Guardians Reportedly Shopping Steven Kwan, Shane Bieber
The Guardians seem to be getting closer to selling significant pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Cleveland is “trying to move” both left fielder Steven Kwan and starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Both players have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors over the past few days, though Kwan has generally been seen as more of a long shot candidate.
If the Guardians are truly motivated to deal Kwan, they’d have no issue doing so. He’s one of their most valuable trade chips and would bring back a huge return. Kwan is playing on a $4.175MM salary and is under arbitration control for another two seasons. The two-time All-Star is hitting .286/.351/.410 with nine homers and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. He’s one of four hitters with at least 300 plate appearances who has walked more often than he has struck out.
Kwan is a career .285/.358/.398 hitter. He’s also probably the game’s best defensive left fielder. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average gives him an uncharacteristically average grade this season, Defensive Runs Saved (+13) still views him as the gold standard at the position. The well-rounded skillset makes Kwan an ideal leadoff hitter. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies have previously been linked to him. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Reds to the list of interested teams. Speculatively speaking, the Astros could also use a left fielder and are known to be targeting left-handed bats.
While the Guardians will sort through plenty of offers on Kwan, Bieber is a more challenging trade candidate. That’s not an indictment on him as a player but a reflection of his contract structure. The former Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last April. That was his walk year, and he re-signed with Cleveland on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber is playing on a $10MM salary and has to decide between a $16MM player option or a $4MM buyout at year’s end.
An acquiring team would take on a little more than $3.2MM in salary the rest of the way. That’s plenty manageable, but the buyout would push that above $7.2MM. That’s what a team would owe for two months if Bieber were playing on a $22MM salary as opposed to a $10MM sum. That also doesn’t account for the risk that he suffers an injury setback or simply doesn’t pitch well and decides to stick with next year’s $16MM salary — which he’d only do if he feels he couldn’t beat that on the free agent market.
Bieber has not made a major league start this season. He’s closing in on his season debut after making his fourth minor league rehab appearance last night. He reached four innings and 58 pitches with Double-A Akron. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that other teams would have a heavy scouting presence in attendance. While those scouts’ opinions on Bieber’s stuff will hold far more weight than the results against Double-A hitters, the veteran righty had an impressive outing — one run on three hits and a hit batter with seven strikeouts.
While the Guardians could hold firm to a huge ask on Kwan, they should be more motivated to deal Bieber if they’re committed to selling. They have to expect him to opt out if he looks like his pre-surgery self — even more as the #3 type starter he was in 2023 as opposed to a return to the top of a rotation. Cleveland is a manageable 3.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, but they have three teams to jump and saw the path get a lot steeper when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation.
Latest On Cubs’ Starting Pitching Pursuits
The Cubs are known to be in the market for starting pitching help, and it’s not very hard to see why. Justin Steele has been out for nearly the entire season after undergoing surgery on his UCL and won’t be back until sometime next year. Jameson Taillon is currently on the injured list, as are depth arms like Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell. Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd are having their innings carefully monitored after not getting much volume in last year. Shota Imanaga has already spent time on the injured list and has some worrisome peripheral numbers.
All of that has led the Cubs to be connected to the vast majority of rumored starting pitching options available on the trade market, ranging from depth additions like Adrian Houser, to high-value rentals like Dylan Cease and Merrill Kelly, to controllable arms like Mitch Keller and MacKenzie Gore. Reporting from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers this morning offers a fresh look at some of the other arms Chicago is taking a look at with just over 30 hours to go until the deadline. Rogers writes that the Cubs have shown interest in Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin and spoken to the Rays about their starting pitchers, while Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Guardians righty Shane Bieber is “an option” for the Cubs.
Eflin, 31, has struggled badly this year with a 5.93 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 starts. A 4.39 SIERA and an absurd 19.4% home run to fly ball ratio suggest that some poor fortune could be baked into Eflin’s results this year, but even so it’s hard to view him as more than a back-of-the-rotation addition for this season. With that being said, the right-hander does have some intriguing past success under his belt. From 2020 through 2024, Eflin tossed 583 1/3 innings of work with a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He struck out 23.2% of his opponents in that time while walking just 3.9%. If Eflin can recapture that quality mid-rotation form, he could theoretically pitch in for Chicago’s prospective playoff rotation this year, though that seems unlikely to be something the Cubs (or any acquiring club) would count on.
Bieber is another potential buy-low candidate, albeit for a very different reason. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since early in the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and while he’s expected back at some point in August it’s always uncertain what sort of production a pitcher coming off major injury will be able to offer. The 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has a 3.22 ERA and 3.09 FIP for his career, however, and if he’s healthy and at his usual level of effectiveness would immediately slot in towards the top of the Cubs’ rotation.
Bieber’s contract affords him a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout for the 2026 season. That $12MM decision figures to be an easy one for Bieber to make, and he’s all be certain to decline it and return to free agency unless he suffers some sort of new injury that would impact his 2026 campaign. Still, player options are at times viewed as a “poison pill” of sorts in trade negotiations, as the Cubs saw for themselves when they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees over the offseason in what amounted to little more than a salary dump. Perhaps that could lower the acquisition cost of Bieber, making the fact that he won’t be able to immediately impact a Cubs rotation in desperate need of help more palatable.
As for the Rays, the club is routinely willing to at least listen on virtually its entire roster even when they’re buyers and appears to be leaning more towards selling in recent days. That makes it hard to know what starters the Cubs could be discussing with Tampa. Pending free agent Zack Littell has a 3.72 ERA in 21 starts this year despite shaky peripherals and could fit the sort of depth-starter mold that options like Eflin and Houser can fill. Young right-hander Taj Bradley would be an intriguing controllable addition who the Rays are reportedly willing to listen to offers on. He’s pitched to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.14 FIP over the past two seasons and is still just 24 years old.
No trade can be fully ruled out when it comes to the Rays, so perhaps someone else from the club’s rotation could be available as well. With that being said, Drew Rasmussen extended with the club through the 2027 season back in January and is approaching his innings limit this year while youngsters like Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz are still in their pre-arbitration years. The acquisition cost for any of those three players would surely be exorbitant, however, and there have been no signals that any of those arms are even available beyond the Rays’ general tendency to listen to offers on virtually all of their players. Even by Tampa’s standards, however, a trade of one of those three would register as a major surprise.
Guardians Open To Offers On Shane Bieber
The Guardians have made rehabbing right-hander Shane Bieber available, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has yet to pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April but is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.
Bieber, 30, signed a two-year, $26MM contract to remain with Cleveland after that ill-timed injury. He can opt out of the contract at season’s end, which only further muddies a complicated trade scenario. Bieber is owed the balance of a $10MM salary and at least a $4MM buyout on a $16MM player option for the upcoming season.
Cleveland had hoped that Bieber would be back on a big league mound by now. He originally embarked on a minor league rehab assignment on May 31 but felt some soreness that caused the Guards to pull him from that rehab stint and slow his return process. That initial soreness didn’t prove to be any kind of significant recurrence of injury, as Bieber’s now back on the mound. He made the second start of his current rehab stint last night with High-A Lake County. He’s pitched five innings and held opponents to a run with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio on this rehab stint. Bieber also tossed 2 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts back in that May 31 appearance.
Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his injury. He tossed 12 shutout innings and struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. Also encouraging was the fact that his average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging. It was a sample of just two starts, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Bieber at this point. Scouts figure to keep a particularly close eye on his remaining rehab starts as a result. Not only is Bieber recovering from Tommy John surgery, he’d pitched with diminished results in 2023 due to elbow troubles. He tossed 128 innings in 2023 and logged a 3.80 ERA with a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate.
At his best, Bieber is a frontline starter capable of dominating any lineup in baseball. From 2020-22, he pitched 374 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Those rate stats all range from good to excellent, and fielding-independent metrics were similarly bullish on Bieber’s success (2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA). He looked like more of a third or fourth starter in 2023 while working with career-low velocity, and now he’s coming off a major surgery with at least one minor setback. He’s an enigma, to say the least.
The player option for the 2026 season makes him all the more difficult to value. If Bieber is activated within the next two to three weeks and pitches even competently down the stretch, he’s sure to decline a net $12MM player option in favor of a return to free agency. If he pitches poorly and/or encounters further injury woes, he’d likely pick up that player option and stick his new club with a $16MM salary it’d prefer not to have on the books.
Given all those layers, the Guardians may not extract the sort of return that would typically be commensurate with a brand-name pitcher of this caliber. Bieber stands as a high-upside play but one who comes with plenty of risk as well. A trade shouldn’t be seen as a given, particularly not with Cleveland riding a three-game win streak that’s put them back to .500 and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the American League. But Bieber’s next rehab outing and the Guardians’ play in the next week merit a watchful eye, as a healthy Bieber could be a major boon for a contender’s staff — whether that’s the Guardians themselves or a theoretical trade partner.
Shane Bieber Scratched From Rehab Start Due To Elbow Soreness
2:40pm: Per Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Bieber will be shut down until the middle of next week and be re-examined at that point.
9:39am: Guardians righty Shane Bieber had been eyeing a return to the majors late this month, but that plan is on hold. Bieber felt discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow after a bullpen session between rehab starts this week, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. He’s headed for a consultation with Dr. Keith Meister, who performed the right-hander’s Tommy John surgery last April.
It’s an ominous development for a Guardians club that recently lost fellow right-hander Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 30, made his first rehab start with Cleveland’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League on May 31 and could scarcely have performed better. While the Guards monitored his workload closely and lifted him after just 2 1/3 innings, he punched out five of the nine batters he faced and allowed only a single along the way. Bieber was throwing a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for what was supposed to be a rehab start with Double-A Akron yesterday when the discomfort surfaced.
Presumably, the Guardians will provide more information on Bieber’s status within the next few days. In the meantime, it seems fair to expect that his return to the big league roster will be pushed back to at least some extent. Cleveland will want to proceed with caution regarding its longtime ace.
Bieber reached free agency this past offseason but returned to the Guardians on a two-year, $26MM contract — though the second season of that pact is a player option. He’s being paid $10MM in 2025, and the option comes with a $4MM buyout. So long as he’s healthy by season’s end, he seems quite likely to turn down that player option and re-test free agency, but the question of his health (or lack thereof) is once again front and center.
With Bieber’s status again up in the air, it looks as though Cleveland’s rotation for the foreseeable future will include righties Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi, as well as southpaw Logan Allen. It’s a solid group overall, but each has had some degree of red flag this season. Williams (13.2%), Ortiz (11.8%) and Allen (11.3%) all have problematic walk rates, while Bibee (1.82 HR/9) and Cecconi (2.66 HR/9) have both been quite homer-prone (albeit in only 20 1/3 innings for Cecconi). Cleveland starters rank 20th in the majors with a collective 4.07 ERA, but that includes 44 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball for the aforementioned Lively, who’ll likely be out through the first half of next season following his UCL repair.
Shane Bieber Targeting Return In Late June
Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber could be back in the Guardians’ rotation before the end of the month. The 30-year-old righty, who underwent Tommy John surgery last April, began a minor league rehab assignment Saturday when he pitched 2 1/3 innings for the Guards’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League and punched out five of nine opponents.
Bieber’s next start is slated to come at the Double-A level on Thursday, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic, who adds that Bieber will likely take “about four weeks, give or take a few days” before returning to the majors (barring any setbacks). The maximum length for a pitcher’s rehab stint is generally 30 days, so with Bieber already making one rehab start last week, it’ll likely be a few days shy of that four-week mark. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery can get up to three 10-day extensions to that rehab window with approval from the league and MLBPA.
If the Guards indeed plan to use around a 30-day rehab window, as Meisel implies, Bieber could make six rehab starts, with a final appearance on June 25 (or thereabouts) before being reinstated on the 29th and making his big league return on the 30th. Alternatively, they could bring him back into the MLB fold around that June 25 mark if things go smoothly. The specifics of his return will depend on how he fares in the weeks ahead, but Guardians fans can begin building up anticipation now that there’s a clock underway (again, barring any setback that would result in Bieber being pulled back from rehab).
Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his ill-timed injury. That’s not to say there’s ever a “good” time for a player to suffer a UCL injury of course, but doing so just two weeks into one’s platform year before reaching the open market is particularly sub-optimal. That’s all the more true given that the right-hander looked brilliant in those two outings as he looked to rebound from a pedestrian 2023 showing. Bieber’s average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging.
Bieber didn’t allow a run in 12 innings last year, and he struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. It was a sample of just two starts, granted, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.
Had Bieber enjoyed a healthy season, he might’ve been able to command a nine-figure contract on the open market. Instead, he returned to the Guards on a two-year contract that guarantees him $26MM. The second season of that contract is a player option, however, so Bieber’s return effort merits a watchful eye. He’s being paid $10MM this season and has a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout that he’d receive upon declining. As long as he’s confident he can top a one-year, $12MM deal — which seems overwhelmingly likely, so long as he’s healthy — Bieber will head back to the open market at season’s end. The Guards could then make him a qualifying offer.
Cleveland’s rotation has struggled without its typical top starter, ranking 22nd in the majors with a collective 4.16 ERA. The Guardians also just lost right-hander Ben Lively, who leads the rotation with a 3.22 ERA, to his own Tommy John procedure. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee have posted nearly identical 3.79 and 3.86 ERAs, respectively, though the former is doing in spite of an ugly 13.2% walk rate he’ll need to improve if he hopes to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA. Logan Allen (4.31 ERA) and Luis Ortiz (4.40 ERA) have both made at least 10 starts and held their own, though Allen’s 16.4% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate make his performance feel a bit suspect. Offseason trade acquisition Slade Cecconi has been in the rotation recently, making two very good starts to begin his Guardians tenure before a rocky third outing (five runs in 4 1/3 innings). He’s sitting on a 5.28 ERA in 15 1/3 innings overall.
All five current members of the Cleveland rotation can be optioned, which gives the Cleveland front office some flexibility once Bieber is ready to return.
Guardians Select Vince Velasquez
The Guardians made a series of roster moves today, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. Right-hander Vince Velasquez has been selected to the roster and left-hander Joey Cantillo has been recalled. To make room for those two on the active roster, righty Cody Bolton has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus and righty Paul Sewald lands on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain. To open a 40-man spot for Velasquez, righty Shane Bieber has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
Sewald departed last night’s game with shoulder inflammation. It’s unclear how long the Guardians expect him to be out of action but this move means it will be at least a couple of weeks. The Guards signed the former closer this winter, a $7MM guarantee on a one-year deal. That was a bet on a bounceback after he posted a 4.31 earned run average in 2024.
The early results have been mixed, with his ERA up to 6.17 in the early going. He has already allowed three home runs in 11 2/3 innings. However, his 31.3% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate are both excellent figures. If it weren’t for a .357 batting average on balls in play and a 64.8% strand rate, fewer runs would have crossed the plate, which is why his 4.35 FIP and 2.94 SIERA look far nicer in the small sample. If Sewald is going to get back on track, it will have to wait.
Thanks to a rainout on Friday and a doubleheader on Saturday, the Guards are now in a stretch where they play 13 games in 12 days. Yesterday, starter Gavin Williams only lasted two innings against the Twins. The bullpen then had to cover the remaining seven, though position player Will Wilson absorbed two of them. Still, they used four traditional relievers, including Sewald and Bolton, with the latter throwing 40 pitches over his two innings.
The need for fresh arms will get Velasquez back to the majors. He signed a minor league deal with the Guards in February and has been pitching for out of the rotation at Columbus. He had missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery but had a 4.88 ERA in his career prior to that.
The results haven’t been pretty so far this year, with an ERA of 6.00 through 15 innings and four starts. He has allowed 16 walks and hit one batter while only striking out 11 opponents. Regardless of the quality, Velasquez is at least stretched out and could cover multiple innings if the Guards find themselves in another blowout. He tossed four innings on Thursday and should therefore be able to take on a decent chunk of work out of the bullpen.
If they want to remove him from the roster in the coming days or weeks, he would have to be removed from the 40-man entirely. As a veteran with far more than five years of major league service, he can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent.
As for Bieber, he’s still working his way back from last April’s Tommy John surgery. His 60-day clock is retroactive to when he landed on the 15-day IL at the start of the season. That means he can be reinstated from the IL in late May. That doesn’t seem to be a possibility since he still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment. Even if he were to start such an assignment today, he would presumably need a month to six weeks to get ready, effectively a delayed Spring Training.
Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images
Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.
In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.
There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.
Onto this year’s group!
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining
Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.
Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)
Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)
Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)
Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.
Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)
Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)
Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining
Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining
Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining
Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.
A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining
Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.
Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining
Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining
The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.
Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)
Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.
Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)
Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.
Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining
It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.
Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining
Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.
Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins
Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.
It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.
There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.
Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.
Angels: Robert Stephenson
Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.
Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa
Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.
Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk
Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.
Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah
The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.
Braves: Joe Jiménez
Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.
Brewers: Robert Gasser
Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.
Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson
Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.
Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan
Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.
Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan
Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.
Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar
Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.
Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez
Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.
Mets: Christian Scott
Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.
Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson
Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.
Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells
Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.
Padres: Joe Musgrove
Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.
Pirates: Dauri Moreta
Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.
Rangers: Josh Sborz
Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.
Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim
The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.
Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy
Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.
Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson
Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.
Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long
Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.
White Sox: Jesse Scholtens
Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.
Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga
Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.
Latest On Giants, Corbin Burnes
With Max Fried joining the Yankees and Garrett Crochet landing with the Red Sox, all eyes are on Corbin Burnes. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner was always, arguably, the best starter up for grabs this winter on either the free agent market or the trade block. Now, he might be the only ace-level pitcher left available.
On Wednesday, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand suggested the Blue Jays and Giants would be the two most “aggressive” teams in pursuit of Burnes, though he described the Blue Jays as the favorites. His sources were “skeptical” that San Francisco could beat Toronto in a bidding war, given that the Giants already signed Willy Adames to a seven-year, $182MM contract earlier this month. This morning, however, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Giants, not the Blue Jays, are the “heavy favorites” to sign the All-Star right-hander.
On a similar note, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey met with agent Scott Boras late on Tuesday evening, presumably to discuss his client Burnes. Yet, Heyman does not categorize the Giants as the clear favorites, writing that both Toronto and San Francisco are making a “strong push” for the ace. He adds that four more teams are still in the mix for Burnes’s services, including his former team, the Orioles. As Heyman mentions, the Yankees and Red Sox are also thought to be interested, at least to some degree, even after adding Fried and Crochet, respectively. However, it’s not clear who the sixth team Heyman refers to could be. The Mets might have seemed like another potential landing spot, especially before they signed Juan Soto, but Tim Healey of Newsday Sports reported on Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to sign Burnes.
Turning back to the Giants, this is a team that could certainly use another top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Their starters finished 18th in ERA and 29th in innings pitched this past season. Some of their underlying numbers were more promising, such as the ninth-best SIERA in MLB, but after losing Blake Snell, it’s hard to imagine the Giants rotation, as currently constructed, could perform better in 2025. Other than ace Logan Webb, no Giants starter threw more than 125 innings in 2024. Robbie Ray is a huge question mark after missing much of the past two seasons with injuries. Jordan Hicks ran out of gas down the stretch and ultimately had to move back to the bullpen. He also dealt with shoulder issues in August and September. Kyle Harrison and Hayden Birdsong are promising young arms but have yet to prove themselves at the MLB level. Neither have Landen Roupp, Keaton Winn, or Mason Black.
At the Winter Meetings, Posey told reporters (including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area) that he has “a lot of belief” in his young pitchers and expressed hope they will “take a big step forward” in 2025. Still, the Giants could use another arm to depend on at the top of the rotation. Other than Webb, it’s not clear who on this team could start in a postseason series. Needless to say, Burnes could fill that role. If not Burnes, Pavlovic suggests the Giants are “likely” to sign another veteran starter. They haven’t been linked to many others yet, although they expressed interest in NPB ace Tomoyuki Sugano earlier this winter. According to Pavlovic, they were also in on Shane Bieber before he re-signed with the Guardians.
Red Sox Reportedly “Open” To Triston Casas Trade
The Red Sox have made plain that their top priority this winter (except, perhaps, for their pursuit of free agent superstar Juan Soto) is improving their starting rotation. That’s led the club to be connected to a number of top free agent and trade candidates throughout the winter so far, ranging from Corbin Burnes and Max Fried in free agency to Garrett Crochet via the trade market. Earlier this winter, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow indicated that the club had no interest in parting with young first baseman Triston Casas in trade this winter, praising him as a player with “40-home run potential” who he described himself as “excited” to have on the team.
While that infatuation with Casas’s skill set may be true, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported earlier today that the Red Sox have been “open” to including Casas in a trade that achieves their goal of adding a pitcher to the front of their rotation. What’s more, Speier goes on to report that one executive from a rival AL club noted that he Red Sox had offered Casas as the headliner in a package for one of his team’s pitchers. That openness to dealing Casas comes as something of a surprise given Breslow’s public comments last month but Speier cautions that while the club is “exploring all avenues” to improve this winter, including the possibility of a Casas trade, the Red Sox actually dealing the youngster remains unlikely given that they’d likely be selling low after a season where he appeared in just 63 games due to torn cartilage in his ribcage.
When healthy enough to take the field, Casas hit quite well for the Red Sox this year with a .241/.337/.462 slash line (119 wRC+) and 13 homers in 243 trips to the plate. With that being said, there were some red flags in his profile this year that may give interested clubs pause. Notably, he struck out at an elevated 31.7% clip this year that helped hold him back from reaching the incredible heights he flashed after the All-Star break in 2023, when he crushed the ball to the tune of a .317/.417/.617 slash line in a 211 plate appearance sample that nearly matches his shortened 2024 campaign. Given that tantalizing upside, it’s not necessarily a surprise that the Red Sox would be hesitant to part with Casas following an injury-plagued season that raised questions about his strikeout rate.
To that end, deals involving Casas are far from the only type of trade the Red Sox have explored this winter. Speier notes that Boston has looked into trades with various clubs that come in several forms, with Casas, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, and some of the club’s top prospects all being potential headliners for various deals the club has discussed this winter. Speier suggests that both top outfield prospect Roman Anthony and top second base prospect Kristian Campbell are considered “entirely off-limits” in trade talks, but that still leaves a number of exciting prospects in the Red Sox farm available in the right trade, potentially even including catcher Kyle Teel and infielder Marcelo Mayer.
The club has also, of course, explored free agency as they look for rotation upgrades. The club has been connected to top pitchers like Burnes and Fried throughout the winter, but they’ve also seemingly been involved at lower tiers of the pitching market as well in their search for arms. Robert Murray of FanSided reported yesterday that the Red Sox made a “serious push” for Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber before he re-signed in Cleveland, and Bieber reportedly turned down more money from other clubs in order to return to the only organization he’s known as a professional. Additionally, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reported earlier today that the Red Sox were among the teams interested in Clay Holmes before he signed with the Mets yesterday. Holmes landed in Queens as a starting pitcher after spending the majority of his big league career as a reliever, but Rosenthal and Sammon emphasized that it’s not clear whether Boston was among the clubs interested in Holmes as a starter or if they intended to use him out of the bullpen had they ultimately signed him.
That interest in Bieber (and Holmes, if they planned to put him in the rotation) suggests that the Red Sox could be willing to get creative to add pitching talent to their rotation, even as they appear focused on adding a surefire front-of-the-rotation arm. The Red Sox rotation certainly has room for multiple starters given that Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford seem to be the only hurlers locked into rotation spots next year, and pairing an ace-level pitcher like Burnes, Fried, or Crochet with an intriguing bounce-back option would be a good way for the club to raise the ceiling in their rotation substantially without needing to land two top-of-the-market pitchers. Max Scherzer and Tomoyuki Sugano are among the interesting one-year veteran options this winter who could have substantial upside, while Jeff Hoffman stands out as a reliever who has received interest as a starter this offseason.