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Scott Kazmir

Scott Kazmir Likely To Be Released

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"It appears the Angels will have no choice but to release" lefty Scott Kazmir, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times.  That would mean eating about $7MM in remaining salary, plus a $2.5MM buyout for 2012.

GM Tony Reagins was on hand to watch Kazmir's fifth rehab start, writes DiGiovanna, and it was the lefty's fourth ugly outing.  Kazmir's recovery from back stiffness has been drawn out, as he attempts to regain his old form within the 30-day rehab window.  Last year, Kazmir's 5.94 ERA was the worst in the American League among those with 150 innings.  Kazmir led the American League in strikeouts in 2007 as a 23-year-old, but his work has gone downhill since.

Kazmir is still only 27, so don't count him out of baseball quite yet.  Perhaps another fresh start will lead to him becoming a serviceable starter in time.

As for the August trade with the Rays, the Angels sent Sean Rodriguez, Alex Torres, and Matt Sweeney to Tampa Bay.  Torres could be the gem of the deal, as he was ranked sixth among Rays prospects by Baseball America prior to the season.

Quick Hits: Beltran, Santana, Bundy, Hultzen

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On this date three years ago, Ken Griffey Jr. hit home run number 600 off of Marlins lefty Mark Hendrickson. Slugger Jim Thome will resume his quest for 600 homers once the Twins activate him from the disabled list (Thome has 593 career homers). Here are today's links…

  • The Mets are willing to eat some of Beltran's $18.5MM salary in order to get quality prospects in return, tweets SI.com's Jon Heyman. Approximately $11.4MM is still owed to him this year.
  • Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers have signed second round pick Alex Santana (on Twitter). MLB's slot recommendation for the 73rd overall pick is approximately $500K.
  • Orioles' scouting director Joe Jordan spoke to MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli about this week's draft, saying they "don’t expect" to set any bonus records for first rounder Dylan Bundy. You can see Baltimore's five largest amateur signing bonuses here.
  • Danny Hultzen (Mariners), Taylor Jungmann (Brewers) and Tyler Anderson (Rockies) are among the 2011 draftees who could make an impact in the Major Leagues before long, according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo.
  • We’re looking forward to seeing pitchers like Hultzen in the big leagues, but building a rotation through the draft is harder than it seems, as Tom Verducci shows at SI.com. Even first rounders have a high rate of failure, Verducci explains.
  • Former first rounder Scott Kazmir has a 15.15 ERA with a 13K/16BB ratio in Triple-A, so it appears that it's only a matter of time before the Angels release him, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the LA Times.
  • Jim Bowden of ESPN.com explains that he would pursue a two-year, $30MM extension with David Ortiz if he were running the Red Sox. Big Papi's consistency, history of health and hot bat all figure in to Bowden's analysis. Ortiz has a .326/.394/.612 line with 15 homers.

Quick Hits: Cabrera, Kazmir, Padres’ Draft

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Here are a few items of note as Jarrod Saltalamacchia parks one over the Big Green Monster on Sunday Night Baseball …

  • The Indians' acquisition of shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is looking like one of the organization's best moves in recent years, writes Bud Shaw of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer. The Tribe plucked Cabrera, now 25 and posting All-Star caliber numbers, from the Mariners in 2006 in exchange for Eduardo Perez. For more on how the 2011 Indians were assembled, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's recent post.
  • Angels lefty Scott Kazmir, who's spent most of the season on the disabled list, will soon begin a minor league rehab stint, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times. Kazmir may return to to the bigs as a long reliever, and if he continues to struggle, he could be released, in which case the Halos will have to eat his contract (what's left of his $12MM salary, plus a $2.5MM buyout after the season). Mike Axisa wrote in January that this one would be a make-or-break season for Kazmir, and it's not going well so far. Ben thinks the lefty may have to settle for a minor league deal this offseason.
  • The Padres own six of the first 58 picks in next month's draft, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and they face some pressure after they were unable to sign last year's first-round pick, Karsten Whitson. Center speculates that the Friars could focus on pitching and up-the-middle players, considering their farm is relatively stocked with corner infielders and outfielders. For more on the draft, be sure to check out our Amateur Draft Glossary.

Make Or Break Year: How Are They Doing?

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Before the season, MLBTR writers identified 13 players who were set for 'make or break' years. These players had experienced ups and downs in their respective careers and were positioned to re-establish themselves as difference makers at the Major League level and set themselves up for success in free agency. Now that we're at the quarter pole for the 2011 season, let's check in on the lucky 13 players (all links go to the MLBTR posts):

  • Scott Kazmir - Kazmir, now on the DL, has appeared in one game this year and he allowed five runs, five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings. I'll be surprised if he signs a guaranteed contract this winter.
  • Nate McLouth – McLouth was coming off a poor 2010 season, but the results are much better in 2011. He has a .262/.355/.379 line, though UZR/150 suggests his defense in center field has been poor since 2009.
  • Grady Sizemore – After missing most of 2010 with a knee surgery that required microfracture surgery, Sizemore returned with a vengeance, only to hit the disabled list with an injury to his other knee. In 18 games before he got hurt, Sizemore posted a .282/.333/.641 line with six homers.
  • Ryan Doumit - Though he has only stepped to the plate 82 times, Doumit has a healthy .278/.358/.458 batting line. The switch-hitter has been available in trades for a while and it wouldn't be surprising to see him dealt this summer.
  • Jonathan Broxton – Broxton is on the disabled list with a bruised right elbow and there's no timetable for his return. If he doesn't pitch well later this season, he will be overshadowed by this offseason's strong crop of free agent relief pitchers.
  • Joel Zumaya - Zumaya had elbow surgery a week ago today and is now resting and rehabbing. It's not clear that he'll return to the Tigers this year.
  • Casey Blake – Blake required surgery for an elbow infection and could return to the Dodgers soon. Before he got hurt, the 37-year-old had a .956 OPS in 66 plate appearances.
  • Aramis Ramirez - Ramirez is off to a so-so .287/.347/.368 start, but his power can sneak up on people, as it did last year when he hit 19 homers after July 5th.
  • Edwin Jackson - Still just 27, Jackson has a 4.53 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 in 55 2/3 innings. His name appears multiple times on the leaderboard for free agent starters.
  • Bobby Abreu - The 37-year-old doesn't have much power at this stage in his career (.327 slugging, .072 isolated power), but you won't find many hitters capable of a .377 OBP.
  • Carlos Beltran - Beltran has rebounded in a big way this year. The way he's hitting (.286/.381/.564, 8 homers) he'll be among the most appealing free agents available after the season. I suggested this spring that he and agent Scott Boras could ask for a multiyear deal and that seems even more likely now.
  • Matt Capps - Capps hasn't walked anyone in 18 1/3 innings and he has five saves and a 3.93 ERA. The 27-year-old's value doesn't appear to have changed much this year.
  • Jeff Francis - Though Francis is 0-5 with a 4.83 ERA, he has averaged 6.0 innings per start for the Royals and has a respectable 27K/10BB ratio. The left-hander seems healthy after consecutive seasons with shoulder issues.

Angels Notes: Kazmir, Bell, Palmer

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The latest on the Angels, who lost three of four games against the Royals over the weekend…

  • Though Angels manager Mike Scioscia says he’ll consider making changes to the pitching staff, Scott Kazmir’s job is safe for now, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The $12MM left-hander is on a “short leash,” but he’ll make at least one more start.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that there’s not much room for optimism when it comes to Kazmir or Marlins starter Javier Vazquez. I recently compared Kazmir to another well-paid left-hander who experienced early-career success, Oliver Perez.
  • Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles also weighs in on Kazmir's struggles and explains that Triple-A starters Matt Palmer and Trevor Bell are alternatives for the Angels to consider. They are looking out for end-of-rotation help and possibly a veteran reliever, according to Saxon.

Scott Kazmir & A Comparable Pitcher

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It might be impossible to find two pitchers who have caused Mets fans more grief over the course of the past five years than Scott Kazmir and Oliver Perez. The similarities don't end there; the strikeout-inducing left-handers both turned in tremendous seasons by the age of 22 only to falter soon afterwards and saddle their teams with albatross contracts.

Scott Kazmir

They are so statistically similar that Baseball-Reference lists Perez as one of the most comparable pitchers to Kazmir and vice versa. Both induce strikeouts and allow walks at an unusually high rate and each has led the league in walks and either Ks or K/9 at one point.

Despite the walks, both pitchers were tremendous just four years ago. Perez posted a 3.56 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 2007, his age-25 season. Kazmir, who was just 23 that year, posted a 3.48 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

It's not easy to find young left-handers with numbers like that, so the Rays, who acquired Kazmir from the Mets for Victor Zambrano in a one-sided 2004 trade, signed the lefty to a three-year, $28.5MM extension early in the 2008 campaign. After the season ended, the Mets signed Perez to a three-year free agent deal worth $36MM. 

The contracts have soured and the Rays and Mets have since severed ties with the pitchers, who will collect their respective $12MM paychecks elsewhere this year. Perez will start the season in the Nationals' minor league system, far from Anaheim, where Kazmir remains a member of the Angels rotation despite an unimpressive spring.

Kazmir has said he's confident in his stuff and it would be compelling to see the left-hander capitalize on the opportunity to start and return to form. It wasn't that long ago that he posted a 1.73 ERA in his six-start debut with the Angels and he appears healthy, so some hope may remain for Angels fans.

But the Mets opened the season with Perez in their rotation last year and just 12 months later he's pitching for his career in the minor leagues. For Kazmir to avoid an unceremonious release of his own, he'll have to pitch better when the season begins and end the parallels between him and Perez.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Michael Young Rumors: Wednesday

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The Rockies aren't in on Michael Young, but other clubs have at least some interest in the Rangers infielder. Young would consider trades on a case-by-case basis, though he can veto deals to teams other than the Cardinals, Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers, Angels and Padres. Yesterday we found out that the Cardinals, Twins, Mariners and Tigers have little or no interest in Young. The Astros, however, like Young's tools to an extent and might consider sending Carlos Lee to the Rangers for him. Here's the latest on Young, with the most recent updates up top:

  • The Phillies recently contacted the Rangers to express interest in Young, three league sources told Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com.  The talks ultimately didn't get very far and are no longer active.  One of the sources characterized the interaction as "tire kicking" on the part of the Phillies.  It should be noted that the Phillies are not one of the eight clubs that Young would approve trades to, though the 34-year-old says that he would consider deals to teams not on the list.
  • The Yankees aren't expected to pursue Young, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter).
  • Several people involved with the Young situation tell Jon Heyman of SI.com that they believe there’s a “decent chance” that the Rangers open Spring Training with Young. Texas is talking to multiple teams about Young and for now the Rangers are discussing deals with clubs that Young would accept trades to.
  • The Angels have little interest in picking up most of Young’s contract or assembling a package of players that would appeal to the Rangers, according to Mike DiGiovanna and Steve Dilbeck of the LA Times. Texas is looking for starting pitching and a position player who can help at the Major League level. The Angels would part with Scott Kazmir and Fernando Rodney, but those players have little appeal to the Rangers.
  • The Dodgers have some concern about Young’s defense and power, according to DiGiovanna and Dilbeck.
  • The Mets should consider acquiring Young, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Mets could send Jason Bay to the Rangers, who are known to be seeking a DH type, and New York could then either keep Young or flip him to another team, with net salary savings in either scenario.

Yankees Consider Left-Handed Pitchers

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The Yankees, who heard this week that Andy Pettitte will retire, have considered exploring trades for other left-handers, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Joe Saunders, Scott Kazmir, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard and Gio Gonzalez are among the possible targets some Yankees people have "kicked around."

The Yankees will, in all likelihood, wait and hope for better things from A.J. Burnett instead of pursuing another arm, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney. The Yankees could pursue Joe Blanton via trade or make a play for free agent Kevin Millwood, but the club seems likely to let Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Sergio Mitre and Ivan Nova battle for rotation spots. With prospects Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos on the radar, the Bronx Bombers aren't desperate for pitching, even without Pettitte.

Yankees fans may be frustrated that the front office did not sign Cliff Lee or retain Pettitte, but their club is still strong. As one American League East executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post, “People would love to have their problems. On paper they are still about as good as you want to see."

Make Or Break Year: Scott Kazmir

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50609112710_Mariners at AngelsIt's hard to believe that it's been almost seven years since the infamous Victor Zambrano-for-Scott Kazmir swap. The Mets received just 202 2/3 serviceable innings out of Zambrano (4.42 ERA) while Kazmir was busy establishing himself as one of the game's best young hurlers in Tampa. Before his 24th birthday, the hard-throwing southpaw had 97 big league starts to his credit, and he owned a 3.64 ERA with 9.7 K/9 in the AL East. At 23, he took home the AL strikeout crown with 239 whiffs.

The Rays rewarded Kazmir with a four-year contract extension after that season, but things have gone downhill since. He missed the first month of the 2008 season with an elbow issue, and then battled a quad strain in 2009. With his ERA sitting at 5.92 at the end of August '09, the Rays traded Kazmir and the two years left on his contract to the Angels for three young players.

Although he pitched well after the trade (1.73 ERA in six starts), things really fell apart in 2010. Kazmir hit the disabled list twice for shoulder soreness/fatigue last season, and when he was on the mound he was rarely effective. His velocity had declined considerably and the strikeouts were proving harder to come by. All told, Kazmir pitched to a 5.94 ERA with nearly as many walks (79) as strikeouts (93) in 150 innings last season, and only eight times in 28 starts did he complete six innings of work.

Kazmir's stock is at an all-time low, which is not where you want it to be with free agency coming up after the season. The Halos are unlikely to exercise his $13.5MM option for 2012, and unless he regains his pre-2009 form, Kazmir is in danger of falling into the Jeremy Bonderman category of reclamation free agent starters.

It's not all bad news though. Kazmir will turn just 27 years old tomorrow, and his 39.1% ground ball rate in 2010 was his best in three years. AL East and World Series experience works in his favor, and an offseason of rest could also do wonders for his achy wing. Next winter's crop of free agent pitchers is weak, so Kazmir could parlay a strong 2011 season in a nice contract. A lot has to change for that to happen, though.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Rockies Notes: Fuentes, Gonzalez, Kazmir, Beimel

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Let's take a look at some Rockies-related tidbits..

  • The Rockies like Brian Fuentes but the left-hander is looking to close and also looking for roughly $5MM per year.  Colorado isn't looking to shell out that kind of money for the 35-year-old, tweets Troy Renck of The Denver Post.
  • After resolving his visa issues, Carlos Gonzalez arrived in Denver today and will take a physical tomorrow to finalize his seven-year, $80MM contract, Renck writes.  The Rockies will likely hold a presser on Tuesday to announce the deal.
  • The Rockies lost interest in pitcher Scott Kazmir once they re-signed Jorge de la Rosa, Renck tweets.
  • One reader asks Renck via Twitter if the Rockies are still interested in reliever Joe Beimel.  It appears that other clubs have more interest in the veteran as Colorado hasn't talked to his representation lately.
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