Pitcher Notes: S. Miller, Dodgers, Storen, Boxberger
The Diamondbacks made one of the offseason’s most criticized moves when they sent a significant haul of young talent to Atlanta for right-hander Shelby Miller. One month into the season, the deal looks even worse for the Diamondbacks than its detractors thought it did at the time. Two of the players they gave up, righty Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, have gotten off to impressive starts in the Braves organization. Miller, meanwhile, threw 19 2/3 innings in April and yielded 19 earned runs while walking one fewer hitter (15) than he struck out (16). Regarding Miller’s early difficulties, D-backs general manager Dave Stewart told MLB Network Radio (Twitter link) that expectations are weighing down the 25-year-old. “Shelby Miller is really just feeling some pressure of the trade,” Stewart said.
Here’s the latest on a few more pitchers from around baseball:
- Blue Jays reliever Drew Storen‘s horrid April (eight innings, 14 hits, nine earned runs) won’t deter John Gibbons from continuing to rely on him, the manager told Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. “I plan on just throwing him out there. You’ve got to. Otherwise you’re not very good if he’s not a key guy. The good ones, they all learn how to survive and make adjustments,” Gibbons said. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Storen’s average fastball velocity fell from 94 mph last year to 91.9 in April. On the bright side, he struck out seven batters against just one walk during the season’s first month.
- Cuban right-hander and offseason Dodgers signing Yaisel Sierra made his U.S. debut Saturday in a Single-A start and struck out seven hitters in four innings, though he allowed eight base runners (six hits, two walks) and three runs, according to Pete Marshall of the San Bernardino Sun. Sierra’s fastball sat in the low 90s and topped out at 94, which is the normal range for the 24-year-old. “I wasn’t good, I wasn’t bad,” he said of his performance.
- Dodgers left-hander Alex Wood had his best start of the year in a 5-1 loss to the Padres on Friday, throwing seven innings of five-hit, one-run ball while striking out nine and walking one. Wood’s encouraging outing came after a few days of working on a mechanical adjustment, writes Jack Baer of MLB.com. Wood’s delivery became easier to repeat, leading to better command, as a result of lowering his foot during his stride. “When I stride out, my foot off the ground has been fairly higher than it has been in the past,” he said. “It’s something that I thought was the last piece of the puzzle, in terms of my timing and getting my consistency back.” Wood’s performance against the Padres dropped his season ERA from 6.00 to 4.82 and increased his K/9 from a paltry 5.1 to 6.75.
- Rays closer Brad Boxberger continues making progress in his recovery from core muscle repair surgery on March 17 and should return to the majors later this month after a rehab assignment, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Boxberger went 41 of 47 on save opportunities last season and put up a 3.71 ERA, 10.57 K/9 and 4.57 BB/9 in 63 innings.
Quick Hits: Granderson, Molina, Braun, Capps
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs provides his ten favorite transactions of the winter thus far, with the Braves‘ haul in the Shelby Miller trade topping the list. For an additional look back at the market action that’s already in the books, Steve Adams and I discussed a few under-the-radar acquisitions that we liked in the most recent edition of the MLBTR Podcast.
Here are a few more notes as camp approaches:
- Upon arriving at Spring Training today, Mets outfielder Curtis Granderson told reporters, including ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, that team doctors have told him that his surgically repaired thumb is “all good to go.” Granderson went under the knife in November to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb and spent about a month and a half in a brace, but he appears to be mostly back up to speed now. As Rubin notes, Granderson is again projected to be the Mets’ primary leadoff hitter, though his struggles against left-handed pitching would seem to create a reasonable opportunity to get Juan Lagares into the lineup.
- Likewise, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina has had his cast removed and is beginning to strengthen his own thumb, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch writes. The veteran’s importance to his club is hard to overstate, and he says he’s going to try to be ready by Opening Day. He was delayed when the injured digit required a second surgery, so a full recovery by the start of the season may be a big ask.
- The Brewers are weighing a move of Ryan Braun back to left field, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. It seems as if the organization will weigh several options, but getting Domingo Santana and his live arm into right field would appear to have some appeal.
- Right-handed reliever Matt Capps is preparing a comeback bid, agent Paul Kinzer tells Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The former Pirates, Nationals, and Twins closer hasn’t worked in the bigs since 2012 while struggling with health issues. He did not appear in the regular season at all last year after spending camp with the Braves.
NL East Notes: Freeman, Peterson, Swanson, Groome, Storen
The Braves concluded their final FanFest at Turner Field earlier today, writes Jon Cooper for MLB.com. The club is set to open SunTrust Park next season. In the meantime, they’ll try to rapidly rebuild in time for the new park. Here’s more about the Braves and other NL East clubs:
- Freddie Freeman is finally pain free, he told reporters including Cooper. The lefty first baseman has dealt with a slow to heal right wrist injury. He managed a career worst 481 plate appearances last season, although he still hit reasonably well – .276/.370/.471 with 18 home runs. While many thought the Braves would trade Freeman, he’s still just 26. If the club turns around as quickly as they aim to, he’ll still be in his prime.
- Another injured Brave, Jace Peterson, is also once again pain free, reports David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Peterson injured his thumb in late May and played through the injury for the remainder of the season. His .265/.340/.318 line wasn’t exactly setting the world on fire when he sustained the injury. However, it was slightly better than the .230/.305/.341 slash he put up over the rest of the season. Peterson has an interesting blend of skills. He could eventually develop into a sneaky-good utility player. He’s currently atop the depth chart at second base.
- Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez hinted that we’ll see top prospect Dansby Swanson sooner rather than later, per a report in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Braves shortstop Erick Aybar is under contract through the end of this season. In my view, the club may be hoping Swanson can advanced quickly enough to join the team in early 2017 – if not sooner. After signing with the Diamondbacks last summer, Swanson had 99 plate appearances in Low-A, hitting .289/.394/.482. The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the makings of a fast moving prospect. He was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona.
- Former Phillies ace Cole Hamels recently had the opportunity to meet with potential first draft pick Jason Groome, writes Matt Gelb of Philly.com. Of course, the Phillies hold that first overall selection and are said to be considering Groome. The 17-year-old New Jersey native already possesses mid-90s velocity with a promising curve and changeup. Hamels had simply advice for Groome: “stay healthy and you are going to be golden.” Of course, Hamels also had some more actionable advice. He offered the contact information of a motivational speaker he regularly talks to before starts.
- Earlier today on MLB Network Radio, Drew Storen‘s agent Brodie Van Wagenen said he and Nationals GM Mike Rizzo had a “unique level of transparency” following the trade for Jonathan Papelbon. The deal was not the first time the Nationals opted to replace Storen as the closer. The meaning behind Van Wagenen’s comment is somewhat vague. Presumably, both agent and GM had a candid talk about Storen’s role in the organization. Now Storen is turning the page as a member of the Blue Jays.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
Arbitration Breakdown: Dallas Keuchel, Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Just like last year, our arbitration model expects three pitchers to break the decade-old record for starting pitchers reaching their first-year of eligibility for arbitration. As is generally the case, these pitchers are excellent extension candidates, and extensions are a big part of the reason why Dontrelle Willis’ $4.35MM arbitration salary from 2006 has stood this long as the record.
In reality, the record really should have been broken several times already. Most notably, Tim Lincecum was offered $8MM in 2010 when he requested $13MM upon exchanging figures with the Giants. He ultimately earned $9MM as part of a multi-year deal, but Willis’ record technically still stood, because Lincecum had not signed a one-year deal. Clayton Kershaw in 2012 was offered $6.5MM when requesting $10MM and ultimately signed a multi-year deal, giving him $7.75MM his first year. Just last year, one of the three pitchers projected to break Willis’ record, Lance Lynn, made $7MM as part of a multi-year deal, although it is less clear he would have earned that much had he not signed his three-year deal.
The strongest of the three cases this year is that of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Dallas Keuchel. He went 20-8 in 2015 with a 2.48 in 232 innings. The only other two platform-year Cy Young winners in recent history have been Lincecum and Kershaw, but both of them clearly had stronger careers than Keuchel before winning their Cy Young Awards. Lincecum had a 2.90 career ERA and Kershaw’s career ERA was 2.88, while Keuchel only has a 3.58 career ERA and was at 4.16 before his Cy Young season. Similarly, Lincecum was 40-17 career at the time, and Kershaw was 42-28, while Keuchel is only 41-35.
In addition to Keuchel, two other pitchers are projected to top the $4.35MM record for first-time eligible starting pitchers. Shelby Miller only went 6-17 in 2015, but his 3.02 ERA in 205 1/3 innings in his All-Star platform year, along with his 3.22 career ERA in 575 1/3 innings give him a strong projection anyway. Matt Harvey went 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA in 189 1/3 innings in his platform year, and he has a 25-18 career record with a 2.53 career ERA in 427 innings. While Keuchel is projected to earn $6.4MM, Miller is projected to earn $4.9MM, and Harvey is projected to earn $4.7MM .
Despite no hurler topping Willis’ $4.35MM record, a number of pitchers have gotten very close in recent years. Five players in the last six years have landed between $4MM and $4.35MM on one-year deals, and many more have received multi-year deals. Comparing Keuchel, Miller, and Harvey with these five hurlers, along with a few other players who fell just short of $4MM will help figure out whether our projection for these pitchers is appropriate.
Keuchel seems like a safe bet to break the $4.35MM record if he does have a one-year award or goes to a hearing. David Price, who tied Willis’ $4.35MM record, was 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 224 1/3 innings in his platform year, which Keuchel bested in each category. Keuchel also has the same number of wins as Price did for his career at the time (41) and a similar ERA (3.38 for Price, 3.58 for Keuchel). Strengthening Keuchel’s argument is the fact that Price had nearly 100 fewer career innings when he tied Willis’ record.
Chris Tillman, who earned $4.32MM last year, did so after a 13-6 record with 3.34 ERA in his platform year and only a 4.00 career ERA with 45 career wins. Keuchel clearly should out-earn Tillman, Price and Willis handily, although he is likely to fall short of the respective $8MM and $6.5MM figures that were offered to Kershaw and Lincecum prior to their multi-year deals. I suspect Keuchel will miss the $6.4MM projection, but could easily get close to $6MM — comfortably establishing a new record.
Shelby Miller may have a harder time hitting his projection. I suspect that the model is struggling to find pitchers with an ERA as good and with as many innings who did not have many wins. A couple of recent comparables emerge, both of which had single-digit wins in their platform year with low ERAs. Stephen Strasburg in 2014 earned $3.97MM a couple years ago after going 8-9 with a 3.00 ERA in his platform year, but his 183 innings that year are short of Miller’s 205, and Miller’s 575 career innings handily top Strasburg’s 434.
Travis Wood earned $3.9MM two years ago with a 9-12 platform year record, 200 platform year innings and 564 career innings, although his career ERA was 3.83. Miller easily bests that mark with 3.22. Their platform year ERAs were similar, however, with Wood at 3.11 and Miller at 3.02. Miller also struck out a few more hitters than Wood had. Overall, both Strasburg and Wood getting just shy of $4MM two years ago with worse pre-platform performances suggests that Miller should get over $4MM, even if his $4.9MM projection will be harder to land. Most likely, he will end up between $4MM and the $4.35MM record, unless Keuchel or Harvey re-sets the market and pushes his number upward.
It’s difficult to find comparables for Harvey, partly because of his injuries and partly because his playoff performance in 2015 could help his case. Cole Hamels’ case after his 2008 playoff success (although he was the World Series MVP) would have been a good match, even though it is stale, but he signed a multi-year deal instead. He did earn $4.35MM in a multi-year deal that could be a useful comparison. Hamels similarly did not have many platform year wins despite a strong ERA — he went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA, which compares somewhat favorably to Harvey’s 13-8 with 2.71. Hamels did have 227 innings though, compared with Harvey’s 189. On the other hand, Harvey’s 2.53 career ERA clearly outdoes the 3.43 ERA held by Hamels at the time.
Mike Minor got a one-year deal for $3.85MM a couple years ago after going 13-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 204 2/3 innings, although his 3.90 career ERA is clearly worse than Harvey’s. However, his 507 1/3 career innings at the time exceed Harvey’s 427.
It is not too challenging to make a case that David Price’s numbers when he got $4.35MM are similar to Miller and Harvey. Both Miller and Harvey possess superior ERA marks, although they each also had fewer innings. Harvey’s record was better (13-8 versus 12-13) but Miller’s was worse (6-17). Price’s 3.38 career ERA was similar to Miller’s 3.22, but Harvey’s 2.53 is better. On the other hand, Price and Miller had matching innings totals, while Harvey was about 150 innings short.
It does not seem obvious that Harvey or Miller can top the Price/Willis record, so I suspect both of them will end up in the $4MM to $4.35MM range. Obviously, if Keuchel shatters Price’s record in advance, Harvey or Miller could have a better opportunity to top that figure themselves, but I would bet the model’s projections for this pair ultimately proves to be too high.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Cubs’ Search For Outfielders
The Cubs are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder Denard Span, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Chicago is also continuing to pursue Jason Heyward, Heyman adds, as has been reported previously.
Span comes to the free agent market offering the upside of a high-quality regular at a reduced asking price. He’s nearing 32 years of age and, more importantly, has dealt with fairly significant core muscle and back issues.
But Span has been excellent when healthy, slashing a combined .301/.358/.421 over the past two seasons with 42 stolen bases in 943 plate appearances. He could provide a near-term replacement for fellow free agent Dexter Fowler in center.
It’s not immediately clear whether the team has any inclination to add multiple outfielders. Notably, the addition of Ben Zobrist provides another outfield-capable player to the mix.
If Chicago were to add multiple outfielders, that would certainly seem likely to be done in concert with a trade involving one or more of the team’s current players. Per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter), Chicago was second in the bidding for Shelby Miller and was willing to send Jorge Soler to Atlanta. That doesn’t mean that Soler is being shopped around, of course, but does suggest that the club feels comfortable parting with him in the right scenario.
Diamondbacks Acquire Shelby Miller
WEDNESDAY: The teams have officially announced the deal.
TUESDAY: After more than a week of rampant speculation, the Shelby Miller blockbuster that many anticipated has arrived. The Braves on Tuesday reportedly agreed to send Miller and left-handed relief prospect Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks in exchange for outfielder Ender Inciarte, right-handed pitching prospect Aaron Blair and shortstop prospect Dansby Swanson, the latter of whom was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft back in June.
Miller, 25, has been one of the hottest commodities on the trade market for the past seven to 10 days. The D-backs will control him for at least three seasons via the arbitration process — he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn just under $5MM next season — and he’ll give Arizona another potent arm to pair with Patrick Corbin and newly signed ace Zack Greinke atop a dramatically improved rotation.
As many as 20 teams reportedly checked in on Miller, who will ultimately spend just one year in Atlanta after being the main piece received in last winter’s Jason Heyward blockbuster with the Cardinals. The former first-round pick and top 10 prospect enjoyed a strong season in 2015 with the Braves, compiling a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in a career-high 205 2/3 innings. It should be noted, though, that Miller’s dominant overall numbers are propped up, to some extent, by an unsustainable 1.48 ERA through his first 10 starts. While Miller was still very solid after that stretch — he logged a 3.77 ERA with a 122-to-55 K/BB ratio across his final 138 1/3 frames — fielding-independent-pitching metrics peg him as more of a mid- to upper-3.00s ERA type of pitcher. Whether he looks more like the front-line arm he appeared to be in 2015 or the steady mid-rotation arm those metrics peg him to be, Miller unequivocally has value, but the Diamondbacks have indeed paid a steep price to acquire his services.
Inciarte (pictured below) is the Major League ready piece of the deal for Atlanta. He’ll bring five years of club control to the Braves and can immediately slot into center field there, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. Inciarte, 25, was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015. Inciarte is an elite defender at any of the three outfield spots; he’s amassed 52 Defensive Runs Saved in just 1972 innings at the Major League level or, if you prefer, +33.7 runs, per Ultimate Zone Rating. While he lacks much in the way of power and may see his surface-level rate stats decline by moving away from the hitters’ haven that is Phoenix’s Chase Field, Inciarte will help the Braves’ chances both in 2016 and into the next planned phase of the team’s status as contenders.
Swanson, 22 in February, is barely six months removed from being the first overall pick in the 2015 draft. A shortstop out of Vanderbilt, Swanson spent the summer playing with Arizona’s short-season Class-A affiliate in Hillsboro, where he batted .289/.394/.482 in 22 games/99 plate appearances. His inclusion significantly enhances the deal for Atlanta, who recently parted ways with shortstop Andrelton Simmons. While Swanson won’t be ready to jump to the Majors in 2016 — at least not early on — he gives the Braves a potential Simmons replacement at some point in the 2017 or 2018 season and joins 18-year-old (19 in January) Ozhaino Albies as an elite shortstop prospect rising through the ranks of the Atlanta farm system.
MLB.com rated Swanson as the No. 10 prospect in all of Major League Baseball at the end of the season, and Swanson unsurprisingly ranked as the organization’s top prospect according to both that outlet and Baseball America. BA’s scouting report noted that Swanson has no weaknesses in his toolkit, calling him a prototypical No. 2 hitter that has 15-homer pop with plus speed and a future as a solid, if not above-average defender at shortstop. MLB.com notes that most scouts think he can stick at shortstop, adding that he has off-the-charts makeup and could be in the Majors by 2018. As a bonus for the Braves, Swanson’s Georgia roots — he attended high school in Marietta — figure to make him popular with the Atlanta fanbase.
Blair, 23, is a little more than two years removed from being a first-rounder himself (albeit, a compensatory first-round pick). Arizona selected him 36th overall in 2003, and he currently ranks 61st on MLB.com’s Top 100. BA rated him as the D-backs’ No. 2 prospect, trailing only the aforementioned Swanson. The Marshall University product split the 2015 season between Double-A and Triple-A, pitching to a combined 2.92 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. BA notes that he has a 91-95 mph heater with heavy sink that generates plenty of grounders in addition to a curveball that misses bats and a changeup that he uses to pitch to contact. MLB.com and BA both agree that Blair is nearly big league ready and should debut in 2016, with both calling him a potential mid-rotation starter.
In addition to Miller, the D-backs will receive the 20-year-old Speier, who spent this past season pitching at Class-A, where he recorded a 2.86 ERA with 7.4 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9 in 44 innings of relief work. Speier, a 19th-round pick in 2013, is already plenty familiar with being traded. He was originally selected by Boston but traded to the Tigers a year ago (almost to the day) alongside Yoenis Cespedes in exchange for Rick Porcello. Detroit shipped him to Atlanta a couple of weeks ago in the Cameron Maybin trade, and he’s now on the move for the third time in less than three full years as a pro.
By making this trade, the Diamondbacks have exhibited their clear desire to win now. The presence of Greinke, Corbin and Miller atop their rotation gives Arizona arguably the best rotation in the National League West, but the price they’ve paid is sizable. Perhaps more notably, it continues to display that GM Dave Stewart, VP De Jon Watson and chief baseball office Tony La Russa value draft picks in a considerably different manner than a number of their baseball ops peers around the league. Arizona forfeited its 2016 first-round pick in order to sign Greinke and has now traded the 2015 top pick (Swanson) in addition to its 2014 first-rounder, Touki Toussaint, in a deal that many felt amounted to a salary dump to rid themselves of Bronson Arroyo‘s contract. With this recent string of moves, the D-backs have moved three of their past four highest draft picks and foregone the right to pick 13th in next year’s draft.
Of course, Arizona will now have an impressive rotation trio to support MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt and the underrated A.J. Pollock, who will now probably share the outfield with David Peralta and Yasmany Tomas with Inciarte in Atlanta. The D-backs are aggressively branding the 2016 as an “evolutionary” year, and the moves they’ve made bear out the fact that the coming seasons will carry significantly greater expectations than the team has had in quite some time.
For the Braves, the move further adds to the ever-growing stockpile of young talent that president of baseball operations John Hart and GM John Coppolella have accumulated over the past calendar year. While the loss of Miller undeniably hurts the club’s pitching staff, one could potentially make the argument that the addition of Inciarte to the 2016 roster offsets much of the value the team is losing by subtracting Miller’s highly talented arm from the roster. And, adding a pair of high-impact prospects, one of whom (Blair) could make an impact as soon as 2016, further accelerates the rebuilding effort to align with the club’s stated desire of contending in 2017 — the first season of the newly constructed SunTrust Park.
The huge stockpile of minor league talent and the shedding of sizable financial commitments — Miller could potentially earn $8-9MM in 2017 depending on his 2016 results — will position Atlanta to be aggressive on both the trade and free-agent front. The Braves, after all, have just $46MM committed to four players in 2017 and only three that will be eligible for arbitration (none of whom should command anything close to a prohibitive salary).
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports first reported that Miller was going to Arizona (Twitter link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post added that Inciarte and others were going to Atlanta (also on Twitter). The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reported that Swanson and Blair were in the deal (Twitter link). Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reported that Speier would also go to Arizona.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Reactions To The Shelby Miller Trade
Here’s a collection of reactions to the Diamondbacks’ shocking trade of outfielder Ender Inciarte, pitching prospect Aaron Blair and 2015 No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson to the Braves for pitchers Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier.
- The Braves’ return for Miller was gigantic, ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider-only). Law notes that he’s a fan of Miller’s and that the trade and the Zack Greinke signing make the Diamondbacks much better next season, but that the price the Diamondbacks paid was “comically high.” Swanson is a polished and very talented college player who could move through the minors quickly, the way Michael Conforto and Kyle Schwarber did. Blair gets plenty of ground balls and has “a hint of Brandon Webb” to him. And Law writes that he would rather have six years of Blair or five years of Inciarte for the three years of Miller the Diamondbacks will receive.
- The deal “looks like a clear, obvious mistake” for the Diamondbacks, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan writes. If they can make the playoffs a few times or win a championship with Miller, the deal will have worked out well (as, Sullivan suggests, the Royals’ then-controversial trade for James Shields did). But Miller isn’t an ace, says Sullivan, and some of his impact will likely be muted by the loss of Inciarte in the outfield. And then there’s Swanson, who’s the kind of prospect who can be the main piece in a deal for an ace, and Blair. Arizona’s front office hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt that it can properly value its young players, Sullivan writes.
- The Diamondbacks don’t care that executives around the game think the Braves won the trade in a rout, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. (“Worst trade I’ve ever seen,” said one.) The trade helps the Diamondbacks become contenders, and with Miller joining a core that includes Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, they’re too good to become next year’s Padres — a team that swings for the fences but misses spectacularly.
- Swanson joins Adrian Gonzalez and Shawn Abner as the only first overall draft picks to be traded while still in the minors by the teams that drafted them, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo writes. (Gonzalez, the No. 1 pick in 2000, was one of three players the Marlins traded for Ugueth Urbina in 2003. The deal was a lopsided one on paper, but Urbina did help the Marlins win the World Series that year.) Swanson’s situation is unusual in that he could be traded at all — it’s been just six months since the Diamondbacks drafted him in the first place. Last December, the Padres agreed to trade Trea Turner to the Nationals as part of the Wil Myers deal, but due to a rule that draftees could not be traded until a year after they signed, he had to remain in the Padres organization until June. MLB changed that rule so that newly drafted players could be traded after the World Series, and Swanson is just the second player to be traded under those circumstances, following pitcher Logan Allen, who went from Boston to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel deal.
Pitching Notes: Rangers, Giants, Maeda, Chapman, Stammen, Jays, Pirates, Okajima
It appears the Rangers are at least looking into an impactful pitching addition. MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan says (Twitter links) that the club has pursued Jose Fernandez, Shelby Miller, and Drew Smyly on the trade market, but “couldn’t make headway” on any of those players. The club is, however, holding a line of dialogue with the Indians on their rotation arms. Meanwhile, Texas has “neither funds nor interest level” to take a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports on Twitter.
Here’s more on the pitching market:
- The Giants have some interest in Maeda, skipper Bruce Bochy told reporters including John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter link). And the team has scouted him previously in Japan, colleague Henry Schulman adds on Twitter. Of course, Bochy also added that the club expects Maeda to draw wide interest, and didn’t make clear just how strong of a draw he represents.
- With uncertainty abounding, the Dodgers are holding internal discussions on what to do about the team’s prospective trade for Reds lefty Aroldis Chapman, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports via Twitter. It’s possible that the club could “pivot” to some other acquisition targets or that it might allow the situation to play out before committing in either direction, he adds.
- Recently non-tendered righty Craig Stammen is “100% recovered” from his arm surgery, a source tells MLBTR’s Zach Links (via) Twitter. Stammen, a stalwart of the Nationals pen for several years, was non-tendered recently. He’ll be entering his age-32 season after producing a 2.88 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 in 246 2/3 innings over 2012-15.
- The Blue Jays are considering an array of options as they look at pen additions, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets. Toronto is considering everything from the best remaining free agent relievers to “bounce-back types,” he says.
- While a lefty reliever isn’t the Pirates‘ top priority, the team has reached to free agent Matt Thornton, Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter.
- The Pirates have shown interest in free agenty righty Kyle Kendrick, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports (via Twitter). Kendrick struggled last year for the Rockies, but he’s still just 31 years old and has had success at times in a swingman capacity. Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review broke down the Bucs’ efforts to find starters in a piece yesterday.
- Japanese reliever Hideki Okajima is eyeing a return to the majors for his age-40 campaign, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com tweets. The long-time Red Sox southpaw last appeared in the bigs in 2013 with the Athletics and has played in Japan for the last two years.
Cubs, Diamondbacks No Longer In Mix For Shelby Miller
Shelby Miller is still an Atlanta Brave as of this morning, though trade winds are swirling around the right-hander. Here’s the latest…
- While the Orioles have inquired on Miller, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links), there does not appear to be a match since Atlanta obviously seems to be angling for bats.
- The Cubs are also “not currently in [the] mix” for Miller, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets, joining Arizona in that regard. While the Dodgers have had conversations with the Braves, it’s “unclear” where they stand, per Rosenthal.
- The Diamondbacks appear to have “moved their attention away” from Miller, Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets. There are still multiple clubs involved on the righty, however, Bowman adds.
Earlier Updates
- The Braves reportedly made progress on a Miller deal and a trade could happen as soon as today, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets (and expands upon further in a report today). Braves management met “late into [the] night” discussing Miller.
- The Diamondbacks are still hopeful they’ll be the team to obtain Miller today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (Twitter link). Atlanta and Arizona have had several talks about Miller, though the D’Backs have turned down at least two offers that would’ve sent A.J. Pollock to the Braves.