Latest On Shelby Miller Trade Talks
12:47AM: Other sources tell Wittenmyer that no deal between the two sides is close. Jorge Soler is still a part of trade discussions between the Cubs and Braves (Twitter links).
12:35AM: The Braves and Cubs are close to a deal that would involve righty Shelby Miller going to Chicago and slugging infield prospect Javier Baez headed to Atlanta in the return, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (Twitter link).
Miller has been one of the winter’s most oft-discussed trade candidates, with as many as 20 teams reportedly checking in on his availability. Atlanta has demanded a major return in any deal for the 25-year-old starter, with such names as the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, the Yankees’ Luis Severino and the Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna all being asked about in talks with their respective clubs. The Cubs were one of several teams linked with Miller, with Jorge Soler and Baez both being mentioned as possible trade chips.
Starting Pitching Notes: Miller, Leake, Dodgers
Braves president of baseball operations John Hart says that the club is “absolutely not in the mode” of shopping pitcher Shelby Miller, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (on Twitter). For his part, O’Brien (on Twitter) has a feeling that the Braves have not given up on getting infielder Javier Baez or outfielder Jorge Soler from the Cubs in exchange for Miller. On top of that, a few teams have also reached out with interest in Braves hurler Julio Teheran, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com writes.
Here’s more out of Nashville:
- The D’Backs, Dodgers, and Red Sox are staying in touch with the Braves regarding Miller, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
- A person familiar with Mike Leake‘s talks thinks he could land a five-year deal for $75-80MM, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. To some, that would appear to mark a spike in his market value, though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that Leake could net a five-year, $80MM deal way back in early November.
- Agent Rob Martin told MLBTR (Twitter link) that pitcher Brandon Beachy is “100% healthy” as he seeks his next deal in free agency. Beachy will be prioritizing the best pitching opportunities without any real preference for geographic location. Beachy was designated for assignment by the Dodgers in July before accepting an outright assignment in August. From 2010-13 with Atlanta, he posted a 3.23 ERA, 9.2 K.9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 267 2/3 innings. Durability has been an issue since reaching the Major Leagues, however, as he’s topped 100 innings just once in his career and made 10 starts in a season just twice.
- Chris Young turned down the opportunity to sign a three-year deal elsewhere to return to the Royals on a two-year pact, according to Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star (on Twitter).
- There are five teams in on Justin Masterson, including the Pirates, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter).
- As many as a dozen teams are already showing interest in Henderson Alvarez, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.
- The Tigers and Cardinals both tried to land Jeff Samardzija, according to Heyman (on Twitter). The Tigers, predictably, were out on Shark once they inked Jordan Zimmermann.
Pitching Notes: Lowe, Red Sox, Marlins, O’s, O’Day, Mets, Miller
Free agent righty Mark Lowe is “in active talks with multiple teams” and could be nearing a decision, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. The Mariners have some interest in a reunion, tweets MLB.com’s Greg Johns, though as he notes it’ll take much more than the minor league pact that brought Lowe to Seattle last winter.
Here’s the latest pitching chatter around the league:
- The Red Sox are receiving interest in starters Wade Miley and Joe Kelly as well as Clay Buchholz, Crasnick reports on Twitter. Boston is prepared to “listen to trade pitches” on their arms. Jon Heyman hears the same and notes that the club is interested in adding relievers. (Twitter link.)
- Miley is among the pitchers that could be pursued by the Marlins, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports on Twitter. In free agency, Miami’s targets include Ian Kennedy — as we heard earlier today — as well as Yusmeiro Petit, who’d presumably be a swingman option.
- The Orioles will likely add another pen arm even if they wrap up a deal with Darren O’Day, Crasnick tweets. One possibility is southpaw Tony Sipp, per the report, who figures to draw rather wide interest.
- Speaking of O’Day, the key point of separation between the Orioles and Nationals has been Baltimore’s willingness to guarantee a fourth year, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. The Nats were offering a better AAV, but only over three years.
- The Mets are “keeping an eye” on the top of the still-available relief market, per assistant GM John Ricco (via ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin, on Twitter).
- Some in the Braves organization believe that the team ought to hold onto Shelby Miller, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports. Atlanta is asking both for a young, “impact bat” as well as a “Major League-ready starting pitcher” in trade talks, per the report.
Stark’s Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays
Here are the latest starting pitcher rumors in advance of the winter meetings, courtesy of ESPN’s Jayson Stark.
- Johnny Cueto is the top pitcher on the free agent market, but his earning potential remains unclear. Some insiders are surprised he turned down the six-year, $120MM offer previously extended by the Diamondbacks. As Stark points out, Cueto is sixth among active starters with a 3.30 ERA so he would seemingly justify a serious investment. However, concerns about his health and late-season struggles have executives worried. Per one source, “If you told me that, within 24 hours [of arriving at the meetings], all of the big free-agent starters would be signed except Cueto, I’d believe it.“
- Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
- The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.
- We’ve heard a lot about the Indians pitching depth – namely Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer. Stark and his sources think the club will stand pat this winter. “You’re just shifting around your problems,” said one contact in regard to a hypothetical pitcher-for-hitter swap. The team’s strength is built around their rotation. They may be best served by simply maximizing that advantage.
- With the exception of Chris Archer, the Rays are shopping all of their starting pitchers. That’s par for the course for the Rays who historically have been open to trading anybody to improve the long term outlook of the franchise. Stark specifically mentions Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore as available, but we can probably presume that Erasmo Ramirez is being floated too.
- Stark offers plenty of more notes in his column including the latest on the Yankees, Padres, and the remaining buyers for pitching.
Starting Pitching Notes: Shark, Lackey, Kuma, Shields, Miller, Nova, Fernandez
The Cubs remain interested in a reunion with Jeff Samardzija, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark, but the team may be getting uncomfortable with the level to which his price is rising. Samardzija, who has reportedly received offers of $90MM and $100MM, is of interest to both the Giants and Dodgers, and the team that loses out on the services of Zack Greinke may very well turn to Samardzija, per Stark. Said one executive from a team that has interest in Samardzija: “I don’t know if he gets to nine figures. But if you put the over/under on him at $90 million, I’d go ‘at’ or ‘over.'”
Some more notes on what has been an aggressive and high-priced market for starting pitching thus far…
- As the prices for arms like Samardzija and others rise, a two-year deal for John Lackey is becoming increasingly appealing for the Cubs, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. While the Cubs may indeed have interest in two years for Lackey, it seems reasonable enough to me to believe that interest in him could push the requirement to three years. Lackey will pitch next season at 37, but he’s delivered results that are either on part with or in excess of expectations for younger, second-tier starters and won’t come with as extravagant a price tag as Samardzija, Mike Leake or Wei-Yin Chen.
- Having already completed five trades and signed four free agents — most recently Nori Aoki — the Mariners will turn their focus to re-signing Hisashi Iwakuma, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns. General manager Jerry Dipoto told Johns and other reporters that while he still needs to address utility infielder and determine who will play first base in 2015, his focus will be shifting more to the rotation for the time being. “We are continuing to move along with Kuma and we’ll see where that takes us,” said Dipoto.
- Turning from free agency to the trade side of the starting pitching market, Stark tweeted yesterday that the Padres are hoping to move James Shields without having to eat any money in the deal, citing unnamed clubs that have been in trade talks with San Diego. Not only that, they’re hoping to land a younger shortstop option in the deal. Clearly, that’s a lofty and unlikely goal, as Shields along doesn’t carry that type of value on his own and comes with significant downside given his opt-out clause. If the Padres were willing to take back a sizable contract in exchange for Shields, perhaps the scenario would become more plausible.
- The Padres, though, think the rising price of free agent starters could make the remaining $65MM on Shields’ contract look more appealing (links to Twitter). That may be the case, but Shields certainly isn’t a bargain, and some scouts tell Rosenthal they feel that Shields’s stuff is in decline. And, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweeted yesterday, his opt-out clause makes him a risky target for any club. Shields isn’t a lock to opt out of the deal even with a big 2016 season, per Lin, because he loves living in San Diego. A trade might make him more inclined to re-enter the market if he performs well enough, so a team could be acquiring just one year of him if he performs up to his previous standards. On the other hand — the aforementioned downside — if Shields repeats his 2015 results or struggles even further, then the team would be left with the two years and $44MM on his contract from 2017-18.
- The Rockies like Braves right-hander Shelby Miller quite a bit, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. However, Colorado and Atlanta haven’t discussed a possible swap “in a while,” a source told Saunders. While the Braves are seeking outfield upgrades, an expensive and relatively short-term asset like Carlos Gonzalez wouldn’t hold appeal to the Braves, he writes. Rather, a player like Corey Dickerson and other prospects would probably be Atlanta’s asking price, he continues, adding that the Rox aren’t presently in the Miller derby.
- The White Sox were interested in both Jesse Chavez and Ivan Nova last month, reports George A. King III of the New York Post, but the fact that Chavez is now off the board following a trade to Toronto hasn’t increased Chicago’s interest in Nova. The Yankees have discussed Nova with multiple teams and will continue to market him at the Winter Meetings, though the asking price reported by King — a younger arm with more controllable years — seems too steep unless the Yankees are adding other pieces to the deal.
- The Marlins aren’t shopping ace Jose Fernandez, president of baseball operations Michael Hill tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. Hill said he’s “not sure where that came from” in reference to rumors that Fernandez could be had in trades, but the plan is for Fernandez to front Miami’s rotation next season. Hill said that teams, naturally, ask for Fernandez all the time, just as they did with Giancarlo Stanton prior to his extension. But, that’s to be expected with elite players that are not locked up on contract extensions, he notes, and inquiring teams are informed that Fernandez isn’t for sale.
Latest On Shelby Miller
We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.
One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.
Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.
Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward
ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.
Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler
6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.
Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).
6:40pm: Shelby Miller‘s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.
Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.
Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.
The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
Cafardo’s Latest: Giants, Braves, Gordon, Chapman
Here’s the latest from The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo…
- The Braves are one of multiple teams who have asked the Giants about Joe Panik and Matt Duffy in trade talks but San Francisco isn’t interesting in dealing either young infielder. Panik and Duffy may have come up in discussions with the Braves over pitching, as Cafardo reports the Giants have discussed Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller.
- Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon is generating “a ton of interest” and Miami is at least listening. It would take a controllable, front-of-the-rotation arm to really get the Marlins’ attention, however, and it “seems unlikely” that Gordon would go anywhere. I have to agree that dealing Gordon would be a stunning move even for the Marlins; if anything, the club is far more likely to extend him, as has been noted in recent reports.
- The Reds and Red Sox discussed a trade for Aroldis Chapman, but Cincinnati wanted more from Boston than the Sox eventually sent to the Padres to land Craig Kimbrel. That would represent a stunningly high asking price for a closer who is only under contract through the 2016 season. Kimbrel, by contrast, is owed $25MM through the 2017 season and Boston has a $13MM club option on his services for 2018.
- Andrew Miller is “atop” the Astros‘ list of closer targets and Mark Melancon is also under consideration. We’d already heard about Houston’s interest in acquiring a top reliever earlier today, with Miller’s name included with the likes of Chapman, Brad Boxberger and Ken Giles.
- Speaking of Melancon, the Pirates closer tells Cafardo that he’s keeping an open mind about trade speculation. “I love the Pirates. I love our group of guys and would love to stay here, but I also understand the business of it. Every organization has a different business plan, and if the Pirates feel they need to deal me, then I understand that. Our people haven’t said a word to me about the possibility, so until that changes, I’m assuming I’m starting the year with the Pirates.”
- The Twins are another team looking for relief help and they’ve also received a lot of interest about third baseman Trevor Plouffe. There has been speculation that Plouffe could be moved to make way for Miguel Sano at third base, especially if the Twins come to an agreement with Byung-Ho Park.
- Though Brett Gardner‘s name has surfaced in trade talks, it’s “not a slam dunk” that the Yankees would part with him since he’s a clubhouse leader. As CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman did yesterday, Cafardo also downplays the idea of a Gardner-for-Starlin Castro trade, noting that the Yankees would only trade Gardner if they got a starting pitcher back.
- Five general managers told Cafardo that they wouldn’t take Hanley Ramirez in a trade even if the Red Sox covered at least half of Ramirez’s remaining salary. Ramirez is owed $66MM through 2018 and he has a $22MM vesting option for 2019, so even at a reduced rate, that’s still a hefty price for a player coming off such a rough season on and off the field.
- Cafardo feels the Cubs and Giants have the best chance at signing John Lackey, who wants to remain in the National League. The Cardinals have also “kept their toes in the water” for his services. The Red Sox have checked in on Lackey but are more focused on landing an ace starter.
- John Boggs, Trevor Cahill‘s agent, said his client looks to be a starter again “but he would accept a bullpen spot if he doesn’t secure a starting job.”