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Cubs, Astros Have Discussed Ryan Pressly; Pitcher Has Not Waived No-Trade Clause

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4:46pm: Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Pressly has not agreed to waive his no-trade clause to this point. According to Rome, while the Astros are shopping Pressly, a deal is not considered imminent. The veteran righty would obviously need to approve a trade for anything to get across the finish line.

4:36pm: The Cubs are “on the verge” of acquiring right-hander Ryan Pressly from the Astros, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Pressly has a full no-trade clause and will have to waive it for a deal to be finalized.

Chicago has been looking for another back-end reliever. Pressly has plenty of experience in the late innings. He worked as Houston’s closer between 2020-23. Pressly saved 12 games in the shortened season and recorded between 26 and 33 saves over the next three years. He didn’t allow an earned run average north of 3.58 in any of those seasons.

Houston displaced Pressly in the ninth inning when they signed Josh Hader. Pressly pitched well in a setup capacity this year, posting a 3.49 ERA through 56 2/3 innings. He triggered a $14MM vesting option for the 2025 season. That’s probably close to market value for one year of his services. It’s $4MM above what Andrew Kittredge and José Leclerc received as free agents, for instance. The Astros are narrowly above the luxury tax threshold, though, so they could look to offload payroll to duck below the tax line. Pressly would be their most obvious trade candidate if he were open to moving. He’s a Texas native who has spent nearly seven years with the Astros, however, so it’d be understandable if he’s reluctant to move.

Pressly, Jansen, Robertson Among Cubs’ Bullpen Targets

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As the Cubs look to strengthen the back end of their bullpen, they’ve considered a lengthy list of names via both the trade market and free agency. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that Chicago has some interest in Astros righty Ryan Pressly and that they’ve looked into a long list of free agents — Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Brooks Raley among them.

The Cubs recently finished runner-up to the Dodgers in their quest to sign Tanner Scott, putting forth a reported four-year, $66MM offer that broke all recent precedent for Chicago’s approach to bullpen acquisitions. The Cubs haven’t given out a multi-year guarantee or even an eight-figure salary to any individual reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel in 2019. Signing Scott would’ve marked a major paradigm shift for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer. That’s also true of free agent Carlos Estevez, to whom the Cubs have also been linked. Conversely, the list of considerations highlighted by Mooney and Sharma are more in line with the team’s prior approach to bullpen building.

Pressly stands as the most interesting name in many regards. A trade involving the longtime Houston stopper would have major ramifications for two clubs and ripple effects throughout the rest of the free-agent market. He’s owed $14MM this season in the final year of his contract but also wields a no-trade clause, allowing him to control his own fate.

If Pressly were amenable to a trade that’d send him to Wrigley Field, the Cubs would immediately have a new closer, while the Astros would dip back under the luxury tax threshold. Houston currently sits just $3MM over the line, per RosterResource’s estimate. Trading Pressly would put them $11MM under the threshold, perhaps giving the ’Stros the financial leeway to pursue an outfielder. They’re reportedly interested in Jurickson Profar, for instance.

The 36-year-old Pressly was the primary closer in Houston for four seasons, from 2020-23, before giving way to free-agent signee Josh Hader in 2024. Pressly moved into a setup role this past season and tallied 25 holds in addition to four saves. He pitched 56 2/3 innings with a solid 3.49 ERA, a 23.8% strikeout rate, a 7.4% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and just 0.64 homers per nine innings.

All of those rate stats were better than league-average, but many still represent a step in the wrong direction for Pressly. Beginning with his 2018 breakout in Minnesota and stretching through the 2023 season, for instance, Pressly punched out a whopping 32.6% of his opponents with just a 6.4% walk rate. The uptick in walks this past season wasn’t necessarily glaring, but it’s fair to say Pressly isn’t missing bats anywhere close to where he did at his peak. A four-seamer that average 95.3 mph from ’18-’23 checked in at a 93.8 mph average in ’24, and his swinging-strike rate dipped from 16.6% (again, ’18-’23) to a strong but far less remarkable 12.6%. League-average this past season was 11.1%.

Payroll-wise, adding Pressly would bump the Cubs to around $194MM in 2025 payroll with about $212MM worth of luxury considerations. That’d leave them $29MM shy of this year’s $241MM tax threshold. The Cubs and Astros already got together on one blockbuster, sending Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago in exchange for infielder Isaac Paredes, righty Hayden Wesneski and top prospect Cam Smith. One would presume that Pressly’s name at least came up in those talks, but a larger and more complex package shipping both Tucker and Pressly to Wrigley Field was obviously never reached.

The free agent candidates laid out by The Athletic all fit the Cubs’ typical preference for short-term acquisitions in the bullpen, but genuine pursuits of Jansen and/or Robertson would still mark a change of note. From 2020-24, the largest guarantee the Cubs gave to a reliever was Hector Neris’ $9MM deal last offseason. Either Jansen or Robertson would likely command an eight-figure guarantee. Jansen saved 27 games and posted a 3.29 ERA, 28.4% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate in 54 2/3 innings with the Red Sox this past season. Robertson notched a 3.00 earned run average in 72 innings with Texas, punching out one-third of opponents against a 9.1% walk rate.

The Cubs are plenty familiar with Robertson, of course. He signed a small one-year deal there prior to the 2022 season and largely revived his career at Wrigley Field. This time around, however, the circumstances would be different. Robertson inked an incentive-laden $3.5MM deal for one year in the 2021-22 offseason, as he’d yet to fully reestablish himself following Tommy John surgery while playing for the Phillies. He’s now coming off a trio of dominant seasons. With recent $10MM guarantees for both Jose Leclerc (A’s) and Andrew Kittredge (O’s), Robertson could well command a salary north of that sum. The Cubs’ offer to Scott and reported interest in Estevez show a willingness to spend that type of money on a reliever, though.

As for the others, they’re likely to come at a lesser rate. The Mets declined a net $7.5MM decision on Maton, opting for a $250K buyout over a $7.75MM option. He’s still coming off a nice year, however, having posted a 3.66 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and 46.8% grounder rate in 64 frames. He finished particularly well after being traded from the Rays to the Mets in July. Stanek was another summer trade acquisition for the Mets; he posted a combined 4.88 ERA in 55 1/3 innings between Seattle and Queens. He whiffed 27.8% of opponents but issued walks at a 10.4% clip and was tagged for an average of 1.30 homers per nine innings.

Raley is on the mend from Tommy John surgery that was performed on May 29 of this past season. As such, the 36-year-old southpaw (37 in June) will be a midseason reinforcement wherever he signs — be it in Chicago or elsewhere. Raley was excellent from 2022-24 when healthy, tallying 115 1/3 frames of 2.58 ERA ball with a 27.3% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

Astros Reportedly “Extensively” Shopping Ryan Pressly

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Astros right-hander Ryan Pressly is being “extensively shopped” on the trade market this winter, according to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. That’s not the first indication this winter that Pressly could be available, as a report emerged last month indicating that Houston had at least internally discussed dealing the veteran righty, but it’s nonetheless notable that the club has seeming begun shopping him to rival clubs on the trade market.

At the outset of the offseason, GM Dana Brown was candid about the fact that his club’s budget for this winter was looking tight. While the club has emphasized its desire to remain in contention next year, Brown acknowledged the club might have to get “creative” in addressing holes on the roster. That was a potentially ominous sign for a club that saw longtime third baseman Alex Bregman elect free agency last month, leaving them with holes at both infield corners along with room to improve on the outfield grass and in the starting rotation. RosterResource notes that the club is already on the hook for a projected $215MM payroll in 2025, just $20MM below their Opening Day payroll in 2024 and just $29MM below their end-of-season payroll this past year.

With such a tight budget, it’s easy to imagine 2024 being the end of Bregman’s tenure in Houston. That’s not something the Astros have been willing to concede to this point, however, as they’ve reportedly made an offer to Bregman since he reached free agency. The specifics of that offer aren’t entirely clear, but subsequent reporting has suggested there may be a gap between the sides as the Astros hope to retain Bregman on a deal in the range of six years and $156MM while Bregman hopes to land a deal worth at least $200MM. The uncertainty surrounding Bregman has led the Astros to consider potential fallback options, including first baseman Christian Walker and infielder Jorge Polanco, though it’s not hard to imagine Walker himself commanding an AAV that could land outside of the Astros’ comfort zone.

Whether it be in service of a more robust pursuit of Bregman or to increase their flexibility in the event he signs elsewhere, it makes plenty of sense for the Astros to consider dealing Pressly this winter. The 36-year-old hurler is due $14MM in the final year of his contract following a solid but unspectacular 2024 season where he pitched to a 3.49 ERA and 3.10 FIP in a late-inning role after being bumped from the closer role by the club’s deal for Josh Hader last winter. Pressly’s results remained solid, but his peripheral numbers took a step back as his 23.8% strikeout rate was his worst since 2016 while his 7.4% walk rate was his worst in a 162-game season since 2018.

While Pressly is obviously still a quality reliever, he’d be unlikely to receive a $14MM AAV on the open market ahead of his age-36 season this winter. That lack of clear trade value could make a trade difficult for the Astros to pull off, and any trade talks figure to be further complicated by the fact that Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with ten years of service time and five consecutive years with his current club. That means Pressly would have to approve a trade in order to be moved, and there’s no guarantee that the Dallas native who has previously signed multiple contract extensions with the Astros would be interested in leaving Houston.

Those obstacles are significant, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Pressly remain in an Astros uniform next year because of them. They certainly don’t necessarily mean that a deal is impossible, however. It’s at least feasible that Pressly could have interest in being traded to a club that would be willing to use him in the ninth-inning after he racked up 102 saves in 118 chances (86.4% conversion rate) across his four years in the role with Houston. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies are all among teams that could be in the market for help in the ninth inning this winter, and Nightengale suggests that Philadelphia could have particular interest in Pressly’s services.

Nightengale goes on to speculate that a deal involving Pressly and Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm could make sense for both clubs if the Astros fail to land Bregman, though it’s worth noting that Bohm figures to have more value on the trade market than Pressly so a straight one-for-one swap seems unlikely. Meanwhile, Chicago is known to have interest in dealing Cody Bellinger and Houston has reportedly checked in on Bellinger this winter. That makes a swap involving Bellinger and Pressly at least a theoretical fit between the two sides, though it’s unclear if discussions between the Cubs and Astros about Bellinger even involved other names much less Pressly in particular.

Astros Have Internally Discussed Ryan Pressly Trade

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The Astros have had internal conversations about the possibility of trading Ryan Pressly, reports Chandler Rome of the Athletic. While that’d be a logical way to clear payroll space, a deal is complicated by the reliever’s full no-trade rights.

Pressly has a decade of MLB service and has spent five-plus seasons in Houston. Players who meet that criteria have full no-trade protection under the collective bargaining agreement. Pressly could quickly halt trade consideration if he has no desire to leave. (Rome notes that the pitcher’s wife Kat is a Houston native.)

If Pressly is amenable to moving, that would go a long way to opening spending room for the team. The Astros are trying to re-sign Alex Bregman. They could look for help at first base and in the outfield. RosterResource already projects next season’s luxury tax number around $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of the lowest threshold. They’d need to go well into tax territory to retain Bregman. Even if they let the star third baseman walk, they’re likely to push above the tax line for what’d be a second straight year. They’d be subject to higher penalties for exceeding the threshold in back-to-back seasons.

General manager Dana Brown admitted last month that the situation could require the Astros to be “creative” with their payroll. The most straightforward solution — subject to the no-trade complications — is a Pressly deal. The righty triggered a $14MM vesting option for his age-36 season. That’s a pricey sum for a pitcher who lost his spot in the ninth inning when the Astros signed Josh Hader last winter. Pressly featured prominently on MLBTR’s list of the top offseason trade candidates as a result.

While the Astros may not be keen on a $14MM salary, another team could assume that to plug Pressly into the ninth inning. He closed in Houston between 2020-23, locking down 30+ saves in each of the latter two seasons. Pressly hasn’t posted a season with an ERA above 4.00 during his six-plus years with the Astros, though his results have trended slightly downward over the last two seasons.

After turning in consecutive sub-3.00 showings in 2021-22, Pressly has allowed an ERA around 3.50 for the past couple years. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine over 56 2/3 innings this past season. His 23.3% strikeout percentage and 48.8% grounder rate, while solid, were each below typical levels. Pressly’s strikeout and whiff rates have dropped in consecutive years. His 93.8 MPH average fastball velocity was down a tick compared to last season.

Pressly appears to be on a slight decline, though he remains a quality late-game arm. A $14MM salary is about the range he’d expect as a free agent. The Orioles committed $13MM to Craig Kimbrel last winter, while the Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman for $10.5MM. The Rangers added David Robertson on a deferred $11.5MM deal. Pressly falls into that bucket of one-time star closers who are still effective but not as dominant as they were at their peak. The Astros could probably find a taker for the majority or all of the money, but teams aren’t going to part with significant prospect capital to acquire what is essentially a market value contract.

Hader will be back in the ninth inning. Bryan Abreu remains an excellent setup option. A Pressly trade would put more pressure on the likes of Tayler Scott and potentially Bryan King to prove themselves capable of pitching meaningful innings.

Astros Designate Janson Junk For Assignment

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The Astros announced that they have signed outfielder Jason Heyward and optioned outfielder Chas McCormick, two moves that were previously reported. To open a 40-man spot for Heyward, right-hander Janson Junk has been designated for assignment. The club also reinstated right-hander Ryan Pressly from the injured list and optioned left-hander Bryan King.

Junk, 28, was just claimed off waivers from the Brewers at the start of this month and has been kept on optional assignment since then. He made four starts for Triple-A Sugar Land, allowing 10 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings.

Since the trade deadline has passed, the Astros will have to put him back on waivers in the coming days. He could perhaps garner interest from clubs in need of innings. He only has four major league frames on his track record so far, with an unimpressive 5.18 ERA. But from 2021 to the present, he has tossed 356 2/3 minor league innings with a 3.84 ERA. His 20.4% strikeout rate in that time is a bit below average but his 7.4% walk rate is strong and he’s also had solid ground ball rates.

He will be out of options next year but can still be optioned for the rest of the 2024 season. He has less than a year of service time and can therefore be controlled well into the future, but he will have less roster flexibility by the next campaign.

Astros Place Ryan Pressly On 15-Day Injured List

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The Astros placed veteran reliever Ryan Pressly on the 15-day injured list today with a low back strain. In a corresponding move, the team recalled right-hander Seth Martinez from Triple-A Sugar Land. Martinez will be available out of the bullpen for tonight’s game against the White Sox.

Pressly, 35, has been with the Astros since 2018, pitching to a 2.84 ERA with 109 saves in that time. He also has a 2.22 ERA with 14 additional saves in the postseason. Although he lost his job as Houston’s closer when the team signed Josh Hader this past offseason, he remains one of the club’s more reliable high-leverage bullpen arms. Through 49 games in 2024, Pressly has a 3.86 ERA, 3.45 SIERA, and 21 holds. He has worked almost exclusively in the eighth inning.

Astros relievers rank fifth in MLB and second in the AL with a 3.61 ERA on the season. Still, losing Pressly for any amount of time will be a tough blow to weather as the team looks to stay on top of the Mariners in the AL West. The Astros just entered a stretch of 18 games in 18 days, and after their series against the White Sox wraps up this weekend, they will face the Red Sox, Orioles, Phillies, and Royals.

Thankfully for the Astros, manager Joe Espada does not seem especially concerned about the severity of Pressly’s injury. To that point, the skipper explained that Pressly initially tried to pitch through the pain. Yet, considering the righty’s recent struggles (9.00 ERA in his last four appearances), it makes sense that the team decided to give him some time to rest up and heal. Espada described the IL stint as “a little breather,” which certainly suggests Pressly won’t be gone too long (Espada interview clip via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

Martinez, 29, has a 2.92 ERA (but a 4.59 SIERA) in 41 appearances as a low-leverage reliever for the Astros this season. The right-hander made the Opening Day roster out of spring training, and he stuck with the big league club until the trade deadline. He was then optioned to Triple-A as the Astros made room for new acquisitions Yusei Kikuchi and Caleb Ferguson on the active roster. Aside from his low ERA, none of his 2024 numbers jump off the page. Still, he will provide Houston with another capable arm while Pressly is on the mend.

Ryan Pressly Reaches Vesting Option Threshold

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Astros reliever Ryan Pressly tossed a scoreless inning to earn a hold in tonight’s 3-2 victory over the Rays. As Chandler Rome of the Athletic points out (on X), that was the veteran righty’s 45th appearance of the season. Combined with 65 appearances last year, Pressly has reached 110 games since the start of 2023.

That’s the necessary threshold to vest the $14MM team option on his contract for 2025. Marc Berman of USA Today wrote in February that the option also requires that Pressly not finish this season on the injured list. (It’s not uncommon for a vesting provision to require the player to pass an end-of-year physical.) Assuming he’s healthy at year’s end, he’s officially under contract for the ’25 campaign at $14MM. It’s a traditional vesting option, so Pressly does not have the ability to decline it in favor of free agency.

Pressly, who turns 36 in January, will be going into his seventh full season with the Astros. Houston acquired him from the Twins at the 2019 deadline in what turned out to be a fantastic pickup. Pressly carries a 2.77 earned run average in 327 regular season appearances. He has been even better in October, firing 44 2/3 innings of 2.22 ERA ball in his playoff career.

While relief pitchers can be volatile, Pressly has been an annual source of stability. He hasn’t had an ERA higher than 3.58 in any of his seasons with Houston. Pressly has reached at least 50 appearances in the previous four full schedules of his Astros tenure. He’s well on his way to doing so again. He spent the 2020-23 seasons operating as Houston’s closer and was consistently among the top relievers in the game.

The Astros signed Josh Hader to a five-year, $95MM free agent deal late last offseason. That pushed Pressly into a setup role for the ’24 campaign. That wasn’t an indictment of his performance so much as an opportunity for Houston to build a three-headed monster of Hader, Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of the bullpen. That trio struggled to a 5.40 ERA in April, a big reason the team got off to a slow start. They’ve been dominant for the better part of three months since then, combining for a 2.56 ERA over 102 innings. The team has correspondingly turned its fortunes around, erasing a 10-game deficit on the Mariners to hold a marginal lead in the AL West race with two months to play.

Including tonight’s performance, Pressly carries a 3.38 ERA across 42 2/3 innings. He has 19 holds and a pair of saves against six blown leads. Those generally solid results are in spite of an elevated .344 average on balls in play. Pressly is striking out a quarter of opponents with a solid 46.7% grounder rate and a tidy 7% walk percentage. While it’s a slight step down from his 2019-23 production, Pressly continues to turn in above-average performance late in games.

The Astros and Pressly’s representatives at the Ballengee Group have hammered out a pair of extensions over the years. In Spring Training 2019, they inked a two-year, $17.5MM pact with a ’22 vesting option. Pressly hit that mark, locked in his 2022 salary, then agreed to another two-year deal early in the season. That one guaranteed him $30MM — matching $14MM salaries for 2023-24 and at least a $2MM buyout on the ’25 vesting option. He’s now set to max the deal out at $42MM over three seasons by securing the $12MM difference between next year’s option price and the buyout figure.

Pressly joins Jose Altuve ($30MM), Hader ($19MM), Lance McCullers Jr. ($17MM), Yordan Alvarez ($15MM), Cristian Javier ($10MM) and Victor Caratini ($6MM) on next year’s books. They’re still on the hook for big salaries for José Abreu ($19.5MM) and Rafael Montero ($11.5MM) to close those respective ill-fated three-year free agent pacts. That’s $128MM in guaranteed commitments.

Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker are both going to surpass $15MM salaries in their final arbitration seasons, while Bryan Abreu, Mauricio Dubón, Jeremy Peña, Luis Garcia and Jake Meyers are among their other arbitration-eligible players. Houston has a lot of commitments before deciding whether to re-sign Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander and deadline pickup Yusei Kikuchi. There’ll be a lot on GM Dana Brown’s plate next winter, but owner Jim Crane showed a wiliness to push into the second tier of luxury tax penalization this year in pursuit of an eighth straight trip to the ALCS and beyond.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Could Pursue Closing Help At Deadline

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The Orioles lead the American League with a 26-13 record, putting them half a game above the Yankees at the top of the AL East. Baltimore again looks like one of the best teams in the league and is trending towards buying at the deadline.

One area that could be a priority this summer: fortifying the back of the bullpen. Baltimore lost star closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery last fall. They signed Craig Kimbrel — their only major league free agent pickup of the winter — to a $13MM deal to solidify the ninth inning. That hasn’t worked out quite the way the front office envisioned. Kimbrel has run into recent struggles that put his status as closer into question.

Baltimore used Kimbrel in the seventh inning in last Friday’s win over the Diamondbacks. Manager Brandon Hyde was noncommittal after that game about whether that signified a permanent role change for the nine-time All-Star. The O’s haven’t had a save situation since then, though they used Yennier Cano in the top of the ninth in a tied game (a situation in which a team typically calls on its closer) on Saturday. Kimbrel threw a scoreless 11th inning in that contest and got the win when the Orioles walked off in the bottom half.

There are more than two months for Kimbrel to pitch his way back into the ninth inning before the deadline. Still, the situation is flexible enough that the Orioles could consider alternatives if the veteran’s performance remains uneven. To that end, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote over the weekend the O’s will monitor the status of established closers like Jordan Romano, Ryan Helsley and Ryan Pressly.

All three players are theoretical deadline trade possibilities, although they’re each on teams that entered the season expecting to contend. The Blue Jays are four games under .500 and sit last in the AL East. The Cardinals are at the bottom of the NL Central with a 16-24 record. At 15-25, the Astros have an even worse mark, though they’re at least ahead of the Angels in their division.

None of those clubs are going to start moving veteran players anytime soon. Houston GM Dana Brown recently shot down the possibility of selling in any capacity, although it seems likely the team would reconsider that approach if they remain well below .500 in July. All three are veteran-laden teams that surely won’t pivot to selling unless it’s clear they don’t have a path back to competing this year, though.

Romano, 31, has operated as Toronto’s closer for the last three seasons. He’s a two-time All-Star who has saved 36 games in consecutive years. Romano hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs per nine in any of the past three seasons. He opened this year on the injured list with elbow inflammation. He was reinstated in mid-April and has worked at his typical velocity (96.5 MPH fastball, 86.4 MPH slider). Romano is playing on a $7.75MM salary and is under arbitration control for one more season.

Helsley is also arbitration controlled through 2025. He’s making $3.8MM this year for the Cardinals. The 29-year-old has been one of the game’s most effective relievers on a rate basis going back to 2022. Helsley owns a 1.65 ERA with a massive 36.5% strikeout rate in 120 1/3 innings over the past two-plus seasons. The power righty pairs a fastball that averages more than 99 MPH with an upper-80s slider. After missing a good chunk of the 2023 campaign to a forearm strain, Helsley has been healthy this season. He has allowed just three earned runs with 21 strikeouts and two walks over 19 innings.

Things have been more rocky for Pressly, who has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) in his first 14 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old righty has managed 22 strikeouts with six free passes, though, and he’s keeping the ball on the ground more than half the time an opponent makes contact. Those secondary marks and Pressly’s career track record should lead to plenty of interest if the Astros get to a point where they’d seriously consider moving him at the deadline. Pressly has worked in a setup capacity to Josh Hader this year; he saved more than 30 games in each of the last two seasons.

From a financial perspective, Pressly would be a costlier add than either Romano or Helsley. He’s playing on a $14MM salary and has a matching option for 2025 that would vest if he appears in 50 games this season. He’s at 16 appearances already and looks well on track to triggering that option barring a notable injury.

Astros Notes: Verlander, Pressly, Brown

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The Astros are out to a slow start this year, currently sitting 15-25, ahead of just the White Sox and Angels in the American League standings. That’s led to early speculation about them possibly trading some pieces at this summer’s deadline.

General manager Dana Brown was recently on MLB Network and said that he “can’t predict any scenario” where the Astros sell at the deadline. But as noted by Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that channel is usually on in clubhouses and he may have decided to portray public confidence with the players watching.

There will be many interesting decisions for the club to make this year, though the on-field performance will obviously play a huge factor in how they make those choices. There is still time for them to climb back into contention, with the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently giving them a 39.6% chance to make the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus have them slightly better than a coin toss at 51.3%.

If the club does end up in selling position, that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to tear the roster down to the studs. Cristian Javier is under contract through 2027, Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader through 2028 and Jose Altuve through 2029. Players like Luis Garcia, Chas McCormick and Bryan Abreu are arbitration-eligible through 2026, Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers through 2027, while Yainer Diaz, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco are controllable even beyond that.

There are also some guys closer to free agency that the club may have to think about trading if they can’t climb in the standings in the next two months. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent. Justin Verlander is as well, though he has a conditional player option for 2025. Ryan Pressly is in the final guaranteed year of his deal, though his 2025 mutual option becomes guaranteed if he makes 50 appearances this year. That’s a number he’s hit in the past seven full seasons and he’s already at 16 this year, meaning he’ll vest that option as long as he’s healthy. Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy each have one more arbitration season remaining before they are slated for free agency after 2025.

Though the club may have to at least field some calls on that group, there will be some complications with Verlander and Pressly. As mentioned by Rome, both players have opt-outs and would prefer to stay in Houston. That tracks with last week’s report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today, who also highlighted Verlander’s love of Houston.

Perhaps that means the most likely scenario is both players stay for next year. Verlander will have a player option if he gets to 140 innings this year and could trigger it, or perhaps re-sign even if he doesn’t make it to that line. With Pressly on pace to lock in another year on his deal and not jazzed about being traded, perhaps he just stays as well. Verlander is now 41 years old and Pressly is 35, so they may have to think about whether their love for Houston is strong enough for them to stick around and play out the string on a lost season, as opposed to competing for another ring elsewhere. But they have a few months to think that over.

For now, the club has to ponder its roster construction as they try to win the ball games in front of them. At the start of the month, the club began a stretch of playing 29 games in 30 days and manager Joe Espada said that the club would be considering a six-man rotation.

They haven’t exactly stuck to that plan initially. Javier started Saturday’s game and only recorded four outs, which led to Brown throwing five innings of long relief. Whether Brown will stick in the bullpen for a while or make another start seems undecided right now. The next three contests are slated to be started by Spencer Arrighetti, Blanco and Valdez, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on X, but with Espada telling Kawahara that either Javier or Brown could take the ball on Thursday. The club doesn’t have an off-day until May 23, and then plays another 13 straight after that. Espada says they will have a six-man rotation at some point but it’s not exactly clear how often Brown will be starting or relieving.

Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

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While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

  • Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
  • Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.
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