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Pete Alonso

Latest On Blue Jays, Pete Alonso

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5:30pm: Tim Healey of Newsday provides a similar report to Martino, saying that the two sides are deep in talks. However, Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet report that there’s no gaining momentum for the Jays to sign Alonso or Scherzer.

3:05pm: The Blue Jays have been known for a while to have interest in free agent first baseman Pete Alonso. Andy Martino of SNY reports today that talks between the two sides are “advancing,” though he cautions that nothing is done yet and it can’t be certain that a deal will be completed.

Though nothing is done yet, it would be quite an interesting offseason pivot for the Jays if they could get the deal over the line. For the first few months of the winter, the club was defined by coming up just short in their pursuits of free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, Corbin Burnes and Roki Sasaki. When combined with last winter’s near miss on Shohei Ohtani and a disappointing 2024 season, frustration was high among the fanbase.

The volume of the murmuring decreased somewhat in recent days as the Jays signed outfield Anthony Santander to provide the lineup with a power boost. But even after that deal, it didn’t seem as though the Jays were done. They reportedly still have payroll space and have been recently connected to players like Alonso, Jurickson Profar and Max Scherzer.

If Alonso is ultimately brought north of the border alongside Santander, the two would make for fairly similar additions. Both players have power as their clear best trait, with their other contributions a bit more muted.

Alonso has clubs 226 home runs over the past six seasons, which puts him second only to Aaron Judge for that span. But despite that huge power, he has lingered unsigned in free agency as spring training is just over the horizon.

That is perhaps due to the other parts of his profile. His 9.9% career walk rate is a bit above average but not by much. He doesn’t have huge speed on the basepaths. The reviews on his defense have been mixed, with Alonso having earned +2 Defensive Runs Saved in his career but getting a grade of -24 from Outs Above Average. His offense has also been relatively lower of late. He slashed .261/.349/.535 through 2022 for a wRC+ of 137, but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+ over the past two years.

That’s still really strong production but it’s possible that it contributed to a gap between what Alonso and his reps were expecting from free agency and what clubs were willing to offer. The power-only right-handed slugger is a profile that hasn’t been paid well in a while and Alonso’s recent dip may not have helped him.

Many expected him and the Mets to reunite but the club didn’t seem too keen on that. Even as Alonso and his reps have pivoted to considering short-term deals recently, the Mets apparently capped their offer in the range of $68-70MM over three years. That amounts to something close to $23MM annually, a lower average annual value than Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were able to get even though they remained unsigned into February/March of last year.

It’s unclear what kind of terms Alonso and Jays are discussing, but he would be a sensible fit for them, despite his flaws. The Jays had some strengths last year but power was a clear weakness. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was the only guy on the club to get to the 20-homer plateau. The team-wide tally of 156 long balls was 26th out of the 30 clubs in the league, ahead of only the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

Their walk rate, however, trailed only six teams. Their defense was considered quite strong, with DRS having them tops in the majors and OAA considering them the fourth-best. Therefore, adding a player who mostly provides power was a sensible target coming into the offseason.

They already made one such addition with Santander. Like Alonso, his power is a greater strength than his defense, speed or on-base ability. But the Jays are seemingly willing to go after the weakest part of their 2024 club and attack it.

Fitting everyone into the lineup would be a bit of a challenge. The Jays already have a first baseman in Guerrero. With Alonso on the club, the two would presumably share first base and the designated hitter spot somewhat regularly. Guerrero has played a bit of third base in his career but only 14 games in the past five seasons. Most of those came last year as the club was playing out the string on a lost season.

Without Alonso on the club, corner outfielders Santander and George Springer make sense as the top candidates to receive lengthy stints in the DH spot. As mentioned, Santander is not a great fielder. Springer has been a good defender in his career but is now 35 years old and he’s naturally sliding a bit in that department. Adding Alonso would limit the ability of the Jays to use Springer or Santander in the DH spot, unless they are willing to put Guerrero at third more often than expected. As of now, Ernie Clement profiles as the club’s best option at the hot corner. Since he’s more of a glove-first guy capable of playing other positions, it’s possible he could be deployed in more of a utility role. Speculatively speaking, it’s possible the Jays could start some games with Guerrero and Alonso at the corners, with Clement subbing in at third late in the game if the club is ahead and wants to prioritize defense. At that point, either Guerrero or Alonso could head to the bench, with the other at first.

It’s an interesting gambit and time will tell if the two sides get anything done. The Jays apparently still have some money to spend and have some options available. Whether that’s Alonso, Profar, Scherzer, someone else or some combination, it appears they are still busy in trying to salvage the offseason after a few misses earlier on.

Signing Alonso would also require the club to forfeit a draft pick and $500K of international bonus pool space because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. The Jays already gave up pool space to sign Santander but added $2MM in the ill-fated Myles Straw deal when they were courting Sasaki, so they probably aren’t especially worried about that part. Since they already surrendered their second-best pick in the upcoming draft to get Santander, signing Alonso would mean also forfeiting their third-highest pick. The Mets would receive a compensation pick for Alonso leaving, but as a club that paid the competitive balance tax last year, that pick wouldn’t come until after the fourth round.

Pete Alonso Declined Three-Year Offer From Mets

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It appears the Pete Alonso era in Queens is coming to an end. Andy Martino of SNY reported this afternoon that the Mets expect Alonso to sign elsewhere and have begun to turn their attention to other pursuits.

After initially facing a gap on contract length, the sides recently turned their attention to a shorter-term arrangement. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote this afternoon that Alonso and his representatives at the Boras Corporation pitched the Mets a three-year deal with a high annual salary and one or more opt-out chances. Sammon reports that the team countered with a three-year proposal at a lesser salary which Alonso declined.

Joel Sherman and Dan Martin of The New York Post provide some specifics, reporting that the team’s offer came with an overall guarantee in the $68-70MM range and included opt-outs. Sammon writes that the Mets were open to pushing that guarantee slightly higher, though it seems there was still a significant enough gap compared to Alonso’s asking price (which is not known) for the team to turn its attention elsewhere.

The Mets’ proposal was clearly not to Alonso’s liking, which isn’t all that surprising. It’s less than the frontloaded $80MM guarantee which Cody Bellinger landed when he returned to the Cubs on an opt-out laden deal last winter. It now seems as if Alonso will be moving on, though the Mets haven’t pushed all their chips in to an alternative target yet. New York agreed to bring back Jesse Winker on a $7.5MM deal. He’ll slot in at designated hitter and/or as a left-handed bench bat. If Alonso indeed walks, New York will probably move Mark Vientos to first base and allow Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña battle for reps at third base.

The Post’s Jon Heyman writes that the Mets are now “heavily focused” on adding to the bullpen. Sammon tied them to top free agent reliever Tanner Scott last week. Adding a high-leverage arm in front of star closer Edwin Díaz makes sense. A left-hander would be an obvious fit considering Danny Young is the only southpaw in the bullpen at the moment. Scott is far more than a situational matchup option, but he has certainly shown himself capable of attacking the best left-handed hitters in the sport.

The Athletic reported this morning that the Blue Jays were among the teams still engaged with Alonso’s camp. It’s not clear whether those discussions also involve a short-term deal. Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM first reported last week that Alonso’s camp was offering the three-year term with opt-outs to the Mets alone in an effort to stay in Queens. He may still be seeking a longer-term contract from other teams, though it’s not clear whether that kind of proposal will be on the table anywhere.

Mets Reportedly Expect Pete Alonso To Sign Elsewhere

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The Mets and Pete Alonso have been in a staredown for a while but it seems the club is blinking. Andy Martino of SNY reports that they now expect him to sign elsewhere, with today’s agreement with Jesse Winker part of a plan to spread money around to various alternatives. Earlier today, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Alonso’s market was heating up, with the Blue Jays and Mets involved, as well as a third unidentified team.

Alonso and the Mets have clearly had mutual interest in reaching a new deal for a long time, but without the ability to agree on a price point. The club reportedly offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in the summer of 2023, but a deal didn’t get done. Since then, there have been changes on both sides of the negotiations. The Mets hired David Stearns to replace Billy Eppler atop their baseball operations department in September of 2023, with Alonso then hiring Scott Boras the following month.

During the 2024 season, the sides generally expressed admiration for each other but never seemed to make much effort to get an extension done. Alonso turned down a qualifying offer and became a free agent. Though he was connected to various teams in recent months, he never seemed to get a deal to his liking. Alonso’s camp reportedly pivoted to a short-term deal, pitching the Mets a three-year pact with opt-outs. The Mets seemed to be somewhat amenable to this framework but a gap on the money still prevented a deal from coming together.

In recent weeks, the Mets have also been connected to players like Winker, Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tanner Scott, Luis Arráez and Tim Hill. They also reportedly offered Teoscar Hernández a two-year deal before he returned to the Dodgers on a three-year pact.

Martino’s report compares the Mets’ current plans to those of the Yankees after missing out on Juan Soto, spreading money around to various players as opposed to one big splash. After Soto went to the Mets, the Yankees gave out deals to Max Fried and Paul Goldschmidt, as well as trading for Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They could have done some of those moves in conjunction with Soto but perhaps were more aggressive in those areas since they hadn’t tied up their resources with the one mega deal.

The Winker signing alone doesn’t stop the Mets from bringing back Alonso, as the two coexisted on the roster in 2024, with Alonso the regular at first as Winker spent time in the outfield corners and designated hitter slot. But there has been some reporting that the club wants to use some internal options at the corners. Mark Vientos was the regular third baseman last year and had a breakout year at the plate, but with subpar defensive metrics. He could perhaps move over to first, while the Mets use Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña to cover third base.

Perhaps things will change in the coming days but it now seems possible that the Mets are indeed prepared to walk away from Alonso. The earlier reporting from The Athletic indicated the Mets were in talks with various players and didn’t want the stalled Alonso negotiations to get in their way. While Winker doesn’t strictly block the path for Alonso to come back to Queens, it does seem to signal that the Mets are prepared to move on.

If it does indeed come to pass, it will be a surprisingly lackluster end to the Mets-Alonso relationship. He was a homegrown star with some New York roots and come up through the club’s system after being selected in the second round of the 2016 draft. He debuted with a big splash in 2019, hitting 53 home runs and also winning the home run derby. That campaign is now widely viewed as the juiced ball season, but Alonso continued to be a big homer threat in subsequent years.

Alonso now has 226 home runs over the past six seasons, second only to Aaron Judge in that time. He won another derby title in 2021 and was a staple of the club over their recent history, not having played less than 152 games in any full season.

During that time, the Mets went from a punchline to a powerhouse. While they were previously known for having middling budgets and results, Steve Cohen purchased the club ahead of the 2021 season and made them one of the top spenders in the league. They have made the playoffs in two of the past three years, with Alonso playing the hero last year. He hit four home runs in 13 playoff games just a few months ago, including the series-flipping homer off Williams to get the Mets past the Brewers and out of the Wild Card round.

But his star power in the media and general public seemed to outpace his popularity in today’s analytically-inclined front offices. While the home run power has been real, Alonso’s other contributions have been muted. His walk rates have been decent but not outstanding, he’s not a burner on the basepaths and his defense hasn’t been well regarded. His overall offense has also declined. While he hit .261/.349/.535 for a 137 wRC+ through 2022, he slashed just .229/.324/.480 for a 121 wRC+. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 2.1 wins above replacement last year, a solid but not elite number. There were 119 position players who were at 2.2 fWAR or higher last year.

It therefore seemed possible from the start of the offseason that Alonso would find his offers lacking in free agency. As part of MLBTR’s annual Top 50 list, we considered predicting Alonso for a deal along the lines of the three years and $80MM that Bellinger got from the Cubs last year after he lingered in free agency into February. We backed down from that prediction, putting 5/$125MM on Alonso, but it now appears he may well end up getting something like that deal. It just might be somewhere other than Queens.

It’s a bit of a surprising pivot, as the Mets have not been shy about spending since Cohen bought the team. While Stearns was in Milwaukee, he never spent a lot of money on first basemen, but he never had the resources he now has. Despite the deeper bank account, it still seems as though Stearns would prefer to invest in ways he considers wise. The club also didn’t play at the top of the starting pitching market, not signing guys like Fried or Corbin Burnes, instead taking risks on guys like Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Montas is coming off a down year while Holmes will be trying to pivot from the bullpen to the rotation.

All this will seemingly leave Alonso looking elsewhere for his next gig, with Toronto one possibility. The Jays already have a first baseman in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but it doesn’t appear as though the plan would be to trade him. Per the reporting from The Athletic, the plan would be for Guerrero and Alonso to share first base and DH, with Guerrero occasionally crossing the diamond to play third base. Though the article from The Athletic says the Jays would “prefer” to hang onto Guerrero, Rosenthal made an appearance on Foul Territory and more emphatically shot down the possibility of Guerrero being traded.

Though the fit would be a bit awkward, the Jays could use the power. Toronto’s offense was close to league average last year, but a lot of that was thanks to having a walk rate that was bested by only six other teams. In the home run department, they were actually one the worst clubs, ahead of just the Marlins, Rays, Nationals and White Sox.

They don’t really have a strict designated hitter, which perhaps provides a path for Alonso and Guerrero to share a lineup. Justin Turner was their primary DH for the first half of last year but he was traded to the Mariners at the deadline. It would make it a bit harder for the club to rest someone like George Springer, but it seems the Jays have some openness to it regardless. Guerrero taking the hot corner could allow greater flexibility, though he only has 104 innings there over the past five seasons. Most of that came late last year as the Jays were playing out the string on a lost season. It’s unclear how much willingness they have to put Guerrero there in meaningful games.

Financially, it seems the club still has powder dry. They reportedly had a strong offer on the table for Burnes as of a few weeks ago, before he signed with the Diamondbacks. Since then, they signed Jeff Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal, but that is surely well shy of what they were willing to pay Burnes.

It’s theoretically possible that signing Alonso could give the Jays some cover for the event they can’t sign Guerrero, an impending free agent, to an extension. But it seems highly likely that Alonso will be securing a deal with the ability to opt out after 2025, meaning he would only stick around for 2026 if he has a down year. They would likely prefer to have Guerrero locked up long term, since he’s significantly younger than Alonso, while seeing Pete walk away earlier.

There are surely other clubs in the mix as well. Alonso has been connected to the Giants, Red Sox and Angels in recent weeks. Teams like the Tigers, Athletics and Mariners make sense as speculative fits. Since Alonso rejected a QO, the Mets will receive a draft pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. The penalty for the signing club will depend on their revenue-sharing status and whether they paid the competitive balance tax last year. Perhaps we will have clarity soon as the staring contest with the Mets appears to be ending.

Poll: Will Pete Alonso Return To The Mets?

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The first base market started to move rapidly late in 2024, as players like Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, and Carlos Santana came off the trade and free agent markets. That movement did not work its way up to the top of the market at the time, but since the New Year started, buzz surrounding Pete Alonso’s free agency has grown louder. Alonso’s camp reportedly approached the Mets to pitch a three-year deal with opt-outs last week. The two parties have since discussed that structure but still face a gap in numbers. Notably, the Mets are said to be pressing for a definitive conclusion sooner than later.

That Alonso’s market has seemingly dropped into the short-term, high annual salary range is notable but not necessarily a shock, given how frequently that approach has been taken by stars who linger on the market in recent years. Shortstop Carlos Correa’s first deal with the Twins is perhaps the most notable example, but it’s become more widespread in the years since that deal with Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman signing deals of that nature last offseason alone. This winter, free agents like Jack Flaherty and Anthony Santander have reportedly joined Alonso in beginning to consider short-term offers.

For a Mets club that has tended to avoid making long-term commitments to players already in their 30s (particularly since hiring David Stearns as president of baseball operations), the idea of getting Alonso back in the fold on a short-term deal has to be appealing. It would hardly be a surprise if Alonso was hoping to land a deal that guarantees him $30MM or more annually, or at least is front-loaded in such a way that he could opt out of the deal next winter and walk away with $30MM or more — similar to Bellinger’s three-year deal with the Cubs. The Mets are surely hoping to minimize risk on their end to avoid a situation where Alonso opts in and becomes an anchor on the roster.

While the Mets have long been considered the favorite and most logical landing spot, they aren’t the only club with interest in Alonso. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and Giants have all been connected to Alonso since the new year began. Most of that quartet already has a set first baseman, but none sported a top-ten offense in MLB last year and each of the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays were below-average in terms of home run power. That makes it easy to envision a slugger of Alonso’s caliber making a difference for any of those clubs, even in the event that he doesn’t return to the more well-rounded form he flashed in 2022 as a four-WAR player with a .352 on-base percentage.

The Mets, meanwhile, could theoretically consider a number of alternatives. In particular, Santander has been connected to the Mets as a potential backup. A few budget options seem to be under consideration as well, including a reunion with Jesse Winker. Should the Mets pivot towards adding in the outfield, they could end up using a mix of internal options at the infield corners. Mark Vientos can move to first base, while Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuna could vie for time at the hot corner. Alex Bregman is still out there in free agency, and Nolan Arenado is on the trade market. But if the Mets can’t find three-year terms with Alonso that are to their liking, it’d be a surprise if they signed another 30-year-old infielder who’s seeking a long-term deal (Bregman) or traded for a 34-year-old infielder who’s still owed $74MM (Arenado).

Given the imperfect fit for Alonso with many of his other suitors and the Mets’ lack of obvious proven alternatives, the most straightforward way for both sides to get what they want is to close the gap in negotiations and work out a deal. That’s easier said than done, of course, and until a deal is in place, another club like the Giants or Blue Jays could swoop in with a compelling short-term offer of its own. If Alonso remains unsigned into spring training, an injury to a contending club’s first baseman could open further possibilities.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between the two sides going forward?

Latest On Mets, Pete Alonso

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7:28PM: Alonso and the Mets “are said to be making progress on at least the structure of a proposed deal that’s expected to be for three years and include at least one opt out,” according to Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman.  “While the sides appear amenable to that short-term structure,” Sherman and Heyman write, there’s still “a gap between offer and counteroffer,” with specific figures not mentioned.

5:15PM: The Mets and Pete Alonso have seemingly been in a staredown for quite a while and it’s still unclear who will blink first. Reporting from last week indicated that Alonso’s camp had pitched a short-term deal with opt-outs to the Mets but Alonso remains unsigned. Reports from both Andy Martino of SNY and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggest a pivot point is coming where the Mets may move on to plans that don’t involve Alonso having a place on the 2025 team.

It has long seemed possible that Alonso’s free agency could go this way. Last winter, the “Boras Four” lingered in free agency well into the new year and eventually settled for contracts below expectations. Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery all signed deals that only were guaranteed for two or three years, though with each player having the chance to opt-out after each season. There were reasons to expect Alonso might follow them down this road.

Alonso reportedly turned down an extension offer of seven years and $158MM back in the summer of 2023. He still had one arbitration season to go at that point, ultimately making $20.5MM in 2024, so he effectively turned down $137.5MM for six free agent years. There had been reports that Alonso was looking at the contracts of Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson at targets. Freeman signed for $162MM over six years, though with deferrals. Olson signed an eight-year, $168MM extension when he was still two years away from free agency.

But Alonso isn’t as well-rounded of a player as those two. While his power is elite, his plate discipline and defense are both below Freeman and Olson. He’s also coming off a couple of relative down years. He had a career batting line of .261/.349/.535 and a 137 wRC+ through the 2022 season but then hit .229/.324/.480 for a 122 wRC+ over the two most recent campaigns. That’s still strong production but it will naturally concern a club thinking about making a long-term investment.

Alonso is still unsigned with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training in less than a month. There is apparent willingness to pivot to a short-term deal but a deal still hasn’t come together. There is still more time, as Bellinger’s agreement came together in late February last year, Chapman’s in early March. However, today’s reports both point to the Mets starting to consider other options.

The Mets have had a front office shakeup since offering that extension to Alonso. Billy Eppler was the general manager at that time but David Stearns is now running the club’s baseball operations department. Stearns never really dedicated a lot of resources to first base, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. A three-year, $16MM deal for Eric Thames was his biggest investment in the position for the Brewers. Milwaukee non-tendered Chris Carter after he hit 41 home runs in 2016, rather than pay him a projected $8.1MM salary.

Stearns is working with more resources now that he’s with the Mets but has continued to be measured in how he uses those resources, apart from the Juan Soto deal. Instead of signing top free agent starting pitchers, he has taken bounceback fliers on guys like Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning. He also signed Clay Holmes, hoping to get starting pitcher value for reliever prices.

The Mets do have some internal options for corner infield work. Mark Vientos had a great season in 2024, mostly playing third base, but his defense didn’t receive strong grades. It’s been suggested that he could be moved over to first base, with the hot corner then being open for a competition between guys like Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña and Ronny Mauricio. There’s some uncertainty in going down that road and there would be some sense in adding Alonso back into the mix, but it seems the Mets and Alonso’s camp can’t agree on a fair price.

Teams will naturally be attracted to a short-term deal as it lowers the chances of them being saddled with a player’s decline years, but the player usually looks to get a higher average annual value as a compromise. Bellinger’s deal guaranteed him $80MM but in frontloaded fashion, allowing him to opt out after one year with $30MM in his pocket or after two years with $60MM in the bank. Alonso is perhaps looking for something similar, which the Mets may not be keen on.

The Mets are set to be a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and RosterResource projects their CBT number at $276MM next year. Signing Alonso to something in the range of $25-30MM annually would push that close to the fourth and final tier of the tax, which is $301MM this year. The Mets would pay a 95% tax on spending from tier three to tier four, then a 110% tax for spending over the top line. As such, even employing Alonso for one year and then having him opt out would cost them something like $60MM. If he has a disappointing season and doesn’t opt out, as happened with Bellinger, they would be stuck with the deal for another year or two.

The Mets also stand to receive draft pick compensation if Alonso signs elsewhere. As a tax payor, their bonus pick wouldn’t be until after the fourth round. That’s not massively important in baseball terms but it’s not nothing and it would go away if they re-sign Alonso.

It’s a tricky calculation for the Mets to make with a franchise favorite, but it seems they are willing to play hard ball and move on to other options soon. Martino does mention that the Mets checked in with the Blue Jays about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. but also downplays the talks significantly, characterizing the fit as “fantasy baseball.” That aligns with public comments from Toronto’s general manager Ross Atkins, who has often downplayed the likelihood of the Jays trading Guerrero or Bo Bichette.

Martino mentions a reunion with Jesse Winker or signing Anthony Santander as other possible pivots, though he adds that the latter is less likely to come to fruition. For Alonso, if he’s not destined to go back to Queens, he will have to do his own pivot. MLBTR recently looked at some of the clubs that could potentially sign him to a short-term deal, with the Giants, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics and Tigers some of the options.

What Could Pete Alonso’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.

Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.

For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.

Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.

Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.

That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.

ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.

Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...

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Anthony Santander, Jack Flaherty Reportedly Open To Short-Term Offers

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As the offseason’s free agent market has developed and with Spring Training looming just over the horizon next month, a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.

Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal. Sammon also confirmed previous reports that indicated the camp of first baseman Pete Alonso had made an three-year offer to the Mets that includes multiple opt-outs, though it remains unclear if he’s open to similar short-term offers from other clubs at this point.

It’s a notable update to the market of all three players. Both Santander and Flaherty were reportedly looking for five-year deals that could have reached into the range of nine figures. Santander in particular reportedly has a contract offer on the table from the Blue Jays as of last week, though given the fact that he’s now open to exploring short-term deals it seems as though that offer may not have been one the switch-hitter was interested in accepting. It’s easy to imagine the possibility of getting a high-end free agent on a short-term deal opens up the market for these players, or perhaps convincing teams already connected to the players to become more serious about their pursuits.

As one example, Flaherty has previously been connected to the Cubs but there’s been some suggestion that Chicago (who signed Bellinger to a short-term, opt-out heavy deal just last winter) has reservations regarding the right-hander’s asking price. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been connected to both Flaherty and Santander but have remained opportunistic in free agency, locking down one-year deals with Gleyber Torres and Alex Cobb to improve their roster without making long-term commitments. Either of these clubs could theoretically be enticed to step up their efforts if their target is now open to considering a short-term deal.

While shorter-term deals can be attractive to teams as a way to mitigate risk associated with a particular free agent, they can still come with complications. While the deals Snell and Chapman signed in San Francisco last winter were clear successes for both sides, with Snell dominating down the stretch in a Giants uniform before signing a lucrative deal in L.A. back in November while Chapman had a resurgent season and extended with the club long-term, not all deals of this variety work out quite so well. Montgomery’s deal with Arizona quickly turned out to be a disaster as the left-hander endured the worst season of his career, got demoted to the bullpen, and has been shopped as a potential salary dump by the Diamondbacks this winter. Bellinger, meanwhile, posted a solid but unspectacular season in Chicago that led the Cubs to dump his salary in a trade with the Yankees last month in order to create an opening in the lineup for the addition of a more impactful bat than Kyle Tucker.

Even with those potential downsides, it’s easy to see why clubs could prefer a short-term deal rather than one that puts them on the hook for a player’s decline phase. After all, the Cubs were still able to shed the vast majority of the money owed to Bellinger in trade even after a pedestrian 2024 season, and the Diamondbacks could end up doing the same even after Montgomery’s disastrous campaign. Swinging those deals would be far more difficult if either player were on lengthy deals with larger overall guarantees, even if the AAV of those deals would likely be lower.

For the players, this sort of approach comes with both pros and cons. There is of course risk involved that injury or poor performance leads to them hitting the market with less value than they had in their initial trip through free agency. In the case of Flaherty, who is currently unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer, taking a short-term deal comes with a bit of extra risk given that even a wildly successful season could end up not leading to the sort of lucrative long-term deal he’s hoping for given the fact that he could be tagged with a QO in a future offseason. For a player already tagged with a QO like Santander, however, signing a short-term deal and hitting free agency after another strong season could provide an even larger boost to his value by allowing him to re-enter free agency unencumbered in the future.

While a willingness to consider short-term, high-AAV offers should open the market up for these players to an extent, that shouldn’t be taken to mean that a massive shakeup is guaranteed. Those high annual salaries figure to be an obstacle for clubs in or on the cusp of luxury tax territory as well as those dealing with budget crunches. As one example, Rosenthal and Sammon suggest that Alonso could look to seek a deal that offers an average annual value of $31.1MM in order to land the AAV record for first basemen. While that appears to be speculative on the part of the pair and they go on to suggest deferred money that would lower the net present value to be involved, even an AAV in the $25MM to $30MM range is the sort of figure that the majority of small-market clubs and even big spenders deep into luxury tax territory could be even less willing to stomach than a somewhat longer-term deal with a lower annual salary.

Latest On Pete Alonso

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Pete Alonso’s market hasn’t come together the way he and agent Scott Boras had hoped just yet, though there’s still more than a month until pitchers and catchers report to spring training, leaving ample time for a deal to come together and still afford Alonso a normal spring training. One element that’s likely impacted things, as with any high-profile free agent, is trepidation from teams in terms of asking price. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com has previously suggested that the Boras Corporation has used contracts like Prince Fielder (nine years, $214MM) as a point of comparison in negotiations.

Boras firmly pushed back on that this morning in comments to SNY’s Andy Martino. Boras tells Martino that “10-year-old contract” like Fielder’s simply “is not relevant to the current Alonso negotiations.” (Fielder’s contract is actually 13 years old, though that only further hammers home the point Boras is making.)

Even with that pushback, it’s likely that years have been the holdup in talks regarding Alonso. The Mets famously offered him a seven-year, $158MM extension in 2023. That included Alonso’s final arbitration season (2024), wherein he was paid $20.5MM. He’d need to top $137.5MM over the next six seasons in order to come out ahead in that bet on himself.

Of course, that doesn’t all need to come in the form of one contract. We’ve seen plenty of free agents in the past find more tepid interest than anticipated in free agency, take an opt-out laden deal, and come out ahead over the course of multiple contracts. It’s not the ideal course of action for most players, but it can certainly work to the player’s benefit.

More specifically, that course of action has been common for both high-end and mid-level Boras clients. It doesn’t always work — just ask Jordan Montgomery — but there are plenty of success stories.

Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Carlos Rodon and Carlos Correa are all recent examples. Chapman took a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs in San Francisco and mashed his way into a $151MM extension. He’ll ultimately earn $169MM over a seven-year term. Snell took two years and $62MM from the Giants last winter after reportedly rejecting a Yankees offer in the $150MM range. (He’s since contended the number was well shy of that.) He opted out and landed $182MM from the Dodgers, bringing his six-year earnings to $214MM (albeit with nearly a third of it deferred). Rodon opted out of the second season of his own two-year, $44MM deal with the Giants and cashed in with $162MM in the Bronx. Correa signed a three-year, $105.3MM deal in Minnesota, opted out and went through a strange free agent odyssey that still resulted in an additional $200MM guaranteed from Minnesota, even after a pair of failed physicals in San Francisco and Queens.

It’s not yet clear whether Alonso will ultimately go that route, but former Mets GM Jim Duquette (2003-04), now with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, reports that Boras and Alonso have pitched an opt-out laden three-year deal to the Mets — and the Mets alone. Even with that reported offer from the player’s camp, Duquette suggests no deal is close for now.

A three-year deal for the Mets — something in the Cody Bellinger mold — would make plenty of sense for both parties. New York would retain the NL home run leader dating back to Alonso’s big league debut and do so without needing to commit long-term to a 30-year-old first baseman who offers minimal defensive/baserunning value. Pairing Alonso and Juan Soto in the heart of the Mets’ order would be formidable.

For Alonso, he’d secure multiple seasons at an annual rate presumably higher than anything available to him on a lengthier deal. Bellinger’s $80MM deal guaranteed him $60MM over the first two seasons of the three-year term if he chose to forgo the first opt-out (which he did). An identical construct for Alonso would mean that, including the $20.5MM he earned in his final arbitration season, he could have $53MM from 2024-25 or $80.5MM from 2024-26. If the aim is to topple the $158MM he rejected in 2023 (which, again, would’ve covered the 2024-30 seasons), he’d be well on his way.

Additionally, Alonso would have the opportunity to improve on a down showing in 2024 that has surely hindered interest. The slugger didn’t have a bad season; his .240/.329/.459 slash was 22% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. His 34 home runs were a clear plus mark. But Alonso’s past two seasons haven’t been as dominant as he was from 2019-22, when he hit a combined .261/.349/.535 (37% better than average).

A 2025 showing more in line with that form would potentially set Alonso up for a much larger payday — and do so on the heels of a premium salary in 2025. He’d also have the benefit of reentering the open market without a qualifying offer and the associated draft pick compensation hanging over his head. Players can only receive one QO in their career, and Alonso rejected one from the Mets back in November.

Latest On Pete Alonso’s Market

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Approximately eight teams are involved in the market for Pete Alonso, writes Jon Heyman of the New York Post. However, Heyman suggests that most of those clubs are interested in a shorter-term, opt-out laden deal with the star slugger.

That aligns with recent reporting from ESPN’s Jeff Passan that suggested that Alonso is likely to turn to a short-term contract. Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote in a reader mailbag last week that contract length appeared to be the holdup in talks between Alonso and the Mets. Heyman frames things similarly, reporting that the Mets prefer a short-term deal.

According to Heyman, Alonso had been seeking a deal of at least six years with a guarantee in the $150-180MM range at points this offseason. It is unclear how far his camp at the Boras Corporation has moved off that ask. In any case, it doesn’t seem that any teams were willing to go those heights. That’s not especially surprising considering the way teams have devalued defensively-limited sluggers over the past decade. Freddie Freeman and Matt Olson each got six-plus years and narrowly topped $160MM (albeit with deferrals in Freeman’s case), but they were each coming off superior platform seasons to Alonso.

Alonso turned 30 last month. He hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 homers across 695 trips to the plate. That was his lowest full-season home run total and slugging percentage. Paired with the defensive limitations as a middling defender at first base, it’s easy to understand teams’ hesitance to make a long-term commitment. At the same time, there’s clear value in a player who plays every game who hit 34 homers in what is a relative down year from a power perspective.

MLBTR predicted a five-year, $125MM contract for Alonso, who rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets. As we noted from the beginning of the winter, though, it wasn’t difficult to foresee a situation where his market didn’t materialize as his camp envisioned. Alonso had previously declined a seven-year, $158MM extension offer (albeit not while he was represented by Scott Boras). That covered his final arbitration season, in which he made $20.5MM. To come out ahead, he needed to beat $137.5MM over six free agent years. While that was evidently a goal, it looked like an uphill battle.

Alonso could end up taking the route traversed by Cody Bellinger last offseason. When his market didn’t materialize as hoped, Bellinger signed for three years and $80MM with opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. Alonso would probably expect to beat a $26.67MM average annual value if he’s going with a short-term contract. A return to the Mets still seems the best fit, especially if the team successfully waits him out into pivoting to a three-year guarantee. New York could keep Mark Vientos at third base for another season.

Teams like the Angels, Giants, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been loosely tied to Alonso in recent weeks. Los Angeles, Toronto and Boston all have in-house options at first base who could clutter the picture. San Francisco seemingly wanted to upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr., but Heyman reports that they’re reluctant to meet Alonso’s asking price.

Latest On Luis Arraez’s Trade Market

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The Padres and infielder Luis Arráez avoided arbitration earlier today by agreeing to a $14MM salary for the 2025 season, his final before he reaches free agency next offseason. Even after agreeing to a contract, however, there’s no guarantee that Arraez will be San Diego come Opening Day. The club is reportedly angling to lower its payroll to something closer to 2024’s $169MM figure. With outstanding needs in the outfield and rotation that have yet to be addressed, trading a pricey arbitration-level player like Arraez or Dylan Cease seems like it may be the best avenue for the club to simultaneously lower its payroll and add talent to remain competitive in the NL West this season.

That’s led the Padres to at least consider parting ways with Arraez this winter, and there have been some conflicting reports about potential interest from the Yankees regarding Arraez’s services. The club is in need of infield help after losing Gleyber Torres in free agency, and Arraez’s history as a second baseman makes him something of a plausible option. With that being said however, Andy Martino of SNY is the latest voice to cast doubt on the fit between Arraez and the Yankees. While Martino acknowledges that the club had some discussions back in November that involved Arraez, he adds that similarly brief conversations were held regarding fellow Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth along with a number of other players, and that the Yankees are not expected to pursue Arraez at this point in the winter.

That may not completely shut the door on Arraez winding up in the Big Apple, however. Martino suggests that while the Mets have not engaged with the Padres in “substantive” talks regarding Arraez to this point, they’re in the market for a veteran infielder and he could come into play for the club in the event that slugging first baseman Pete Alonso signs elsewhere. In that case, Arraez would provide the Mets with a short-term solution at first along with the ability to back up second and third base in a pinch. That would leave the door open for New York to reevaluate its needs next winter in a free agent class that figures to be headlined by star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. barring an extension with the Blue Jays. Paul Goldschmidt, Ryan O’Hearn, and Josh Naylor are among the other noteworthy names that figure to be available in next year’s first base class.

When it comes to their hole at first base, the club seems to be clearly focused on bringing Alonso back into the fold despite a number of recent reports have suggested that there remains a gap between the two sides in terms of years. It’s difficult to imagine the Mets going in another direction until Alonso’s market develops further, but it’s worth noting that the same surely could have been said about third baseman Alex Bregman and the Astros in the weeks prior to the club adding Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker to box him out of the club’s infield mix.

Should the Mets wind up searching for other options themselves, Arraez figures to be one of a number of backup options at their disposal in the event that Alonso ultimately signs elsewhere. There’s been some rumors that the club could consider Bregman as a backup to Alonso, which would kick incumbent third baseman Mark Vientos over to first. More direct first base options available in free agency or on the trade market include Justin Turner, LaMonte Wade Jr. or perhaps even Red Sox youngster Triston Casas, though none of those players have been directly connected to the Mets at this point.

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