Guardians To Re-Sign Shane Bieber
Right-hander Shane Bieber is coming back to the Guardians. He and the club have reportedly agreed to a deal with a $10MM salary in 2025, with a $16MM player option for 2026 that comes with a $4MM buyout. That makes it a $26MM guarantee over two years but Bieber can potentially return to free agency after banking $14MM in year one. He reportedly turned down more money with other clubs in order to return to Cleveland. The righty is represented by Rosenhaus Sports Representation.
Bieber, 30 in May, returns to the only organization he’s ever known. The contract is a reflection of his current status, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April, meaning he will miss at least part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the chance to return to the mound in 2025 and establish his health. If his performance can return anywhere near his previously elite levels, he can decide to return to the open market. Though if he hits any kind of setback or doesn’t quite bounce back immediately, he can bank the extra $12MM and stick around another year.
Whether he can indeed get back in form is the big question. Bieber’s ceiling is well established, as he won the American League Cy Young award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 starts that year with a 1.63 earned run average. He struck out 41.1% of batters faced, walked 7.1% of opponents and got grounders at a 48.4% rate.
But things have mostly gone downhill since then, even before the surgery. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t exactly unexpected as maintaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been almost impossible. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate were both off of his previous season but still strong numbers. He missed about three months due to a right shoulder subscapularis strain.
In 2022, he stayed healthy enough to make 31 starts and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, but with more concerning signs elsewhere. He averaged just 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that year, after mostly being in the 93-94 range in prior years. His strikeout rate also dipped to 25%, still a bit above league average but a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time due to right elbow inflammation, which seems in hindsight like a precursor to his surgery. He did make 21 starts on the year but with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate and similar velocity to the year prior.
Going into 2024, his name was in plenty of trade rumors. The Guardians often trade players as their salary grows and they get closer to free agency, doing so with players like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber somewhat recently. In hindsight, perhaps the Guards should have pulled the trigger on a deal, but maybe they didn’t receive substantial offers on the heels of all the red flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a brief moment, hanging onto Bieber seemed like a brilliant move. He made two starts at the beginning of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in each of them and recording 20 strikeouts in those 12 innings. His velocity came back slightly, with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first start of the year. But it dipped to 91.6 mph in the second start and the news of his surgery dropped before he could make a third.
Now he’ll be looking to come back from the lengthy Tommy John recovery process, as well as the concerning seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a long time since Bieber had his best stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was obviously outside of his control but all but one season since then has seen him miss significant time. In the one season where he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an interesting gamble for the Guardians, as this is a fairly notable expenditure for them. They don’t generally spend much in free agency, particularly on the pitching side. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, in the last 15 years, this is the first time they’ve given a pitcher more than $7MM. That’s partially a testament to their ability to develop their own pitching but they’ve also only given four position players a larger guarantee than this in that time.
Per RosterResource, the Guards are now projected for a payroll of $107MM next year, already more than what they spent in 2024. They could perhaps drop that by trading someone like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas but this Bieber deal is a decent chunk of the budget either way.
It’s a risky proposition for those parameters. Given that recovery from Tommy John surgery normally takes 14 months or longer, the Guards might only get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any kind, it could be less than that. Even if he is back on a big league mound by June, it’s no guarantee that he’ll be in good form.
The upside play is that Bieber comes back to something resembling an ace. The Guards install him into their second half rotation and then, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that point, he would decline his player option and they could issue him a qualifying offer, which will probably be in the $22MM range. Assuming he declines that and goes out looking for a major deal, they would recoup draft pick compensation.
On the other end of the spectrum are the scenarios where Bieber isn’t quite fully healthy or simply isn’t as good as he was before, in which case he sticks around for another year at an even higher salary than in 2025.
It’s a risk the Guardians are willing to take, which is perhaps due to the respect that the organization has for him, but it’s also perhaps a reflection of the current rotation situation. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, but the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest part of the roster. They struggled to find viable solutions there for much of the year, finding success on the backs of a decent offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen either struggled or were injured or both. Tanner Bibee was the club’s only starter who has consistently healthy and performing well all year long. Matthew Boyd was an excellent midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his own Tommy John surgery, but he became a free agent at season’s end and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Next year’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland currently consists of Bibee and many question marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are still in the mix but coming off those aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Lively is on the roster, as are fairly unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards probably have more to do in upgrading that group but they will hope that Bieber can charge in like a proverbial white knight at some point in the middle of 2025 to save the day.
The aforementioned Boyd gives a rough template of what Bieber and the Guards will be hoping for next year. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts down the stretch and then had three more good outings in the postseason. That was enough to get him a two-year, $29MM deal, but Bieber has a path to earning far more than that. Boyd is going into his age-34 season whereas Bieber will be going into his age-31 campaign in 2026. Boyd’s injury track record is also more extensive than Bieber’s and Bieber has the more impressive early career numbers.
As such, with a strong finish in 2025, Bieber could position himself to earn far more than Boyd just did, joining 2025-26 free agent starters such as Dylan Cease, Zach Eflin, Zac Gallen, Michael King, Seth Lugo, and Framber Valdez. Though that’s just one of many potential scenarios in front of him and the Guardians in the year to come.
Buster Olney of ESPN (X link) first reported that the two sides were in agreement. Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) first relayed that it was a one-year deal plus a player option. Jeff Passan of ESPN (X link) first had the dollar figures. Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link) first relayed that Bieber had larger offers elsewhere.
Guardians Notes: Fry, Free Agents, Coaching Staff
The Guardians had a strong season in 2024 but came up just shy of the ultimate goal, falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. They now head into offseason mode with some questions to be answered. Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed a few interesting notes on X today, arguably with the most notable detail being that David Fry is going to see Dr. Keith Meister about his injured elbow. On top of that, Meisel also says that the entire coaching staff will be back unless someone gets a promotion with another club, and that the Guards have some degree of mutual interest in reunions with free agents Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and Austin Hedges.
Fry had a strong season in 2024, hitting 14 home runs in just 392 plate appearances and drawing walks at a 10.7% clip. That led to a .263/.356/.448 batting line and 129 wRC+. Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching, as the righty hitter had a massive 18.2% walk rate with the platoon advantage but just 5.3% without it, while nine of his 14 long balls were against southpaws. That created lopsided platoon splits with Fry slashing .287/.430/.566 against lefties for a 179 wRC+, while those numbers were .248/.302/.374 and a 94 wRC+ against righties.
While Fry was limited by those splits this year, he was also limited in another way. He is capable of playing various spots on the diamond, with some past experience at catcher and in the four corner spots. But in late June, he was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, as Meisel relayed on X at that time. In the latter half of the season, he mostly served as a designated hitter or pinch hitter, only rarely taking the field. He didn’t play a position other than first base after the month of July.
This left manager Stephen Vogt a little bit hamstrung down the stretch and into the postseason, as he couldn’t but Fry behind the plate. That left the Guards with a catching tandem of Bo Naylor and Hedges. Naylor had a strong year defensively but didn’t hit much. As for Hedges, he’s been on the extreme edge of that profile for a long time, having spent a decade in the big leagues as one of the worst hitters but one of the best backstops when the gear is on.
Fry’s elbow issue was manageable enough that he could hit through it, but it seems he might do a deeper dive now that the season is done. Meister is an elbow specialist who has performed dozens of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures. The fact that Fry is going to see him doesn’t mean that surgery is inevitable, as it will obviously depend on the condition of his elbow, but the meeting is notable nonetheless.
If surgery is required, he’d naturally be in line for a lengthy rehab. Position players can generally return from major elbow surgeries a bit quicker than pitchers, with hitting a possibility before throwing. Bryce Harper was one extreme example, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2022 and then being reinstated in May of 2023, less than six months later. Harper served as a DH for a while and then started playing some first base in July.
Of course, each case is unique and it’s not even a guarantee that going under the knife will be necessary, but that provides a rough guideline of something that could be considered. However, if such a scenario does come to pass, then it makes sense that Guardians would have some interest in bringing back Hedges.
As mentioned, Hedges is an extreme case of a glove-first backstop, which he showed again in 2024 by putting up a line of .152/.203/.220 in his 146 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 20 was the worst in the majors among guys with that many trips to the plate, except for Martín Maldonado‘s 11 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances.
But Hedges has consistently been atop defensive leaderboards for catchers. He has 91 Defensive Runs Saved from 2015 to the present, easily the most in baseball with Roberto Pérez second with 75. He’s also tops in terms of Statcast Fielding Run Value for that stretch and second only to Yasmani Grandal in terms of FanGraphs’ framing metric. If Fry is set to miss some time next year, it would make sense to have Hedges come back and share the catching duties with Naylor, at least until Fry is once again an option behind the plate. Hedges signed for $4MM coming into this year and is likely in line for a pay cut, as his hitting in 2024 was below even his own low standards.
As for the other free agents, it’s understandable that Cleveland would be interested in bringing them back as they are all starting pitchers. The Guardians have long been known for their ability to grow rotation options on trees but struggled in that department in 2024. Bieber required Tommy John surgery while pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and others struggled to post decent results.
That led to the club in the unusual position of having to find midseason additions. They signed Boyd, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, to a major league deal in June. He was still on the injured list at the trade deadline when they acquired Cobb and added him into the mix.
Both of those two and Bieber are now heading into free agency. The Cleveland rotation for 2025 projects to be fronted by Tanner Bibee with plenty of question marks after that. Ben Lively posted a 3.81 earned run average in 2024 but that was despite a low strikeout rate of 18.7%. He may have been helped by a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side. His 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest he may have difficulty repeating that ERA. Gavin Williams is a bit of the inverse, as he had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 but with a low 66.9% strand rate, leading to a 3.67 FIP and 4.19 SIERA.
Beyond those three, it gets real murky. Joey Cantillo had a 4.89 ERA in his first major league action but did so with a 9.2% walk rate around league average. Since he’s walked 13.4% of minor leagues faced since the start of 2021 and was at 15% on the farm in 2024, it might not be wise to expect him to keep up that level of control. McKenzie and Allen had ERAs above 5.00 both in the majors and minors this year.
In short, bringing in starting pitching is a logical plan for this offseason. Mutual interest between the pitchers and the club is nice but a fair price will likely be required in each case. Boyd has been injured a lot in recent years but is going into free agency on a high note. He posted a 2.72 ERA with the Guards down the stretch, along with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate, then had a 0.77 ERA in his three playoff outings. He could perhaps parlay that strong finish into a solid two-year deal in free agency and will likely be looking to maximize his guarantee after so many injury absences in his career.
Bieber and Cobb will have less momentum in terms of their earning power. As mentioned, Bieber had Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season and will be slated to miss at least the early parts of the 2025 season. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John sometimes sign two-year deals, but those guys are usually on a path to miss most or all of the first season in those cases. Since Bieber went under the knife in April, he could perhaps play a significant role in 2025 and might try to return to the open market a year from now, either by signing a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out.
Cobb is coming off an injury-marred season that saw him throw just 22 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He came into 2024 recovering from hip surgery and eventually battled through shoulder discomfort as well as fingernail/blister issues on his pitching hand before his season was ended by a lower back strain. Now 37 years old and coming off that year, he’ll have to settle for a fairly modest deal, perhaps heavy with incentives.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $95MM payroll in 2025, which is less than $10MM shy of their 2024 number. That might not leave them a lot to work with this winter unless they’re planning on a notable spending increase. With the club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group now done and MLB taking over in that department, they may have less TV money coming and may not have much appetite for a big bump in the budget.
However, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas are each slated for notable salaries in their respective final seasons of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Naylor for $12MM and Thomas for $8.3MM. The Guardians often trade notable players before they reach free agency, with Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer being some recent examples. Perhaps they would consider the same with Naylor and/or Thomas as a way of freeing up money while also perhaps bolstering the rotation that way. Any free agent pursuits might also hinge on how that market plays out for them.
Quick Hits: Bieber, Niebla, Shildt, Cardinals
Shane Bieber‘s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health. It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract. Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.
Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians. A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab. From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.
More from around the baseball world…
- Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla’s contract is up now that the season is over, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. It isn’t known if there have been any talks between the two sides, but Acee feels an extension “should be a no-brainer” given how well the Padres’ staff has performed over Niebla’s three seasons on the job. San Diego pitchers have a combined 3.80 ERA over the 2022-24 seasons, ranking ninth in baseball in that span. Manager Mike Shildt is also now entering a walk year since 2025 is the last season of his initial two-year contract, and surely the Padres will also look to give the skipper more security in the wake of his very successful inaugural campaign with the club.
- The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games. As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.” If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload. You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue. How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?” Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.
Guardians Acquire Wes Parsons From Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have traded right-hander Wes Parsons to the Guardians for $250K of international bonus pool space, per announcements from both clubs. Parsons was designated for assignment by the Jays last week and has now been optioned to Triple-A Columbus. Righty Shane Bieber was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Parsons. It was reported over the weekend that Bieber will undergo Tommy John surgery, thus missing the remainder of the 2024 season.
Parsons, 31, pitched in the majors in 2018 and 2019 but then didn’t make it to the show in 2020 and headed to Korea for a couple of years. Over 2021 and 2022, he threw 176 innings for the NC Dinos of the KBO League with a combined earned run average of 3.68.
He returned to North America by signing a minor league deal with the Jays in 2023, then went on to make 17 starts for Triple-A Buffalo with an ERA of 4.52. He struck out 27.5% of batters faced in that time with a 44.2% ground ball rate but also issued walks at a 12.6% clip. He was added to the big league roster on the last day of the regular season after the Jays clinched a playoff spot the day before, allowing nine earned runs in four innings that day.
He lasted on the club’s 40-man through the winter and cracked the Opening Day roster after the Jays’ pitching staff suffering spring injuries to Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. Parsons tossed five innings over two appearances in the early going but allowed six earned runs and got bumped off the roster in favor of Paolo Espino.
The results have not been pretty over the last three MLB outings for Parsons, but that’s obviously a tiny sample of work. He was in decent form in Triple-A last year and had good results in the KBO over the two years prior to that. The Guardians had a roster spot to burn with the recent news of Bieber’s surgery and will use that, along with that international money, to add some optionable pitching depth to their system.
For the Jays, Parsons got squeezed off their roster but it seems there was enough interest around the league that they were able to get something in return before his DFA window was up. They will now presumably use that extra pool space to sign a young player, or perhaps multiple young players, to add to their farm system.
Shane Bieber To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Guardians ace Shane Bieber will soon be undergoing a Tommy John surgery after experiencing elbow pain in each of his last two starts, the team announced. Bieber will miss the rest of the 2024 season and roughly half of the 2025 season, as per the usual recovery timeline for TJ procedures. As initially reported by MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, right-hander Peter Strzelecki has been called to take Bieber’s roster spot, now that the Guards have officially placed Bieber on the 15-day injured list. (He’ll inevitably be moved to the 60-day IL when Cleveland next needs to open a 40-man roster spot.)
The devastating news comes on the heels of an injury-shortened 2023 campaign for the right-hander, as Bieber was limited to 128 innings while missing about two and a half months due to elbow inflammation. He returned from the 60-day injured list to make two starts in late September, which seemingly indicated that the problem was behind him, and that Bieber could now look forward to a more normal offseason and ramp-up routine. However, as the Guardians’ statement indicates, Bieber had some discomfort in his elbow following his first start this year, and the problem continued through his next outing.
Certainly nothing appeared to be amiss in terms of results, given that Bieber looked completely dominant in tossing 12 shutout innings and recording 20 strikeouts (against just one walk and 10 hits allowed) over his two starts. This will now unfortunately mark the last we’ll see of Bieber on a big league mound for the next 13-15 months, and we might have already seen his final outing in a Cleveland uniform since he is a free agent this winter.
It counted as something of a surprise to see Bieber even still with the Guardians on Opening Day, given how it was widely assumed that the right-hander would be traded in advance of his walk year. The Guards have routinely traded star players within 12-18 months of free agency since the organization is rarely (Jose Ramirez notwithstanding) willing to pay the money necessary to sign such prominent names to contract extensions. As frustrating as this process has been for Cleveland fans, the front office’s track record in these trades has been pretty successful, and some of the players gained in those deals have helped the Guardians to remain competitive despite low payrolls.
If it wasn’t for his elbow issue last season, it is quite possible the Guards might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline. His health status surely impacted his trade value this past winter, as despite reports linking the Angels, Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and Cubs to Bieber’s market, Cleveland wasn’t able to work out a deal with any of these (and undoubtedly many other) interested suitors. It’s easy to say now in the wake of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery that the Guardians should’ve moved him for whatever half-decent offer they received, though we don’t know what offers were on the table, and naturally the Guards weren’t keen on selling low on such a valuable trade asset.
There’s also the value of what Bieber brought to Cleveland’s own rotation, as the Guardians were hit with a lot of injuries to notable starters in 2023. The team’s outstanding pitching development pipeline helped cover this problem in impressive fashion with the emergence of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen, and going into this season, the idea of that young trio teaming with Bieber and the returning Triston McKenzie seemed like a promising step in the Guards’ plans to return to contention. However, Williams started the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow discomfort, and both Ben Lively and Xzavion Curry are also on the IL since a virus set the two pitchers back during Spring Training.
Veteran Carlos Carrasco has already stepped into the rotation in Williams’ place, and the Guardians will now have to hope for a quick recovery from either Lively or Curry with Bieber gone for the season. Jaime Barria is also a candidate to pick up starts in the short term, or Hunter Gaddis or Tyler Beede could be stretched out from their current relief roles, or used in a piggyback/bulk starter capacity.
A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Bieber became the latest star product of the Cleveland pitching factory when he made his MLB debut in 2018, and then finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019. That breakout year led to Bieber winning the Cy during the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 1.63 ERA over 77 1/3 innings. While the season’s abbreviated nature carries an obvious asterisk, it was just the 13th time in MLB history that a pitcher led the entire league in ERA, wins (eight), and strikeouts (122) in the same year.
Bieber hasn’t since returned to those heights, though he still has a 3.13 ERA in 436 2/3 innings from 2021-24, and he was an All-Star in 2021 and a seventh-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting in 2022. With this success came increasingly larger paydays throughout Bieber’s arbitration-eligible years, culminating in the arb-avoiding $13.125MM deal he signed for 2024. A big bounce-back season would’ve therefore set him up quite nicely for a pricey free agent contract in the 2024-25 offseason, especially if he could’ve avoided a qualifying offer via a midseason trade from the Guardians.
As it stands now, Bieber might have to wait quite some time to score a hefty multi-year commitment. Even if he pitches well after returning partway through the 2025 season, clubs might want to see a larger sample size of good health and good results before guaranteeing a nine-figure salary. Assuming then that Bieber pitched well and stays healthy throughout 2026, he might then have a safer track record….but teams could then be wary of Bieber’s age, since 2027 would be his age-32 season.
Under the circumstances, there is a chance the Guardians could yet retain Bieber into 2025, as unlikely as this scenario would’ve seemed even a few days ago. Cleveland might look to extend Bieber through the 2025 campaign or even both the 2025-26 seasons, on a low salary for 2025 and then the rest of the money backloaded into 2026. We’ve seen such contractual models used for other pitchers recovering from lengthy injury rehabs, most recently Brandon Woodruff‘s two-year, $17.5MM deal to re-sign with the Brewers less than two months ago. If Bieber and the Guards had interest in such an arrangement, Bieber could complete his entire rehab in a familiar environment, and the Guardians could still get some benefit from having Bieber for part of 2025 and perhaps 2026.
Dodgers “Looked Into” Trades For Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo
While the highlight of the Dodgers’ offseason is of course the signing of superstar Shohei Ohtani, the club has worked hard to overhaul its starting rotation after the unit struggled to a collective 4.57 ERA last year, a figure that ranked 20th among major league clubs. They’ve been very successful in that regard, signing NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto while dealing for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. The club appears to have recently rounded out its rotation mix (give or take a possible reunion with long-time franchise face Clayton Kershaw) with the addition of veteran southpaw James Paxton, though MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently reported that the club recently looked into making a bigger splash even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.
Per Toribio, the club “looked into” trades for Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Jesus Luzardo in the aftermath of the club adding Yamamoto and Glasnow back in December. Since then, Burnes has been dealt to the Orioles while Cease appears increasingly unlikely to move before Opening Day after being frequently connected to the Dodgers earlier in the offseason. Bieber and Luzardo, on the other hand, had not yet been publicly connected to the Dodgers this winter. It’s unclear if the Dodgers retain interest in either hurler with Paxton now on board, but either would certainly be an intriguing addition for the league’s most aggressive club this winter.
Bieber, 28, is coming off a down season relative to his own lofty standards as he posted a 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP while being limited to just 21 starts by a bout of elbow inflammation. Still, the two-time All Star and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has been among the best pitchers in the league over the past half decade, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 114 appearances dating back to the 2019 season and would figure to improve virtually any rotation if traded for, including that of the Dodgers. Bieber has also indicated a willingness to negotiate an extension with his new club in the event that he’s traded, meaning its feasible that a trade could net the Dodgers a longer-term asset than Bieber’s one year of team control would otherwise imply.
While the Guardians figure to attempt to remain competitive in a weak AL Central division this year, they’ve shown a propensity for dealing star players elsewhere before they reach free agency as demonstrated by deals shipping out players such as Corey Kluber and Francisco Lindor. What’s more, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reported back in December that the Guardians are unlikely to increase payroll above last year’s levels in 2024, leaving them with little room to upgrade their flawed positional mix without shedding salary or trading an asset. A Bieber deal would allow the club to accomplish both of those goals, potential adding a hitter as part of the return for the right-hander while also freeing up $13.125MM in the club’s budget for other additions.
Luzardo, 26, struggled early in his career as a member of the A’s but has flourished in the years since he was acquired by Miami. In the past two years, Luzardo has made 50 starts to the tune of a 3.52 ERA with a 3.40 FIP. The 26-year-old southpaw has struck out an impressive 28.7% of batters faced during that time while walking 7.9%, establishing himself as the #2 starter in Miami behind ace Sandy Alcantara. With Alcantara expected to miss the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, however, Luzardo is currently penciled in as the staff ace ahead of the likes of Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera. Important as Luzardo may be to Miami’s rotation entering 2024, the club is nonetheless reportedly open to dealing him or another piece from the rotation, with only Perez reportedly untouchable in trade talks. Luzardo is under team control through the 2026 season.
While the addition of either Luzardo or Bieber would certainly bolster an already impressive Dodgers rotation, their recent addition of Paxton along with the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw’s future with the club leaves how an additional starter would fit into L.A.’s rotation puzzle questionable. On paper, the club’s rotation appears to be full as things stand with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Paxton joining Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Talented as that group of five is, however, there’s plenty of questions surrounding that group’s durability. Glasnow and Paxton both have lengthy injury histories, Yamamoto has spent his career to this point pitching just once a week overseas, and Miller’s 138 2/3 innings of work last year between the majors and minors was a career high. Meanwhile, Buehler is coming off more than a season lost due to Tommy John surgery and even Kershaw, if brought back into the fold, isn’t expected to pitch until August as he rehabs from shoulder surgery.
While youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone could certainly contribute meaningful innings to help the Dodgers overcome the lack of certainty in their rotation mix, the addition of a surefire starting arm such as Bieber or Luzardo could help solidify the club’s overall rotation mix headed into the season. While all evidence points to the club planning on a five-man rotation this season, it’s possible the Dodgers could be more amenable to the idea of using a sixth starter throughout the season given the fact that they’ll be forced to implement a six-man staff when Ohtani returns to the mound next year.
The Dodgers are far from the only club that may be interested in the services of Luzardo or Bieber, of course; the Yankees expressed interest in both arms last month. Earlier in the offseason, the Marlins and Royals reportedly discussed a deal involving Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, while Bieber reportedly drew interest from teams such as the Cubs and Reds.
Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions
Craig Breslow‘s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito‘s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park. With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.
Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control. Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects. It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers. Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.
Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster. However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency. Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”
This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance. Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.
One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023. That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.
This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga. Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations. However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.
The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.” Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.
There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023. That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.
Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration
The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.
Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.
Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.
Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.
The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.
Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber
Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo. In addition, the Yankees have also checked in the Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.
These two pitchers represent the wide range of options the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help. Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter. Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency. Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.
Because Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control. The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff. There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.
As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset. Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.
Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo. The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates.
As noted by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds earlier today, Oswald Peraza might have a clear appeal to the shortstop-needy Marlins, but it would take more just Peraza to pry Luzardo away from South Florida. It’s fair to assume that any number of teams have at least floated the idea of a Luzardo trade with the Marlins, and a demand of multiple top-100 prospects seems like a reasonable ask for Miami given Luzardo’s age, ability, and three years of control.
Unlike with Bieber and the Guardians, there is no ticking clock on Luzardo’s time in Miami, so president of baseball operations Peter Bendix would probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move the left-hander. The Marlins might well look to move a starter for hitting help, yet any of Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, or even Braxton Garrett could be likelier trade candidates than Luzardo. With Sandy Alcantara missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Luzardo and Eury Perez are lined up as the cornerstones of the talented Miami rotation.
Angels “Aggressively Scanning” Trade Market For Starting Pitching
While the Angels are still in the mix to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve other areas of its roster in the meantime. Fabian Ardaya and Sam Blum The Athletic reported this evening that the Angels have aggressive in the search for starting pitching upgrades on the trade market, engaging with rival clubs on multiple different fronts. That includes top-of-the-market rental arms such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, each of whom has frequently seen their name appear in the rumor mill this offseason.
Of the three, Glasnow has been the most frequently discussed as a trade candidate this offseason thanks to the Rays’ payroll situation and his hefty $25MM salary for the 2024 campaign. Such an addition would almost certainly push the Angels to the point of paying into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history in the event they were able to reunite with Ohtani, who could command an annual salary in the range of $50MM or more. Bieber and Burnes, by contrast, would be somewhat more palatable additions from a financial perspective. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the pair of right-handers to earn $12.2MM and $15.1MM in their respective final trips through arbitration this winter.
On the other end of the spectrum, Ardaya and Blum also report the Angels engaged with the Blue Jays regarding right-hander Alek Manoah, though those discussions did not ultimately gain traction. Even so, the club’s interest in adding Manoah to their rotation mix is noteworthy nonetheless. As opposed to the aforementioned trio of rental aces, Manoah won’t turn 26 until next month and would come with four seasons of team control. On the other hand, the right-hander’s production fell off a cliff in 2023 on the heels of his Cy Young finalist campaign in 2022. Manoah entered 2023 with a career ERA of 2.60 and FIP of 3.51, but saw those strong numbers collapse across 19 disastrous starts for Toronto this past season during which he posted a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work. Manoah saw his strikeout rate fall to just 19% in 2023 as his walk rate more than doubled, making him more of a long-term change of scenery candidate than a surefire, short-term improvement to the rotation mix in Anaheim.
Despite the wide variety of arms the Angels are reportedly checking in on, Ardaya and Blum suggest that the club’s willingness to engage on the markets of these rotation arms, particularly those with only one year of team control remaining, could tip the club’s hand regarding their plans for the offseason regardless of whether they manage to secure Ohtani. If the club were to surrender young talent in a deal for an arm such as Burnes, Glasnow, or Bieber, that would be perhaps the clearest indicator yet that GM Perry Minasian and his front office have no intention of initiating a rebuild this offseason, regardless of Ohtani’s ultimately destination.
With or without Ohtani, the club is certainly justified in looking for improvements to its starting rotation for next season if they intend to compete in 2024. Of the five players to make at least 20 starts for the Angels in 2023, only Ohtani posted an ERA below 4.00, leaving the collective rotation staff with a 4.47 ERA and 4.52 FIP, both of which were below the league average last season. That would leave the club in line to benefit from an impact addition to the rotation even if the club could rely on Ohtani to start every sixth day next season. That need is even further exacerbated by the fact that Ohtani won’t take the mound at all in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Even if the club manages to retain their superstar slugger, it seems unlikely they’d be able to substantially improve on their 73-89 finish last season without giving their starting five a significant facelift.
The report doesn’t name specific pieces discussed as part of a potential return package of any of the players the Angels are pursuing. That being said, Ardaya and Blum note that rival clubs have been “intrigued” by the Angels’ group of fast-rising youngsters like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel. It would be something of a surprise to see the club move any of those potentially core young pieces, particularly in a deal for a rental player. That being said, the Angels have been aggressive in trades for rental pieces in the past, including as recently as this past summer when they shipped out multiple top prospects to land Lucas Giolito from the White Sox.