAV), Arenado’s contract trails only Zack Greinke’s $34.4MM mark for the largest in MLB history. It’s the fourth-largest deal ever in terms of total guarantee, trailing only Giancarlo Stanton (13 years, $325MM), Manny Machado (10 years, $300MM) and Alex Rodriguez (10 years, $275MM).

Arenado, 28 in April, has won a Gold Glove in all six of his Major League seasons to date, pairing that hardware with Silver Sluggers in each of the past four seasons. He’s made four consecutive All-Star teams and finished in the top five of National League voting in three straight seasons. Over the past four years, Arenado has led the National League in home runs on three occasions and posted a combined .297/.358/.573 batting line with 158 homers, 159 doubles and 19 triples.

Detractors point to Arenado’s home/road splits in suggesting that his value is inflated by Coors Field, and while it’s surely true that he benefits from that hitter-friendly setting, he’s also slashed a robust .267/.329/.502 on the road over the past four years (with many of those games coming in pitchers’ parks in San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles). And park-neutral metrics like OPS+ (129) and wRC+ (127) feel that even after adjusting for his home park advantages, Arenado’s bat has been 27 to 29 percent better than that of a league-average hitter since 2015. By measure of wRC+, he’s among the game’s 35 best hitters in that four-year span and, when combined with his premier defense at the hot corner, he ranks inside the top 10 in overall wins above replacement among position players, per Fangraphs.

In all, there’s little denying Arenado’s place among the game’s legitimate superstars, and he carries perhaps more value to the Rockies than he would with any other organization given his existing connection with the fan base and within the Denver community. He’s nearly two years older than the current offseason’s two star free-agent bats, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, so it’s not a surprise to see Arenado heading for a slightly shorter-term deal than either of his highly touted peers. But in terms of annual rate, the new contract already tops Machado’s annual salary and could potentially be higher than the AAV to which Harper will eventually agree.

Arenado is the second would-be 2019-20 free agent to take an extension rather than test an open market that has become increasingly slow for top-end talent. (Aaron Hicks signed a seven-year deal with the Yankees yesterday.) Had he hit the open market, it stands to reason that deep-pocketed teams like the Dodgers and particularly the Yankees would’ve made a push to land his services, but the presumptive top free agent on next year’s market will instead take his record-setting payday a year early in order to remain with the only organization he’s ever known.

For the Rockies, the new contract means that Arenado will play out at least the next three seasons alongside Trevor Story, cementing one of the game’s most productive left-side infield tandems for the foreseeable future. That duo’s presence likely means that uber-prospect Brendan Rodgers is ticketed for second base when he eventually does force his way up to the big league level. Should his future outlook stall for any reason, the Rox have plenty of other infield talent on the rise, most notably including Ryan McMahon and Garrett Hampson. Beyond that grouping, veteran Daniel Murphy signed a two-year contract to play first base this winter and will be entrenched in the heart of what should be a formidable batting order.

From a payroll vantage point, the Arenado contract will further push the Rox into franchise-record territory. The $137MM mark at which they opened the 2018 season was already an all-time high for the team, but Arenado’s new deal — depending on how the dollars are distributed — will likely bring Colorado’s Opening Day payroll beyond $155MM (as outlined by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). In terms of luxury taxation, the Rockies are still nearly $40MM shy of having anything to worry about in 2019, and their luxury tax ledger plummets to just north of $129MM next winter, which would place them nearly $80MM shy of incurring any penalties.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported that the Rockies had made a record-AAV offer to Arenado and added he annual breakdown on Twitter. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that the two sides were closing in on an eight-year deal worth more than $255MM with an opt-out (Twitter link). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the exact salary terms, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the agreement to be in place (Twitter links).

NL Notes: Cespedes, deGrom, Arenado, Marlins, Barrett

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Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes provided an update on his efforts to return from surgeries to both heels. As Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News writes, Cespedes expressed confidence that he will be able to make it back to the MLB field, but says it’s unlikely to occur before the middle of the coming season. Cespedes does say that he’s now pain-free, which seems promising, though it remains to be seen how things will progress once his rehab is able to ramp up toward full speed.

  • In other recent Mets news, ace Jacob deGrom discussed his contract situation with reporters including Tim Healey of Newsday. Generally, deGrom reiterated what is already known to be the case: he expects to discuss an extension in the coming weeks but has yet to receive an offer and won’t negotiate past the start of the season. The star righty largely demurred when asked about the oft-floated concept that he might operate under self-imposed workload limitations if he doesn’t have a long-term deal, though he did not rule out such an approach.
  • Speaking of possible blockbuster extensions, Rockies star third baseman Nolan Arenado will not follow deGrom’s lead in placing timing restrictions on his talks with the club, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports. Arenado said he does expect there to be a “silent deadline” once “serious games start,” though generally it sounds as if he’s open to chat just about any time. It certainly seems as if there are plenty of good vibes between player and team, though hammering out an appropriate contract will still come with challenges. Arenado, 27, already agreed to a record-setting $26MM salary for the 2019 campaign, after which he’ll hit the open market.
  • While the Marlins were said to have some interest in Carlos Gonzalez, it seems the organization doesn’t intend to make any further additions at the outset of camp. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports that the club presently intends to give a chance to Peter O’Brien to stake out a claim to time in right field. That means that Brian Anderson is shifting back to third base, leaving the club with a rather unexpected combination of Neil Walker and Martin Prado slated to share the action at first bse (and other areas in the infield). President of baseball operations Michael Hill says the team will still keep an eye on market opportunities, but is “extremely happy” with the “current group of players.”
  • Nationals reliever Aaron Barrett has been through a gauntlet of terrible arm injuries, but he’s still plugging away at a comeback effort. As Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes, the 31-year-old righty is showing some signs of real potential while enjoying an opportunity to pitch in MLB camp, though he has a ways to go before he’ll truly be considered for a big league opportunity. Barrett once featured intriguing swing-and-miss stuff, but has made only twenty low-A appearances over the past three seasons.

Quick Hits: Arenado, Int’l Prospects, Jones, CarGo, Bauer, Storen, Marlins

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Nolan Arenado’s extension talks with the Rockies could create a big impact around baseball, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes in an exploration of both the short-term and long-term effects of an Arenado deal.  Most obviously, an extension would remove arguably the biggest name from the 2019-20 free agent class, which would be a boon to other stars who will be hitting the open market — in particular, Anthony Rendon would see his biggest competition in the third base market disappear.  (Of course, Rendon could also ink his own long-term deal to stay with the Nationals.)  More immediately, an Arenado extension could also set a new benchmark for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, should Arenado and the Rockies come to an agreement before Harper or Machado land contracts this winter.

Some stray items from around baseball as we head into the new week…

  • Ten of the top names available in the 2019-20 international signing market are profiled by Baseball America’s Ben Badler, all of whom have teams already unofficially attached to their services even though the market doesn’t properly open until July 2.  Dominican outfielder Jasson Dominguez and Dominican shortstop Robert Puason are projected for the highest bonuses, each expected to land something around $5MM, with Dominguez linked to the Yankees and Puason connected to the Athletics.
  • While the Indians are still looking for outfield help, the team isn’t currently “aggressively pursuing” Adam Jones or Carlos Gonzalez, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports.  Both veterans were only moderately productive in 2018, both with below-average offensive numbers (as per wRC+) and Jones with some of the worst defensive metrics (minus-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -14.8 UZR/150) of any center fielder in baseball.  That said, both players could still represent an upgrade for Cleveland’s shaky outfield, though it appears the Tribe is checking other options for now.
  • Trevor Bauer’s arbitration hearing took place on Friday, Cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes reports, so details should soon emerge about the outcome.  There was a $2MM gap between Bauer and the Indians in exchanged figures, as Bauer’s camp is looking for a $13MM salary in 2019 and the team is aiming for an $11MM salary.  This will be the second arb hearing in as many years between the two sides, as Bauer defeated the Tribe in the hearing last winter to land his desired $6.525MM salary for the 2018 season.  Like Kluber, Bauer has also been a major figure in trade rumors this offseason.  He has one less year of team control than Kluber and a less-extensive track record, though Bauer is also almost five years younger than his rotation mate.
  • The Royals have interest in veteran righty Drew Storen, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports (Twitter link).  Storen didn’t pitch last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in September 2017.  The 31-year-old was a key figure in the Nationals’ bullpen from 2010-15, though he suffered through a disastrous half-season stint with the Blue Jays in 2016 before righting the ship after a July trade to the Mariners.  Prior to his injury, Storen had a 4.45 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 2.09 K/BB rate over 54 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen in 2017.  Storen won’t carry a heavy price tag as he makes his return from TJ surgery, making him a target for payroll-conscious Kansas City.
  • “Every trade, we’re trying to get back international money,” Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill told reporters, including Barry Jackson and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald.  It’s clear that the international market is a cornerstone of Miami’s rebuilding process, and the club has been successful in landing extra money for their int’l draft pool in recent trades with the Astros, Reds, Nationals, and (as part of the J.T. Realmuto trade package) Phillies.  These extra funds have already paid dividends, as the Marlins signed highly-touted Cuban brothers Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. last October.

Poll: Nolan Arenado’s Future

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Just one year from reaching free agency, Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado may go down among the most coveted players ever to hit the open market – if he does, that is. The chances of Arenado shopping himself around the majors next winter seemingly took a hit Saturday when Rockies owner Dick Monfort expressed optimism about the club’s chances of locking the four-time All-Star up for the long haul.

“I think we’ve gotten it to the point where we’re to the finals. We’re to the crescendo,” Monfort told Thomas Harding of MLB.com in regards to extension talks with Arenado. Monfort added that he’s “comfortable that we can get a number that we can get to” for Arenado, who “wants this to happen as much as we do.”

The Rockies and Arenado have already held at least one meeting this week, during which they hammered out a record-setting, arbitration-avoiding agreement worth $26MM. It seems they also used that summit to discuss a long-term arrangement for Arenado. Regardless, the Rockies will no doubt need to hand Arenado a team-record pact – one that obliterates the $141.5MM guarantee they gave former first baseman Todd Helton in 2001 – to prevent their current franchise player from taking a stab at free agency.

Although they’ve historically been middle of the pack or lower when it comes to spending, the Rockies appear ready to pony up for Arenado. General manager Jeff Bridich said in December that the Rockies could afford a $200MM-plus contract for Arenado, and Monfort noted Saturday that revenue from their TV contract – which runs through 2020 – will jump from $20MM per annum to $40MM. That 100 percent increase, not to mention a new TV deal which the Rockies will begin negotiating in the summer, should only help the team’s chances of retaining Arenado.

For his part, Arenado may simply prefer the comfort of Colorado, where he has posted far better offensive numbers than on the road, to dealing with the free-agent process. The market has become increasingly unkind to players over the past couple offseasons, evidenced in part by the fact that in-their-prime superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado have been unemployed for three months. Harper and Machado are eventually going to rake in huge contracts, but with fewer suitors than expected, the duo may not do as well as predicted when the winter began. And while Harper hasn’t even played his age-26 season yet and Machado won’t turn 27 until July, Arenado will be on the verge of his age-29 campaign if and when he becomes a free agent.

Despite the age difference between him and the Harper-Machado tandem, Arenado’s certainly paying close attention to their free-agent forays. The more money Harper and Machado receive, the better it will be for Arenado, whose superb all-around track record gives him a strong chance of joining the $200MM club in the next 12 months. The main question is whether he’ll get that money from Colorado or another franchise. How do you expect it to play out?

(link for app users)

Will the 2019 season be Arenado's last in Colorado?
Yes 55.33% (9,271 votes)
No. They'll re-sign him 44.67% (7,484 votes)
Total Votes: 16,755

West Notes & Rumors: Rockies, Arenado, CarGo, Astros, Gattis

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Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado may be the best soon-to-be free agent in baseball, but team owner Dick Monfort has expressed optimism that the four-time All-Star won’t even reach the open market next winter, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I think we’ve gotten it to the point where we’re to the finals,” Monfort said of a potential multiyear contract for Arenado. “We’re to the crescendo.” Arenado and the Rockies have already reached one agreement this offseason, having come to terms on a lucrative, arbitration-avoiding contract for 2019 on Thursday, and that may be a sign the two sides are progressing toward a long-term arrangement. Notably, regarding a potential multiyear pact for Arenado, Monfort declared: “I’m comfortable that we can get a number that we can get to. There are a lot of things that have to go through Nolan’s mind, too. But I’m confident that after we met, Nolan wants this to happen as much as we do.”

  • More from Harding, who contradicts a recent report suggesting the Rockies are interested in re-signing free-agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo, 33, was a Rockie from 2009-18, a span in which he was plenty successful, but there’s no indication the club wants him back, Harding hears. Rather, it seems they’re primed to roll with younger options (David Dahl and Raimel Tapia) complementing the veteran tandem of Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond in the grass. Colorado also doesn’t seem to have an opening at first base for Gonzalez, Harding notes, as the team has signed Daniel Murphy and Mark Reynolds (the latter only landed a minor league deal, though).
  • Slugger Evan Gattis is one of many familiar names remaining in free agency as spring training nears, though it’s possible he’ll return to Houston. Gattis said Saturday, via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that “various people from the Astros organization” have stayed in touch with him this offseason. An Astro from 2015-18, Gattis – an experienced catcher – was almost exclusively a designated hitter last year, but the Astros haven’t addressed the DH position since the campaign concluded. They instead may end up starting Tyler White, who was quietly excellent across 244 plate appearances in 2018. The 32-year-old Gattis, meanwhile, only offered league-average offense and replacement-level value over 451 PAs. As a result, whether from the Astros or another team, he doesn’t figure to rake in a particularly expensive payday in the coming weeks.

Rockies Avoid Arbitration With Nolan Arenado

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The Rockies have agreed to terms on a 2019 salary with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, according a team announcement. He’ll receive $26MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), representing a record sum for an arbitration salary.

At the filing deadline for arbitration numbers, indications were that the Rox were confident they’d work something out before going to a hearing. Still, the sides were quite far apart, with Arenado filing for $30MM and the team submitting a $24MM figure — both landing above the prior $23MM record of Josh Donaldson.

As it turns out, Arenado comes in just a shade under the $26.1MM that MLBTR and Matt Swartz projected. As Swartz discussed in breaking down Arenado’s case, there were arguments to swing that figure in either direction, but the model obviously produced quite an accurate prediction.

Arenado is a perennial All-Star, Gold Glove winner, and MVP candidate. Plus, his power numbers are certainly not hurt by the fact that he plays at Coors Field. It’s no surprise, then, that he’d be the one to reach new heights in arbitration earnings.

The more intriguing question is whether the arb talks will set the stage for longer-term discussions between the Rockies and their biggest star. As Rosenthal notes on Twitter, today’s agreement came after a lengthy, in-person discussion — an indication, perhaps, that the sides may be able to work together to hammer out a much larger contract.

As always, you can keep up to date on the arb money by referencing MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.

NL Notes: Arenado, Pirates, Puig, Walker

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Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado chatted with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post in advance of Spring Training, saying his shoulder is at full health and that he’s eagerly anticipating the 2019 season. That’s good news for a Colorado club that’ll need its best player operating at full strength to make a run in the NL West. Of course, the big question as camp nears is whether there’s any possibility of a long-term deal to keep Arenado around for the long haul. At a minimum, he and the team need to bridge a $6MM arbitration gap. Arenado says the contract matters aren’t a distraction for him; rather, his “agent is taking care of all that.” The Rockies star said that there’s no tension or anger stemming from the arbitration talks. However, there’s yet to be any indication that the two sides will be able to see eye to eye on a long-term agreement with Arenado just months from reaching free agency.

 Here’s more from the Senior Circuit…
  • The Pirates announced earlier tonight that they’ve added outfielder JB Shuck on a minor league contract, and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that they’re still looking for outfield additions on minor league pacts. Among the names Pittsburgh is currently eyeing are Cameron Maybin and Brandon Guyer — a pair of veteran right-handed bats who have considerably longer track records than Shuck. Of course, both Maybin and especially Guyer are coming off underwhelming seasons at the plate. Maybin would bring an element of speed to the Pirates’ bench, while Guyer is typically more of an on-base threat and has handled lefties better in his career. Either could pair with Lonnie Chisenhall in right field — Guyer and Chisenhall have previously platooned together in Cleveland — while the Pirates await Gregory Polanco’s return from shoulder surgery. Polanco is expected to be sidelined for the first couple months of the 2019 campaign.
  • New Reds outfielder Yasiel Puig was primarily a right fielder with the Dodgers, but he said Wednesday evening that he’ll be prepared to play center field if his new organization asks him to do so, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Cincinnati has a clear need in center field and has been rumored to be seeking additions both via free agency and on the trade market. Puig won’t hesitate to play either outfield spot and said his primary focus is on being in the lineup on a daily basis and helping a rebuilt Reds roster push for a postseason berth. Puig also discussed the mixed emotions he felt upon learning he’d been traded and his relationship with hitting coach Turner Ward, among other topics.
  • Neil Walker spoke with Marlins reporters about his one-year deal with the team (link via Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald), explaining that this offseason he put an emphasis on being signed before Spring Training began. Walker noted that he had interest from other clubs, but some were playing the waiting game for other free agents (including a few clubs who were first waiting to see what happened with Manny Machado before adding an infielder). Walker candidly called the beginning of his Yankees tenure the “worst month-and-a-half of [his] career” — not in reference to the team but rather referring to his own performance. Walker felt that his lack of a full Spring Training was a significant detriment, and he had no intention of waiting into March to sign once again. Walker hit .247/.346/.442 in the season’s second half after a disastrous start to the 2018 season.

Trade Rumblings: Giants, Longoria, Gray, Yankees, Arenado

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The latest from the trade market…

  • Giants third baseman Evan Longoria lamented the slow-moving free-agent process in an Instagram post Friday, criticizing the advent of new metrics which he believes devalue players. Regardless of whether you agree with Longoria’s stance, one doesn’t need analytics to figure out he disappointed in 2018, his first year with the Giants, as the former Rays superstar slashed a mere .244/.281/.413 in 512 plate appearances. On the heels of that subpar showing, San Francisco’s “gauging” interest in Longoria on the trade front, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports. Although, as Heyman points out, moving Longoria would be a significant challenge for the Giants. Not only is he a 33-year-old coming off a career-worst season, but Longoria has another $72.5MM left on the extension he signed as a Ray in 2012, and his contract also includes a $2MM assignment bonus in the seemingly improbable event the Giants trade him.
  • The Reds are reportedly close to acquiring Yankees right-hander Sonny Gray, but he had been on the Giants’ “radar,” Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. For the most part, though, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is seeking controllable hurlers who come with minor league options, per Schulman, and Gray didn’t fit either category. Gray’s only under wraps for another year, though adding him would have meant a return to the Bay Area – where he largely held his own in Oakland from 2013-17 – as well as a reunion with former A’s executive Zaidi.
  • In a juicier Yankees-related note, GM Brian Cashman has held internal discussions regarding a potential offseason or in-season trade for Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado, according to Andy Martino of SNY.tv. With Arenado entering his last year of control, in which he’ll earn between $24MM and $30MM, his eminently successful Colorado tenure may be nearing an end. However, trade whispers surrounding the soon-to-be 28-year-old are “far fetched,” Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post hears from multiple sources. Of course, if the Yankees want to upgrade at third before the season, 26-year-old free agent Manny Machado represents a younger, arguably better option than Arenado, but it doesn’t seem the Bombers are pursuing the former.

NL West Notes: Arenado, Rockies, Flores, D-backs, Giants

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Rockies GM Jeff Bridich largely declined an opportunity to discuss the state of the team’s contract talks with star third baseman Nolan Arenado, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes. Bridich says the club is content to “keep things under wraps, under our hat for now” as it continues to try to work out a 2019 salary — and, perhaps, a long-term deal — with the club’s top player. The general manager did say that the Rox will not “set any deadlines or ultimatums,” though that comment may relate more to the still-unresolved arbitration case than extension talks. Arenado and the team still need to bridge a $6MM gap to stave off a hearing, as he filed at $30MM against the team’s $24MM submission. It’s still anyone’s guess whether there’ll be any real traction in discussions on a lengthier accord, but it’ll unquestionably cost a pretty penny to get the 27-year-old to forego a chance at testing the open market next winter.

Here’s more out of Denver and the NL West…

  • Also from Harding’s piece, Bridich stated that the Rockies “haven’t been overly aggressive” in the outfield market. Fans hoping for a reunion with Matt Holliday will be disheartened to see that the GM characterized the franchise icon as a tougher fit on the current roster than he was when he was signed late in the 2018 season and enjoyed a brief comeback tour. Presently, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl look like locks for regular outfield work. Ian Desmond, Raimel Tapia and Noel Cuevas will also slot in around the outfield, though Cuevas has options remaining, so it seems conceivable that the Rox could make a move if a palatable bargain presents itself.
  • There are “indications” that the Diamondbacks plan to utilize newly signed Wilmer Flores as their second baseman in 2019, writes Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Doing so would allow them to shift Ketel Marte to the outfield as their new primary center fielder. It’d be an unfamiliar position for Marte, but the move is something that’s been discussed for some time now. (The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan noted as much all the way back in October). As Piecoro notes, the D-backs’ defensive alignment figures to look quite a bit different; Jake Lamb is slated to move across the diamond to first base following the trade of Paul Goldschmidt, with Eduardo Escobar slotting in as the primary third baseman. Nick Ahmed (shortstop), Flores (second base) and Marte (center field) could line up on the middle of the diamond, with David Peralta and Steven Souza Jr. flanking Marte in center.
  • The Giants may use the “opener” strategy at times in 2019 but won’t be among the league’s most aggressive teams with it, writes Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Madison Bumgarner, Derek Holland and Jeff Samardzija will all be treated as traditional starters, though Schulman notes that president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi has recently expressed a desire to manage the workloads of younger arms like Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez “for their future and for ours.” Schulman’s column explores multiple avenues to achieving that goal and features multiple quotes from Zaidi and skipper Bruce Bochy on the pitching staff that Giants fans will surely want to check out in full. Schulman also reiterates that it’s still possible the Giants could explore trades of either Will Smith or Tony Watson as they seek additional rotation and outfield options. Both lefty relievers can become free agents next offseason.

Unresolved 2019 Arbitration Cases

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Yesterday’s arbitration deadline wasn’t a firm date for agreeing to terms. Rather, it was the end of the period to negotiate before submitting numbers for possible hearings. Negotiations can continue thereafter, but teams and players will now have to defend their submission numbers if they can’t bridge the gap before a hearing. Baseball arb panels simply pick one side’s number; that aspect of the process is designed to force the parties to the bargaining table.

[RELATED: MLBTR Arbitration Projections; MLBTR Arbitration Tracker]

Here’s what we know thus far about the still-unresolved cases:

Today’s Updates

  • The Yankees have yet to come to a deal with ace starter Luis Severino, and they may be heading to arbitration. The Yanks have submitted their bid at $4.4MM, while Severino has asked for $5.25MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Tommy Pham and the Rays have submitted their numbers for arbitration, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (via Twitter). Pham filed at $4.1MM while the Rays submitted a bid of $3.5MM. Pham has had no problem expressing his honest opinion about the Rays fanbase of late, and it will be interesting to see if he gets an equal portion of honest feedback in return in his arbitration hearing.
  • The Oakland A’s and their closer Blake Treinen have both submitted their numbers, with the team coming in at $5.6MM while Treinen files for $6.4MM, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). It’s not a shock to see these sides far apart, given Treinen’s remarkable 2018 and how far above his usual standard of production last season’s numbers fell.
  • Washington Nationals filed at $1.725MM for newcomer Kyle Barraclough, who counters at $2MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). The former Marlin was acquired in an uncommonly early offseason trade that sent international bonus pool money the Marlins’ way.
  • The Diamondbacks have only one player they did not reach an agreement with, lefty reliever T.J. McFarland. The Dbacks submitted a bid of $1.275MM, while McFarland is asking for $1.675MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Alex Wood submitted $9.65MM for his 2019 salary, while his new club the Cincinnati Reds countered at $8.7MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Wood will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • The Detroit Tigers reached agreements with all of their arbitration eligible players except for right-handed starter Michael Fulmer. Fulmer comes in at $3.4MM with the team countering at $2.8MM, the difference being 600K, per Nightengale (via Twitter).
  • Ryan Tepera has filed for $1.8MM while the Blue Jays submitted their bid at $1.525MM, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Tepera has been a reliable bullpen arm for the Jays through his first four seasons. He has two more seasons of arbitration remaining, set to reach free agency in advance of the 2022 season.
  • Reserve outfielder Michael A. Taylor and the Washington Nationals are a 250K apart, per Nightengale (via Twitter). Seems like a rather small sum to quibble over in the grand scheme of things, but every cent counts right now in Washington, it seems. Taylor submitted a bid of $3.5MM, with the Nats countering at $3.25MM.

Earlier Updates

  • Rockies star Nolan Arenado is headed for a record arb salary, unsurprisingly. The question is by how much. He has filed at a whopping $30MM, with the club countering at $24MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Even the lower figure would represent a record. It doesn’t seem as if the sides will go to a high-stakes hearing on this one; Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets that the odds are good they’ll find common ground. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Arenado to earn $26.1MM, though he also explained that it’s not hard to see that number swaying in either direction based upon a close examination of the (few relevant) comps.
  • Despite a monster 2018 season, Phillies righty Aaron Nola isn’t seeking to set a record first-year arb starter salary. (That belongs to Dallas Keuchel, at $7.25MM, when he was coming off of a Cy Young season.) Nola did file at a hefty $6.75MM, per Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (via Twitter), while the club entered just $4.5MM. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out. The Keuchel salary represented a sea change for young starters, but few others have tested the process since. MLBTR’s projection system spit out a $6.6MM figure for Nola.
  • Righty Gerrit Cole filed at $13.5MM, while the Astros countered at $11.425MM, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (Twitter link). Teammates Carlos Correa and Chris Devenski have also yet to agree to terms. MLBTR projected Cole to earn $13.1MM in his final arb season, Correa to check in at $5.1MM in his first arb year, and Devenski to take home $1.4MM his first time through the process.
  • Indians righty Trevor Bauer is seeking a $13MM payday, while the club will argue instead for $11MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter). The Cleveland org has long utilized a file-and-trial approach on a case-by-case basis. It’s not totally clear whether that’ll be the approach here, but as Hoynes notes, the sides did go to a hearing already last year. (Bauer won.) MLBTR projected a $11.6MM payday; Swartz also explained why he thought the model was likely in the right ballpark for Bauer in a detailed post.
  • Passan provides a list of other players who have yet to agree to terms and who could therefore still end up before a panel. There are fifteen in total, including those already noted above as well as Kyle Barraclough and Michael Taylor (Nationals), Michael Fulmer (Tigers), T.J. McFarland (Diamondbacks), Tommy Pham (Rays), Luis Severino (Yankees), Ryan Tepera (Blue Jays), Blake Treinen (Athletics), and Alex Wood (Reds).
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