Latest On Dylan Cease
6:10PM: Per a report from Jon Heyman of The New York Post, rival clubs have indicated that the White Sox are “pulling back” in negotiations regarding Cease. Heyman goes on to suggest that there’s a good chance Cease is still dealt at some point this offseason, and that Chicago is likely waiting to see which Yamamoto suitors miss out on the NPB ace before reengaging in discussions on their prized right-hander.
1:23PM: White Sox righty Dylan Cease has been one of the most oft-discussed names at this week’s Winter Meetings, but Chicago’s asking price on the right-hander remains quite high and — at least to this point — prohibitive. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Sox asked the Reds for pitching prospects Rhett Lowder and Chase Petty in addition to two position-player prospects, for instance. Lowder was the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft and currently ranks as baseball’s No. 45 prospect at Baseball America. Petty is the former first-rounder the Reds acquired from the Twins in their 2022 Sonny Gray trade.
Given the lofty ask, it’s not especially surprising that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic casts doubt on whether Cincinnati would actually meet Chicago’s demand in the end. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer adds that the Reds have also inquired on Guardians righty Shane Bieber and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, but they’re somewhat wary of the recent health issues for both. That’s not an issue with the durable Cease, who’s started more games than any pitcher in baseball over the past four seasons.
The Reds, of course, are far from the only team interested in acquiring Cease, who’s drawn interest from the Braves, Orioles and Cardinals (even after their trio of free agent signings), among others. The Dodgers were also linked to Cease last month, and Russell Dorsey of Bally Sports reports that even as L.A. has aggressively courted Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, they’ve also been actively involved in Cease talks throughout the Winter Meetings.
Dorsey adds that the Sox have been eyeing pitching in return packages for Cease, but the Dodgers aren’t willing to include young right-hander Bobby Miller in a potential package for Cease. Los Angeles has plenty of other arms to dangle, but Miller posted a 3.76 ERA with impressive strikeout and walk rates in 124 1/3 innings for the Dodgers as a rookie this past season. Miller entered the 2023 season as one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, and between that prospect billing and his strong debut effort, it’s wholly unsurprising that the Dodgers aren’t inclined to move him in a deal for Cease (or, likely, for just about any potential trade target).
Both the Reds and Dodgers stand as natural trade partners for Cease. Cincinnati has plenty of young talent (e.g. Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson, Graham Ashcraft) but is lacking in more established big leaguers beyond the recently signed Nick Martinez. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will have Walker Buehler on an innings limit in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. Clayton Kershaw is a free agent and will miss at least half the 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Dustin May (flexor surgery, Tommy John revision) and Tony Gonsolin (Tommy John surgery) are also expected to miss some or all of the ’24 campaign.
Cease, 27, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.8MM in 2024 and is controllable via arbitration through the 2025 season. He finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander after notching 184 innings of 2.20 ERA ball with a 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate. The 2023 season saw Cease’s ERA more than double to 4.58, but his strikeout rate (27.4%) remained strong and his 10.1% walk rate was right in line with the prior season. He lost about a mile per hour off his fastball and allowed more hard contact in previous seasons, with his home run rate and average on balls in play both increasing substantially.
Down year notwithstanding, Cease is among the most talented pitchers on the trade market and rival teams are surely intrigued by the idea of a change of scenery that gets him out of the White Sox’ homer-friendly stadium and away from their porous defense. As far as high-end arms on the trade market, he’s also one of very few available with multiple seasons of club control. Each of Bieber, Glasnow and perhaps Corbin Burnes is available for the right offer, but all three members of that trio will reach free agency following the 2024 campaign.
Guardians Expected To Keep 2024 Payroll At 2023 Levels
The Guardians have long run a payroll at or near the bottom of the league, with a payroll in the bottom third of the league in each of the last four seasons and eleven of the last fourteen years per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2023 was no exception to that, as the club’s payroll sat at just $89MM, the sixth-lowest figure in the majors. Zack Meisel of The Athletic reports that the austerity of recent seasons isn’t expected to change in 2024, as the club expects to run a payroll at a similar level next season.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $94MM payroll in 2024 as things stand, meaning that Cleveland essentially has no room for further additions without cutting costs elsewhere on the roster. As Meisel notes, further additions are all but necessary in the outfield if the Guardians hope to compete in 2024 following a 76-86 performance that saw them finish ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Royals in the notoriously weak AL Central. Those struggles can primarily be traced back to the club’s woeful offense, which produced a wRC+ of just 92 in 2024, MLB’s ninth-worst figure. Those offensive struggles, in turn, connect back to a disastrous outfield situation; Cleveland’s outfielders slashed just .253/.312/.344 in 2023, with a 84 wRC+ that narrowly avoids being the worst in the majors thanks to Kansas City’s figure of 82.
With no payroll space remaining and a projected outfield of Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, and Ramon Laureano headed into 2024, Meisel suggests that Cleveland brass may have their hand forced into freeing up payroll space with a trade of longtime ace Shane Bieber or even shopping closer Emmanuel Clase, whose $20MM extension prior to the 2022 season has become one of the league’s best values thanks to back-to-back All Star campaigns the past two seasons. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Bieber for a $12.2MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, while Clase is slated to earn $2.9MM in 2024.
Trading Clase, Meisel notes, would require the Guardians to be “overwhelmed” by an offer for the 25-year-old. That’s hardly a surprise, given the five seasons of affordable club control remaining on the closer’s contract and his resume over the past three seasons, which includes a sterling 1.97 ERA and 110 saves in 131 chances. That being said, it’s worth noting that the Guardians swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire Scott Barlow from the Padres. Though Barlow is coming off a down year split between the Royals and Padres in 2023, the righty was among the better closers in the game for the Royals in 2021 and 2022, with a 2.30 ERA and 3.13 FIP. Speculatively speaking, the addition of Barlow could make the Guardians more amenable to dealing Clase, as they would have a clear internal option for the ninth inning with closing experience lined up to take over for him headed into next season.
Bieber, on the other hand, would not be as difficult to pry away, as Meisel suggests that Bieber’s trade value has depreciated in recent years and the Guardians would be “selling low” on Bieber in any trade. From 2019-22, Bieber was among the league’s most effective starters with a 2.91 ERA and 2.95 ERA across 588 1/3 innings of work. Things took a turn for the worse this year, however, as the 28-year-old made just 21 starts due to struggles with elbow inflammation that left him shut down for much of the summer. What’s more, Bieber’s results were diminished when he was able to take the field: his 3.80 ERA and 3.86 FIP, while still above average, were pedestrian by his standards and he posted a career-worst 20.1% strikeout rate. Those potential red flags haven’t stopped teams from showing interest in Bieber’s services, as at least the Cubs and Reds have both inquired after the right-hander this winter.
That said, with arms such as Dylan Cease, Tyler Glasnow, and Corbin Burnes rumored to be available this offseason, it’s easy to see why Bieber may be a less appealing trade target than the aforementioned names. A strong start to the season from Bieber could substantially improve his stock on the trade market, meaning it could make plenty of sense for the Guardians to hold onto the righty entering the season before re-evaluating at the deadline. Such a plan, however, would likely require the club to get creative in their search for outfield solutions. While the club has a surplus of young infield options, Meisel suggests that the club is reluctant to thin out its depth in that area of the roster.
Meisel does note one potential ray of hope for the Guardians regarding their payroll situation: their broadcasting revenue situation. The Guardians are one of many teams thrust into an uncertain revenue situation by the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, and a report last month indicated the Diamond could drop the Guardians from their broadcasting deal headed into 2024. While that could leave the club without as much as $60MM in broadcast revenue next season, Meisel also notes that the club could find itself with enough additional room in its baseball operations budget to make some minor upgrades to the roster without cutting additional salary as they “gain additional clarity” on their broadcasting situation.
Shane Bieber Reportedly Open To Extension Following Potential Trade
Guardians righty Shane Bieber is one of the more prominent names on the offseason trade market, with the Cubs and Reds among the many teams to check in thus far. Bieber is slated to become a free agent next offseason and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $12.2MM this coming season, giving him the look of an affordable one-year rental for a team on the lookout for rotation upgrades. However, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Bieber is at least open to the idea of signing an extension with a team that acquires him. Presumably, that’d mean he’s open to a long-term deal in Cleveland as well, although it’s not clear that the generally frugal Guardians would be amenable to that after already hammering out nine-figure extensions with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez in recent years.
One could argue that it’s natural for Bieber to take this approach, given that he missed more than two months late in the 2023 season with elbow inflammation. He made it back to the mound and looked healthy in a pair of late-season starts, but he’s seen his velocity dip by about three miles per hour since its peak and has a number of red flags in his profile, including strikeout, walk, swinging-strike, chase and ground-ball rates that have all trended in the wrong direction. There’s some logic to taking the risk-averse approach and locking in a long-term deal this offseason.
On the other hand, it’s far more common for players to spurn extension overtures at this stage of their original club control window — particularly following a trade. Players often want to get a feel for their new organization (coaching staff, teammates, competitive outlook).
Furthermore, while Bieber might not command the type of deal he once looked destined for when he was taking home AL Cy Young honors in 2020, he’s still clearly a talented pitcher. The market for even third/fourth starters has progressed over the past couple years, too, evidenced by contracts like the four-year deals awarded to Taijuan Walker ($72MM) and Jameson Taillon ($68MM). Bieber is only 28 (29 in May) and would turn 30 in the first year of a theoretical free-agent deal (or extension). With any form of bounceback season in terms of health, if not performance, he’d have a case for at least a four-year deal.
It’s rare, although not unprecedented for teams to grant extension windows as a conditional element of a trade. Most recently, the Reds simultaneously acquired and extended Sonny Gray in a trade with the Yankees, although that was four years ago. More likely is a scenario where Bieber is simply traded to another club and the two parties spend the remainder of the offseason discussing a potential long-term deal.
Bieber’s openness to an extension might improve his trade value a bit, but one would imagine that openness would ultimately depend on where he’s traded. Using a pair of teams to which he’s already been connected, it’s easier to see a big-payroll team like the Cubs pony up on a long-term pact than it would be a smaller-payroll club like the Reds, who’ve shied away from long-term deals over the past few offseasons. Cincinnati did extend Hunter Greene, but was was a pre-arb deal that isn’t really comparable to Bieber when he’s at five-plus years of service.
While it’s interesting to hear that any prominent player who’s only a year from the open market is amenable to forgoing that right, it’s simultaneously difficult to imagine it happening. Bieber made only two starts in his return from that months-long stay on the injured list, which isn’t much for a new club to go off of when weighing whether to sign him for on a long-term arrangement. From Bieber’s vantage point, it’d be a surprise to see him sign for anything less than those aforementioned Taillon and Walker deals, given his track record. Prior to the 2023 season, he looked like a candidate for a $100MM+ deal in free agency.
The 2023 season tells another story, though. Bieber’s 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, 47.2% grounder rate, 91.6 mph average fastball and career-low swinging-strike and chase rates (10.5% and 30.6%) all have the look of a mid-rotation arm rather than an ace and are are all reasons to exercise caution. An uptick in velocity or reversal of course in some combination of those declining rate stats next season would go a long ways toward bolstering his stock. Perhaps Bieber and a new team (or the Guardians themselves) could find some kind of middle ground, but his recent injury troubles — he also missed two months with a shoulder strain in 2021 — and diminished performance might make it particularly difficult to find a middle ground.
Reds, Cubs Have Discussed Shane Bieber With Guardians
Former American League Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a year from reaching the open market, and the Guardians have discussed potential trade scenarios involving the 28-year-old righty with the Cubs and Reds, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Other clubs have surely reached out on Bieber’s potential availability as well, and Morosi notes that the Cubs have also inquired on Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, who’s widely known to be available. Cincinnati was also linked to Glasnow just yesterday.
Bieber’s 2023 season was arguably his worst since his 2018 rookie season, though that’s a testament to his overall track record more than an indictment on his ’23 output. Forearm and elbow troubles limited him to 128 innings this past season, but he pitched to a solid 3.80 ERA when healthy enough to take the mound and averaged better than six frames per start.
That said, it’s worth highlighting that Bieber’s status as a former Cy Young winner probably gives him more name recognition and name value among fans than actual trade value among MLB front offices. Solid as his ’23 results were when he was on the active roster, his performance carried plenty of red flags. Bieber’s fastball velocity has steadily declined since that 2020 Cy Young win, and last year’s average of 91.6 mph was nearly three miles slower than during his 2020 peak. Bieber fanned a ridiculous 41.1% of opponents during the pandemic shortened season, but that mark dropped to 33.1% the following year, 25% in 2022 and a below-average 20.1% in 2023.
Bieber’s walk and ground-ball rates remain strong, but neither is quite elite. After posting ridiculous swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates of 17.1% and 37% in 2020, he checked in below the league average in both last year: 10.5% and 30.6%, respectively. Bieber has never held top-of-the-scale rankings in terms of hard contact allowed, but he’s previously missed so many bats that yielding hard contact at average-ish rates didn’t matter. That’s no longer the case, given the lack of punchouts, and last year saw Bieber post career-worst marks in average exit velocity (91.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.2%). Those marks are as rough as they sound; Bieber ranked in the second percentile of MLB pitchers in average exit velocity and the third percentile in hard-hit rate.
Be that as it may, Bieber’s broader track record surely buys him some faith from other clubs, and it’s of course eminently possible that some of those red flags are attributable to health troubles that are now hopefully behind him. It’s a deep free-agent class for pitching, but not every club is going to fill its needs via the open market. Bieber still holds clear trade value, even if teams likely all agree that the 2020 version of the one-time ace probably isn’t going to resurface.
For both the Reds and the Cubs, there’s good sense in pursuing Bieber. Cincinnati boasts an exciting crop of young position players and several talented but yet-unproven rotation candidates. Bieber would give them a veteran anchor to pair with the likes of Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. Elsewhere in the NL Central, the Cubs have an established top three in the rotation (Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Jameson Taillon) but less certainty beyond that veteran trio, with Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks among their still-emerging options.
Adding a steady veteran like Bieber to stabilize things surely holds appeal for either club as they set their sights on a weak NL Central. The Reds, in particular, should have no problem absorbing Bieber’s final year of club control; whereas the Cubs already have more than $178MM in projected payroll, Cincinnati’s 2024 outlay is scarcely more than $50MM right now. Greene and backup catcher Luke Maile are the only guaranteed contracts on the books, and their arbitration class is quite small.
From a bigger-picture standpoint, a trade of Bieber — or at least the discussion of one — should come as no surprise for fans who’ve followed how Cleveland has operated over the years. The Guardians churn out high-end starting pitching arguably better than any club in baseball but never let their top arms reach free agency. Part of the process that has helped Cleveland find continued success despite perennially bottom-of-the-barrel payrolls has been selling high on established starters in exchange for controllable young talent. The team’s unrivaled success in pitching development, paired with those regular influxes of young talent, have kept them competitive in a light AL Central division.
For example, none of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer or Mike Clevinger reached the open market in a Cleveland uniform. Kluber was flipped to the Rangers in a deal netting current closer Emmanuel Clase. Carrasco went to the Mets alongside Francisco Lindor in return for Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario. Bauer brought Franmil Reyes and a Yasiel Puig rental to Cleveland. Clevinger netted several players, headlined by Josh Naylor, pitching prospect Joey Cantillo, infielder Gabriel Arias and righty Cal Quantrill — who was recently traded himself (to the Rockies) on the heels of a down season.
Despite all the star-caliber pitchers who break out in Cleveland, the Guardians have never held onto one long enough to make a qualifying offer and collect a compensatory draft pick. Bieber would be a QO candidate next winter if he stays put, but his age, track record and reasonable $12.2MM projected arbitration salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) should be enough to yield greater value than a potential comp pick in what would be the 2025 MLB draft.
Even as they’ve traded away so many arms, the Guardians haven’t ever felt compelled to backfill the rotation via free agency. The last time they signed a free-agent starter to a big league deal was nearly a decade ago when taking a $4MM flier on then bounceback candidate Gavin Floyd. The last multi-year deal they gave to a free-agent starting pitcher was nearly two decades ago: Paul Byrd.
The 2024 season has a good chance to represent a continuation of those trends. Even if Bieber is traded, Cleveland already graduated three top prospects — Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who all hit the ground running as rookies. Triston McKenzie dealt with an ominous elbow injury but finished the season healthy. If he can avoid further issues, he’s shown the ability to be an upper-echelon starter himself (191 innings, 2.96 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate in 2022). In-house names like Cantillo, Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis could all vie for the fifth spot in the rotation, and it’s eminently possible that a Bieber trade (or another offseason swap) could net Cleveland a potential rotation candidate to join that group.
Guardians To Activate Shane Bieber From Injured List
The Guardians are listing Shane Bieber as the probable starter for tomorrow evening’s matchup with the Orioles. He’ll go up against Baltimore right-hander Dean Kremer.
That indicates that Cleveland will reinstate Bieber from the 60-day injured list tomorrow. As reflected on the MLB.com injury tracker, the club is hoping for Bieber to throw around 80 pitches. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner tossed 64 pitches on Sunday in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus.
Bieber hasn’t pitched in a big league game since July 9. Coming out of the All-Star Break, the Guardians announced he’d been dealing with forearm discomfort. An MRI revealed elbow inflammation that led the club to shut him down entirely for a few weeks. While there was never any suggestion he could require surgery, the issue was serious enough to cost him almost all of the second half.
His return comes too late for Cleveland to make a move in the standings. They’ll be eliminated from postseason contention with their next loss or a Minnesota win. Barring a nine-game win streak to close out the year, they’ll finish with a sub-.500 record. Bieber’s return won’t mean much in the standings, though he’ll get to make two or three starts to hopefully demonstrate a clean bill of health heading into the offseason.
Assuming he’s healthy, Bieber figures to be a popular target in trade discussions. The Guardians have shown a willingness to move quality starters as they get close to free agency, dealing away the likes of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. There was some thought they’d do the same with Bieber this summer, though his injury took that off the table. Cleveland did flip Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay for top first base prospect Kyle Manzardo instead.
Bieber is making just north of $10MM this season. He’ll be due a raise on that sum for what’ll be his final arbitration campaign next year. Bieber is coming off a relative down year by his standards. Prior to the stint on the injured list, he’d turned in a 3.77 ERA with a career-low 19.4% strikeout rate through 19 starts.
Opposing teams will surely still have interest in prying him from Cleveland. It remains to be seen if the offers will be strong enough for the Guardians to make a move. Cleveland figures to make another run at competing in the AL Central. The second-year trio of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen makes for a strong rotation nucleus, but Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie have struggled through injury-plagued 2023 campaigns.
McKenzie could also make it back in the coming days. MLB.com notes that the Guardians are hopeful the righty could take the ball in Sunday’s series finale; the club still lists their probable starter for that game as to be determined. The Guardians already have an opening on the 40-man roster for Bieber after waiving Matt Moore this week. They’d need to create a spot for McKenzie if he comes back this weekend, which could be accomplished by transferring Bibee to the 60-day IL due to his season-ending hip issue.
Quick Hits: Tigers, Pederson, Bieber, McKenzie, Rockies
The Tigers could potentially have a new general manager in place before the end of the season, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports via X. It was almost exactly a year ago that Scott Harris was hired as the club’s new president of baseball operations, though the GM role (effectively Harris’ top lieutenant) has remained vacant, despite an ongoing search and the fact that Detroit has three assistant GMs in Sam Menzin, Rob Metzler, and Jay Sartori. It remains to be seen if the Tigers might promote from within or look to someone from outside the organization to act as Harris’ official second-in-command.
There hasn’t been much news on the GM search or Harris’ hiring preferences, as he said back in June that the process had taken a back seat to more pressing matters, such as preparation for the amateur draft and presumably the trade deadline in short order afterwards. It could also be that Harris has someone in particular in mind who is currently under contract with another organization, and had to wait until closer to the end of the 2023 season to engage in negotiations. Or, since Harris was viewing his first season with the Tigers as an evaluation process on and off the field, he might have a better sense of what he wants in a GM after a year of gauging the club’s pluses and minuses.
More from around the baseball world…
- After two seasons with the Giants, Joc Pederson is eager for a third, telling the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser that “I really like it here. It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” Pederson’s big 2022 campaign led the Giants to issue him a qualifying offer after the season, and Pederson opted to take the one-year, $19.65MM rather than test the market in search of a longer or more lucrative deal. Pederson is again eligible for free agency this winter, and will face a more limited market since his 2023 numbers (.245/.355/.421 with 13 homers over 383 plate appearances) have been more good than great, and Pederson brings little batting value against left-handed pitching or defensive value as a corner outfielder. That said, Pederson also has some of the best hard-contact metrics of any hitter in the league, and since his .373 xwOBA outpaces his .340 wOBA by such a significant margin, there could be multiple teams interested in seeing if he can have better luck in 2024. San Francisco might be such a team, since the Giants’ love of platoons might be create a natural part-time for Pederson.
- Guardians starters Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie each started rehab assignments with Double-A Akron this week, with Bieber’s next outing tentatively slated for tomorrow and McKenzie on Tuesday, as Guards manager Terry Francona told reporters (including Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal). Both pitchers are on the 60-day injured list, as McKenzie has been out since June due to a right elbow sprain and Bieber since July because of right elbow inflammation. With only two weeks left in the regular season, the timing will be tight for either pitcher to make it back, and Cleveland’s dimming hopes at the AL Central title also make it possible that the team could just shut down Bieber or McKenzie out of caution. However, the two right-handers are still aiming to return, since as McKenzie put it, returning after the long IL stint would allow him to “go into the offseason with a calm mind.”
- The Rockies‘ seemingly nonstop flood of pitching injuries has continued today, with Kyle Freeland leaving today’s start after three innings due to what the club later announced as a mild right oblique strain. This came after Colorado already placed right-hander Peter Lambert on the 15-day IL prior to their doubleheader with the Giants, as Lambert is suffering from right biceps tendinitis. Lambert has a 5.36 ERA over 87 1/3 innings this year, after missing most of the previous three seasons due to injuries. Freeland has a 5.07 ERA and he leads the Rox with 155 2/3 innings pitched, though he also previously missed a bit of time on the IL with a minor shoulder issue in July. It is safe to assume that Lambert’s 2023 campaign is over, and Freeland is also probably done for the year unless his oblique strain ends up being very minor.
AL Central Notes: Faedo, Robert, Varland, Bieber
The Tigers restructured their rotation recently, with the club’s current starting five being left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal and Joey Wentz alongside right-handers Matt Manning and Reese Olson. That leaves right-hander Alex Faedo as the odd man out, and as manager AJ Hinch confirmed to reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) recently that Faedo would be moving to the bullpen. Faedo received his first relief assignment last night, striking out one on 13 pitches in a single inning of work.
While Faedo was used as a single-inning reliever last night, Hinch indicated that his longer-term role for the Tigers going forward will be as a multi-inning reliever. Woodbery relays that “scheduled” relief appearances of two or three innings are one possibility for Faedo, as well as piggyback starts alongside Wentz. That duo would be a somewhat surprising combination, considering Faedo’s reverse splits this year; left-handed batters have slashed just .143/.209/.333 in 115 plate appearances against him, while righties have hit a far more impressive .266/.322/.505 in 118 trips to the plate.
Overall this season, Faedo has posted a 4.89 ERA and 5.03 FIP in 57 innings of work in the majors. While he showed promise in his final five starts with the big league club, posting a 2.73 ERA over that timeframe, his control left plenty to be desired over those appearances, with a 12% walk rate against a strikeout rate of just 17.5%. Despite those struggles, Hinch suggested that it was possible Faedo could return to the rotation for a start or two at some point before the end of the season.
More from the AL Central…
- White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. was scratched from yesterday’s lineup against Detroit due to cramping in his right quad. That same issue led Chicago to hold Robert out of the lineup today as well, with MLB.com indicating that Robert could return to game action as soon as tomorrow. That being said, the club plans to exercise caution regarding the health of their superstar outfielder. In a dismal season on the south side of Chicago, Robert has been a major bright spot, slashing .272/.324/.560 with 35 home runs and 17 stolen bases alongside elite defense in center field. Oscar Colas has taken over for Robert in center field while he’s been out of the lineup.
- The Twins are expected to recall right-hander Louie Varland tomorrow, according to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller. Miller adds that Varland is expecting to join Minnesota as a member of the bullpen, a role which is fairly unfamiliar for the 25-year-old hurler. Out of 78 professional games Varland has played since being drafted in 2019, he has started all but six of them, including all 15 of his appearances in the majors, where he sports a career 4.83 ERA and 5.12 FIP after allowing 17 runs in 15 innings across his three most recent big league starts back in June. Varland is expected to take the roster spot of right-hander Cole Sands, who Miller indicates was optioned after tonight’s game against the Rangers.
- Guardians ace Shane Bieber is making progress in his rehab from right elbow inflammation, as MLB.com relays that the right-hander has advanced to throwing all of his pitches during bullpen sessions. As Terry Francona told reporters, if Bieber’s next bullpen goes well, he’ll progress to facing live hitters. The next logical progression after that would be a rehab assignment as Bieber builds back up to a starter’s workload. Bieber will first be eligible to be activated from the 60-day injured list on September 10, but it seems all but assured that Bieber will need longer than the minimum 60 days before returning at this point. That said, the 28-year-old seems to be on pace to return before the end of the season barring any setbacks. Prior to his injury, 2023 was shaping up to be a down season for Bieber, who posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.11 FIP across 19 starts.
Guardians Move Shane Bieber To 60-Day IL, Select Daniel Norris
The Guardians announced a trio of pitching moves, including the selection of Daniel Norris‘ minor league contract. To create room on both the 26-man and 40-man rosters, Cleveland optioned left-hander Tim Herrin to Triple-A, and moved Shane Bieber to the 60-day injured list.
Bieber was already on the 15-day IL with a retroactive placement date of July 12. His new 60-day window still starts from July 12, meaning that the right-hander will now be out of action until at least September 10 while recovering from right elbow inflammation. Earlier reports indicated that Bieber is at least another week away from resuming throwing, and though surgery wasn’t going to be required, the move to the 60-day IL indicates that Bieber still requires plenty of time to recover.
The injury already scuttled any chance that Bieber might be dealt at the trade deadline, as there had been speculation that the Guardians might continue their pattern of moving higher-priced veterans 12-18 months before they reached free agency (Bieber is controlled through the 2024 campaign). At this point, it’s fair to wonder if Bieber’s 2023 season might be over entirely, either in the event of a setback or if the Guards might simply shut him down early if they’re out of the playoff race by mid-September.
Cleveland enters today’s action with a 49-50 record, but the Guardians are still only three games out of first place in the AL Central and 5.5 games back of the last AL wild card slot. Catching up to the Twins might be more a realistic path to the playoffs than leapfrogging other teams in the wild card race, but in either case, the Guardians have to play some much more consistent baseball in order to return to the postseason.
Losing Bieber for an extended amount of time won’t help in that regard, as the Guards will have to lean even heavier on a very young group of starters. With Bieber and Triston McKenzie both on the 60-day IL and Cal Quantrill also injured, Cleveland has three rookies (Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams) backing up Aaron Civale in the rotation. Peyton Battenfield is close to returning from the 60-day IL, though Battenfield is another first-year pitcher.
Norris might factor into this mix after starting 12 of his 18 games with Triple-A Columbus. The southpaw signed a minors deal with Cleveland over the winter and has already had his contract selected once, appearing in a single game for the Guardians last month. Norris was then designated for assignment and outrighted off the 40-man roster, and chose to accept the outright assignment rather than test free agency again.
It may have been a wise decision, as Norris now finds himself back on a big league roster. The Guardians could use Norris as a proper starter, a piggyback starter paired with Battenfield, or perhaps simply as a long relief option out of the bullpen. This versatility could help the Guardians navigate their rotation questions, though Norris’ performance has been very up-and-down over his 10 MLB seasons, and he has a 5.60 ERA over 53 innings in Columbus.
Guardians Place Shane Bieber On 15-Day Injured List
TODAY: Bieber will be shut down from throwing for the next two weeks, MLB.com’s Mandy Bell writes, and will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis. The good news is that Bieber won’t need surgery, as determined following a consultation today with Dr. Keith Meister.
JULY 15: Bieber has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to right elbow inflammatino, with the Guardians calling up righty Michael Kelly from Triple-A in the corresponding move.
JULY 14: Guardians starter Shane Bieber is going for an MRI on his forearm/elbow area, skipper Terry Francona told reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com and Zack Meisel of the Athletic). While he hasn’t been placed on the injured list, he won’t make Monday’s start as scheduled.
Obviously, the seriousness of the issue isn’t yet clear. Francona suggested that Bieber has pitched through some forearm discomfort for a few weeks. That the club wasn’t concerned enough to send him for imaging before today and hasn’t immediately placed him on the IL could suggest they’re not overly concerned.
If imaging reveals anything that’d send Bieber to the IL, it could have serious ramifications for both the playoff picture and the trade market. Cleveland enters the unofficial second half leading the Twins by half a game in the AL Central. Potentially subtracting a pitcher who carries a 3.77 ERA through 117 innings would obviously be a hit to the roster.
Bieber has also been frequently speculated upon as a possible trade candidate. Cleveland has a number of young pitchers — headlined by Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams — who look like quality rotation pieces. A trade of Bieber or (to a lesser extent) Aaron Civale might allow Cleveland to land immediate help for a below-average offense while backfilling the lost innings with a younger pitcher. Bibee and Williams are in the MLB rotation. Allen was recently optioned but seems likely to be recalled with Bieber’s start being skipped.
The 2020 AL Cy Young winner is making just over $10MM this season. He is eligible for arbitration once more before first hitting the free agent market over the 2024-25 offseason.
Shane Bieber Drawing Trade Interest
The trade deadline is still over three weeks away but Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is already drawing interest, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s hardly surprising to see Bieber garnering attention around the league given his situation. He’s established himself as a quality big leaguer, having tossed over 800 innings to this point with a 3.24 ERA. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2020 when he posted a 1.63 ERA in 12 starts.
Beyond his performance, there are other factors that would lead clubs to pick up the phone and call Cleveland. The Guardians have long had a reputation of trading away their players as they get closer to free agency, with their salary increasing and their club control waning. Recent years have seen them ship out Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger under such circumstances. Bieber is making just over $10MM this year and can qualify for one more arbitration raise before he’s slated for free agency after 2024.
The Guards are below .500 with a record of 43-44, but no club is running away with the American League Central division. The Guardians are just a game and a half back of the Twins, who sit atop the group with a 45-43 record. The Guardians are still very much in contention there, though that doesn’t necessarily mean Bieber would be off the table. There are few clear sellers this year and it’s been speculated that there may end up being more trades between contenders, with each trading from an area of surplus to address an area of need.
Despite Zach Plesac being outrighted off the roster and injuries putting each of Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Daniel Espino out of action, the Guardians still have a strong rotation. In addition to Bieber, they have Aaron Civale, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee. Rookie Logan Allen was optioned to the minors when Quantrill came off the injured list but could potentially be recalled after the break now that Quantrill has landed on the IL again. All the aforementioned factors led to Bieber being placed in the #8 spot on MLBTR’s recent list of top deadline trade candidates.
That’s no guarantee Bieber will be moved, as the Guardians could opt to keep him for the stretch run and even for 2024, though they will surely listen to any other club that calls up and expresses interest. It will be fascinating to see exactly how strong that interest is, as Bieber seems to have taken a step back from his dominant performance in previous seasons.
The righty struck out 30.2% of hitters in 2019 and that figured jumped to 41.1% in the shorter sample of the 2020 season. It naturally dropped to 33.1% the year after but has continued sliding, getting to 25% last year and just 19.3% here in 2023. He’s still avoiding walks, getting grounders and generally keeping runs off the board, as shown by his 3.66 ERA this year. However, his 4.13 FIP and 4.44 SIERA suggest he might be lucky to be there, with a .280 batting average on balls in play perhaps helping him out. His velocity is also down, with his fastball averaging 91.3 mph this year compared to the 93-94 range he was at a few years ago.
That puts the Guardians in an tricky spot. If they have designs on trading Bieber like they have done with other players in the past, his value won’t get any higher. They could always delay a trade until the offseason, but they would then be marketing Bieber for just one playoff push instead of the two they can offer now. There’s also the ever-present risk of an injury putting a dent in a pitcher’s value at any point.
But while pulling the trigger now may be the best time to do so in terms of cold-hearted asset management, it would hurt their chances of taking advantage of a weak division here in 2023. The White Sox are disappointing this year but could always reload and have better results next year. The Tigers are showing some signs of life and could be stronger next season as well. Perhaps the decision makers in Cleveland would prefer to try to take advantage of the door that is open in front of them right now.
There will be much to think about in the next few weeks, with the decision undoubtedly to be impacted by the results of the club, the performance of Bieber and the nature of the offers they receive. The trade deadline this year is on August 1.