Trade Notes: Giles, Cubs-Braves Talks, Ozuna, Lind
While the Phillies are downplaying the possibility of trading Ken Giles this offseason, there’s an expectation among other teams that he’ll be dealt either this winter or in July, according to ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Stark heard that the asking price on Giles is steep — at least two or three high-ceiling prospects — and that the Phillies are willing to hang onto him if their price isn’t met. My first thought upon seeing the Craig Kimbrel trade return was to wonder what type of haul the Phillies could receive in exchange for Giles. While Giles hasn’t established himself to the level that Kimbrel has, of course, he’s still earning just over $500K per season, won’t be arbitration-eligible for two more years and can be controlled through 2020. The Phillies are within their rights to seek a huge return.
Here’s more on the trade market:
- The Cubs and Braves have had talks regarding Atlanta’s controllable, MLB-level pitching, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). That would appear to involve Julio Teheran and/or Shelby Miller, as it’s hard to imagine Chicago having interest in any other Braves starters for immediate MLB jobs. Rosenthal writes that the Cubs are “doing background work” on somewhere around a dozen rotation options, while colleague Jon Morosi has said that the team is in contact with nearly the same number of free agent starters. Meanwhile, the Braves are looking to get young position players back if they ship out arms, per Rosenthal.
- As we’ve heard suggested previously, the Marlins are asking other clubs for young pitching in return for outfielder Marcell Ozuna, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com reports (links to Twitter). It’s always seemed likely that Ozuna would be dealt, as MLBTR explained in its post on the club’s offseason outlook, and one of Crasnick’s sources confirmed that the sentiment is held around the league. “I’d be surprised if they keep him,” said an anonymous executive. “Loria clearly can’t stand the guy and everybody knows it.”
- There’s “lots of activity” on Brewers first baseman (and prospective DH) Adam Lind, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. The righty-masher could end up being the next veteran asset shipped out of Milwaukee, says Rosenthal, and that certainly wouldn’t be surprising.
Giants, Dodgers Have Expressed Interest In Shelby Miller
The Giants and Dodgers have “checked in” on Braves righty Shelby Miller, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reports on Twitter. We already heard recently of interest from another NL West club, the Diamondbacks, though those talks apparently did not progress (Twitter link).
It’s not entirely clear at this point what level of interest the Braves have in dealing the 25-year-old righty. He re-emerged last year in Atlanta after being acquired in the Jason Heyward trade, contributing 205 1/3 innings of 3.02 ERA pitching with 7.5 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9. MLBTR projects Miller to earn $4.9MM in his first of three trips through arbitration.
The Braves have already made clear that they’ll trade just about anyone on their roster, after a major sell-off last year and recent send-off of shortstop Andrelton Simmons. GM John Coppolella has said that the team will not trade first baseman Freddie Freeman, but it seems plausible to think that any other players could be had for the right price.
Young pitching has clearly been the focus of Atlanta’s acquisition efforts thus far, and the club has built an impressive stable of arms. Most recently, high-upside hurler Sean Newcomb headlined the Simmons swap. And a number of other pitchers were already installed in the upper reaches of the farm last winter.
On the surface, then, it might be asked why the Braves would have any interest in dealing players such as Miller and Julio Teheran, both of whom are affordable, well-regarded, younger pitchers. (You could say the same of already-dealt lefty Alex Wood.) The answer, perhaps, is that the value of these kinds of pitchers is arguably highest right now, when the club is simply not ready to compete, making it an opportune time to cash them in for assets that will be of greater utility down the line. It’s also worth noting that, as with Simmons, both Miller and Teheran will enjoy fairly significant raises over the coming seasons.
Both San Francisco and Los Angeles, of course, are said to be hunting for significant rotation upgrades this winter. The division rivals have both had their share of injuries in the rotation and seek multiple new arms. For the opposite reasons that might motivate the Braves to deal a player like Miller, it’s certainly plausible to imagine both clubs having interest in the concept of sacrificing near-future value for a mid-prime major leaguer who is at least controllable for a few seasons at a reasonable rate of pay. That’s all the more true, of course, given that both the Giants and Dodgers are said to be weighing significant free agent pitching investments.
It’s obviously not worth speculating too much about what kind of return might entice the Braves, but there’s little question that both prospective trade partners have the assets needed if the motivation is there. And it’s worth remembering that the Atlanta front office has proven itself highly creative in structuring deals. Of course, it remains to be seen whether there’s a match to be made with these — or other — teams.
Coppolella: “We Are Not Trading Freddie Freeman”
The Braves have come under quite a bit of fire, with many stating that the team is tanking in order to accelerate its rebuild in the wake of last week’s Andrelton Simmons trade. Freddie Freeman‘s name has come up in frequent trade speculation over the past week, Braves GM John Coppolella adamantly denied to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the Braves will even entertain the notion of trading their first baseman.
“I cannot make it any more clear: We are not trading Freddie Freeman,” Coppolella said. “We are not. I’d give my right arm before we trade Freddie Freeman. It is not happening.”
While Twitter skeptics will undoubtedly have their fun by responding to that quote saying Freeman will be traded by this coming weekend, that type of on-record, absolutist statement is rare for a top-ranking baseball ops exec to make. (For instance, there’s a misconception that A’s president Billy Beane said last offseason that he wouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, but the comments pertaining to Donaldson were made by an anonymous team official.)
Of course, a team could still completely bowl the Braves over with a trade proposal for Freeman that would put Coppolella and president of baseball operations John Hart in a tough position, but the strong likelihood in light of a statement of this magnitude is that Freeman will indeed remain in Atlanta. The reason for hanging onto Freeman, Coppolella explains, is that the “tanking” crowd has a fundamental misunderstanding of the Braves’ intentions.
“If we truly were going to tank, we wouldn’t have had [Erick] Aybar come back in the [Simmons] trade,” said Coppolella. “If we were trying to tank, we wouldn’t have signed A.J. Pierzynski. If we were trying to tank, we would have traded [Cameron] Maybin at the deadline last year, and we had plenty of offers.”
Coppolella maintains that the Braves strongly want to win in the near future and urges critics not to judge the results of the trades immediately upon their completion but rather to wait a couple of years. The Atlanta GM acknowledges that his club won’t win 100-plus games in 2016 but voices a strong belief that the team can win more next season than it did in 2015.
While Coppolella is adamant that there’s a method to all of the Braves’ perceived madness and staunchly rejects the idea of trading Freeman, Nightengale does write that further trades from Atlanta could be on the horizon. The team still hopes to shed the contracts of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn — two players acquired to accelerate the alleviation of the financial burden that Chris Johnson‘s contract had presented — and a strong offer for Maybin could pry him away from Atlanta as well.
Likewise, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reported tonight that the Diamondbacks and Braves had discussions about Shelby Miller, but the D-Backs balked at the asking price, which Rosenthal says would’ve come from Arizona’s big league roster and could have been standout center fielder A.J. Pollock (links to Rosenthal on Twitter).
Extension Candidate: Shelby Miller
Signing young players to extensions has been the backbone of John Hart’s long career as a baseball executive. Since taking over the Braves last year, Hart has primarily focused on acquiring new young talent for the rebuilding club rather than locking up existing players. Now that some new pieces are in place, though, Hart and GM John Coppolella will surely look into extending some players that project to be part of the next Braves winning team.
Shelby Miller may well be at the front of that list, as the right-hander is coming off a very solid (albeit unusual) 2015 season. Miller posted a 3.02 ERA, 7.5 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB rate in his first year in Atlanta, tossing a career-high 205 1/3 innings and reaching his first All-Star team. Unfortunately for Miller, these numbers didn’t translate into many wins since he received a near-record low amount of run support (2.64 runs per game) from the anemic Braves offense. This lack of support culminated in an astounding 24-start winless stretch that saw Miller go 0-16 despite a solid 3.83 ERA over that stretch.
While “baseball card stats” are a big part of the arbitration process, Miller’s rough 6-17 record shouldn’t hurt him too much as he enters his first year of eligibility this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors projects Miller will earn a healthy $4.9MM salary in 2016, and the Braves could look to get some cost certainty over Miller’s two arb years and possibly even a free agent year or two.
A note about that $4.9MM figure: it would actually set a new record for a starting pitcher in his first year of arbitration eligibility, topping Dontrelle Willis‘ $4.35MM figure from 2006. Last year, Matt Swartz wrote about how that $4.35MM record has somewhat unexpectedly stood the test of time, though MLBTR’s projections have three pitchers beating the mark this winter — Matt Harvey at $4.7MM, Miller at $4.9MM and Dallas Keuchel at $6.4MM.
As we see from the MLBTR Extension Tracker, four starters with 3+ years of service time have signed extensions since the end of the 2012 season. (I feel comfortable cutting it off there since Kyle Kendrick and Clayton Kershaw aren’t ideal comparables as, respectively, a Super Two player and a reigning Cy Young Award winner.) Let’s see how Miller compares to these four pitchers using extension size, their MLBTR arbitration projection, notable stats and ERA predictors…
Mat Latos: Two years/$11.5MM before age-25 season, $4.6MM arbitration projection. 639 IP, 3.41 ERA, 8.42 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 43.7% ground ball rate, 11.5 fWAR (3.47 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 3.59 SIERA)
Wade Miley: Three years/$19.25MM (with $12MM option for 2018) before age-28 season, $4.3MM projection. 638 2/3 IP, 3.79 ERA, 7.03 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 48.6% ground ball rate, 7.4 fWAR (3.80 FIP, 3.72 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA)
Lance Lynn: Three years/$22MM before age-28 season, $5.4MM projection but it was an unusual situation, as noted earlier in Matt Swartz’s piece. 616 IP, 3.46 ERA, 8.75 K/9, 3.26 BB/9, 44.4% ground ball rate, 10.5 fWAR (3.34 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 3.65 SIERA)
Miller: Heading into age-25 season, $4.9MM projection. 575 1/3 IP, 3.22 ERA, 7.56 K/9, 3.24 BB/9, 42.3% ground ball rate, 6.9 fWAR (3.82 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.16 SIERA)
Jhoulys Chacin: Two years/$6.5MM before age-25 season, $1.6MM projection. 411 1/3 IP, 3.68 ERA, 7.57 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 49.7% ground ball rate, 5.0 fWAR (4.17 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA)
Miller just turned 25 last week, putting him in the Latos/Chacin age bracket. Miller is clearly a step behind Latos and Lynn WAR-wise (they have an edge in strikeouts and innings) and you can make a case that Miley was also a better pitcher than Miller at this stage of both pitchers’ careers.
Since Miller is three years younger than Lynn and Miley were at the time of their extensions, however, his ultimate price tag is going to be bigger. If he keeps up his current form through his arbitration years, hitting the open market as a durable and productive 28-year-old arm could mean something in the range of five (or even six) years in the $85MM range.
With this in mind, would Miller even be interested in an extension? He already banked one nice payday when he signed for a $2.875MM bonus with the Cardinals after being drafted in 2009, and he’ll earn something in that $4.9MM range next year. Miller is on pace to get healthy raises in his final two arbitration years anyway, so he could very well decide to bet on himself with an eye towards free agency and avoid a long-term commitment. If the CAA client betters his current form and makes the leap from very good pitcher to full-blown ace, Miller would be costing himself some money by locking himself into an extension now.
The Braves would have to make it worth Miller’s while, therefore, for him to sign away one or two of his free agent years. A straight club option for 2019 likely wouldn’t be enough unless it had an easily-reachable vesting option. Corey Kluber‘s extension with the Indians could be a model in this regard. The two club option years that cover what would’ve been Kluber’s first two free agent seasons can rise in value by up to $4MM based on performance escalators, turning a potential extra $27.5MM for Kluber into as much as $35.5MM over those two seasons.
Lynn’s extension paid him $7MM in 2015 and he’s owed $7.5MM in each of the next two years, while Miley’s deal escalated from $4MM last season to $6MM in 2016 and $8.75MM in 2017. If we mark Miller for $4.9MM this season, it would make sense for Atlanta to boost his salary in 2016-17 once Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn are (in all likelihood) fully off the books. So at something like $4.9MM in 2016, $7.4MM in 2017 and $9.5MM in 2018, that gets Miler to $21.8MM over three years. If there’s a 2019 club option, I would guess it would have to be in the $13MM range and, like Kluber’s contract, subject to rise via escalator bonuses.
Unlike Keuchel and Harvey (his fellow would-be arbitration record-breakers), Miller hasn’t quite shown that he’s a frontline ace. Don’t forget, however, that Miller is just a few years removed from being a consensus top-10 prospect, so it’s very possible that his best is yet to come. Even at Miller’s current level of production, a four-year deal that could max out in the $38-$39MM ballpark isn’t a bad price to pay for a 25-year-old who’s averaged 187 innings a year since 2013. It could end up being yet another canny John Hart extension if and when the Braves begin to turn things around.
Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images
Quick Hits: Harang, Mesoraco, Grandal, Jenkins
Veteran right-hander Aaron Harang may soon join his ninth major league franchise, writes Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Harang’s career trajectory includes a dominant, stable peak with the Reds followed by a multi-season reinvention with a handful of clubs. With the Phillies in rebuild mode, Harang is a prime trade candidate. His 1.82 ERA, 6.67 K/9, and 1.97 BB/9 would represent an upgrade for any club. However, it’s worth noting his 4.12 xFIP. Harang has allowed just two home runs despite a high fly ball rate. Kepner offers more detail about Harang’s transformation from power pitcher to crafty veteran.
- Reds catcher Devin Mesoraco has experienced a setback with his left hip impingement, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Mesoraco indicated that this week would be “pivotal” in deciding if the condition required surgery. He hasn’t been in the lineup the last two days, but he might be available to pinch hit tomorrow. To this point, club and player have attempted to avoid the surgical option.
- Dodgers catcher Yasmany Grandal has a “mild concussion,” writes Anthony Witrado of MLB.com. Last night, Grandal was hit in the jaw by a Yangervis Solarte backswing, and he took a Matt Kemp foul ball off the mask. The club expects him to be ready to resume baseball activities in a few days. He may only require the minimum seven day stay on the disabled list.
- Shelby Miller has done well to make the Braves look good for trading Jason Heyward. However, Tyrell Jenkins is doing his best to improve the return for the Braves. The 22-year-old righty has performed strongly in Double-A. Scouts and players credit him with excellent makeup. He tore his lat in 2012 and 2013 which has delayed his development as a prospect. He’s now fully healthy for the first time in years and reaching 96 mph on the gun. Although he has a shiny 2.94 ERA, his 5.71 K/9 and 3.81 BB/9 could stand to improve.
Heyman’s Latest: Hamels, Astros, Hinch, Greinke
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman touched on many topics in his latest “Inside Baseball” column, and since we’ve already focused on Heyman’s notes about the Brewers, let’s look at some of his other hot stove info from around the league…
- The Astros will be looking to add one or even two starting pitchers, though Cole Hamels is “too pricey” for them, according to one team source. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored the case for Houston going after the Phillies southpaw, and 42.44% of MLBTR readers polled thought that the Astros should indeed pursue Hamels.
- Rival executives aren’t bothered by Hamels’ sub-par performance this season since all of this trade speculation is assumed to be impacting his work. Executives “seem to be split on” whether the Phillies are making the right move in holding out for a blue chip prospect or two in exchange for Hamels, or if they should just be looking to get his big salary off the books for a lower return of young talent.
- A.J. Hinch’s deal with the Astros is a three-year contract with a club option for 2018. The exact dollar figure isn’t known but Heyman reports that the average annual value is less than $1MM, which could end up being a bargain given how Houston has thus far played under Hinch’s management.
- While Zack Greinke is expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, Heyman doubts he’ll leave the Dodgers since they certainly have the money to sign him to a new deal.
- One scout suggests that Javier Baez might need “a change of scenery” to get back on track. Baez struck out a whopping 95 times in 229 plate appearances with the Cubs last season, and only has a .755 OPS at the Triple-A level this year. Baez is only a year removed from being considered an elite-level prospect, so while it seems early to consider trading him, Chicago is already deep in young middle infield talent.
- The Rangers are willing to deal Shin-Soo Choo, rival executives believe. This is no surprise given Choo’s huge contract and underwhelming performance in Texas, though obviously those same issues will make dealing him a tall order. Heyman notes that the Yankees were interested in Choo when he was a free agent two winters ago, though even if Choo turns it around, I’m not sure I see New York taking on a big contract when they already have a pretty full outfield.
- The Cardinals “will rue the day they made that trade” of Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jorden Walden, in the words of one scout. Heyman feels this is a bit of a stretch, even though Miller has been outstanding for the Braves and Heyward has struggled for the Cards (and Walden is on the DL).
- Veteran Andruw Jones isn’t yet planning to retire, though he won’t play in 2015. Jones has played in Japan for the last two seasons and expressed interest in a return to Major League Baseball this winter, drawing interest from at least two teams, including the Indians. According to Heyman, Jones turned down minor league contract offers from multiple teams.
NL Notes: Miller, Jenkins, Gwynn, Scutaro
Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins had varying reactions to being traded to the Braves in the Jason Heyward deal, Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Miller, who learned he’d been dealt before learning which team had traded for him, was apprehensive at first, but ultimately happy to learn that he was heading to Atlanta. Jenkins, a former Cardinals first-round pick, was “upset” to be leaving that organization, although he eventually came around to the idea that the Braves must really want him to acquire him in a trade for a player of Heyward’s caliber. Both Miller and Jenkins credit Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright with helping them as pitchers. Miller says Wainwright encouraged him to throw a sinker (although it wasn’t until Justin Masterson showed him a grip he liked that he actually started using it). Jenkins, meanwhile, credits Wainwright with helping him with his delivery. Here are more notes from around the National League.
- Free agent outfielder Tony Gwynn Jr. is hoping to find a new team for 2015, his agent told MLB Network Radio (via a tweet from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports). Gwynn, 32, hit .154/.262/.190 in 127 plate appearances with the Phillies in 2014, also appearing in 20 games (and hitting significantly better) for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Gwynn isn’t likely to provide much offense, but he’s provided good defensive and baserunning value in the past.
- In March, free agent infielder Marco Scutaro will know more about whether he can continue his career after having back surgery, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes in a piece we’ve linked to elsewhere today. The Giants released Scutaro last week even though he still had one year left on his three-year, $20MM deal. He had fusion surgery in December.
John Hart On The Heyward/Miller Trade
During a conference call with reporters, Braves president of baseball operations John Hart discussed several aspects of today’s blockbuster trade that saw Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to go to the Cardinals in exchange for right-handers Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. It was “very difficult” for the Braves to trade a homegrown product like Heyward, Hart said, yet it was a move the team felt it had to make “to help not only in the short term but also in the long term.”
With Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang in free agency and Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen both recovering from Tommy John surgery, Atlanta entered the offseason with a clear need for starting pitching. There wasn’t much help coming from the farm, given how Hart described the Braves as “woefully thin [pitching-wise] in our minor league system.” The St. Louis deal, therefore, checked a couple of boxes for the Braves as they were able to add a quality prospect in Jenkins and a young arm who’d experienced some Major League success in Miller. The fact that Miller isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2018 season made him especially attractive, Hart said.
“Going into this winter we’d lost over 400 innings in our rotation and we didn’t have any players coming up in our system that were ready to provide those types of innings. We really needed two starting pitchers. As we went through the meetings, we went out there with the idea of how do we acquire starters. We sampled the waters, we talked to literally every club out there and weren’t looking for a one-year sort of fix. Shelby Miller was one of the younger pitchers that we had identified as a guy who could step in and help us right now and that we would be able to control for a number of years.”
Miller’s status as a piece for both the present and future gives the Braves “the flexibility to go either way” in deciding if other offseason moves will be geared towards next season’s club or perhaps for a few years down the road.
“We’ll take a good look at our competition in our division, take a good look at our club, take a look at what we can do in free agency to allow us to compete and examine other opportunities that might come our way. I don’t think this trade sets us [in a direction] either way. It provides us with the opportunity to look at everything independently….It certainly gives us some options for 2015 but there’s certainly a big picture in play.”
One of those big-picture questions involves Justin Upton, who (like Heyward) only has one year remaining on his contract before free agency. There has been speculation that Atlanta could look to deal both of its corner outfielders this winter, and while Hart said “there is absolutely a legitimate chance” Upton is a Brave in 2015, he also said there hadn’t been any serious discussion of a contract extension.
“There’s nothing definitive as we look to go forward, obviously. We’re going to continue to explore a lot of avenues with what we do with the ballclub. As we sit here today, there’s certainly a good chance Justin is back with us next year….I’ve had conversations [about an extension] but they have not been anything in depth so it would be unfair for me to comment much on Justin in that regard. We’ll certainly continue to talk with his agent but I don’t really have a definitive answer as of yet.”
Heyward was guaranteed $8.3MM in 2015, so the trade also frees up some salary space. This doesn’t mean the Braves will be in the running for the likes of Max Scherzer or James Shields (“We’re not looking to give up draft picks or financially handcuff this club,” Hart said), yet the extra payroll allows the club to explore both the free agent market and the trade market for further upgrades.
Despite Heyward’s pending free agent status after the 2015 season, the Braves “didn’t go out with the idea that Jason was going to be the guy that we used to get our starting pitching,” and that the club “sorted through a lot of different options before” deciding on this deal. Last winter, Heyward signed a two-year extension that covered his two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons, and this modest contract stood out amidst much longer-term extensions given to Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel.
When I asked Hart if there had been any recent negotiations with Heyward about an extension, Hart gave the impression that there hadn’t been any further talks since last offseason.
“He wanted a two-year deal and wasn’t interested in a long-term extension unless the dollars were maybe beyond where the club certainly wanted to go. We had a strong feeling he was going to go on the market. That’s what he wanted to do. We wanted to protect ourselves and position ourselves better. If we elect, next year, to be one of 30 [teams] that compete for Jason on the market then that’s what we’ll do.”
Braves, Cardinals Trade Jason Heyward For Shelby Miller
The Cardinals have acquired right fielder Jason Heyward and right-hander Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for righty Shelby Miller and pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins, the teams announced.
A blockbuster in every sense of the word, the Cardinals will acquire one of the game’s most valuable outfielders in Heyward and an excellent setup man in Walden. Heyward just turned 25 in August yet already has five full Major League seasons under his belt. His offensive game hasn’t developed to the superstar level that many had expected, though he still owns a lifetime .262/.351/.429 batting line. His .269/.335/.479 batting line and 27 homers in 2012 give an idea of the power upside that Heyward brings to the table, however.
Where Heyward truly shines, however, is with the glove, as evidenced by career UZR and DRS marks of +74.1 and +97, respectively (UZR/150 pegs him at +17.6). That excellent glove paired with a solid bat has led Heyward to be valued at 4.3 fWAR and 4.9 rWAR per season throughout his career. There’s little doubt that Heyward is an MVP-caliber talent, although to realize that potential he would likely need to return to his 2012 form at the plate while maintaining his stellar defensive work.
Heyward is only under control for one more season and will earn $7.8MM in 2015, but Walden is a bit more of a long-term asset for the Cardinals, as he can be controlled through the 2016 season. Projected to earn $3MM in 2015, the 27-year-old Walden posted a 2.88 ERA with 11.2 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate for the Braves last season. Armed with a fastball that averages roughly 96 mph, he should give manager Mike Matheny yet another hard-throwing option to pair with the likes of Trevor Rosenthal at the end of the St. Louis bullpen.
In Miller, the Braves have acquired at least four years of control over a high-upside arm that looked to be on the verge of stardom for much of 2013 before a rough finish to the season and a step backwards in 2014. Miller frequented top prospect lists for his entire minor league career after being selected 19th overall in 2009, with Baseball America ranking him as highly as sixth in the game heading into the 2013 campaign. That season, he posted a brilliant 3.06 ERA with 8.8 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 38.4 percent ground-ball rate in 173 1/3 innings. He saw his strikeouts dip late in the season though and was curiously a non-factor in the 2013 playoffs, leading many to speculate that he was either injured or simply out of gas after posting a career-high in innings pitched.
Miller maintained his velocity in 2014, but he displayed some signs of control issues that caused his ERA to jump to 3.74 (while FIP and SIERA pegged him at 4.54 and 4.60, respectively). For one, Miller’s BB/9 rate jumped to 3.6. But looking beyond that, his first-pitch strike rate dropped about two percent, and his opponent contact rate for pitches in the strike zone jumped from 85.6 percent to 90 percent, suggesting that he struggled to command the ball within the zone. Nonetheless, Miller’s upside is sky-high, and the Braves had a clear need in the rotation with both Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang hitting the free agent market. Both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy are recovering from their second Tommy John surgery, leaving Atlanta with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Alex Wood as rotation candidates, perhaps along with swingman David Hale.
Jenkins, 22, isn’t simply a throw-in for the Braves, either. The Cards drafted Jenkins 50th overall in 2010, and the right-hander cracked BA’s Top 100 prospect list following the 2011 season — ranking 94th. Touted for his off-the-charts athleticism, Jenkins has seen his prospect star dim a bit since that time due to shoulder surgery, though he did return midway through 2014 and post a 3.28 ERA in 74 innings in the Class-A Advanced Florida State League. BA ranked him 17th among Cardinals prospects heading into 2014, noting that his fastball sits 93-96 mph when healthy and adding that he features an improved curveball as well.
The trade fills a need for both clubs, although the circumstances in which St. Louis came to have a need for a right fielder are of course tragic. It’s been difficult and felt inappropriate at times to look at the tragic death of Oscar Taveras and his girlfriend through a baseball lens, but many have wondered if is untimely loss would lead the Cardinals to look outside the organization for outfield help. MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth noted in his Offseason Outlook for the Cards that such measures could be necessary, and the path that the team has taken will improve the team in 2015, even if the trade is unfortunately linked to tragedy.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Cardinals, Pirates Making Strongest Bids For Lester
Jon Lester has been scratched from his scheduled start tonight — a clear indicator that the Red Sox are looking to deal their ace. It briefly looked like the Orioles were close to a deal, but while those talks are serious, the deal isn’t close yet. Here’s the latest…
- The Cardinals and Pirates are making the strongest bids for Lester at the moment, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report (Twitter link). The Dodgers also remain involved.
Earlier Updates
- In a full article, Heyman writes that the A’s are the mystery team that has stepped into the Lester bidding. Nothing is close between the two sides at the moment, however.
- Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that a mystery team is becoming more involved.
- Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio reports that the Athletics are in on Lester.
- Via WEEI’s Alex Speier (on Twitter), manager John Farrell expects Lester to be in uniform with the Red Sox today.
- The Cardinals‘ acquisition of Justin Masterson doesn’t necessarily take them out of the running for Lester, sources tell Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The Cards could still acquire Lester, though it may cost them Shelby Miller, Morosi adds in a second tweet.
- The Marlins aren’t entirely out of the Lester sweepstakes, an AL executive familiar with the negotiations tells Juan C. Rodriguez of the Miami Sun-Sentinel. However, the Marlins won’t part with top prospect Andrew Heaney in a Lester deal (or a deal for any rental player).
- The Cardinals and Dodgers are the two teams that are most aggressively competing for Lester’s services, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. They’re also the most aggressive clubs on David Price, though it’s far from a given that the Rays will move their own left-handed ace. Heyman hears similar things to yesterday’s reports regarding the Brewers and Orioles and says neither is in the mix at this point.
- An NL GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he thinks the Cardinals, Pirates, Dodgers and Mariners are the primary suitors for Lester heading into Wednesday (Twitter link).