MLBTR Podcast: Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to go over the various deadline dealings, including…
- The Padres acquiring Mason Miller, JP Sears, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Nestor Cortes, Freddy Fermin and Will Wagner, while not trading Dylan Cease nor Robert Suarez (1:20)
- The Athletics sending out Miller and Sears, getting a pile of prospects, headlined by Leo De Vries (25:20)
- The Twins trading a bunch of rentals but also Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland and Carlos Correa (31:50)
- The Astros taking on Correa despite previously trying to avoid the competitive balance tax (50:05)
- The Phillies’ deadline (58:25)
- The Mariners acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez from the Diamondbacks (1:00:40)
- The Diamondbacks trading Merrill Kelly but not Zac Gallen (1:07:45)
- The Rangers’ deadline (1:16:00)
- The Mets acquiring various relievers, including Tyler Rogers from the Giants (1:19:05)
- The Yankees acquiring Camilo Doval, David Bednar and Jake Bird (1:25:45)
- The Pirates holding several trade candidates but they did trade Ke’Bryan Hayes to the Reds (1:35:15)
- The Blue Jays acquiring Shane Bieber and Varland (1:43:40)
- The Red Sox acquiring Dustin May from the Dodgers (1:54:20)
- The underwhelming deadlines of the Cubs and Tigers (1:59:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Megapod Trade Deadline Preview – listen here
- David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here
- Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Chadd Cady, Imagn Images
Blue Jays Acquire Shane Bieber
The Blue Jays have acquired right-hander Shane Bieber from the Guardians in exchange for pitching prospect Khal Stephen, according to announcements from both clubs. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Bieber is on the 60-day injured list and won’t require an immediate 40-man roster spot with the Jays.
Bieber hasn’t pitched in a major league game since April of 2024. Shortly after that, he required Tommy John surgery. He hit free agency after last season and re-signed with the Guardians. It was a two-year, $26MM deal but with the second season being a player option. He is making $10MM here in 2025 and then the option is valued at $16MM with a $4MM buyout.
That deal reflected the uncertainty around Bieber. He was clearly going to miss some time to start the 2025 campaign but was certainly a possibility for a second-half return. The deal allowed him to bank some notable earnings, with the second year being a safety net for the event he experienced setbacks in his recovery. But if he came back and returned to his dominant form or even just a pretty good form, he would have the chance to return to free agency and secure a larger guarantee.
The uncertainty is still present now. Bieber started a rehab assignment in late May and was targeting a late June return. That didn’t come to pass. After just one rehab outing, he was shut down due to renewed elbow soreness. He restarted his rehab in the middle of July. He has made three rehab starts in the past few weeks, building from two innings in the first game to three and four innings in the subsequent appearances. In his nine total innings over those three games, he allowed two earned runs with 16 strikeouts, one walk, one hit-by-pitch and six hits allowed.
It’s a notable gamble by the Jays. Bieber is a real wild card, having not pitched in a big league game in so long. Even before the surgery, there were signs he was trending in the wrong direction. The contract adds an extra element of risk. If Bieber re-aggravates his elbow or suffers any other kind of serious injury, he’ll trigger his player option and stick around and put some more money on Toronto’s books for 2026. If he pitches well, he’ll leave, meaning the Jays have given up a big prospect for just a handful of starts from Bieber.
It’s also understandable why the Jays would roll the dice with Bieber. The Jays are surprisingly atop the American League East, something that almost no one predicted coming into the year. They shook off a cold March/April to be one of the best teams in baseball over the past three months. They have a record of 50-30 since the calendar flipped to May.
Coming into the year, it was expected that the Jays would be aggressive if they were anywhere near contention. The fan base wasn’t happy coming into 2025, on the heels of some disappointing playoff exits and a dismal 2024 season. Team president Mark Shapiro is in the final year of his contract and general manager Ross Atkins is only signed through 2026. Many have wondered if they would be out of their jobs if the Jays missed the playoffs this year. Since they happen to be doing quite well, the team understandably wants to put a proverbial foot on the gas pedal.
They have been seeking upgrades to their pitching staff. However, their rotation is fairly steady, with a number of decent options. They currently have Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Eric Lauer taking the ball regularly. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt have been rocks all year long, with each of them having an ERA between 3.82 and 4.24. Lauer, a minor league signee, has stepped up to give the Jays 74 innings with a 2.68 ERA. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s been helped by a .239 batting average on balls in play and 82.2% strand rate, but it’s been a godsend for the Jays nonetheless. Scherzer has missed a lot of time due to injury but has been passable when on the mound, with a 4.98 ERA in seven starts.
It’s a solid group but one lacking a clear dominant ace-type guy that they would want taking the ball to start a playoff series. Guys like that are hard to acquire. There have been plenty of rumors surrounding MacKenzie Gore and Joe Ryan but all indications are that those guys are unlikely to move. Even if some club can acquire them, the asking price is sure to be massive.
Bieber has been that kind of guy in the past. He was one of the best pitchers in baseball over the 2019-2021 seasons, winning a Cy Young award in the shortened 2020 campaign. Over that three-year span, he tossed 388 1/3 innings with a 2.92 ERA, 33% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. By FanGraphs’ wins above replacement, he was one of the ten best pitchers in the majors.
Whether he can get back to that level is anyone’s guess. In 2022, he was still very effective, posting a 2.88 ERA in 200 innings. However, his strikeout rate dipped to 25%, still strong but below his prior levels. In 2023, he was limited by elbow injuries to 128 innings with a 3.80 ERA and and 20.1% strikeout rate. In 2024, he made two dominant starts before he required his aforementioned surgery.
A pessimist would say that Bieber has been on the downslope for years. An optimist would say that Bieber’s elbow was probably hampering him long before he went under the knife and that he can get back to his dominant form with a clean bill of health. The Jays probably aren’t sure themselves which view is more correct but they’re putting some chips on the latter.
As of now, a best-case scenario for the Jays would see Bieber dominate through a playoff run, at which point he would opt out and return to free agency. It’s possible that they try to alter that path by signing him to a new deal. They have done a trade-and-extend before. They acquired Berríos from the Twins at the 2021 deadline, when he had a year and a half of club control left. A few months later, they signed him to a lengthy extension. Presumably, they will want to wait to see how things go in the next few weeks or months, but that is a theoretical possibility with Bieber.
Whether that happens or not, they have perhaps crossed a notable line by acquiring Bieber. RosterResource lists the club’s competitive balance tax number above $284MM with Bieber added. That’s just an estimate but going over $281MM would mean Toronto’s top 2026 draft pick would be moved back by ten slots. Cot’s Baseball Contracts gives them a bit more breathing room, having them at $273MM. That yet doesn’t include Bieber.
A player’s CBT hit is recalculated at the time of a trade. Bieber is still owed about $19.33MM over a season and a third. That works out to a CBT hit of about $14.5MM. Prorating that over the final third of the season would add a bit less than $5MM to Toronto’s CBT number. According to Cot’s, acquiring Bieber wouldn’t put them over the line. Clarity on that might not come until later and the Jays might alter the picture with other moves.
For the Guardians, they have hovered around contention for a lot of the year. However, they have struggled a bit in recent months. They’re not totally buried, currently just 2.5 games back of a playoff spot. But they recently lost closer Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation. It seems they have decided they’d rather sell than try to make a push this year. Recent reporting has suggested they would look to move Bieber and outfielder Steven Kwan, though the latter ultimately stayed in Cleveland.
By giving up a wild card in Bieber, the Guardians have added an arm with a strong chance to help them in the future. Stephen, 22, was Toronto’s second-round pick last year. This year, he has already climbed from Single-A to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he has logged 91 2/3 innings with a 2.06 ERA, 27.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.
Baseball America ranks Stephen the #5 prospect in the Jays’ system. He has a five-pitch mix which includes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup and cutter. FanGraphs recently published an updated top 100 list ahead of the deadline with Stephen up at #80 in the league.
It’s a nice swap for the Guards, turning a wild card 30-year-old who was maybe about to become a free agent into a potential future rotation building block. For the Jays, it’s a risky ploy, but they’re clearly shooting for upside. The roster is already fairly well rounded with good contributors throughout the lineup, rotation and bullpen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that they had interest in closers Jhoan Durán and Mason Miller, though those arms have been traded to the Phillies and Padres, respectively. Instead, closer to the trade deadline the Jays were able to land Louis Varland from the Twins in a surprise deal.
For now, the Jays can keep their five-man rotation intact. In the coming weeks, perhaps someone will have to be bumped out for Bieber, maybe after he makes another rehab start or two. The Jays also have Alek Manoah on a rehab assignment, working back from his own Tommy John surgery. It’s an interesting cluster of talent as the club looks to make a push through October.
Photos courtesy of Jeff Lange, D. Ross Cameron, Bruce Newman, Imagn Images
Dodgers Interested In Pete Fairbanks, Shane Bieber
The Dodgers have been connected to a number of high-profile bats this summer, ranging from Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan to Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. The focus has primarily been on upgrading the club’s bullpen, however, and while the L.A. has reportedly been connected to everyone from Ryan Helsley to David Bednar, those aren’t the only bullpen arms they could pursue. Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic writes that the club is seeking “at least one” right-handed reliever on the trade market, and adds that they’ve shown interest in Rays closer Pete Fairbanks. Aside from that, it seems as though the Dodgers have at least some cursory interest in dabbling in the rotation market, with MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reporting that L.A. brass has spoken to Cleveland about right-hander Shane Bieber.
Fairbanks, 31, has a 20.2% strikeout rate that’s down relative to previous years but hasn’t seen his results impacted as he’s pitched to a 2.75 ERA and 2.89 FIP. His solid 47.8% ground ball rate helps to explain that to some extent, although some advanced metrics are still skeptical considering that his 3.98 SIERA this year is the worst of his career. With that being said, Fairbanks had a 34.1% strikeout rate and a 2.66 ERA over a four year stretch from 2020 to 2023, and given that he’s just two years removed from those heights it would hardly be surprising if some suitors hope to unlock that elite production from him again in the future. Further helping Fairbanks’s value is that he’s controllable through the 2026 season by way of a club option valued at $7MM.
That combination of strong recent results, an impressive track record, and additional team control beyond this season has made Fairbanks a hot commodity on the trade market. The Rangers and Cubs have both been directly connected to him in recent days in addition to the Dodgers, while a number of other teams like the Phillies, Blue Jays, and Tigers are known to be on the prowl for bullpen help. With that said, there’s reason to wonder if the Dodgers might bow out if the market gets too hot on Fairbanks. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic notes that the Dodgers are not currently in the “high-end” relief market. With that being said, Rosenthal specifically mentions Twins closer Jhoan Duran and A’s closer Mason Miller. Both Duran and Miller are even more well-regarded than Fairbanks while also coming with more team control, so it’s entirely possible that Fairbanks is someone the Dodgers would still be willing to pay a relative premium given that his acquisition cost would likely still be incomparable to the likes of Duran and Miller.
Moving on to Bieber, the Guardians are known to be “trying to move” the right-hander. He’s not yet pitched this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season, but figures to be ready to pitch at some point in August. A former Cy Young award winner with a 2.91 ERA and 2.96 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, Bieber is a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter when healthy and could offer a huge boost to any club down the stretch and into the playoffs this year. The Cubs have been connected to Bieber already in the rumor mill, and a number of other teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays would also make sense for his services. A $16M player option ($4M buyout) for the 2026 season could complicate negotiations in theory, but it’s extremely unlikely that Bieber would exercise an option at that price point barring a significant injury given the ability of starters with his upside and track record to command far more than that even when coming off poor seasons.
The Dodgers are nonetheless a somewhat curious fit for his services given that they already have a stacked rotation that features Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell along with a bevy of viable back-end depth options. On the other hand, the club had a rash of injuries that left them struggling to field a full rotation earlier this year, and after suffering that same fate in the playoffs last season it would be understandable if the club decided to add yet another high-end arm to the mix in order to safeguard themselves ahead of a postseason where they’ll be looking to defend their World Series title. Los Angeles already has six MLB starters on the 60-day injured list, and while Snell is expected to be activated in the near future that just goes to demonstrate the fragility of modern pitchers and the importance of having excess depth.
Guardians Reportedly Shopping Steven Kwan, Shane Bieber
The Guardians seem to be getting closer to selling significant pieces. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Cleveland is “trying to move” both left fielder Steven Kwan and starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Both players have been mentioned in plenty of trade rumors over the past few days, though Kwan has generally been seen as more of a long shot candidate.
If the Guardians are truly motivated to deal Kwan, they’d have no issue doing so. He’s one of their most valuable trade chips and would bring back a huge return. Kwan is playing on a $4.175MM salary and is under arbitration control for another two seasons. The two-time All-Star is hitting .286/.351/.410 with nine homers and 11 stolen bases in 448 plate appearances. He’s one of four hitters with at least 300 plate appearances who has walked more often than he has struck out.
Kwan is a career .285/.358/.398 hitter. He’s also probably the game’s best defensive left fielder. He has won a Gold Glove in each of his first three seasons. While Statcast’s Outs Above Average gives him an uncharacteristically average grade this season, Defensive Runs Saved (+13) still views him as the gold standard at the position. The well-rounded skillset makes Kwan an ideal leadoff hitter. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Padres and Phillies have previously been linked to him. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds the Reds to the list of interested teams. Speculatively speaking, the Astros could also use a left fielder and are known to be targeting left-handed bats.
While the Guardians will sort through plenty of offers on Kwan, Bieber is a more challenging trade candidate. That’s not an indictment on him as a player but a reflection of his contract structure. The former Cy Young winner underwent Tommy John surgery last April. That was his walk year, and he re-signed with Cleveland on a two-year deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. Bieber is playing on a $10MM salary and has to decide between a $16MM player option or a $4MM buyout at year’s end.
An acquiring team would take on a little more than $3.2MM in salary the rest of the way. That’s plenty manageable, but the buyout would push that above $7.2MM. That’s what a team would owe for two months if Bieber were playing on a $22MM salary as opposed to a $10MM sum. That also doesn’t account for the risk that he suffers an injury setback or simply doesn’t pitch well and decides to stick with next year’s $16MM salary — which he’d only do if he feels he couldn’t beat that on the free agent market.
Bieber has not made a major league start this season. He’s closing in on his season debut after making his fourth minor league rehab appearance last night. He reached four innings and 58 pitches with Double-A Akron. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote yesterday that other teams would have a heavy scouting presence in attendance. While those scouts’ opinions on Bieber’s stuff will hold far more weight than the results against Double-A hitters, the veteran righty had an impressive outing — one run on three hits and a hit batter with seven strikeouts.
While the Guardians could hold firm to a huge ask on Kwan, they should be more motivated to deal Bieber if they’re committed to selling. They have to expect him to opt out if he looks like his pre-surgery self — even more as the #3 type starter he was in 2023 as opposed to a return to the top of a rotation. Cleveland is a manageable 3.5 games back in the Wild Card chase, but they have three teams to jump and saw the path get a lot steeper when Emmanuel Clase was placed on administrative leave pending a gambling investigation.
Latest On Cubs’ Starting Pitching Pursuits
The Cubs are known to be in the market for starting pitching help, and it’s not very hard to see why. Justin Steele has been out for nearly the entire season after undergoing surgery on his UCL and won’t be back until sometime next year. Jameson Taillon is currently on the injured list, as are depth arms like Javier Assad and Brandon Birdsell. Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd are having their innings carefully monitored after not getting much volume in last year. Shota Imanaga has already spent time on the injured list and has some worrisome peripheral numbers.
All of that has led the Cubs to be connected to the vast majority of rumored starting pitching options available on the trade market, ranging from depth additions like Adrian Houser, to high-value rentals like Dylan Cease and Merrill Kelly, to controllable arms like Mitch Keller and MacKenzie Gore. Reporting from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers this morning offers a fresh look at some of the other arms Chicago is taking a look at with just over 30 hours to go until the deadline. Rogers writes that the Cubs have shown interest in Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin and spoken to the Rays about their starting pitchers, while Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that Guardians righty Shane Bieber is “an option” for the Cubs.
Eflin, 31, has struggled badly this year with a 5.93 ERA and 5.60 FIP in 14 starts. A 4.39 SIERA and an absurd 19.4% home run to fly ball ratio suggest that some poor fortune could be baked into Eflin’s results this year, but even so it’s hard to view him as more than a back-of-the-rotation addition for this season. With that being said, the right-hander does have some intriguing past success under his belt. From 2020 through 2024, Eflin tossed 583 1/3 innings of work with a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He struck out 23.2% of his opponents in that time while walking just 3.9%. If Eflin can recapture that quality mid-rotation form, he could theoretically pitch in for Chicago’s prospective playoff rotation this year, though that seems unlikely to be something the Cubs (or any acquiring club) would count on.
Bieber is another potential buy-low candidate, albeit for a very different reason. He hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since early in the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and while he’s expected back at some point in August it’s always uncertain what sort of production a pitcher coming off major injury will be able to offer. The 2020 AL Cy Young award winner has a 3.22 ERA and 3.09 FIP for his career, however, and if he’s healthy and at his usual level of effectiveness would immediately slot in towards the top of the Cubs’ rotation.
Bieber’s contract affords him a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout for the 2026 season. That $12MM decision figures to be an easy one for Bieber to make, and he’s all be certain to decline it and return to free agency unless he suffers some sort of new injury that would impact his 2026 campaign. Still, player options are at times viewed as a “poison pill” of sorts in trade negotiations, as the Cubs saw for themselves when they dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees over the offseason in what amounted to little more than a salary dump. Perhaps that could lower the acquisition cost of Bieber, making the fact that he won’t be able to immediately impact a Cubs rotation in desperate need of help more palatable.
As for the Rays, the club is routinely willing to at least listen on virtually its entire roster even when they’re buyers and appears to be leaning more towards selling in recent days. That makes it hard to know what starters the Cubs could be discussing with Tampa. Pending free agent Zack Littell has a 3.72 ERA in 21 starts this year despite shaky peripherals and could fit the sort of depth-starter mold that options like Eflin and Houser can fill. Young right-hander Taj Bradley would be an intriguing controllable addition who the Rays are reportedly willing to listen to offers on. He’s pitched to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.14 FIP over the past two seasons and is still just 24 years old.
No trade can be fully ruled out when it comes to the Rays, so perhaps someone else from the club’s rotation could be available as well. With that being said, Drew Rasmussen extended with the club through the 2027 season back in January and is approaching his innings limit this year while youngsters like Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz are still in their pre-arbitration years. The acquisition cost for any of those three players would surely be exorbitant, however, and there have been no signals that any of those arms are even available beyond the Rays’ general tendency to listen to offers on virtually all of their players. Even by Tampa’s standards, however, a trade of one of those three would register as a major surprise.
Guardians Open To Offers On Shane Bieber
The Guardians have made rehabbing right-hander Shane Bieber available, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner has yet to pitch in the majors this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April but is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.
Bieber, 30, signed a two-year, $26MM contract to remain with Cleveland after that ill-timed injury. He can opt out of the contract at season’s end, which only further muddies a complicated trade scenario. Bieber is owed the balance of a $10MM salary and at least a $4MM buyout on a $16MM player option for the upcoming season.
Cleveland had hoped that Bieber would be back on a big league mound by now. He originally embarked on a minor league rehab assignment on May 31 but felt some soreness that caused the Guards to pull him from that rehab stint and slow his return process. That initial soreness didn’t prove to be any kind of significant recurrence of injury, as Bieber’s now back on the mound. He made the second start of his current rehab stint last night with High-A Lake County. He’s pitched five innings and held opponents to a run with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio on this rehab stint. Bieber also tossed 2 1/3 shutout innings with five strikeouts back in that May 31 appearance.
Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his injury. He tossed 12 shutout innings and struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. Also encouraging was the fact that his average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging. It was a sample of just two starts, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.
It’s hard to know what to expect from Bieber at this point. Scouts figure to keep a particularly close eye on his remaining rehab starts as a result. Not only is Bieber recovering from Tommy John surgery, he’d pitched with diminished results in 2023 due to elbow troubles. He tossed 128 innings in 2023 and logged a 3.80 ERA with a career-low 20.1% strikeout rate.
At his best, Bieber is a frontline starter capable of dominating any lineup in baseball. From 2020-22, he pitched 374 innings with a 2.70 ERA, a 30.4% strikeout rate, a 6% walk rate and a 47.2% ground-ball rate. Those rate stats all range from good to excellent, and fielding-independent metrics were similarly bullish on Bieber’s success (2.75 FIP, 3.04 SIERA). He looked like more of a third or fourth starter in 2023 while working with career-low velocity, and now he’s coming off a major surgery with at least one minor setback. He’s an enigma, to say the least.
The player option for the 2026 season makes him all the more difficult to value. If Bieber is activated within the next two to three weeks and pitches even competently down the stretch, he’s sure to decline a net $12MM player option in favor of a return to free agency. If he pitches poorly and/or encounters further injury woes, he’d likely pick up that player option and stick his new club with a $16MM salary it’d prefer not to have on the books.
Given all those layers, the Guardians may not extract the sort of return that would typically be commensurate with a brand-name pitcher of this caliber. Bieber stands as a high-upside play but one who comes with plenty of risk as well. A trade shouldn’t be seen as a given, particularly not with Cleveland riding a three-game win streak that’s put them back to .500 and within 2.5 games of a Wild Card spot in the American League. But Bieber’s next rehab outing and the Guardians’ play in the next week merit a watchful eye, as a healthy Bieber could be a major boon for a contender’s staff — whether that’s the Guardians themselves or a theoretical trade partner.
Shane Bieber Scratched From Rehab Start Due To Elbow Soreness
2:40pm: Per Zack Meisel of The Athletic, Bieber will be shut down until the middle of next week and be re-examined at that point.
9:39am: Guardians righty Shane Bieber had been eyeing a return to the majors late this month, but that plan is on hold. Bieber felt discomfort in his surgically repaired elbow after a bullpen session between rehab starts this week, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. He’s headed for a consultation with Dr. Keith Meister, who performed the right-hander’s Tommy John surgery last April.
It’s an ominous development for a Guardians club that recently lost fellow right-hander Ben Lively to Tommy John surgery. Bieber, 30, made his first rehab start with Cleveland’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League on May 31 and could scarcely have performed better. While the Guards monitored his workload closely and lifted him after just 2 1/3 innings, he punched out five of the nine batters he faced and allowed only a single along the way. Bieber was throwing a bullpen session Tuesday in preparation for what was supposed to be a rehab start with Double-A Akron yesterday when the discomfort surfaced.
Presumably, the Guardians will provide more information on Bieber’s status within the next few days. In the meantime, it seems fair to expect that his return to the big league roster will be pushed back to at least some extent. Cleveland will want to proceed with caution regarding its longtime ace.
Bieber reached free agency this past offseason but returned to the Guardians on a two-year, $26MM contract — though the second season of that pact is a player option. He’s being paid $10MM in 2025, and the option comes with a $4MM buyout. So long as he’s healthy by season’s end, he seems quite likely to turn down that player option and re-test free agency, but the question of his health (or lack thereof) is once again front and center.
With Bieber’s status again up in the air, it looks as though Cleveland’s rotation for the foreseeable future will include righties Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Luis Ortiz and Slade Cecconi, as well as southpaw Logan Allen. It’s a solid group overall, but each has had some degree of red flag this season. Williams (13.2%), Ortiz (11.8%) and Allen (11.3%) all have problematic walk rates, while Bibee (1.82 HR/9) and Cecconi (2.66 HR/9) have both been quite homer-prone (albeit in only 20 1/3 innings for Cecconi). Cleveland starters rank 20th in the majors with a collective 4.07 ERA, but that includes 44 2/3 innings of 3.22 ERA ball for the aforementioned Lively, who’ll likely be out through the first half of next season following his UCL repair.
Shane Bieber Targeting Return In Late June
Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber could be back in the Guardians’ rotation before the end of the month. The 30-year-old righty, who underwent Tommy John surgery last April, began a minor league rehab assignment Saturday when he pitched 2 1/3 innings for the Guards’ Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona Complex League and punched out five of nine opponents.
Bieber’s next start is slated to come at the Double-A level on Thursday, reports Zack Meisel of The Athletic, who adds that Bieber will likely take “about four weeks, give or take a few days” before returning to the majors (barring any setbacks). The maximum length for a pitcher’s rehab stint is generally 30 days, so with Bieber already making one rehab start last week, it’ll likely be a few days shy of that four-week mark. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery can get up to three 10-day extensions to that rehab window with approval from the league and MLBPA.
If the Guards indeed plan to use around a 30-day rehab window, as Meisel implies, Bieber could make six rehab starts, with a final appearance on June 25 (or thereabouts) before being reinstated on the 29th and making his big league return on the 30th. Alternatively, they could bring him back into the MLB fold around that June 25 mark if things go smoothly. The specifics of his return will depend on how he fares in the weeks ahead, but Guardians fans can begin building up anticipation now that there’s a clock underway (again, barring any setback that would result in Bieber being pulled back from rehab).
Bieber made only two starts in 2024, his final season of club control in Cleveland, before incurring his ill-timed injury. That’s not to say there’s ever a “good” time for a player to suffer a UCL injury of course, but doing so just two weeks into one’s platform year before reaching the open market is particularly sub-optimal. That’s all the more true given that the right-hander looked brilliant in those two outings as he looked to rebound from a pedestrian 2023 showing. Bieber’s average fastball had ticked back up to 92 mph after sitting 91.3 mph in each of the past two seasons, per Statcast. His heater had been particularly limited in April in the 2022-23 seasons, sitting under 91 mph in both. That made the velo uptick all the more encouraging.
Bieber didn’t allow a run in 12 innings last year, and he struck out a comical 20 of his 45 opponents (44.4%) against just one walk (2.2%). Fifty percent of the balls put in play against him were grounders. It was a sample of just two starts, granted, but it’s hard to draw up a better beginning to a pitcher’s walk year — or a worse finish than what quickly transpired thereafter.
Had Bieber enjoyed a healthy season, he might’ve been able to command a nine-figure contract on the open market. Instead, he returned to the Guards on a two-year contract that guarantees him $26MM. The second season of that contract is a player option, however, so Bieber’s return effort merits a watchful eye. He’s being paid $10MM this season and has a $16MM player option with a $4MM buyout that he’d receive upon declining. As long as he’s confident he can top a one-year, $12MM deal — which seems overwhelmingly likely, so long as he’s healthy — Bieber will head back to the open market at season’s end. The Guards could then make him a qualifying offer.
Cleveland’s rotation has struggled without its typical top starter, ranking 22nd in the majors with a collective 4.16 ERA. The Guardians also just lost right-hander Ben Lively, who leads the rotation with a 3.22 ERA, to his own Tommy John procedure. Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee have posted nearly identical 3.79 and 3.86 ERAs, respectively, though the former is doing in spite of an ugly 13.2% walk rate he’ll need to improve if he hopes to sustain a sub-4.00 ERA. Logan Allen (4.31 ERA) and Luis Ortiz (4.40 ERA) have both made at least 10 starts and held their own, though Allen’s 16.4% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate make his performance feel a bit suspect. Offseason trade acquisition Slade Cecconi has been in the rotation recently, making two very good starts to begin his Guardians tenure before a rocky third outing (five runs in 4 1/3 innings). He’s sitting on a 5.28 ERA in 15 1/3 innings overall.
All five current members of the Cleveland rotation can be optioned, which gives the Cleveland front office some flexibility once Bieber is ready to return.
Guardians Select Vince Velasquez
The Guardians made a series of roster moves today, as relayed by Tim Stebbins of MLB.com. Right-hander Vince Velasquez has been selected to the roster and left-hander Joey Cantillo has been recalled. To make room for those two on the active roster, righty Cody Bolton has been optioned to Triple-A Columbus and righty Paul Sewald lands on the 15-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain. To open a 40-man spot for Velasquez, righty Shane Bieber has been transferred to the 60-day IL.
Sewald departed last night’s game with shoulder inflammation. It’s unclear how long the Guardians expect him to be out of action but this move means it will be at least a couple of weeks. The Guards signed the former closer this winter, a $7MM guarantee on a one-year deal. That was a bet on a bounceback after he posted a 4.31 earned run average in 2024.
The early results have been mixed, with his ERA up to 6.17 in the early going. He has already allowed three home runs in 11 2/3 innings. However, his 31.3% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate are both excellent figures. If it weren’t for a .357 batting average on balls in play and a 64.8% strand rate, fewer runs would have crossed the plate, which is why his 4.35 FIP and 2.94 SIERA look far nicer in the small sample. If Sewald is going to get back on track, it will have to wait.
Thanks to a rainout on Friday and a doubleheader on Saturday, the Guards are now in a stretch where they play 13 games in 12 days. Yesterday, starter Gavin Williams only lasted two innings against the Twins. The bullpen then had to cover the remaining seven, though position player Will Wilson absorbed two of them. Still, they used four traditional relievers, including Sewald and Bolton, with the latter throwing 40 pitches over his two innings.
The need for fresh arms will get Velasquez back to the majors. He signed a minor league deal with the Guards in February and has been pitching for out of the rotation at Columbus. He had missed the 2024 season due to UCL surgery but had a 4.88 ERA in his career prior to that.
The results haven’t been pretty so far this year, with an ERA of 6.00 through 15 innings and four starts. He has allowed 16 walks and hit one batter while only striking out 11 opponents. Regardless of the quality, Velasquez is at least stretched out and could cover multiple innings if the Guards find themselves in another blowout. He tossed four innings on Thursday and should therefore be able to take on a decent chunk of work out of the bullpen.
If they want to remove him from the roster in the coming days or weeks, he would have to be removed from the 40-man entirely. As a veteran with far more than five years of major league service, he can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent.
As for Bieber, he’s still working his way back from last April’s Tommy John surgery. His 60-day clock is retroactive to when he landed on the 15-day IL at the start of the season. That means he can be reinstated from the IL in late May. That doesn’t seem to be a possibility since he still hasn’t begun a rehab assignment. Even if he were to start such an assignment today, he would presumably need a month to six weeks to get ready, effectively a delayed Spring Training.
Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images
Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.
In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.
There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.
Onto this year’s group!
Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining
Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.
Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)
Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)
Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)
Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.
Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)
Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.
Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)
Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining
Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.
Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining
Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.
Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining
Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.
A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining
Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.
Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining
Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining
The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.
Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)
Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.
Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)
Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.
Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining
It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.
Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining
Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.