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Guardians Acquire Wes Parsons From Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays have traded right-hander Wes Parsons to the Guardians for $250K of international bonus pool space, per announcements from both clubs. Parsons was designated for assignment by the Jays last week and has now been optioned to Triple-A Columbus. Righty Shane Bieber was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot for Parsons. It was reported over the weekend that Bieber will undergo Tommy John surgery, thus missing the remainder of the 2024 season.

Parsons, 31, pitched in the majors in 2018 and 2019 but then didn’t make it to the show in 2020 and headed to Korea for a couple of years. Over 2021 and 2022, he threw 176 innings for the NC Dinos of the KBO League with a combined earned run average of 3.68.

He returned to North America by signing a minor league deal with the Jays in 2023, then went on to make 17 starts for Triple-A Buffalo with an ERA of 4.52. He struck out 27.5% of batters faced in that time with a 44.2% ground ball rate but also issued walks at a 12.6% clip. He was added to the big league roster on the last day of the regular season after the Jays clinched a playoff spot the day before, allowing nine earned runs in four innings that day.

He lasted on the club’s 40-man through the winter and cracked the Opening Day roster after the Jays’ pitching staff suffering spring injuries to Alek Manoah, Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson. Parsons tossed five innings over two appearances in the early going but allowed six earned runs and got bumped off the roster in favor of Paolo Espino.

The results have not been pretty over the last three MLB outings for Parsons, but that’s obviously a tiny sample of work. He was in decent form in Triple-A last year and had good results in the KBO over the two years prior to that. The Guardians had a roster spot to burn with the recent news of Bieber’s surgery and will use that, along with that international money, to add some optionable pitching depth to their system.

For the Jays, Parsons got squeezed off their roster but it seems there was enough interest around the league that they were able to get something in return before his DFA window was up. They will now presumably use that extra pool space to sign a young player, or perhaps multiple young players, to add to their farm system.

Shane Bieber To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Guardians ace Shane Bieber will soon be undergoing a Tommy John surgery after experiencing elbow pain in each of his last two starts, the team announced.  Bieber will miss the rest of the 2024 season and roughly half of the 2025 season, as per the usual recovery timeline for TJ procedures.  As initially reported by MLB.com’s Mandy Bell, right-hander Peter Strzelecki has been called to take Bieber’s roster spot, now that the Guards have officially placed Bieber on the 15-day injured list.  (He’ll inevitably be moved to the 60-day IL when Cleveland next needs to open a 40-man roster spot.)

The devastating news comes on the heels of an injury-shortened 2023 campaign for the right-hander, as Bieber was limited to 128 innings while missing about two and a half months due to elbow inflammation.  He returned from the 60-day injured list to make two starts in late September, which seemingly indicated that the problem was behind him, and that Bieber could now look forward to a more normal offseason and ramp-up routine.  However, as the Guardians’ statement indicates, Bieber had some discomfort in his elbow following his first start this year, and the problem continued through his next outing.

Certainly nothing appeared to be amiss in terms of results, given that Bieber looked completely dominant in tossing 12 shutout innings and recording 20 strikeouts (against just one walk and 10 hits allowed) over his two starts.  This will now unfortunately mark the last we’ll see of Bieber on a big league mound for the next 13-15 months, and we might have already seen his final outing in a Cleveland uniform since he is a free agent this winter.

It counted as something of a surprise to see Bieber even still with the Guardians on Opening Day, given how it was widely assumed that the right-hander would be traded in advance of his walk year.  The Guards have routinely traded star players within 12-18 months of free agency since the organization is rarely (Jose Ramirez notwithstanding) willing to pay the money necessary to sign such prominent names to contract extensions.  As frustrating as this process has been for Cleveland fans, the front office’s track record in these trades has been pretty successful, and some of the players gained in those deals have helped the Guardians to remain competitive despite low payrolls.

If it wasn’t for his elbow issue last season, it is quite possible the Guards might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline.  His health status surely impacted his trade value this past winter, as despite reports linking the Angels, Dodgers, Reds, Yankees, and Cubs to Bieber’s market, Cleveland wasn’t able to work out a deal with any of these (and undoubtedly many other) interested suitors.  It’s easy to say now in the wake of Bieber’s Tommy John surgery that the Guardians should’ve moved him for whatever half-decent offer they received, though we don’t know what offers were on the table, and naturally the Guards weren’t keen on selling low on such a valuable trade asset.

There’s also the value of what Bieber brought to Cleveland’s own rotation, as the Guardians were hit with a lot of injuries to notable starters in 2023.  The team’s outstanding pitching development pipeline helped cover this problem in impressive fashion with the emergence of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Logan Allen, and going into this season, the idea of that young trio teaming with Bieber and the returning Triston McKenzie seemed like a promising step in the Guards’ plans to return to contention.  However, Williams started the season on the 15-day IL due to elbow discomfort, and both Ben Lively and Xzavion Curry are also on the IL since a virus set the two pitchers back during Spring Training.

Veteran Carlos Carrasco has already stepped into the rotation in Williams’ place, and the Guardians will now have to hope for a quick recovery from either Lively or Curry with Bieber gone for the season.  Jaime Barria is also a candidate to pick up starts in the short term, or Hunter Gaddis or Tyler Beede could be stretched out from their current relief roles, or used in a piggyback/bulk starter capacity.

A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Bieber became the latest star product of the Cleveland pitching factory when he made his MLB debut in 2018, and then finished fourth in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2019.  That breakout year led to Bieber winning the Cy during the shortened 2020 season, when he posted a 1.63 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.  While the season’s abbreviated nature carries an obvious asterisk, it was just the 13th time in MLB history that a pitcher led the entire league in ERA, wins (eight), and strikeouts (122) in the same year.

Bieber hasn’t since returned to those heights, though he still has a 3.13 ERA in 436 2/3 innings from 2021-24, and he was an All-Star in 2021 and a seventh-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting in 2022.  With this success came increasingly larger paydays throughout Bieber’s arbitration-eligible years, culminating in the arb-avoiding $13.125MM deal he signed for 2024.  A big bounce-back season would’ve therefore set him up quite nicely for a pricey free agent contract in the 2024-25 offseason, especially if he could’ve avoided a qualifying offer via a midseason trade from the Guardians.

As it stands now, Bieber might have to wait quite some time to score a hefty multi-year commitment.  Even if he pitches well after returning partway through the 2025 season, clubs might want to see a larger sample size of good health and good results before guaranteeing a nine-figure salary.  Assuming then that Bieber pitched well and stays healthy throughout 2026, he might then have a safer track record….but teams could then be wary of Bieber’s age, since 2027 would be his age-32 season.

Under the circumstances, there is a chance the Guardians could yet retain Bieber into 2025, as unlikely as this scenario would’ve seemed even a few days ago.  Cleveland might look to extend Bieber through the 2025 campaign or even both the 2025-26 seasons, on a low salary for 2025 and then the rest of the money backloaded into 2026.  We’ve seen such contractual models used for other pitchers recovering from lengthy injury rehabs, most recently Brandon Woodruff’s two-year, $17.5MM deal to re-sign with the Brewers less than two months ago.  If Bieber and the Guards had interest in such an arrangement, Bieber could complete his entire rehab in a familiar environment, and the Guardians could still get some benefit from having Bieber for part of 2025 and perhaps 2026.

Dodgers “Looked Into” Trades For Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo

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While the highlight of the Dodgers’ offseason is of course the signing of superstar Shohei Ohtani, the club has worked hard to overhaul its starting rotation after the unit struggled to a collective 4.57 ERA last year, a figure that ranked 20th among major league clubs. They’ve been very successful in that regard, signing NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto while dealing for and extending right-hander Tyler Glasnow. The club appears to have recently rounded out its rotation mix (give or take a possible reunion with long-time franchise face Clayton Kershaw) with the addition of  veteran southpaw James Paxton, though MLB.com’s Juan Toribio recently reported that the club recently looked into making a bigger splash even after adding Yamamoto and Glasnow.

Per Toribio, the club “looked into” trades for Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Jesus Luzardo in the aftermath of the club adding Yamamoto and Glasnow back in December. Since then, Burnes has been dealt to the Orioles while Cease appears increasingly unlikely to move before Opening Day after being frequently connected to the Dodgers earlier in the offseason. Bieber and Luzardo, on the other hand, had not yet been publicly connected to the Dodgers this winter. It’s unclear if the Dodgers retain interest in either hurler with Paxton now on board, but either would certainly be an intriguing addition for the league’s most aggressive club this winter.

Bieber, 28, is coming off a down season relative to his own lofty standards as he posted a 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP while being limited to just 21 starts by a bout of elbow inflammation. Still, the two-time All Star and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has been among the best pitchers in the league over the past half decade, with a 3.07 ERA and 3.12 FIP in 114 appearances dating back to the 2019 season and would figure to improve virtually any rotation if traded for, including that of the Dodgers. Bieber has also indicated a willingness to negotiate an extension with his new club in the event that he’s traded, meaning its feasible that a trade could net the Dodgers a longer-term asset than Bieber’s one year of team control would otherwise imply.

While the Guardians figure to attempt to remain competitive in a weak AL Central division this year, they’ve shown a propensity for dealing star players elsewhere before they reach free agency as demonstrated by deals shipping out players such as Corey Kluber and Francisco Lindor. What’s more, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reported back in December that the Guardians are unlikely to increase payroll above last year’s levels in 2024, leaving them with little room to upgrade their flawed positional mix without shedding salary or trading an asset. A Bieber deal would allow the club to accomplish both of those goals, potential adding a hitter as part of the return for the right-hander while also freeing up $13.125MM in the club’s budget for other additions.

Luzardo, 26, struggled early in his career as a member of the A’s but has flourished in the years since he was acquired by Miami. In the past two years, Luzardo has made 50 starts to the tune of a 3.52 ERA with a 3.40 FIP. The 26-year-old southpaw has struck out an impressive 28.7% of batters faced during that time while walking 7.9%, establishing himself as the #2 starter in Miami behind ace Sandy Alcantara. With Alcantara expected to miss the 2024 campaign due to Tommy John surgery, however, Luzardo is currently penciled in as the staff ace ahead of the likes of Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Edward Cabrera. Important as Luzardo may be to Miami’s rotation entering 2024, the club is nonetheless reportedly open to dealing him or another piece from the rotation, with only Perez reportedly untouchable in trade talks. Luzardo is under team control through the 2026 season.

While the addition of either Luzardo or Bieber would certainly bolster an already impressive Dodgers rotation, their recent addition of Paxton along with the uncertainty surrounding Kershaw’s future with the club leaves how an additional starter would fit into L.A.’s rotation puzzle questionable. On paper, the club’s rotation appears to be full as things stand with Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Paxton joining Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller. Talented as that group of five is, however, there’s plenty of questions surrounding that group’s durability. Glasnow and Paxton both have lengthy injury histories, Yamamoto has spent his career to this point pitching just once a week overseas, and Miller’s 138 2/3 innings of work last year between the majors and minors was a career high. Meanwhile, Buehler is coming off more than a season lost due to Tommy John surgery and even Kershaw, if brought back into the fold, isn’t expected to pitch until August as he rehabs from shoulder surgery.

While youngsters like Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone could certainly contribute meaningful innings to help the Dodgers overcome the lack of certainty in their rotation mix, the addition of a surefire starting arm such as Bieber or Luzardo could help solidify the club’s overall rotation mix headed into the season. While all evidence points to the club planning on a five-man rotation this season, it’s possible the Dodgers could be more amenable to the idea of using a sixth starter throughout the season given the fact that they’ll be forced to implement a six-man staff when Ohtani returns to the mound next year.

The Dodgers are far from the only club that may be interested in the services of Luzardo or Bieber, of course; the Yankees expressed interest in both arms last month. Earlier in the offseason, the Marlins and Royals reportedly discussed a deal involving Luzardo and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, while Bieber reportedly drew interest from teams such as the Cubs and Reds.

Latest On Red Sox Pitching, Trade Discussions

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Craig Breslow’s first offseason as Boston’s chief baseball officer has been marked by one notable free agent signing (Lucas Giolito’s two-year, $38.5MM deal) and several significant trades, with the likes of Tyler O’Neill and Vaughn Grissom joining the roster and Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, and Luis Urias all leaving Fenway Park.  With more work on the pitching staff still to be done, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that the Red Sox could again turn to the trade market, though with some limitations on the scope of their talks.

Rather than pursue pitchers who are just under team control through the 2024 season (i.e. Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber), Speier reports that the Sox are trying to acquire pitchers who have multiple years of control.  Naturally, such hurler come at a high asking price in trade talks, yet Boston is unsurprisingly wary about parting ways with its top prospects.  It doesn’t appear that any of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, or Kyle Teel are available in talks, though it isn’t clear if the Red Sox might be more open to dealing from the next tier down on their list of minor leaguers.  Speier cites outfielder Miguel Bleis and second baseman Nick Yorke as among the several other Sox prospects who have drawn trade interest from rival clubs.

Between these relatively lesser prospects and other potential younger trade chips on the big league roster, the Red Sox might be able to swing some kind of deal for a more proven upgrade, whether in the rotation or perhaps even somewhere else on the roster.  However, as Speier writes, “there’s little sense they’ll push in the chips to land an established top-of-the-rotation starter either via trade or free agency.  Further additions appear more likely in the middle or back of the rotation to improve depth and reliability.”

This isn’t markedly different from past reports about Boston’s offseason plans, though the Sox were at least somewhat engaged on enough big-ticket names (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell) to create the impression that the team was willing to splurge in the right circumstance.  Even with Montgomery and Snell still unsigned, it doesn’t look like the Red Sox will emerge as a real suitor unless either starter drops his asking price — though in that situation, one would imagine a lot of other clubs might also step up their pursuits.

One of the lingering questions of Boston’s offseason is how much Breslow has been authorized to spend, considering that some level of payroll limitation appears to be in place.  The Sox currently have approximately $177.5MM on the books for 2024 according to Roster Resource, so they’re pretty close to matching their $181.2MM Opening Day payroll from 2023.  That figure from last year ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending.

This relative hesitation towards larger spending has manifested itself not only in the lack of movement on Montgomery or Snell, but also in Boston’s pursuit of Shota Imanaga.  Granted, it appears as though the league as a whole perhaps had some concerns over Imanaga’s viability as a Major League starter, given that his four-year, $53MM deal with the Cubs fell below industry expectations.  However, Imanaga’s contract could become a five-year, $80MM pact if the Cubs exercise a club option for 2028, and they’ll have to make that decision following the 2025 season and 2026 seasons or else Imanaga can trigger an opt-out clause.

The Red Sox also had interest in a more creative deal for Imanaga, but Speier reports that their offer included only two guaranteed years “with the potential for two additional vesting years.”  Imanaga will earn $23MM ($22MM in salary and a $1MM signing bonus) over his first two seasons in with the Cubs and Speier writes that Boston’s offer paid him more than that $23MM amount through 2025, though it isn’t surprising to see why Imanaga decided to take the Cubs’ offer.

There’s still plenty of offseason left for Breslow to make more moves, and an argument could be that made that the Red Sox roster is already looking better than it did in 2023.  That said, simply being better doesn’t necessarily translate to a team capable of contending for a championship or even a playoff berth, and patience is running thin amongst the fanbase after consecutive last-place finishes in the AL East.

Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration

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The Guardians have avoided arbitration with righty Shane Bieber, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. The two sides agreed to a $13.125MM salary for the upcoming season, and his contract includes additional incentives based on Cy Young voting, a potential All-Star appearance and postseason awards voting. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Management, is in his final season of club control before reaching free agency and has been a rumored trade candidate throughout the winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a $12.2MM salary.

Bieber’s 2023 season was slowed by injury and was quite arguably his worst since his rookie effort back in 2018. Of course, that’s only relative to the 2020 Cy Young winner’s lofty standards. Bieber still notched a tidy 3.80 ERA in 128 frames and averaged more than six innings per start. He was undeniably a solid starter — just not the clear-cut ace he once was.

Drilling down a bit deeper, Bieber’s 2023 performance carried plenty of red flags, even beyond the forearm and elbow troubles that limited him to 21 starts. The right-hander’s fastball velocity has been on the decline since his 2020 Cy Young win, but this past season’s 91.6 mph was a career-low mark that checked in nearly three miles per hour shy of his 2020 levels. Bieber whiffed a comical 41.4% of his opponents in 2020 but sat at less than half that mark in 2023, with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

Bieber still sports strong walk and ground-ball rates of 6.4% and 47.2%, respectively, but neither is elite. His swinging-strike rate, meanwhile, has plummeted from 17.1% in 2020 to 10.5% this year — below the league average. Bieber also logged career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%), placing him in the second and third percentile of the league.

Concerns about the underlying numbers in his 2023 performance will probably drop Bieber’s trade value more than many onlookers would expect, but the $13.125MM salary is still a plenty affordable rate even if he continues to pitch more like a third or fourth starter than the front-of-the-rotation arm he once was. And, of course, given his impressive track record, there’s reason to believe he could rebound in 2024 — perhaps not all the way back to his peak levels but at least closer to his 2021-22 output. The demand for starting pitching far outpaces the supply of available arms as well, which will keep interest in Bieber robust.

The Guardians aren’t rebuilding, to be clear, but they’ve historically traded away their best players before they reach free agency — assuming an extension can’t be reached. Cleveland has shipped out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, among others, as they’ve reached four and five years of service time in recent offseasons. In doing so, they’ve kept their farm stocked and been able to continually churn out quality arms thanks to their nearly unparalleled pitching development prowess. Whether the Guards trade Bieber this winter or hold him into the season, the long-term rotation outlook in Cleveland has turned over. Bieber’s time there is surely drawing to a close, and the future rotation will be anchored by the likes of Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams.

Yankees Interested In Jesus Luzardo, Shane Bieber

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Earlier reports suggested that the Yankees were talking with the Marlins about their starting pitching, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds some specifics by writing that New York is interested in left-hander Jesus Luzardo.  In addition, the Yankees have also checked in the Guardians about righty Shane Bieber, Nightengale adds.

These two pitchers represent the wide range of options the Bronx Bombers are considering are they seek out rotation help.  Luzardo would be a longer-term add, as the 26-year-old is arbitration-controlled through the 2026 season and is only arb-eligible (projected for a $5.9MM salary) for the first time this winter.  Bieber is projected to earn $12.2MM in 2024, which is slated to be his final season before free agency.  Though Bieber is reportedly open to signing an extension with his new team in the event of a trade, that probably won’t be an option with the Yankees in particular, since New York so rarely breaks its unofficial team rule about offering contract extensions.

Because Cleveland almost always moves its higher-paid players prior to free agency, Bieber has been rumored as a trade candidate for years, and that speculation has been peaking now that he is entering his final year of team control.  The Guardians have already dealt one veteran pitcher in Cal Quantrill this offseason, and given the talented by generally inexperienced nature of the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, the Guards could potentially opt to hang onto Bieber to further bolster its own pitching staff.  There’s also the fact that Bieber pitched only 128 innings in 2023 due to elbow inflammation, and his numbers were only good (3.80 ERA) rather than the elite form he showed earlier in his career.

As much as Bieber could help the Guardians, however, it seems likely that the team wouldn’t hesitate to move a pitcher who might not be a part of their future in exchange for a longer-term asset.  Whether or not the Yankees might match up well with the Guardians is another matter, as New York already dealt away a good chunk of their younger pitching assets in the Juan Soto deal, and the Yankees’ young infield depth might not hold as much appeal to a Cleveland team that already has plenty of young infielders.

Naturally the Bombers aren’t going to have much interest in dealing top minor league talent for just a year of Bieber’s services, yet they could be willing to explore such a move for three years of Luzardo.  The left-hander is coming off his first full and healthy season as a starting pitcher, and the results were impressive — Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA over 178 2/3 innings, with solidly above-average strikeout and walk rates.

As noted by MLBTR’s Nick Deeds earlier today, Oswald Peraza might have a clear appeal to the shortstop-needy Marlins, but it would take more just Peraza to pry Luzardo away from South Florida.  It’s fair to assume that any number of teams have at least floated the idea of a Luzardo trade with the Marlins, and a demand of multiple top-100 prospects seems like a reasonable ask for Miami given Luzardo’s age, ability, and three years of control.

Unlike with Bieber and the Guardians, there is no ticking clock on Luzardo’s time in Miami, so president of baseball operations Peter Bendix would probably have to be bowled over by an offer to move the left-hander.  The Marlins might well look to move a starter for hitting help, yet any of Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, or even Braxton Garrett could be likelier trade candidates than Luzardo.  With Sandy Alcantara missing 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Luzardo and Eury Perez are lined up as the cornerstones of the talented Miami rotation.

Angels “Aggressively Scanning” Trade Market For Starting Pitching

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While the Angels are still in the mix to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, that hasn’t stopped the club from looking to improve other areas of its roster in the meantime. Fabian Ardaya and Sam Blum The Athletic reported this evening that the Angels have aggressive in the search for starting pitching upgrades on the trade market, engaging with rival clubs on multiple different fronts. That includes top-of-the-market rental arms such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, each of whom has frequently seen their name appear in the rumor mill this offseason.

Of the three, Glasnow has been the most frequently discussed as a trade candidate this offseason thanks to the Rays’ payroll situation and his hefty $25MM salary for the 2024 campaign. Such an addition would almost certainly push the Angels to the point of paying into the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history in the event they were able to reunite with Ohtani, who could command an annual salary in the range of $50MM or more. Bieber and Burnes, by contrast, would be somewhat more palatable additions from a financial perspective. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the pair of right-handers to earn $12.2MM and $15.1MM in their respective final trips through arbitration this winter.

On the other end of the spectrum, Ardaya and Blum also report the Angels engaged with the Blue Jays regarding right-hander Alek Manoah, though those discussions did not ultimately gain traction. Even so, the club’s interest in adding Manoah to their rotation mix is noteworthy nonetheless. As opposed to the aforementioned trio of rental aces, Manoah won’t turn 26 until next month and would come with four seasons of team control. On the other hand, the right-hander’s production fell off a cliff in 2023 on the heels of his Cy Young finalist campaign in 2022. Manoah entered 2023 with a career ERA of 2.60 and FIP of 3.51, but saw those strong numbers collapse across 19 disastrous starts for Toronto this past season during which he posted a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 87 1/3 innings of work. Manoah saw his strikeout rate fall to just 19% in 2023 as his walk rate more than doubled, making him more of a long-term change of scenery candidate than a surefire, short-term improvement to the rotation mix in Anaheim.

Despite the wide variety of arms the Angels are reportedly checking in on, Ardaya and Blum suggest that the club’s willingness to engage on the markets of these rotation arms, particularly those with only one year of team control remaining, could tip the club’s hand regarding their plans for the offseason regardless of whether they manage to secure Ohtani. If the club were to surrender young talent in a deal for an arm such as Burnes, Glasnow, or Bieber, that would be perhaps the clearest indicator yet that GM Perry Minasian and his front office have no intention of initiating a rebuild this offseason, regardless of Ohtani’s ultimately destination.

With or without Ohtani, the club is certainly justified in looking for improvements to its starting rotation for next season if they intend to compete in 2024. Of the five players to make at least 20 starts for the Angels in 2023, only Ohtani posted an ERA below 4.00, leaving the collective rotation staff with a 4.47 ERA and 4.52 FIP, both of which were below the league average last season. That would leave the club in line to benefit from an impact addition to the rotation even if the club could rely on Ohtani to start every sixth day next season. That need is even further exacerbated by the fact that Ohtani won’t take the mound at all in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery back in September. Even if the club manages to retain their superstar slugger, it seems unlikely they’d be able to substantially improve on their 73-89 finish last season without giving their starting five a significant facelift.

The report doesn’t name specific pieces discussed as part of a potential return package of any of the players the Angels are pursuing. That being said, Ardaya and Blum note that rival clubs have been “intrigued” by the Angels’ group of fast-rising youngsters like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel. It would be something of a surprise to see the club move any of those potentially core young pieces, particularly in a deal for a rental player. That being said, the Angels have been aggressive in trades for rental pieces in the past, including as recently as this past summer when they shipped out multiple top prospects to land Lucas Giolito from the White Sox.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.

1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.

Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.

The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.

Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).

Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.

Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.

Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.

Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels

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The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.

RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.

With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.

Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.

Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.

That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.

Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.

Shane Bieber Reportedly Open To Extension Following Potential Trade

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Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years.

One could argue that it’s natural for Bieber to take this approach, given that he missed more than two months late in the 2023 season with elbow inflammation. He made it back to the mound and looked healthy in a pair of late-season starts, but he’s seen his velocity dip by about three miles per hour since its peak and has a number of red flags in his profile, including strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase and ground-ball rates that have all trended in the wrong direction. There’s some logic to taking the risk-averse approach and locking in a long-term deal this offseason.

On the other hand, it’s far more common for players to spurn extension overtures at this stage of their original club control window — particularly following a trade. Players often want to get a feel for their new organization (coaching staff, teammates, competitive outlook).

Furthermore, while Bieber might not command the type of deal he once looked destined for when he was taking home AL Cy Young honors in 2020, he’s still clearly a talented pitcher. The market for even third/fourth starters has progressed over the past couple years, too, evidenced by contracts like the four-year deals awarded to Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM). Bieber is only 28 (29 in May) and would turn 30 in the first year of a theoretical free-agent deal (or extension). With any form of bounceback season in terms of health, if not performance, he’d have a case for at least a four-year deal.

It’s rare, although not unprecedented for teams to grant extension windows as a conditional element of a trade. Most recently, the Reds simultaneously acquired and extended Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees, although that was four years ago. More likely is a scenario where Bieber is simply traded to another club and the two parties spend the remainder of the offseason discussing a potential long-term deal.

Bieber’s openness to an extension might improve his trade value a bit, but one would imagine that openness would ultimately depend on where he’s traded. Using a pair of teams to which he’s already been connected, it’s easier to see a big-payroll team like the Cubs pony up on a long-term pact than it would be a smaller-payroll club like the Reds, who’ve shied away from long-term deals over the past few offseasons. Cincinnati did extend Hunter Greene, but was was a pre-arb deal that isn’t really comparable to Bieber when he’s at five-plus years of service.

While it’s interesting to hear that any prominent player who’s only a year from the open market is amenable to forgoing that right, it’s simultaneously difficult to imagine it happening. Bieber made only two starts in his return from that months-long stay on the injured list, which isn’t much for a new club to go off of when weighing whether to sign him for on a long-term arrangement. From Bieber’s vantage point, it’d be a surprise to see him sign for anything less than those aforementioned Taillon and Walker deals, given his track record. Prior to the 2023 season, he looked like a candidate for a $100MM+ deal in free agency.

The 2023 season tells another story, though. Bieber’s 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 47.2% grounder rate, 91.6 mph average fastball and career-low swinging-strike and chase rates (10.5% and 30.6%) all have the look of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace and are are all reasons to exercise caution. An uptick in velocity or reversal of course in some combination of those declining rate stats next season would go a long ways toward bolstering his stock. Perhaps Bieber and a new team (or the Guardians themselves) could find some kind of middle ground, but his recent injury troubles — he also missed two months with a shoulder strain in 2021 — and diminished performance might make it particularly difficult to find a middle ground.

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